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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the Tory Brecon bar chart to try to beat off the Brexi

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the Tory Brecon bar chart to try to beat off the Brexit party

From a Tory campaign AD Brecon & Radnorshire by-election

Read the full story here


«134567

Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,905
    Jeremy Hunt is big on tariffs and sheep farming. He should be canvassing here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    Second like the Tories in B&R. If they are lucky.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    edited July 12
    The seemingly pointless arrows pointing at the Labour and minor party columns are odd.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063
    I remember the Tories in Ceredigion produced a bar chart showing the Liberal Democrats were fourth, not second.

    That was of course the year Mark Williams gained the seat from Plaid...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,115
    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,905
    I cannot see why the Brexit Party will threaten the Conservative vote. Parliament will be in recess so the new PM cannot make a fool of himself there. Boris will be talking about a better deal or no deal, and even if tariffs are an issue, that is more likely to tip voters to the LibDems or Labour than the Brexit Party. 6/4 is not tempting.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,704
    Seventh like Labour.

    .....what?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063

    Seventh like Labour.

    .....what?

    Ever the optimist, captain!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 19,063

    I cannot see why the Brexit Party will threaten the Conservative vote. Parliament will be in recess so the new PM cannot make a fool of himself there. Boris will be talking about a better deal or no deal, and even if tariffs are an issue, that is more likely to tip voters to the LibDems or Labour than the Brexit Party. 6/4 is not tempting.

    I would have thought a significant chunk of Leavers in that constituency were Labour voters from Ystradgynlais.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939
    The conviction was appalling. There was no enrichment. A case of bad judgement from the MP and a strong telling off. Causing a by-election is utterly ridiculous.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 600
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    The official secrets act doesn't care about the classification level. Whoever leaked it seems guilty under section 3(1)(a)

    (1) A person who is or has been a Crown servant or government contractor is guilty of an offence if without lawful authority he makes a damaging disclosure of—
    (a)any information, document or other article relating to international relations; or
    When I was a teenager, the subject of the Official Secrets' Act came up at home.

    Brother: I'm not going to say .... I've signed the Official Secrets' Act.
    Dad: I've signed it too.
    Brother: But that doesn't mean that we can tell each other what we know.

    Both had jobs that in 1979 or so were still in the public sector, and I find it laughable that they had to sign the OFA. I doubt my Dad was aware of any secret more important than the serial numbers for the transistors in the design of the latest telephones.



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,138
    FPT:
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    The official secrets act doesn't care about the classification level. Whoever leaked it seems guilty under section 3(1)(a)

    (1) A person who is or has been a Crown servant or government contractor is guilty of an offence if without lawful authority he makes a damaging disclosure of—
    (a)any information, document or other article relating to international relations; or
    I don’t know how the act works, but to give some context, that marking is what goes on government stats at pre-release. I just find it interesting that the two are at the same level.

    But as others have said, if the will is there, the perpetrator is probably looking at a lengthy stretch inside.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,340
    Call that a bar chart .... Tsk

    The Tories should be ashamed of themselves for such a weak effort .... :innocent:
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,310
    Looking forward to @HYUFD to spinning this one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    JackW said:

    Call that a bar chart .... Tsk

    The Tories should be ashamed of themselves for such a weak effort .... :innocent:

    Doing the LibDems a favour, making the 12k bar three quarters the size of their 20k one.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,310
    Lab on 4% in Brid :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    "A key vote that paves the way for MPs to block a no-deal Brexit was seemingly lost because a Tory whip forgot to vote. Just one single vote was enough for the vote on Dominic Grieve’s amendment to pass on Monday night, which MPs are hoping will ultimately stop the next Prime Minister suspending parliament so Britain can exit the EU without a deal.

    Jo Churchill, the MP for Bury St Edmunds does not appear on the division lists for the vote - with colleagues saying she had forgotten to vote. Ms Churchill had been acting as a proxy for Norwich North MP Chloe Smith and it is presumed that she forgot to cast her own vote alongside.

