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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LA

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LAB and the Greens

If LAB had been doing better at recent elections then you might say that Survation has got this right. But Corbyn’s party had a miserable set of locals in May followed up by dreadful Euro elections three weeks later when they slipped down to just 13.6% and could not even maintain position as top party in London. They did, of course, hold Peterborough in June but with a share down 17% on GE2017.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432
    edited July 12
    Squeaky bum time for Boris if he really is planning a snap election.

    Ditto Corbyn.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    edited July 12
    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    And even less a full set of candidates that have a chance of winning. FPTP is a cruel mistress to the Lib Dems, but a full-on Miss Whiplash as far as the Greens are concerned.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Greens had 467 last time, compared to say 629 for LDs.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    Westminster voting intention: CON: 28% (+2) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 18% (+1) BREX: 14% (-4) GRN: 6% (-) via @BMGResearch, 02 - 05 Jul Chgs. w/ 07 Jun

    Thats the one HYUFD will use until a better one comes along !!!!
    I think he will duck this one too. It will not give the Johnson led Tories 350 seats.
    See next but one post
    No pollsters tonight have hypothetical Boris figures, they are all based on May as leader, as Comres has shown that makes a big difference

    Predictable response, indeed other posters predicted it
    The average voter does not spend hours studying Tory members polls, as far as they are concerned May is still Tory leader and Hunt could well succeed her.

    Unless and until Boris is actually elected Tory leader any full Boris bounce will not filter through
    You are totally predictable and blinkered
    For once I agree with HYUFD. As far as non political geeks are concerned the PM is May. Boris is just a maybe no more than that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    The remain alliance will have a full slate next time
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    OT. £900,000 One careful owner..........

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48942411
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,694
    edited July 12

    Paging HYUFD:

    Cynical and dishonest from Boris.

    Then again, maybe that's what's needed to break the logjam.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,793
    PB Tory Shit your pants poll

    NEW: General Election voting intention in England, Scotland and Wales, 10th - 11th July 2019:

    LAB 29% (+3), CON 23% (-1), BXP 20% (nc), LD 19% (nc), SNP 4% (+1), GRN 3% (-2), OTH 2% (-1)

    (changes w/ 19th - 20th June 2019)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    Westminster voting intention: CON: 28% (+2) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 18% (+1) BREX: 14% (-4) GRN: 6% (-) via @BMGResearch, 02 - 05 Jul Chgs. w/ 07 Jun

    Thats the one HYUFD will use until a better one comes along !!!!
    I think he will duck this one too. It will not give the Johnson led Tories 350 seats.
    See next but one post
    No pollsters tonight have hypothetical Boris figures, they are all based on May as leader, as Comres has shown that makes a big difference

    Predictable response, indeed other posters predicted it
    The average voter does not spend hours studying Tory members polls, as far as they are concerned May is still Tory leader and Hunt could well succeed her.

    Unless and until Boris is actually elected Tory leader any full Boris bounce will not filter through
    You are totally predictable and blinkered
    For once I agree with HYUFD. As far as non political geeks are concerned the PM is May. Boris is just a maybe no more than that.
    Is that really the first time you agree with HYUFD
  • PB Tory Shit your pants poll

    NEW: General Election voting intention in England, Scotland and Wales, 10th - 11th July 2019:

    LAB 29% (+3), CON 23% (-1), BXP 20% (nc), LD 19% (nc), SNP 4% (+1), GRN 3% (-2), OTH 2% (-1)

    (changes w/ 19th - 20th June 2019)

    Er, did you read the article at the top of the thread?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520

    PB Tory Shit your pants poll

    NEW: General Election voting intention in England, Scotland and Wales, 10th - 11th July 2019:

    LAB 29% (+3), CON 23% (-1), BXP 20% (nc), LD 19% (nc), SNP 4% (+1), GRN 3% (-2), OTH 2% (-1)

    (changes w/ 19th - 20th June 2019)

    No need to debase your argument BJO with unnecessary language
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,359
    Andrew said:

    Paging HYUFD:

    Cynical and dishonest from Boris.

    Then again, maybe that's what's needed to break the logjam.
    Does he really gain 20 Labour rebels without losing any MV3 Tories? Not convinced.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120
    IanB2 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    The remain alliance will have a full slate next time
    Yes, but they face a seat-by-seat choice of standing both a Green and a Lib Dem, plus PC where relevant (and losing effective votes due to the split) and standing just one (and losing votes due the fact that the parties aren't totally interchangeable).

    The obvious tactical move is option A. The problem with that is that the number of seats the Greens can legitimately say they have both a better shot than the Lib Dems, and a material chance of winning, is in the low single digits, and possibly exactly one. The quesion then becomes what's the point of the Greens if they've spent two consecutive GEs mostly campaigning for other parties.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 1,109
    edited July 12

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    How many Green voters on the ground would identify themselves as "eco-socialists"? Not members or activists, but the much wider group of people who put the Xs in boxes? Most, I strongly suspect, just think of themselves as normal people who are particularly concerned about climate change and other environmental issues. This "eco-socialist" stuff is really niche outside highly political circles.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816
    edited July 12

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    Eco-social democrats do, however... I say writing as one. And the Greens are not principally a socialist party.

    If Jo Swinson becomes Lib Dem leader, I suspect (based on hints I've picked up) that we will see a lot more LD/Green co-operation.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    Westminster voting intention: CON: 28% (+2) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 18% (+1) BREX: 14% (-4) GRN: 6% (-) via @BMGResearch, 02 - 05 Jul Chgs. w/ 07 Jun

    Thats the one HYUFD will use until a better one comes along !!!!
    I think he will duck this one too. It will not give the Johnson led Tories 350 seats.
    See next but one post
    No pollsters tonight have hypothetical Boris figures, they are all based on May as leader, as Comres has shown that makes a big difference

    Predictable response, indeed other posters predicted it
    The average voter does not spend hours studying Tory members polls, as far as they are concerned May is still Tory leader and Hunt could well succeed her.

