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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The man or the message?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The man or the message?

The recent decision by Iran to start enriching uranium, in breach of the JCPOA, shortly after the attack on two ships in the Gulf of Oman is a reminder of the Middle East’s penchant for unpleasant surprises.  No sooner had the attack happened, than the US, followed by Britain, asserted Iran’s responsibility.  There was intelligence proving this.  Unsurprisingly perhaps, Corbyn queried its reliability and, even more predictably, was slapped down by the Foreign Secretary.

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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,905
    edited July 6
    Unremarked at the time was that while Corbyn called for de-escalation, so did the Foreign Secretary: We want to de-escalate the situation but we are of course extremely worried.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7172895/Britain-consider-joining-military-assault-Iran-Jeremy-Hunt-says.html

    Which also seems to have been the position of the United States, as President Trump cancelled a planned attack on Iran.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,385
    edited July 6
    First, like Boris!

    Edit: OK, Second like Hunt...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 47,080
    Take Back Control of Our Borde....

    Oh, wait

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    Yes, he's within his rights to question it, although it would be highly surprising if anyone else was responsible. Nobody else has anything to gain, for a start.

    But with Corbyn there is always a suspicion that he's questioning it because he doesn't want to support the US or UK in anything, and admires potential enemies more than his own government - a circumstance not helped by his long and lucrative links with Iranian TV, an arm of their government.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,325
    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    FPT:
    Scott_P said:

    I am not sure it matters as I don't think anyone believes him, but the logic of this is that BoZo would sacrifice Brexit to save the Union



    I wonder how many of the Little Englanders who already voted for him are signed up to that...

    It is quite possible that - now most ballots are cast but the campaign is *officially* still ongoing, Boris might start shifting his position away from some of his more extreme remarks?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,325
    Scott_P said:

    Take Back Control of Our Borde....

    Oh, wait

    The real human cost of Freedom of Movement and the Single Market came out this week with the news of up to 400 Polish men tricked into coming to the UK with a promise of work and effectively kept as slaves.

    I am absolutely convinced that is the tip of a huge iceberg of human exploitation. There are plenty of stories of three bedroom semi detached houses with 20 or more people living in them - the new slums.

    While very many of those who come to the UK come to work and work hard and live within the law, we have also allowed in those who are less willing to go down that route and such individuals and groups are an integral part of organised crime in parts of London and elsewhere.

    I'm surprised Boris hasn't spoken to the Police about this - perhaps he couldn't find a policeman in London, after all, he cut their numbers and closed the stations.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,905
    Scott_P said:

    Take Back Control of Our Borde....

    Oh, wait

    The huge implication being Dan Hodges was unaware Boris has been saying this for years, including as Mayor and during the Brexit referendum?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    IanB2 said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    I am not sure it matters as I don't think anyone believes him, but the logic of this is that BoZo would sacrifice Brexit to save the Union



    I wonder how many of the Little Englanders who already voted for him are signed up to that...

    It is quite possible that - now most ballots are cast but the campaign is *officially* still ongoing, Boris might start shifting his position away from some of his more extreme remarks?
    He didn't say that actually, unlike Hunt he did not try and copy Rajoy and say he would block indyref2 even if an SNP Holyrood majority though he was 'a passionate Unionist' he said.

    In Northern Ireland he has already voted for the backstop at MV3 even if he wants to try and renegotiate it to a technical solution to the Irish border straight away
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is
    Or as featured on Newsnight last night Boris is forced to abandon no deal and has to go for an extension
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    edited July 6
    Scott_P said:

    Take Back Control of Our Borde....

    Oh, wait

    Boris has said he wants an Australian style points system for migrants, no inconsistency there

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/26/boris-johnson-promises-australian-style-points-system-immigration/?hootPostID=2cca6bcfc505cc384100ad4e1d0063aa.

    If you are an anti immigration hardliner you will be voting Brexit Party anyway and probably voted UKIP in 2015 too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is
    Or as featured on Newsnight last night Boris is forced to abandon no deal and has to go for an extension
    He will likely call a general election well before October or lose a VONC anyway but he will go to No Deal rather than extend again
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 600
    I think there is a "conflict of interest" here in the role of Leader of the Opposition.
    On the one hand LotO should be holding the government to account and making sure the government does not overstep the line. On the otherhand the LotO is expected to show that he/she is qualified to be prime minister.*

    In the area of military conflict this dichotomy is particularly noticeable: if you do not challenge the intelligence and government statements then you might end up letting the PM get away with it and neglecting your duty as LotO (IDS). If you do challenge the govenment's stance then you seriously risk being labelled as not prepared to take your country to war (Foot, Milliband, Corbyn). It is possible to navigate down the middle of this but it is a fine line to find. AFAIR Kinnock got this right in the first Gulf War, but then the start of that war was completely uncontroversial.

    *Curiously, the opposition party needs to show that the leader is PM material, but if changing the leader when in government this ceases to be a requirement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    eristdoof said:

    I think there is a "conflict of interest" here in the role of Leader of the Opposition.
    On the one hand LotO should be holding the government to account and making sure the government does not overstep the line. On the otherhand the LotO is expected to show that he/she is qualified to be prime minister.*

    In the area of military conflict this dichotomy is particularly noticeable: if you do not challenge the intelligence and government statements then you might end up letting the PM get away with it and neglecting your duty as LotO (IDS). If you do challenge the govenment's stance then you seriously risk being labelled as not prepared to take your country to war (Foot, Milliband, Corbyn). It is possible to navigate down the middle of this but it is a fine line to find. AFAIR Kinnock got this right in the first Gulf War, but then the start of that war was completely uncontroversial.

    *Curiously, the opposition party needs to show that the leader is PM material, but if changing the leader when in government this ceases to be a requirement.

    Foot supported Thatcher over the Falklands, although there was plenty to criticise about the way the operation was handled.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,325
    HYUFD said:


    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is

    Boris voted for the WA once and opposed it twice. In what way had the WA changed between the three occasions? To cut through the nonsense, he voted for it when he thought it would get through and he wanted to be on the winning side - he miscalculated and that leaves him open to Farage and TBP who will claim he is insincere about leaving without a WA.

    Let's pick out the options then:
    HYUFD said:


    either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal

    That won't happen because the Faragists want us to leave without a Deal and there are more than enough of them to block any hopes of a Conservative majority.
    HYUFD said:


    or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is

    Okay. At some point in September (perhaps during the Labour Conference), Boris announces there is no agreement with the EU and we will leave on 31/10 with No Deal but to confirm that is the people's will he will call a GE for say October 17th on a No Deal vs Remain platform.

