It's amazing the difference in how the anti semitism stuff runs and runs and sticks to Corbyn like glue yet the much bigger problem with the Tories and muslims gets barely a mention in compariosn. I would say its odd but it isn't. We really are colour blind as a nation when it comes to racism and prejudice. The Tories hating on predominantly Brown people is clearly an acceptable prejudice when neither should be.
I don't have the numbers to hand but how many cases/complaints of Islamophobia is the Cons' dispute team handling at the moment?
It's amazing the difference in how the anti semitism stuff runs and runs and sticks to Corbyn like glue yet the much bigger problem with the Tories and muslims gets barely a mention in compariosn. I would say its odd but it isn't. We really are colour blind as a nation when it comes to racism and prejudice. The Tories hating on predominantly Brown people is clearly an acceptable prejudice when neither should be.
I don't have the numbers to hand but how many cases/complaints of Islamophobia is the Cons' dispute team handling at the moment?
And is there any evidence that #10 are interfering in them / putting certain people on the "independent" panels to ensure certain outcomes?
I don't see the point in wasting energy on constantly attacking someone or something that won't see your attacks and would ignore them if they did.
Better to focus on what you can change - at least that is how I view things.
It is why I saw no point in the protests outside Blenheim when Trump visited - he was never going to pay attention. It might make the protesters feel better inside but it won't change a thing.
Everyone has the right to protest, rant, rail against whatever they like (within the law) but that isn't my way of operating.
I'm sure when you feel strongly about an issue you make your voice heard even in the knowledge that you personally do not have the power to make a material impact on it.
You would be very quiet otherwise because that goes for almost every big political issue, if you think about it.
Ergo we conclude that you do not feel strongly about this one - Trump in the White House.
Which, as per my original post, is something I struggle to understand.
Who he will be aware is a notorious far right activist who promotes extreme racist views.
This, my fellow posters, is the President of the USA.
WTF.
If the USA (indeed the world) survives this, they will need to spend a lot of time fixing a constitution that has allowed someone who is dangerously ill and/or unhinged to become president.
The 25th is supposed to be the way to deal with this, but it clearly doesn't work if the Cabinet are all place men and the rest of the governing party doesn't care.
Trump doesn't appear any more mentally abnormal now than he was at inauguration or election. It'd be wrong to override the electorate just because they elected a dick.
Who he will be aware is a notorious far right activist who promotes extreme racist views.
This, my fellow posters, is the President of the USA.
WTF.
If the USA (indeed the world) survives this, they will need to spend a lot of time fixing a constitution that has allowed someone who is dangerously ill and/or unhinged to become president.
The 25th is supposed to be the way to deal with this, but it clearly doesn't work if the Cabinet are all place men and the rest of the governing party doesn't care.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
Who he will be aware is a notorious far right activist who promotes extreme racist views.
This, my fellow posters, is the President of the USA.
WTF.
If the USA (indeed the world) survives this, they will need to spend a lot of time fixing a constitution that has allowed someone who is dangerously ill and/or unhinged to become president.
The 25th is supposed to be the way to deal with this, but it clearly doesn't work if the Cabinet are all place men and the rest of the governing party doesn't care.
Is there a sanity test for UK PM?
I've looked at the various documents that make up the constitution, and can say that there ain't no sanity clause.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
Is Hunt winning among PB Tories? Is anyone keeping count?
I have voted for Boris, I believe Gin, Philip Thompson, Viceroy of Orange and MarqueeMark snd Mortimer are also Boris supporters, almost everyone else for Hunt
I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.
There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
It's amazing the difference in how the anti semitism stuff runs and runs and sticks to Corbyn like glue yet the much bigger problem with the Tories and muslims gets barely a mention in compariosn. I would say its odd but it isn't. We really are colour blind as a nation when it comes to racism and prejudice. The Tories hating on predominantly Brown people is clearly an acceptable prejudice when neither should be.
Corbyn has only himself to blame if it sticks to him like glue.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
However you are Labour anyway
How can a Remainer such as yourself be in favour of that arch Leaver Boris?
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
However you are Labour anyway
How can a Remainer such as yourself be in favour of that arch Leaver Boris?
He's like a Jihadi convert who has strapped on the suicide belt of Boris/No Deal.
I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.
There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
They won't so it won't be an issue.
