That's been my proposal all along. Kick the Irish border issue into the long grass and deal with it in the future relationship negotiations where it rightfully belongs.
And, why would the EU play along with this cunning plan ? Oh, I forgot, we are so important...…...
Well, it is not as though the EU generally is averse to fudging things and kicking them into the long grass so it is not an outright crazy idea, but I think if they were going to go for that idea they would have suggested it by now. Whether it is a good idea for them to do so or not, they have decided to stake it all on not bending on that point.
To date they haven't needed to bend and with May as PM, Hammond as Chancellor and Cabinet ministers like Gauke etc it has been clear the government never intended to actually exit without its beloved precious deal.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
Yeah: the EU will be looking at a government with even less grasp of reality than the one we have currently.
Honestly, do people not realise that the EU is quite capable of reading the papers here and following what is going in British politics and making their own assessment of the strategic and political nous of people like IDS, Boris and others?
The EU has been preparing for some time now for a No Deal exit. It's what they expect.
To succeed the EU needs to think the UK's government is "divorced from reality". Considering they think what we are doing is mad, the government must be mad to be serious about doing it.
The EU have been preparing for some time for a No Deal exit, but it is not what they want.
This is all Game Theory in action.
If the EU think the UK will never seriously no deal (May/Hammond/Gauke led government) they have no reason to compromise. If the EU think the UK is insane and is led by lunatics (Boris/Truss/Patel) then suddenly they do have a reason to compromise. If the EU thinks the UK has blinked again and demonstrated again it will never seriously no deal (Hunt) it again has no reason to compromise.
That's been my proposal all along. Kick the Irish border issue into the long grass and deal with it in the future relationship negotiations where it rightfully belongs.
And, why would the EU play along with this cunning plan ? Oh, I forgot, we are so important...…...
Well, it is not as though the EU generally is averse to fudging things and kicking them into the long grass so it is not an outright crazy idea, but I think if they were going to go for that idea they would have suggested it by now. Whether it is a good idea for them to do so or not, they have decided to stake it all on not bending on that point.
They have already baulked at no deal twice. My guess is that they will again, fearing a hole in their budget. It remains in both sides interest to keep this going until the end of the current budget cycle. They get their handouts, we get free, unlimited access.
The problem for both sides really kicks in from January 2021.
Their budget needs to be approved, no British PM can be seen to sign up to it. Meanwhile, the UK parties who favour remain have to explain why we should give £45bn-£200bn over the next parliament to the EU, rather than £10bn under leave. And then the same again compared to £1bn for leave in the parliament after.
The public won't buy it.
That's why my/Boris's proposal is the right solution. Enter a standstill transition but with Britain out of the EU (and the EU's decision making process) but still following EU rules while we negotiate a new deal.
Relative to the risk of No Deal The EU gains: billions in funding, continuity of trade, the Irish issue is dealt with for now, the pesky Brits are gone from decision making.
The Brits pay billions but gain continuity of trade, time to negotiate the future and the Irish issue is dealt with for now.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Yes the European Parliament can, but I'm talking voters at a General Election. This may be surprising to you but I believe it is the voters that matter.
Every single Prime Minister without fail since WWII has faced a General Election. The last Prime Minister excluding WWII (when elections were suspended) not to face a General Election was Balfour over a century ago.
How many Commission Presidents have been elected at a General Election and how many have gone into an election seeking re-election?
Juncker arguably was. Who else?
You’re not talking about voters at a general election. We don’t have a system of direct election of the PM. Your entire pitch has been that the electorate via parliament can throw Boris out even though he will have been been appointed earlier by an ageing membership of a dying party. The PM serves at the discretion of the UK Parliament as does the Commission serve at the pleasure of the EU Parliament.
That's been my proposal all along. Kick the Irish border issue into the long grass and deal with it in the future relationship negotiations where it rightfully belongs.
And, why would the EU play along with this cunning plan ? Oh, I forgot, we are so important...…...
Well, it is not as though the EU generally is averse to fudging things and kicking them into the long grass so it is not an outright crazy idea, but I think if they were going to go for that idea they would have suggested it by now. Whether it is a good idea for them to do so or not, they have decided to stake it all on not bending on that point.
They have already baulked at no deal twice. My guess is that they will again, fearing a hole in their budget. It remains in both sides interest to keep this going until the end of the current budget cycle. They get their handouts, we get free, unlimited access.
The problem for both sides really kicks in from January 2021.
Their budget needs to be approved, no British PM can be seen to sign up to it. Meanwhile, the UK parties who favour remain have to explain why we should give £45bn-£200bn over the next parliament to the EU, rather than £10bn under leave. And then the same again compared to £1bn for leave in the parliament after.
The public won't buy it.
That's why my/Boris's proposal is the right solution. Enter a standstill transition but with Britain out of the EU (and the EU's decision making process) but still following EU rules while we negotiate a new deal.
Relative to the risk of No Deal The EU gains: billions in funding, continuity of trade, the Irish issue is dealt with for now, the pesky Brits are gone from decision making.
The Brits pay billions but gain continuity of trade, time to negotiate the future and the Irish issue is dealt with for now.
So Mrs May's Deal...
The one that has been voted down thrice?
Minus the backstop yes.
Without the backstop it was a sensible deal. The problem with the deal was the backstop and trying to settle a permanent future relationship issue as part of the price of a temporary transition.
Just a 5% lead for Remain over No Deal, the hardest of Brexits, is really not something diehard Remainers should feel that comfortable with
Just 37% support No Deal. That’s the significant number.
It's a very significant number. By coincidence it is the same percentage Cameron won his overall majority with in 2015, which led to Brexit. It is more than he entered Downing Street with in 2010.
It’s a minority view. Imposing a No Deal on a large majority opposed to it will not end well.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
Hammond, Lidington, Gauke, Clark, Wright, Stewart, Lewis, Mundell, Bradley and Stride all said to be facing the axe, even Fox and Hinds under threat
There are probably some on here who have backed all of those to succeed Theresa May as prime minister. Well, all except Fox.
It was a leak to the Mail which triggered Macmillan's Night of the Long Knives, and that was only seven ministers. 14 is incredible.
May initially sacked 5 so 10 "said to be facing the axe" (as opposed to being subject to speculation) is not that incredible for a PM seeking a change of direction from that which prompted an unprecedented number of Cabinet ministers to resign.
Just a 5% lead for Remain over No Deal, the hardest of Brexits, is really not something diehard Remainers should feel that comfortable with
Just 37% support No Deal. That’s the significant number.
It's a very significant number. By coincidence it is the same percentage Cameron won his overall majority with in 2015, which led to Brexit. It is more than he entered Downing Street with in 2010.
It’s a minority view. Imposing a No Deal on a large majority opposed to it will not end well.
Less than 50% outright oppose No Deal if BMG tonight is correct
Honestly, do people not realise that the EU is quite capable of reading the papers here and following what is going in British politics and making their own assessment of the strategic and political nous of people like IDS, Boris and others?
