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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson looks certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him le

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 5 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson looks certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26

One thing that we’ve learned over the last two decades is that we can rely of YouGov CON members’ polling to give a pretty accurate picture of the outcome of a leadership ballot. Before IDS and Cameron’s victories in the postal ballots the firm had the final outcomes to within a point both times.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 75,750
    First like Boris, sadly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 4,982
    Second. Like the country?
  • My ballot came yesterday. Voted Boris.

    Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.

    Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    It's going to be a whupping. I do actually see why many Tories would back Boris, not just those yearning for no deal but also those who think he is a gamble worth taking to save the party, but even with that it is crazy he is so far out in front. I defy someone to tell me he is that amazing or Hunt that bad.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 7,427
    Only Tory MPs resigning the Whip might stop him now.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,686
    Bonking Boris coming first?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    edited July 5
    Scott_P said:
    A story about Labour being in some kind of self earned trouble? Must be a day ending in Y. Eventually it will actually lead to something more than a blip like the Tiggers.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,103
    The Tories electing Boris is every bit as ridiculous as Labour electing Corbyn. So it's only fair that when this occurs that the Labour supporters on this site get to laugh at the Tories.

    I don't agree with the Lib Dems on a lot of things, including Brexit, but I can see myself ending up voting for them as they will be the last non-mad UK political party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    kle4 said:

    It's going to be a whupping. I do actually see why many Tories would back Boris, not just those yearning for no deal but also those who think he is a gamble worth taking to save the party, but even with that it is crazy he is so far out in front. I defy someone to tell me he is that amazing or Hunt that bad.

    Oh, he's definitely amazing.

    His incompetence has a limitless capacity to amaze.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,548
    CLP AGM update: All exec posts filled unopposed. Including me!

    Everything was going so well, and then someone tried to table an emergency motion calling for the reinstatement of Chris Williamson...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,972
    There was never any doubt...
  • glwglw Posts: 5,103
    ydoethur said:

    His incompetence has a limitless capacity to amaze.

    I'll tell you one thing, his supporters can't be readers of the tripe Boris writes for the Telegraph. Nobody who regularly reads the guff that Boris knocks out in an hour or so would think "he should be running the country".
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,686
    kle4 said:

    It's going to be a whupping. I do actually see why many Tories would back Boris, not just those yearning for no deal but also those who think he is a gamble worth taking to save the party, but even with that it is crazy he is so far out in front. I defy someone to tell me he is that amazing or Hunt that bad.

    Its the stupid look on Tory members faces that always baffles me, when Boris is mentioned or the prospect they might meet him. They seem impressed by him for some reason. I have never understood why people like him. Maybe he makes them laugh but he will not be putting smiles on peoples faces if he gets the keys to No.10!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,138
    More politicization of children in London today I see.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,103

    Its the stupid look on Tory members faces that always baffles me, when Boris is mentioned or the prospect they might meet him. They seem impressed by him for some reason. I have never understood why people like him. Maybe he makes them laugh but he will not be putting smiles on peoples faces if he gets the keys to No.10!

    Of all the reasons there might be for picking a PM, "makes me laugh" should be near the bottom of the list.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,186

    My ballot came yesterday. Voted Boris.

    Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.

    Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x

    If Johnson fails on Brexit, will you admit that it’s Brexit that is the problem, not the leader?
  • My ballot came yesterday. Voted Boris.

    Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.

    Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x

    If Johnson fails on Brexit, will you admit that it’s Brexit that is the problem, not the leader?
    There is no "failing" on Brexit. Either they honour their word, or do not.

    If Boris doesn't do, then the Tory Party itself will have to go.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939

    CLP AGM update: All exec posts filled unopposed. Including me!

    Everything was going so well, and then someone tried to table an emergency motion calling for the reinstatement of Chris Williamson...

    Part of the course for CLPs. Along with refocusing their energies on the real enemy. Blairites.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,556
    Yet more collateral damage from those who voted Leave.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,186

    My ballot came yesterday. Voted Boris.

    Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.

    Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x

    If Johnson fails on Brexit, will you admit that it’s Brexit that is the problem, not the leader?
    There is no "failing" on Brexit. Either they honour their word, or do not.

    If Boris doesn't do, then the Tory Party itself will have to go.
    And if Nigel Farage became PM and didn’t honour his word?
  • My ballot came yesterday. Voted Boris.

    Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.

    Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x

    If Johnson fails on Brexit, will you admit that it’s Brexit that is the problem, not the leader?
    There is no "failing" on Brexit. Either they honour their word, or do not.

    If Boris doesn't do, then the Tory Party itself will have to go.
    And if Nigel Farage became PM and didn’t honour his word?
    You seem to be suggesting it is some impossibility. It really isn't. We're leaving a treaty and resuming a status we've had for 1,000 years. Like Australia. Canada. New Zealand. Telling us we can't have it when we can see it in front of us won't wash.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887
    It is a great mystery, certainly. I very much doubt if there's a single member of the Conservative Party who thinks Boris is fit to be PM, yet they're voting for him. Even the Kipper entryists like @Viceroy_of_Orange can't seriously think he's to be trusted - why would they, in defiance of all experience? But a collective madness has taken over the Conservative Party.

    Anyway, my wife and I will be sending in our ballots shortly. It's no doubt a futile exercise, but one has to do one's democratic duty. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about drafting our resignation letter.

  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    edited July 5

    It is a great mystery, certainly. I very much doubt if there's a single member of the Conservative Party who thinks Boris is fit to be PM, yet they're voting for him. Even the Kipper entryists like @Viceroy_of_Orange can't seriously think he's to be trusted - why would they, in defiance of all experience? But a collective madness has taken over the Conservative Party.

    Anyway, my wife and I will be sending in our ballots shortly. It's no doubt a futile exercise, but one has to do one's democratic duty. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about drafting our resignation letter.

    Why is it Boris who cannot be trusted when he resigned in principle - when you all said he wouldn't - over her awful deal, but somehow Hunt is to be trusted when he's held every possible position on Brexit? He, May and the Grieve's of this world cannot be trusted.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,186

    My ballot came yesterday. Voted Boris.

    Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.

    Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x

    If Johnson fails on Brexit, will you admit that it’s Brexit that is the problem, not the leader?
    There is no "failing" on Brexit. Either they honour their word, or do not.

    If Boris doesn't do, then the Tory Party itself will have to go.
    And if Nigel Farage became PM and didn’t honour his word?
    You seem to be suggesting it is some impossibility. It really isn't. We're leaving a treaty and resuming a status we've had for 1,000 years. Like Australia. Canada. New Zealand. Telling us we can't have it when we can see it in front of us won't wash.
    A status we’ve had for 1,000 years? What would that be, because it certainly isn’t the UK.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,686
    glw said:

    Its the stupid look on Tory members faces that always baffles me, when Boris is mentioned or the prospect they might meet him. They seem impressed by him for some reason. I have never understood why people like him. Maybe he makes them laugh but he will not be putting smiles on peoples faces if he gets the keys to No.10!

