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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs winning 50%+ of the Brecon & Radnorshire vote looks go

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    tpfkar said:

    Would be quite a humiliation for the Tories if they came third in their own defence. I guess they'd blame it on the candidate, but he's still representing them.

    In the current circumstances humiliation would be a relatively good outcome.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019

    During his Patriotic July 4th speech Trump apparently referred to the fact that the Revolutionary Army ‘took over airports’ from the British. This has excited the Twitteracy. See the Guardian’s ‘Battle of the Baggage Claim’ feature

    It's the sort of thing he puts in his speeches to get his opponents to waste a lot of time and effort on social media. I don't know why they don't just ignore him.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    So is Wall Street at a record high the sell of the decade?
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,897
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    1. Happy Anniversary to Mike and Jacky.
    2. There is nothing more pointless than spoiling a ballot paper.

    The role of Police & Crime Commissioner is more pointless. That's why I spoil my ballot when they are up for election.
    Personally I think spoiling ballot papers is legitimate. It shows that you can be bothered to vote but do not approve of the candidates. It is far better than just not voting as that looks like "can't be arsed". As a Tory member I have to make the tough decision as to whether to vote against the lying charlatan, by voting Hunt, or whether to put as large a cock and balls on the ballot paper as will fit to show I am unimpressed by either of them
    Nope. You have a choice and the choice will be made with or without you. It is up to people to make a decision.

    Or of course have no further comment on the decision that is eventually made whatsoever. Even on PB!
    I think spoiling papers is also a legitimate signal. Some eyebrows were raised at the spoiled papers in the first round of the MPs' ballot, since they raised the question whether the new leader could count on general support. They were seen as a warning shot, and no doubt intended to be.
    Someone will be elected. Suppose you didn't agree with the Labour Party candidate in your consituency (whether it is a safe seat or not). If you don't vote then you have no say whatsoever over the result when your great gift is to be able to have a say. To give that up because you hope it will be interpreted in one way or another, I believe is an abnegation of your democratic right and duty.
    I disagree. To conciously abstain is also exercising your right. You are just saying I cannot support any candidate.

    Not voting because of apathy is however giving up. And the only way to show the difference between the two is to return an empty or spoilt ballot paper.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    The worst article you'll ever read about UK elections.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1147532/brexit-party-rise-map-nigel-farage-key-marginals-take-next-general-election-uk

    Sample:

    "3. LONDON - Kensington
    2017 margin: Labour gain from Conservative with 20 votes

    Could Brexit Party take? This is one of the Conservative’s key target seats for the next election. If the Brexit Party can successfully present itself as an alternative, they may have a chance."
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629
    AndyJS said:

    During his Patriotic July 4th speech Trump apparently referred to the fact that the Revolutionary Army ‘took over airports’ from the British. This has excited the Twitteracy. See the Guardian’s ‘Battle of the Baggage Claim’ feature

    It's the sort of thing he puts in his speeches to get his opponents to waste a lot of time and effort on social media. I don't know why they don't just ignore him.
    I don't think it was deliberate, merely misreading of the autocue.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1146973411656294400?s=19
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TOPPING said:

    FPT

    Today my wife and I made our decision on our votes and have returned them in the post this lunchtime.

    Hunt's ill advised como repeal the act. It was an entirely avoidable position in so far as he could have simply said there are far more important issues and he would not re-open the matter

    We have not voted for him but had he not made those comments his 2 votes would be in the post now

    Turning to Boris and the alternatives, neither my wife or I could vote for Boris as we believe he is unreliable and overrated, though we do agree police numbers need increasing and we approve of his more liberal attitude to immigration

    We therefore marked our ballots 'Neither' and sent them in

    It is hugely disappointing to us that we could not vote for either candidate but we had no choice in the end

    Time will tell if Boris makes it but we did not want to have anything to do with voting him in.

    Spoiling your ballot paper(s) was a pointless and counterproductive gesture. Politics is all about finding the least worst solution and the view that most closely matches your own, with expected huge compromises.

    Spoiling your ballot papers is a cowardly cop out.
    A vote has two purposes: to choose who wins an election and to influence parties' policy positions. Normally, the first of those is more valuable, a) because it more directly influences the world and b) because parties aren't necessarily very good at interpreting why you voted how you did and how they could change to win your vote

    However, in the case where both candidates are equally dreadful to you, the equation changes. The value in the first purpose is proportional to the difference in how you rate the candidates, so if you dislike them both so much that you can barely choose who you prefer, that difference is tiny, and so also is the value of choosing which one wins. On the other hand the value of the second purpose is proportional to how far both candidates are from your position and how easy it is for them to interpret your vote. In this case, both candidates' positions are very far from Big_G on Brexit (among other things) and if a bunch of Conservative members spoil their ballots it'll be pretty easy to understand why, and what would need to be done to win them back. So I don't think abstaining is necessarily irrational in this case.

    Obviously, voting behaviour is also a matter of principle, and given how little influence one vote has, maybe it makes sense to primarily see it through that lens. You seem to have a principle that to abstain is to abdicate your responsibility as a voter. Okay, fair enough, but I don't see why you'd expect anyone else to share that view. The principle that Big_G seems to be holding to- that if somebody is reprehensible to you, you shouldn't actively help them be elected- also seems like a pretty good one
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Wall Street at Record high.. where is Madasafish when you need him to predict gloom...
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    It's called a democracy, governed by the rule of law, even for your mates, Gérard.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited July 2019
    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    If you are a centre cenre/left voter Johnson has to be the hoped for Tory winner. Apart from a minority of swivel eyed Tory members I can't see his appeal even getting close to Mrs May's.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The global crisis in conservatism
    Today’s right is not an evolution of conservatism, but a repudiation of it"

    (£)

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/07/04/the-global-crisis-in-conservatism
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    FPT

    Today my wife and I made our decision on our votes and have returned them in the post this lunchtime.