They do realise. Very few people here are stupid. However, people are very good at ignoring facts when it suits them.
Yes the European Parliament can, but I'm talking voters at a General Election. This may be surprising to you but I believe it is the voters that matter.
Every single Prime Minister without fail since WWII has faced a General Election. The last Prime Minister excluding WWII (when elections were suspended) not to face a General Election was Balfour over a century ago.
How many Commission Presidents have been elected at a General Election and how many have gone into an election seeking re-election?
Juncker arguably was. Who else?
You’re not talking about voters at a general election. We don’t have a system of direct election of the PM. Your entire pitch has been that the electorate via parliament can throw Boris out even though he will have been been appointed earlier by an ageing membership of a dying party. The PM serves at the discretion of the UK Parliament as does the Commission serve at the pleasure of the EU Parliament.
No, my entire pitch is the electorate via elections to Parliament can throw out Boris and his party at the next election. Elections that EVERY SINGLE post-war PM and EVERY SINGLE non-war PM since Balfour over a century ago have faced.
Due to the absurd electoral system the EU uses as well as how divorced it is from the voters, the future of the Commission is not seriously debated and changed at the ballot box.
That's been my proposal all along. Kick the Irish border issue into the long grass and deal with it in the future relationship negotiations where it rightfully belongs.
And, why would the EU play along with this cunning plan ? Oh, I forgot, we are so important...…...
Well, it is not as though the EU generally is averse to fudging things and kicking them into the long grass so it is not an outright crazy idea, but I think if they were going to go for that idea they would have suggested it by now. Whether it is a good idea for them to do so or not, they have decided to stake it all on not bending on that point.
They have already baulked at no deal twice. My guess is that they will again, fearing a hole in their budget. It remains in both sides interest to keep this going until the end of the current budget cycle. They get their handouts, we get free, unlimited access.
The problem for both sides really kicks in from January 2021.
Their budget needs to be approved, no British PM can be seen to sign up to it. Meanwhile, the UK parties who favour remain have to explain why we should give £45bn-£200bn over the next parliament to the EU, rather than £10bn under leave. And then the same again compared to £1bn for leave in the parliament after.
The public won't buy it.
That's why my/Boris's proposal is the right solution. Enter a standstill transition but with Britain out of the EU (and the EU's decision making process) but still following EU rules while we negotiate a new deal.
Relative to the risk of No Deal The EU gains: billions in funding, continuity of trade, the Irish issue is dealt with for now, the pesky Brits are gone from decision making.
The Brits pay billions but gain continuity of trade, time to negotiate the future and the Irish issue is dealt with for now.
So Mrs May's Deal...
The one that has been voted down thrice?
Mrs May's deal was always based on the presumption of departure in March 2019, with the bill calculated accordingly.
A March 2019 'divorce' cost was £39bn. A December 2020 divorce costs considerably less whilst maintaining superior access for 19 months.
The kick is from January 2021. The divorce is estimated at £2bn annually for 7 years, while remain could be as high as £20bn with an abolished rebate - the stated objective of EU officials.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
Sensible Tsipras! Greece is in a much better place now.
Just a 5% lead for Remain over No Deal, the hardest of Brexits, is really not something diehard Remainers should feel that comfortable with
Just 37% support No Deal. That’s the significant number.
It's a very significant number. By coincidence it is the same percentage Cameron won his overall majority with in 2015, which led to Brexit. It is more than he entered Downing Street with in 2010.
It’s a minority view. Imposing a No Deal on a large majority opposed to it will not end well.
All options are minority views, that has been the issue for a long time. No deal is no different to every other option in that respect.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
Sensible Tsipras! Greece is in a much better place now.
It was an interesting moment, when in such a short span of time such near revolutionary fervour u- turned in the face of cold hard reality.
Yes the European Parliament can, but I'm talking voters at a General Election. This may be surprising to you but I believe it is the voters that matter.
Every single Prime Minister without fail since WWII has faced a General Election. The last Prime Minister excluding WWII (when elections were suspended) not to face a General Election was Balfour over a century ago.
How many Commission Presidents have been elected at a General Election and how many have gone into an election seeking re-election?
Juncker arguably was. Who else?
You’re not talking about voters at a general election. We don’t have a system of direct election of the PM. Your entire pitch has been that the electorate via parliament can throw Boris out even though he will have been been appointed earlier by an ageing membership of a dying party. The PM serves at the discretion of the UK Parliament as does the Commission serve at the pleasure of the EU Parliament.
No, my entire pitch is the electorate via elections to Parliament can throw out Boris and his party at the next election. Elections that EVERY SINGLE post-war PM and EVERY SINGLE non-war PM since Balfour over a century ago have faced.
Due to the absurd electoral system the EU uses as well as how divorced it is from the voters, the future of the Commission is not seriously debated and changed at the ballot box.
The EU Parliament can also throw out the Commission at any point, at the next EU election, at this election, earlier, later, what’s your point? Boris is being appointed by a bunch of people who paid for the privilege and the electorate might not get a say for another three years, during which time he exercises immense executive power on behalf of Queen Elizabeth II. How is that more democratic than the EU? The newly elected EU Parliament may well reject the latest Commission, at least I have an influence over my MEP, I have none over the Tory Party.
Just a 5% lead for Remain over No Deal, the hardest of Brexits, is really not something diehard Remainers should feel that comfortable with
Just 37% support No Deal. That’s the significant number.
It's a very significant number. By coincidence it is the same percentage Cameron won his overall majority with in 2015, which led to Brexit. It is more than he entered Downing Street with in 2010.
It’s a minority view. Imposing a No Deal on a large majority opposed to it will not end well.
All options are minority views, that has been the issue for a long time.
Indeed. People can argue direction of travel if they like but it is not as strong a case. It's like when people moan at an election result by adding up all the non winner votes, ignoring that doesnt bode well for any side, indeed even worse for the others.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
...and we're back to this again. People are saying that Boris is only bluffing and is holding up no-deal as a negotiating card. I think he's not bluffing (well, I think he's out-and-out-lying, but let's stay polite) and his plan is to deliberately fail, blame the EU, and make us fall out unprepared on October 31st or whenevs. My intent was to point out a precedent.
I can believe @Hyfud's scenario of "fail, fall out, blame EU, get landslide", because it's backed up by polls and fits what we know about the various personalities (and I am moving cash out of sterling on that basis). But I find it difficult to believe in your scenario of "talk hard, they fold, profit!" because it doesn't fit the precedents not the personalities.
Yes the European Parliament can, but I'm talking voters at a General Election. This may be surprising to you but I believe it is the voters that matter.
Every single Prime Minister without fail since WWII has faced a General Election. The last Prime Minister excluding WWII (when elections were suspended) not to face a General Election was Balfour over a century ago.
How many Commission Presidents have been elected at a General Election and how many have gone into an election seeking re-election?
Juncker arguably was. Who else?