    Of all the reasons there might be for picking a PM, "makes me laugh" should be near the bottom of the list.
    I agree. I think Johnson is a complete idiot. How anyone can take that sort of person seriously is beyond me. An interesting comparison of someone who was popular for doing shows like Have I got news for you was the late Charles Kennedy. Yet he was serious when indulging in political discourse, he knew there was a time for levity and a separate time for serious political business. Boris does not seem able to distinguish between the two! More importantly is the perception of people who have already formed an opinion on Boris Johnson and find everything amusing even when he is trying to be serious. Boris Johnson has a huge problem he has made for himself in the fact he cannot choose between being serious or amusing. Michael Portillo told him nearly two decades ago he would have to choose whether he liked light entertainment or serious lifechanging politics that can change the outcome of peoples lives. Boris did not choose either - he could not make the critical decision.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,237
    kle4 said:

    It's going to be a whupping. I do actually see why many Tories would back Boris, not just those yearning for no deal but also those who think he is a gamble worth taking to save the party, but even with that it is crazy he is so far out in front. I defy someone to tell me he is that amazing or Hunt that bad.

    There doesn't have to be a big gap though does there - he just has to be a bit more acceptable than the alternative.

    This race has been really fascinating to watch. I'm not sure if there has ever been a challenger who could have beaten Boris. If there was, I think it was Sajid Javid. And I say that as someone who wanted Leadsom. The Saj could perhaps have offered something a bit more exciting and inspiring when it came down to two, whilst still being thoroughly staunch on Brexit.
  • My ballot came yesterday. Voted Boris.

    Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.

    Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x

    If Johnson fails on Brexit, will you admit that it’s Brexit that is the problem, not the leader?
    There is no "failing" on Brexit. Either they honour their word, or do not.

    If Boris doesn't do, then the Tory Party itself will have to go.
    And if Nigel Farage became PM and didn’t honour his word?
    You seem to be suggesting it is some impossibility. It really isn't. We're leaving a treaty and resuming a status we've had for 1,000 years. Like Australia. Canada. New Zealand. Telling us we can't have it when we can see it in front of us won't wash.
    A status we’ve had for 1,000 years? What would that be, because it certainly isn’t the UK.
    The Kingdom of England and successor states. We're still operating on those constitutional foundations, in the same way that Russia did not begin in 1991 as a nation state.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,972

    It is a great mystery, certainly. I very much doubt if there's a single member of the Conservative Party who thinks Boris is fit to be PM, yet they're voting for him. Even the Kipper entryists like @Viceroy_of_Orange can't seriously think he's to be trusted - why would they, in defiance of all experience? But a collective madness has taken over the Conservative Party.

    Anyway, my wife and I will be sending in our ballots shortly. It's no doubt a futile exercise, but one has to do one's democratic duty. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about drafting our resignation letter.

    Will Nabbersexit happen before Brexit? :D
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887
    edited July 5

    It is a great mystery, certainly. I very much doubt if there's a single member of the Conservative Party who thinks Boris is fit to be PM, yet they're voting for him. Even the Kipper entryists like @Viceroy_of_Orange can't seriously think he's to be trusted - why would they, in defiance of all experience? But a collective madness has taken over the Conservative Party.

    Anyway, my wife and I will be sending in our ballots shortly. It's no doubt a futile exercise, but one has to do one's democratic duty. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about drafting our resignation letter.

    Why is it Boris who cannot be trusted when he resigned in principle - when you all said he wouldn't - over her awful deal, but somehow Hunt is to be trusted when he's held every possible position on Brexit? He, May and the Grieve's of this world cannot be trusted.
    Resigned in principle, several days after the cabinet meeting when it was approved, in panic after he thought David Davis had outflanked him, and later voted for it. Earlier he had stayed in the cabinet which approved the new Heathrow runway, which previously he had vowed to oppose so strongly that he'd lie in front of the bullddozers glued* to John McDonnell.

    Viceroy, you're a mug. You've bought his vows of fidelity like his various wives and mistresses did. More fool you - it's not as though his utter lack of any principles or trustworthiness was somehow hidden: it's out there as plain as a good British pikestaff.

    *OK, I made up the 'glued' bit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,972
    PB is going t be hilarious over the next fortnight,

    It'll be like End Of Days :D
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887
    GIN1138 said:

    It is a great mystery, certainly. I very much doubt if there's a single member of the Conservative Party who thinks Boris is fit to be PM, yet they're voting for him. Even the Kipper entryists like @Viceroy_of_Orange can't seriously think he's to be trusted - why would they, in defiance of all experience? But a collective madness has taken over the Conservative Party.

    Anyway, my wife and I will be sending in our ballots shortly. It's no doubt a futile exercise, but one has to do one's democratic duty. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about drafting our resignation letter.

    Will Nabbersexit happen before Brexit? :D
    Good question. Probably, because I think Brexit won't happen on October 31st.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,103
    edited July 5

    Resigned in principle, several days after the cabinet meeting when it was approved, in panic after he thought David Davis had outflanked him, and later voted for it. Earlier he had stayed in the cabinet which approved the new Heathrow runway, which previously he had vowed to oppose so strongly that he'd lie in front of the bullddozers glued* to John McDonnell.

    Viceroy, you're a mug. You bought his vows of fidelity like his various wives and mistresses did. More fool you - it's not as though his utter lack of any principles or trustworthiness was somehow hidden: it's out there as plain as a good British pikestaff.

    *OK, I made up the 'glued' bit.

    The only principle Boris has ever applied is "what's better for my leadership chances?" I don't even believe he's sincerely a Brexiteer.
  • Resigned in principle, several days after the cabinet meeting when it was approved, in panic after he thought David Davis had outflanked him, and later voted for it. Earlier he had stayed in the cabinet which approved the new Heathrow runway, which previously he had vowed to oppose so strongly that he'd lie in front of the bullddozers glued* to John McDonnell.

    Viceroy, you're a mug. You've bought his vows of fidelity like his various wives and mistresses did. More fool you - it's not as though his utter lack of any principles or trustworthiness was somehow hidden: it's out there as plain as a good British pikestaff.

    *OK, I made up the 'glued' bit.

    Literally couldn't care so long as he takes us out.

    And like I said, if he doesn't then he and his party are finished.

    Last chance saloon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    edited July 5
    So hopefully no more jibes then about how biased ConHome surveys are, given Hunt did better with ConHome this morning than he does with YouGov this evening
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887
    edited July 5

    Resigned in principle, several days after the cabinet meeting when it was approved, in panic after he thought David Davis had outflanked him, and later voted for it. Earlier he had stayed in the cabinet which approved the new Heathrow runway, which previously he had vowed to oppose so strongly that he'd lie in front of the bullddozers glued* to John McDonnell.

    Viceroy, you're a mug. You've bought his vows of fidelity like his various wives and mistresses did. More fool you - it's not as though his utter lack of any principles or trustworthiness was somehow hidden: it's out there as plain as a good British pikestaff.

    *OK, I made up the 'glued' bit.

    Literally couldn't care so long as he takes us out.

