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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris

 

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  • TomsToms Posts: 1,770
    edited July 9
    I don't think we've necessarily reached the stage of "go home to your constituencies and prepare for government", but good for LDs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,305
    Corbyn's EUref2 commitment today though should win back some LD voters giving the Tories the lead again and re splitting the Remain vote but not enough to win as he still commits to campaign for a Labour Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,305
    edited July 9
    Of course Brexit cannot be delivered without a Tory majority anyway as the current Commons will vote against the Withdrawal Agreement again and for extension or revoke over No Deal
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    HYUFD said:
    How on Earth do UKIP "be brought into disrepute"?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,220
    The polling question in scenario two doesn't indicate what kind of Brexit is envisaged. That would make a lot of difference.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,597
    Labour on 20% after a decade in opposition.

    LOL.

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,060
    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's EUref2 commitment today though should win back some LD voters giving the Tories the lead again and re splitting the Remain vote but not enough to win as he still commits to campaign for a Labour Brexit

    How many people do you think will trust him, Mr HY? I would have thought most people would not.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,730
    I think Donald might be a bit upset... ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409
    FPT:
    Dura_Ace said:

    glw said:

    FF43 said:


    The highly spun article in the Sun yesterday suggests Jeremy Hunt has a good idea who was responsible for the leak and is VERY keen that attention is diverted to the Russians


    Surely it suggests Hunt was just answering a silly question about whether the Russians leaked it: Of course it would be massively concerning if it was the act of a foreign, hostile state. I’ve seen no evidence that that’s the case.

    The idea (or misdirection) it was a foreign state comes from a different, unnamed "senior government figure" elsewhere in the article.
    One reason to think it wasn't the Russians, is that the emails weren't dumped on the internet, they were passed to Oakeshott but someone who was presumably checked out by her editors. They would have to be extraordinarily dozy to publish them without being highly confident of their origin.
    The Russian business is absolute balls. Hunt thinks the rest of us are as fucking thick as the tory membership.
    Read what Hunt said.

    He was answering a hypothetical - its someone else trying to spin "Russians"
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,171
    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,305
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn's EUref2 commitment today though should win back some LD voters giving the Tories the lead again and re splitting the Remain vote but not enough to win as he still commits to campaign for a Labour Brexit

    How many people do you think will trust him, Mr HY? I would have thought most people would not.
    Not enough true but he wins back enough Remainers to stop the LDs tieing the Tories for first.

    The key at the next general election is if Boris' Brexit Deal or No Deal commitment wins back enough Brexit Party voters behind the Tories to win without enough Remainers uniting behind Labour or the LDs under FPTP for them to win
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 362
    OT: Cricket News: It's about to rain in Manchester, grrrrrrrr

    https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,329
    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,597
    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    We will never know - NZ heading for 210.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409
    GIN1138 said:

    I think Donald might be a bit upset... ;)

    Anyone might think he was radiating insecurity.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,786
    I just stuck a cheeky fiver on Davey. Thoroughly decent-seeming bloke. Would appeal to a sensible Conservative type such as myself as leader of the LDs. And who knows what else in the fullness of time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,730

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    There's 20% with the Brexit Party that Boris will be interested in securing. ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293

    The polling question in scenario two doesn't indicate what kind of Brexit is envisaged. That would make a lot of difference.

    Indeed. No deal or WDA? Chaos, or little noticeable change? That is 4 combinations of possible scenarios already.
    Making any such polling as good as worthless.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,158
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:
    How on Earth do UKIP "be brought into disrepute"?
    That's the point. This wasn't so universally obvious before Batten became leader.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,730
    Labour look done for now.

    Remainers won't believe Jezza is really interested in calling off Brexit and will stick with Lib-Dem and Green while they've now pretty much burned their bridges with Labour Leavers...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,305
    edited July 9

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,329
    TGOHF said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    We will never know - NZ heading for 210.

    They still have wickets in hand.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,060

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.
    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    The assumption is that everybody who voted to leave the EU in the famous referendum will meekly fall into line and back Boris Conservatives, whatever their other policies may be, and however stupid and incompetent they are. However, not many people voted to wreck the country, as the Conservative project is set on doing. If you make assumptions in the HY manner, it is quite easy to proclaim a Tory victory, and this encourages you to keep going in the face of reality.