At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
In all the hubbub about the Panorama programme about anti-Semitism and Labour's response, no one seems to have realised that the allegations made in the programme are of direct bearing to the EHRC investigation into the Labour party. That was always going to be difficult for Labour and it now looks set to become devastating for the party leadership's vestigial credibility.
Meanwhile, those Labour MPs purportedly opposed to the party's tolerance of anti-Semitism are continuing to do nothing meaningful.
Haven't the cult already decided the EHRC are run by the Zionists?
Who he will be aware is a notorious far right activist who promotes extreme racist views.
This, my fellow posters, is the President of the USA.
WTF.
If the USA (indeed the world) survives this, they will need to spend a lot of time fixing a constitution that has allowed someone who is dangerously ill and/or unhinged to become president.
The 25th is supposed to be the way to deal with this, but it clearly doesn't work if the Cabinet are all place men and the rest of the governing party doesn't care.
Is there a sanity test for UK PM?
No, technically you can be a serial killer and become PM if you win enough votes as long as you are not serving more than a year in prison at the time
I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.
There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
They won't so it won't be an issue.
At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
"Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
What are England doing against Lyon...they just need to dink it around for 1s.
See ball; hit ball. Play too cautious a game, and you risk being becalmed, and sometimes the best way to deal with a decent spinner is attack them early.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
However you are Labour anyway
How can a Remainer such as yourself be in favour of that arch Leaver Boris?
Boris won the Brexit vote, Boris can therefore deliver Brexit
I noticed some in the last thread using the Laffer Curve as an excuse to support their preconceptions rather than as an argument.
The giveaway is when they seem unaware that the same Laffer Curve also says that raising taxes can increase revenue and lowering them can reduce revenue.
The key variable is where we are on the curve; those who try to cite it as an excuse for a tax cut automatically seem to assume that we are, no matter the conditions or the current tax level, always on the right hand side of the peak, with not even the slightest attempt to justify that position.
"It can increase revenue by reducing taxes" instantly mutates into "It will increase revenue by reducing taxes." It is just as fallacious as the opposite automatic assumption; that raising taxes automatically increases revenue. It's very rare for either type of advocate to try to make the case legitimately.
There's also a difference between the short term and the long-term. If you put corporation tax up to 75% tomorrow, it would probably raise money in the short term. Longer term, it would change behaviour, and revenues would fall.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
However you are Labour anyway
How can a Remainer such as yourself be in favour of that arch Leaver Boris?
Boris won the Brexit vote, Boris can therefore deliver Brexit
We shall see. I just wonder why you, as a remainer, seem to be such a supporter of his.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
However you are Labour anyway
Another day, another blinkered view of your Messiah
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
In all the hubbub about the Panorama programme about anti-Semitism and Labour's response, no one seems to have realised that the allegations made in the programme are of direct bearing to the EHRC investigation into the Labour party. That was always going to be difficult for Labour and it now looks set to become devastating for the party leadership's vestigial credibility.
Meanwhile, those Labour MPs purportedly opposed to the party's tolerance of anti-Semitism are continuing to do nothing meaningful.
Haven't the cult already decided the EHRC are run by the Zionists?
I believe it is funded by Israel.
Aren't we all these days? Unless, that is, we are pure believers of the one true faith.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
In all the hubbub about the Panorama programme about anti-Semitism and Labour's response, no one seems to have realised that the allegations made in the programme are of direct bearing to the EHRC investigation into the Labour party. That was always going to be difficult for Labour and it now looks set to become devastating for the party leadership's vestigial credibility.
Meanwhile, those Labour MPs purportedly opposed to the party's tolerance of anti-Semitism are continuing to do nothing meaningful.
Haven't the cult already decided the EHRC are run by the Zionists?
I believe it is funded by Israel.
On twitter I've been accused of being a Zionist and being funded by Israel.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
You voted REMAIN, you are a closet REMAINER anyway! (and I last voted Labour in 2015, and I voted LEAVE in 2016, Tory in 2017 and BXP in 2019)
Worse than Chuka.
There is a councillor in Rochdale I think who has switched from Labour to LD to Brexit Party in the space of about 6 months. That is quite some journey
I noticed some in the last thread using the Laffer Curve as an excuse to support their preconceptions rather than as an argument.
The giveaway is when they seem unaware that the same Laffer Curve also says that raising taxes can increase revenue and lowering them can reduce revenue.