    And like I said, if he doesn't then he and his party are finished.

    Last chance saloon.
    The party is finished either way, at least until it comes back to its senses and allows some future David Cameron to drag it back into the real world, which is not going to happen anytime soon. However, of the two catastrophes facing it, crashing out with no deal is the worse; it will be blamed for a generation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    edited July 5
    Given IDS beat Clarke 61% to 39% in 2001 and Cameron beat Davis 68% to 32% in 2005 if YouGov is correct and Boris beats Hunt 74% to 26% that would be the biggest landslide in a Tory membership leadership ballot for Boris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540

    My ballot came yesterday. Voted Boris.

    Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.

    Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x

    If Johnson fails on Brexit, will you admit that it’s Brexit that is the problem, not the leader?
    There is no "failing" on Brexit. Either they honour their word, or do not.

    If Boris doesn't do, then the Tory Party itself will have to go.
    And if Nigel Farage became PM and didn’t honour his word?
    Farage as PM would go straight to No Deal, WTO terms without a thought
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,018
    ...and something that should worry both sides...

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,281

    My ballot came yesterday. Voted Boris.

    Joined the Tory Party, leavin Ukip, for this exact moment.

    Hope you Cameroons are delighted with your 24% x

    If Johnson fails on Brexit, will you admit that it’s Brexit that is the problem, not the leader?
    There is no "failing" on Brexit. Either they honour their word, or do not.

    If Boris doesn't do, then the Tory Party itself will have to go.
    And if Nigel Farage became PM and didn’t honour his word?
    You seem to be suggesting it is some impossibility. It really isn't. We're leaving a treaty and resuming a status we've had for 1,000 years. Like Australia. Canada. New Zealand. Telling us we can't have it when we can see it in front of us won't wash.
    A status we’ve had for 1,000 years? What would that be, because it certainly isn’t the UK.
    The Kingdom of England and successor states. We're still operating on those constitutional foundations, in the same way that Russia did not begin in 1991 as a nation state.
    What utter twaddle you write. If other Boris voters are as ignorant as you, little wonder they’ve fallen for him.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,310
    viewcode said:
    I drive past there every morning.

    To be honest it’s their own fault for being greedy and bidding too high.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    edited July 5
    Jeremy Hunt makes a last ditch bid to diehard Tory Unionists by trying a Mariano Rajoy tribute act and suggesting he would block indyref2 even if the SNP won a majority at the next Holyrood elections.

    Boris however did not explicitly rule out indyref2, although he said he was 'a passionate Unionist' and believed the 2014 referendum was a 'once in a generation' vote

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/search/?search=SNP&topic_id=8742
  • The party is finished either way, at least until it comes back to its senses and allows some future David Cameron to drag it back into the real world, which is not going to happen anytime soon. However, of the two catastrophes facing it, crashing out with no deal is the worse; it will be blamed for a generation.

    This here is exactly the problem with the party, that people like yourself are in it when you belong in the Liberal Democrats. David Cameron was a Liberal Democrat who was in the Conservative Party because of his background, not because of his beliefs.

    Once you've all defected to the Liberal Democrats - which must be soon going by these figures - maybe the party will get back on track to believing in something and doing conservative things.
  • Cyclefree said:

    What utter twaddle you write. If other Boris voters are as ignorant as you, little wonder they’ve fallen for him.

    Call me what you want.

    But in this ballot, like the referendum, I have a voice. And I will use it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977

    It is a great mystery, certainly. I very much doubt if there's a single member of the Conservative Party who thinks Boris is fit to be PM, yet they're voting for him. Even the Kipper entryists like @Viceroy_of_Orange can't seriously think he's to be trusted - why would they, in defiance of all experience? But a collective madness has taken over the Conservative Party.

    Anyway, my wife and I will be sending in our ballots shortly. It's no doubt a futile exercise, but one has to do one's democratic duty. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about drafting our resignation letter.

    Why is it Boris who cannot be trusted when he resigned in principle - when you all said he wouldn't - over her awful deal, but somehow Hunt is to be trusted when he's held every possible position on Brexit? He, May and the Grieve's of this world cannot be trusted.
    Resigned in principle, then voted for the deal that came out of the thing he resigned over?

    The party is finished either way, at least until it comes back to its senses and allows some future David Cameron to drag it back into the real world, which is not going to happen anytime soon. However, of the two catastrophes facing it, crashing out with no deal is the worse; it will be blamed for a generation.

    This here is exactly the problem with the party, that people like yourself are in it when you belong in the Liberal Democrats. David Cameron was a Liberal Democrat who was in the Conservative Party because of his background, not because of his beliefs.

    Once you've all defected to the Liberal Democrats - which must be soon going by these figures - maybe the party will get back on track to believing in something and doing conservative things.
    I love it when people seriously try to argue people who rose to be leaders of their parties, and won elections that way, were not really proper members of that party. Cameron, Blair, it seems extremists really hate leaders who win elections the 'wrong' way.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,686
    HYUFD said:

    Given IDS beat Clarke 61% to 39% in 2001 and Cameron beat Davis 68% to 32% in 2005 if YouGov is correct and Boris beats Hunt 74% to 26% that would be the biggest landslide in a Tory membership leadership ballot for Boris

    The Tories were a different party in 2001 compared to now. For starters I was a member back then! In 2001, the Tories had been in opposition for 4 years and were gradually building up foot soldiers again from the depletion between 1992- 1997. I do think the Tories have been infiltrated as if polls are to be believed on maintaining the UK or Brexit. Brexit wins by a large margin, the UK union 20 years ago would have been a pivotal issue where as now the people who are members only care about Europe.

    The way the party has evolved is unsustainable and will lead to its utter marginalisation. It fails to appeal to the broad coalition it once attracted and single issue politics is the road to ruin for a party that contests all areas of the UK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    HYUFD said:

    So hopefully no more jibes then about how biased ConHome surveys are, given Hunt did better with ConHome this morning than he does with YouGov this evening

    That isn't the main reason people object to way you report the surveys and you are not stupid enough not to know that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    glw said:

    Resigned in principle, several days after the cabinet meeting when it was approved, in panic after he thought David Davis had outflanked him, and later voted for it. Earlier he had stayed in the cabinet which approved the new Heathrow runway, which previously he had vowed to oppose so strongly that he'd lie in front of the bullddozers glued* to John McDonnell.

    Viceroy, you're a mug. You bought his vows of fidelity like his various wives and mistresses did. More fool you - it's not as though his utter lack of any principles or trustworthiness was somehow hidden: it's out there as plain as a good British pikestaff.

    *OK, I made up the 'glued' bit.

    The only principle Boris has ever applied is "what's better for my leadership chances?" I don't even believe he's sincerely a Brexiteer.
    Well under the true Brexiteer model he definitely isn't because he at least prefers a deal, and voted for May's surrender document and all that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540

    Resigned in principle, several days after the cabinet meeting when it was approved, in panic after he thought David Davis had outflanked him, and later voted for it. Earlier he had stayed in the cabinet which approved the new Heathrow runway, which previously he had vowed to oppose so strongly that he'd lie in front of the bullddozers glued* to John McDonnell.