    The real question is just how many days will Mr Johnson stay in office?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,877
    Labour under Corbyn remains the Diet Pepsi of Remain.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,786
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
    I agree. He has a window. And as @Mysticrose has pointed out, may be forced into that position in any case.

    I think Lab's line of a Lab fluffy lovely Brexit vs a Tory nasty baby-eating Brexit will backfire although tbf they are on a hiding to nothing.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,486
    "Once we've delivered Brexit" seems to be the new "deal done in an afternoon" / "we hold all the cards" / "German car manufacturers are coming to our rescue" / "we can rely on GATT 24" / "little Ireland will have to back down in the end" / "Only a leaver can unite the Conservative party"

    A nice little slogan, aspiration never hurt, but it's all reliant on other parties doing things totally against their interest. Brexit will take decades to play out however orderly. All the trade negotiations, legislation for setting up our new regulatory environment, immigration rules, customs and tariffs, etc.

    But the idea that somehow, the promised land for Tories is just round the corner "once Brexit has been delivered" is just another comfort blanket that doesn't survive scrutiny. The Tories are likely to have to face the next General Election with Brexit either in chaos or still log-jammed and us inside the EU. Perhaps a better way of thinking about it would be who would vote Tory above the 9% who did in the Euro elections. Those who like their MP perhaps. Those who don't see it as a free hit. Those who like Corbyn even less. Not sure they will get you nearer 20% than 9% bluntly.

    Are the Tories really ready to fight on that basis? The LIb Dems know what happens when you fight a general election with great incumbents but an 8% poll rating. The Tories can go down as well as up....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,643
    NB The Brexit party supporters don't disappear just because Brexit has been delivered. This seems to be the hope of the Conservatives but there's no evidence of it.

    This polling should terrify the Labour party too. They are expected to get absolutely no benefit from Brexit being seen in the rear view mirror. They can only hope that's incorrect in practice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    CatMan said:

    OT: Cricket News: It's about to rain in Manchester, grrrrrrrr

    https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

    Duckworth Lewis will make it trivial for India.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 14,528

    Labour under Corbyn remains the Diet Pepsi of Remain.

    It's more like the New Coke of Labour Brexit policy.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,486
    TOPPING said:

    I just stuck a cheeky fiver on Davey. Thoroughly decent-seeming bloke. Would appeal to a sensible Conservative type such as myself as leader of the LDs. And who knows what else in the fullness of time.

    And that's exactly the reason I'm now leaning Davey (but choosing to vote late if anything big comes up.) If the LIb Dems are to make big gains next time, it's the Home Counties seats, London seats, West Country seats where the gains are coming - and 1 or 2 in Scotland. I'm coming to the view that Ed's got more chance to persuade the usually Tory voters in the shire towns that the Lib Dems can be trusted with their vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 35,409
    Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party have an offer for left-behind Britain. The new party, which finished first at the European Parliament elections and is averaging 22% in the Westminster polls, has unveiled how it plans to fight a general election that could come as early as this autumn – by morphing into a regionalist party.

    It proposes to withhold payments to the EU, slash overseas aid and scrap HS2 high-speed rail in order to deliver £200 billion of investment to regions outside London, improve transport links and broadband across the country and scrap business rates for new firms outside the capital. It is casting itself, as Freddie Sayers noted, “as the party of the regions, pitted against an over-dominant capital”.


    https://unherd.com/2019/07/the-battle-for-brexit-britain/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,786
    tpfkar said:

    TOPPING said:

    I just stuck a cheeky fiver on Davey. Thoroughly decent-seeming bloke. Would appeal to a sensible Conservative type such as myself as leader of the LDs. And who knows what else in the fullness of time.

    And that's exactly the reason I'm now leaning Davey (but choosing to vote late if anything big comes up.) If the LIb Dems are to make big gains next time, it's the Home Counties seats, London seats, West Country seats where the gains are coming - and 1 or 2 in Scotland. I'm coming to the view that Ed's got more chance to persuade the usually Tory voters in the shire towns that the Lib Dems can be trusted with their vote.
    It's up to the LD members to be as ruthlessly efficient as Cons MPs were. There, they kept a keen eye on overall electability and how the candidates polled (as evidenced by @HYUFD). That was, for the MPs, the determining factor for their selection. It should be every voters' also.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    Is today the day Eleanor Laing took back control ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,329
    This New Zealand innings could prove to be a lot cleverer than it looks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314
    India has had a long field day - Glad Pres Trump has found time to watch the cricket.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,597

    NB The Brexit party supporters don't disappear just because Brexit has been delivered. This seems to be the hope of the Conservatives but there's no evidence of it.
    .