    Unless and until Boris is actually elected Tory leader any full Boris bounce will not filter through
    You are totally predictable and blinkered
    For once I agree with HYUFD. As far as non political geeks are concerned the PM is May. Boris is just a maybe no more than that.
    Is that really the first time you agree with HYUFD
    No but its extremely rare I do.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    edited July 12
    Pro_Rata said:

    Andrew said:

    Paging HYUFD:

    Cynical and dishonest from Boris.

    Then again, maybe that's what's needed to break the logjam.
    Does he really gain 20 Labour rebels without losing any MV3 Tories? Not convinced.
    I have long since thought Boris strategy is to get elected, achieve a cosmetic change to the PD, and then pass the WDA with at least the 26 labour members who have already confirmed their support and even before Stephen Kinnock demanded it of Corbyn last week, so as to enable the agenda to move on to domestic policy much wanted, especially by labour
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954
    Endillion said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    The remain alliance will have a full slate next time
    Yes, but they face a seat-by-seat choice of standing both a Green and a Lib Dem, plus PC where relevant (and losing effective votes due to the split) and standing just one (and losing votes due the fact that the parties aren't totally interchangeable).

    The obvious tactical move is option A. The problem with that is that the number of seats the Greens can legitimately say they have both a better shot than the Lib Dems, and a material chance of winning, is in the low single digits, and possibly exactly one. The quesion then becomes what's the point of the Greens if they've spent two consecutive GEs mostly campaigning for other parties.
    Brexit might have become the only issue to fixate the LibDems these days, but it is a second order issue for the Greens. They will lose members rapidly if they become distracted by Brexit mania instead of focusing on the better future our planet deserves.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Pro_Rata said:

    Andrew said:

    Paging HYUFD:

    Cynical and dishonest from Boris.

    Then again, maybe that's what's needed to break the logjam.
    Does he really gain 20 Labour rebels without losing any MV3 Tories? Not convinced.
    I have long since thought Boris strategy is to get elected, achieve a cosmetic change to the PD, and then pass the WDA with at least the 26 labour members who have already confirmed their support and even before Stephen Kinnock demanded it of Corbyn last week, so as to enable the agenda to move on to domestic policy much wanted, especially by labour
    It may work. I think sufficient MPs probably want this over and done with now and with May gone and a sufficient change it could work. Get real movement on the backstop and it will work.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,162
    edited July 12

    PB Tory Shit your pants poll

    NEW: General Election voting intention in England, Scotland and Wales, 10th - 11th July 2019:

    LAB 29% (+3), CON 23% (-1), BXP 20% (nc), LD 19% (nc), SNP 4% (+1), GRN 3% (-2), OTH 2% (-1)

    (changes w/ 19th - 20th June 2019)

    Con are pretty much out of thre game while they have their leadership contest but even when Boris is elected we shouldn't expect an immediate switch from Brexit to Con.

    Con will have to deliver Brexit before they get much of that 20% back.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,359
    Endillion said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    The remain alliance will have a full slate next time
    Yes, but they face a seat-by-seat choice of standing both a Green and a Lib Dem, plus PC where relevant (and losing effective votes due to the split) and standing just one (and losing votes due the fact that the parties aren't totally interchangeable).

    The obvious tactical move is option A. The problem with that is that the number of seats the Greens can legitimately say they have both a better shot than the Lib Dems, and a material chance of winning, is in the low single digits, and possibly exactly one. The quesion then becomes what's the point of the Greens if they've spent two consecutive GEs mostly campaigning for other parties.
    Realistically, Alliance would work best with the following split:

    Green 25 odd
    PC around 10
    LD well north of 200 (poss Inc 2/3 Scottish)
    poss SNP 10 (mainly SNP / Con)??
    Inds a few
    contested, the rest



  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    GIN1138 said:

    PB Tory Shit your pants poll

    NEW: General Election voting intention in England, Scotland and Wales, 10th - 11th July 2019:

    LAB 29% (+3), CON 23% (-1), BXP 20% (nc), LD 19% (nc), SNP 4% (+1), GRN 3% (-2), OTH 2% (-1)

    (changes w/ 19th - 20th June 2019)

    Con are pretty much out of thre game while they have their leadership contest but even when Boris is elected we should expect an immediate switch from Brexit to Con.

    Con will have to deliver Brexit before they get much of that 20% back.
    Yes I think polls and hypothetical polls are pretty meaningless right now.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    How many Green voters on the ground would identify themselves as "eco-socialists"? Not members or activists, but the much wider group of people who put the Xs in boxes? Most, I strongly suspect, just think of themselves as normal people who are particularly concerned about climate change and other environmental issues. This "eco-socialist" stuff is really niche outside highly political circles.
    People may not use the label, but most Greens I have encountered are lefties who prioritise the environment. People like me, but in a different party, or voting for a different party. Or in some cases, more lefty, more committed and with a multitude of hair colours.

    I agree, some are more centrist in their non-environmental viewpoint, but this type of soft-green voter is really a bonus for the Green Party, as they are pretty much LibDems doing a spot of political eco-tourism.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    Roger said:

    OT. £900,000 One careful owner..........

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48942411

    I had no idea that Tommy Robinson had quite so many criminal convictions.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954
    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. £900,000 One careful owner..........

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48942411

    I had no idea that Tommy Robinson had quite so many criminal convictions.
    And I thought he lived in a terraced house in Luton.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,441

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    Eco-social democrats do, however... I say writing as one. And the Greens are not principally a socialist party.