    He has to do the GE to stop the Commons turning on him and blocking a No Deal BUT that only works if Labour are stupid enough to fall into the elephant trap of wanting the election - that means it'll probably work.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 1,924
    Leaving with no deal and preserving the Union at the same time aren’t possible .

    Certainly the membership are happy to sacrifice everything to get their no deal fantasy .

    May for all her faults realized that . She at least won’t be remembered for destroying the UK .

    And for Bozo does he want to be the PM who did that .
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,237
    edited July 6
    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 348
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is
    Or as featured on Newsnight last night Boris is forced to abandon no deal and has to go for an extension
    He will likely call a general election well before October or lose a VONC anyway but he will go to No Deal rather than extend again
    You seem very confident that these are the options. Could you give us a detailed timeline for each of them please?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,237
    Thanks Cyclefree for a very thoughtful thread.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 52,883
    Good threader header
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,287

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 600
    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    I think there is a "conflict of interest" here in the role of Leader of the Opposition.
    On the one hand LotO should be holding the government to account and making sure the government does not overstep the line. On the otherhand the LotO is expected to show that he/she is qualified to be prime minister.*

    In the area of military conflict this dichotomy is particularly noticeable: if you do not challenge the intelligence and government statements then you might end up letting the PM get away with it and neglecting your duty as LotO (IDS). If you do challenge the govenment's stance then you seriously risk being labelled as not prepared to take your country to war (Foot, Milliband, Corbyn). It is possible to navigate down the middle of this but it is a fine line to find. AFAIR Kinnock got this right in the first Gulf War, but then the start of that war was completely uncontroversial.

    *Curiously, the opposition party needs to show that the leader is PM material, but if changing the leader when in government this ceases to be a requirement.

    Foot supported Thatcher over the Falklands, although there was plenty to criticise about the way the operation was handled.
    I seem to remember that Foot was in favour of sending the Navy and Marines to the Falkland Islands during the emergency commons debate held on a Saturday Morning, but once the military were there, he was not supportve of the actual combat.

    I must admit that it was a long time ago, I was barely a teenager then and I was brought up in one of the most Conservative parts of the country and only had the Telegraph at home to read.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is
    Or as featured on Newsnight last night Boris is forced to abandon no deal and has to go for an extension
    He will likely call a general election well before October or lose a VONC anyway but he will go to No Deal rather than extend again
    I don't think so. There is a huge political cost to him and the Tories if they go into an election on a no deal platform. Probably bigger than swallowing an extension.

    Not to mention that Labour on 18% and sinking may not fancy this election of yours
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,052
    Mr. B2, I wonder what the Lib Dems would prefer.

    Probably more time to cement themselves as The Remain Party.

    On the other hand, it's easier to be for Remain than Rejoin.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,594
    The UK has deescalated by fast roping a squad of Booties onto a tanker of Iranian oil at Gibraltar suspected of breaching EU sanctions. The ship's supply of jazz mags has already been depleted.

    The Iranians are consulting the hadith to see if the best course of action is to seize a British vessel in the gulf or start legal proceedings in Gibraltar.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/tehran-fumes-as-uk-seizes-iranian-oil-tanker-over-syria-sanctions-1.3946906
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 510
    edited July 6
    malcolmg said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
    It is a pity when I agree with Malcolm. I am a staunch unionist and have fought to save the union on the streets but even I can see the complete arrogance of the English nationalists creating strains. If we head for a chaotic no deal Brexit Scotland is lost. I fear however the brexiters have stopped listening to anyone except those that agree with them fully
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 23,948
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Point of order: we don't have a WA which has been agreed by both sides.

    Parliament has insisted on the right to approve the WA. What we have is a WA that May agreed to submit for ratification. That is very different.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is

    Boris voted for the WA once and opposed it twice. In what way had the WA changed between the three occasions? To cut through the nonsense, he voted for it when he thought it would get through and he wanted to be on the winning side - he miscalculated and that leaves him open to Farage and TBP who will claim he is insincere about leaving without a WA.

    Let's pick out the options then:
    HYUFD said:


    either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal

    That won't happen because the Faragists want us to leave without a Deal and there are more than enough of them to block any hopes of a Conservative majority.
    HYUFD said:


    or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is

    Okay. At some point in September (perhaps during the Labour Conference), Boris announces there is no agreement with the EU and we will leave on 31/10 with No Deal but to confirm that is the people's will he will call a GE for say October 17th on a No Deal vs Remain platform.

    He has to do the GE to stop the Commons turning on him and blocking a No Deal BUT that only works if Labour are stupid enough to fall into the elephant trap of wanting the election - that means it'll probably work.
    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is
    Or as featured on Newsnight last night Boris is forced to abandon no deal and has to go for an extension
    He will likely call a general election well before October or lose a VONC anyway but he will go to No Deal rather than extend again
    I don't think so. There is a huge political cost to him and the Tories if they go into an election on a no deal platform. Probably bigger than swallowing an extension.

    Not to mention that Labour on 18% and sinking may not fancy this election of yours
    Corbyn has committed to a General election by all means necessary, he looks a coward if he backs out no but of course Boris wins a majority on just 34% given Remainers splitting centre left vote by heading LD
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234

    Mr. B2, I wonder what the Lib Dems would prefer.

    Probably more time to cement themselves as The Remain Party.

    On the other hand, it's easier to be for Remain than Rejoin.

    The LibDems would vote for an election, as it is hard not to see them coming out stronger and there's a chance it might kickstart the long awaited realignment. Whether they would *want* one would depend on the chance of HY's no deal majority arising from the capriciousness of our voting system. Stopping Brexit is the priority
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    edited July 6
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is
    Or as featured on Newsnight last night Boris is forced to abandon no deal and has to go for an extension
    He will likely call a general election well before October or lose a VONC anyway but he will go to No Deal rather than extend again
    I don't think so. There is a huge political cost to him and the Tories if they go into an election on a no deal platform. Probably bigger than swallowing an extension.

    Not to mention that Labour on 18% and sinking may not fancy this election of yours
    If the Tories extend again as Yougov has showed Farage would overtake the Tories and the Brexit Party would be the largest party in the Commons after the next general election on a WTO terms No Deal platform
  • eekeek Posts: 4,192
    edited July 6
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is

    Boris voted for the WA once and opposed it twice. In what way had the WA changed between the three occasions? To cut through the nonsense, he voted for it when he thought it would get through and he wanted to be on the winning side - he miscalculated and that leaves him open to Farage and TBP who will claim he is insincere about leaving without a WA.