    Pictures from the chamber show Ms Churchill reacting in horror as the result of the vote was announced.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,340
    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    Call that a bar chart .... Tsk

    The Tories should be ashamed of themselves for such a weak effort .... :innocent:

    Doing the LibDems a favour, making the 12k bar three quarters the size of their 20k one.
    Precisely. Shocking poor attempt from the Conservatives. What self respecting bar chartist would be prepared to pen such a travesty I do not know .... Likely a LibDem double agent !!
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 939
    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Interesting comment from Isabel Oakeshott on last night's Sky paper review. She said that the leaked emails were marked "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE", which is one step up from the minimum security marking.

    The official secrets act doesn't care about the classification level. Whoever leaked it seems guilty under section 3(1)(a)

    (1) A person who is or has been a Crown servant or government contractor is guilty of an offence if without lawful authority he makes a damaging disclosure of—
    (a)any information, document or other article relating to international relations; or
    When I was a teenager, the subject of the Official Secrets' Act came up at home.

    Brother: I'm not going to say .... I've signed the Official Secrets' Act.
    Dad: I've signed it too.
    Brother: But that doesn't mean that we can tell each other what we know.

    Both had jobs that in 1979 or so were still in the public sector, and I find it laughable that they had to sign the OFA. I doubt my Dad was aware of any secret more important than the serial numbers for the transistors in the design of the latest telephones.



    We are all subject to the OSA, whether we have signed it or not. Signing it doesn’t mean anything other than you acknowledging you have been made aware of its existence. If you are (as posted above) in those positions you have greater restrictions upon you. The information also has to be ‘damaging’.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234

    Lab on 4% in Brid :D

    Down from 29% !!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,731
    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,340
    edited July 12
    IanB2 said:

    Lab on 4% in Brid :D

    Down from 29% !!
    Now that would make a great bar chart .. :smile:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743
    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499
    notme2 said:

    The conviction was appalling. There was no enrichment. A case of bad judgement from the MP and a strong telling off. Causing a by-election is utterly ridiculous.

    There was enrichment because he should have paid the overspend out of his own pocket. He chose to instead falsify two invoices so he could pas the overspend onto a different budget line. In fact to have done this rather than pay a few hundred pounds from his own pocket shows how stupid he is. Don’t try and spin this as an accounting error it was not it was FRAUD.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,731

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    Don't be silly, he's not in post yet...!

    Of course, for HYUFD it only works one way - apparently all the new "Tories under Boris" voters are just holding themselves back until the very moment of his elevation, whereas the "Tories without Johnson" voters have already noticed he's going to win and have left already.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499
    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    What was the t/o?
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 348

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    He’s just a very naughty boy.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,905
    alex. said:

    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.

    Other way round perhaps? There is a clear public interest, and there are no actual secrets divulged.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,731

    alex. said:

    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.

    Other way round perhaps? There is a clear public interest, and there are no actual secrets divulged.
    1) What is the public interest?
    2) I'm quite sure that Ambassador despatches are classified information.

    BTW I'm a bit confused by this conversation about emails being marked "official - sensitive". I'm not sure that what was leaked were emails marked in such a way. More likely that they were leaked via email that was marked as "official - sensitive".

    ie. it was a classification put on by the leaker, not a classication of the leaks.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    What was the t/o?
    About 27% - very similar to the 29% in May when the Tories won by a landslide.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 11,905
    edited July 12
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.

    Other way round perhaps? There is a clear public interest, and there are no actual secrets divulged.
    1) What is the public interest?
    2) I'm quite sure that Ambassador despatches are classified information.

    BTW I'm a bit confused by this conversation about emails being marked "official - sensitive". I'm not sure that what was leaked were emails marked in such a way. More likely that they were leaked via email that was marked as "official - sensitive".

    ie. it was a classification put on by the leaker, not a classication of the leaks.

    You miss the point, which is not about classification and automatic offences under the Act but that nothing that has been divulged was actually secret. The Mail might have had second thoughts about printing nuclear launch codes or the disposition of submarines but this was just a mish-mash of common knowledge and gossip.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 21,028

    I cannot see why the Brexit Party will threaten the Conservative vote. Parliament will be in recess so the new PM cannot make a fool of himself there. Boris will be talking about a better deal or no deal, and even if tariffs are an issue, that is more likely to tip voters to the LibDems or Labour than the Brexit Party. 6/4 is not tempting.