The key variable is where we are on the curve; those who try to cite it as an excuse for a tax cut automatically seem to assume that we are, no matter the conditions or the current tax level, always on the right hand side of the peak, with not even the slightest attempt to justify that position.
"It can increase revenue by reducing taxes" instantly mutates into "It will increase revenue by reducing taxes." It is just as fallacious as the opposite automatic assumption; that raising taxes automatically increases revenue. It's very rare for either type of advocate to try to make the case legitimately.
There's also a difference between the short term and the long-term. If you put corporation tax up to 75% tomorrow, it would probably raise money in the short term. Longer term, it would change behaviour, and revenues would fall.
People also tend to omit consideration of the tax incidence in such discussions as well.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
In all the hubbub about the Panorama programme about anti-Semitism and Labour's response, no one seems to have realised that the allegations made in the programme are of direct bearing to the EHRC investigation into the Labour party. That was always going to be difficult for Labour and it now looks set to become devastating for the party leadership's vestigial credibility.
Meanwhile, those Labour MPs purportedly opposed to the party's tolerance of anti-Semitism are continuing to do nothing meaningful.
I have. See what I wrote regarding the response to the EHRC as per Tom Watson's interview this morning. If true, it is an extraordinary way to respond to an external authority.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
You voted REMAIN, you are a closet REMAINER anyway! (and I last voted Labour in 2015, and I voted LEAVE in 2016, Tory in 2017 and BXP in 2019)
Not my personal trajectory, but you have to say that Sunil's choice to vote for three different parties in three successive elections without having to have changed his own political opinion at all is quite remarkable.
(I'm not second guessing Sunil's reasons for voting - he may have had some major rethinking in the last five years for all I know - my point is that he wouldn't have had to.)
Light rain at the cricket... can we get to 20 overs?
Don't need to, there's a reserve day
From the BBC
If it rains before England have batted for 20 overs and they are not able to resume today then we will come back again tomorrow and use the reserve day, resuming from the score England are on when the match is stopped.
Once England have batted 20 overs this match will be decided today, using the DLS method if necessary.
Er, you do realise Boris will be a complete disaster for the Country and (long term) the Tory Party?
No, Boris will be a great leader for the country and a brilliant leader for the Tory Party too. Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
You voted REMAIN, you are a closet REMAINER anyway! (and I last voted Labour in 2015, and I voted LEAVE in 2016, Tory in 2017 and BXP in 2019)
Worse than Chuka.
There is a councillor in Rochdale I think who has switched from Labour to LD to Brexit Party in the space of about 6 months. That is quite some journey
How's this for a journey:
Labour 1997 Labour 1998 (locals) Red Ken independent 2000 LD 2001 LD 2002 (locals) LD 2004 (London Mayor and Euros) LD 2005 LD 2006 (Cambridge locals) LD 2007 (Cambridge locals) Con 2008 (Boris (!!!!!!)) LD 2008 (London Assembly) Con 2009 (Euros) Con 2010 No2AV 2011 Con 2012 (Boris (!!!!!)) UKIP 2014 (Euros) Labour 2015 (um, I felt sorry for EICIPM!) Leave 2016 Con 2017 BXP 2019 (um, just for a bit of fun!)
It's amazing the difference in how the anti semitism stuff runs and runs and sticks to Corbyn like glue yet the much bigger problem with the Tories and muslims gets barely a mention in compariosn. I would say its odd but it isn't. We really are colour blind as a nation when it comes to racism and prejudice. The Tories hating on predominantly Brown people is clearly an acceptable prejudice when neither should be.
I would tentatively postulate 2 sides to this coin.
Heads -
Because Jews are white, some on the Labour Left think they cannot be valid victims of racism. Thus some on the Labour Left (in their heart of hearts) do not consider antisemitism to be a serious matter. They pretend they do but, really, they don't.
Tails -
Because Jews are white, a significant number of other white people (in their heart of hearts) consider prejudice against them to be ESPECIALLY serious, and certainly more serious than prejudice against people who are not white, such as Muslims. These people therefore consider antisemitism to be toxic in a way that islamophobia, for example, is not. Most of the people who think this way, although by no means all of them, happen to be Tories.
Well, assuming our future PM is who everybody expects it to be, when somebody refers to him with the c-word, at least we'll know that's what they think and it's not a Freudian slip.
Yep. Unless he thought he’d hit it Bairstow’s review made no sense.
It was Shane Watson levels of review badness.
