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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden pushed into third place in Iowa – the first state to dec

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden pushed into third place in Iowa – the first state to decide

NEW IOWA poll from @davidbinder , via @linkiowa pro-ethanol group, shows a wiiiide open caucus after the first debate:

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,686
    First!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    Scott_P said:
    See 101 lessons not learned from 2017.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 114
    edited July 3
    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the Tory faithful will love that, so it's a pretty smart move from Hunt. If he wins it won't ever happen of course.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    CatMan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the Tory faithful will love that, so it's a pretty smart move from Hunt. If he wins it won't ever happen of course.
    But it will dog his footsteps in reaching out to the non-aligned. Which is meant to be his USP.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    CatMan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the Tory faithful will love that, so it's a pretty smart move from Hunt. If he wins it won't ever happen of course.
    I'm not sure it will be that popular - even with Tory members. Most of them are urban. And they can see a stinker of a policy when it trundles into view.

    It smacks of total desperation. Hunt is losing BADLY.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,308
    Is polling a caucus harder, even, than polling a poll?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,037
    G
    Byronic said:

    CatMan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the Tory faithful will love that, so it's a pretty smart move from Hunt. If he wins it won't ever happen of course.
    I'm not sure it will be that popular - even with Tory members. Most of them are urban. And they can see a stinker of a policy when it trundles into view.

    It smacks of total desperation. Hunt is losing BADLY.
    It’s also in The Telegraph so it’s probably untrue and aiming to damage him relative to Johnson.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,711
    Sleazy broken Labour heading to single figures.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,750
    Told you to lay the oldies in this market. Never in doubt.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    Corbyn's Leaverism is utterly DESTROYING Labour. They might never recover.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    matt said:

    G

    Byronic said:

    CatMan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the Tory faithful will love that, so it's a pretty smart move from Hunt. If he wins it won't ever happen of course.
    I'm not sure it will be that popular - even with Tory members. Most of them are urban. And they can see a stinker of a policy when it trundles into view.

    It smacks of total desperation. Hunt is losing BADLY.
    It’s also in The Telegraph so it’s probably untrue and aiming to damage him relative to Johnson.
    Yes, I agree.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 25,780
    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    TGOHF said:

    Sleazy broken Labour heading to single figures.

    Corbyn's anything but a single figure. He's famously nearly as insatiable as Boris.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,686
    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    Maybe they should send for George Clooney, he like Trump has name recognition and Clooney cannot be any worse than Trump. There are other prominent Democrat celebrities that could run like Oprah Winfrey who with the right team around them could oust Trump I am sure. They need a figurehead to rally around, surely the Democrats can find one? Failing that Bloomberg would be a good independent candidate as he has business and public administration experience and very deep pockets!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Harris v Buttigieg would be an interesting match up.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    Put yourself in John McDonnell's mind tonight. He is a convinced hard lefty. He is smart, and cunning. He is willing to do anything - lie, betray, lie, murder red squirrels - to get a hard left government in the UK.

    He thought Corbyn was the vehicle, but it is now clear Corbyn is an obstacle, and Labour needs a friendly Remainy face (a face which is secretly hard left as well).

    Does he make a move? How does he do it? The prize is slipping away.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    edited July 3
    Byronic said:

    Put yourself in John McDonnell's mind tonight. He is a convinced hard lefty. He is smart, and cunning. He is willing to do anything - lie, betray, lie, murder red squirrels - to get a hard left government in the UK.

    He thought Corbyn was the vehicle, but it is now clear Corbyn is an obstacle, and Labour needs a friendly Remainy face (a face which is secretly hard left as well).

    Does he make a move? How does he do it? The prize is slipping away.....

    Macdonnell would never, ever do such a thing.

    He'd only murder bourgeois grey squirrels.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,037
    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 30,634
    Byronic said:
    6 months is an extremely long time in politics...
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    Scott_P said:
    Sigh. Is that really the only way he can grab the attention of the Tory membership?
    Byronic said:

    Corbyn's Leaverism is utterly DESTROYING Labour. They might never recover.