    Postal votes will be cast while May is PM.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.

    Other way round perhaps? There is a clear public interest, and there are no actual secrets divulged.
    1) What is the public interest?
    2) I'm quite sure that Ambassador despatches are classified information.

    BTW I'm a bit confused by this conversation about emails being marked "official - sensitive". I'm not sure that what was leaked were emails marked in such a way. More likely that they were leaked via email that was marked as "official - sensitive".

    ie. it was a classification put on by the leaker, not a classication of the leaks.

    If they were leaked by email the leaker might be easier to catch.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    What was the t/o?
    About 27% - very similar to the 29% in May when the Tories won by a landslide.
    It would be a real eye opener to compare the two marked registers to see how many people actually voted in both elections.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 25,474
    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,385
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    What was the t/o?
    About 27% - very similar to the 29% in May when the Tories won by a landslide.
    Presumably LDs didn't have a candidate last time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    Catching up on last night's TW, I see Portillo is now arguing that neither Tory nor Labour want a GE until after Brexit is resolved.

    Will HY tack to follow Portillo again?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,543
    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    Don't be silly, he's not in post yet...!

    Of course, for HYUFD it only works one way - apparently all the new "Tories under Boris" voters are just holding themselves back until the very moment of his elevation, whereas the "Tories without Johnson" voters have already noticed he's going to win and have left already.
    An extremely good point.

    See also announcing plans for future negotiations with the EU in the press and thinking the EU will not notice.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    What was the t/o?
    About 27% - very similar to the 29% in May when the Tories won by a landslide.
    Presumably LDs didn't have a candidate last time.
    The LibDems have not fought the ward since...drumroll....2007.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,543

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Locally. Which I appreciate is the topic under discussion.

    Nationally it will be better anyone even a lying incompetent twat than Jeremy Corbyn. And it will have traction.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,327
    notme2 said:

    The conviction was appalling. There was no enrichment. A case of bad judgement from the MP and a strong telling off. Causing a by-election is utterly ridiculous.

    Sticking up for expense cheat criminals, Clearly you have not studied the case
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    I think there is a strong possibility of them coming third behind TBP given the better understanding locally of the nature of the offense, his ERG membership and the shear audacity of standing again. Farage will have problems campaigning but if you are a diehard Tory leaver who is not going to vote for a convicted criminal where else can they go?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,138
    alex. said:

    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.

    Well it's not all that recent a development:

    https://tinyurl.com/y593fj7v

    British officials hope to influence Donald Trump by exploiting his character and inexperience in office, a secret memo reportedly from the UK’s top diplomat in the US suggests.

    The memo, seen by The Sunday Times, said: “The president-elect is above all an outsider and unknown quantity, whose campaign pronouncements may reveal his instincts, but will surely evolve and, particularly, be open to outside influence if pitched right.

    “Having, we believe, built better relationships with his team than have the rest of Washington diplomatic corps, we should be well placed to do this.”

    Downing Street said it did not comment on leaked documents.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,327

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Davis was also an ERG member and is happy with no deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    edited July 12
    notme2 said:

    The conviction was appalling. There was no enrichment. A case of bad judgement from the MP and a strong telling off. Causing a by-election is utterly ridiculous.

    Blame the recall of mps act which allows a petition for any expenses related offence. One recall petition failed so it's not the case that they will automatically succeed, so I dont see the problem given so many signed it here.

    For me its simple - he was convicted, and should be kicked out. Past convictions when standing is fine, but he committed an offence in office. Call it minor or a mistake, he was still convicted and even mistakes mean people should go sometimes.
  • The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    TOPPING said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    Don't be silly, he's not in post yet...!

    Of course, for HYUFD it only works one way - apparently all the new "Tories under Boris" voters are just holding themselves back until the very moment of his elevation, whereas the "Tories without Johnson" voters have already noticed he's going to win and have left already.
    An extremely good point.

    See also announcing plans for future negotiations with the EU in the press and thinking the EU will not notice.
    Thats one of the stupidest things about our approach over and over.
  • Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Another former Brexit stronghold backing an overwhelmingly remain party.

    It is time to recognise the wheels have come off the Brexit Bus with its lies and spin.