    If Jo Swinson becomes Lib Dem leader, I suspect (based on hints I've picked up) that we will see a lot more LD/Green co-operation.
    Agreed. Expect a lot more working together and one party standing when the other is in with a shout.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,368
    GIN1138 said:

    PB Tory Shit your pants poll

    NEW: General Election voting intention in England, Scotland and Wales, 10th - 11th July 2019:

    LAB 29% (+3), CON 23% (-1), BXP 20% (nc), LD 19% (nc), SNP 4% (+1), GRN 3% (-2), OTH 2% (-1)

    (changes w/ 19th - 20th June 2019)

    Con are pretty much out of thre game while they have their leadership contest but even when Boris is elected we shouldn't expect an immediate switch from Brexit to Con.

    Con will have to deliver Brexit before they get much of that 20% back.
    That's one of those things that sound so obvious you don't really doubt it. But would delivering Brexit necessarily give the Tories a boost? Logically it should. But how often does logic work in politics?
  • Endillion said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    The remain alliance will have a full slate next time
    Yes, but they face a seat-by-seat choice of standing both a Green and a Lib Dem, plus PC where relevant (and losing effective votes due to the split) and standing just one (and losing votes due the fact that the parties aren't totally interchangeable).

    The obvious tactical move is option A. The problem with that is that the number of seats the Greens can legitimately say they have both a better shot than the Lib Dems, and a material chance of winning, is in the low single digits, and possibly exactly one. The quesion then becomes what's the point of the Greens if they've spent two consecutive GEs mostly campaigning for other parties.
    They had a dire election in 2017, but I suspect Corbyn has become MUCH less attractive for broadly pro-European, environmental types, particularly students. So not unreasonable also to look at where they were doing well in 2015.

    They'd make a reasonable case in a dozen places where they have a decent local authority base. And why have more than one per region necessarily? Even one gain is doubling representation in Commons.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,813
    edited July 12

    Endillion said:

    IanB2 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    The remain alliance will have a full slate next time
    Yes, but they face a seat-by-seat choice of standing both a Green and a Lib Dem, plus PC where relevant (and losing effective votes due to the split) and standing just one (and losing votes due the fact that the parties aren't totally interchangeable).

    The obvious tactical move is option A. The problem with that is that the number of seats the Greens can legitimately say they have both a better shot than the Lib Dems, and a material chance of winning, is in the low single digits, and possibly exactly one. The quesion then becomes what's the point of the Greens if they've spent two consecutive GEs mostly campaigning for other parties.
    Brexit might have become the only issue to fixate the LibDems these days, but it is a second order issue for the Greens. They will lose members rapidly if they become distracted by Brexit mania instead of focusing on the better future our planet deserves.
    Totally agree.
    However I still think there is also a lingering thought , that when push comes to shuff the Lib Dems would back the Tories.
    As they have on the City council of York.and the previous coalition government.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    edited July 12

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Greens had 467 last time, compared to say 629 for LDs.
    The Scottish Green Party fielded only three candidates at the last UK general election, out of 59 Scottish seats.

    Green results GE2017:
    Edinburgh North and Leith: 3%, 5th place (SNP hold)
    Falkirk: 2%, 5th place (SNP hold)
    Glasgow North: 10%, 4th place (SNP hold)

    https://www.scotsman.com/news-2-15012/analysis-why-are-the-greens-standing-so-few-candidates-at-the-election-1-4442415
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,757
    Anyone who takes anything from polls, especially at this times should exercise extreme caution....
  • The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    How many Green voters on the ground would identify themselves as "eco-socialists"? Not members or activists, but the much wider group of people who put the Xs in boxes? Most, I strongly suspect, just think of themselves as normal people who are particularly concerned about climate change and other environmental issues. This "eco-socialist" stuff is really niche outside highly political circles.
    People may not use the label, but most Greens I have encountered are lefties who prioritise the environment. People like me, but in a different party, or voting for a different party. Or in some cases, more lefty, more committed and with a multitude of hair colours.

    I agree, some are more centrist in their non-environmental viewpoint, but this type of soft-green voter is really a bonus for the Green Party, as they are pretty much LibDems doing a spot of political eco-tourism.
    I think you MAY be talking about "Greens" in terms of members/activists. If you think about this May/June, when they did well, who are the people who voted for them who hadn't previously done so? In my experience of canvassing, a lot are broadly protest voting centrist concerned over extremism, Brexit sucking oxygen out of debate (especially on climate change) and so on.

    A few years ago, you got people saying they'd vote Green as the only "real" left wing choice. But they went to Labour under Corbyn largely,
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 417

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    How many Green voters on the ground would identify themselves as "eco-socialists"? Not members or activists, but the much wider group of people who put the Xs in boxes? Most, I strongly suspect, just think of themselves as normal people who are particularly concerned about climate change and other environmental issues. This "eco-socialist" stuff is really niche outside highly political circles.
    People may not use the label, but most Greens I have encountered are lefties who prioritise the environment. People like me, but in a different party, or voting for a different party. Or in some cases, more lefty, more committed and with a multitude of hair colours.

    I agree, some are more centrist in their non-environmental viewpoint, but this type of soft-green voter is really a bonus for the Green Party, as they are pretty much LibDems doing a spot of political eco-tourism.
    I think you're absolutely right. The idea that votes can just be transferred between Lib Dems and Greens (or vice versa) is pure fantasy. There are plenty of us in the Lib Dems who think the Greens are too socialist or too authoritarian or both - my own view is that they're certainly not liberal. I'm sure, equally, there are plenty of Greens who think we're way too right-wing and/or Tory-lite in the Lib Dems. Just because we broadly agree on Remain and have some common ground on some environmental issues doesn't point to any kind of natural alliance. If I lived in a constituency where there wasn't a Lib Dem candidate then I'd be an order of magnitude more likely to abstain than lend my vote to the Greens.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,816
    It may be that Youov is (for some unknown reason) a better guide for PR voting in the Euros and Survation a better guide for GEs. I really doubt if the Greens will get 9% nationally in a GE, and their vote will tend to go to the anti-Tory with the perceived better chance. We don't have a solid basis for guessing who that might be. They are much closer to the LibDems on Brexit and much closer to Labour on non-Brexit issues. My guess (and it really is a guess, but I know a lot of Greens) is that half will vote Green anyway and the rest will go tactical.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877

    Anyone who takes anything from polls, especially at this times should exercise extreme caution....