    Course they will. Though no matter how leavey his instincts I am astonished he has not just been unequivocal for referendum and remain already. Yeah yeah, all that stuff about his consistency and leave support, but he already bent on that by voting remain (or saying he did - in the absence of proof I see no reason to disbelieve him).

    That said, it is pretty hilarious to see the British public stir into life once the extension kicked in, and finally notice 'Oh hey, did you know there is a centrish-lefty party that is backing us staying in the EU wholeheartedly? I never realised it, let's back them'.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,308
    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 114
    Byronic said:

    Put yourself in John McDonnell's mind tonight. He is a convinced hard lefty. He is smart, and cunning. He is willing to do anything - lie, betray, lie, murder red squirrels - to get a hard left government in the UK.

    He thought Corbyn was the vehicle, but it is now clear Corbyn is an obstacle, and Labour needs a friendly Remainy face (a face which is secretly hard left as well).

    Does he make a move? How does he do it? The prize is slipping away.....

    Byronic said:

    Put yourself in John McDonnell's mind tonight. He is a convinced hard lefty. He is smart, and cunning. He is willing to do anything - lie, betray, lie, murder red squirrels - to get a hard left government in the UK.

    He thought Corbyn was the vehicle, but it is now clear Corbyn is an obstacle, and Labour needs a friendly Remainy face (a face which is secretly hard left as well).

    Does he make a move? How does he do it? The prize is slipping away.....

    My understanding (From a Radio 4 documentary) is that Corbyn and McDonnell are very good friends. Doesn't mean McDonnell wouldn't throw him under the bus of course, but I would guess that Corbyn would throw his weight to Remain (even if he's really a leaver at heart) if he thinks it would help him to win the next election.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,037
    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.
    You mean Skid Row wasn’t groundbreaking excellence, music for the ages?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    edited July 3
    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    CatMan said:

    Byronic said:

    Put yourself in John McDonnell's mind tonight. He is a convinced hard lefty. He is smart, and cunning. He is willing to do anything - lie, betray, lie, murder red squirrels - to get a hard left government in the UK.

    He thought Corbyn was the vehicle, but it is now clear Corbyn is an obstacle, and Labour needs a friendly Remainy face (a face which is secretly hard left as well).

    Does he make a move? How does he do it? The prize is slipping away.....

    Byronic said:

    Put yourself in John McDonnell's mind tonight. He is a convinced hard lefty. He is smart, and cunning. He is willing to do anything - lie, betray, lie, murder red squirrels - to get a hard left government in the UK.

    He thought Corbyn was the vehicle, but it is now clear Corbyn is an obstacle, and Labour needs a friendly Remainy face (a face which is secretly hard left as well).

    Does he make a move? How does he do it? The prize is slipping away.....

    My understanding (From a Radio 4 documentary) is that Corbyn and McDonnell are very good friends. Doesn't mean McDonnell wouldn't throw him under the bus of course, but I would guess that Corbyn would throw his weight to Remain (even if he's really a leaver at heart) if he thinks it would help him to win the next election.
    They've been inching their way agonisingly slowly. The question for me is, when they finally, finally, get there, will enough Labour support return despite annoyance it took him that long, fearing a Con/BXP (as if there is a difference anymore) win if they do not? Last time despite Corbyn's poor starting ratings a good campaign and fear of a Tory majority saw them return to the fold in massive numbers. Have Labour really gone too far, such that people will risk a Tory government again?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    Aren't YouGov typically showing lower Lab ratings than the others?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    edited July 3
    dixiedean said:
    It's a misunderstanding, based on his proposed cabinet.

    Hunt and Fox...
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sigh. Is that really the only way he can grab the attention of the Tory membership?
    Byronic said:

    Corbyn's Leaverism is utterly DESTROYING Labour. They might never recover.

    Course they will. Though no matter how leavey his instincts I am astonished he has not just been unequivocal for referendum and remain already. Yeah yeah, all that stuff about his consistency and leave support, but he already bent on that by voting remain (or saying he did - in the absence of proof I see no reason to disbelieve him).