You’re not talking about voters at a general election. We don’t have a system of direct election of the PM. Your entire pitch has been that the electorate via parliament can throw Boris out even though he will have been been appointed earlier by an ageing membership of a dying party. The PM serves at the discretion of the UK Parliament as does the Commission serve at the pleasure of the EU Parliament.
No, my entire pitch is the electorate via elections to Parliament can throw out Boris and his party at the next election. Elections that EVERY SINGLE post-war PM and EVERY SINGLE non-war PM since Balfour over a century ago have faced.
Due to the absurd electoral system the EU uses as well as how divorced it is from the voters, the future of the Commission is not seriously debated and changed at the ballot box.
The EU Parliament can also throw out the Commission at any point, at the next EU election, at this election, earlier, later, what’s your point? Boris is being appointed by a bunch of people who paid for the privilege and the electorate might not get a say for another three years, during which time he exercises immense executive power on behalf of Queen Elizabeth II. How is that more democratic than the EU? The newly elected EU Parliament may well reject the latest Commission, at least I have an influence over my MEP, I have none over the Tory Party.
Did those MEPs have any influence in the choice of the next EU president? Doesn't seem as though they did.
Yes the European Parliament can, but I'm talking voters at a General Election. This may be surprising to you but I believe it is the voters that matter.
Every single Prime Minister without fail since WWII has faced a General Election. The last Prime Minister excluding WWII (when elections were suspended) not to face a General Election was Balfour over a century ago.
How many Commission Presidents have been elected at a General Election and how many have gone into an election seeking re-election?
Juncker arguably was. Who else?
You’re not talking about voters at a general election. We don’t have a system of direct election of the PM. Your entire pitch has been that the electorate via parliament can throw Boris out even though he will have been been appointed earlier by an ageing membership of a dying party. The PM serves at the discretion of the UK Parliament as does the Commission serve at the pleasure of the EU Parliament.
No, my entire pitch is the electorate via elections to Parliament can throw out Boris and his party at the next election. Elections that EVERY SINGLE post-war PM and EVERY SINGLE non-war PM since Balfour over a century ago have faced.
Due to the absurd electoral system the EU uses as well as how divorced it is from the voters, the future of the Commission is not seriously debated and changed at the ballot box.
The EU Parliament can also throw out the Commission at any point, at the next EU election, at this election, earlier, later, what’s your point? Boris is being appointed by a bunch of people who paid for the privilege and the electorate might not get a say for another three years, during which time he exercises immense executive power on behalf of Queen Elizabeth II. How is that more democratic than the EU? The newly elected EU Parliament may well reject the latest Commission, at least I have an influence over my MEP, I have none over the Tory Party.
You seem to be belabouring under the misapprehension that only Tories get a say in who the next PM is. The UK Parliament can throw out Boris at any point. There is every possibility that a VONC could be called within the next 3 years.
I'm curious what influence you have over your MEP that you don't have over your MP. Please elaborate.
That's been my proposal all along. Kick the Irish border issue into the long grass and deal with it in the future relationship negotiations where it rightfully belongs.
And, why would the EU play along with this cunning plan ? Oh, I forgot, we are so important...…...
Well, it is not as though the EU generally is averse to fudging things and kicking them into the long grass so it is not an outright crazy idea, but I think if they were going to go for that idea they would have suggested it by now. Whether it is a good idea for them to do so or not, they have decided to stake it all on not bending on that point.
They have already baulked at no deal twice. My guess is that they will again, fearing a hole in their budget. It remains in both sides interest to keep this going until the end of the current budget cycle. They get their handouts, we get free, unlimited access.
The problem for both sides really kicks in from January 2021.
Their budget needs to be approved
The public won't buy it.
That's why my/Boris's proposal is the right solution. Enter a standstill transition but with Britain out of the EU (and the EU's decision making process) but still following EU rules while we negotiate a new deal.
Relative to the risk of No Deal The EU gains: billions in funding, continuity of trade, the Irish issue is dealt with for now, the pesky Brits are gone from decision making.
The Brits pay billions but gain continuity of trade, time to negotiate the future and the Irish issue is dealt with for now.
So Mrs May's Deal...
The one that has been voted down thrice?
Mrs May's deal was always based on the presumption of departure in March 2019, with the bill calculated accordingly.
A March 2019 'divorce' cost was £39bn. A December 2020 divorce costs considerably less whilst maintaining superior access for 19 months.
The kick is from January 2021. The divorce is estimated at £2bn annually for 7 years, while remain could be as high as £20bn with an abolished rebate - the stated objective of EU officials.
Though unlikely for an FTA by 31 Dec 2020, so needing at least a further years subs.
All the same issues would still apply of course, CU and SM vs No Deal. I am not sure that would be any closer to resolution.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
The EU believe that Boris isn’t either. What you’re saying is that he’s a better actor than Tsipiras or what? Maybe Boris is prepared to do so - personally I don’t believe it and I don’t think the EU do either. He has never really shown much courage or a willingness to take unpopular decisions. He just wants to be loved.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
Well that's alright then. Whew. I was worried for a minute.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
Sensible Tsipras! Greece is in a much better place now.
It was an interesting moment, when in such a short span of time such near revolutionary fervour u- turned in the face of cold hard reality.
And while there was some hit to Syrizia's polling, it was not fatal, and indeed has recovered significantly since.
That's been my proposal all along. Kick the Irish border issue into the long grass and deal with it in the future relationship negotiations where it rightfully belongs.
And, why would the EU play along with this cunning plan ? Oh, I forgot, we are so important...…...
Well, it is not as though the EU generally is averse to fudging things and kicking them into the long grass so it is not an outright crazy idea, but I think if they were going to go for that idea they would have suggested it by now. Whether it is a good idea for them to do so or not, they have decided to stake it all on not bending on that point.
To date they haven't needed to bend and with May as PM, Hammond as Chancellor and Cabinet ministers like Gauke etc it has been clear the government never intended to actually exit without its beloved precious deal.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
I think they will go to the wire and slightly beyond on the grounds that they could live with the risk of a few weeks of disruption to their export markets in order to test the UK to the limit. (How the Irish Government treats their border would be particularly interesting during that time.) After that I think they will be prepared to negotiate further.
The Leave camp have I think made a tactical error by failing to challenge the Remainer concept of "No Deal" as being a permanent state we are stuck with after 31st October. It is not - a subsequent treaty covering trade et al could be agreed at any point.
Yes the European Parliament can, but I'm talking voters at a General Election. This may be surprising to you but I believe it is the voters that matter.
Every single Prime Minister without fail since WWII has faced a General Election. The last Prime Minister excluding WWII (when elections were suspended) not to face a General Election was Balfour over a century ago.
How many Commission Presidents have been elected at a General Election and how many have gone into an election seeking re-election?
Juncker arguably was. Who else?
You’re not talking about voters at a general election. We don’t have a system of direct election of the PM. Your entire pitch has been that the electorate via parliament can throw Boris out even though he will have been been appointed earlier by an ageing membership of a dying party. The PM serves at the discretion of the UK Parliament as does the Commission serve at the pleasure of the EU Parliament.