Compared to some of the mistakes England have made, it hardly figures, though. Better now than in a close final. We should just get on with winning the game calmly.
Yep. Unless he thought he’d hit it Bairstow’s review made no sense.
It was Shane Watson levels of review badness.
Almost Broad like.
No, that would require a long and storied history of inexplicable reviews.
That’s why I said almost. Feel sorry for Roy who has been denied an excellent 100 but that’s the game. Hope that there are no consequences from his dissent.
I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.
There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
They won't so it won't be an issue.
At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
"Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
No, it can be done in an afternoon Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.
With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
Yep. Unless he thought he’d hit it Bairstow’s review made no sense.
It was Shane Watson levels of review badness.
Almost Broad like.
No, that would require a long and storied history of inexplicable reviews.
That’s why I said almost. Feel sorry for Roy who has been denied an excellent 100 but that’s the game. Hope that there are no consequences from his dissent.
I guess that is because the Tory :Party membership database is inaccurate, they have sent ballot ;papers to a lot of people who are dead, have moved, lost interest etc. Our new PM could well be elected by less than 50,000 people.
I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.
There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
They won't so it won't be an issue.
At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
"Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
No, it can be done in an afternoon Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.
With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.
There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
They won't so it won't be an issue.
At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
"Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
No, it can be done in an afternoon Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.
With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
Going back to the original NI-only backstop may be negotiable, but it does require the Withdrawal Agreement to be reopened, contrary to the UK's commitment to the EU. It will take more than an afternoon, and if Johnson's hypothetical majority wasn't secured on the basis of agreeing to an NI-only backstop, it would be doubtful he'd even get enough of his own MPs to vote for it.
It might be a bit of a bubble but the US stock market has done very well under Trump.
Hasn't it done worse than under Obama?
DJIA annualised rate of growth under Trump is 13.4%, under Obama was 12.8%.
I love the way it is seen as a relevant measure of a presidency even though we all know their influence on the stock market over a 4 year period is tiny compared to the noise.
I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.
There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
They won't so it won't be an issue.
At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
"Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
No, it can be done in an afternoon Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.
With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.
He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
It might be a bit of a bubble but the US stock market has done very well under Trump.
Hasn't it done worse than under Obama?
DJIA annualised rate of growth under Trump is 13.4%, under Obama was 12.8%.
(1) Why are you using the DJIA rather than the S&P500 (2) You need to use total return (i.e. including dividends) (3) Stock market returns are a rubbish measure. Over the long term, returns from stocks will be about 7%. Anything more than that - especially over a period of a decade or more - merely sets you up for a nasty shock later when valuations mean revert
It might be a bit of a bubble but the US stock market has done very well under Trump.
Hasn't it done worse than under Obama?
DJIA annualised rate of growth under Trump is 13.4%, under Obama was 12.8%.
I love the way it is seen as a relevant measure of a presidency even though we all know their influence on the stock market over a 4 year period is tiny compared to the noise.
It's all the Gov'ts fault when it goes wrong. Could affect re-election chances too...
I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.
There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
They won't so it won't be an issue.
At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
"Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
No, it can be done in an afternoon Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.
With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
Going back to the original NI-only backstop may be negotiable, but it does require the Withdrawal Agreement to be reopened, contrary to the UK's commitment to the EU. It will take more than an afternoon, and if Johnson's hypothetical majority wasn't secured on the basis of agreeing to an NI-only backstop, it would be doubtful he'd even get enough of his own MPs to vote for it.
He would as long as the temporary Customs Union for GB removed, plus some Labour MPs like Nandy have said they will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement now anyway.
The Withdrawal Agreement easily passes with a clear Tory majority
Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.
He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
Have you not seen Johnson's speech at the DUP conference where he denounces the Northern Ireland component of the backstop?
I am not convinced, either. If there is an election in the wind, he’ll want one more go, and we won’t be clear of possible electoral imminence until Bozo has settled in and until after halloween, and with a likely further extension, probably not until early 2020.
There will be no further extension under Boris, he will refuse to request another one so we Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st unless Parliament first tries to force one and Macron does not veto it anyway
So, if the EU says "yes, we will renegotiate the backstop", then Boris will say:
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
They won't so it won't be an issue.
At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
"Remove the temporary Customs Union for GB" = renegotiate the backstop. There won't be time to do it in between a General Election and October 31st. When do you propose the referendum in Northern Ireland should be?