    Ukip did after the referendum.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,171
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
    A chance of a majority. On 23%. If you say so.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,171
    I was hoping for "What's your favourite biscuit?"

    With the Bozo old Etonian answer "A soggy one".
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,643

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
    A chance of a majority. On 23%. If you say so.
    On the figures given above, Electoral Calculus predicts:

    Con 168
    Lab 152
    Brexit 175
    Lib Dem 93
    SNP 41
    Green 1

    There would be a Leave majority but it would not be Boris Johnson in Number 10.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,643
    Donald Trump is almost pitiable. The puncturing of his vanity is visibly unendurable for him.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,329
    Donald Trump is what you get when people on both sides voluntarily vacate the centre ground in politics.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,293
    Putting the Scenario 1 values into Baxter shows Brexit as the largest party on 175 seats, taking Aberavon from Stephen Kinnock and Bolsover from Dennis Skinner, also beating Liz Truss and Rory Stewasrt. Yet they came third in Scenario 1.
    It just seems unlikely, I guess it's because Labour is dooing so badly?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,197
    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    I'd be surprised if they make 240 !
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,823

    NB The Brexit party supporters don't disappear just because Brexit has been delivered. This seems to be the hope of the Conservatives but there's no evidence of it.

    Difficult to find evidence for something that hasn't happened, but the polling suggests that a lot of Brexit Party supporters will stop voting for that party if the Tories have a Hard Brexit leader and if Brexit is achieved. The second poll above suggests that the Tories could win a post-Brexit election with 28% of the vote, so they won't mind too much if some of Farage's fans stick with him.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,657
    Afternoon all :)

    Fascinating poll - once people see they can dump Boris, Corbyn, Brexit and Farage at the same time they'll rush at the chance. LD majority?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,329
    edited July 9

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    I'd be surprised if they make 240 !
    They only need 2 runs a ball to get to about 260, and you'd think that's possible from the last 4 overs. If they ever take place...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,743
    edited July 9
    'Scenario 2: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year after Brexit has been delivered.'

    That 'after Brexit has been delivered' is massively problematic. Nigel will scream betrayal no matter what Boris serves up and probably all of TBP and many Tories will take Nigel's side. Boris is stuffed unless he kisses Nigel's spurs and begs for his patronage.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,358


    It's worth bearing in mind, however, that proroguing parliament is not only a nuclear option, it's also a nuclear option aimed at No Deal: there are lots of regulations which would need to be passed, including very basic ones on things like regulations for agriculture (necessary if we're going to sell ANY food products to the EU). So even if Grieve's remaining amendments don't rule out proroguing parliament, they probably would have the effect in practice of allowing parliament to rule out a 31st October No Deal (subject to EU consent on an extension, or perhaps in the extreme by revocation of Article 50, although that's unclear).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,358
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Fascinating poll - once people see they can dump Boris, Corbyn, Brexit and Farage at the same time they'll rush at the chance. LD majority?

    You better choose Ed Davey if you want that one to run.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,827
    Noone of the polling can be trusted. I currently think I will vote LD in the GE as the Tories have gone mad and Labour are even worse and seriously anti-Semitic... but I will not know for sure until I get into the polling booth. If the risk of Corbyn is great I might have to think long and hard b4 deciding
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 1,269

    Donald Trump is almost pitiable. The puncturing of his vanity is visibly unendurable for him.

    A man with the most horrendous daddy issues. He's obviously been obsessing about it for a couple of days, whereas his predecessors in recent decades (with the exception of Nixon) would have shrugged and said to themselves, "Well, I'm the President, so I win."

    Could we not get some top Hollywood CGI people to reanimate Fred Trump and have him visit Donald to say "I'm proud of you son". Would save a lot of trouble.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 9,171

    'Scenario 2: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year after Brexit has been delivered.'

    That 'after Brexit has been delivered' is massively problematic. Nigel will scream betrayal no matter what Boris serves up and probably all of TBP and many Tories will take Nigel's side. Boris is stuffed unless he kisses Nigel's spurs and begs for his patronage.