No, my entire pitch is the electorate via elections to Parliament can throw out Boris and his party at the next election. Elections that EVERY SINGLE post-war PM and EVERY SINGLE non-war PM since Balfour over a century ago have faced.
Due to the absurd electoral system the EU uses as well as how divorced it is from the voters, the future of the Commission is not seriously debated and changed at the ballot box.
The EU Parliament can also throw out the Commission at any point, at the next EU election, at this election, earlier, later, what’s your point? Boris is being appointed by a bunch of people who paid for the privilege and the electorate might not get a say for another three years, during which time he exercises immense executive power on behalf of Queen Elizabeth II. How is that more democratic than the EU? The newly elected EU Parliament may well reject the latest Commission, at least I have an influence over my MEP, I have none over the Tory Party.
You seem to be belabouring under the misapprehension that only Tories get a say in who the next PM is. The UK Parliament can throw out Boris at any point. There is every possibility that a VONC could be called within the next 3 years.
I'm curious what influence you have over your MEP that you don't have over your MP. Please elaborate.
My MP, even though he is a member of the Tory Party, is not choosing the leader. The wider membership is. I have no say over that. The departing PM advises the Queen who to call to form a government. She will recommend the person her party has selected. I have no say over that either.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
...and we're back to this again. People are saying that Boris is only bluffing and is holding up no-deal as a negotiating card. I think he's not bluffing (well, I think he's out-and-out-lying, but let's stay polite) and his plan is to deliberately fail, blame the EU, and make us fall out unprepared on October 31st or whenevs. My intent was to point out a precedent.
I can believe @Hyfud's scenario of "fail, fall out, blame EU, get landslide", because it's backed up by polls and fits what we know about the various personalities (and I am moving cash out of sterling on that basis). But I find it difficult to believe in your scenario of "talk hard, they fold, profit!" because it doesn't fit the precedents not the personalities.
I'm not saying that Boris is bluffing. I'm saying he has to be prepared to actually no deal Brexit, and be believed to be prepared to no deal Brexit in order to get a better deal.
At the minute the EU don't believe the UK under May was serious. Because the UK under May was not serious. So they had no reason to blink.
Now they are waiting to see what develops next. Can Hunt somehow defeat Boris? If so they know the UK is not serious still. Can Parliament somehow thwart Boris? If so they know the UK is not serious still. Can Boris defeat Boris? If so they know the UK is not serious still.
However if Boris can get elected, get Britain organised and take us to the very brink then - and only then - at 2 minutes to midnight a fudge will appear. Because the EU don't actually want no deal. Ireland don't actually want no deal. The backstop is designed to prevent, not cause, no deal.
That's been my proposal all along. Kick the Irish border issue into the long grass and deal with it in the future relationship negotiations where it rightfully belongs.
And, why would the EU play along with this cunning plan ? Oh, I forgot, we are so important...…...
Well, it is not as though the EU generally is averse to fudging things and kicking them into the long grass so it is not an outright crazy idea, but I think if they were going to go for that idea they would have suggested it by now. Whether it is a good idea for them to do so or not, they have decided to stake it all on not bending on that point.
To date they haven't needed to bend and with May as PM, Hammond as Chancellor and Cabinet ministers like Gauke etc it has been clear the government never intended to actually exit without its beloved precious deal.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
I think they will go to the wire and slightly beyond on the grounds that they could live with the risk of a few weeks of disruption to their export markets in order to test the UK to the limit. (How the Irish Government treats their border would be particularly interesting during that time.) After that I think they will be prepared to negotiate further.
The Leave camp have I think made a tactical error by failing to challenge the Remainer concept of "No Deal" as being a permanent state we are stuck with after 31st October. It is not - a subsequent treaty covering trade et al could be agreed at any point.
Not likely to be on better terms after than before No Deal, indeed very much the opposite.
My MP, even though he is a member of the Tory Party, is not choosing the leader. The wider membership is. I have no say over that. The departing PM advises the Queen who to call to form a government. She will recommend the person her party has selected. I have no say over that either.
Your MP gets to endorse or vote down the new government, which will be formed by MPs we elected at the last UK election.
Unlike this new Commission which never faced an election, likely never will face an election and is led by someone who was never elected at a European election.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
The EU believe that Boris isn’t either. What you’re saying is that he’s a better actor than Tsipiras or what? Maybe Boris is prepared to do so - personally I don’t believe it and I don’t think the EU do either. He has never really shown much courage or a willingness to take unpopular decisions. He just wants to be loved.
Tsipiras had his back against the wall. He had literally ran out of money. He needed a bailout and without it he couldn't pay his nationals pensions or anything else.
Britain is completely different. The question is simply what path we want to take, we don't need their money and they want ours.
He who pays the piper calls the tune. The EU paid in Greece, we pay the EU. Different ballgame.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
Yes the European Parliament can, but I'm talking voters at a General Election. This may be surprising to you but I believe it is the voters that matter.
Every single Prime Minister without fail since WWII has faced a General Election. The last Prime Minister excluding WWII (when elections were suspended) not to face a General Election was Balfour over a century ago.
How many Commission Presidents have been elected at a General Election and how many have gone into an election seeking re-election?
Juncker arguably was. Who else?
You’re not talking about voters at a general election. We don’t have a system of direct election of the PM. Your entire pitch has been that the electorate via parliament can throw Boris out even though he will have been been appointed earlier by an ageing membership of a dying party. The PM serves at the discretion of the UK Parliament as does the Commission serve at the pleasure of the EU Parliament.
No, my entire pitch is the electorate via elections to Parliament can throw out Boris and his party at the next election. Elections that EVERY SINGLE post-war PM and EVERY SINGLE non-war PM since Balfour over a century ago have faced.
Due to the absurd electoral system the EU uses as well as how divorced it is from the voters, the future of the Commission is not seriously debated and changed at the ballot box.
The EU Parliament can also throw out the Commission at any point, at the next EU election, at this election, earlier, later, what’s your point? Boris is being appointed by a bunch of people who paid for the privilege and the electorate might not get a say for another three years, during which time he exercises immense executive power on behalf of Queen Elizabeth II. How is that more democratic than the EU? The newly elected EU Parliament may well reject the latest Commission, at least I have an influence over my MEP, I have none over the Tory Party.
This is quite mad. You're enthusing the democracy of The European Union.
Sunil - Enjoy your time in bonnie Scotland. Remember only 45pc of us want to make you foreign!
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
...and we're back to this again. People are saying that Boris is only bluffing and is holding up no-deal as a negotiating card. I think he's not bluffing (well, I think he's out-and-out-lying, but let's stay polite) and his plan is to deliberately fail, blame the EU, and make us fall out unprepared on October 31st or whenevs. My intent was to point out a precedent.
I can believe @Hyfud's scenario of "fail, fall out, blame EU, get landslide", because it's backed up by polls and fits what we know about the various personalities (and I am moving cash out of sterling on that basis). But I find it difficult to believe in your scenario of "talk hard, they fold, profit!" because it doesn't fit the precedents not the personalities.