No, it can be done in an afternoon Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.
With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
But May brought in the UK customs union because the DUP were adamant that they would not accept a NI one. I don’t think that has changed.
Boris will throw the DUP under a bus if he wins a majority.
He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
Boris only wants to be PM and he promises whatever to whoever to achieve that and takes people in accordingly
Comments
You would be very quiet otherwise because that goes for almost every big political issue, if you think about it.
Ergo we conclude that you do not feel strongly about this one - Trump in the White House.
Which, as per my original post, is something I struggle to understand.
Maybe even in the Churchill and Thatcher league of Tory leadets if all goes well.
However you are Labour anyway
(I'll get my coat)
"Ha! No time, sorry suxxers. We're out we No Deal"?
At most if Boris wins a majority by early autumn he will remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May imposed and then pass the Withdrawal Agreement and let Northern Ireland voters decide whether to join GB on that basis or keep the backstop by referendum
Play too cautious a game, and you risk being becalmed, and sometimes the best way to deal with a decent spinner is attack them early.
(and I last voted Labour in 2015, and I voted LEAVE in 2016, Tory in 2017 and BXP in 2019)
Aggregate polling, ignoring hypothetical PMs, puts Lab slightly ahead, but a Con / BXP gov possible depending on where the BXP vote is.
So Lab isn't in too dire straits.
(I'm not second guessing Sunil's reasons for voting - he may have had some major rethinking in the last five years for all I know - my point is that he wouldn't have had to.)
If it rains before England have batted for 20 overs and they are not able to resume today then we will come back again tomorrow and use the reserve day, resuming from the score England are on when the match is stopped.
Once England have batted 20 overs this match will be decided today, using the DLS method if necessary.
Labour 1997
Labour 1998 (locals)
Red Ken independent 2000
LD 2001
LD 2002 (locals)
LD 2004 (London Mayor and Euros)
LD 2005
LD 2006 (Cambridge locals)
LD 2007 (Cambridge locals)
Con 2008 (Boris (!!!!!!))
LD 2008 (London Assembly)
Con 2009 (Euros)
Con 2010
No2AV 2011
Con 2012 (Boris (!!!!!))
UKIP 2014 (Euros)
Labour 2015 (um, I felt sorry for EICIPM!)
Leave 2016
Con 2017
BXP 2019 (um, just for a bit of fun!)
The collapse is on.
I think he's pretty much nailed on, to be honest. Alas.
Heads -
Because Jews are white, some on the Labour Left think they cannot be valid victims of racism. Thus some on the Labour Left (in their heart of hearts) do not consider antisemitism to be a serious matter. They pretend they do but, really, they don't.
Tails -
Because Jews are white, a significant number of other white people (in their heart of hearts) consider prejudice against them to be ESPECIALLY serious, and certainly more serious than prejudice against people who are not white, such as Muslims. These people therefore consider antisemitism to be toxic in a way that islamophobia, for example, is not. Most of the people who think this way, although by no means all of them, happen to be Tories.
Fecking useless review.
https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1149198151414427653
To celebrate the end of a likely Cabinet place for Lord Farage as Boris's deputy (following a 'suggestion' from Trump).
We should just get on with winning the game calmly.
https://twitter.com/BBCArchive/status/1139548052547522560
Barnier never required it, May did. There was never any temporary Customs Union for GB requirement by the EU only for NI.
With a majority the Withdrawal Agreement can be passed and Northern Ireland can have a confirmatory referendum after as to whether to keep the backstop or not
Though probably not in the coaching manual.
https://twitter.com/ConHome/status/1149210110666977286?s=20
https://twitter.com/TheSportsman/status/1149333146200096768
He only cares about GB leaving the EU, single market and Customs Union and getting a FTA with the EU, he will let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum, even the Sunday Times last week confirmed that was what some Boris aides were planning
(2) You need to use total return (i.e. including dividends)
(3) Stock market returns are a rubbish measure. Over the long term, returns from stocks will be about 7%. Anything more than that - especially over a period of a decade or more - merely sets you up for a nasty shock later when valuations mean revert
Jeremy from Bristol
The Withdrawal Agreement easily passes with a clear Tory majority
GOPTory leadership election. CCHQ wont comment.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjubxheN6ME
Hitting Starc like that was unbelievable.
https://twitter.com/NickElliott91/status/1149322347612188672