    Hunt's ill advised comments on hunting have had a big consquence in our family, all of whom are implacably opposed to overturning the fox hunting ban, but do endorse drag hunting. It also raised the question in our mind about his competence when he fell in the trap when asked and confirming he would vote to repeal the act. It was an entirely avoidable position in so far as he could have simply said there are far more important issues and he would not re-open the matter

    We have not voted for him but had he not made those comments his 2 votes would be in the post now

    Turning to Boris and the alternatives, neither my wife or I could vote for Boris as we believe he is unreliable and overrated, though we do agree police numbers need increasing and we approve of his more liberal attitude to immigration

    We therefore marked our ballots 'Neither' and sent them in

    It is hugely disappointing to us that we could not vote for either candidate but we had no choice in the end

    Time will tell if Boris makes it but we did not want to have anything to do with voting him in.

    Good for you. I know from my own experience how painful it can be to break with long established loyalties , but at the end of the day it is far more important to remain true to yourself.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    I don't understand people who are anti-hunting and pro-halal slaughter.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Big_G, do you think Hunt is worse on fox-hunting than May was?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,605

    Big_G, do you think Hunt is worse on fox-hunting than May was?

    His sense of timing and political antennae appear every bit as bad.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304

    TOPPING said:

    FPT

    Today my wife and I made our decision on our votes and have returned them in the post this lunchtime.

    We therefore marked our ballots 'Neither' and sent them in

    It is hugely disappointing to us that we could not vote for either candidate but we had no choice in the end

    Time will tell if Boris makes it but we did not want to have anything to do with voting him in.

    Spoiling your ballot paper(sardly cop out.
    A vote has two purposes: to choose who wins an election and to influence parties' policy positions. Normally, the first of those is more valuable, a) because it more directly influences the world and b) because parties aren't necessarily very good at interpreting why you voted how you did and how they could change to win your vote

    However, in the case where both candidates are equally dreadful to you, the equation changes. The value in the first purpose is proportional to the difference in how you rate the candidates, so if you dislike them both so much that you can barely choose who you prefer, that difference is tiny, and so also is the value of choosing which one wins. On the other hand the value of the second purpose is proportional to how far both candidates are from your position and how easy it is for them to interpret your vote. In this case, both candidates' positions are very far from Big_G on Brexit (among other things) and if a bunch of Conservative members spoil their ballots it'll be pretty easy to understand why, and what would need to be done to win them back. So I don't think abstaining is necessarily irrational in this case.

    Obviously, voting behaviour is also a matter of principle, and given how little influence one vote has, maybe it makes sense to primarily see it through that lens. You seem to have a principle that to abstain is to abdicate your responsibility as a voter. Okay, fair enough, but I don't see why you'd expect anyone else to share that view. The principle that Big_G seems to be holding to- that if somebody is reprehensible to you, you shouldn't actively help them be elected- also seems like a pretty good one
    The point is that there are two candidates and one of them will get in; as I said before politics is the art of the possible. If anyone sits it out then they have not given a clear signal to anyone about anything and forsaken the chance to make a contribution if not difference.

    In terms of signalling, Big G is not voting for Hunt because of the hunting issue. How easy would that be to interpret? I meanwhile think Boris is a tosser so voted for Hunt.

    In the end they, like we here on PB, won't give a fuck.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,605

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....

    A reasonable argument considering that a vote on hunting will never get through parliament anyway. But at this point, irrelevant I think.

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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,629
    AndyJS said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    I don't understand people who are anti-hunting and pro-halal slaughter.
    I am not too keen on either, but they are quite obviously different things. I would ban neither.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    Anyone who spoils their ballot is an idiot. Vote for Hunt. Fuck Boris.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    The difference between Brecon and Radnor and Richmond Park is in Brecon most of the Labour voters will be working class Leave voters and less likely to tactically vote LD than the more middle class Remain voting Labour voters in Richmond
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    MaxPB said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    Anyone who spoils their ballot is an idiot. Vote for Hunt. Fuck Boris.
    I have now received my ballot paper and will be voting for Boris this weekend.

    I hope to finally back the winner having voted for Ken Clarke in 2001 and David Davis in 2005
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited July 2019
    Roger said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    If you are a centre cenre/left voter Johnson has to be the hoped for Tory winner. Apart from a minority of swivel eyed Tory members I can't see his appeal even getting close to Mrs May's.
    You obviously have not read the latest YouGov this week, Boris with a 34% approval rating, higher than Hunt on 25% and May on 27% and Corbyn on just 19%.

    Boris also has lower unfavourables than May and Corbyn on 57%, compared to 63% for May and 70% for Corbyn. Hunt is seen unfavourably by 55% so on a net basis Boris still leads him even if Hunt has slightly lower unfavourables


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/04/voting-intention-labour-falls-4th-place
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    AndyJS said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    I don't understand people who are anti-hunting and pro-halal slaughter.
    I oppose both.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,065
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    Anyone who spoils their ballot is an idiot. Vote for Hunt. Fuck Boris.
    I have now received my ballot paper and will be voting for Boris this weekend.