I'm not saying that Boris is bluffing. I'm saying he has to be prepared to actually no deal Brexit, and be believed to be prepared to no deal Brexit in order to get a better deal.
At the minute the EU don't believe the UK under May was serious. Because the UK under May was not serious. So they had no reason to blink.
Now they are waiting to see what develops next. Can Hunt somehow defeat Boris? If so they know the UK is not serious still. Can Parliament somehow thwart Boris? If so they know the UK is not serious still. Can Boris defeat Boris? If so they know the UK is not serious still.
However if Boris can get elected, get Britain organised and take us to the very brink then - and only then - at 2 minutes to midnight a fudge will appear. Because the EU don't actually want no deal. Ireland don't actually want no deal. The backstop is designed to prevent, not cause, no deal.
And here’s you putting out the cunning plan to the whole world.
I think they will go to the wire and slightly beyond on the grounds that they could live with the risk of a few weeks of disruption to their export markets in order to test the UK to the limit. (How the Irish Government treats their border would be particularly interesting during that time.) After that I think they will be prepared to negotiate further.
The Leave camp have I think made a tactical error by failing to challenge the Remainer concept of "No Deal" as being a permanent state we are stuck with after 31st October. It is not - a subsequent treaty covering trade et al could be agreed at any point.
I agree with that and I have made the point very often (as have other leavers).
The EU are bluffing over the backstop. The very purpose of the backstop is to prevent a potential future no deal, so why on earth cause a no deal over it? It is illogical.
If we call the EU's bluff then the EU faces two unpalatable choices. Erect a hard border and the Irish will be fuming and want it removed. Don't erect a hard border and their single market has a big hole in its border that will need dealing with to maintain its integrity. The UK will face one choice: meander through dealing with whatever issues crop up, or fold and go back on bended knees desperate for a deal (like Tsipiras).
Time is on the UK's side, not the EU's. Since the biggest risks to the UK are immediate and transitionary, the longer the UK is out of the EU without a deal the more dealt with and distant the problems become. We'll still want a deal, as we do now, but we won't be desperate.
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
The EU believe that Boris isn’t either. What you’re saying is that he’s a better actor than Tsipiras or what? Maybe Boris is prepared to do so - personally I don’t believe it and I don’t think the EU do either. He has never really shown much courage or a willingness to take unpopular decisions. He just wants to be loved.
Tsipiras had his back against the wall. He had literally ran out of money. He needed a bailout and without it he couldn't pay his nationals pensions or anything else.
Britain is completely different. The question is simply what path we want to take, we don't need their money and they want ours.
He who pays the piper calls the tune. The EU paid in Greece, we pay the EU. Different ballgame.
They don’t want our money more than they want to preserve the integrity of the EU. They believe in Europe as much as you believe in the UK. Money doesn’t come into it anymore. They are happy to take the financial hit as much as you say we are.
And here’s you putting out the cunning plan to the whole world.
It isn't a "cunning plan" and it isn't a secret. May trying to keep her plans secret is part of why she failed.
'You compromise with us and we have a deal, don't compromise and we walk away. Your choice.' . . . far from being a 'cunning plan' it is very basic negotiating. The choice is theirs then, would they prefer to have no deal - or a deal minus a backstop that only exists to prevent no deal.
That's been my proposal all along. Kick the Irish border issue into the long grass and deal with it in the future relationship negotiations where it rightfully belongs.
And, why would the EU play along with this cunning plan ? Oh, I forgot, we are so important...…...
Well, it is not as though the EU generally is averse to fudging things and kicking them into the long grass so it is not an outright crazy idea, but I think if they were going to go for that idea they would have suggested it by now. Whether it is a good idea for them to do so or not, they have decided to stake it all on not bending on that point.
To date they haven't needed to bend and with May as PM, Hammond as Chancellor and Cabinet ministers like Gauke etc it has been clear the government never intended to actually exit without its beloved precious deal.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
I think they will go to the wire and slightly beyond on the grounds that they could live with the risk of a few weeks of disruption to their export markets in order to test the UK to the limit. (How the Irish Government treats their border would be particularly interesting during that time.) After that I think they will be prepared to negotiate further.
The Leave camp have I think made a tactical error by failing to challenge the Remainer concept of "No Deal" as being a permanent state we are stuck with after 31st October. It is not - a subsequent treaty covering trade et al could be agreed at any point.
Not likely to be on better terms after than before No Deal, indeed very much the opposite.
On the contrary. And anyway having offered us absolutely nothing it would be hard for them to offer less than they already have.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
It won't devastate us. If some of those 44% of exports have to pay tariffs or deal with non-tariff barriers then so be it. Its a shame, but it isn't the end of the world.
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
56% of our exports go outside the EU now as your figures confirm, it would be difficult but not devastating if we trade with the EU on WTO terms as we do with most of the rest of the world
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
It won't devastate us. If some of those 44% of exports have to pay tariffs or deal with non-tariff barriers then so be it. Its a shame, but it isn't the end of the world.
They see it the same way with the reassurance that it will damage them less. So why would they blink as you have, in this very thread, said they would when faced with someone who “means it”?
I think they will go to the wire and slightly beyond on the grounds that they could live with the risk of a few weeks of disruption to their export markets in order to test the UK to the limit. (How the Irish Government treats their border would be particularly interesting during that time.) After that I think they will be prepared to negotiate further.
The Leave camp have I think made a tactical error by failing to challenge the Remainer concept of "No Deal" as being a permanent state we are stuck with after 31st October. It is not - a subsequent treaty covering trade et al could be agreed at any point.
I agree with that and I have made the point very often (as have other leavers).
The EU are bluffing over the backstop. The very purpose of the backstop is to prevent a potential future no deal, so why on earth cause a no deal over it? It is illogical.
If we call the EU's bluff then the EU faces two unpalatable choices. Erect a hard border and the Irish will be fuming and want it removed. Don't erect a hard border and their single market has a big hole in its border that will need dealing with to maintain its integrity. The UK will face one choice: meander through dealing with whatever issues crop up, or fold and go back on bended knees desperate for a deal (like Tsipiras).
Time is on the UK's side, not the EU's. Since the biggest risks to the UK are immediate and transitionary, the longer the UK is out of the EU without a deal the more dealt with and distant the problems become. We'll still want a deal, as we do now, but we won't be desperate.
The GFA agreement needs to be re-negotiated given Brexit. I'm sure our side is not bluffing when they say they don't want one (given GFA) - I presume their side is not bluffing either (because of GFA?).
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Because Tsipiras, like May, was not prepared to walk away.
The EU believe that Boris isn’t either. What you’re saying is that he’s a better actor than Tsipiras or what? Maybe Boris is prepared to do so - personally I don’t believe it and I don’t think the EU do either. He has never really shown much courage or a willingness to take unpopular decisions. He just wants to be loved.
Tsipiras had his back against the wall. He had literally ran out of money. He needed a bailout and without it he couldn't pay his nationals pensions or anything else.
