Fascinating article. One small observation: B2B journalism that delivers intelligence, data and analysis to a properly defined market can be extraordinarily rewarding and very lucrative. It does not carry the cache that mainstream journalism does, but it offers the prospect of a very decent career, if you choose the right area.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
Even based on 'HYUFD maths', the Tories will lose one voter to the Lib Dems for every two they gain back from Farage. Accommodating Farage shrinks the Tory + Brexit Party pie.
Any Tory deal with farage will see off any remnants of the Ken Clarke wing of the party including significant numbers of MPs
Sadly, no it won't.
I know a few older style tories who voted lib dem in the euros and if they go near farage will not go back.
So let us assume you are right and 5% defect to the Greens, the LDs or the Monster Raving Loony Party. That leaves Johnson-Farage alliance on circa 40% and the next nearest party on circa 20% plus. Under fptp, Nigey and Boris between them clean up.
If the Tories do strike an “alliance” with the far right, it’ll be worse for them than that.
To centre-left Guardian readers, the Brexit Party may appear extreme. To most moderate Tories it is more desirable than a rainbow coaltion headed by Corbyn.
Batten and Yaxley-Lennon's UKIP are a different proposition but they aren't in the equation.
Biden leads Trump by 10% today with registered voters in an ABC poll, Harris leads Trump only by 2%, the same popular vote lead as Hillary had in 2016 when she lost the Electoral College
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
It was the dementia tax disaster. I was canvassing in a marginal seat after that and almost every other house had a furious voter saying May was threatening to take their house away and snatch their next egg for their children and grandchildren.
That followed by May's 'I don't have a magic money tree' gaffe which went down like a lead balloon with any police and nurses I canvassed.
At least Cameron had the sweetener of Osborne's inheritance tax cut plans to sweeten his austerity
And ‘austerity’ was a marketing myth outside the police and local government.
Thank goodness police and local government are unimportant in the grand scheme of things.
They might be less important to the average voter than Morissons now having Barista Bars as well as cafes.
This is a very good point. I started my working life a year before austerity began and if I'd paid not attention to news and current affairs, I'd have no idea whether we were spending more or less now than we were 10 years ago. I have hardly any contact with public services and there's probably a fair few people like me.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
A significant number of Brexit Party voters would not switch to the Tories - just as many 2015 UKIP voters declined to do so.
They don't have to, all they have to do under fptp is reduce the Labour vote by voting Brexit to allow the Tories home. This will happen across the country.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
Even based on 'HYUFD maths', the Tories will lose one voter to the Lib Dems for every two they gain back from Farage. Accommodating Farage shrinks the Tory + Brexit Party pie.
Any Tory deal with farage will see off any remnants of the Ken Clarke wing of the party including significant numbers of MPs
Sadly, no it won't.
I know a few older style tories who voted lib dem in the euros and if they go near farage will not go back.
So let us assume you are right and 5% defect to the Greens, the LDs or the Monster Raving Loony Party. That leaves Johnson-Farage alliance on circa 40% and the next nearest party on circa 20% plus. Under fptp, Nigey and Boris between them clean up.
If the Tories do strike an “alliance” with the far right, it’ll be worse for them than that.
The Brexit party aren't the 'far right'. They disapprove of such things as much as you do - more, perhaps, in that they're being tarnished by that brush.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Your bar is so low that you’d settle for 4+ years of Corbyn, now?
If it leads to a Tory landslide after 4 1/2 years as looks to have happened in Greece tonight with the exit polls suggesting a centre right landslide I expect I could grit my teeth and endure those 4 1/2 years if we have to have a Corbyn government
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
A significant number of Brexit Party voters would not switch to the Tories - just as many 2015 UKIP voters declined to do so.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
A BP / Con de facto merger is certainly a possibility given they are fishing in the same pool these days. But it would mean the effective takeover of the Conservatives by the Farage tendency whose ascendency depends on the reduction of the other party. There are plenty of Conservatives, not least their sitting MPs, who would react negatively to being pushed out the way.
More optimistically for those of another persuasion, a Lib Dem / Green pact should be far less problematic as neither party has a vested position to maintain. They should both do very well if they work together.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
A significant number of Brexit Party voters would not switch to the Tories - just as many 2015 UKIP voters declined to do so.
They don't have to, all they have to do under fptp is reduce the Labour vote by voting Brexit to allow the Tories home. This will happen across the country.
But in seats where the Brexit Party stood aside for the Tories - as UKIP did in 2017 - many of their voters would go back to Labour. Support for the LibDems and Greens is also likely to be soft and in the context of a GE much of it will switch back to Labour.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
A BP / Con de facto merger is certainly a possibility given they are fishing in the same pool these days. But it would mean the effective takeover of the Conservatives by the Farage tendency whose ascendency depends on the reduction of the other party. There are plenty of Conservatives, not least their sitting MPs, who would react negatively to being pushed out the way.
More optimistically for those of another persuasion, a Lib Dem / Green pact should be far less problematic as neither party has a vested position to maintain. They should both do very well if they work together.
Paragraph 1, already happening.
Paragraph 2, unless Labour's vote collapses to virtually nothing that counts for very little.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
A BP / Con de facto merger is certainly a possibility given they are fishing in the same pool these days. But it would mean the effective takeover of the Conservatives by the Farage tendency whose ascendency depends on the reduction of the other party. There are plenty of Conservatives, not least their sitting MPs, who would react negatively to being pushed out the way.
More optimistically for those of another persuasion, a Lib Dem / Green pact should be far less problematic as neither party has a vested position to maintain. They should both do very well if they work together.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
It was the dementia tax disaster. I was canvassing in a marginal seat after that and almost every other house had a furious voter saying May was threatening to take their house away and snatch their next egg for their children and grandchildren.
That followed by May's 'I don't have a magic money tree' gaffe which went down like a lead balloon with any police and nurses I canvassed.
At least Cameron had the sweetener of Osborne's inheritance tax cut plans to sweeten his austerity
And ‘austerity’ was a marketing myth outside the police and local government.
Thank goodness police and local government are unimportant in the grand scheme of things.
They might be less important to the average voter than Morissons now having Barista Bars as well as cafes.