    "Scenario 3: Imagine that Bozo has had to Revoke and is then VONCed by parliament..."
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,158

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
    A chance of a majority. On 23%. If you say so.
    On the figures given above, Electoral Calculus predicts:

    Con 168
    Lab 152
    Brexit 175
    Lib Dem 93
    SNP 41
    Green 1

    There would be a Leave majority but it would not be Boris Johnson in Number 10.
    He might change parties. Like Churchill did.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,786

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    That would mean implying that Theresa May has done a good job at Brexit.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,358
    edited July 9

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    Err, isn't Trump saying the same thing as Corbyn says, that the government has screwed up the Brexit negotiations?

    Edit: I see @Topping got there first!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,756

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    Trouble is that would reinforce complaints about Corbyn's kneejerk anti-Americanism.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,197
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    I'd be surprised if they make 240 !
    They only need 2 runs a ball to get to about 260, and you'd think that's possible from the last 4 overs. If they ever take place...
    You have to ask then what were they doing from overs 20 to 35/40 ? If this pitch and with Bumrah bowling at that suddenly yields 12 runs an over, a lot needs to be said about their approach earlier.


    Taylor, and Williamson, are culpable. Even very good bowling should yield 3 singles during the middle overs and a few boundaries here and there. New Zealand are the worst semi-finalists for a long and lucky that their match against India was washed out. India would be pleased though as that meant Pakistan could not qualify.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
    A chance of a majority. On 23%. If you say so.
    On the figures given above, Electoral Calculus predicts:

    Con 168
    Lab 152
    Brexit 175
    Lib Dem 93
    SNP 41
    Green 1

    There would be a Leave majority but it would not be Boris Johnson in Number 10.

    That SNP number looks very low.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,304
    GIN1138 said:

    I think Donald might be a bit upset... ;)

    I know! Poor little chap.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,358

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    In any case, it's hardly 'supine Tory silence' not to want to get involved in a slanging match with Trump.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,283

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    Such hypothetical polling is a waste of time. Dependent on too many 'What If?' scenarios . Also based on Leading Questions stressing Brexit and the leaders.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,220
    dixiedean said:

    The polling question in scenario two doesn't indicate what kind of Brexit is envisaged. That would make a lot of difference.

    Indeed. No deal or WDA? Chaos, or little noticeable change? That is 4 combinations of possible scenarios already.
    Making any such polling as good as worthless.
    Well perhaps not entirely worthless.

    You can assume that some of those putative voters are going to be disappointed. It will be too much or too little Brexit for some of them. And then there's the likely disappointment when the sunlit uplands post-Brexit are slow to appear.

    That 28% looks to me like an upper limit.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265
    TOPPING said:

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    That would mean implying that Theresa May has done a good job at Brexit.

    I think there is a bit more ammunition there than that. It's none of Trump's business is a start. Then there are the relentless attacks on the UK's ambassador and Trump's public angling to get him replaced. It would take a distinct lack of political skill to fail to make hay. That is probably more the problem.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    Trouble is that would reinforce complaints about Corbyn's kneejerk anti-Americanism.

    As I say, a rare occasion to speak on behalf of the majority.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 31,265

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    In any case, it's hardly 'supine Tory silence' not to want to get involved in a slanging match with Trump.

    Someone with a semblence of political skill could very easily portray it as such. The are terrified to offend Trump, or some such.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,643

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
    A chance of a majority. On 23%. If you say so.
    On the figures given above, Electoral Calculus predicts:

    Con 168
    Lab 152
    Brexit 175
    Lib Dem 93
    SNP 41
    Green 1

    There would be a Leave majority but it would not be Boris Johnson in Number 10.

    That SNP number looks very low.

    To be clear, I think the figures are pretty meaningless. I expect in practice the seat counts of both Labour and the Conservatives would be lower.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,283

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
    A chance of a majority. On 23%. If you say so.
    On the figures given above, Electoral Calculus predicts:

    Con 168
    Lab 152
    Brexit 175
    Lib Dem 93
    SNP 41
    Green 1

    There would be a Leave majority but it would not be Boris Johnson in Number 10.

    That SNP number looks very low.

    To be clear, I think the figures are pretty meaningless. I expect in practice the seat counts of both Labour and the Conservatives would be lower.
    I disagree. Both parties would end up polling above 30% were a GE to be called.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 54,314

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    I'd be surprised if they make 240 !
    I make the Duckworth Lewis Stern score right now as 241

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,581

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    Trouble is that would reinforce complaints about Corbyn's kneejerk anti-Americanism.