    Indeed, but they're not wholly irrrelevant. The low standing of the two main Parties is a pesistent feature which makes sense in the current political climate.

    In fact it is not entirely beyond dispute as to who the main parties are.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954

    It may be that Youov is (for some unknown reason) a better guide for PR voting in the Euros and Survation a better guide for GEs. I really doubt if the Greens will get 9% nationally in a GE, and their vote will tend to go to the anti-Tory with the perceived better chance. We don't have a solid basis for guessing who that might be. They are much closer to the LibDems on Brexit and much closer to Labour on non-Brexit issues. My guess (and it really is a guess, but I know a lot of Greens) is that half will vote Green anyway and the rest will go tactical.

    Doesn't that depend on if there is an official alliance or not?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726
    I think that in 2015 - at a time when the Lib Dems were in Coalition - the Greens had about six target seats. Realistically, if they could get the Lib Dems to agree to stand aside for them in half a dozen seats where they are relatively strong and have a track record, then it would be a massive boost for them.

    Most of these seats - such as Bristol West, say - are likely to be seats previously held by the Lib Dems, so it would be a real concession from the Lib Dems to agree to stand aside in them in favour of the Greens, and I'd argue worth the quid pro quo of standing aside in return in other seats where the Lib Dems have any chance of being competitive.

    If this did happen then one of the main problems the Greens would face is that many of these seats have local MPs who appeal to Green-inclined voters to a greater extent than your average Labour MP. But, well, one problem at a time.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    How many Green voters on the ground would identify themselves as "eco-socialists"? Not members or activists, but the much wider group of people who put the Xs in boxes? Most, I strongly suspect, just think of themselves as normal people who are particularly concerned about climate change and other environmental issues. This "eco-socialist" stuff is really niche outside highly political circles.
    People may not use the label, but most Greens I have encountered are lefties who prioritise the environment. People like me, but in a different party, or voting for a different party. Or in some cases, more lefty, more committed and with a multitude of hair colours.

    I agree, some are more centrist in their non-environmental viewpoint, but this type of soft-green voter is really a bonus for the Green Party, as they are pretty much LibDems doing a spot of political eco-tourism.
    I think you MAY be talking about "Greens" in terms of members/activists. If you think about this May/June, when they did well, who are the people who voted for them who hadn't previously done so? In my experience of canvassing, a lot are broadly protest voting centrist concerned over extremism, Brexit sucking oxygen out of debate (especially on climate change) and so on.

    A few years ago, you got people saying they'd vote Green as the only "real" left wing choice. But they went to Labour under Corbyn largely,
    I agree that Corbyn becoming Labour leader was bad news for the Greens. However, I believe that the environmental issues are becoming more important for many than mainstream socialism. This is giving the Greens a boost, and some in Labour recognise that if we do not put environment policies front and centre then there is a risk that more voters will jump ship to the Greens.

    I can't say that I would never jump, but for the moment I still believe that the Labour Party is the best fit for me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    Eco-social democrats do, however... I say writing as one. And the Greens are not principally a socialist party.

    If Jo Swinson becomes Lib Dem leader, I suspect (based on hints I've picked up) that we will see a lot more LD/Green co-operation.
    If the LibDems had any sense (they don't), then they'd avoid a formal coalition with the Greens, but would stand aside in all nine (yes, just nine) seats where the Greens saved their deposits in 2017.

    In return the Greens would stand aside in the 50 to 100 seats where the LDs were in second place behind the Conservatives.

    But I think, ultimately, a coalition will be hard to put together.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,322

    rcs1000 said:

    Roger said:

    OT. £900,000 One careful owner..........

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48942411

    I had no idea that Tommy Robinson had quite so many criminal convictions.
    And I thought he lived in a terraced house in Luton.
    I'm always astonished that there are not more high-profile journalistic scoops based on the wealth of politicians that have no obvious source for it.

    There are many politicians, a handful of trade-unionists and at least one human-rights lawyer who seem worthy of a bit of a look.


  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    rcs1000 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    Eco-social democrats do, however... I say writing as one. And the Greens are not principally a socialist party.

    If Jo Swinson becomes Lib Dem leader, I suspect (based on hints I've picked up) that we will see a lot more LD/Green co-operation.
    If the LibDems had any sense (they don't), then they'd avoid a formal coalition with the Greens, but would stand aside in all nine (yes, just nine) seats where the Greens saved their deposits in 2017.

    In return the Greens would stand aside in the 50 to 100 seats where the LDs were in second place behind the Conservatives.

    But I think, ultimately, a coalition will be hard to put together.
    Sounds like a good compromise it does depend on which nine seats but maybe the lib dems can see this is a once in a millennium opportunity. I think they may actually realize this but I’m too far from anything now to know.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 924
    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,584

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    Has somebody pointed this out to him? I know he's fact-resistant but it's worth a try.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    viewcode said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    Has somebody pointed this out to him? I know he's fact-resistant but it's worth a try.
    They would rather sink the European fishing fleet in Belgrade fashion.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,322
    That's such a crap question though - everyone could. Almost no-one is likely to.

    Polling companies really need to use language well otherwise there (sic) results are meaningless.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740

    I think that in 2015 - at a time when the Lib Dems were in Coalition - the Greens had about six target seats. Realistically, if they could get the Lib Dems to agree to stand aside for them in half a dozen seats where they are relatively strong and have a track record, then it would be a massive boost for them.