    I hope to finally back the winner having voted for Ken Clarke in 2001 and David Davis in 2005
    You voted for the pro-EU candidate and the pro-civil liberties candidate. You know what this means? You’re basically a Lib Dem.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TOPPING said:

    1. Happy Anniversary to Mike and Jacky.
    2. There is nothing more pointless than spoiling a ballot paper.

    The role of Police & Crime Commissioner is more pointless. That's why I spoil my ballot when they are up for election.
    My mother joined the Conservative Party so she could vote to deselect their candidate for police and crime commissioner!

    And then suddenly gets to vote for PM...
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Big_G, do you think Hunt is worse on fox-hunting than May was?

    Is "as bad as May" the metric we are looking for?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    stodge said:

    On topic: I think 50% might just be attainable but it is a big ask. It requires either hoovering up the entire 2017 vote share from Labour and Plaid, or to compensate for not being to reduce the Labour vote to zero by persuading 2017 Conservative voters to vote LibDem or at least to abstain. (The combined Conservative + UKIP vote in 2017 was 50%). In practice, Labour's vote will collapse but it won't vaporise completely, and some of it may go to the Brexit Party rather than the LibDems. I'd want more than 4/1 on this.

    The LDs got 46% in 2010 when Labour got 10% and that's the largest vote for the former and smallest for the latter in recent times.

    The Conservatives were just under 28% in the 1985 by-election.

    We have to start somewhere so the Con-Lab vote share in B&R was just under 2/3 in 2017. On the assumption they've lost just under half of that let's allocate 40% to Con and Lab so we can say Con 30% and Lab 10%. The national Con-LD swing is about 15% so that would put the LDs at about 45% with TBP filling in the rest and maybe nicking another five points off the Conservatives so I come out at LD 45%, CON 25%, TBP 20% and Lab 10% so on a turnout of around 50%, I make it about a 5,000 LD majority.
    Why will turnout be so much lower than the 79.4% recorded at the July 1985 by election here?
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    SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    My paper has arrived. The only question is exactly how I should go about spoiling it. Gut instinct is to write in the name of former Leeds and Scotland frontman Arthur Graham and put a cross next to him.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332

    FPT

    Today my wife and I made our decision on our votes and have returned them in the post this lunchtime.

    Hunt's ill advised comments on hunting have had a big consquence in our family, all of whom are implacably opposed to overturning the fox hunting ban, but do endorse drag hunting. It also raised the question in our mind about his competence when he fell in the trap when asked and confirming he would vote to repeal the act. It was an entirely avoidable position in so far as he could have simply said there are far more important issues and he would not re-open the matter

    We have not voted for him but had he not made those comments his 2 votes would be in the post now

    Turning to Boris and the alternatives, neither my wife or I could vote for Boris as we believe he is unreliable and overrated, though we do agree police numbers need increasing and we approve of his more liberal attitude to immigration

    We therefore marked our ballots 'Neither' and sent them in

    It is hugely disappointing to us that we could not vote for either candidate but we had no choice in the end

    Time will tell if Boris makes it but we did not want to have anything to do with voting him in.

    We don’t care.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779
    @Mike
    Either you've lost your betting marbles or the 'to win' market is free money at 1.20ish based on your header. I've just backed a little at 1.19.

    I generally avoid LD betting - I simply don't understand the dynamic. However in small size, with a strong Smithson wind at my back (better that way) I'm happy to back the yellows.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335

    Big_G, do you think Hunt is worse on fox-hunting than May was?

    Apparently. Boris has just confirmed that he will drop the 2017 commitment to reopen the issue. He does have good animal welfare connections (notably his father).
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,153

    FPT

    Today my wife and I made our decision on our votes and have returned them in the post this lunchtime.

    Hunt's ill advised comments on hunting have had a big consquence in our family, all of whom are implacably opposed to overturning the fox hunting ban, but do endorse drag hunting. It also raised the question in our mind about his competence when he fell in the trap when asked and confirming he would vote to repeal the act. It was an entirely avoidable position in so far as he could have simply said there are far more important issues and he would not re-open the matter

    We have not voted for him but had he not made those comments his 2 votes would be in the post now

    Turning to Boris and the alternatives, neither my wife or I could vote for Boris as we believe he is unreliable and overrated, though we do agree police numbers need increasing and we approve of his more liberal attitude to immigration

    We therefore marked our ballots 'Neither' and sent them in

    It is hugely disappointing to us that we could not vote for either candidate but we had no choice in the end

    Time will tell if Boris makes it but we did not want to have anything to do with voting him in.

    We don’t care.
    Millwall Bushwacker?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    AndyJS said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    I don't understand people who are anti-hunting and pro-halal slaughter.
    As noted above they are very different issues - causing suffering for food is bad, causing it for sport is worse. However, the issue is really not halal but effective stunning. If the animal is properly stunned (as is the case for most halal meat, though sadly not the 90% that we got it to), I couldn't care less what the religion of the slaughtermen is. There may be someone who is anti-hunting and pro-unstunned meat, but I've never met one.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    Anyone who spoils their ballot is an idiot. Vote for Hunt. Fuck Boris.
    I have now received my ballot paper and will be voting for Boris this weekend.

    I hope to finally back the winner having voted for Ken Clarke in 2001 and David Davis in 2005
    I voted for Ken Clarke back in 2001!

    I could not believe it when IDS won, although Ken Clarke winning in the membership would have been completely unforeseen!