Britain is completely different. The question is simply what path we want to take, we don't need their money and they want ours.
He who pays the piper calls the tune. The EU paid in Greece, we pay the EU. Different ballgame.
They don’t want our money more than they want to preserve the integrity of the EU. They believe in Europe as much as you believe in the UK. Money doesn’t come into it anymore. They are happy to take the financial hit as much as you say we are.
The integrity of the EU is damaged by a no deal Brexit, unless they put up a hard border the Irish vehemently oppose.
Boris is offering the EU what it wants, just slightly less of what it wants. At the moment its being greedy and going for everything, but some is better than nothing and that is why a compromise is better for them than no deal.
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
The English did too in 1964 and February 1974.
However if the English do not not only not get the Government they voted for but do not get the Brexit they voted for on top of that, that will lead to a whole different level of anger and a surge in support for an English Parliament if not outright English independence from the UK
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
Before or after devolution?
Both. The UK Government has a far more significant day to day impact in Scotland and Wales than the EU does anywhere
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
It won't devastate us. If some of those 44% of exports have to pay tariffs or deal with non-tariff barriers then so be it. Its a shame, but it isn't the end of the world.
They see it the same way with the reassurance that it will damage them less. So why would they blink as you have, in this very thread, said they would when faced with someone who “means it”?
Because that is the only way to meet their stated goals. A transitionary agreement, for the duration of the agreement, allows them to both avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland and allows them to maintain the integrity of the EU.
It doesn't deal with the future, but that is the preserve of the future negotiations.
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
Before or after devolution?
Both. The UK Government has a far more significant day to day impact in Scotland and Wales than the EU does anywhere
So the EU is both insignificant And democractic - what's not to love eh?
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
Before or after devolution?
Both. The UK Government has a far more significant day to day impact in Scotland and Wales than the EU does anywhere
Yes but the UK Government isn't implementing devolved matters in Scotland or Wales, it is in England.
To date that hasn't mattered because at all times to date since devolution the lead party in England has been the lead party in the UK by MPs (of course by votes the Tories won in England in 2005 but Labour won more MPs). The ticking timebomb of a constitutional crisis is what happens for devolved matters when one party controls the majority of English MPs and another party controls Downing Street.
If Scottish MPs abstain from English matters (as is the SNP's policy) then the opposition would have a majority on English matters. Good luck with that!
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
The English did too in 1964 and February 1974.
However if they do not not not only not get the Government they voted for but do not get the Brexit they voted for on top of that, that will lead to a whole different level of anger
Labour beat the Conservatives in the popular vote in England in 1964 and in Feb 1974 we only had to wait six or seven months for it to be reversed. As for Brexit...who knows. The English have always voted for Unionist parties so I am sure we would accept the democratic will of the British people as a whole.
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
Before or after devolution?
Both. The UK Government has a far more significant day to day impact in Scotland and Wales than the EU does anywhere
So the EU is both insignificant And democractic - what's not to love eh?
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
Before or after devolution?
Both. The UK Government has a far more significant day to day impact in Scotland and Wales than the EU does anywhere
Yes but the UK Government isn't implementing devolved matters in Scotland or Wales, it is in England.
To date that hasn't mattered because at all times to date since devolution the lead party in England has been the lead party in the UK by MPs (of course by votes the Tories won in England in 2005 but Labour won more MPs). The ticking timebomb of a constitutional crisis is what happens for devolved matters when one party controls the majority of English MPs and another party controls Downing Street.
If Scottish MPs abstain from English matters (as is the SNP's policy) then the opposition would have a majority on English matters. Good luck with that!
It's not "SNP policy" - they were always against it because they're vote rigging shits.
But I believe EVEL already exists - first thing I found on the matter.
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
The English did too in 1964 and February 1974.
However if they do not not not only not get the Government they voted for but do not get the Brexit they voted for on top of that, that will lead to a whole different level of anger
Labour beat the Conservatives in the popular vote in England in 1964 and in Feb 1974 we only had to wait six or seven months for it to be reversed. As for Brexit...who knows. The English have always voted for Unionist parties so I am sure we would accept the democratic will of the British people as a whole.
For British matters yes.
For English laws? When the Scots abstain and the opposition thus has a majority of Parliament? What's your solution there? How can you govern when the opposition has a majority?
It will be in the interests of the SNP to abstain on English matters too, which is why they do so, because it will cause tension within the UK which is their goal.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
56% of our exports go outside the EU now as your figures confirm, it would be difficult but not devastating if we trade with the EU on WTO terms as we do with most of the rest of the world
It would be devastating to suddenly have barriers put up to nearly half our trade when none had been there before.
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
Before or after devolution?
Both. The UK Government has a far more significant day to day impact in Scotland and Wales than the EU does anywhere
Yes but the UK Government isn't implementing devolved matters in Scotland or Wales, it is in England.
To date that hasn't mattered because at all times to date since devolution the lead party in England has been the lead party in the UK by MPs (of course by votes the Tories won in England in 2005 but Labour won more MPs). The ticking timebomb of a constitutional crisis is what happens for devolved matters when one party controls the majority of English MPs and another party controls Downing Street.
If Scottish MPs abstain from English matters (as is the SNP's policy) then the opposition would have a majority on English matters. Good luck with that!
It's not "SNP policy" - they were always against it because they're vote rigging shits.
But I believe EVEL already exists - first thing I found on the matter.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
56% of our exports go outside the EU now as your figures confirm, it would be difficult but not devastating if we trade with the EU on WTO terms as we do with most of the rest of the world
It would be devastating to suddenly have barriers put up to nearly half our trade when none had been there before.
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
Before or after devolution?
Both. The UK Government has a far more significant day to day impact in Scotland and Wales than the EU does anywhere
Yes but the UK Government isn't implementing devolved matters in Scotland or Wales, it is in England.
To date that hasn't mattered because at all times to date since devolution the lead party in England has been the lead party in the UK by MPs (of course by votes the Tories won in England in 2005 but Labour won more MPs). The ticking timebomb of a constitutional crisis is what happens for devolved matters when one party controls the majority of English MPs and another party controls Downing Street.
If Scottish MPs abstain from English matters (as is the SNP's policy) then the opposition would have a majority on English matters. Good luck with that!
It's not "SNP policy" - they were always against it because they're vote rigging shits.
But I believe EVEL already exists - first thing I found on the matter.
Indeed it does. Which is again a ticking timebomb.
The first election which results in a majority of English MPs sitting on the opposition benches will cause a constitutional crisis.
Another amazing Tory f**k up.
Its not a f**k up by the Tories.
The f**k up was by Labour in 1997 not thinking up a serious solution to English devolution. EVEL is a step in the right direction and means the Tories if they win a majority in England will be able to veto any and every single English only law on devolved matters a Labour led government tries to pass. As they should be able to do so. How have the Tories f**ked up there? I'm sure they'll be distraught to be able to veto every law the government tries to pass.