    That said, it is pretty hilarious to see the British public stir into life once the extension kicked in, and finally notice 'Oh hey, did you know there is a centrish-lefty party that is backing us staying in the EU wholeheartedly? I never realised it, let's back them'.
    I have no idea where your certainty comes from. Everyone said the same about Scottish Labour - that they would recover: Why would they not? They'd been dominant in Scotland for EVER - the SNP was an aberration, the Tories were the doomed party...

    And here we are. The Indyref changed everything. The SNP are now the dominant Scottish centre-left party, and the Tories have seized the role of centre-right Unionism. There is no room for Labour, and there is no obvious return path to power, for them.

    Why should England/Wales be different to Scotland, following another game-changing referendum?

    It is clear one party will seize the mantle of centre-left Remainerism, and oppose the Brexiteers; it is far from clear why this should obviously be Labour.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,686
    edited July 3
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    Joe Kennedy III:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    Scott_P said:
    That insider care to be a big boy or girl and go on the record about that? Or despite their complaints are they in effect acknowledging the members would still back Corbyn and they will continue to campaign for him and his policies?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    Provided BXP don’t acquire a liking for it.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    Joe Kennedy III:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III
    That’s a dynasty that would even make Labour blush.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sigh. Is that really the only way he can grab the attention of the Tory membership?
    Byronic said:

    Corbyn's Leaverism is utterly DESTROYING Labour. They might never recover.

    Course they will. Though no matter how leavey his instincts I am astonished he has not just been unequivocal for referendum and remain already. Yeah yeah, all that stuff about his consistency and leave support, but he already bent on that by voting remain (or saying he did - in the absence of proof I see no reason to disbelieve him).

    That said, it is pretty hilarious to see the British public stir into life once the extension kicked in, and finally notice 'Oh hey, did you know there is a centrish-lefty party that is backing us staying in the EU wholeheartedly? I never realised it, let's back them'.
    I have no idea where your certainty comes from. Everyone said the same about Scottish Labour - that they would recover: Why would they not? They'd been dominant in Scotland for EVER - the SNP was an aberration, the Tories were the doomed party...

    And here we are. The Indyref changed everything. The SNP are now the dominant Scottish centre-left party, and the Tories have seized the role of centre-right Unionism. There is no room for Labour, and there is no obvious return path to power, for them.

    Why should England/Wales be different to Scotland, following another game-changing referendum?

    It is clear one party will seize the mantle of centre-left Remainerism, and oppose the Brexiteers; it is far from clear why this should obviously be Labour.
    I'm not actually as certain as I sound. I think both Labour and, even more, the Tories are closer than they have been in a long long time to fundamental realignments breaking them.

    But I struggle to see who is replacing Labour in many places in England. Are the LDs really about to make a breakthrough in all those hardcore Labour inner cities? When you consider how so many of its MPs and others are acting as though they are already the remain party, and ire is being increasingly focused on the person of Corbyn, I retain skepticism that many will not flock back to Labour if it replaces him with someone with the 'correct' view on the EU, particularly when they would have to look very hard in the mirror and say they are prepared to risk yet another Tory win (or BXP/Tory win again, there's no difference between them on the Brexit issue anymore).

    Who are England's the SNP?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939
    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.

    The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,308
    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.

    I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    notme2 said:

    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.

    The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
    Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939

    Byronic said:
    6 months is an extremely long time in politics...

    It’s almost as if not carrying out a referendum result would be consequence free.. I remember the scoffing on here about old people and their Zimmer frames, going on strike by not using their free bus passes...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    If Warren wins Iowa then she has a good chance of winning New Hampshire and becoming nominee even if Biden wins South Carolina
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,686
    notme2 said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    Joe Kennedy III:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III
    That’s a dynasty that would even make Labour blush.
    The republicans don't contest the seat he represents in some elections! Mind you he is in public life and so is obviously willing to take the risk of potential threats to his life so he might be a good candidate in 2024 and beyond for higher status office like Senator or Governor. He has ruled out going for any other elected office at the moment but surely he will have a crack in the future. I think he would need something where he has executive experience rather than just a representative track record.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939
    CatMan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the Tory faithful will love that, so it's a pretty smart move from Hunt. If he wins it won't ever happen of course.