    As I say, a rare occasion to speak on behalf of the majority.

    As you have plenty of experience of?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,643
    Looking at the radar, there could be some interesting decisions to be made at Old Trafford. It's not inconceivable that the game gets reduced substantially in overs and the game not being completed today, which would seem a bit farcical.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,643
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
    A chance of a majority. On 23%. If you say so.
    On the figures given above, Electoral Calculus predicts:

    Con 168
    Lab 152
    Brexit 175
    Lib Dem 93
    SNP 41
    Green 1

    There would be a Leave majority but it would not be Boris Johnson in Number 10.

    That SNP number looks very low.

    To be clear, I think the figures are pretty meaningless. I expect in practice the seat counts of both Labour and the Conservatives would be lower.
    I disagree. Both parties would end up polling above 30% were a GE to be called.
    I'm far from convinced you're right. There is abundant polling evidence that Brexit is felt more keenly by most voters than party loyalties. Given that, if the two main parties have failed those who previously voted for them, they might well find themselves seeing a stampede for the exits.

    But in any case I was referring to an actual outcome at the poll figures envisaged.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,786

    TOPPING said:

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    That would mean implying that Theresa May has done a good job at Brexit.

    I think there is a bit more ammunition there than that. It's none of Trump's business is a start. Then there are the relentless attacks on the UK's ambassador and Trump's public angling to get him replaced. It would take a distinct lack of political skill to fail to make hay. That is probably more the problem.
    As you note - anyone with a semblance of political skill. Which Corbs has none of. If you think he would be able to pivot from "what exactly is it that Trump says that you disagree with?" you are smoking the same thing as @TheJezziah.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 4,304

    NB The Brexit party supporters don't disappear just because Brexit has been delivered. This seems to be the hope of the Conservatives but there's no evidence of it.

    This polling should terrify the Labour party too. They are expected to get absolutely no benefit from Brexit being seen in the rear view mirror. They can only hope that's incorrect in practice.

    I am firmly of the belief that for Labour under Corbyn to have a good chance of winning the next general election it has to come BEFORE any Brexit is delivered.

    I think they know this too.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 2,520

    TOPPING said:

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    That would mean implying that Theresa May has done a good job at Brexit.

    I think there is a bit more ammunition there than that. It's none of Trump's business is a start. Then there are the relentless attacks on the UK's ambassador and Trump's public angling to get him replaced. It would take a distinct lack of political skill to fail to make hay. That is probably more the problem.
    Why are the Tory’s so reluctant to tell trump to get lost it’s degrading to watch a country behave so pathetically when it’s PM and it’s ambassador are so publically insulted.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 1,269
    edited July 9

    'Scenario 2: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year after Brexit has been delivered.'

    That 'after Brexit has been delivered' is massively problematic. Nigel will scream betrayal no matter what Boris serves up and probably all of TBP and many Tories will take Nigel's side. Boris is stuffed unless he kisses Nigel's spurs and begs for his patronage.

    If Johnson can do it then sure Farage & the Brexit Party will scream "betrayal" until they are blue in the face. But a lot of Leave voters (and Remain ones indeed) will breathe a sigh of relief and get on with their lives, and the numerous other bigger concerns from the NHS to the environment, and from schools to the economy. Brexit has become totemic, but it remains the case that it's pretty esoteric for most people.

    Johnson's case is, in many ways, very simple if (huge if) he gets out on May's deal modified to provide the tiniest fig-leaf of modesty. "You voted to leave, and I made sure we left". The hardcore Brexiteers' case is complex, "this deal wasn't the best, and let me take you through 137 reasons why..." If you're explaining your losing in politics, and the world and news agenda moves on.

    In a sense, the Brexit Party risks being a victim of its own success. The European Elections, subsequent polling, and doorstep conversations will, I suspect, have persuaded quite a lot of May's opponents that the best option is to give the new PM his deal and his moment, because the idea of going into an election on the maybe of a deal is terrifying.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 8,283
    edited July 9

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD keeps telling us that Bozo will call a GE asap and win an overall majority.

    I am puzzled how this assertion can be backed up by the above polling.

    No, I am saying that without a GE by October there will be no Brexit as the current Commons will always vote against the Withdrawal Agreement and for extension or revoke over No Deal.