    Most of these seats - such as Bristol West, say - are likely to be seats previously held by the Lib Dems, so it would be a real concession from the Lib Dems to agree to stand aside in them in favour of the Greens, and I'd argue worth the quid pro quo of standing aside in return in other seats where the Lib Dems have any chance of being competitive.

    If this did happen then one of the main problems the Greens would face is that many of these seats have local MPs who appeal to Green-inclined voters to a greater extent than your average Labour MP. But, well, one problem at a time.

    It'd be fascinating to know what the LDs promised the Greens and PC in return for their absence at Brecon. I imagine the answer is nothing concrete, but rather an agreement to have a joint anti-Boris Farage war room when the next election is called, and thrash out concessions then. Considering that the LDs need the Greens (and PC) to step aside in dozens of seats, I think the LD leadership will have to persuade its local parties to make way in about ten seats. As you say, this might not be easy, since most of those seats will have had substantial recent LibDem votes, and in nearly all of them the Greens will currently be well behind the LD vote total.

    Looking at the (rather risible) list of Green "target" seats, there are some I'm sure the LDs would want to "keep" eg. Eastleigh, but there are others (IOW, Buckingham, Totnes, Folkestone, Hereford) where they might give the Greens a free run for, say, two GEs, or until FPTP is replaced, whichever is the sooner...

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/green
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 924

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    Won't the ERG, DUP and Nige be spitting feathers if he does that? Some of them seem to be the sort of people who would reward duplicity with something very nasty indeed.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    Funny how many people are absolutely convinced Boris is going to do just what they want him to do. Now even including you it seems. If Boris does that will you support him?

    I think your scenario is more likely than HYUFD's call an election and screw the DUP proposal.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    I’ve listened to Andrew Neil since his LBC days, one of the best!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    Has somebody pointed this out to him? I know he's fact-resistant but it's worth a try.
    They would rather sink the European fishing fleet in Belgrade fashion.
    Belgrano !!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801

    Anyone who takes anything from polls, especially at this times should exercise extreme caution....

    I'll warn HYUFD.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    When have I ever opposed a Deal? I backed the Withdrawal Agreement (as indeed did Boris at MV3) and back a FTA for GB. I only back No Deal over further extension or revoke
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    Won't the ERG, DUP and Nige be spitting feathers if he does that? Some of them seem to be the sort of people who would reward duplicity with something very nasty indeed.
    Not sure about the DUP but I do not care about the others
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    nichomar said:

    viewcode said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    Has somebody pointed this out to him? I know he's fact-resistant but it's worth a try.
    They would rather sink the European fishing fleet in Belgrade fashion.
    Belgrano !!
    Auto correct, thank you
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    Funny how Kle4 etc dismissed my posts a few months ago that Labour Leave MPs could ultimately back the Withdrawal Agreement, just as I was dismissed for saying Boris would be next Tory leader.

    Now apparently such a scenario is 'paging HYUFD'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    Westminster voting intention: CON: 28% (+2) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 18% (+1) BREX: 14% (-4) GRN: 6% (-) via @BMGResearch, 02 - 05 Jul Chgs. w/ 07 Jun

    Thats the one HYUFD will use until a better one comes along !!!!
    I think he will duck this one too. It will not give the Johnson led Tories 350 seats.
    See next but one post
    No pollsters tonight have hypothetical Boris figures, they are all based on May as leader, as Comres has shown that makes a big difference

    Predictable response, indeed other posters predicted it
    The average voter does not spend hours studying Tory members polls, as far as they are concerned May is still Tory leader and Hunt could well succeed her.

    Unless and until Boris is actually elected Tory leader any full Boris bounce will not filter through
    You are totally predictable and blinkered
    For once I agree with HYUFD. As far as non political geeks are concerned the PM is May. Boris is just a maybe no more than that.
    Agreed
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    Funny how many people are absolutely convinced Boris is going to do just what they want him to do. Now even including you it seems. If Boris does that will you support him?

    I think your scenario is more likely than HYUFD's call an election and screw the DUP proposal.
    I haven't just been saying it, it has been fairly nuanced all along.

    I would only support Boris if he stops a damaging no deal and moves onto a socially responsible, business friendly, pro climate change policy base
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 924

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    Funny how many people are absolutely convinced Boris is going to do just what they want him to do. Now even including you it seems. If Boris does that will you support him?

    I think your scenario is more likely than HYUFD's call an election and screw the DUP proposal.
    I can't speak for Mr NorthWales but anyone who, to further their own ambitions, would divide his country take it to the brink of calamity and then row back to relative normality once he had achieved his ambition deserves votes from no-one.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740
    AndyJS said:

    Dadge said:


    I lean more to KInabalu's view than yours. One's own principles should come second to the welfare of one's children/family. Although I'm in favour of community schooling, we have grammar schools here and I was happy to apply for a place for our daughter.

    Another example is veganism: vegans shouldn't stop their children eating meat.

    I simply don't understand your comment.

    A principle is only a principle if you apply it to all situations. What you've written — "one's own principles should come second to the welfare of one's children/family" — doesn't make any sense, logically speaking. By definition, it cannot be a principle if you make an exception in certain circumstances.
    I refer the hon. gent. to this piece by Enzensberger: http://read-365.blogspot.com/2013/01/consistency-will-turn-any-good-cause.html
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    Westminster voting intention: CON: 28% (+2) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 18% (+1) BREX: 14% (-4) GRN: 6% (-) via @BMGResearch, 02 - 05 Jul Chgs. w/ 07 Jun

    Thats the one HYUFD will use until a better one comes along !!!!
    I think he will duck this one too. It will not give the Johnson led Tories 350 seats.
    See next but one post
    No pollsters tonight have hypothetical Boris figures, they are all based on May as leader, as Comres has shown that makes a big difference

    Predictable response, indeed other posters predicted it
    The average voter does not spend hours studying Tory members polls, as far as they are concerned May is still Tory leader and Hunt could well succeed her.

