Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
We aren't "continually" devaluing, it is a one-off hit. And the economy isn't growing much more slowly.
Try dealing with reality rather than pretence.
Touching that you think the bottom has been reached and that there are no signs of slowdown. One can only hope your career is well removed from the world of personal finance.
Try using some real macroeconomic statistics rather than the fictions and make believe that keeps getting thrown around by your side.
It's very sad to hear Tory supporters spout your nonsense - once Corbyn has gone you will receive the reckoning you deserve.
The idea we should use macroeconomic statistics is nonsense? Interesting.
We keep getting your fairytale prognostications of doom. Corbyn wants to make us like Venezuela [worse economy than ours], Brexiteers want to make us like Canada [better economy than ours]. One is a nonsense, the other is not.
On Bridlington, clearly it's a poor result for both Labour and the Conservatives, and a very impressive one for the Lib Dems.
But I would be wary of inferring too much from the swings which (a) are from May 2019 - how much has genuinely changed since then? and (b) are based on a three-seat election in which there were just 3 Conservative candidates and 1 Labour one, which would tend to inflate the Conservatives vote above and beyond, as they will have picked up some Labour "second preferences". And of course, there was no Lib Dem candidate at all.
May 2019 result
Con 2101 Con 2050 Con 1929 Lab 855
Yesterday's by-election
Lib Dem 1308 Con 815 UKIP 349 Yorks 196 Lab 135 Ind 125 Ind 76 Ind 58
If we're going to look at local by-elections for a steer (and I think we should) we have to do so intelligently, and by looking at aggregate trends, not the seemingly startling outliers.
Indeed. All I think is that it's more evidence that there's a clear path for remain parties in Brexity areas. Something that's overlooked as a) it doesn't fit the narrative of salt of the earth Brexit Britain versus a metropolitan elite, and b) Because neither the Tories or Labour can pursue it as a strategy, the Tories as obviously they are wedded to Brexit, Labour because they are wedded to Corbyn. He can't build a coalition of voters that includes socially liberal remainer conservatives and centrist voters, as frankly, they believe he's as appalling as Brexit.
I’m actually mid-20s with very little equity in a 30 year first time buyer mortgage.
However holidays are much more expensive, salary is stagnant well below inflation, and any luxury items I might want to buy are getting more and more expensive by the day.
And Petrol is pushing nearly the most expensive I’ve ever experienced in my adult life.
Great times to be young.
Hold on to the mortgage. It is a very good investment. In my experience a good predictor of late-life prosperity is whether one had purchased a property when young. It is hard but it gets better, I assure you.
The only problem with your advice is this is true for people whoe are now over 60, but you can't assume that this will be true for those retiring in 30 years time.
Edit: P.S. For some Reason Vanilla thinks that it was Philip Tompson who wrote the comment, but actually it was Viewcode. Wierd.
On Bridlington, clearly it's a poor result for both Labour and the Conservatives, and a very impressive one for the Lib Dems.
But I would be wary of inferring too much from the swings which (a) are from May 2019 - how much has genuinely changed since then? and (b) are based on a three-seat election in which there were just 3 Conservative candidates and 1 Labour one, which would tend to inflate the Conservatives vote above and beyond, as they will have picked up some Labour "second preferences". And of course, there was no Lib Dem candidate at all.
May 2019 result
Con 2101 Con 2050 Con 1929 Lab 855
Yesterday's by-election
Lib Dem 1308 Con 815 UKIP 349 Yorks 196 Lab 135 Ind 125 Ind 76 Ind 58
If we're going to look at local by-elections for a steer (and I think we should) we have to do so intelligently, and by looking at aggregate trends, not the seemingly startling outliers.
Indeed - both the Tory and Labour vote shares were artificially high at the previous election due to no other candidates appearing on the ballot paper. We hear the same rather ignorant nonsense from commentators seeking to point out how the two party vote share has slumped from the 95% plus seen at the General Elections of 1951 and 1955 - totally ignoring the fact that most seats at both those elections saw straight fights between Tory and Labour - even the Liberals failed to contest well over 80% of constituencies.
I’m actually mid-20s with very little equity in a 30 year first time buyer mortgage.
However holidays are much more expensive, salary is stagnant well below inflation, and any luxury items I might want to buy are getting more and more expensive by the day.
And Petrol is pushing nearly the most expensive I’ve ever experienced in my adult life.
Great times to be young.
Hold on to the mortgage. It is a very good investment. In my experience a good predictor of late-life prosperity is whether one had purchased a property when young. It is hard but it gets better, I assure you.