    Let's pick out the options then:
    HYUFD said:


    either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal

    That won't happen because the Faragists want us to leave without a Deal and there are more than enough of them to block any hopes of a Conservative majority.
    HYUFD said:


    or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is

    Okay. At some point in September (perhaps during the Labour Conference), Boris announces there is no agreement with the EU and we will leave on 31/10 with No Deal but to confirm that is the people's will he will call a GE for say October 17th on a No Deal vs Remain platform.

    He has to do the GE to stop the Commons turning on him and blocking a No Deal BUT that only works if Labour are stupid enough to fall into the elephant trap of wanting the election - that means it'll probably work.
    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st
    So when will that October General election be called?

    I posted an article this week that shows why the timeline makes an October Election impossible unless he calls it in the first week of September..

    and the commons isn't going to VoNC Boris in September. That would only occur as the deadline approaches...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 12,766
    ydoethur said:

    Yes, he's within his rights to question it, although it would be highly surprising if anyone else was responsible. Nobody else has anything to gain, for a start...

    The Saudis or their proxies, for a start.

    As you know, I am probably as much of a Corbyn admirer as you are, but scepticism in such matters is entirely warranted.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is
    Or as featured on Newsnight last night Boris is forced to abandon no deal and has to go for an extension
    He will likely call a general election well before October or lose a VONC anyway but he will go to No Deal rather than extend again
    I don't think so. There is a huge political cost to him and the Tories if they go into an election on a no deal platform. Probably bigger than swallowing an extension.

    Not to mention that Labour on 18% and sinking may not fancy this election of yours
    If the Tories extend again as Yougov has showed Farage would overtake the Tories and the Brexit Party would be the largest party in the Commons after the next general election on a WTO terms No Deal platform
    But if we’re to leave six months late that would be forgotten and TBP would only have a platform if some people felt the final terms unacceptable.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,786
    edited July 6

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Assuming his supporters haven't borrowed Boris's own habit of telling the audience exactly what they want to hear (or what he thinks they want to hear), we are going to the land of the fantastic renegotiation for our summer holidays.

    Even though we have a WA which has been agreed by both sides and which the EU have said can't be changed, we are now supposed to believe Boris will not only get a new deal but said deal will "unite the nation".

    To quote a certain Mr V Meldrew "I don't believe it".

    I cannot believe people are so stupid and desperate to believe or want to believe this nonsense. I suppose if you are a Conservative looking at a 20% poll rating and being taken over by the Faragists you'll believe any line a decent con-man (no pun intended) will peddle.

    When we get to early October, what then? What if there's no deal on the horizon? Will Boris say something like "look, chaps, the Deal's just round the corner. Give me six more months and it'll be sorted.". That's up there with "the dog ate my homework" or "the cheque's in the post". Farage will have a field day and those so enthusiastic of Boris now will have had first hand experience of the saying "buying a pig in a poke".

    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is
    Or as featured on Newsnight last night Boris is forced to abandon no deal and has to go for an extension
    He will likely call a general election well before October or lose a VONC anyway but he will go to No Deal rather than extend again
    I don't think so. There is a huge political cost to him and the Tories if they go into an election on a no deal platform. Probably bigger than swallowing an extension.

    Not to mention that Labour on 18% and sinking may not fancy this election of yours
    If the Tories extend again as Yougov has showed Farage would overtake the Tories and the Brexit Party would be the largest party in the Commons after the next general election on a WTO terms No Deal platform
    If the Tories try for a no deal platform they split, since a lot of senior Tories won't support such a platform. A "deal" platform with days to go won't wash. Hence he will extend
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 102

    Thanks Cyclefree for a very thoughtful thread.

    It’s a great thread header from Cyclefree, thought provoking and very fair. I always felt decisions in foreign affairs can seem different after the benefit of time.

    Some people get worked up by fox hunting, which Tony Blair’s government banned. But the real measure of Blair and his place in the history books is the crime of Iraq, over a million dead due to a policy decision he pushed through.

    The Sun newspaper said Charlotte Church had angel delight between her ears for proposing when Syria first ran into trouble we should have intervened with jobs and money to prevent the slide to civil war. Unfortunately for the sun newspaper history books will make clear it was geo political games that prevented Lottys suggested intervention and actually stoked the hideous war with all its atrocities.

    There’s clear tension building in Middle East between Shia and Sunni, and under Trump today there is unequivocal 110% support for the Sunni side. In a presidency known for policy flip flopping this has been a true constant. Some may call what he is doing vandalism and dangerous, but a counter argument is Obama’s response to the Bush regime was inactivity, without much clear sense of what he wants to do in the world. What is interesting is how Britain believes it can or can’t go along with what Trump does next, the degree we have actually have a choice anymore. Is it only history books on the next few years that can answer this, or can we answer it today?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 348
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Boris already voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV but the Commons rejected it again even then, so given the Withdrawal Agreement can almost certainly only pass with a Tory majority and the EU will not remove the backstop either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is

    Boris voted for the WA once and opposed it twice. In what way had the WA changed between the three occasions? To cut through the nonsense, he voted for it when he thought it would get through and he wanted to be on the winning side - he miscalculated and that leaves him open to Farage and TBP who will claim he is insincere about leaving without a WA.

    Let's pick out the options then:
    HYUFD said:


    either we get a Tory majority under Boris to Leave with the Deal

    That won't happen because the Faragists want us to leave without a Deal and there are more than enough of them to block any hopes of a Conservative majority.
    HYUFD said:


    or Boris goes to No Deal if he is PM and election before October and the Commons stays as it is

    Okay. At some point in September (perhaps during the Labour Conference), Boris announces there is no agreement with the EU and we will leave on 31/10 with No Deal but to confirm that is the people's will he will call a GE for say October 17th on a No Deal vs Remain platform.

    He has to do the GE to stop the Commons turning on him and blocking a No Deal BUT that only works if Labour are stupid enough to fall into the elephant trap of wanting the election - that means it'll probably work.
    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st
    So when will that October General election be called?

    I posted an article this week that shows why the timeline makes an October Election impossible unless he calls it in the first week of September..

    and the commons isn't going to VoNC Boris in September. That would only occur as the deadline approaches...
    Yes, it would be very helpful if @HYUFD would give us the timelines of the alternative scenarios he’s identified.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    I think there is a "conflict of interest" here in the role of Leader of the Opposition.
    On the one hand LotO should be holding the government to account and making sure the government does not overstep the line. On the otherhand the LotO is expected to show that he/she is qualified to be prime minister.*

    In the area of military conflict this dichotomy is particularly noticeable: if you do not challenge the intelligence and government statements then you might end up letting the PM get away with it and neglecting your duty as LotO (IDS). If you do challenge the govenment's stance then you seriously risk being labelled as not prepared to take your country to war (Foot, Milliband, Corbyn). It is possible to navigate down the middle of this but it is a fine line to find. AFAIR Kinnock got this right in the first Gulf War, but then the start of that war was completely uncontroversial.