    Unless and until Boris is actually elected Tory leader any full Boris bounce will not filter through
    You are totally predictable and blinkered
    For once I agree with HYUFD. As far as non political geeks are concerned the PM is May. Boris is just a maybe no more than that.
    Agreed
    You are agreeing with yourself there !!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    Funny how many people are absolutely convinced Boris is going to do just what they want him to do. Now even including you it seems. If Boris does that will you support him?

    I think your scenario is more likely than HYUFD's call an election and screw the DUP proposal.
    I can't speak for Mr NorthWales but anyone who, to further their own ambitions, would divide his country take it to the brink of calamity and then row back to relative normality once he had achieved his ambition deserves votes from no-one.
    Yet it could deliver Brexit and a Tory election win, we tried decent and dull and worthy with May, it is now time to try ruthless, Machiavellian and charismatic with Boris
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 215
    Don't be so hard on yourself.

    'Another event dubbed a "Battle of the Sexes" took place during the 1998 Australian Open between Karsten Braasch and the Williams sisters. Venus and Serena Williams had claimed that they could beat any male player ranked outside the world's top 200, so Braasch, then ranked 203rd, challenged them both. Braasch was described by one journalist as "a man whose training regime centered around a pack of cigarettes and more than a couple of bottles of ice cold lager". The matches took place on court number 12 in Melbourne Park,[58] after Braasch had finished a round of golf and two shandies. He first took on Serena and after leading 5–0, beat her 6–1. Venus then walked on court and again Braasch was victorious, this time winning 6–2. Braasch said afterwards, "500 and above, no chance". He added that he had played like someone ranked 600th in order to keep the game "fun" and that the big difference was that men can chase down shots much easier and put spin on the ball that female players can't handle. The Williams sisters adjusted their claim to beating men outside the top 350.'

    You'd only need one point, and you wouldn't have to have the two shandies beforehand.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,064

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Eco-socialists don't vote LibDem. I keep saying this. But then I'm not objective in such matters.
    How many Green voters on the ground would identify themselves as "eco-socialists"? Not members or activists, but the much wider group of people who put the Xs in boxes? Most, I strongly suspect, just think of themselves as normal people who are particularly concerned about climate change and other environmental issues. This "eco-socialist" stuff is really niche outside highly political circles.
    People may not use the label, but most Greens I have encountered are lefties who prioritise the environment. People like me, but in a different party, or voting for a different party. Or in some cases, more lefty, more committed and with a multitude of hair colours.

    I agree, some are more centrist in their non-environmental viewpoint, but this type of soft-green voter is really a bonus for the Green Party, as they are pretty much LibDems doing a spot of political eco-tourism.
    I think you're absolutely right. The idea that votes can just be transferred between Lib Dems and Greens (or vice versa) is pure fantasy. There are plenty of us in the Lib Dems who think the Greens are too socialist or too authoritarian or both - my own view is that they're certainly not liberal. I'm sure, equally, there are plenty of Greens who think we're way too right-wing and/or Tory-lite in the Lib Dems. Just because we broadly agree on Remain and have some common ground on some environmental issues doesn't point to any kind of natural alliance. If I lived in a constituency where there wasn't a Lib Dem candidate then I'd be an order of magnitude more likely to abstain than lend my vote to the Greens.
    I’ve said this before from my experience of LDs in, say, the Marches. But the argument that one can automatically aggregate LD and Green votes seems as strong here as the idea of the aggregation of Conservative and Farage parties. The former perhaps in metropolitan areas but the limits are ignored.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    Funny how many people are absolutely convinced Boris is going to do just what they want him to do. Now even including you it seems. If Boris does that will you support him?

    I think your scenario is more likely than HYUFD's call an election and screw the DUP proposal.
    I can't speak for Mr NorthWales but anyone who, to further their own ambitions, would divide his country take it to the brink of calamity and then row back to relative normality once he had achieved his ambition deserves votes from no-one.
    Actually, that is the essence of politics sadly
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 924
    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    edited July 12
    The only unanimity I'm hearing both from friends and listening to vox pops (excluding Tory membership ones) is that both Corbyn and Johnson are loathed in equal measure. If either of them pick up any floating voters I'll be amazed. This has to be the 'Dawning of the (Lib) Democrats'

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    edited July 12

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    No it will not, Boris is a staunch Canada style FTA backer not an EEA backer, as are most Tory MPs and Tory voters, it will only be EEA with a Corbyn premiership backed by the LDs and SNP if not revoke and Remain or EUref2
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    We’re not leaving. The country don’t want to leave just forget it and get on with running the country.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    Westminster voting intention: CON: 28% (+2) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 18% (+1) BREX: 14% (-4) GRN: 6% (-) via @BMGResearch, 02 - 05 Jul Chgs. w/ 07 Jun

    Thats the one HYUFD will use until a better one comes along !!!!
    I think he will duck this one too. It will not give the Johnson led Tories 350 seats.
    See next but one post
    No pollsters tonight have hypothetical Boris figures, they are all based on May as leader, as Comres has shown that makes a big difference

    Predictable response, indeed other posters predicted it
    The average voter does not spend hours studying Tory members polls, as far as they are concerned May is still Tory leader and Hunt could well succeed her.

    Unless and until Boris is actually elected Tory leader any full Boris bounce will not filter through
    You are totally predictable and blinkered
    For once I agree with HYUFD. As far as non political geeks are concerned the PM is May. Boris is just a maybe no more than that.
    Agreed
    You are agreeing with yourself there !!!!
    Actually Philip Thompson agreeing with me
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726
    Dadge said:

    I think that in 2015 - at a time when the Lib Dems were in Coalition - the Greens had about six target seats. Realistically, if they could get the Lib Dems to agree to stand aside for them in half a dozen seats where they are relatively strong and have a track record, then it would be a massive boost for them.