    Viceroy, you're a mug. You've bought his vows of fidelity like his various wives and mistresses did. More fool you - it's not as though his utter lack of any principles or trustworthiness was somehow hidden: it's out there as plain as a good British pikestaff.

    *OK, I made up the 'glued' bit.

    Literally couldn't care so long as he takes us out.

    And like I said, if he doesn't then he and his party are finished.

    Last chance saloon.
    The party is finished either way, at least until it comes back to its senses and allows some future David Cameron to drag it back into the real world, which is not going to happen anytime soon. However, of the two catastrophes facing it, crashing out with no deal is the worse; it will be blamed for a generation.
    The party really will be finished if it does not deliver Brexit, the Brexit Party will overtake it as the main party of the right.

    If it delivers Brexit, Deal or No Deal, it may lose some Remain voters to the LDs but it will still be the main party of the right.

    Labour though if Corbynism retains control and it still refuses to commit to EUref2 or even full single market membership could well be overtaken as the main party of the centre left by the LDs
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,310

    HYUFD said:

    Given IDS beat Clarke 61% to 39% in 2001 and Cameron beat Davis 68% to 32% in 2005 if YouGov is correct and Boris beats Hunt 74% to 26% that would be the biggest landslide in a Tory membership leadership ballot for Boris

    The Tories were a different party in 2001 compared to now. For starters I was a member back then! In 2001, the Tories had been in opposition for 4 years and were gradually building up foot soldiers again from the depletion between 1992- 1997. I do think the Tories have been infiltrated as if polls are to be believed on maintaining the UK or Brexit. Brexit wins by a large margin, the UK union 20 years ago would have been a pivotal issue where as now the people who are members only care about Europe.

    The way the party has evolved is unsustainable and will lead to its utter marginalisation. It fails to appeal to the broad coalition it once attracted and single issue politics is the road to ruin for a party that contests all areas of the UK.
    Labour is no longer a broad church. The Tory Party is no longer a broad church.

    Here begins the era of the Lib Dems?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977

    kle4 said:

    It's going to be a whupping. I do actually see why many Tories would back Boris, not just those yearning for no deal but also those who think he is a gamble worth taking to save the party, but even with that it is crazy he is so far out in front. I defy someone to tell me he is that amazing or Hunt that bad.

    There doesn't have to be a big gap though does there - he just has to be a bit more acceptable than the alternative.
    But there is a huge gap, which I expect to be pretty much borne out in the voting. It's titanically huge, and whatever his qualities and Hunt's lack thereof, at least in the eyes of the target audience, the level of leads for Boris look absurd.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,686

    HYUFD said:

    Given IDS beat Clarke 61% to 39% in 2001 and Cameron beat Davis 68% to 32% in 2005 if YouGov is correct and Boris beats Hunt 74% to 26% that would be the biggest landslide in a Tory membership leadership ballot for Boris

    The Tories were a different party in 2001 compared to now. For starters I was a member back then! In 2001, the Tories had been in opposition for 4 years and were gradually building up foot soldiers again from the depletion between 1992- 1997. I do think the Tories have been infiltrated as if polls are to be believed on maintaining the UK or Brexit. Brexit wins by a large margin, the UK union 20 years ago would have been a pivotal issue where as now the people who are members only care about Europe.

    The way the party has evolved is unsustainable and will lead to its utter marginalisation. It fails to appeal to the broad coalition it once attracted and single issue politics is the road to ruin for a party that contests all areas of the UK.
    Labour is no longer a broad church. The Tory Party is no longer a broad church.

    Here begins the era of the Lib Dems?
    I voted for them in the Local elections and European elections this year and would vote for them in a GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977

    HYUFD said:

    Given IDS beat Clarke 61% to 39% in 2001 and Cameron beat Davis 68% to 32% in 2005 if YouGov is correct and Boris beats Hunt 74% to 26% that would be the biggest landslide in a Tory membership leadership ballot for Boris

    The Tories were a different party in 2001 compared to now. For starters I was a member back then! In 2001, the Tories had been in opposition for 4 years and were gradually building up foot soldiers again from the depletion between 1992- 1997. I do think the Tories have been infiltrated as if polls are to be believed on maintaining the UK or Brexit. Brexit wins by a large margin, the UK union 20 years ago would have been a pivotal issue where as now the people who are members only care about Europe.

    The way the party has evolved is unsustainable and will lead to its utter marginalisation. It fails to appeal to the broad coalition it once attracted and single issue politics is the road to ruin for a party that contests all areas of the UK.
    Labour is no longer a broad church. The Tory Party is no longer a broad church.

    Here begins the era of the Lib Dems?
    Not really, since they don't want to be a broad church either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So hopefully no more jibes then about how biased ConHome surveys are, given Hunt did better with ConHome this morning than he does with YouGov this evening

    That isn't the main reason people object to way you report the surveys and you are not stupid enough not to know that.
    Whether I call it a survey or a poll it does not really matter, that is just being pedantic for the sake of being pedantic, as it closely mirrors YouGov there is little reason to doubt its accuracy
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887

    The party is finished either way, at least until it comes back to its senses and allows some future David Cameron to drag it back into the real world, which is not going to happen anytime soon. However, of the two catastrophes facing it, crashing out with no deal is the worse; it will be blamed for a generation.

    This here is exactly the problem with the party, that people like yourself are in it when you belong in the Liberal Democrats. David Cameron was a Liberal Democrat who was in the Conservative Party because of his background, not because of his beliefs.

    Once you've all defected to the Liberal Democrats - which must be soon going by these figures - maybe the party will get back on track to believing in something and doing conservative things.
    Err, I've supported the Conservatives since 1964 when I was 9 years old and got hold of the manifestos of the then three main parties, deciding that the Conservative one made most sense. I've voted Conservative in every election (apart from one local election) since I reached voting age. I even voted Conservative in the recent Euro elections, which seems to be more than most Conservative Party members can claim. Margaret Thatcher is my political heroine. So I really don't think I need to take any lessons from a Kipper as to what a 'true Conservative' is.

    I certainly won't join the LibDems, but faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the Conservative Party seems determined to become indistinguishable from UKIP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    edited July 5

    HYUFD said:

    Given IDS beat Clarke 61% to 39% in 2001 and Cameron beat Davis 68% to 32% in 2005 if YouGov is correct and Boris beats Hunt 74% to 26% that would be the biggest landslide in a Tory membership leadership ballot for Boris

    The Tories were a different party in 2001 compared to now. For starters I was a member back then! In 2001, the Tories had been in opposition for 4 years and were gradually building up foot soldiers again from the depletion between 1992- 1997. I do think the Tories have been infiltrated as if polls are to be believed on maintaining the UK or Brexit. Brexit wins by a large margin, the UK union 20 years ago would have been a pivotal issue where as now the people who are members only care about Europe.