This is a very good point. I started my working life a year before austerity began and if I'd paid not attention to news and current affairs, I'd have no idea whether we were spending more or less now than we were 10 years ago. I have hardly any contact with public services and there's probably a fair few people like me.
Each individual is different and likewise each location and occupation is also different.
There has been no austerity but rather cuts in some areas and profligacy in others.
For all the talk of food banks and zero hours jobs there's a very great number of people who are doing very well and spending accordingly.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
Even based on 'HYUFD maths', the Tories will lose one voter to the Lib Dems for every two they gain back from Farage. Accommodating Farage shrinks the Tory + Brexit Party pie.
Any Tory deal with farage will see off any remnants of the Ken Clarke wing of the party including significant numbers of MPs
Sadly, no it won't.
I know a few older style tories who voted lib dem in the euros and if they go near farage will not go back.
So let us assume you are right and 5% defect to the Greens, the LDs or the Monster Raving Loony Party. That leaves Johnson-Farage alliance on circa 40% and the next nearest party on circa 20% plus. Under fptp, Nigey and Boris between them clean up.
If the Tories do strike an “alliance” with the far right, it’ll be worse for them than that.
The Brexit party aren't the 'far right'. They disapprove of such things as much as you do - more, perhaps, in that they're being tarnished by that brush.
How on earth do you know? They haven’t published any policies. Indeed it seems they only have one.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
Even based on 'HYUFD maths', the Tories will lose one voter to the Lib Dems for every two they gain back from Farage. Accommodating Farage shrinks the Tory + Brexit Party pie.
Any Tory deal with farage will see off any remnants of the Ken Clarke wing of the party including significant numbers of MPs
Sadly, no it won't.
I know a few older style tories who voted lib dem in the euros and if they go near farage will not go back.
So let us assume you are right and 5% defect to the Greens, the LDs or the Monster Raving Loony Party. That leaves Johnson-Farage alliance on circa 40% and the next nearest party on circa 20% plus. Under fptp, Nigey and Boris between them clean up.
If the Tories do strike an “alliance” with the far right, it’ll be worse for them than that.
The Brexit party aren't the 'far right'. They disapprove of such things as much as you do - more, perhaps, in that they're being tarnished by that brush.
How on earth do you know? They haven’t published any policies. Indeed it seems they only have one.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Enfield Southgate voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
A BP / Con de facto merger is certainly a possibility given they are fishing in the same pool these days. But it would mean the effective takeover of the Conservatives by the Farage tendency whose ascendency depends on the reduction of the other party. There are plenty of Conservatives, not least their sitting MPs, who would react negatively to being pushed out the way.
More optimistically for those of another persuasion, a Lib Dem / Green pact should be far less problematic as neither party has a vested position to maintain. They should both do very well if they work together.
Con just absorb Brexit Party if we leave the EU.
Possible, but I am talking about the likelihood of a Con/BP pact. Neither party is likely to stand aside for the other. With LDs and Greens, they don't have to. An LD/Green pact would beat the others on current polling if the Cons and Faragists don't do likewise. Labour is likely to be squeezed either way.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Enfield Southgate voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
Even based on 'HYUFD maths', the Tories will lose one voter to the Lib Dems for every two they gain back from Farage. Accommodating Farage shrinks the Tory + Brexit Party pie.
Any Tory deal with farage will see off any remnants of the Ken Clarke wing of the party including significant numbers of MPs
Sadly, no it won't.
I know a few older style tories who voted lib dem in the euros and if they go near farage will not go back.
So let us assume you are right and 5% defect to the Greens, the LDs or the Monster Raving Loony Party. That leaves Johnson-Farage alliance on circa 40% and the next nearest party on circa 20% plus. Under fptp, Nigey and Boris between them clean up.
If the Tories do strike an “alliance” with the far right, it’ll be worse for them than that.
The Brexit party aren't the 'far right'. They disapprove of such things as much as you do - more, perhaps, in that they're being tarnished by that brush.
How on earth do you know? They haven’t published any policies. Indeed it seems they only have one.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
Even based on 'HYUFD maths', the Tories will lose one voter to the Lib Dems for every two they gain back from Farage. Accommodating Farage shrinks the Tory + Brexit Party pie.
Any Tory deal with farage will see off any remnants of the Ken Clarke wing of the party including significant numbers of MPs
Sadly, no it won't.
I know a few older style tories who voted lib dem in the euros and if they go near farage will not go back.
So let us assume you are right and 5% defect to the Greens, the LDs or the Monster Raving Loony Party. That leaves Johnson-Farage alliance on circa 40% and the next nearest party on circa 20% plus. Under fptp, Nigey and Boris between them clean up.
If the Tories do strike an “alliance” with the far right, it’ll be worse for them than that.
The Brexit party aren't the 'far right'. They disapprove of such things as much as you do - more, perhaps, in that they're being tarnished by that brush.
How on earth do you know? They haven’t published any policies. Indeed it seems they only have one.
So how are they 'far right' then?
It looks pretty clear they are to the right of the Tories.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Enfield Southgate voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Just because an area voted Leave does not mean they are going to vote for an unholy alliance of Tory/Brexit.
There will be no 'unholy alliance' but as Ashcroft's poll today shows a Boris led Tory Party wins a majority of Leave voters while under a Hunt led Tories a plurality of Leave voters would vote Brexit Party
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
Even based on 'HYUFD maths', the Tories will lose one voter to the Lib Dems for every two they gain back from Farage. Accommodating Farage shrinks the Tory + Brexit Party pie.
Any Tory deal with farage will see off any remnants of the Ken Clarke wing of the party including significant numbers of MPs
Sadly, no it won't.
I know a few older style tories who voted lib dem in the euros and if they go near farage will not go back.
So let us assume you are right and 5% defect to the Greens, the LDs or the Monster Raving Loony Party. That leaves Johnson-Farage alliance on circa 40% and the next nearest party on circa 20% plus. Under fptp, Nigey and Boris between them clean up.
If the Tories do strike an “alliance” with the far right, it’ll be worse for them than that.
The Brexit party aren't the 'far right'. They disapprove of such things as much as you do - more, perhaps, in that they're being tarnished by that brush.
How on earth do you know? They haven’t published any policies. Indeed it seems they only have one.