    No deal will destroy jobs and industry but look on the bright side, Blue Passports.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    IanB2 said:

    JackW said:

    Call that a bar chart .... Tsk

    The Tories should be ashamed of themselves for such a weak effort .... :innocent:

    Doing the LibDems a favour, making the 12k bar three quarters the size of their 20k one.
    Trying to spook BXP voters.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,327
    Streeter said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    He’s just a very naughty boy.
    HYUFD or Boris?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.

    Other way round perhaps? There is a clear public interest, and there are no actual secrets divulged.
    1) What is the public interest?
    2) I'm quite sure that Ambassador despatches are classified information.

    BTW I'm a bit confused by this conversation about emails being marked "official - sensitive". I'm not sure that what was leaked were emails marked in such a way. More likely that they were leaked via email that was marked as "official - sensitive".

    ie. it was a classification put on by the leaker, not a classication of the leaks.

    You miss the point, which is not about classification and automatic offences under the Act but that nothing that has been divulged was actually secret. The Mail might have had second thoughts about printing nuclear launch codes or the disposition of submarines but this was just a mish-mash of common knowledge and gossip.
    And how would a mish mash of common knowledge and gossip be in the public interest then? Why the need to publish diplomatic communications to reveal something mundane?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743
    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,327
    Davies had been in trouble before with the Commons authorities
    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/welsh-mp-been-ordered-repay-13723428
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    Don't be silly, he's not in post yet...!

    Of course, for HYUFD it only works one way - apparently all the new "Tories under Boris" voters are just holding themselves back until the very moment of his elevation, whereas the "Tories without Johnson" voters have already noticed he's going to win and have left already.
    An extremely good point.

    See also announcing plans for future negotiations with the EU in the press and thinking the EU will not notice.
    Thats one of the stupidest things about our approach over and over.
    Boris's position on no deal in the ITV debate made no sense - no deal was apparently going to be so harmless, because we are prepared, yet also so frightening to the EU (despite their being better prepared) that they would rush to give us a new deal to avoid the damage.

    It's a shame he wasn't picked up on the glaring contradiction
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,138
    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.

    Other way round perhaps? There is a clear public interest, and there are no actual secrets divulged.
    1) What is the public interest?
    2) I'm quite sure that Ambassador despatches are classified information.

    BTW I'm a bit confused by this conversation about emails being marked "official - sensitive". I'm not sure that what was leaked were emails marked in such a way. More likely that they were leaked via email that was marked as "official - sensitive".

    ie. it was a classification put on by the leaker, not a classication of the leaks.

    You miss the point, which is not about classification and automatic offences under the Act but that nothing that has been divulged was actually secret. The Mail might have had second thoughts about printing nuclear launch codes or the disposition of submarines but this was just a mish-mash of common knowledge and gossip.
    And how would a mish mash of common knowledge and gossip be in the public interest then? Why the need to publish diplomatic communications to reveal something mundane?
    Without a doubt the Mail on Sunday would have known printing the leaks would have consequences.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 19,234
    nichomar said:

    notme2 said:

    The conviction was appalling. There was no enrichment. A case of bad judgement from the MP and a strong telling off. Causing a by-election is utterly ridiculous.

    There was enrichment because he should have paid the overspend out of his own pocket. He chose to instead falsify two invoices so he could pas the overspend onto a different budget line. In fact to have done this rather than pay a few hundred pounds from his own pocket shows how stupid he is. Don’t try and spin this as an accounting error it was not it was FRAUD.
    You can argue the enrichment point either way. Nevertheless most employers would take a dim view of someone forging their own receipts to support an expenses claim. The receipts are being submitted as formal evidence of the (amount, nature and timing of the) expenditure, after all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.

    Other way round perhaps? There is a clear public interest, and there are no actual secrets divulged.
    1) What is the public interest?
    2) I'm quite sure that Ambassador despatches are classified information.

    BTW I'm a bit confused by this conversation about emails being marked "official - sensitive". I'm not sure that what was leaked were emails marked in such a way. More likely that they were leaked via email that was marked as "official - sensitive".

    ie. it was a classification put on by the leaker, not a classication of the leaks.