    The way the party has evolved is unsustainable and will lead to its utter marginalisation. It fails to appeal to the broad coalition it once attracted and single issue politics is the road to ruin for a party that contests all areas of the UK.
    In 2001 Hague suffered the second worst Tory defeat since 1832 in terms of votes and the third worst in terms of seats, if the Tories fail to commit to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal in October, they will face an even worse defeat than that and be overtaken by the Brexit Party
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    edited July 5

    Err, I've supported the Conservatives since 1964 when I was 9 years old and got hold of the manifestos of the then three main parties, deciding that the Conservative one made most sense. I've voted Conservative in every election (apart from one local election) since I reached voting age. I even voted Conservative in the recent Euro elections, which seems to be more than most Conservative Party members can claim. Margaret Thatcher is my political heroine. So I really don't think I need to take any lessons from a Kipper as to what a 'true Conservative' is.

    I certainly won't join the LibDems, but faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the Conservative Party seems determined to become indistinguishable from UKIP.

    Says he's a true Conservative then in the next breath says he'll vote for the left-wing Liberal Democrats who support a federal Europe thus proving my point entirely.

    Maybe you once were a conservative, but clearly no longer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    edited July 5
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So hopefully no more jibes then about how biased ConHome surveys are, given Hunt did better with ConHome this morning than he does with YouGov this evening

    That isn't the main reason people object to way you report the surveys and you are not stupid enough not to know that.
    Whether I call it a survey or a poll it does not really matter, that is just being pedantic for the sake of being pedantic, as it closely mirrors YouGov there is little reason to doubt its accuracy
    So you do know why many people objected (and it is fine that you disagree that the objection is valid) and yet acted as though it was solely about something else.

    And given you operate your own definitions of what constitutions a true Tory (it does not include people who vote Tory regularly or are longstanding members and insist they are Tories, if they take the wrong view) and of being a remainer (it does not include those who respevt democracy now despite voting remain like yourself, unless that person is a politician who voted remain even if they have voted multiple times to leave) I am curious that you would get huffy about people being unreasonably pedantic in their interpretation of the use of survey/poll.

    One cannot exercise extreme pedantry and then object to being turned against them, I thought that was a golden rule of PB.

    Pleasant night to all.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 14,972
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887
    edited July 5
    HYUFD said:


    The party really will be finished if it does not deliver Brexit, the Brexit Party will overtake it as the main party of the right.

    If it delivers Brexit, Deal or No Deal, it may lose some Remain voters to the LDs but it will still be the main party of the right.

    Labour though if Corbynism retains control and it still refuses to commit to EUref2 or even full single market membership could well be overtaken as the main party of the centre left by the LDs

    I agree that the party will be finished if it doesn't deliver Brexit. That's because it has signed up to a suicide pact.

    Your big mistake is failing to understand that it will also be finished - in fact, in an even worse state - if it does deliver Brexit by the unthinkable route of crashing us out in chaos. It is utter madness, which no sentient government or party should even begin to contemplate. The polling support for crashing out in chaos, which you are fond of quoting, and which is based entirely on a naïve frustration with the fact that Labour and the ERG have conspired to sabotage Brexit, will disintegrate in weeks when it hits the reality of crashing out.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,103

    Err, I've supported the Conservatives since 1964 when I was 9 years old and got hold of the manifestos of the then three main parties, deciding that the Conservative one made most sense. I've voted Conservative in every election (apart from one local election) since I reached voting age. I even voted Conservative in the recent Euro elections, which seems to be more than most Conservative Party members can claim. Margaret Thatcher is my political heroine. So I really don't think I need to take any lessons from a Kipper as to what a 'true Conservative' is.

    I certainly won't join the LibDems, but faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the Conservative Party seems determined to become indistinguishable from UKIP.

    That you of all people are being dismissed as not a Tory just shows how mad it has all got.

    When it all comes crashing down the ex-Kippers will leave the Conservative Party to go back to Nigel, and blame the remaining Conservative members for being not Tory enough.
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    edited July 5
    glw said:

    That you of all people are being dismissed as not a Tory just shows how mad it has all got.

    When it all comes crashing down the ex-Kippers will leave the Conservative Party to go back to Nigel, and blame the remaining Conservative members for being not Tory enough.

    Either way, Farage wins.

    He has completely transformed the centre-right/right in this country. Not in terms of views as Tory voters have always held these view, but in terms of how they are expressed/implemented.

    He's the British answer to Canada's Preston Manning who transformed right wing politics in the Dominion during the 1990s.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887

    Says he's a true Conservative then in the next breath says he'll vote for the left-wing Liberal Democrats who support a federal Europe thus proving my point entirely.

    Maybe you once were a conservative, but clearly no longer.

    It doesn't prove your point at all. I don't support the LibDem policy on Brexit, or indeed on lots of other things. But, as I said, faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the alternatives are either Corbyn's Labour, or a party which has taken over the name of the Conservative Party but which is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, serious, business-friendly, non-ideological, financially sound party of good government which is the essence of Conservatism.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    edited July 5
    Greening and Lee have been very quiet recently?
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    edited July 5

    Says he's a true Conservative then in the next breath says he'll vote for the left-wing Liberal Democrats who support a federal Europe thus proving my point entirely.

    Maybe you once were a conservative, but clearly no longer.

    It doesn't prove your point at all. I don't support the LibDem policy on Brexit, or indeed on lots of other things. But, as I said, faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the alternatives are either Corbyn's Labour, or a party which has taken over the name of the Conservative Party but which is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, serious, business-friendly, non-ideological, financially sound party of good government which is the essence of Conservatism.
    Non-ideological is just another way of saying you don't believe in anything and will follow the centre-left on everything but with lower taxes to protect all those second homes in London. Aka a description of David Cameron.

    For everyone else outside of that bracket, we actually want conservative politics and not just social liberal guff and low tax bands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    edited July 5

    Says he's a true Conservative then in the next breath says he'll vote for the left-wing Liberal Democrats who support a federal Europe thus proving my point entirely.

    Maybe you once were a conservative, but clearly no longer.

    It doesn't prove your point at all. I don't support the LibDem policy on Brexit, or indeed on lots of other things. But, as I said, faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the alternatives are either Corbyn's Labour, or a party which has taken over the name of the Conservative Party but which is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, serious, business-friendly, non-ideological, financially sound party of good government which is the essence of Conservatism.
    The essence of Conservatism is support for national sovereignty, the family and the rule of law and in Britain the monarchy, your definition could equally apply to the Liberal Party
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,543

    Err, I've supported the Conservatives since 1964 when I was 9 years old and got hold of the manifestos of the then three main parties, deciding that the Conservative one made most sense. I've voted Conservative in every election (apart from one local election) since I reached voting age. I even voted Conservative in the recent Euro elections, which seems to be more than most Conservative Party members can claim. Margaret Thatcher is my political heroine. So I really don't think I need to take any lessons from a Kipper as to what a 'true Conservative' is.

    I certainly won't join the LibDems, but faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the Conservative Party seems determined to become indistinguishable from UKIP.