    I did not have a vote in 2005 but I would have voted for David Cameron as he was the better candidate IMO. Neither of them were likely to win outright in the next GE and I detected Cameron was better placed to minimise peoples objections to the Tories than Davis. Cameron had some success in rebranding whereas Davis I doubt would have done this. The rebranding has gone down the toilet in the last few years and the hard faced Toryism of the Thatcher years is taking hold in the party whilst the country does not seem receptive to that agenda.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for a politics blog is it

    a) nobhead

    b) nob head

    c) knobhead

    or

    d) knob head

    The original was (b) [son of a noble] but over time it has migrated to (d) because people liked to conflate (b) with the physical appearance of the male appendage
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Foxy said:

    AndyJS said:

    During his Patriotic July 4th speech Trump apparently referred to the fact that the Revolutionary Army ‘took over airports’ from the British. This has excited the Twitteracy. See the Guardian’s ‘Battle of the Baggage Claim’ feature

    It's the sort of thing he puts in his speeches to get his opponents to waste a lot of time and effort on social media. I don't know why they don't just ignore him.
    I don't think it was deliberate, merely misreading of the autocue.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1146973411656294400?s=19
    Yes George Washington stopping those redcoat fighter jets was pivotal to the Continental army
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,332
    justin124 said:

    FPT

    Today my wife and I made our decision on our votes and have returned them in the post this lunchtime.

    Hunt's ill advised comments on hunting have had a big consquence in our family, all of whom are implacably opposed to overturning the fox hunting ban, but do endorse drag hunting. It also raised the question in our mind about his competence when he fell in the trap when asked and confirming he would vote to repeal the act. It was an entirely avoidable position in so far as he could have simply said there are far more important issues and he would not re-open the matter

    We have not voted for him but had he not made those comments his 2 votes would be in the post now

    Turning to Boris and the alternatives, neither my wife or I could vote for Boris as we believe he is unreliable and overrated, though we do agree police numbers need increasing and we approve of his more liberal attitude to immigration

    We therefore marked our ballots 'Neither' and sent them in

    It is hugely disappointing to us that we could not vote for either candidate but we had no choice in the end

    Time will tell if Boris makes it but we did not want to have anything to do with voting him in.

    Good for you. I know from my own experience how painful it can be to break with long established loyalties , but at the end of the day it is far more important to remain true to yourself.
    He isn’t loyal.

    He’s the flakiest of the flakiest and desperate to be liked.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    Anyone who spoils their ballot is an idiot. Vote for Hunt. Fuck Boris.
    I have now received my ballot paper and will be voting for Boris this weekend.

    I hope to finally back the winner having voted for Ken Clarke in 2001 and David Davis in 2005
    You voted for the pro-EU candidate and the pro-civil liberties candidate. You know what this means? You’re basically a Lib Dem.
    No, it means I am in the centre of the party. I campaigned against the Euro in the 2001 election but thought Clarke was the best bet to take on Blair at the time (he promised not to make the euro official policy) and he probably would have been but IDS kept the party united.

    Had I been on the left of the party 'basically a Lib Dem' I would have voted for Clarke in 2001, Cameron in 2005 and Hunt this time, had I been on the right of the party 'basically UKIP/Brexit Party' as some will no doubt say I would have voted for IDS in 2001, Davis in 2005 and Boris this time
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    Anyone who spoils their ballot is an idiot. Vote for Hunt. Fuck Boris.
    I have now received my ballot paper and will be voting for Boris this weekend.

    I hope to finally back the winner having voted for Ken Clarke in 2001 and David Davis in 2005
    I voted for Ken Clarke back in 2001!

    I could not believe it when IDS won, although Ken Clarke winning in the membership would have been completely unforeseen!

    I did not have a vote in 2005 but I would have voted for David Cameron as he was the better candidate IMO. Neither of them were likely to win outright in the next GE and I detected Cameron was better placed to minimise peoples objections to the Tories than Davis. Cameron had some success in rebranding whereas Davis I doubt would have done this. The rebranding has gone down the toilet in the last few years and the hard faced Toryism of the Thatcher years is taking hold in the party whilst the country does not seem receptive to that agenda.
    I think you are more on the left of the party than me then
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    TOPPING said:



    Someone will be elected. Suppose you didn't agree with the Labour Party candidate in your consituency (whether it is a safe seat or not). If you don't vote then you have no say whatsoever over the result when your great gift is to be able to have a say. To give that up because you hope it will be interpreted in one way or another, I believe is an abnegation of your democratic right and duty.

    It's a perfectly valid opinion, but not an obvious truth (as you can see from the fact that almost nobody here is agreeing with you). If there's an election, any action - voting for X or Y or spoiling the ballot or not voting - is a signal. It's really up to each of us to decide what signal we want to send.