    You miss the point, which is not about classification and automatic offences under the Act but that nothing that has been divulged was actually secret. The Mail might have had second thoughts about printing nuclear launch codes or the disposition of submarines but this was just a mish-mash of common knowledge and gossip.
    And how would a mish mash of common knowledge and gossip be in the public interest then? Why the need to publish diplomatic communications to reveal something mundane?
    Without a doubt the Mail on Sunday would have known printing the leaks would have consequences.
    I agree, I'm just curious at the idea theres public interest to see this info even if it is apparently pretty mundane.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    One point about the Darroch affair, is that in the past i'm not sure it would have ever made the press. There was no UK public interest in publication, i'm not sure that even the tabloids wouldn't have said "thanks but not thanks" and handed the evidence over to the police.

    I don't understand why Oakeshott/the Mail aren't getting more scrutiny for their actions. They were not obliged to publish, and it was doing so that caused all the damage.

    Other way round perhaps? There is a clear public interest, and there are no actual secrets divulged.
    1) What is the public interest?
    2) I'm quite sure that Ambassador despatches are classified information.

    BTW I'm a bit confused by this conversation about emails being marked "official - sensitive". I'm not sure that what was leaked were emails marked in such a way. More likely that they were leaked via email that was marked as "official - sensitive".

    ie. it was a classification put on by the leaker, not a classication of the leaks.

    You miss the point, which is not about classification and automatic offences under the Act but that nothing that has been divulged was actually secret. The Mail might have had second thoughts about printing nuclear launch codes or the disposition of submarines but this was just a mish-mash of common knowledge and gossip.
    And how would a mish mash of common knowledge and gossip be in the public interest then? Why the need to publish diplomatic communications to reveal something mundane?
    Without a doubt the Mail on Sunday would have known printing the leaks would have consequences.
    Does anyone know why they did or was it just to sell papers?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    If the Tories comfortably beat the Brexit Party and keep it close with the LDs that will be a pretty good result for them. If they hold the seat against the LD by election machine that would be a triumph for new PM Boris
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743
    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    There seems little doubt that remain is gaining traction and the only hope for brexit is that some superficial changes are made that enables the WDA to pass with disaffected labour mps assistance
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 44,977
    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories comfortably beat the Brexit Party and keep it close with the LDs that will be a pretty good result for them. If they hold the seat against the LD by election machine that would be a triumph for new PM Boris

    Yes, fair enough.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,115

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Another former Brexit stronghold backing an overwhelmingly remain party.

    It is time to recognise the wheels have come off the Brexit Bus with its lies and spin.

    No deal will destroy jobs and industry but look on the bright side, Blue Passports.
    Some quick maths shows that the Tories previous vote here was over 71%, so the winning LibDem may have been a bit surprised with his majority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743
    Jennie Formby is attacking Tom Watson for his criticism of her following the Panorama programme as she is undergoing chemotheraphy.

    Really sad that she is using personal health to deflect from addressing the serious issues labour are facing
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540

    Streeter said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    He’s just a very naughty boy.
    HYUFD or Boris?
    Cheeky
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,138
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    If MPs don't like the thought of that, they know what they have to do.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Another former Brexit stronghold backing an overwhelmingly remain party.

    It is time to recognise the wheels have come off the Brexit Bus with its lies and spin.

    No deal will destroy jobs and industry but look on the bright side, Blue Passports.
    Maybe it will and maybe it wont but Remainers have spread so many lies and scare stories that have been proved false that many people do not believe the risks claimed about No Deal are true.
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 265
    nichomar said:

    notme2 said:

    The conviction was appalling. There was no enrichment. A case of bad judgement from the MP and a strong telling off. Causing a by-election is utterly ridiculous.

    There was enrichment because he should have paid the overspend out of his own pocket. He chose to instead falsify two invoices so he could pas the overspend onto a different budget line. In fact to have done this rather than pay a few hundred pounds from his own pocket shows how stupid he is. Don’t try and spin this as an accounting error it was not it was FRAUD.
    I'm sorry but you are wrong. You can read the facts from the BBC at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47667080

    There was no overspend and hence there was no enrichment. He could have claimed the entire amount from the Office Costs budget which had more than enough remaining to cover it. Or he could have got the photographer to create two invoices, one for the Office Costs budget and one for the Start Up budget. This was not fraud as is clear from the fact that he was not charged with fraud. He was convicted under the Section 10 of the Parliamentary Standards Act which is a much less serious offence.