Farage isn't 'far right', and as far as I know there are no 'far right' MEP's in their midst. So, I know because I care to look.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Enfield Southgate voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Just because an area voted Leave does not mean they are going to vote for an unholy alliance of Tory/Brexit.
There will be no 'unholy alliance' but as Ashcroft's poll today shows a Boris led Tory Party wins might win a majority of Leave voters while under a Hunt led Tories a plurality of Leave voters would might vote Brexit Party
FTFY.
The fact is that anyone who really was that interested in a 'hard brexit' would have already voted Tory or UKIP at the last election. Don't try and change history; everyone knew Labour's Brexit was a soft Brexit at the last election. They are not going to vote for No Deal now.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
In Labour Leave seats like Wigan, held by Lisa Nandy, or Doncaster, held by Ed Miliband or Pontefract held by Yvette Cooper that are beyond the top 100 Tory target seats yes, the Brexit Party are more dangerous for Labour than even a Boris led Tory Party
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
May won 42.4% of the vote. Do you really think she could have got much more than that with a better campaign? The hard reality is that despite the missteps, May just about maxed out the potential Tory vote without UKIP or the Brexit Party.
Not entirely true, May was polling up to 47 or 48% before the dementia tax disaster and 'no Magic Money tree' gaffes.
A figure not dissimilar to where the Tory-Brexit Alliance are close to now. This 45% of the electorate are interchangeable between the two parties. The opposition parties are more fragmented now than in 2017 which means if Johnson can accomodate Farage a landslide beckons, and the rest of us who are not of that persuasion are really stuck up a gumtree.
Even based on 'HYUFD maths', the Tories will lose one voter to the Lib Dems for every two they gain back from Farage. Accommodating Farage shrinks the Tory + Brexit Party pie.
Any Tory deal with farage will see off any remnants of the Ken Clarke wing of the party including significant numbers of MPs
Sadly, no it won't.
I know a few older style tories who voted lib dem in the euros and if they go near farage will not go back.
So let us assume you are right and 5% defect to the Greens, the LDs or the Monster Raving Loony Party. That leaves Johnson-Farage alliance on circa 40% and the next nearest party on circa 20% plus. Under fptp, Nigey and Boris between them clean up.
If the Tories do strike an “alliance” with the far right, it’ll be worse for them than that.
The Brexit party aren't the 'far right'. They disapprove of such things as much as you do - more, perhaps, in that they're being tarnished by that brush.
How on earth do you know? They haven’t published any policies. Indeed it seems they only have one.
So how are they 'far right' then?
How far right are Gerald Batten's and Tommy Yaxley Robinson's UKIP?
'On 12 April 2019, Farage said that there was "no difference between the Brexit party and UKIP in terms of policy"
Now, a question. How does this relate to the death of nuance?
First, some background. When I was at Goldman Sachs as a junior analyst in the late 1990s, I was once being very rude about a large European Computer Services company on which my boss was sceptical. (As in, he expected the share price to perform poorly.)
My boss said to me: Robert, like any large organisation, company x has good bits and bad bits. Its management make some good decisions and some bad ones. It's a mistake to think that - just because we're sceptical about the direction of travel of the organisation as a whole - everything about it is terrible.
That was probably one of the very best pieces of advice I've recived in my whole life. Simply, be nuanced.
And so I remember that, although I'm not generally a big fan of Trump, I need to look at each of his decisions in isolation. So, I heartily support his removal of the tax breaks on carried interest. I admire the steps his administration has taken to simplfy the US tax system, and to try and lower the price paid by Americans for pharmaceutical products. And I could go on. Simply, I'm remembering that not every thing he does is going to be bad or evil or wrong, and that he (like everyone else) will be a mix of right, wrong, competent, and incompetent.
Sadly, there seem to be very few commentators - either in our politics or on this board - who seem to apply the same principle to the EU. Either everything about the EU is amazing. Or it's all terrible.
This is most tortuous when it comes to the issue of free trade. The EU has weak domestic demand. Its citizens spend too little and save too much. There are two policy responses to insufficient aggregate demand. You can either stimulate domestic or external demand. The EU has few levers to stimulate domestic demand (and they also clash with the requirements to avoid running up further imbalances inside the Eurozone).
There remains therefore one option: increasing external demand. Free trade agreements will - ceteris paribus - boost external demand. Therefore the EU is instutionally rather in favour of them. This isn't because the EU is good or evil or anything else. It is because it is clearly in their aggregate interests to support them.
We need to see a bit more nuance on here.
If you can't recognise a dozen things that are good about your political opponents, then you have become blinkered.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Enfield Southgate voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Just because an area voted Leave does not mean they are going to vote for an unholy alliance of Tory/Brexit.
There will be no 'unholy alliance' but as Ashcroft's poll today shows a Boris led Tory Party wins might win a majority of Leave voters while under a Hunt led Tories a plurality of Leave voters would might vote Brexit Party
FTFY.
The fact is that anyone who really was that interested in a 'hard brexit' would have already voted Tory or UKIP at the last election. Don't try and change history; everyone knew Labour's Brexit was a soft Brexit at the last election. They are not going to vote for No Deal now.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
In Labour Leave seats like Wigan, held by Lisa Nandy, or Doncaster, held by Ed Miliband or Pontefract held by Yvette Cooper that are beyond the top 100 Tory target seats yes, the Brexit Party are more dangerous for Labour than even a Boris led Tory Party
This is where Labour are vulnerable from the right. They are also vulnerable from LDs splitting the vote in Tory marginals, they are your magic bullet here not Johnson. Without the LDs or Brexit I can't see Johnson doing much damage to Labour on his own. Yes he will be the net gainer but through no personal effort.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Enfield Southgate voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Just because an area voted Leave does not mean they are going to vote for an unholy alliance of Tory/Brexit.
There will be no 'unholy alliance' but as Ashcroft's poll today shows a Boris led Tory Party wins might win a majority of Leave voters while under a Hunt led Tories a plurality of Leave voters would might vote Brexit Party
FTFY.
The fact is that anyone who really was that interested in a 'hard brexit' would have already voted Tory or UKIP at the last election. Don't try and change history; everyone knew Labour's Brexit was a soft Brexit at the last election. They are not going to vote for No Deal now.