    You do presumably favour compulsory voting? I was quite persuaded against by one woman who said, "Look, I don't follow politics, and I don't trust my judgment. I'd rather leave it to those who do follow it to decide, rather than confuse things by putting in a random vote for someone I've never heard of."
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,065
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779
    Charles said:

    Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for a politics blog is it

    a) nobhead

    b) nob head

    c) knobhead

    or

    d) knob head

    The original was (b) [son of a noble] but over time it has migrated to (d) because people liked to conflate (b) with the physical appearance of the male appendage
    The modern usage must be 'c'. However your friend should get a new job if she's worrying about grammar that you'd never use in a proper document. I suspect that hyphenated varieties would actually rule the roost (or rule-the-roost).
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    What's it cost for non-democrats?
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Free toilet paper! As a bonus I get to wipe my arse on Farage's face!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    I don't understand people who are anti-hunting and pro-halal slaughter.
    I am bemused by people who fish for sport but are anti-hunting. I don't like either though I do eat meat.
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    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    AndyJS said:

    During his Patriotic July 4th speech Trump apparently referred to the fact that the Revolutionary Army ‘took over airports’ from the British. This has excited the Twitteracy. See the Guardian’s ‘Battle of the Baggage Claim’ feature

    It's the sort of thing he puts in his speeches to get his opponents to waste a lot of time and effort on social media. I don't know why they don't just ignore him.
    I don't think it was deliberate, merely misreading of the autocue.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1146973411656294400?s=19
    Yes George Washington stopping those redcoat fighter jets was pivotal to the Continental army
    True. The RAF was impotent during the American War of Independence. Not a single US target hit. Sad.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    FPT

    Today my wife and I made our decision on our votes and have returned them in the post this lunchtime.

    Hunt's ill advised comments on hunting have had a big consquence in our family, all of whom are implacably opposed to overturning the fox hunting ban, but do endorse drag hunting. It also raised the question in our mind about his competence when he fell in the trap when asked and confirming he would vote to repeal the act. It was an entirely avoidable position in so far as he could have simply said there are far more important issues and he would not re-open the matter

    We have not voted for him but had he not made those comments his 2 votes would be in the post now

    Turning to Boris and the alternatives, neither my wife or I could vote for Boris as we believe he is unreliable and overrated, though we do agree police numbers need increasing and we approve of his more liberal attitude to immigration

    We therefore marked our ballots 'Neither' and sent them in

    It is hugely disappointing to us that we could not vote for either candidate but we had no choice in the end

    Time will tell if Boris makes it but we did not want to have anything to do with voting him in.

    We don’t care.
    That’s just rude Casino
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,213
    Surely the Cons have a good chance with the anticipated Boris bounce.

    That's why they are electing him - his pulling power.

    Why would he not be able to pull in Wales?
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kinabalu said:

    Surely the Cons have a good chance with the anticipated Boris bounce.

    That's why they are electing him - his pulling power.

    Why would he not be able to pull in Wales?

    The problem for the Boris bounce is how far the tide has gone out since the last election. If he gets a bounce of say +6 off 18% he and therefore the Tories are in the mid 20s. The Brexit supporting media (formally known as the Tory press) are going to regret talking up Farage and the Brexit party as they may have destabilised the Tories for a long-time….
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    AndyJS said:

    During his Patriotic July 4th speech Trump apparently referred to the fact that the Revolutionary Army ‘took over airports’ from the British. This has excited the Twitteracy. See the Guardian’s ‘Battle of the Baggage Claim’ feature

    It's the sort of thing he puts in his speeches to get his opponents to waste a lot of time and effort on social media. I don't know why they don't just ignore him.
    I don't think it was deliberate, merely misreading of the autocue.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1146973411656294400?s=19
    Yes George Washington stopping those redcoat fighter jets was pivotal to the Continental army
    True. The RAF was impotent during the American War of Independence. Not a single US target hit. Sad.
    A few years of drift and the RFCs dangerous lawnmowers might have made a difference.

    The RAF are a bit crap though. If they fly a sortie to punish then the report shouldn't be mainly about excuses. Not dropping the bombs is perfect cover for not actually being in the right place.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,779
    kinabalu said:

    Surely the Cons have a good chance with the anticipated Boris bounce.

    That's why they are electing him - his pulling power.

    Why would he not be able to pull in Wales?

    The hills are beyond his sound of music.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Today my wife and I made our decision on our votes and have returned them in the post this lunchtime.

    Hunt's ill advised comments on hunting have had a big consquence in our family, all of whom are implacably opposed to overturning the fox hunting ban, but do endorse drag hunting. It also raised the question in our mind about his competence when he fell in the trap when asked and confirming he would vote to repeal the act. It was an entirely avoidable position in so far as he could have simply said there are far more important issues and he would not re-open the matter

    We have not voted for him but had he not made those comments his 2 votes would be in the post now

    Turning to Boris and the alternatives, neither my wife or I could vote for Boris as we believe he is unreliable and overrated, though we do agree police numbers need increasing and we approve of his more liberal attitude to immigration

    We therefore marked our ballots 'Neither' and sent them in

    It is hugely disappointing to us that we could not vote for either candidate but we had no choice in the end

    Time will tell if Boris makes it but we did not want to have anything to do with voting him in.

    We don’t care.
    That’s just rude Casino
    Not really, Big G and Mrs G are 2 of 160k voters eligible in this election. We need to stop Boris.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Well if you're running short of toilet papermaybe but I wouldn’t even wipe my arse on that
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited July 2019

    kinabalu said:

    Surely the Cons have a good chance with the anticipated Boris bounce.

    That's why they are electing him - his pulling power.

    Why would he not be able to pull in Wales?

    The problem for the Boris bounce is how far the tide has gone out since the last election. If he gets a bounce of say +6 off 18% he and therefore the Tories are in the mid 20s. The Brexit supporting media (formally known as the Tory press) are going to regret talking up Farage and the Brexit party as they may have destabilised the Tories for a long-time….
    According to YouGov this week the Brexit Party are picking up 10% of 2017 Labour voters too, so they are not all ex Tories even if 38% of 2017 Tories are now voting Brexit Party.