    So as the polling shows esp Comres Boris has a chance of a majority with an early autumn general election and thus there is a chance of Brexit, without a general election there will likely be no Brexit.

    An election of Boris Brexit Deal or No Deal or EUref2 with Corbyn and the LDs is a fair choice
    A chance of a majority. On 23%. If you say so.
    On the figures given above, Electoral Calculus predicts:

    Con 168
    Lab 152
    Brexit 175
    Lib Dem 93
    SNP 41
    Green 1

    There would be a Leave majority but it would not be Boris Johnson in Number 10.

    That SNP number looks very low.

    To be clear, I think the figures are pretty meaningless. I expect in practice the seat counts of both Labour and the Conservatives would be lower.
    I disagree. Both parties would end up polling above 30% were a GE to be called.
    I'm far from convinced you're right. There is abundant polling evidence that Brexit is felt more keenly by most voters than party loyalties. Given that, if the two main parties have failed those who previously voted for them, they might well find themselves seeing a stampede for the exits.

    But in any case I was referring to an actual outcome at the poll figures envisaged.
    The polls are already showing signs of slippage in LD and BXT party support with the former at 15% /16% and the latter below 20%. Most now have the main parties in the range of 24% - 28%. Labour's policy shift re-the Referendum might well see them back above 30% soon.
    Yougov differs somewhat.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,358

    Someone with a semblence of political skill could very easily portray it as such. The are terrified to offend Trump, or some such.

    Probably, but to be honest it's thin gruel and I really don't think it will have much resonance. Everyone knows Trump is a jerk. The PM, the Foreign Sec and various other ministers and Tory MPs have said as much as they should say.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,730
    Surely it's relatively easy to fudge the answer?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,329
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    I'd be surprised if they make 240 !
    I make the Duckworth Lewis Stern score right now as 241

    With 5 wickets in hand? I'm surprised, I thought it would be a bit higher.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,197
    Trump trashed Theresa May. Totally out of order.

    Who invited Trump for a State visit to the UK ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    kinabalu said:

    NB The Brexit party supporters don't disappear just because Brexit has been delivered. This seems to be the hope of the Conservatives but there's no evidence of it.

    This polling should terrify the Labour party too. They are expected to get absolutely no benefit from Brexit being seen in the rear view mirror. They can only hope that's incorrect in practice.

    I am firmly of the belief that for Labour under Corbyn to have a good chance of winning the next general election it has to come BEFORE any Brexit is delivered.

    I think they know this too.
    What if Brexit is delivered and it is very bad?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,827
    I'm not sure quite how resonant the Epstein story is in the US (seems pretty smelly from here), but might Trump doubling down on Darroch be a handy distraction? It's a ploy that he's been accused of/credited with before.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,479

    I'm not sure quite how resonant the Epstein story is in the US (seems pretty smelly from here), but might Trump doubling down on Darroch be a handy distraction? It's a ploy that he's been accused of/credited with before.

    The Darroch story isn't getting much coverage on the US media
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,197
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    I'd be surprised if they make 240 !
    I make the Duckworth Lewis Stern score right now as 241

    With 5 wickets in hand? I'm surprised, I thought it would be a bit higher.
    I cannot find a good DLS calculator in google.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,581
    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    In the face of supine Tory silence over the repeated insults Donald Trump is hurling at the UK, Jeremy Corbyn has a genuine and very rare opportunity to speak for the majority of British people and tell him to piss off. It's the most basic politics 101. Can Corbyn manage it?

    That would mean implying that Theresa May has done a good job at Brexit.

    I think there is a bit more ammunition there than that. It's none of Trump's business is a start. Then there are the relentless attacks on the UK's ambassador and Trump's public angling to get him replaced. It would take a distinct lack of political skill to fail to make hay. That is probably more the problem.
    Why are the Tory’s so reluctant to tell trump to get lost it’s degrading to watch a country behave so pathetically when it’s PM and it’s ambassador are so publically insulted.
    Cos no one insults Trump? Incidentally, think the insults are thoroughly deserved in both directions.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 28,329

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. 270 might be a competitive score on this wicket.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47484049

    I'd be surprised if they make 240 !
    I make the Duckworth Lewis Stern score right now as 241

    With 5 wickets in hand? I'm surprised, I thought it would be a bit higher.
    I cannot find a good DLS calculator in google.
    Nor can I. Proves that everything isn't available online.
This discussion has been closed.