    *Curiously, the opposition party needs to show that the leader is PM material, but if changing the leader when in government this ceases to be a requirement.

    Foot supported Thatcher over the Falklands, although there was plenty to criticise about the way the operation was handled.
    I seem to remember that Foot was in favour of sending the Navy and Marines to the Falkland Islands during the emergency commons debate held on a Saturday Morning, but once the military were there, he was not supportve of the actual combat.

    I must admit that it was a long time ago, I was barely a teenager then and I was brought up in one of the most Conservative parts of the country and only had the Telegraph at home to read.
    His speech in response to Thatcher's statement to the House was praised by Tory backbenchers as being far better, more fiery and less equivocal than Thatcher's own (and condemned by the likes of Tam Dalyell for the same reason). He was in favour of continuing to explore diplomatic options (not that this was a realistic aim as Argentina were not) to ensure the British were seen as good guys. But he backed Thatcher over the sinking of the Belgrano, for example, and was the first to congratulate the government on the Argentine surrender. This was of course easier because he had no love for the Galtieri junta and had been criticising it for years.

    Indeed, he was so hawkish that even Denis Healey, hardly a pacifist, was rather startled and not very happy. Although perhaps we should also note Healey was a military veteran and therefore understood better than Foot how risky the option of reconquest was.

    Source: K O Morgan, Michael Foot paperback 2008, 410-415.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,037
    Apologies to BigG on the previous thread for suggesting that he voted leave. Nonetheless, the consequences of supporting leaving the EU deal or no deal will cause a long term decline in Airbus UK. His SIL may be fine in the short term, grandchildren less so.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369
    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,311

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,955
    edited July 6
    Good piece, thank-you.

    Corbyn's problem is that even when he is right to be sceptical about a foreign policy issue, no-one sees it in those terms because he has spent 40 years supporting or giving the benefit of the doubt to any cause or government - no matter how cruel, repressive or barbarous - that is anti-UK, anti-US and/or anti-Israel. It is this, more than anything else, that has made him so unpopular. People do not believe he is on the UK's side.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,710
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    Okay. At some point in September (perhaps during the Labour Conference), Boris announces there is no agreement with the EU and we will leave on 31/10 with No Deal but to confirm that is the people's will he will call a GE for say October 17th on a No Deal vs Remain platform.

    He has to do the GE to stop the Commons turning on him and blocking a No Deal BUT that only works if Labour are stupid enough to fall into the elephant trap of wanting the election - that means it'll probably work.

    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st
    Yes, I think that general scenario is quite likely now although in terms of practical timetabling the GE might have been called before 31st October but held after then, with the Commons having blocked departure in the meantime. In some ways that might work better for Johnson than if the Commons had not definitely blocked departure. The question is whether Johnson can secure a workable majority but he certainly will have removed the existential threat from the Brexit Party by pursuing that course.

    If Johnson succeeds I think that "No Deal" would be a very short term state and unlikely to last beyond the end of 2019. The EU will not want that state to last any more than the UK and a longer term deal of in the interests of both parties would follow quickly. That is in contrast to the position up to now where the EU has chosen to play hardball in the hope that the UK will either chose to remain or accept May's abject "Deal" that would settle next to nothing other than to strengthen the EU's position in the negotiations that would follow.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,710
    HYUFD said:



    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st

    Yes, I think that general scenario is quite likely now although in terms of practical timetabling the GE might have been called before 31st October but held after then, with the Commons having blocked departure in the meantime. In some ways that might work better for Johnson than if the Commons had not definitely blocked departure. The question is whether Johnson can secure a workable majority but he certainly will have removed the existential threat from the Brexit Party by pursuing that course.

    If Johnson succeeds I think that "No Deal" would be a very short term state and unlikely to last beyond the end of 2019. The EU will not want that state to last any more than the UK and a longer term deal of in the interests of both parties would follow quickly. That is in contrast to the position up to now where the EU has chosen to play hardball in the hope that the UK will either chose to remain or accept May's abject "Deal" that would settle next to nothing other than to strengthen the EU's position in the negotiations that would follow.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369
    rcs1000 said:


    In my business life, I have found one policy has been enormously successful: iteration.

    You have a general idea of where you want to get to, and you keep iterating, making small improvements that get you going to where you want.

    Every business I've been involved with that has failed has failed because there was a big plan, and there was going to be a huge amount of work, and this enormous transformation. And everyone loses their jobs because there's no feedback loop in place. You need to be guided, constantly, by discovering if what you're doing is working.

    And that's why conservatism - mostly - worked. It was little changes. It was government by iterative change. Even the most extraordinary developments in Britain, like the Glorious Revolution or the Act of Union, were barely more than incremental, especially when compared to our continental neighbours.

    +1
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,287

    malcolmg said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
    It is a pity when I agree with Malcolm. I am a staunch unionist and have fought to save the union on the streets but even I can see the complete arrogance of the English nationalists creating strains. If we head for a chaotic no deal Brexit Scotland is lost. I fear however the brexiters have stopped listening to anyone except those that agree with them fully
    Hamilton, agree totally , they have gone mad in England. Especially as most speak from a position of ignorance on the topic. I am for independence but respect your choice to have different opinion even if I do not understand anyone not wanting to be in charge of their own country.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 510
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
    It is a pity when I agree with Malcolm. I am a staunch unionist and have fought to save the union on the streets but even I can see the complete arrogance of the English nationalists creating strains. If we head for a chaotic no deal Brexit Scotland is lost. I fear however the brexiters have stopped listening to anyone except those that agree with them fully
    Hamilton, agree totally , they have gone mad in England. Especially as most speak from a position of ignorance on the topic. I am for independence but respect your choice to have different opinion even if I do not understand anyone not wanting to be in charge of their own country.
    The strength of Scotland is our ability to share our country with others
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499

    HYUFD said:



    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st

    Yes, I think that general scenario is quite likely now although in terms of practical timetabling the GE might have been called before 31st October but held after then, with the Commons having blocked departure in the meantime. In some ways that might work better for Johnson than if the Commons had not definitely blocked departure. The question is whether Johnson can secure a workable majority but he certainly will have removed the existential threat from the Brexit Party by pursuing that course.