    Most of these seats - such as Bristol West, say - are likely to be seats previously held by the Lib Dems, so it would be a real concession from the Lib Dems to agree to stand aside in them in favour of the Greens, and I'd argue worth the quid pro quo of standing aside in return in other seats where the Lib Dems have any chance of being competitive.

    If this did happen then one of the main problems the Greens would face is that many of these seats have local MPs who appeal to Green-inclined voters to a greater extent than your average Labour MP. But, well, one problem at a time.

    It'd be fascinating to know what the LDs promised the Greens and PC in return for their absence at Brecon. I imagine the answer is nothing concrete, but rather an agreement to have a joint anti-Boris Farage war room when the next election is called, and thrash out concessions then. Considering that the LDs need the Greens (and PC) to step aside in dozens of seats, I think the LD leadership will have to persuade its local parties to make way in about ten seats. As you say, this might not be easy, since most of those seats will have had substantial recent LibDem votes, and in nearly all of them the Greens will currently be well behind the LD vote total.

    Looking at the (rather risible) list of Green "target" seats, there are some I'm sure the LDs would want to "keep" eg. Eastleigh, but there are others (IOW, Buckingham, Totnes, Folkestone, Hereford) where they might give the Greens a free run for, say, two GEs, or until FPTP is replaced, whichever is the sooner...

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/green
    The target seat list is not a good guide as it will mainly be a list of those seats which were won by a small share. As @rcs1000 mentioned earlier the seats where the Greens saved their deposit at GE2017 is a better starting point. In addition to Brighton Pavilion, they were:
    Isle of Wight
    Buckingham (though I think that's the Speaker's seat)
    Bristol West
    Sheffield Central
    Skipton & Ripon
    North Herefordshire
    North East Hertfordshire
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    A mutual agreement on both sides to use GATT 24 does seem like a sensible [and softer] compromise rather than the transition and backstop.

    Since the referendum we have been told repeatedly that it could take many years to get the details of a new free trade agreement. We have also been told that we are years away from alternative arrangements being ready for NI.

    A standstill agreement for a decade will give plenty of time to negotiate a new agreement. That is longer than CETA took to negotiate IIRC.

    As I understand it Boris is effectively saying let's have a 10 year transition rather than a 2 year one. Frankly that actually seems far more realistic than alternatives proposed so far. After the last few years I have no confidence much could be achieved in May's 2 year transition.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    We’re not leaving. The country don’t want to leave just forget it and get on with running the country.
    The country voted to Leave and we are leaving once Boris arrives at No 10
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    We’re not leaving. The country don’t want to leave just forget it and get on with running the country.
    If only it was that easy
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    Westminster voting intention: CON: 28% (+2) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 18% (+1) BREX: 14% (-4) GRN: 6% (-) via @BMGResearch, 02 - 05 Jul Chgs. w/ 07 Jun

    Thats the one HYUFD will use until a better one comes along !!!!
    I think he will duck this one too. It will not give the Johnson led Tories 350 seats.
    See next but one post
    No pollsters tonight have hypothetical Boris figures, they are all based on May as leader, as Comres has shown that makes a big difference

    Predictable response, indeed other posters predicted it
    The average voter does not spend hours studying Tory members polls, as far as they are concerned May is still Tory leader and Hunt could well succeed her.

    Unless and until Boris is actually elected Tory leader any full Boris bounce will not filter through
    You are totally predictable and blinkered
    For once I agree with HYUFD. As far as non political geeks are concerned the PM is May. Boris is just a maybe no more than that.
    Agreed
    You are agreeing with yourself there !!!!
    Actually Philip Thompson agreeing with me
    He was agreeing with you on this occasion and you are agreeing he is agreeing with you.

    Surreal
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    We’re not leaving. The country don’t want to leave just forget it and get on with running the country.
    The country voted to Leave and we are leaving once Boris arrives at No 10
    Three years ago, neither of these muppets are capable of doing it, the only way we’ll leave is by accident which given the competence of the Tory party is unfortunately possible.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740
    matt said:



    People may not use the label, but most Greens I have encountered are lefties who prioritise the environment. People like me, but in a different party, or voting for a different party. Or in some cases, more lefty, more committed and with a multitude of hair colours.

    I agree, some are more centrist in their non-environmental viewpoint, but this type of soft-green voter is really a bonus for the Green Party, as they are pretty much LibDems doing a spot of political eco-tourism.

    I think you're absolutely right. The idea that votes can just be transferred between Lib Dems and Greens (or vice versa) is pure fantasy. There are plenty of us in the Lib Dems who think the Greens are too socialist or too authoritarian or both - my own view is that they're certainly not liberal. I'm sure, equally, there are plenty of Greens who think we're way too right-wing and/or Tory-lite in the Lib Dems. Just because we broadly agree on Remain and have some common ground on some environmental issues doesn't point to any kind of natural alliance. If I lived in a constituency where there wasn't a Lib Dem candidate then I'd be an order of magnitude more likely to abstain than lend my vote to the Greens.
    I’ve said this before from my experience of LDs in, say, the Marches. But the argument that one can automatically aggregate LD and Green votes seems as strong here as the idea of the aggregation of Conservative and Farage parties. The former perhaps in metropolitan areas but the limits are ignored.
    There's a bit of straw-manning going on here. When the LibDems got the Greens to stand aside in Brecon, it was not on the basis that the bloc of Green voters would now vote LibDem. It was based on the (correct) assumption that SOME of those Green voters will vote LibDem and more will do so than will vote Con or Brexit, thereby making it SLIGHTLY more likely that the LibDems will win. Who knows, it might only increase the LibDems' advantage by ten votes. But in a marginal, ten votes might be significant.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    Funny how many people are absolutely convinced Boris is going to do just what they want him to do. Now even including you it seems. If Boris does that will you support him?