    You think? The world has moved on. And while I don’t think fox hunting should be against the law, I don’t see how rescinding the legislation will be seen as anything but a monumental FU to city dwellers and the young.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    Byronic said:
    Catastrophe for Labour, being squeezed by both the Brexit Party in Leave areas and the LDs in Remain areas and polling almost 10% worse under Corbyn than even Michael Foot got in 1983
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    notme2 said:

    CatMan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the Tory faithful will love that, so it's a pretty smart move from Hunt. If he wins it won't ever happen of course.

    You think? The world has moved on. And while I don’t think fox hunting should be against the law, I don’t see how rescinding the legislation will be seen as anything but a monumental FU to city dwellers and the young.
    Can he not just promise them a free vote on it or will that not buy off the country squires anymore?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Farage PM, Boris Deputy PM?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,801
    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    edited July 3
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    edited July 3
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    Yes, Congressman Joseph P Kennedy III, Bobby Kennedy's grandson, is hotly tipped for 2024 if Trump is re elected.

    He is close to Warren though so will likely back her this time (much as Obama backed Kerry in 2004)


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939
    Byronic said:

    notme2 said:

    Byronic said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    First!

    Like Donald Trump if this carries on - God help us.

    Why can't the Democrats move on from these has-beens and rally around someone who can beat the orangutan?
    There must be a living Kennedy who’s more than good teeth and haircut. There are enough of them.
    There isn't. Regression to the mean. For the same reason, there are no Bachs composing fabulous music.

    The Thatchers managed it in a single generation.
    Most families manage it in a single generation. That's genetics, geniuses are rare, most talents are not heritable.
    It depends if their talents come from strong cultural capital in the family. Not unusual for children to follow in the professions of their parents. A pair of doctors aren’t going to be giving birth to a future checkout assistant at Asda.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838
    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.

    I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
    In a normal era, a poll like this would end the LOTO's career tomorrow.

    When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,506
    kle4 said:

    Aren't YouGov typically showing lower Lab ratings than the others?

    Yes. Labour hold the lead in the most recent polls from Opinium, Survation, ComRes, BMG and DeltaPoll with mighty scores of 26, 26, 27, 27 and 26 respectively - though the last of these is from May. So a bit old.

    Still. To equal their May 2009 nadir is quite some achievement.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    He can't keep his hands of that magic money tree can he?

    How on earth are the Tories going to use the old Labour tax bombshell playbook after this campaign? I wouldn't be surprised if Boris has actually spent more than McDonnell.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939
    Scott_P said:
    And neither our society or economy are broken.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,786
    Byronic said:
    On these figures, the Lib Dems should go into an electoral pact with the Greens. They would clean up.

    The BP and Cons would clean up even more in a pact, but it's win/lose for them. The Conservatives have too many MPs to lose and the agendas are different enough that it would probably destroy their party.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,310

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.

    I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
    In a normal era, a poll like this would end the LOTO's career tomorrow.

    When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
    Because they think they will make up 20 points in a GE campaign like last time. That’s what they are clinging onto.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838
    Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,801
    Just enjoying watching the cricket again after watching most of it live earlier. New Zealand really were poor today. You have to feel for Pakistan, they’ve played some good cricket and turned over some good teams. Why don’t the ICC use head to head as first tiebreaker when teams are equal on points?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939
    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    I’ve recently been to a hustings with Boris and Hunt. Both of them were really good. Excellent on ideas, detail, pitfalls and the direction we need to go. Hunt was utterly superb in how he presented himself, Boris was Boris. But he also was very very good.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.

    I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
    In a normal era, a poll like this would end the LOTO's career tomorrow.

    When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
    Because they think they will make up 20 points in a GE campaign like last time. That’s what they are clinging onto.
    Desperate. Those new LibDems voters clearly aren't coming back.

    Jezza will have to have 'People's Vote' tattooed across his forehead in block capitals to turn this around.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    Scott_P said:
    Bang goes the idea Hunt is a more popular choice with the public thsn Boris then.

    I also know at least 1 Tory member who is a Remainer and Association Chairman and might have voted for Hunt but is very anti fox hunting, this probably pushes him towards Boris
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,940
    I would have thought many Con members might be put off by Hunt re foxhunting.