    The conviction was not appalling. If he had been convicted of fraud that would have been wrong on the facts. But he was correctly convicted on one count of providing false or misleading information for allowances claims and one count of attempting to do so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    edited July 12

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    Last night I was knocking up in Chigwell Row where the Tories held the seat 344 votes to 288 for the LDs in a parish council by election and I spent a lot of time telling Brexit Party voters 'Boris is on the way' and it was a straight Tory v LD fight to get enough of them out to vote Tory
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 7,115

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Another former Brexit stronghold backing an overwhelmingly remain party.

    It is time to recognise the wheels have come off the Brexit Bus with its lies and spin.

    No deal will destroy jobs and industry but look on the bright side, Blue Passports.
    Maybe it will and maybe it wont but Remainers have spread so many lies and scare stories that have been proved false that many people do not believe the risks claimed about No Deal are true.
    Not so many people in Bridlington.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    A democrat who respects the will of the people Parliament has so far refused to respect by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,499

    nichomar said:

    notme2 said:

    The conviction was appalling. There was no enrichment. A case of bad judgement from the MP and a strong telling off. Causing a by-election is utterly ridiculous.

    There was enrichment because he should have paid the overspend out of his own pocket. He chose to instead falsify two invoices so he could pas the overspend onto a different budget line. In fact to have done this rather than pay a few hundred pounds from his own pocket shows how stupid he is. Don’t try and spin this as an accounting error it was not it was FRAUD.
    I'm sorry but you are wrong. You can read the facts from the BBC at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47667080

    There was no overspend and hence there was no enrichment. He could have claimed the entire amount from the Office Costs budget which had more than enough remaining to cover it. Or he could have got the photographer to create two invoices, one for the Office Costs budget and one for the Start Up budget. This was not fraud as is clear from the fact that he was not charged with fraud. He was convicted under the Section 10 of the Parliamentary Standards Act which is a much less serious offence.

    The conviction was not appalling. If he had been convicted of fraud that would have been wrong on the facts. But he was correctly convicted on one count of providing false or misleading information for allowances claims and one count of attempting to do so.
    He fiddled his expenses after his drafted in office assistant pointed out he had overspent on pictures/photographs and he would have to pay up the difference. He decided to spread the cost and forged receipts to pass it off on another budget line to avoid paying it out of his own pocket.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,128
    IanB2 said:

    The seemingly pointless arrows pointing at the Labour and minor party columns are odd.

    Is the idea to draw the attention of the undecided voter to the alternatives to the Lib Dems?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    Last night I was knocking up in Chigwell Row where the Tories held the seat 344 votes to 288 for the LDs in a parish council by elections and I spent a lot of time telling Brexit Party voters 'Boris is on the way' and it was a straight Tory v LD fight to get enough of them out to vote Tory
    The problem is that momentum is moving to remain and there are an increasing number of voters who see the Lib Dems as the one party who have been consistent in wanting to stop brexit and voters from both the conservatives and labour are turning to them.

    I also think that many labour voters now turning to the Lib Dems will be moving permanently as they turn their backs on the toxic leadership of the labour party

    Boris is not even beating Hunt in the preferred PM stakes with voters and this weeks disasterous PR for Boris over the Ambassador shows he cannot think on his feet

    He is not the Messiah and is a very long way from a majority
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,385
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    It may achieve Brexit, but the backlash will be extremely destructive of the Conservative party.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,731
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    So I take it that you don’t personally think there is much short term downside to the U.K. from no deal? (long term effects either way being irrelevant to an election in, er, November.

    And just to be clear, prorogue gets Parliament in late October will guarantee no deal, not your fantasy “deal or no deal Brexit”
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,955
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    A democrat who respects the will of the people Parliament has so far refused to respect by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal

    The will of the people as expressed in the 2017 general election is that there should not be a No Deal Brexit.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 815
    TOPPING said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Locally. Which I appreciate is the topic under discussion.