Fascinating article. One small observation: B2B journalism that delivers intelligence, data and analysis to a properly defined market can be extraordinarily rewarding and very lucrative. It does not carry the cache that mainstream journalism does, but it offers the prospect of a very decent career, if you choose the right area.
Yes. However there are an awful lot of those types of information providers which are primarily press-release churners with articles of blinding obvious quality written by market professionals for free (or at least not for the value of their time) on the basis of PR. Those articles are frequently absurdly anodyne to avoid offending any clients or potential clients.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Now, a question. How does this relate to the death of nuance?
First, some background. When I was at Goldman Sachs as a junior analyst in the late 1990s, I was once being very rude about a large European Computer Services company on which my boss was sceptical. (As in, he expected the share price to perform poorly.)
That was probably one of the very best pieces of advice I've recived in my whole life. Simply, be nuanced.
And so I remember that, although I'm not generally a big fan of Trump, I need to look at each of his decisions in isolation. So, I heartily support his removal of the tax breaks on carried interest. I admire the steps his administration has taken to simplfy the US tax system, and to try and lower the price paid by Americans for pharmaceutical products. And I could go on. Simply, I'm remembering that not every thing he does is going to be bad or evil or wrong, and that he (like everyone else) will be a mix of right, wrong, competent, and incompetent.
Sadly, there seem to be very few commentators - either in our politics or on this board - who seem to apply the same principle to the EU. Either everything about the EU is amazing. Or it's all terrible.
This is most tortuous when it comes to the issue of free trade. The EU has weak domestic demand. Its citizens spend too little and save too much. There are two policy responses to insufficient aggregate demand. You can either stimulate domestic or external demand. The EU has few levers to stimulate domestic demand (and they also clash with the requirements to avoid running up further imbalances inside the Eurozone).
There remains therefore one option: increasing external demand. Free trade agreements will - ceteris paribus - boost external demand. Therefore the EU is instutionally rather in favour of them. This isn't because the EU is good or evil or anything else. It is because it is clearly in their aggregate interests to support them.
We need to see a bit more nuance on here.
If you can't recognise a dozen things that are good about your political opponents, then you have become blinkered.
If you find a dozen things that you admire in your political opponent then you've lost - two or three things perhaps.
It's hard to find one for me in today's Labour party.
I do quite like the idea of a universal income. Simple - less government.
I think Long-Bailey might rise from the ashes. I thought she was totally laughable when she first arrived, but she's improving and doing so rapidly. I'm not sure she'll finish up being the red-knickered socialist she started out being though.
I absolutely love the otherwise minimal standards of Labour, but that's opposed to the proposition.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Wales though voted for Brexit
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but there are four nations in the UK. The end of the Union is not contingent on an independent Wales.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
In Labour Leave seats like Wigan, held by Lisa Nandy, or Doncaster, held by Ed Miliband or Pontefract held by Yvette Cooper that are beyond the top 100 Tory target seats yes, the Brexit Party are more dangerous for Labour than even a Boris led Tory Party
This is where Labour are vulnerable from the right. They are also vulnerable from LDs splitting the vote in Tory marginals, they are your magic bullet here not Johnson. Without the LDs or Brexit I can't see Johnson doing much damage to Labour on his own. Yes he will be the net gainer but through no personal effort.
Boris just needs to hold a majority of the 2017 Tory vote, add a few Labour Leavers and let the LDs with Labour Remainers and the Brexit Party in heartland Labour Leave seats do the rest
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
In Labour Leave seats like Wigan, held by Lisa Nandy, or Doncaster, held by Ed Miliband or Pontefract held by Yvette Cooper that are beyond the top 100 Tory target seats yes, the Brexit Party are more dangerous for Labour than even a Boris led Tory Party
This is where Labour are vulnerable from the right. They are also vulnerable from LDs splitting the vote in Tory marginals, they are your magic bullet here not Johnson. Without the LDs or Brexit I can't see Johnson doing much damage to Labour on his own. Yes he will be the net gainer but through no personal effort.
Boris just needs to hold a majority of the 2017 Tory vote, add a few Labour Leavers and let the LDs with Labour Remainers and the Brexit Party in heartland Labour Leave seats do the rest
Indeed he does! In fact he doesn't even need to keep all the 2017 voters.
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
It was the dementia tax disaster. I was canvassing in a marginal seat after that and almost every other house had a furious voter saying May was threatening to take their house away and snatch their next egg for their children and grandchildren.
That followed by May's 'I don't have a magic money tree' gaffe which went down like a lead balloon with any police and nurses I canvassed.
At least Cameron had the sweetener of Osborne's inheritance tax cut plans to sweeten his austerity
And ‘austerity’ was a marketing myth outside the police and local government.
Someone posted research showing the areas hardest hit by austerity went on to vote Leave. Another shot in the foot from master strategist George Osborne.
Can you prove causation?
IIRC (memory of IFS stats) the top decline was badly hit, the second decile moderately badly hit, 3-9 about even, decile 10 slightly hit.
Other way round. Top decile slightly hit, 6-9 basically not affected, 1-5 hit in increasing severity as they become poorer. Pensioners protected, working age with children hit hardest.
The long-run impact was actually slightly positive for the richest, and significantly negative for the poorest (up to 12% loss of income).
Socialists never are. The one thing they weren't is charlatans. They did everything a socialist can including screwing up the economy and running out of other peoples money to spend as far as socialism goes they nailed it.
You realise that it would be just as easy to write two crass sentences about the tories screwing up the country. But I won't I think this forum is better than that.
Of course it would be easy but then you'd be writing fiction whereas what I wrote was non-fiction.
The facts speak for themselves. The Tories in 79 inherited a shambolic mess after the Winter of Discontent and in 97 bequeathed New Labour a golden legacy. Labour ran up the credit card, ran out of money and left office with a note saying "there is no more money" and a deficit of over 10% of GDP. The Tories now have nearly eliminated the deficit they inherited.
Every single Labour government has ran out of money. It is what they do.
What about Atlee 1945-1952? Didn't they implement genuine austerity, reduce the deficit, and dramatically lower government debt-to-GDP?
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Wales though voted for Brexit
Opinions change, I understand.
Think a poll had Wales down as 55% remain the other day, although just a poll. I imagine many Welsh leavers aren't really Boris fans.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Wales though voted for Brexit
Recent opinion polls?