    Forget the merits of the issue - Con members number 1 priority is to win the GE. And legalising foxhunting will cost votes for certain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.

    I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
    In a normal era, a poll like this would end the LOTO's career tomorrow.

    When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
    Because they think they will make up 20 points in a GE campaign like last time. That’s what they are clinging onto.
    Indeed. There's certainly no guarantee they will do that, but in fairness given very few people expected them to do it last time, why would the massed ranks of the membership react at all to such polls? I suppose that they are losing ground to the LDs rather than merely trailing the Tories is more concerning for them, but unless Corbyn simply refuses to go full remain, he's got to be safe.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838
    The revolution burns on. As the polling collapses. But do carry on comrades.

  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,801
    edited July 3
    Hunt: The unelectable in pursuit of the inedible.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,955

    Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.

    No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,310
    kle4 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.

    I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
    In a normal era, a poll like this would end the LOTO's career tomorrow.

    When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
    Because they think they will make up 20 points in a GE campaign like last time. That’s what they are clinging onto.
    Indeed. There's certainly no guarantee they will do that, but in fairness given very few people expected them to do it last time, why would the massed ranks of the membership react at all to such polls? I suppose that they are losing ground to the LDs rather than merely trailing the Tories is more concerning for them, but unless Corbyn simply refuses to go full remain, he's got to be safe.
    They also think that YouGov is one whole ‘MSM’ Tory conspiracy...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    He really has got the papers sewn up. They either love him, or they loathe him, and were never going to love him.

    Clunk the seatbelt, we're all going for a ride.
    I think the spirit of these times would demand that we ride at full speed, after cutting the seatbelt to pieces.
    I agree, I'm well ready for the Boris J roller-coaster. We are now so fucked there is no unfucking it, so we might as well go fucking ballistic, and let the world fuck itself, or not, whatever the fuck, who fucking cares anymore. As Shakespeare so aptly put it.

    Fire up the Quattro, Bojo.

    One thing you can say for Bojo, at least most of the world will know who our PM is which is more than can be said for Theresa
    Why does that matter? What benefit is gained from more of the world knowing who our PM is?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 47,080
    This would be hilarious, when Liz or The Saj have to call them...

  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 102
    rcs1000 said:

    I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Biden won't even make it to the Iowa caucuses.

    He's only gotten this far because: (a) he did really well with Black Democrats who remember him as Obama's VP, and (b) because people think he's going to win.

    Kamala Harris is taking the Black vote and the aura is beginning to evaporate. Plus, Biden does not look like he's enjoying the campaign very much. Oh yeah, and he doesn't have a very good ground operation.

    I foresee only half a dozen candidates making it to Iowa: Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, and perhaps two others (O'Rourke being the most likely tier three candidate to make it - and I'd tip him as the VP pick, assuming either Warren or Harris is the nominee).

    My money is on Sanders withdrawing after losing Iowa and New Hampshire.

    But I guess we'll see...

    Do you anticipate it ending up between warren an Harris, and Harris getting the nomination?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838
    kle4 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.

    I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
    In a normal era, a poll like this would end the LOTO's career tomorrow.

    When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
    Because they think they will make up 20 points in a GE campaign like last time. That’s what they are clinging onto.
    Indeed. There's certainly no guarantee they will do that, but in fairness given very few people expected them to do it last time, why would the massed ranks of the membership react at all to such polls? I suppose that they are losing ground to the LDs rather than merely trailing the Tories is more concerning for them, but unless Corbyn simply refuses to go full remain, he's got to be safe.
    I suggest these members knock on a few doors and find the burning anger of Remainers who feel let down by Labour's constant fence sitting.

    As Nick Cohen has said, the anger 'aint all in the BXP/Brexiteer wing of this debate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,883
    Biden is also third in the betting and ahead in a couple of other Iowa polls.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 4,940
    I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.

    Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.

    In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:

    Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838
    Scott_P said:

    This would be hilarious, when Liz or The Saj have to call them...

    Last week he was about to become an MP again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,948
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:
    It's a misunderstanding, based on his proposed cabinet.