    If Johnson succeeds I think that "No Deal" would be a very short term state and unlikely to last beyond the end of 2019. The EU will not want that state to last any more than the UK and a longer term deal of in the interests of both parties would follow quickly. That is in contrast to the position up to now where the EU has chosen to play hardball in the hope that the UK will either chose to remain or accept May's abject "Deal" that would settle next to nothing other than to strengthen the EU's position in the negotiations that would follow.

    No discussions on post no deal departures on future trade deals until U.K. pays its debts, resolves EU citizens rights and accepts the backstop.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.
    So we don’t have triad gangs in the U.K.? There are no Afro Caribbean gangs in the U.K. etc etc why save all distaste of immigrants just for EU migrants
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,383
    This is one of the best headers I have read in my short time on here.

    To lower the tone now with reference to my particular obsession - Trump.

    The presence of this deeply sub-optimal individual in the White House has unfortunately coloured my view of America to the extent that my default view as to whether we should support the US in any conflict, military or otherwise, with anybody at all is a big fat NO.

    "Go Iran Go!" I tend to shout at the TV when this current conflict over the nuclear deal is being featured.

    Not great, I know, but thankfully I only have another 18 months to survive in this condition. President Harris will cure me.

    Will she also mitigate Jeremy Corbyn's anti-Americanism? Perhaps but probably not to the same extent. I sense it runs deeper in him than in me.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743
    edited July 6
    matt said:

    Apologies to BigG on the previous thread for suggesting that he voted leave. Nonetheless, the consequences of supporting leaving the EU deal or no deal will cause a long term decline in Airbus UK. His SIL may be fine in the short term, grandchildren less so.

    Thank you and yes I did vote remain.

    You may have missed it but Airbus confirmed in the last few days that their manufacturing base in the UK will remain irrespective of the Brexit outcome
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,955

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.

    Your faith in criminals' willingness to obey the law may be a little misplaced.

    How many of the 24 Chinese slave-workers killed in Morecambe Bay were from the EU?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369
    nichomar said:

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.
    So we don’t have triad gangs in the U.K.? There are no Afro Caribbean gangs in the U.K. etc etc why save all distaste of immigrants just for EU migrants
    For a start the triad gangs weren't the main BBC headline yesterday.

    Secondly your 'lets ignore it because someone other group might be doing it as well' line is rather nauseating.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499

    nichomar said:

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.
    So we don’t have triad gangs in the U.K.? There are no Afro Caribbean gangs in the U.K. etc etc why save all distaste of immigrants just for EU migrants
    For a start the triad gangs weren't the main BBC headline yesterday.

    Secondly your 'lets ignore it because someone other group might be doing it as well' line is rather nauseating.
    Where does it say ‘ignore it’? More and better police resources is obviously part of the solution.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369
    kinabalu said:

    This is one of the best headers I have read in my short time on here.

    To lower the tone now with reference to my particular obsession - Trump.

    The presence of this deeply sub-optimal individual in the White House has unfortunately coloured my view of America to the extent that my default view as to whether we should support the US in any conflict, military or otherwise, with anybody at all is a big fat NO.

    "Go Iran Go!" I tend to shout at the TV when this current conflict over the nuclear deal is being featured.

    Not great, I know, but thankfully I only have another 18 months to survive in this condition. President Harris will cure me.

    Will she also mitigate Jeremy Corbyn's anti-Americanism? Perhaps but probably not to the same extent. I sense it runs deeper in him than in me.

    One thing I have acquired over the last 15 years is a greater respect for Harold Wilson for not sending any British military to Vietnam.

    Another thing I have acquired is an increasing distaste for British politicians posturing about the Middle East.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,287

    HYUFD said:



    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st

    Yes, I think that general scenario is quite likely now although in terms of practical timetabling the GE might have been called before 31st October but held after then, with the Commons having blocked departure in the meantime. In some ways that might work better for Johnson than if the Commons had not definitely blocked departure. The question is whether Johnson can secure a workable majority but he certainly will have removed the existential threat from the Brexit Party by pursuing that course.

    If Johnson succeeds I think that "No Deal" would be a very short term state and unlikely to last beyond the end of 2019. The EU will not want that state to last any more than the UK and a longer term deal of in the interests of both parties would follow quickly. That is in contrast to the position up to now where the EU has chosen to play hardball in the hope that the UK will either chose to remain or accept May's abject "Deal" that would settle next to nothing other than to strengthen the EU's position in the negotiations that would follow.

    Dreamer
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743
    I am being bombarded with e mails from team Boris with yesterday the Telegraph endorsing him and just now Boris Team announcing the Times backing.

    Whatever else his campaign, with active telephone calling and almost daily e mails, contrasts with nothing of any note from Hunt
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,955
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.
    So we don’t have triad gangs in the U.K.? There are no Afro Caribbean gangs in the U.K. etc etc why save all distaste of immigrants just for EU migrants
    For a start the triad gangs weren't the main BBC headline yesterday.

    Secondly your 'lets ignore it because someone other group might be doing it as well' line is rather nauseating.
    Where does it say ‘ignore it’? More and better police resources is obviously part of the solution.

    Criminals do not obey the law. Leaving the EU will not stop criminals exploiting people's desires to build better lives for themselves.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,287
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.
    So we don’t have triad gangs in the U.K.? There are no Afro Caribbean gangs in the U.K. etc etc why save all distaste of immigrants just for EU migrants
    For a start the triad gangs weren't the main BBC headline yesterday.

    Secondly your 'lets ignore it because someone other group might be doing it as well' line is rather nauseating.
    Where does it say ‘ignore it’? More and better police resources is obviously part of the solution.
    Police doing real police work rather than chasing tweeters and sending mobs to pubs because a worker did not like a client's teeshirt etc is the issue. Get them back out on the street doing what they are supposed to do.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,237
    edited July 6
    malcolmg said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
    Then become PM and sort it (and us) out. Nichola Sturgeon is one of the UK's most talented politicians. Why isn't she UK PM? No reason except then limitations she puts on herself.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.

    Your faith in criminals' willingness to obey the law may be a little misplaced.

    How many of the 24 Chinese slave-workers killed in Morecambe Bay were from the EU?

    At least you are now accepting that there are criminals among those who have migrated to the UK.

    Reality has reached Royal Leamington Spa.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,710
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:



    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st

    Yes, I think that general scenario is quite likely now although in terms of practical timetabling the GE might have been called before 31st October but held after then, with the Commons having blocked departure in the meantime. In some ways that might work better for Johnson than if the Commons had not definitely blocked departure. The question is whether Johnson can secure a workable majority but he certainly will have removed the existential threat from the Brexit Party by pursuing that course.