    Says he's a true Conservative then in the next breath says he'll vote for the left-wing Liberal Democrats who support a federal Europe thus proving my point entirely.

    Maybe you once were a conservative, but clearly no longer.
    You are brilliant. Please stay around here and keep posting.

    You will bring @RochdalePioneers some relief as he battles the entity that is @TheJezziah. He will giggle and rightly so at your declarations and declamations.

    Perhaps between you and @HYUFD you could draw up the rules of conservative party membership. Just some of the basics will be fine so we can begin to weed out the imposters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234

    It is a great mystery, certainly. I very much doubt if there's a single member of the Conservative Party who thinks Boris is fit to be PM, yet they're voting for him. Even the Kipper entryists like @Viceroy_of_Orange can't seriously think he's to be trusted - why would they, in defiance of all experience? But a collective madness has taken over the Conservative Party.

    Anyway, my wife and I will be sending in our ballots shortly. It's no doubt a futile exercise, but one has to do one's democratic duty. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about drafting our resignation letter.

    Why is it Boris who cannot be trusted when he resigned in principle - when you all said he wouldn't - over her awful deal, but somehow Hunt is to be trusted when he's held every possible position on Brexit? He, May and the Grieve's of this world cannot be trusted.
    Since when was “panicking at seeing David Davis running for the door” a principle?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887
    edited July 5

    Says he's a true Conservative then in the next breath says he'll vote for the left-wing Liberal Democrats who support a federal Europe thus proving my point entirely.

    Maybe you once were a conservative, but clearly no longer.

    It doesn't prove your point at all. I don't support the LibDem policy on Brexit, or indeed on lots of other things. But, as I said, faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the alternatives are either Corbyn's Labour, or a party which has taken over the name of the Conservative Party but which is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, serious, business-friendly, non-ideological, financially sound party of good government which is the essence of Conservatism.
    Non-ideological is just another way of saying you don't believe in anything and will follow the centre-left on everything. Aka a description of David Cameron.
    Ah, the old 'don't believe in anything' garbage. That normally means, as in this case, 'doesn't believe in my irrational and extreme view'.

    But enjoy yourself while you can. It's hilarious to watch you putting your naïve trust in Boris, of all people - he's actually somewhat to the left of Cameron and of me, inasmuch as he has any political position.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,948

    It is a great mystery, certainly. I very much doubt if there's a single member of the Conservative Party who thinks Boris is fit to be PM, yet they're voting for him. Even the Kipper entryists like @Viceroy_of_Orange can't seriously think he's to be trusted - why would they, in defiance of all experience? But a collective madness has taken over the Conservative Party.

    Anyway, my wife and I will be sending in our ballots shortly. It's no doubt a futile exercise, but one has to do one's democratic duty. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about drafting our resignation letter.

    Why does it take drafting?
  • Viceroy_of_OrangeViceroy_of_Orange Posts: 172
    edited July 5



    Ah, the old 'don't believe in anything' garbage. That normally means, as in this case, 'doesn't believe in my irrational and extreme view'.

    But enjoy yourself while you can. It's hilarious to watch you putting your naïve trust in Boris, of all people - he's actually somewhat to the left of Cameron and of me, inasmuch as he has any political position.

    I know Boris is a social liberal.

    But for now, national independence is the goal and he is best placed to deliver. Once completed, we can move onto our next projects. My post-Brexit priorities are grammar schools, the death penalty, foreign aid and strict immigration controls like Australia.

    I look forward to pushing the party in that direction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So hopefully no more jibes then about how biased ConHome surveys are, given Hunt did better with ConHome this morning than he does with YouGov this evening

    That isn't the main reason people object to way you report the surveys and you are not stupid enough not to know that.
    Whether I call it a survey or a poll it does not really matter, that is just being pedantic for the sake of being pedantic, as it closely mirrors YouGov there is little reason to doubt its accuracy
    So you do know why many people objected (and it is fine that you disagree that the objection is valid) and yet acted as though it was solely about something else.

    And given you operate your own definitions of what constitutions a true Tory (it does not include people who vote Tory regularly or are longstanding members and insist they are Tories, if they take the wrong view) and of being a remainer (it does not include those who respevt democracy now despite voting remain like yourself, unless that person is a politician who voted remain even if they have voted multiple times to leave) I am curious that you would get huffy about people being unreasonably pedantic in their interpretation of the use of survey/poll.

    One cannot exercise extreme pedantry and then object to being turned against them, I thought that was a golden rule of PB.

    Pleasant night to all.
    If a person voted to Remain then does not commit to Leave Deal or No Deal then clearly they are trying to stop Brexit
  • glwglw Posts: 5,103
    TOPPING said:

    You are brilliant. Please stay around here and keep posting.

    You will bring @RochdalePioneers some relief as he battles the entity that is @TheJezziah. He will giggle and rightly so at your declarations and declamations.

    Perhaps between you and @HYUFD you could draw up the rules of conservative party membership. Just some of the basics will be fine so we can begin to weed out the imposters.

    The thing about fanatics dividing the true believers up into ever smaller factions is that eventually they always tend to a size of 1, at which point they are at war with literally everyone else.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,186

    I look forward to pushing the party in that direction.

    From Spain?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,913

    The party is finished either way, at least until it comes back to its senses and allows some future David Cameron to drag it back into the real world, which is not going to happen anytime soon. However, of the two catastrophes facing it, crashing out with no deal is the worse; it will be blamed for a generation.

    This here is exactly the problem with the party, that people like yourself are in it when you belong in the Liberal Democrats. David Cameron was a Liberal Democrat who was in the Conservative Party because of his background, not because of his beliefs.

    Once you've all defected to the Liberal Democrats - which must be soon going by these figures - maybe the party will get back on track to believing in something and doing conservative things.
    And the rump Conservative Party will be out of power for ever. Hurrah!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 25,780

    Says he's a true Conservative then in the next breath says he'll vote for the left-wing Liberal Democrats who support a federal Europe thus proving my point entirely.

    Maybe you once were a conservative, but clearly no longer.

    It doesn't prove your point at all. I don't support the LibDem policy on Brexit, or indeed on lots of other things. But, as I said, faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the alternatives are either Corbyn's Labour, or a party which has taken over the name of the Conservative Party but which is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, serious, business-friendly, non-ideological, financially sound party of good government which is the essence of Conservatism.
    Non-ideological is just another way of saying you don't believe in anything and will follow the centre-left on everything but with lower taxes to protect all those second homes in London. Aka a description of David Cameron.
    I'm not sure that's true.

    I take non-ideological to mean, simply, evidence based.

    Take law-and-order. My view is that we want to achieve four goals:

    - low levels of initial crimes comitted
    - low levels of reoffending (or high levels of rehabilitation, if you prefer)
    - respect for the rule of law
    - good value for money

    We therefore need to experiment with different approaches to achieve those goals. It might be that the correct way to achieve these is via longer sentences, in that the savings from lower levels of offending make up for increased cost of incarceration. It may mean that spending should be focused on rehabilitation in jails, because that lowers recividism rates. Non-ideological, in this case, merely reflects the fact that I don't know the answers.