    Hunt and Fox...
    It would have been a great answer

    Q. Do you intend to legalise fox hunting?

    A. Liam is a great friend of mine. Next question please

    Q. But...

    A. Sorry, 1 question only...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,310
    edited July 3
    I personally think a reasonable percentage of people will refuse to say they support Labour but would still vote for them... 🤷‍♂️
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,801
    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    MikeL said:

    I don't understand the Electoral Calculus seat projection on tonight's YouGov.

    Is it really likely that the BRX vote will be more efficiently distributed than the Con vote? Surely all history of 3rd parties tells us this isn't the case.

    In contrast Flavible seat projection for tonight's YouGov is:

    Con 202, BRX 160, Lab 119, LD 96 - which looks far more realistic.

    More Tories vote BXP than Tory thesedays, that might account for it. But I think everyone accepts there's just no way to have a sound prediction from scores like these.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698

    Pro_Rata said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Byronic said:
    Electoral Calculus is horrible for these numbers:

    BXP 207
    CON 160
    LAB 150
    LD 71

    BXP / CON with 100+ majority for, one imagines, a very limited program.

    Such a result would surely also be a killer blow for FPTP. But I somehow think that at hese numbers all guesses are mug's games.
    I think what Electoral Calculus does go to show, varying wildly between different polls just a few percent apart, is that an election fought on a backdrop of current numbers would be wildly unpredictable, as we are close to so many pivot points.

    I still think it likeliest that LDs score in the 50ish MP range, and Brexit in the couple of dozen, and that Labour wlli benefit from FPTP more than the Tories at these levels, but that could just be a natural instinct to go against predicting the extremer outcomes. Who knows?
    In a normal era, a poll like this would end the LOTO's career tomorrow.

    When are Labour members and union activists going to wake up? Jezza is leading you to total defeat.
    Because they think they will make up 20 points in a GE campaign like last time. That’s what they are clinging onto.
    Desperate. Those new LibDems voters clearly aren't coming back.

    Jezza will have to have 'People's Vote' tattooed across his forehead in block capitals to turn this around.
    I've heard rumours that the Corbyn-is-unwell anecdotes are not entirely unsubstantiated. So there might be a vacancy soon-ish.

    It will be a fascinating struggle. The Tories should be scared. All Labour needs is a decent enough leader with a believable Remainer background and they will sweep to a large polling lead.

    Of course Labour might persist with their insanity, and then who knows.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,637
    HYUFD said:


    Farage PM, Boris Deputy PM?

    On those numbers Boris would have lost half his MPs, an even lower total than Hague, the worst result for the party since 1906 (and Balfour got 43% of the vote)

    He'd be done, a laughing stock, and have to resign.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939

    kle4 said:

    Aren't YouGov typically showing lower Lab ratings than the others?

    Yes. Labour hold the lead in the most recent polls from Opinium, Survation, ComRes, BMG and DeltaPoll with mighty scores of 26, 26, 27, 27 and 26 respectively - though the last of these is from May. So a bit old.

    Still. To equal their May 2009 nadir is quite some achievement.
    A different leader and a convincing argued position on brexit, why they feel we need a second go etc. 50% plus..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838

    Surely Watson will find support now to make the move against the allotment holder? Even the diehards must know the game is up.

    No chance. They’ll double down and focus on deselections. Corbyn will never be removed. Having him as leader is far more important to most Labour members than defeating the English nationalist hard right.

    The cure will be an election wipe out I suppose.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,948
    Scott_P said:
    Is she really only 31?

    She looks... worn
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 698
    _Anazina_ said:

    Byronic said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean is spot on.

    Hunt’s dalliance with legalised fox maiming is a clear sign that he’s lost.

    I’m relieved - the campaign has outed the Huntsman as deranged.

    The incompetent bumbler Boris is a clown, but just about sane.

    Sigh. I am not Sean. But as you were, otherwise.
    Byronic, apologies. Force of habit! It’s the cadence of your prose, recalls a former PBer. He and I were on opposite sides of the traditional political divide but he was often good value.
    No problemo.
This discussion has been closed.