    If Johnson succeeds I think that "No Deal" would be a very short term state and unlikely to last beyond the end of 2019. The EU will not want that state to last any more than the UK and a longer term deal of in the interests of both parties would follow quickly. That is in contrast to the position up to now where the EU has chosen to play hardball in the hope that the UK will either chose to remain or accept May's abject "Deal" that would settle next to nothing other than to strengthen the EU's position in the negotiations that would follow.

    Dreamer
    Yes, on reflection, the EU would regard No Deal as an excellent long term outcome for them.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,955

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.

    Your faith in criminals' willingness to obey the law may be a little misplaced.

    How many of the 24 Chinese slave-workers killed in Morecambe Bay were from the EU?

    At least you are now accepting that there are criminals among those who have migrated to the UK.

    Reality has reached Royal Leamington Spa.

    When did I ever deny it?

    There are criminals all over the world and one very basic thing unites all of them: they do not obey the law.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.
    So we don’t have triad gangs in the U.K.? There are no Afro Caribbean gangs in the U.K. etc etc why save all distaste of immigrants just for EU migrants
    For a start the triad gangs weren't the main BBC headline yesterday.

    Secondly your 'lets ignore it because someone other group might be doing it as well' line is rather nauseating.
    Where does it say ‘ignore it’? More and better police resources is obviously part of the solution.
    So we allow free immigration to foreign criminal gangs and the deprived people who are their victims and then use 'more and better police resources' to contain them.

    Or perhaps we would be better at stopping that immigration in the first place ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,237
    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. That isn't about begging, fear, or treating the different parts of the UK as special cases. We are one whole, and we rise and fall as one.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,710
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:



    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st

    Yes, I think that general scenario is quite likely now although in terms of practical timetabling the GE might have been called before 31st October but held after then, with the Commons having blocked departure in the meantime. In some ways that might work better for Johnson than if the Commons had not definitely blocked departure. The question is whether Johnson can secure a workable majority but he certainly will have removed the existential threat from the Brexit Party by pursuing that course.

    If Johnson succeeds I think that "No Deal" would be a very short term state and unlikely to last beyond the end of 2019. The EU will not want that state to last any more than the UK and a longer term deal of in the interests of both parties would follow quickly. That is in contrast to the position up to now where the EU has chosen to play hardball in the hope that the UK will either chose to remain or accept May's abject "Deal" that would settle next to nothing other than to strengthen the EU's position in the negotiations that would follow.

    No discussions on post no deal departures on future trade deals until U.K. pays its debts, resolves EU citizens rights and accepts the backstop.
    And you are taking them at their word.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369
    Now if we did want to do something practical to reduce criminal gangs and the exploitation of vulnerable workers then shutting down the hand carwash industry would be a good start.

    And so doing would lead to the side benefits of increased capital investment in carwash machines or alternatively lazy lard arses having to do some exercise.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,003

    I am being bombarded with e mails from team Boris with yesterday the Telegraph endorsing him and just now Boris Team announcing the Times backing.

    Whatever else his campaign, with active telephone calling and almost daily e mails, contrasts with nothing of any note from Hunt

    Perhaps you have given permission to Boris's team under GDPR to contact you and not Hunt's? Or is Boris's team not concerned with data privacy?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,237
    I wonder if Hunt will be in Boris' cabinet. I guess not - he has been quite aggressive...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.

    Your faith in criminals' willingness to obey the law may be a little misplaced.

    How many of the 24 Chinese slave-workers killed in Morecambe Bay were from the EU?

    At least you are now accepting that there are criminals among those who have migrated to the UK.

    Reality has reached Royal Leamington Spa.

    When did I ever deny it?

    There are criminals all over the world and one very basic thing unites all of them: they do not obey the law.

    There are criminals everywhere but allowing them and the people they exploit to freely migrate to this country results in more of them here.

    And as I've said before the people in those 60% Leave towns are seeing few of the 'best and brightest' immigrants but a lot more of the less desirable types.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,956

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. That isn't about begging, fear, or treating the different parts of the UK as special cases. We are one whole, and we rise and fall as one.
    One people, one Union, one Boris.
    That should look good on the side of a bus.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,786
    I read a good explainer somewhere that this is a strategic competition between Islamist populists, led primarily by Iran, but also Turkey against autocrats, principally Saudi and Egypt. There are no good guys in this lot, which is why everyone in the Middle East is very depressed. The US has gone all in on the side of the autocrats. It's not clear that the UK should follow, either on grounds of morality or national interest.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,037
    R

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:



    The Commons will likely VONC Boris before the autumn given he has not ruled out No Deal, Boris then wins a majority on a pre October general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal platform by October 31st

    Yes, I think that general scenario is quite likely now although in terms of practical timetabling the GE might have been called before 31st October but held after then, with the Commons having blocked departure in the meantime. In some ways that might work better for Johnson than if the Commons had not definitely blocked departure. The question is whether Johnson can secure a workable majority but he certainly will have removed the existential threat from the Brexit Party by pursuing that course.

    If Johnson succeeds I think that "No Deal" would be a very short term state and unlikely to last beyond the end of 2019. The EU will not want that state to last any more than the UK and a longer term deal of in the interests of both parties would follow quickly. That is in contrast to the position up to now where the EU has chosen to play hardball in the hope that the UK will either chose to remain or accept May's abject "Deal" that would settle next to nothing other than to strengthen the EU's position in the negotiations that would follow.

    No discussions on post no deal departures on future trade deals until U.K. pays its debts, resolves EU citizens rights and accepts the backstop.
    And you are taking them at their word.
    It seems a reasonable position. To do otherwise would be akin to driving without insurance because you know you’re a better driver than everybody else.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,710

    I wonder if Hunt will be in Boris' cabinet. I guess not - he has been quite aggressive...

    You are right that he has made the final stages of the campaign unnecessarily divisive, which is strange since it was clear well before the final stages of the MPs ballot that Johnson was going to win. However, I don't think that Johnson has any alternative but to include Hunt in some role in the interests of party unity, while keeping him well away from anything to do with Brexit.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369
    edited July 6

    I am being bombarded with e mails from team Boris with yesterday the Telegraph endorsing him and just now Boris Team announcing the Times backing.

    Whatever else his campaign, with active telephone calling and almost daily e mails, contrasts with nothing of any note from Hunt

    Too much communication from a candidate is counterproductive.

    Zero communication from a candidate is counterproductive.