The Brexit Party won Wales in the European Parliament elections as it did in England
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
In Labour Leave seats like Wigan, held by Lisa Nandy, or Doncaster, held by Ed Miliband or Pontefract held by Yvette Cooper that are beyond the top 100 Tory target seats yes, the Brexit Party are more dangerous for Labour than even a Boris led Tory Party
This is where Labour are vulnerable from the right. They are also vulnerable from LDs splitting the vote in Tory marginals, they are your magic bullet here not Johnson. Without the LDs or Brexit I can't see Johnson doing much damage to Labour on his own. Yes he will be the net gainer but through no personal effort.
I think the Lib Dems have a real chance of displacing Labour as the main opposition. It's possible Labour will realise the danger it's in quickly enough that it gets rid of Corbyn before the next election. In that case Johnson is quite likely to win comfortably by splitting the opposition. But if the new Labour leader is able to establish themselves as the most plausible alternative to the Brexiteers, in which case Labour will probably win.
Or double bluff. Pretend to be worried about Biden so that the Dems pick him and pass over the one he is really worried about - Harris.
Massive IQ after all, Donald Trump. Perhaps the smartest guy ever to be president. In fact strike those last three words. They are not needed.
I suspect that Trump is genuinely more worried about Biden than Harris, because Harris is a woman and black, and so Trump would expect to automatically win the votes of the 20-30% of the American electorate that is misogynist and racist.
@rcs1000 . Your cry for nuance, for shades of grey is good one. Many professionals work in shades of grey. Social media (of which this can be considered a part) has destroyed that. Outrage grabs attention and outrage is a simple, easy emotion. The genie of out of the bottle. I’ve said before that I think social media will kill western liberal democracy and I’ve seen little to make me review that opinion in any meaningful way.
Biden leads Trump by 10% today with registered voters in an ABC poll, Harris leads Trump only by 2%, the same popular vote lead as Hillary had in 2016 when she lost the Electoral College
Socialists never are. The one thing they weren't is charlatans. They did everything a socialist can including screwing up the economy and running out of other peoples money to spend as far as socialism goes they nailed it.
You realise that it would be just as easy to write two crass sentences about the tories screwing up the country. But I won't I think this forum is better than that.
Of course it would be easy but then you'd be writing fiction whereas what I wrote was non-fiction.
The facts speak for themselves. The Tories in 79 inherited a shambolic mess after the Winter of Discontent and in 97 bequeathed New Labour a golden legacy. Labour ran up the credit card, ran out of money and left office with a note saying "there is no more money" and a deficit of over 10% of GDP. The Tories now have nearly eliminated the deficit they inherited.
Every single Labour government has ran out of money. It is what they do.
What about Atlee 1945-1952? Didn't they implement genuine austerity, reduce the deficit, and dramatically lower government debt-to-GDP?
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Ey Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
In Labour Leave seats like Wigan, held by Lisa Nandy, or Doncaster, held by Ed Miliband or Pontefract held by Yvette Cooper that are beyond the top 100 Tory target seats yes, the Brexit Party are more dangerous for Labour than even a Boris led Tory Party
This is where Labour are vulnerable from the right. They are also vulnerable from LDs splitting the vote in Tory marginals, they are your magic bullet here not Johnson. Without the LDs or Brexit I can't see Johnson doing much damage to Labour on his own. Yes he will be the net gainer but through no personal effort.
I think the Lib Dems have a real chance of displacing Labour as the main opposition. It's possible Labour will realise the danger it's in quickly enough that it gets rid of Corbyn before the next election. In that case Johnson is quite likely to win comfortably by splitting the opposition. But if the new Labour leader is able to establish themselves as the most plausible alternative to the Brexiteers, in which case Labour will probably win.
Politics is very fluid right now.
Labour aren't going to be changing leader before the next election, or it is very unlikely anyway.
Also polls don't really look good for the Lib Dems replacing Labour as much as some may wish it.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Wales though voted for Brexit
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but there are four nations in the UK. The end of the Union is not contingent on an independent Wales.
As John Curtice has shown while 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back Yes to independence, 64% of Scottish Leave voters still back No so by no means does Brexit guarantee a Yes vote in any indyref2, at most it would be around 50 50
Mr. HYUFD, it wasn't economics that caused May's 2017 electoral disaster (indeed, she shelved Hammond utterly and refused to campaign on the Conservatives' then strong point). It was the delinquent approach to dementia care, a failure to appear at the debates, and complacency.
It was the dementia tax disaster. I was canvassing in a marginal seat after that and almost every other house had a furious voter saying May was threatening to take their house away and snatch their next egg for their children and grandchildren.
That followed by May's 'I don't have a magic money tree' gaffe which went down like a lead balloon with any police and nurses I canvassed.
At least Cameron had the sweetener of Osborne's inheritance tax cut plans to sweeten his austerity
And ‘austerity’ was a marketing myth outside the police and local government.
Someone posted research showing the areas hardest hit by austerity went on to vote Leave. Another shot in the foot from master strategist George Osborne.
Can you prove causation?
Of course not. Who can? But it is certainly plausible that globalisation's losers who had their safety net pulled out from under them would have been more susceptible to the Brexit message, and the correlation has been demonstrated. Note also this was predicted by Vote Leave's official brainbox, Dominic Cummings, and to an extent by Nigel Farage.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Enfield Southgate voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Just because an area voted Leave does not mean they are going to vote for an unholy alliance of Tory/Brexit.
There will be no 'unholy alliance' but as Ashcroft's poll today shows a Boris led Tory Party wins might win a majority of Leave voters while under a Hunt led Tories a plurality of Leave voters would might vote Brexit Party
FTFY.
The fact is that anyone who really was that interested in a 'hard brexit' would have already voted Tory or UKIP at the last election. Don't try and change history; everyone knew Labour's Brexit was a soft Brexit at the last election. They are not going to vote for No Deal now.
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
In Labour Leave seats like Wigan, held by Lisa Nandy, or Doncaster, held by Ed Miliband or Pontefract held by Yvette Cooper that are beyond the top 100 Tory target seats yes, the Brexit Party are more dangerous for Labour than even a Boris led Tory Party
This is where Labour are vulnerable from the right. They are also vulnerable from LDs splitting the vote in Tory marginals, they are your magic bullet here not Johnson. Without the LDs or Brexit I can't see Johnson doing much damage to Labour on his own. Yes he will be the net gainer but through no personal effort.