    The LDs meanwhile are picking up 28% of 2017 Labour voters but just 6% of 2017 Tories, so more 2017 Labour voters are voting Brexit Party than 2017 Tories are voting LD.


    There is barely any Tory to Labour movement or vice versa, just 1% of 2017 Tories now back Labour and just 3% of 2017 Labour voters now back the Tories


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/o8pit1boew/TheTimes_190703_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    In the choice between Hunt and Boris, it has to be Hunt.

    I can understand why someone might spoil their ballot but one of the two is going to become PM in a few weeks time.

    I am opposed to hunting as I think it is cruel and barbaric. If you are going to kill animals do it with rifles not a pack of dogs with blood thirsty maniacs in red tunics galivanting around the countryside. I think any form of "sport" that involves the killing of animals is an activity that belongs in the past.

    For the good of the country I would vote for Jeremy Hunt as we don't want saddling with Boris Johnson as PM, he will lead us into disaster....


    Anyone who spoils their ballot is an idiot. Vote for Hunt. Fuck Boris.
    I have now received my ballot paper and will be voting for Boris this weekend.

    I hope to finally back the winner having voted for Ken Clarke in 2001 and David Davis in 2005
    I voted for Ken Clarke back in 2001!

    I could not believe it when IDS won, although Ken Clarke winning in the membership would have been completely unforeseen!

    I did not have a vote in 2005 but I would have voted for David Cameron as he was the better candidate IMO. Neither of them were likely to win outright in the next GE and I detected Cameron was better placed to minimise peoples objections to the Tories than Davis. Cameron had some success in rebranding whereas Davis I doubt would have done this. The rebranding has gone down the toilet in the last few years and the hard faced Toryism of the Thatcher years is taking hold in the party whilst the country does not seem receptive to that agenda.
    I think you are more on the left of the party than me then
    How is that possible?
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,770

    What's it cost for non-democrats?
    The loss of your EU citizenship
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    1. Happy Anniversary to Mike and Jacky.
    2. There is nothing more pointless than spoiling a ballot paper.

    The role of Police & Crime Commissioner is more pointless. That's why I spoil my ballot when they are up for election.
    That's extraordinary. It is elected representation for the police. It is one of the few recommendations that David Copperfield, otherwise hugely critical of the police force and its hierarchy, made for improving police services. And you decide to eschew it.

    That, as I said, is extraordinary, especially for someone who is seeking elected office themselves.
    I wasn't a big fan of Cameron, but I did think that elected police commissioners was a very positive move. It's a great shame they have been met with general indifference. But outright hostility?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Big_G, do you think Hunt is worse on fox-hunting than May was?

    Apparently. Boris has just confirmed that he will drop the 2017 commitment to reopen the issue. He does have good animal welfare connections (notably his father).

    Good pro-EU connections, also.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    kinabalu said:

    Surely the Cons have a good chance with the anticipated Boris bounce.

    That's why they are electing him - his pulling power.

    Why would he not be able to pull in Wales?

    The problem for the Boris bounce is how far the tide has gone out since the last election. If he gets a bounce of say +6 off 18% he and therefore the Tories are in the mid 20s. The Brexit supporting media (formally known as the Tory press) are going to regret talking up Farage and the Brexit party as they may have destabilised the Tories for a long-time….
    I suspect that much of any bounce is already appearing in the polls. Parties do tend to gain during leadership campaigns.The likely result will not come a surprise and that probably limits the scope for any further Tory progress.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Centre right set to return to power in Greece on Sunday's general election, up 12% over Tsipras' Syriza in the latest poll.

    If they win it will be the end for the first and last populist left government in the West since the 2008 crash


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/greek-election-kyriakos-mitsotakis-poised-to-replace-alexis-tsipras-as-prime-minister-fpp2sdq8n?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1YJ241z2p3Q7F0xfpZYoEC9BgdaPJ_jukGL2Kn52UvkJWmkb4cwye3bxc#Echobox=1562344761

  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Yawn.
  • Options
    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,435
    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Beating Corbyn is now not the problem. It is beating Farage and Swinson.
  • Options
    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Distributed by brown shirts?
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Surely the Cons have a good chance with the anticipated Boris bounce.

    That's why they are electing him - his pulling power.

    Why would he not be able to pull in Wales?

    The problem for the Boris bounce is how far the tide has gone out since the last election. If he gets a bounce of say +6 off 18% he and therefore the Tories are in the mid 20s. The Brexit supporting media (formally known as the Tory press) are going to regret talking up Farage and the Brexit party as they may have destabilised the Tories for a long-time….
    I suspect that much of any bounce is already appearing in the polls. Parties do tend to gain during leadership campaigns.The likely result will not come a surprise and that probably limits the scope for any further Tory progress.
    I agree with you, the only plus side for the Tories on electing Boris would be if the Brexit supporting media reversed the information, agenda and coverage of Farage and the Brexit party. The Brexit party is not really a threat in terms of winning seats from the Tories IMO but it has the potential to undermine Tory held marginals or even less marginal Tory seats.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    AndyJS said:

    During his Patriotic July 4th speech Trump apparently referred to the fact that the Revolutionary Army ‘took over airports’ from the British. This has excited the Twitteracy. See the Guardian’s ‘Battle of the Baggage Claim’ feature

    It's the sort of thing he puts in his speeches to get his opponents to waste a lot of time and effort on social media. I don't know why they don't just ignore him.
    I don't think it was deliberate, merely misreading of the autocue.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1146973411656294400?s=19
    Yes George Washington stopping those redcoat fighter jets was pivotal to the Continental army
    True. The RAF was impotent during the American War of Independence. Not a single US target hit. Sad.
    I'm sure @Dura_Ace would have picked off a few targets in 1776.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,667
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Yawn.