The only problem with your advice is this is true for people whoe are now over 60, but you can't assume that this will be true for those retiring in 30 years time.
Houses should go up long term. They've stagnated in real terms since ~ 2008 too outwith Laaaaaaandon.
What are you talking about? The inflation rate in the UK at the minute is 2.0% - EXACTLY the Target Rate for inflation. Not 30%.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the referendum in 2016, so an annual rate of inflation comparing prices in 2019 to 2018 will not measure any of the effect of the weakening in the exchange rate.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
It is odd though that the fall in Sterling after the referendum was significantly greater than the subsequent blip in inflation. The most obvious cause is that those who were selling us the goods we import took a hit on their margins but you would have expected them to look to restore those margins over time.
Obviously you get extreme cases of hyper inflation but once again, as with exports and imports, the causation/correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic inflation/trade has proven to be a great deal more elastic than the theory would indicate.
FWIW, when looking to replace my car I found Audis significantly more expensive than the model I was looking to replace had been. So I bought a Jag instead (well, that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it).
David, To counter that I found great deal on Audi and went for that recently rather than Jaguar or my normal BMW. Perhaps I was just lucky , mind you still expensive even with a good discount.
What did you get? I had had a series of A4s and their cost seemed to have gone from about £22k to £30k+. Nice cars but not worth that. It seemed to reflect the exchange rate changes more than general inflation though.
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
We aren't "continually" devaluing, it is a one-off hit. And the economy isn't growing much more slowly.
Try dealing with reality rather than pretence.
Let me know what you think the trend is on this 5-yr graph.
Bridlington North (East Riding of Yorkshire) result:
LDEM: 42.7% (+42.7) CON: 26.6% (-44.5) YORK: 11.4% (+11.4) UKIP: 6.4% (+6.4) LAB: 4.4% (-24.5) IND (Dixon): 4.1% (+4.1) IND (Robson): 2.5% (+2.5) IND (Milns): 1.9% (+1.9)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Even leave supporting pensioners are deserting the Tories...
Shocking result for the conservatives and labour
But this cannot be right, Hyufd tells us Boris is going to achieve a majority.
I warned him yesterday that Boris is no Messiah
Last night I was knocking up in Chigwell Row where the Tories held the seat 344 votes to 288 for the LDs in a parish council by elections and I spent a lot of time telling Brexit Party voters 'Boris is on the way' and it was a straight Tory v LD fight to get enough of them out to vote Tory
The problem is that momentum is moving to remain and there are an increasing number of voters who see the Lib Dems as the one party who have been consistent in wanting to stop brexit and voters from both the conservatives and labour are turning to them.
I also think that many labour voters now turning to the Lib Dems will be moving permanently as they turn their backs on the toxic leadership of the labour party
Boris is not even beating Hunt in the preferred PM stakes with voters and this weeks disasterous PR for Boris over the Ambassador shows he cannot think on his feet
He is not the Messiah and is a very long way from a majority
I believe HYUFD has a point that Brexit/Tories combined numbers are interchangeable either way. What I cannot factor into the equation is how many Tories would peel off and vote LD for one time only in order to see the back of Brexit and Johnsin before returning to the fold once the dust had settled.
The question is, would you do that, possibly saving your party for the longer term?
Commentators assumed prior to the 2017 election that 2015 UKIP voters would shift en masse to the Tories. They were wrong - which is why people such as Norman Lamb comfortably survived the withdrawal of the UKIP candidate.
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
We aren't "continually" devaluing, it is a one-off hit. And the economy isn't growing much more slowly.
Try dealing with reality rather than pretence.
Let me know what you think the trend is on this 5-yr graph.
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
We aren't "continually" devaluing, it is a one-off hit. And the economy isn't growing much more slowly.
Try dealing with reality rather than pretence.
Let me know what you think the trend is on this 5-yr graph.
If I was looking for evidence of us having a weaker position in trade negotiations with the US post Brexit I would be a lot more interested in this than whether my chicken has been washed the same way as my lettuce: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48947922
I think that there is a strong desire on the part of the Treasury at least to follow France on this. Will we be brave enough to follow suit?
If I was looking for evidence of us having a weaker position in trade negotiations with the US post Brexit I would be a lot more interested in this than whether my chicken has been washed the same way as my lettuce: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48947922
I think that there is a strong desire on the part of the Treasury at least to follow France on this. Will we be brave enough to follow suit?
Shall we head over to the other thread David? I will if you do.
Imports from the EU are paid for with sterling but the price is converted to sterling according the the exchange rate. With a 30% fall either the importer or consumer pays the price - if the former fails to pass it on it affects their profits.