Boris just needs to hold a majority of the 2017 Tory vote, add a few Labour Leavers and let the LDs with Labour Remainers and the Brexit Party in heartland Labour Leave seats do the rest
And just pretend the massive losses to the LibDems in the Home Counties and the SW won’t happen?
Fascinating article. One small observation: B2B journalism that delivers intelligence, data and analysis to a properly defined market can be extraordinarily rewarding and very lucrative. It does not carry the cache that mainstream journalism does, but it offers the prospect of a very decent career, if you choose the right area.
Yes. However there are an awful lot of those types of information providers which are primarily press-release churners with articles of blinding obvious quality written by market professionals for free (or at least not for the value of their time) on the basis of PR. Those articles are frequently absurdly anodyne to avoid offending any clients or potential clients.
Yep, they are. But you can charge very high subs prices - and get the sponsor/ad revenues, too - if you choose the right market and invest in quality info provision.
@rcs1000 . Your cry for nuance, for shades of grey is good one. Many professionals work in shades of grey. Social media (of which this can be considered a part) has destroyed that. Outrage grabs attention and outrage is a simple, easy emotion. The genie of out of the bottle. I’ve said before that I think social media will kill western liberal democracy and I’ve seen little to make me review that opinion in any meaningful way.
We had Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Stalin well before social media and liberals like Macron and Obama have used social media to help them win.
I don't think social media leads inevitably to authoritarianism
No, she's an African American Hillary with the same level of condescencion if at least not John Kerry in a skirt as Warren is
Nothing like HRC. Does not have the Clinton baggage and is considerably more charismatic.
If anything she is an African American Warren. So a black John Kerry in a skirt (if we must).
Does the deeply sub-optimal Donald Trump stand a chance of beating a black John Kerry in a skirt? No. Won't even be close.
Even without the skirt he will struggle.
If Harris can keep Hillary’s vote and get more African Americans to turn out in swing states, she wins.
At most she could scrape home and that depends on her not losing even more white working class voters to Trump in the swing states than Hillary did offsetting any gains with African Americans.
Biden by contrast leads Trump by 10% in the popular vote with ABC today compared to just 2% for Harris
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
In Labour Leave seats like Wigan, held by Lisa Nandy, or Doncaster, held by Ed Miliband or Pontefract held by Yvette Cooper that are beyond the top 100 Tory target seats yes, the Brexit Party are more dangerous for Labour than even a Boris led Tory Party
This is where Labour are vulnerable from the right. They are also vulnerable from LDs splitting the vote in Tory marginals, they are your magic bullet here not Johnson. Without the LDs or Brexit I can't see Johnson doing much damage to Labour on his own. Yes he will be the net gainer but through no personal effort.
Boris just needs to hold a majority of the 2017 Tory vote, add a few Labour Leavers and let the LDs with Labour Remainers and the Brexit Party in heartland Labour Leave seats do the rest
And just pretend the massive losses to the LibDems in the Home Counties and the SW won’t happen?
Even on a 10% swing from the Tories to LDs the Tories only lose 13 seats to the LDs, on a 5% swing from Labour to the Tories the Tories pick up 50 seats from Labour
And just pretend the massive losses to the LibDems in the Home Counties and the SW won’t happen?
He make's a Tory victory at the next general election sound easy peasy lemon squeezy, then you see the polls and the Tories can't even get 1 in 4 votes.
@rcs1000 . Your cry for nuance, for shades of grey is good one. Many professionals work in shades of grey. Social media (of which this can be considered a part) has destroyed that. Outrage grabs attention and outrage is a simple, easy emotion. The genie of out of the bottle. I’ve said before that I think social media will kill western liberal democracy and I’ve seen little to make me review that opinion in any meaningful way.
We had Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Stalin well before social media and liberals like Macron and Obama have used social media to help them win.
I don't think social media leads inevitably to authoritarianism
Where did I say authoritarianism? I think of governments which do not do nuance, do not do shades of grey, which cater to the lowest common denominator and are indifferent to active harm. As we have the risk of in the UK with both Corbyn and Johnson.
And just pretend the massive losses to the LibDems in the Home Counties and the SW won’t happen?
Even on a 10% swing from the Tories to LDs the Tories only lose 13 seats to the LDs, on a 5% swing from Labour to the Tories the Tories pick up 50 seats from Labour
And just pretend the massive losses to the LibDems in the Home Counties and the SW won’t happen?
He make's a Tory victory at the next general election sound easy peasy lemon squeezy, then you see the polls and the Tories can't even get 1 in 4 votes.
The Tories could win a majority of over 100 on barely more than 1 in 3 votes if Labour and the LDs both stay in the early 20% range
"Also polls don't really look good for the Lib Dems replacing Labour as much as some may wish it"
Labour is being propped up by the FPTP electoral system, if we had PR they would probably be running a poor 4th. The Lib Dems might not replace them but tif they win enough votes they will push Labour back towards the centre if/when Corbyn loses his second GE.
No, she's an African American Hillary with the same level of condescencion if at least not John Kerry in a skirt as Warren is
Nothing like HRC. Does not have the Clinton baggage and is considerably more charismatic.
If anything she is an African American Warren. So a black John Kerry in a skirt (if we must).
Does the deeply sub-optimal Donald Trump stand a chance of beating a black John Kerry in a skirt? No. Won't even be close.
Even without the skirt he will struggle.
If Harris can keep Hillary’s vote and get more African Americans to turn out in swing states, she wins.
At most she could scrape home and that depends on her not losing even more white working class voters to Trump in the swing states than Hillary did offsetting any gains with African Americans.
Biden by contrast leads Trump by 10% in the popular vote with ABC today compared to just 2% for Harris
And just pretend the massive losses to the LibDems in the Home Counties and the SW won’t happen?
Even on a 10% swing from the Tories to LDs the Tories only lose 13 seats to the LDs, on a 5% swing from Labour to the Tories the Tories pick up 50 seats from Labour
@rcs1000 . Your cry for nuance, for shades of grey is good one. Many professionals work in shades of grey. Social media (of which this can be considered a part) has destroyed that. Outrage grabs attention and outrage is a simple, easy emotion. The genie of out of the bottle. I’ve said before that I think social media will kill western liberal democracy and I’ve seen little to make me review that opinion in any meaningful way.