    And this approach should be taken in other areas, such as education. The only way to truly know what works is to experiment and see what improves outcomes, and value for money.

    Ideological, in these spheres, means coming to a conclusion about what the answer is, and often ignoring all the evidence to the contrary.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    I’ll say one thing for the LibDems: despite all of its ups and downs, I can’t imagine the party ever getting to the stage where large numbers of its members are telling me that I am not liberal enough and should f**k off and join some other party where I belong.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838
    A year ago I was buying Boris at 9.4.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540

    HYUFD said:


    The party really will be finished if it does not deliver Brexit, the Brexit Party will overtake it as the main party of the right.

    If it delivers Brexit, Deal or No Deal, it may lose some Remain voters to the LDs but it will still be the main party of the right.

    Labour though if Corbynism retains control and it still refuses to commit to EUref2 or even full single market membership could well be overtaken as the main party of the centre left by the LDs

    I agree that the party will be finished if it doesn't deliver Brexit. That's because it has signed up to a suicide pact.

    Your big mistake is failing to understand that it will also be finished - in fact, in an even worse state - if it does deliver Brexit by the unthinkable route of crashing us out in chaos. It is utter madness, which no sentient government or party should even begin to contemplate. The polling support for crashing out in chaos, which you are fond of quoting, and which is based entirely on a naïve frustration with the fact that Labour and the ERG have conspired to sabotage Brexit, will disintegrate in weeks when it hits the reality of crashing out.
    On a No Deal Brexit, even as an economic disaster, the most that will happen is the Tories fall back to 25 to 30% and a Labour and LD coalition government takes over.

    If the Tories fail to deliver Brexit they could fall back to the 9% they got in the European elections with the Brexit Party on 30%+
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,948

    The party is finished either way, at least until it comes back to its senses and allows some future David Cameron to drag it back into the real world, which is not going to happen anytime soon. However, of the two catastrophes facing it, crashing out with no deal is the worse; it will be blamed for a generation.

    This here is exactly the problem with the party, that people like yourself are in it when you belong in the Liberal Democrats. David Cameron was a Liberal Democrat who was in the Conservative Party because of his background, not because of his beliefs.

    Once you've all defected to the Liberal Democrats - which must be soon going by these figures - maybe the party will get back on track to believing in something and doing conservative things.
    I don’t believe you understand the core of the Conservative party

    I wrote a thread on it a while back - if someone could kindly link to it you might find it interesting

    In short you are an Ultra/Ditcher. That’s part of the Conservative tradition but not the whole. @Richard_Nabavi and myself are One Nation (I’m more Whiggish than he is). @TheScreamingEagles is a Radical.

    There is room for us all in the party
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 23,838
    IanB2 said:

    I’ll say one thing for the LibDems: despite all of its ups and downs, I can’t imagine the party ever getting to the stage where large numbers of its members are telling me that I am not liberal enough and should f**k off and join some other party where I belong.

    :lol:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So hopefully no more jibes then about how biased ConHome surveys are, given Hunt did better with ConHome this morning than he does with YouGov this evening

    That isn't the main reason people object to way you report the surveys and you are not stupid enough not to know that.
    Whether I call it a survey or a poll it does not really matter, that is just being pedantic for the sake of being pedantic, as it closely mirrors YouGov there is little reason to doubt its accuracy
    So you do know why many people objected (and it is fine that you disagree that the objection is valid) and yet acted as though it was solely about something else.

    And given you operate your own definitions of what constitutions a true Tory (it does not include people who vote Tory regularly or are longstanding members and insist they are Tories, if they take the wrong view) and of being a remainer (it does not include those who respevt democracy now despite voting remain like yourself, unless that person is a politician who voted remain even if they have voted multiple times to leave) I am curious that you would get huffy about people being unreasonably pedantic in their interpretation of the use of survey/poll.

    One cannot exercise extreme pedantry and then object to being turned against them, I thought that was a golden rule of PB.

    Pleasant night to all.
    If a person voted to Remain then does not commit to Leave Deal or No Deal then clearly they are trying to stop Brexit
    This all is a real primer on how many of the terrible decisions and actions of history came to be made.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 2,952
    HYUFD said:


    If a person voted to Remain then does not commit to Leave Deal or No Deal then clearly they are trying to stop Brexit

    There are people whose preference order is Deal > Remain > No Deal, and indeed those whose order is No Deal > Remain > Deal (the ones saying that May's Deal was worse than Remain).

    Now, I suppose some people may claim to be in either one of those groups disingenuously, really wanting to advance the cause of Remain. But are you saying that nobody is genuinely in one of those groups?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,543



    Ah, the old 'don't believe in anything' garbage. That normally means, as in this case, 'doesn't believe in my irrational and extreme view'.

    But enjoy yourself while you can. It's hilarious to watch you putting your naïve trust in Boris, of all people - he's actually somewhat to the left of Cameron and of me, inasmuch as he has any political position.

    I know Boris is a social liberal.

    But for now, national independence is the goal and he is best placed to deliver. Once completed, we can move onto our next projects. My post-Brexit priorities are grammar schools, the death penalty, foreign aid and strict immigration controls like Australia.

    I look forward to pushing the party in that direction.
    Another classic. You are truly a guinea a minute.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    IanB2 said:

    I’ll say one thing for the LibDems: despite all of its ups and downs, I can’t imagine the party ever getting to the stage where large numbers of its members are telling me that I am not liberal enough and should f**k off and join some other party where I belong.

    If you had a LD member who was anti gay marriage, wanted immigration slashed and was pro hard Brexit or pro nationalisation of the railways and a 70% top income tax rate and more power for the Unions I suspect many LD members would actually tell them to do just that and f**k off to another party
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,186
    Charles said:

    There is room for us all in the party

    I thought you said you weren't in the party?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,543

    HYUFD said:


    If a person voted to Remain then does not commit to Leave Deal or No Deal then clearly they are trying to stop Brexit

    There are people whose preference order is Deal > Remain > No Deal, and indeed those whose order is No Deal > Remain > Deal (the ones saying that May's Deal was worse than Remain).

    Now, I suppose some people may claim to be in either one of those groups disingenuously, really wanting to advance the cause of Remain. But are you saying that nobody is genuinely in one of those groups?
    Are you trying to wiggle out of @HYUFD’s master blueprint? Futile.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    The party really will be finished if it does not deliver Brexit, the Brexit Party will overtake it as the main party of the right.

    If it delivers Brexit, Deal or No Deal, it may lose some Remain voters to the LDs but it will still be the main party of the right.

    Labour though if Corbynism retains control and it still refuses to commit to EUref2 or even full single market membership could well be overtaken as the main party of the centre left by the LDs

    I agree that the party will be finished if it doesn't deliver Brexit. That's because it has signed up to a suicide pact.