    It is perhaps inevitable that both Boris and Hunt would find ways to do the wrong thing.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. That isn't about begging, fear, or treating the different parts of the UK as special cases. We are one whole, and we rise and fall as one.
    One people, one Union, one Boris.
    That should look good on the side of a bus.
    I thought that Ruthie in a tank was what you fantasised about ?

    :wink:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743

    I am being bombarded with e mails from team Boris with yesterday the Telegraph endorsing him and just now Boris Team announcing the Times backing.

    Whatever else his campaign, with active telephone calling and almost daily e mails, contrasts with nothing of any note from Hunt

    Perhaps you have given permission to Boris's team under GDPR to contact you and not Hunt's? Or is Boris's team not concerned with data privacy?
    No idea to be honest
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,786

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. That isn't about begging, fear, or treating the different parts of the UK as special cases. We are one whole, and we rise and fall as one.
    As a unionist, I feel like the man in 1919 regretting the break up of Austro-Hungary. I am fully aware the highly possible demise of the United Kingdom has its roots in the Brexit failure, just as defeat in WW1 did for Austro-Hungary.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,956

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. That isn't about begging, fear, or treating the different parts of the UK as special cases. We are one whole, and we rise and fall as one.
    One people, one Union, one Boris.
    That should look good on the side of a bus.
    I thought that Ruthie in a tank was what you fantasised about ?

    :wink:
    I think you'll find that it features in the fantasies of an entirely different group of people. In fact Ruthie in a tank is probably rhyming slang for certain folk.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,955

    Remember how we're told that immigrants are Europe's 'best and brightest':

    Members of a gang behind the biggest modern-day slavery network ever exposed in the UK have been jailed.

    Police believe more than 400 victims were put to work in the West Midlands by the organised crime gang.

    They tricked vulnerable people from Poland into England with the promise of work and a better life.

    But their victims were made to live in rat-infested houses and work menial jobs


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48881327

    Did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns ?

    Why are you victim shaming the immigrants rather than criticising our Police for not stopping the organised crime gang?
    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.

    Your faith in criminals' willingness to obey the law may be a little misplaced.

    How many of the 24 Chinese slave-workers killed in Morecambe Bay were from the EU?

    At least you are now accepting that there are criminals among those who have migrated to the UK.

    Reality has reached Royal Leamington Spa.

    When did I ever deny it?

    There are criminals all over the world and one very basic thing unites all of them: they do not obey the law.

    There are criminals everywhere but allowing them and the people they exploit to freely migrate to this country results in more of them here.

    And as I've said before the people in those 60% Leave towns are seeing few of the 'best and brightest' immigrants but a lot more of the less desirable types.

    British criminals emigrate. Do we know more criminals are coming in thanks to EU immigration than are leaving?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. That isn't about begging, fear, or treating the different parts of the UK as special cases. We are one whole, and we rise and fall as one.
    As a unionist, I feel like the man in 1919 regretting the break up of Austro-Hungary. I am fully aware the highly possible demise of the United Kingdom has its roots in the Brexit failure, just as defeat in WW1 did for Austro-Hungary.
    That suggests how tolerant a country the UK has been and didn't pursue the integration and assimilation (plus extermination and expulsion of minorities) that many European countries did when nation building.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 14,956

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. That isn't about begging, fear, or treating the different parts of the UK as special cases. We are one whole, and we rise and fall as one.
    As a unionist, I feel like the man in 1919 regretting the break up of Austro-Hungary. I am fully aware the highly possible demise of the United Kingdom has its roots in the Brexit failure, just as defeat in WW1 did for Austro-Hungary.
    That suggests how tolerant a country the UK has been and didn't pursue the integration and assimilation (plus extermination and expulsion of minorities) that many European countries did when nation building.
    The Irish and the Gàidhealtachd would like a word.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 21,028

    I am being bombarded with e mails from team Boris with yesterday the Telegraph endorsing him and just now Boris Team announcing the Times backing.

    Whatever else his campaign, with active telephone calling and almost daily e mails, contrasts with nothing of any note from Hunt

    When did this start? It seems a bit late if you've already mailed back your form?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,052
    Mr. Richard, aye. Not many Occitan speakers these days.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,383
    IanB2 said:

    If the Tories try for a no deal platform they split, since a lot of senior Tories won't support such a platform. A "deal" platform with days to go won't wash. Hence he will extend

    The big question for me - the only question really - is which group of his supporters will Johnson bitterly disappoint.

    Will it be the hardline Leavers to whom he has promised a No Deal exit on 31 Oct?

    Or will it be the more pragmatic centrist types to whom his "No Deal is a million to one. Don't worry about it," was addressed.

    Or - and one should in fairness allow for this possibility - will his trademark combination of chutzpah and ambiguous political positioning be so effective in practice that he manages to square the circle and disappoint both?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 8,786
    edited July 6

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. That isn't about begging, fear, or treating the different parts of the UK as special cases. We are one whole, and we rise and fall as one.
    As a unionist, I feel like the man in 1919 regretting the break up of Austro-Hungary. I am fully aware the highly possible demise of the United Kingdom has its roots in the Brexit failure, just as defeat in WW1 did for Austro-Hungary.
    That suggests how tolerant a country the UK has been and didn't pursue the integration and assimilation (plus extermination and expulsion of minorities) that many European countries did when nation building.
    I find your implication that as a Scot, I am an unassimilated deplorable to be highly offensive. Why would anyone on either side of the Tweed/Solway want to stay in a union on that basis?

    Plus I don't want to exterminate minorities. This really is Hitler stuff.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,287

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
    It is a pity when I agree with Malcolm. I am a staunch unionist and have fought to save the union on the streets but even I can see the complete arrogance of the English nationalists creating strains. If we head for a chaotic no deal Brexit Scotland is lost. I fear however the brexiters have stopped listening to anyone except those that agree with them fully
    Hamilton, agree totally , they have gone mad in England. Especially as most speak from a position of ignorance on the topic. I am for independence but respect your choice to have different opinion even if I do not understand anyone not wanting to be in charge of their own country.
    The strength of Scotland is our ability to share our country with others
    why is that so good for Scotland but so bad for UK in the EU, explain that one. We can be in charge of our own affairs and share our country with others, we do not need to be a colony of England for that.
    If you look at current Home Office policy you are contradicting yourself, pretty poor attempt at justifying being a colony indeed.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369


    The criminals were immigrants as well.

    Perhaps you would like to consider whether either the criminals or their victims would have been allowed to migrate to the UK if there wasn't unrestricted immigration.

    You might also like to consider how much the whole sordid story will cost the taxpayer.

    But you wont.