Tories plus Brexit Party plus DUP on 303 combined on those numbers
So, not able to form a government, with half the Tory MPs gone, probably including Boris himself...
Very close to forming a Government and Tories plus Brexit Party would win a majority of MPs in England on those numbers
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
Corbyn forming a Government only with Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs though to dilute or reverse Brexit would increase the tensions in the Union yet further and see a rise in English nationalism
Yes, but it’s still not an English Parliament. Generations of Scots and Welsh have sucked it up when they didn’t get what they voted for and I’m sure the English can too.
The English did too in 1964 and February 1974.
However if they do not not not only not get the Government they voted for but do not get the Brexit they voted for on top of that, that will lead to a whole different level of anger
Labour beat the Conservatives in the popular vote in England in 1964 and in Feb 1974 we only had to wait six or seven months for it to be reversed. As for Brexit...who knows. The English have always voted for Unionist parties so I am sure we would accept the democratic will of the British people as a whole.
Not true, the Tories got 44.1% in England in 1964 and Labour got 43.5%.
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
It won't devastate us. If some of those 44% of exports have to pay tariffs or deal with non-tariff barriers then so be it. Its a shame, but it isn't the end of the world.
I agree. The panic about what happens to our EU exports in the long-term is overdone. There will be significant one-off adjustment costs in many industries, but to describe this as the greatest crisis since the war, or whatever, is ridiculous. Tariffs average I think about 4%, which the sterling/euro exchange rate often changes by in a week. Non-tariffs barriers, though significant in many industries, are not overwhelming overall.
THE EU'S OWN STUDY put the benefits of the single market at 0.5-1.0% of GDP - at most nine months' economic growth.
And we'll save >£200m/week - double that if NI rejoins the Republic.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
Absolute numbers are what matter, not the sophistry of comparing percentages calculated on different bases. They sell us £95bn more than we sell them in goods, which is the sector which matters as it is where the single market applies. For the privilege of trading in the single market we also contribute £11bn more to the EU budget than we get back, with much of what we get back being on terms dictated by the EU. If tariffs are applied then the difference in trade volume means the UK will get much more from our import duties than our firms pay to the EU, so the government could cushion the blow and have a lot left to spare. The EU are highly vulnerable, and they should be worried that the UK may at last have a government that recognises that.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
Absolute numbers are what matter, not the sophistry of comparing percentages calculated on different bases. They sell us £95bn more than we sell them in goods, which is the sector which matters as it is where the single market applies. For the privilege of trading in the single market we also contribute £11bn more to the EU budget than we get back, with much of what we get back being on terms dictated by the EU. If tariffs are applied then the difference in trade volume means the UK will get much more from our import duties than our firms pay to the EU, so the government could cushion the blow and have a lot left to spare. The EU are highly vulnerable, and they should be worried that the UK may at last have a government that recognises that.
Indeed. A 4% tariff WTO average even if it applies to the less than half our exports which the EU represents is not the end of the world.
And pound sterling will probably fall by more than that. So exporters will likely be better off even with tariffs.
With a clearout of these Cabinet ministers following May's exit the EU will be looking at a very different British government. At that point a big block of Eurofudge may be tastier than going to the wire and seeing if Britain really is serious or not.
During the Greek debt crisis, the Greeks held a referendum. The papers were full of florid dialogue. They agreed that Tsipras should go to the EU and asked for better terms. He did so. The EU ignored him, and, quietly and without any fuss, dismembered him.
Except Tsipras was only leading the 50th largest economy in the world, Boris will be leading the 5th largest economy in the world and the EU's biggest export destination
We are the destination of roughly 16% of EU exports. That’s the largest single destination sure, just above the US at 15%. However the EU is 44% of our export market. So it is true that no deal would harm the EU. But it would devastate us and they k ow we know it.
Absolute numbers are what matter, not the sophistry of comparing percentages calculated on different bases. They sell us £95bn more than we sell them in goods, which is the sector which matters as it is where the single market applies. For the privilege of trading in the single market we also contribute £11bn more to the EU budget than we get back, with much of what we get back being on terms dictated by the EU. If tariffs are applied then the difference in trade volume means the UK will get much more from our import duties than our firms pay to the EU, so the government could cushion the blow and have a lot left to spare. The EU are highly vulnerable, and they should be worried that the UK may at last have a government that recognises that.
Indeed. A 4% tariff WTO average even if it applies to the less than half our exports which the EU represents is not the end of the world.
And pound sterling will probably fall by more than that. So exporters will likely be better off even with tariffs.
Some of the tariffs collected by the UK government could also be used to directly compensate our exporters for the tariffs paid to the EU, or at least directed towards export orientated industries generally. As the former payments are greater than the latter, there would be something left over for the Exchequer.
Indeed. A 4% tariff WTO average even if it applies to the less than half our exports which the EU represents is not the end of the world.
And pound sterling will probably fall by more than that. So exporters will likely be better off even with tariffs.
Some of the tariffs collected by the UK government could also be used to directly compensate our exporters for the tariffs paid to the EU, or at least directed towards export orientated industries generally. As the former payments are greater than the latter, there would be something left over for the Exchequer.
Considering tariffs are a tax on our consumers I wouldn't view it that blithely but yes there is some truth to that.
The other factor is that while UK exporters to the EU will be softened from any tariffs by a devaluation in the pound, the EU exporters to the UK will suffer a double-whammy of a devaluation in the pound combined with potential tariffs.
A cache of files dated between 2017 (when Boris was Foreign Secretary yes) to just a couple of weeks ago (some after Trump's recent state visit) has been leaked.
To imply Boris or his team is behind this is absurd. Quite clearly the leak is someone who has clearance now, not in the past.
Weren't the Corbyn health claims supposed to have come from the Civil Service?
I may be misremembering, and only typing cus it's late - but didn't the Civil Service use the phrase "too unfit" (Marxist) as opposed to "too ill" (unhealthy)
I'm curious what influence you have over your MEP that you don't have over your MP. Please elaborate.
There is a Green MEP in Brussels right now as a result of my vote in London in May.
A contrast with the UK, where my vote has never been represented in parliament, despite my best efforts since 1987.
Clear enough?
Indeed, there is no control in the EP with their ludicrous voting system. In the UK thankfully where we have a better voting system simply the winner of each seat gets through - and since 1987 you've lost each election. Nothing wrong with losing, there must be winners and losers.
So a company other than YouGov released a poll and suddenly we are not in 4th place on 18%....
Nobody could have seen it coming, I was certainly as taken in as everyone else, from 4th place to 1st place, there must have just been a surge in Labour support in between the polling days.
I have heard if really really concentrate on ignoring non YouGov polls you get suddenly transported to a magical place where other polling companies don't exist....
Comments
The EU have been preparing for some time for a No Deal exit, but it is not what they want.
This is all Game Theory in action.
If the EU think the UK will never seriously no deal (May/Hammond/Gauke led government) they have no reason to compromise. If the EU think the UK is insane and is led by lunatics (Boris/Truss/Patel) then suddenly they do have a reason to compromise. If the EU thinks the UK has blinked again and demonstrated again it will never seriously no deal (Hunt) it again has no reason to compromise.