    @HYUFD seeks elected office for the Cons. Just like many other conservative politicians he is keen to ally himself with the person he thinks will be the winner.

    That's fair enough. He is doing no more or less than @NickP does with whomever is leading the Labour party at any one time.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    HYUFD said:

    Centre right set to return to power in Greece on Sunday's general election, up 12% over Tsipras' Syriza in the latest poll.

    If they win it will be the end for the first and last populist left government in the West since the 2008 crash


    The poll leads for New Democracy range from 9 to 13% so more than enough. I'm sure you'll appreciate it's been a mixed year for the centre right with Spain and Denmark being won by centre-left parties or blocs.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,772
    HYUFD said:
    This is another UK franchise of a US website, isn't it? (See also Turning Point) D'y'know, there was a time when we invented our own politics, rather than duckspeak memes from elsewhere... :(
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Oh for god sake can’t you go on holiday to somewhere where there is no internet and rediscover the real meaning of life. Without wanting to be rude you are becoming boring beyond the extreme. Others may find your insight fascinating but between you and Phil I can’t get over the completely predictable, lack of humor, approach to life. But then that’s me, others may find it fascinating.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    HYUFD said:
    The £260k a year the Telegraph spunks on Boris’s columns is far more questionable use of money.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,213
    AndyJS said:

    It's the sort of thing he puts in his speeches to get his opponents to waste a lot of time and effort on social media. I don't know why they don't just ignore him.

    Yes, let's pretend he doesn't exist. Complete media blackout. I would vote for that.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    HYUFD said:


    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn

    And if people don't want Boris, Brexit or Corbyn, it's quite simple - vote Lib Dem and we can be rid of all three in one go.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,772
    Oh godsdammit! I've just gone thru my receipt and a 500ml diet coke costs 60p more than a 1250ml diet coke from M&S!

    There is no justice! (shakes fist at sky dramatically) Aaargh!

    Pause

    Ok, I might be overreacting... :)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:
    The £260k a year the Telegraph spunks on Boris’s columns is far more questionable use of money.
    Gary Lineker gets £1.75 million a year
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,772
    viewcode said:

    Oh godsdammit! I've just gone thru my receipt and a 500ml diet coke costs 60p more than a 1250ml diet coke from M&S!

    There is no justice! (shakes fist at sky dramatically) Aaargh!

    Pause

    Ok, I might be overreacting... :)

    [This is really true btw... :) ]
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Yawn.

    @HYUFD seeks elected office for the Cons. Just like many other conservative politicians he is keen to ally himself with the person he thinks will be the winner.

    That's fair enough. He is doing no more or less than @NickP does with whomever is leading the Labour party at any one time.
    Nick went from loyal Blairite to loyal Corbynite without too many complaints and I campaigned for the IDS Tory Party and the Cameron Tory Party so yes party loyalty is a powerful glue, even if you vote for a different candidate beforehand you get behind the winner
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    HYUFD said:
    The £260k a year the Telegraph spunks on Boris’s columns is far more questionable use of money.
    Except, they don't wheel out a huge enforcement machinery if you don't buy the Telegraph.....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Centre right set to return to power in Greece on Sunday's general election, up 12% over Tsipras' Syriza in the latest poll.

    If they win it will be the end for the first and last populist left government in the West since the 2008 crash


    The poll leads for New Democracy range from 9 to 13% so more than enough. I'm sure you'll appreciate it's been a mixed year for the centre right with Spain and Denmark being won by centre-left parties or blocs.
    Yes but Spain was won by a centrist Socialist Party under Sanchez not the far left Podemos and Denmark was won by the Social Democrats on a tough on immigration platform, neither can be described as Corbynista as Syriza in Greece is
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Oh for god sake can’t you go on holiday to somewhere where there is no internet and rediscover the real meaning of life. Without wanting to be rude you are becoming boring beyond the extreme. Others may find your insight fascinating but between you and Phil I can’t get over the completely predictable, lack of humor, approach to life. But then that’s me, others may find it fascinating.
    Well fine, scroll on past my posts then
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,065
    Hunt found time to campaign for the SNP.

    https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/1147176630843953152?s=21
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Oh for god sake can’t you go on holiday to somewhere where there is no internet and rediscover the real meaning of life. Without wanting to be rude you are becoming boring beyond the extreme. Others may find your insight fascinating but between you and Phil I can’t get over the completely predictable, lack of humor, approach to life. But then that’s me, others may find it fascinating.
    Well fine, scroll on past my posts then
    I do
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    The £260k a year the Telegraph spunks on Boris’s columns is far more questionable use of money.
    Gary Lineker gets £1.75 million a year
    And? Not only does TV pay better than newspapers, Lineker is not a busy (and adequately remunerated) MP.
  • Options
    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:
    I always think well of John Major. I don't know how the membership will take his advice though. 1992 - 1997 looks like a period of calm compared to the current political environment!
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    The £260k a year the Telegraph spunks on Boris’s columns is far more questionable use of money.
    Gary Lineker gets £1.75 million a year
    And free TV licences for over 75s cost half a billion.