    Because its so much easier to claim that its only Europe's 'best and brightest' who migrate to the UK or that immigrants don't put pressure on the public services.

    And as I said did anyone ever imagine that the UK would have slavery and shanty towns.

    Your faith in criminals' willingness to obey the law may be a little misplaced.

    How many of the 24 Chinese slave-workers killed in Morecambe Bay were from the EU?

    At least you are now accepting that there are criminals among those who have migrated to the UK.

    Reality has reached Royal Leamington Spa.

    When did I ever deny it?

    There are criminals all over the world and one very basic thing unites all of them: they do not obey the law.

    There are criminals everywhere but allowing them and the people they exploit to freely migrate to this country results in more of them here.

    And as I've said before the people in those 60% Leave towns are seeing few of the 'best and brightest' immigrants but a lot more of the less desirable types.

    British criminals emigrate. Do we know more criminals are coming in thanks to EU immigration than are leaving?

    Well perhaps there are British criminals forcing vulnerable British people to pick turnips and wash cars in Poland.

    But the BBC haven't reported it yet.

    Now doubtless there are still a few geriatric old style villains alive on the Costa del Crime but as I remember the Spanish government were happy for them to migrate there together with their ill-gotten gains.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    IanB2 said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    I am not sure it matters as I don't think anyone believes him, but the logic of this is that BoZo would sacrifice Brexit to save the Union



    I wonder how many of the Little Englanders who already voted for him are signed up to that...

    It is quite possible that - now most ballots are cast but the campaign is *officially* still ongoing, Boris might start shifting his position away from some of his more extreme remarks?
    Anything is possible, Boris I don't think is inherently an extreme person, but I don't see how rolling back from some of his comments helps any, since the key is Brexit and he cannot get something passed without the spartans (don't make me laugh about Nandy and co) and rolling back on things won't win him any parliamentary votes, which is what he needs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743

    I am being bombarded with e mails from team Boris with yesterday the Telegraph endorsing him and just now Boris Team announcing the Times backing.

    Whatever else his campaign, with active telephone calling and almost daily e mails, contrasts with nothing of any note from Hunt

    When did this start? It seems a bit late if you've already mailed back your form?
    Been going on since the start of the campaign
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,383

    British criminals emigrate. Do we know more criminals are coming in thanks to EU immigration than are leaving?

    Costa del Crime, Kenneth Noye, Biggs, that whole Ray Winstone scene. Very unsavoury.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 22,287

    malcolmg said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
    Then become PM and sort it (and us) out. Nichola Sturgeon is one of the UK's most talented politicians. Why isn't she UK PM? No reason except then limitations she puts on herself.
    Now you really are talking mince, the SNP are treated badly at Westminster, Scotland is treated with contempt by Westminster. We have just witnessed two absolute balloons, one of which will be PM, state live on media that they will ignore Scotland's wishes and cancel democracy by not allowing the democratically elected Government enact their manifesto promise.
    A pox on your union.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977

    I wonder if Hunt will be in Boris' cabinet. I guess not - he has been quite aggressive...

    I suppose the problem is Hunt has to go hard to even have a chance to win enough votes to avoid humiliation, and staying on in anything other than his current position or one of equivalent level would look mildly sad for him, but he can hardly stay on in post and Boris does have other promises to keep and other people to consider for top posts.

    Hunt has been in Cabinet a long time, it won't do him harm to take some time out.

    Heck, if Boris fans are wrong and his boundless charisma will not square the circle that is the Tories needing a GE to pass Brexit but also not being able to win a GE until they Brexit, then Hunt and Boris will both be in opposition soon anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. .
    Problem is, that might not happen for enough people before the next vote occurs. I very much hope it does, but antipathy and apathy from various quarters have really made it hard.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    If there is another referendum, and there are very plausible pathways to one, I expect independence to win. Because no-one much will argue for the Union.

    I am as unionist as they come but the gig's up if the other lot don't want us. Boris et al are pretty clear the interests of Scotland (and Northern Ireland too) feature precisely nowhere on their radar. At least Theresa May cared.
    The UK will fare well when it starts to feel good, and be good, to be part of the UK again. That isn't about begging, fear, or treating the different parts of the UK as special cases. We are one whole, and we rise and fall as one.
    As a unionist, I feel like the man in 1919 regretting the break up of Austro-Hungary. I am fully aware the highly possible demise of the United Kingdom has its roots in the Brexit failure, just as defeat in WW1 did for Austro-Hungary.
    That suggests how tolerant a country the UK has been and didn't pursue the integration and assimilation (plus extermination and expulsion of minorities) that many European countries did when nation building.
    I find your implication that as a Scot, I am an unassimilated deplorable to be highly offensive. Why would anyone on either side of the Tweed/Solway want to stay in a union on that basis?

    Plus I don't want to exterminate minorities. This really is Hitler stuff.
    Perhaps you would like to point out where I used the word 'deplorable' in my comment or where I suggested anyone in this country wanted to exterminate minorities.

    I was merely contrasting how other European countries engaged in nation building while the UK was much more of an unplanned adhoc basis.

    And its a historical fact that many minority groups in Europe were expelled, exterminated or forcibly assimilated as the nation states slowly formed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    'Won't somebody think of the Union?' is the latest anti-Brexit message. It's highly coordinated; and all the usual suspects have been at it. Including Hunt from the very beginning of his campaign. The Union is not going anywhere. It is not in danger from Brexit, in fact, Brexit makes it almost impossible to leave the UK in the short to medium term. Of course Brexit will enrage Scottish nationalists - what doesn't? They will not stop pushing for independence if it doesn't happen, nor will they find a more receptive audience if it does. The whole thing is one massive yawn.

    The yawn is erses like you, thick southerners who think they are still in the empire days. We do not need some sniveling creeps from Westminster telling us what we can and cannot do.
    Then become PM and sort it (and us) out. Nichola Sturgeon is one of the UK's most talented politicians. Why isn't she UK PM? No reason except then limitations she puts on herself.
    Now you really are talking mince, the SNP are treated badly at Westminster, Scotland is treated with contempt by Westminster. We have just witnessed two absolute balloons, one of which will be PM, state live on media that they will ignore Scotland's wishes and cancel democracy by not allowing the democratically elected Government enact their manifesto promise.
    A pox on your union.
    I just don't see how promising not to allow a second independence referendum wont prove counter productive. I don't want one, nor want it to succeed as I fear it would, but if the thinking is Scotland votes to hold one, the UK says no and eventually indy support will die down, that seems rather unlikely to me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,190
    Boris; promises to keep!!!
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