We had Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Stalin well before social media and liberals like Macron and Obama have used social media to help them win.
I don't think social media leads inevitably to authoritarianism
Where did I say authoritarianism? I think of governments which do not do nuance, do not do shades of grey, which cater to the lowest common denominator and are indifferent to active harm. As we have the risk of in the UK with both Corbyn and Johnson.
Just because a PM is not a liberal Remainer that does not mean the 'end of western liberal democracy'
No, she's an African American Hillary with the same level of condescencion if at least not John Kerry in a skirt as Warren is
Nothing like HRC. Does not have the Clinton baggage and is considerably more charismatic.
If anything she is an African American Warren. So a black John Kerry in a skirt (if we must).
Does the deeply sub-optimal Donald Trump stand a chance of beating a black John Kerry in a skirt? No. Won't even be close.
Even without the skirt he will struggle.
If Harris can keep Hillary’s vote and get more African Americans to turn out in swing states, she wins.
At most she could scrape home and that depends on her not losing even more white working class voters to Trump in the swing states than Hillary did offsetting any gains with African Americans.
Biden by contrast leads Trump by 10% in the popular vote with ABC today compared to just 2% for Harris
The national polls are pretty irrelevant, though.
Even the state polls show Biden doing far better v Trump than any other Democrat in the swing states
And just pretend the massive losses to the LibDems in the Home Counties and the SW won’t happen?
Even on a 10% swing from the Tories to LDs the Tories only lose 13 seats to the LDs, on a 5% swing from Labour to the Tories the Tories pick up 50 seats from Labour
And just pretend the massive losses to the LibDems in the Home Counties and the SW won’t happen?
Even on a 10% swing from the Tories to LDs the Tories only lose 13 seats to the LDs, on a 5% swing from Labour to the Tories the Tories pick up 50 seats from Labour
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Wales though voted for Brexit
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but there are four nations in the UK. The end of the Union is not contingent on an independent Wales.
As John Curtice has shown while 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back Yes to independence, 64% of Scottish Leave voters still back No so by no means does Brexit guarantee a Yes vote in any indyref2, at most it would be around 50 50
"Also polls don't really look good for the Lib Dems replacing Labour as much as some may wish it"
Labour is being propped up by the FPTP electoral system, if we had PR they would probably be running a poor 4th. The Lib Dems might not replace them but tif they win enough votes they will push Labour back towards the centre if/when Corbyn loses his second GE.
Who do I report offences against Blockqoutes too?
Labour members probably won't elect a centrist if we lose the next election.
No, she's an African American Hillary with the same level of condescencion if at least not John Kerry in a skirt as Warren is
Nothing like HRC. Does not have the Clinton baggage and is considerably more charismatic.
If anything she is an African American Warren. So a black John Kerry in a skirt (if we must).
Does the deeply sub-optimal Donald Trump stand a chance of beating a black John Kerry in a skirt? No. Won't even be close.
Even without the skirt he will struggle.
If Harris can keep Hillary’s vote and get more African Americans to turn out in swing states, she wins.
At most she could scrape home and that depends on her not losing even more white working class voters to Trump in the swing states than Hillary did offsetting any gains with African Americans.
Biden by contrast leads Trump by 10% in the popular vote with ABC today compared to just 2% for Harris
The election is next year. You’re preoccupied with the rear view mirror again.
I know nothing about the candidates. But Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Joe Biden are the only ones I've heard with a non-ridiculous sounding names. That counts for a lot. And if Elizabeth Warren thinks she's the reincarnation of Sitting Bull, that leaves two.
@rcs1000 . Your cry for nuance, for shades of grey is good one. Many professionals work in shades of grey. Social media (of which this can be considered a part) has destroyed that. Outrage grabs attention and outrage is a simple, easy emotion. The genie of out of the bottle. I’ve said before that I think social media will kill western liberal democracy and I’ve seen little to make me review that opinion in any meaningful way.
We had Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Stalin well before social media and liberals like Macron and Obama have used social media to help them win.
I don't think social media leads inevitably to authoritarianism
Clear win for the centre right New Democracy party then and defeat for the populist left Syriza government after just 4 1/2 years in power.
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Are you going to tell me which Labour seats your mythical Boris led Tory/Brexit alliance are going to win or not?
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 Tory target seats just 5, Kensington, Stroud, Warwick and Leamington, Battersea and Warrington South voted Remain. Labour Leave seats like Canterbury, Bishop Auckland, Lincoln, Barrow and Furness, Vale of Clwyd, Stoke North, Darlington, Crewe and Nantwich, Gower etc would all be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
Labour are more vulnerable to a Tory-Brexit arrangement than they are to a Boris led Tory Party. Your Labour voting Andy Capp type might be tempted by a straight talking leaver like Nige, he will not be inclined towards a posh-toff who uses language he cannot understand. Johnson knows this.
The Union would not survive a Tory-Brexit government. Bye bye UK.
We have been told on many occassions by Conservatives that Brexit in October trumps the Union, unless Johnson is infront of an audience of Tories in NI, Scotland or Wales, when he says it doesn't.
Wales though voted for Brexit
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but there are four nations in the UK. The end of the Union is not contingent on an independent Wales.
As John Curtice has shown while 51% of Scottish Remain voters now back Yes to independence, 64% of Scottish Leave voters still back No so by no means does Brexit guarantee a Yes vote in any indyref2, at most it would be around 50 50
@rcs1000 . Your cry for nuance, for shades of grey is good one. Many professionals work in shades of grey. Social media (of which this can be considered a part) has destroyed that. Outrage grabs attention and outrage is a simple, easy emotion. The genie of out of the bottle. I’ve said before that I think social media will kill western liberal democracy and I’ve seen little to make me review that opinion in any meaningful way.
We had Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Stalin well before social media and liberals like Macron and Obama have used social media to help them win.
I don't think social media leads inevitably to authoritarianism
Where did I say authoritarianism? I think of governments which do not do nuance, do not do shades of grey, which cater to the lowest common denominator and are indifferent to active harm. As we have the risk of in the UK with both Corbyn and Johnson.