    I know Johnson was just trying to be cute, but it's just so utterly stupid. What's his real solution to it in the real world we live in? Government to fund? Axe BBC2? Charging model?

    It just isn't good enough being an occasionally amusing chap (although nowhere near as hilarious as you think) when you're PM - there has to be a level of seriousness about finding workable solutions when confronted with real issues.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,335
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Yawn.

    @HYUFD seeks elected office for the Cons. Just like many other conservative politicians he is keen to ally himself with the person he thinks will be the winner.

    That's fair enough. He is doing no more or less than @NickP does with whomever is leading the Labour party at any one time.
    Nick went from loyal Blairite to loyal Corbynite without too many complaints and I campaigned for the IDS Tory Party and the Cameron Tory Party so yes party loyalty is a powerful glue, even if you vote for a different candidate beforehand you get behind the winner
    More complicated than that in my case. I'm a pragmatic left-winger, keen to get the most left-wing government that has a chance of winning. I supported Tony because after 18 years of Tory Government there was plenty to do with merely centrist politics, so I thought fine, let's get on with those. Minimum wage! Reviving the NHS! Peace in Ulster! Gay marriage! By 2010 I felt we'd run out of centrist ideas (and the vacuum that is ChangeUK and IMO the fashionable LibDems too illustrates that it's still true), so time to move further left.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:
    I have much sympathy with that view! Whilst Lineker seems a decent guy , he has never been a naturally broadcaster. When he first appeared on our screens in the mid-90s he was embarrassingly poor, and whilst over the years he has improved to the extent of being adequate he does not have the skills of some of his predecessors such as Lynam, Hill and Wolstenhome.He has no great charisma or natural authority, and I have always found it a mystery that the BBC spent so much on training him up up in the early years and then paying him a megabucks salary as if he was someone special - which in broadcasting terms he never has been. Others far more talented as journalists would have done the job for a fraction of his salary. Frankly it does seem an abuse of Licence Payers' money - and I find it difficult to believe that there are many people tuning in to BBC sports programmes just to see him!.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Yawn.

    @HYUFD seeks elected office for the Cons. Just like many other conservative politicians he is keen to ally himself with the person he thinks will be the winner.

    That's fair enough. He is doing no more or less than @NickP does with whomever is leading the Labour party at any one time.
    Nick went from loyal Blairite to loyal Corbynite without too many complaints and I campaigned for the IDS Tory Party and the Cameron Tory Party so yes party loyalty is a powerful glue, even if you vote for a different candidate beforehand you get behind the winner
    I complained!

    Plus at some point if your party changes you must take stock. What does it mean? What has it become?

    For me the party has changed so I am considering my support.

    Would you campaign strongly for a Francois-led Conservative party? Just because it's the same name doesn't mean it's the same party.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,419

    Free toilet paper! As a bonus I get to wipe my arse on Farage's face!
    Whatever tickles your pickle I suppose...
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,854
    HYUFD said:


    Yes but Spain was won by a centrist Socialist Party under Sanchez not the far left Podemos and Denmark was won by the Social Democrats on a tough on immigration platform, neither can be described as Corbynista as Syriza in Greece is

    Certainly but the point I'm making is the centre-left (as distinct from what you describe as the populist left) is far from dormant.

    In the Ukraine, the "Servant of the People" Party of the President (how would you describe them?) look set for a big victory in the parliamentary elections in a fortnight.

    In Portugal, which votes on October 6th, the centre-right government looks as though it will be toppled by the Socialists who I would argue are again more centre-left than populist left.

    Austria will be more interesting - given the overwhelming strength of the OVP, the question is whether it will need to form a coalition and whether it could do so with NEOS rather than the FPO or the SPD both of whom have lost ground.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005

    HYUFD said:
    I always think well of John Major. I don't know how the membership will take his advice though. 1992 - 1997 looks like a period of calm compared to the current political environment!
    I also have time for Major, I attended my first campaign rally for him in 1992 and campaigned for him in 1997. However when Major backed Clarke in 2001 and the Thatcher backed IDS the membership followed Thatcher and voted for IDS.

    In 2005 he stayed neutral but almost certainly voted for Cameron having told Marr he hoped David Davis would have a place in the Shadow Cabinet along with other big hitters
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Jeremy Rajoy
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    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives are casting around desperately to find a reason for anyone to vote for them. They haven’t found one yet,

    They will with Boris, to deliver Brexit and to beat Corbyn
    Yawn.

    @HYUFD seeks elected office for the Cons. Just like many other conservative politicians he is keen to ally himself with the person he thinks will be the winner.

    That's fair enough. He is doing no more or less than @NickP does with whomever is leading the Labour party at any one time.
    Nick went from loyal Blairite to loyal Corbynite without too many complaints and I campaigned for the IDS Tory Party and the Cameron Tory Party so yes party loyalty is a powerful glue, even if you vote for a different candidate beforehand you get behind the winner
    I'm a pragmatic left-winger, keen to get the most left-wing government that has a chance of winning.
    Sorry, Nick, I like your comments on here, but this really is mind-blowing.

    It implies that there are genuinely no limits based on what you believe is correct, pragmatic, fair or anything else. It's sadly indicative of the politics we have today. Imagine if a Conservative came on here and said "I'd like the most right wing government possible, but am unfortunately constrained by the fact that cutting off burglars' hands is hard to sell on the doorsteps"... we'd all rightly be appalled.

    I hope you've misspoken here.

This discussion has been closed.