But the importer will have a lot of cost denominated in sterling anyway so it will have a much smaller impact than you claim. And exporters will make more profit which they can then pass on to their employees or pensions etc
Ah so that explains why the economy has begun to grow much more slowly over the past few months. You simply cannot credibly pretend that cintinually devaluing your currency is sensible economics if you expect people to take you seriously.
We aren't "continually" devaluing, it is a one-off hit. And the economy isn't growing much more slowly.
Try dealing with reality rather than pretence.
Let me know what you think the trend is on this 5-yr graph.
The owner of a currency in secular decline is perhaps not best advised to try to "strike out alone".
When we went to Germany in 1971 the official (army) rate of exchange was 7.4DM to the £. Lawson tried to keep us at 3. Our currency has been falling a long time. As with Italy (whose economy has gone tits up since it lost that option) the evidence of actual damage from this is, well, modest.
What it suggests to me, along with our horrendous trade deficit with the EU is that our current arrangements (and domestic policies) are not working to our advantage and we need to try something else.
If I was looking for evidence of us having a weaker position in trade negotiations with the US post Brexit I would be a lot more interested in this than whether my chicken has been washed the same way as my lettuce: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48947922
I think that there is a strong desire on the part of the Treasury at least to follow France on this. Will we be brave enough to follow suit?
Shall we head over to the other thread David? I will if you do.
On Bridlington, clearly it's a poor result for both Labour and the Conservatives, and a very impressive one for the Lib Dems. But I would be wary of inferring too much from the swings which (a) are from May 2019 - how much has genuinely changed since then? and (b) are based on a three-seat election in which there were just 3 Conservative candidates and 1 Labour one, which would tend to inflate the Conservatives vote above and beyond, as they will have picked up some Labour "second preferences". And of course, there was no Lib Dem candidate at all.May 2019 result
Con 2101 Con 2050 Con 1929 Lab 855
Yesterday's by-election
Lib Dem 1308 Con 815 UKIP 349 Yorks 196 Lab 135 Ind 125 Ind 76 Ind 58
If we're going to look at local by-elections for a steer (and I think we should) we have to do so intelligently, and by looking at aggregate trends, not the seemingly startling outliers.
All this morning we have heard from Conservative posters telling other Conservative posters that they ought to go off an join the Lib Dems. I expect that, somehow, the good electors of Bridlington were just one day head of that good advice.
What are you talking about? The inflation rate in the UK at the minute is 2.0% - EXACTLY the Target Rate for inflation. Not 30%.
The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the referendum in 2016, so an annual rate of inflation comparing prices in 2019 to 2018 will not measure any of the effect of the weakening in the exchange rate.
To do that you would want to look at inflation in 2017. I don't know if I've found the correct figure, but 3.6% is higher than 2%, and it seems reasonable that the rate would have been higher for the proportion of goods imported compared to those that are not.
It is odd though that the fall in Sterling after the referendum was significantly greater than the subsequent blip in inflation. The most obvious cause is that those who were selling us the goods we import took a hit on their margins but you would have expected them to look to restore those margins over time.
Obviously you get extreme cases of hyper inflation but once again, as with exports and imports, the causation/correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic inflation/trade has proven to be a great deal more elastic than the theory would indicate.
FWIW, when looking to replace my car I found Audis significantly more expensive than the model I was looking to replace had been. So I bought a Jag instead (well, that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it).
David, To counter that I found great deal on Audi and went for that recently rather than Jaguar or my normal BMW. Perhaps I was just lucky , mind you still expensive even with a good discount.
What did you get? I had had a series of A4s and their cost seemed to have gone from about £22k to £30k+. Nice cars but not worth that. It seemed to reflect the exchange rate changes more than general inflation though.
It was a Q5 S Line TDI40, took all the bells & whistles , everything but sunroof. Very nice to drive and can potter along on soft suspension or in sports mode etc. The auto DSG box is incredible.
Comments
We keep getting your fairytale prognostications of doom. Corbyn wants to make us like Venezuela [worse economy than ours], Brexiteers want to make us like Canada [better economy than ours]. One is a nonsense, the other is not.
Edit: P.S. For some Reason Vanilla thinks that it was Philip Tompson who wrote the comment, but actually it was Viewcode. Wierd.
https://xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=5Y
https://xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=10Y
The owner of a currency in secular decline is perhaps not best advised to try to "strike out alone".
I think that there is a strong desire on the part of the Treasury at least to follow France on this. Will we be brave enough to follow suit?
What it suggests to me, along with our horrendous trade deficit with the EU is that our current arrangements (and domestic policies) are not working to our advantage and we need to try something else.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.160326197