    I think your scenario is more likely than HYUFD's call an election and screw the DUP proposal.
    I haven't just been saying it, it has been fairly nuanced all along.

    I would only support Boris if he stops a damaging no deal and moves onto a socially responsible, business friendly, pro climate change policy base
    That's what I want to happen too and I think it will too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    We’re not leaving. The country don’t want to leave just forget it and get on with running the country.
    The country voted to Leave and we are leaving once Boris arrives at No 10
    Only with a deal
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,522
    Evening all :)

    With the LDs polling 1.2% and the Greens 0.8% in East Ham, I imagine there'll be plenty of argument over who fights this seat and tries to undo Stephen Timms and his wafer thin 40,000 majority. Perhaps the argument is losing one deposit is cheaper than losing two.

    YouGov shows the LDs leading in London of course so we may need to consider if Shaun Bailey is prepared to stand aside in favour of Siobhan Benita.

    Survation looks an outlier but the fieldwork was done in the midst of the Darroch furore so perhaps it has boosted Labour.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726
    matt said:

    I’ve said this before from my experience of LDs in, say, the Marches. But the argument that one can automatically aggregate LD and Green votes seems as strong here as the idea of the aggregation of Conservative and Farage parties. The former perhaps in metropolitan areas but the limits are ignored.

    You will lose some voters who won't transfer between the parties, but some voters would transfer, even if reluctantly.

    It's also possible that you gain some voters who would otherwise see Labour as the best anti-Tory vote, if by presenting a united front they appear a more credible option for keeping the Tories out.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    marke09 said:

    Westminster voting intention: CON: 28% (+2) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 18% (+1) BREX: 14% (-4) GRN: 6% (-) via @BMGResearch, 02 - 05 Jul Chgs. w/ 07 Jun

    Thats the one HYUFD will use until a better one comes along !!!!
    I think he will duck this one too. It will not give the Johnson led Tories 350 seats.
    See next but one post
    No pollsters tonight have hypothetical Boris figures, they are all based on May as leader, as Comres has shown that makes a big difference

    Predictable response, indeed other posters predicted it
    The average voter does not spend hours studying Tory members polls, as far as they are concerned May is still Tory leader and Hunt could well succeed her.

    Unless and until Boris is actually elected Tory leader any full Boris bounce will not filter through
    You are totally predictable and blinkered
    For once I agree with HYUFD. As far as non political geeks are concerned the PM is May. Boris is just a maybe no more than that.
    Agreed
    You are agreeing with yourself there !!!!
    Actually Philip Thompson agreeing with me
    He was agreeing with you on this occasion and you are agreeing he is agreeing with you.

    Surreal
    Inception of agreements.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 924
    edited July 12

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    I doubt you have followed my posts too closely but I have been saying this for some weeks.

    Boris is hoodwinking ERG ( and HYUFD) to get into Office and then will pivot a deal to keep him there
    Funny how many people are absolutely convinced Boris is going to do just what they want him to do. Now even including you it seems. If Boris does that will you support him?

    I think your scenario is more likely than HYUFD's call an election and screw the DUP proposal.
    I can't speak for Mr NorthWales but anyone who, to further their own ambitions, would divide his country take it to the brink of calamity and then row back to relative normality once he had achieved his ambition deserves votes from no-one.
    Actually, that is the essence of politics sadly
    Do you know I still believe most politicians enter the game for generally altruistic reasons.

    Johnson, could and still might crash the country and all because as a cbild he wanted to be 'king of the world'. At least people like Mark Francois have a belief, an ideology, however mad they appear.

    If Johnson does sell out once he has the prize that is almost more amoral than following through with no deal. Alan B'Stard, breathes and lives with a woman called Carrie.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    We’re not leaving. The country don’t want to leave just forget it and get on with running the country.
    The country voted to Leave and we are leaving once Boris arrives at No 10
    Seeing that Boris gives the justified impression of being less competent than Theresa, your naivety borders on the religious.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    We’re not leaving. The country don’t want to leave just forget it and get on with running the country.
    The country voted to Leave and we are leaving once Boris arrives at No 10
    Seeing that Boris gives the justified impression of being less competent than Theresa, your naivety borders on the religious.
    I dont see any evidence to justify that impression.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    With the LDs polling 1.2% and the Greens 0.8% in East Ham, I imagine there'll be plenty of argument over who fights this seat and tries to undo Stephen Timms and his wafer thin 40,000 majority. Perhaps the argument is losing one deposit is cheaper than losing two.

    YouGov shows the LDs leading in London of course so we may need to consider if Shaun Bailey is prepared to stand aside in favour of Siobhan Benita.

    Survation looks an outlier but the fieldwork was done in the midst of the Darroch furore so perhaps it has boosted Labour.

    Losing deposits losing deposits we’ll go a losing deposits..... required knowledge by all lib dems😀
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,253

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,522
    nichomar said:


    Losing deposits losing deposits we’ll go a losing deposits..... required knowledge by all lib dems😀

    The LDs lost 375 deposits in 2017 - on a 19% vote I'd expect very few if any to be lost.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    We’re not leaving. The country don’t want to leave just forget it and get on with running the country.
    The country voted to Leave and we are leaving once Boris arrives at No 10
    Seeing that Boris gives the justified impression of being less competent than Theresa, your naivety borders on the religious.
    Boris will take us out Deal or No Deal in October, even if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so.

    As he knows if he does not the vast majority of Tory Leave voters will defect an masse to Farage making the Brexit Party the largest party to deliver it instead
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,253

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
This discussion has been closed.