Just because a PM is not a liberal Remainer that does not mean the 'end of western liberal democracy'
@rcs1000 . Your cry for nuance, for shades of grey is good one. Many professionals work in shades of grey. Social media (of which this can be considered a part) has destroyed that. Outrage grabs attention and outrage is a simple, easy emotion. The genie of out of the bottle. I’ve said before that I think social media will kill western liberal democracy and I’ve seen little to make me review that opinion in any meaningful way.
We had Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and Stalin well before social media and liberals like Macron and Obama have used social media to help them win.
I don't think social media leads inevitably to authoritarianism
Wow, I'm agreeing with HYUFD!
Credit where credit is due. HYUFD makes a good point.
Comments
Batten and Yaxley-Lennon's UKIP are a different proposition but they aren't in the equation.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1147902924925886464
An omen for any future Corbyn Government perhaps that it would not be in for too long
Which seats? Let us start with almost all remaining West Midlands seats.
More optimistically for those of another persuasion, a Lib Dem / Green pact should be far less problematic as neither party has a vested position to maintain. They should both do very well if they work together.
Of Labour held seats in the top 50 to 100 Tory target seats again only 5, Chester, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central and Eltham voted Remain. Labour Leave seats from Bolsover to Dagenham and Rainham, Gedling, Scunthorpe and Delyn would again be vulnerable to a Boris led Tory Party
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
Paragraph 2, unless Labour's vote collapses to virtually nothing that counts for very little.
There has been no austerity but rather cuts in some areas and profligacy in others.
For all the talk of food banks and zero hours jobs there's a very great number of people who are doing very well and spending accordingly.
The fact is that anyone who really was that interested in a 'hard brexit' would have already voted Tory or UKIP at the last election. Don't try and change history; everyone knew Labour's Brexit was a soft Brexit at the last election. They are not going to vote for No Deal now.
Affect a massive and irreversible shift in the balance of wealth and power and opportunity in favour of working people springs to mind.
'On 12 April 2019, Farage said that there was "no difference between the Brexit party and UKIP in terms of policy"
Now, a question. How does this relate to the death of nuance?
First, some background. When I was at Goldman Sachs as a junior analyst in the late 1990s, I was once being very rude about a large European Computer Services company on which my boss was sceptical. (As in, he expected the share price to perform poorly.)
My boss said to me: Robert, like any large organisation, company x has good bits and bad bits. Its management make some good decisions and some bad ones. It's a mistake to think that - just because we're sceptical about the direction of travel of the organisation as a whole - everything about it is terrible.
That was probably one of the very best pieces of advice I've recived in my whole life. Simply, be nuanced.
And so I remember that, although I'm not generally a big fan of Trump, I need to look at each of his decisions in isolation. So, I heartily support his removal of the tax breaks on carried interest. I admire the steps his administration has taken to simplfy the US tax system, and to try and lower the price paid by Americans for pharmaceutical products. And I could go on. Simply, I'm remembering that not every thing he does is going to be bad or evil or wrong, and that he (like everyone else) will be a mix of right, wrong, competent, and incompetent.
Sadly, there seem to be very few commentators - either in our politics or on this board - who seem to apply the same principle to the EU. Either everything about the EU is amazing. Or it's all terrible.
This is most tortuous when it comes to the issue of free trade. The EU has weak domestic demand. Its citizens spend too little and save too much. There are two policy responses to insufficient aggregate demand. You can either stimulate domestic or external demand. The EU has few levers to stimulate domestic demand (and they also clash with the requirements to avoid running up further imbalances inside the Eurozone).
There remains therefore one option: increasing external demand. Free trade agreements will - ceteris paribus - boost external demand. Therefore the EU is instutionally rather in favour of them. This isn't because the EU is good or evil or anything else. It is because it is clearly in their aggregate interests to support them.
We need to see a bit more nuance on here.
If you can't recognise a dozen things that are good about your political opponents, then you have become blinkered.
Surreal.
Even Attlee from 1945 to 1951 or Wilson from 1964 to 1970 only managed 6 years.
It took the centrist Blair from 1997 to 2007 to get Labour a decade or more in power
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election
It's hard to find one for me in today's Labour party.
I do quite like the idea of a universal income. Simple - less government.
I think Long-Bailey might rise from the ashes. I thought she was totally laughable when she first arrived, but she's improving and doing so rapidly. I'm not sure she'll finish up being the red-knickered socialist she started out being though.
I absolutely love the otherwise minimal standards of Labour, but that's opposed to the proposition.
If anything she is an African American Warren. So a black John Kerry in a skirt (if we must).
Does the deeply sub-optimal Donald Trump stand a chance of beating a black John Kerry in a skirt? No. Won't even be close.
Even without the skirt he will struggle.
The long-run impact was actually slightly positive for the richest, and significantly negative for the poorest (up to 12% loss of income).
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8210
Trump of course does better in the popular vote v Warren than he did v Hillary.
So yes it is Biden or bust for the Democrats, otherwise Trump will waltz to re election once his ruthless campaign gets under way
Politics is very fluid right now.
Perhaps with less justification.
Also polls don't really look good for the Lib Dems replacing Labour as much as some may wish it.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2019/07/could-brexit-yet-undermine-the-future-of-the-british-state/
Fact.
They could simply have not liked Ed Miliband and voted UKIP as an alternative.
You seem to think voters are rational beings.
I don't think social media leads inevitably to authoritarianism
Biden by contrast leads Trump by 10% in the popular vote with ABC today compared to just 2% for Harris
Jezziah said
"Also polls don't really look good for the Lib Dems replacing Labour as much as some may wish it"
Labour is being propped up by the FPTP electoral system, if we had PR they would probably be running a poor 4th. The Lib Dems might not replace them but tif they win enough votes they will push Labour back towards the centre if/when Corbyn loses his second GE.
You know he wanted you to say that.
Labour members probably won't elect a centrist if we lose the next election.
You’re preoccupied with the rear view mirror again.
Kamala will be high-minded on the whole but she will talk trash when she needs to in order to communicate with the deplorables.
Trump has been sussed out now. He's the Leicester City of American politics. That one dimensional long ball game of his can only fluke a win once.