    Nationally it will be better anyone even a lying incompetent twat than Jeremy Corbyn. And it will have traction.
    Maybe, however many will regard Johnson's duplicity as even more unacceptable than Corbyn's ideologically driven ineptitude. It is the perfect 'between a rock and a hard place' dilemma.

    And as to Ydoethur's earlier assertion that Ystradgynlais may be a hotbed of Faragistas, I am not convinced. It has a welsh language comprehensive school for goodness sake! Notional Labourites if they don't stay will go PC or LD, and for this by-election they will almost all go LD.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 14,369

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Another former Brexit stronghold backing an overwhelmingly remain party.

    It is time to recognise the wheels have come off the Brexit Bus with its lies and spin.

    No deal will destroy jobs and industry but look on the bright side, Blue Passports.
    Maybe it will and maybe it wont but Remainers have spread so many lies and scare stories that have been proved false that many people do not believe the risks claimed about No Deal are true.
    Not so many people in Bridlington.
    LibDems making imbecilic extrapolations from local council byelection results has been happening for decades.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
    Shocking result for the conservatives and labour

    But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.

    I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah

    Last night I was knocking up in Chigwell Row where the Tories held the seat 344 votes to 288 for the LDs in a parish council by elections and I spent a lot of time telling Brexit Party voters 'Boris is on the way' and it was a straight Tory v LD fight to get enough of them out to vote Tory
    The problem is that momentum is moving to remain and there are an increasing number of voters who see the Lib Dems as the one party who have been consistent in wanting to stop brexit and voters from both the conservatives and labour are turning to them.

    I also think that many labour voters now turning to the Lib Dems will be moving permanently as they turn their backs on the toxic leadership of the labour party

    Boris is not even beating Hunt in the preferred PM stakes with voters and this weeks disasterous PR for Boris over the Ambassador shows he cannot think on his feet

    He is not the Messiah and is a very long way from a majority
    Nope, according to Comres a Boris led Tory Party gets a majority of 36, a Hunt or May led Tory Party sees a Corbyn minority government

  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,731
    edited July 12
    I wonder how many Tory MPs would vote for a General Election in the immediate aftermath of a no deal exit? Johnson might struggle to pass it even with Labour votes!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 37,771

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    A democrat who respects the will of the people Parliament has so far refused to respect by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal

    The will of the people as expressed in the 2017 general election is that there should not be a No Deal Brexit.

    But that there should be a Brexit. :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Another former Brexit stronghold backing an overwhelmingly remain party.

    It is time to recognise the wheels have come off the Brexit Bus with its lies and spin.

    No deal will destroy jobs and industry but look on the bright side, Blue Passports.
    Maybe it will and maybe it wont but Remainers have spread so many lies and scare stories that have been proved false that many people do not believe the risks claimed about No Deal are true.
    Not so many people in Bridlington.
    LibDems making imbecilic extrapolations from local council byelection results has been happening for decades.
    Yes, if you went on 2017 local council by election results Tim Farron would now be PM!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,128

    Quite a swing


    Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:

    LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7)
    CON: 26.6% (-44.5)
    YORK: 11.4% (+11.4)
    UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4)
    LAB: 4.4% (-24.5)
    IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1)
    IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5)
    IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Another former Brexit stronghold backing an overwhelmingly remain party.

    It is time to recognise the wheels have come off the Brexit Bus with its lies and spin.

    No deal will destroy jobs and industry but look on the bright side, Blue Passports.
    Some quick maths shows that the Tories previous vote here was over 71%, so the winning LibDem may have been a bit surprised with his majority.
    Does anyone know the area? The farmers around here (south east) have really swung against Brexit - but they are so few in number they make no difference at all to any election.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,898
    I
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    A democrat who respects the will of the people Parliament has so far refused to respect by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal
    A fantasy. HMQ will Not prorogue Parliament in those circumstances. There will be a VONC if it is tried.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Any attempt to do that will see a constitutional crisis and the end of the conservative party.

    Last nights Lib Dem victory would turn into a national landslide for them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    alex. said:

    I wonder how many Tory MPs would vote for a General Election in the immediate aftermath of a no deal exit? Johnson might struggle to pass it even with Labour votes!