The one that has been voted down thrice?
Without the backstop it was a sensible deal. The problem with the deal was the backstop and trying to settle a permanent future relationship issue as part of the price of a temporary transition.
Due to the absurd electoral system the EU uses as well as how divorced it is from the voters, the future of the Commission is not seriously debated and changed at the ballot box.
A March 2019 'divorce' cost was £39bn. A December 2020 divorce costs considerably less whilst maintaining superior access for 19 months.
The kick is from January 2021. The divorce is estimated at £2bn annually for 7 years, while remain could be as high as £20bn with an abolished rebate - the stated objective of EU officials.
A horribly hot night to all.
I can believe @Hyfud's scenario of "fail, fall out, blame EU, get landslide", because it's backed up by polls and fits what we know about the various personalities (and I am moving cash out of sterling on that basis). But I find it difficult to believe in your scenario of "talk hard, they fold, profit!" because it doesn't fit the precedents not the personalities.
I'm curious what influence you have over your MEP that you don't have over your MP. Please elaborate.
All the same issues would still apply of course, CU and SM vs No Deal. I am not sure that would be any closer to resolution.
The Leave camp have I think made a tactical error by failing to challenge the Remainer concept of "No Deal" as being a permanent state we are stuck with after 31st October. It is not - a subsequent treaty covering trade et al could be agreed at any point.
At the minute the EU don't believe the UK under May was serious. Because the UK under May was not serious. So they had no reason to blink.
Now they are waiting to see what develops next. Can Hunt somehow defeat Boris? If so they know the UK is not serious still. Can Parliament somehow thwart Boris? If so they know the UK is not serious still. Can Boris defeat Boris? If so they know the UK is not serious still.
However if Boris can get elected, get Britain organised and take us to the very brink then - and only then - at 2 minutes to midnight a fudge will appear. Because the EU don't actually want no deal. Ireland don't actually want no deal. The backstop is designed to prevent, not cause, no deal.
Unlike this new Commission which never faced an election, likely never will face an election and is led by someone who was never elected at a European election.
Britain is completely different. The question is simply what path we want to take, we don't need their money and they want ours.
He who pays the piper calls the tune. The EU paid in Greece, we pay the EU. Different ballgame.
Who would make up the other 30 plus seats to form a government?
Sunil - Enjoy your time in bonnie Scotland. Remember only 45pc of us want to make you foreign!
It’s not an English Parliament yet.
The EU are bluffing over the backstop. The very purpose of the backstop is to prevent a potential future no deal, so why on earth cause a no deal over it? It is illogical.
If we call the EU's bluff then the EU faces two unpalatable choices. Erect a hard border and the Irish will be fuming and want it removed. Don't erect a hard border and their single market has a big hole in its border that will need dealing with to maintain its integrity. The UK will face one choice: meander through dealing with whatever issues crop up, or fold and go back on bended knees desperate for a deal (like Tsipiras).
Time is on the UK's side, not the EU's. Since the biggest risks to the UK are immediate and transitionary, the longer the UK is out of the EU without a deal the more dealt with and distant the problems become. We'll still want a deal, as we do now, but we won't be desperate.
'You compromise with us and we have a deal, don't compromise and we walk away. Your choice.' . . . far from being a 'cunning plan' it is very basic negotiating. The choice is theirs then, would they prefer to have no deal - or a deal minus a backstop that only exists to prevent no deal.
Plus as I said the Tories and Brexit Party combined would have won a majority of English MPs
Time to renegotiate GFA
Boris is offering the EU what it wants, just slightly less of what it wants. At the moment its being greedy and going for everything, but some is better than nothing and that is why a compromise is better for them than no deal.
However if the English do not not only not get the Government they voted for but do not get the Brexit they voted for on top of that, that will lead to a whole different level of anger and a surge in support for an English Parliament if not outright English independence from the UK
Both. The UK Government has a far more significant day to day impact in Scotland and Wales than the EU does anywhere
It doesn't deal with the future, but that is the preserve of the future negotiations.
To date that hasn't mattered because at all times to date since devolution the lead party in England has been the lead party in the UK by MPs (of course by votes the Tories won in England in 2005 but Labour won more MPs). The ticking timebomb of a constitutional crisis is what happens for devolved matters when one party controls the majority of English MPs and another party controls Downing Street.
If Scottish MPs abstain from English matters (as is the SNP's policy) then the opposition would have a majority on English matters. Good luck with that!
But I believe EVEL already exists - first thing I found on the matter.
https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/bills/public/english-votes-for-english-laws/
For English laws? When the Scots abstain and the opposition thus has a majority of Parliament? What's your solution there? How can you govern when the opposition has a majority?
It will be in the interests of the SNP to abstain on English matters too, which is why they do so, because it will cause tension within the UK which is their goal.
The first election which results in a majority of English MPs sitting on the opposition benches will cause a constitutional crisis.
The f**k up was by Labour in 1997 not thinking up a serious solution to English devolution. EVEL is a step in the right direction and means the Tories if they win a majority in England will be able to veto any and every single English only law on devolved matters a Labour led government tries to pass. As they should be able to do so. How have the Tories f**ked up there? I'm sure they'll be distraught to be able to veto every law the government tries to pass.
https://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/british-electoral-history-since-1832/1964-general-election/
The Tories also won the popular vote in England in 2005 too but not a majority of English MPs.
THE EU'S OWN STUDY put the benefits of the single market at 0.5-1.0% of GDP - at most nine months' economic growth.
And we'll save >£200m/week - double that if NI rejoins the Republic.
And pound sterling will probably fall by more than that. So exporters will likely be better off even with tariffs.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7220765/Labour-blame-game-rages-Thornberrys-office-accused-Corbyn-health-claims.html
The other factor is that while UK exporters to the EU will be softened from any tariffs by a devaluation in the pound, the EU exporters to the UK will suffer a double-whammy of a devaluation in the pound combined with potential tariffs.
No such luck - LDs 1.16
I, for one, can't quite see how they can "come through the middle" and win 50pc plus though
A cache of files dated between 2017 (when Boris was Foreign Secretary yes) to just a couple of weeks ago (some after Trump's recent state visit) has been leaked.
To imply Boris or his team is behind this is absurd. Quite clearly the leak is someone who has clearance now, not in the past.
A contrast with the UK, where my vote has never been represented in parliament, despite my best efforts since 1987.
Clear enough?
I'm a Scot so it's not really my sport - but I had my sub so I thought I'd be watching all games. But I've found it relentless and hardly watched any.
Only 3 matches left now though - C'mon England - You can do it!
the question was "over you MEP" not "who's your MEP".
But yeah keep up the EU=democratic line - might work for you next time, although you clever enough to keep this line of argument away the last time
Nobody could have seen it coming, I was certainly as taken in as everyone else, from 4th place to 1st place, there must have just been a surge in Labour support in between the polling days.