    Your big mistake is failing to understand that it will also be finished - in fact, in an even worse state - if it does deliver Brexit by the unthinkable route of crashing us out in chaos. It is utter madness, which no sentient government or party should even begin to contemplate. The polling support for crashing out in chaos, which you are fond of quoting, and which is based entirely on a naïve frustration with the fact that Labour and the ERG have conspired to sabotage Brexit, will disintegrate in weeks when it hits the reality of crashing out.
    On a No Deal Brexit, even as an economic disaster, the most that will happen is the Tories fall back to 25 to 30% and a Labour and LD coalition government takes over.

    If the Tories fail to deliver Brexit they could fall back to the 9% they got in the European elections with the Brexit Party on 30%+
    For today’s Tories, “even as an economic disaster” trips so lightly into being a subordinate clause.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    PClipp said:

    The party is finished either way, at least until it comes back to its senses and allows some future David Cameron to drag it back into the real world, which is not going to happen anytime soon. However, of the two catastrophes facing it, crashing out with no deal is the worse; it will be blamed for a generation.

    This here is exactly the problem with the party, that people like yourself are in it when you belong in the Liberal Democrats. David Cameron was a Liberal Democrat who was in the Conservative Party because of his background, not because of his beliefs.

    Once you've all defected to the Liberal Democrats - which must be soon going by these figures - maybe the party will get back on track to believing in something and doing conservative things.
    And the rump Conservative Party will be out of power for ever. Hurrah!
    It won't, even when the Tories opposed the Corn Law repeal and the Liberals then had their dominance under Palmerston they got back into power with Disraeli
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,913
    kle4 said:

    The Tories were a different party in 2001 compared to now. For starters I was a member back then! In 2001, the Tories had been in opposition for 4 years and were gradually building up foot soldiers again from the depletion between 1992- 1997. I do think the Tories have been infiltrated as if polls are to be believed on maintaining the UK or Brexit. Brexit wins by a large margin, the UK union 20 years ago would have been a pivotal issue where as now the people who are members only care about Europe.
    The way the party has evolved is unsustainable and will lead to its utter marginalisation. It fails to appeal to the broad coalition it once attracted and single issue politics is the road to ruin for a party that contests all areas of the UK.

    Labour is no longer a broad church. The Tory Party is no longer a broad church.
    Here begins the era of the Lib Dems?
    Not really, since they don't want to be a broad church either.
    I thought we did.... At least broad enough to take power again, after a hundred years of illiberal and incompetent governments.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    edited July 5
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’ll say one thing for the LibDems: despite all of its ups and downs, I can’t imagine the party ever getting to the stage where large numbers of its members are telling me that I am not liberal enough and should f**k off and join some other party where I belong.

    If you had a LD member who was anti gay marriage, wanted immigration slashed and was pro hard Brexit or pro nationalisation of the railways and a 70% top income tax rate and more power for the Unions I suspect many LD members would actually tell them to do just that and f**k off to another party
    And that’s really your best analogy for the likes of Topping, Richard_N, TSE and Big_G?

    You are in any case missing the point. I joined the party as a schoolboy and have been with them ever since. Your description hardly fits.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887
    HYUFD said:

    On a No Deal Brexit, even as an economic disaster, the most that will happen is the Tories fall back to 25 to 30% and a Labour and LD coalition government takes over.

    If the Tories fail to deliver Brexit they could fall back to the 9% they got in the European elections with the Brexit Party on 30%+

    All that may be true, in the short term. It doesn't invalidate my point.

    In any case the more important consideration is what's good for the country. That seems to be of no significance in your analysis.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,269
    viewcode said:
    That's business in a nutshell. They tried to gouge the Govt. on price, because it would be too embarassing to have blue passports made by....

    They were told where to get off.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,103
    IanB2 said:

    I’ll say one thing for the LibDems: despite all of its ups and downs, I can’t imagine the party ever getting to the stage where large numbers of its members are telling me that I am not liberal enough and should f**k off and join some other party where I belong.

    If nothing else the Lib Dems ought to now be extremely wary about large numbers of new members joining them. Anyone thinking "it can't happen to us, we're the nice party" is being reckless.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,543
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    The party really will be finished if it does not deliver Brexit, the Brexit Party will overtake it as the main party of the right.

    If it delivers Brexit, Deal or No Deal, it may lose some Remain voters to the LDs but it will still be the main party of the right.

    Labour though if Corbynism retains control and it still refuses to commit to EUref2 or even full single market membership could well be overtaken as the main party of the centre left by the LDs

    I agree that the party will be finished if it doesn't deliver Brexit. That's because it has signed up to a suicide pact.

    Your big mistake is failing to understand that it will also be finished - in fact, in an even worse state - if it does deliver Brexit by the unthinkable route of crashing us out in chaos. It is utter madness, which no sentient government or party should even begin to contemplate. The polling support for crashing out in chaos, which you are fond of quoting, and which is based entirely on a naïve frustration with the fact that Labour and the ERG have conspired to sabotage Brexit, will disintegrate in weeks when it hits the reality of crashing out.
    ...even as an economic disaster, the most that will happen is the Tories fall back to 25 to 30%...
    Listen to yourself.

    You are seeking election and have a complete disregard for the public good. You have gone mad.

    Sorry but you are simply unfit for office.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 22,887
    I'm a bit sceptical about the line that LibDems are one happy family. Isn't that because a load of them left in disgust because Clegg had the temerity to carry out the stated party policy of working with either of the two main parties?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,948

    Charles said:

    There is room for us all in the party

    I thought you said you weren't in the party?
    I’m not a member.

    But we pledged our support for the Tories a few years ago and that pledge still binds us.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,543
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    There is room for us all in the party

    I thought you said you weren't in the party?
    I’m not a member.

    But we pledged our support for the Tories a few years ago and that pledge still binds us.
    Are you a grandmother yet?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,281

    Cyclefree said:

    What utter twaddle you write. If other Boris voters are as ignorant as you, little wonder they’ve fallen for him.

    Call me what you want.

    But in this ballot, like the referendum, I have a voice. And I will use it.
    Indeed. And I have a vote too and will use it at the next election.

    Says he's a true Conservative then in the next breath says he'll vote for the left-wing Liberal Democrats who support a federal Europe thus proving my point entirely.

    Maybe you once were a conservative, but clearly no longer.

    It doesn't prove your point at all. I don't support the LibDem policy on Brexit, or indeed on lots of other things. But, as I said, faute de mieux I might have to vote for them, given that the alternatives are either Corbyn's Labour, or a party which has taken over the name of the Conservative Party but which is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, serious, business-friendly, non-ideological, financially sound party of good government which is the essence of Conservatism.
    Non-ideological is just another way of saying you don't believe in anything and will follow the centre-left on everything but with lower taxes to protect all those second homes in London. Aka a description of David Cameron.

    For everyone else outside of that bracket, we actually want conservative politics and not just social liberal guff and low tax bands.
    Brexit is a profoundly unconservative policy. If it is anything it is a revolutionary act, certainly in the way in which it is proposed, which will likely cause harm to the country you claim to love. Gradual incremental change is the essence of Conservatism. Whatever you are, you are not a Conservative.
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