    Brexit will have been delivered which is the main task for Boris
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,128
    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories comfortably beat the Brexit Party and keep it close with the LDs that will be a pretty good result for them. If they hold the seat against the LD by election machine that would be a triumph for new PM Boris

    If
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 18,543
    edited July 12

    TOPPING said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Locally. Which I appreciate is the topic under discussion.

    Nationally it will be better anyone even a lying incompetent twat than Jeremy Corbyn. And it will have traction.
    Maybe, however many will regard Johnson's duplicity as even more unacceptable than Corbyn's ideologically driven ineptitude. It is the perfect 'between a rock and a hard place' dilemma.

    And as to Ydoethur's earlier assertion that Ystradgynlais may be a hotbed of Faragistas, I am not convinced. It has a welsh language comprehensive school for goodness sake! Notional Labourites if they don't stay will go PC or LD, and for this by-election they will almost all go LD.
    Agree. But for me and I suspect many others, to vote for anti-semite Corbyn would be, to use I suppose the appropriate term, beyond the pale.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 57,540
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    So I take it that you don’t personally think there is much short term downside to the U.K. from no deal? (long term effects either way being irrelevant to an election in, er, November.

    And just to be clear, prorogue gets Parliament in late October will guarantee no deal, not your fantasy “deal or no deal Brexit”
    Parliament has so far refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement Boris voted for at MV3 so if it has to be No Deal to deliver Brexit so be it.

    Having delivered Brexit even with No Deal and out of the EU orbit we can then start negotiating for a Canada style FTA with the EU and FTAs with the rest of the world until they are willing to do so
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 885
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    A democrat who respects the will of the people Parliament has so far refused to respect by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal
    The referendum was remain vs leave with a very good deal, negotiated quickly. At the GE no deal lost by 98% to <2%. It has never been supported by the majority of the country, any democrat knows it has no mandate.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,308
    edited July 12
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    A democrat who respects the will of the people Parliament has so far refused to respect by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal
    No, parliament overall has respected the results of the GE2017 vote and manifesto lines, which has led inevitably to deadlock between 3 mutually opposed Brexit visions.

    The people democratically voted for this. Are you suggesting they didn't know what they were voting for?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,310
    Looking forward to Boris breaking all of his promises, and then reading the 5000 RPM spin from @HYUFD.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 29,955
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    A democrat who respects the will of the people Parliament has so far refused to respect by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal

    The will of the people as expressed in the 2017 general election is that there should not be a No Deal Brexit.

    But that there should be a Brexit. :)

    Indeed - and a large majority in the country would support BINO. But the Tory right won’t. And as we know with the Tories party always comes before country.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 24,743
    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    The Conservatives' message is essentially "better a convict than a Remainer". It'll be a good test of just how monomaniac Leavers are.

    Whatever the result is leavers and sanity are mutually exclusive.
    Marc Francois just now on sky shooting down a government minister for telling the country that many thousands of jobs are at risk if no deal him ‘he’s a remainer.......I’m going to stay up all night on 31/10 to watch the new dawn breaking on our free country’ delusional. I have just had to delete my opinion of him as I don’t use language like that.
    I watched that and despaired.

    He and other ERG members are going to be very angry when the HOC and public opinion rejects his extreme no deal armageddon
    If we dont leave (and the choices now seem to be no deal or remain) he will assume the public will be so angry about it, and many millions will. But a remain party will probably win an election as the tories fall to pieces, so it'll be odd that he will no doubt insist the majority want no deal
    From what I now understand the Boris team will prorogue Parliament in late October to force through Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st if necessary as a last resort and prepare for a November general election shortly after to then get a confirmatory mandate for it having delivered Brexit
    Disgraceful, how can any democrat support such behavior?
    It may achieve Brexit, but the backlash will be extremely destructive of the Conservative party.
    I and many thousands would leave the party in utter disgust
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 885
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    I wonder how many Tory MPs would vote for a General Election in the immediate aftermath of a no deal exit? Johnson might struggle to pass it even with Labour votes!

    Brexit will have been delivered which is the main task for Boris
    How do you think the hundreds of thousands of people who lose their jobs as a result of this nonsense will vote for the next decade or two?
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