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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LA

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wow! I take back all my vitriol against Boris. BREXIT means BINO is fine by me.
    A Canada style FTA for GB is not BINO
    No it will be Noway plus, plus, plus, but not before 31st October.
    We’re not leaving. The country don’t want to leave just forget it and get on with running the country.
    The country voted to Leave and we are leaving once Boris arrives at No 10
    Seeing that Boris gives the justified impression of being less competent than Theresa, your naivety borders on the religious.
    Boris will take us out Deal or No Deal in October, even if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so.

    As he knows if he does not the vast majority of Tory Leave voters will defect an masse to Farage making the Brexit Party the largest party to deliver it instead
    HOL in cohorts with the HOC are about to make that impossible
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    So please take a bow the next U.K. PM what a wonderful image he creates, clearly going to lead the faithful to the glorious uplands.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    stodge said:

    nichomar said:


    Losing deposits losing deposits we’ll go a losing deposits..... required knowledge by all lib dems😀

    The LDs lost 375 deposits in 2017 - on a 19% vote I'd expect very few if any to be lost.

    I know I thought you’re post about seats that both parties lost deposits amusing and brought a few long gone memories back.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Federer through to the final.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    AndyJS said:

    Federer through to the final.

    Epic match, especially that 4th set
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
    Why does it need a president in the first place? Unless it is trying to be more and more like a country.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    HYUFD said:


    Boris will take us out Deal or No Deal in October, even if that requires proroguing Parliament to do so.

    As he knows if he does not the vast majority of Tory Leave voters will defect an masse to Farage making the Brexit Party the largest party to deliver it instead

    Will Boris have a majority to prorogue Parliament? It seems unlikely if Hammond and 30 other Conservative MPs defy their leader and oppose any prorogation. If the Commons then votes down a No Deal there will be a clear collision course between parliament and government.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited July 2019
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
    Why does it need a president in the first place? Unless it is trying to be more and more like a country.
    It needs a chairman, president is common parlance in Europe for president, the bloody social club has a president so don’t get hung up on the English interpretation of the word.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    In my opinion it was the plan all along
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,585
    Watching the interview, he has a future on R5 Fighting Talk’s ‘defending the indefensible’.
    As a credible PM, not so much.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
    Why does it need a president in the first place? Unless it is trying to be more and more like a country.
    It needs a chairman, president is common parlance in Europe for president, the bloody social club has a president so don’t get hung up on the English interpretation of the word.
    "president is common parlance in Europe for president"

    Freaky!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
    Why does it need a president in the first place? Unless it is trying to be more and more like a country.
    It needs a chairman, president is common parlance in Europe for president, the bloody social club has a president so don’t get hung up on the English interpretation of the word.
    "president is common parlance in Europe for president"

    Freaky!
    It’s not freaky from the person who is prime minister in Spain, who is president of the government to the residents association managing communal assets the chairman is the president.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    Out of how many PMs? :p
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Let us all hope so
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    A very good idea
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited July 2019

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    For gods sake the answer has been obvious all along. A Norway type agreement that maintained free movement of labour and ended our membership of the EU. May’s ridiculous red lines made that impossible. With hindsight there was no brexit agreement that would satisfy the purists on either sides.

    If ten years down the line it didn’t work for us and them we can move further away. Youngsters wouldn’t feel their ‘future’ had been stolen and we would have very little economic disruption.

    (Sorry. Rereading, it seems like I’m exasperated at you. Im not. At the situation. )
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    We have to hope so.

    The leak wrecked the career of a senior civil servant, buggered up the main realationship that the UK has, and that the US has, and generally was something that should never happen.

    The recent precedent of Mr Williamson not being locked in the Tower though suggests that hopes may be dashed. (He should either be headless or exonerated - I don't care which.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588
    edited July 2019

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    Scratch that!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    "Look the point is … er, what is the point? It is a tough job but somebody has got to do it."
    - Boris upon being appointed Shadow Arts Minister in 2004.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    He doesn’t like it up him, he can only speak in sound bites can’t answer a specific question and finally turns a question of his character into an attack on corbyn. Good luck with him
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Omnium said:

    We have to hope so.

    The leak wrecked the career of a senior civil servant, buggered up the main realationship that the UK has, and that the US has, and generally was something that should never happen.

    The recent precedent of Mr Williamson not being locked in the Tower though suggests that hopes may be dashed. (He should either be headless or exonerated - I don't care which.)
    I am already looking forward to the trial.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    notme2 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    For gods sake the answer has been obvious all along. A Norway type agreement that maintained free movement of labour and ended our membership of the EU. May’s ridiculous red lines made that impossible. With hindsight there was no brexit agreement that would satisfy the purists on either sides.

    If ten years down the line it didn’t work for us and them we can move further away. Youngsters wouldn’t feel their ‘future’ had been stolen and we would have very little economic disruption.

    (Sorry. Rereading, it seems like I’m exasperated at you. Im not. At the situation. )
    The referendum campaign ruled out the Norway option.

    Mrs May's red lines weren't plucked out of thin air, they were based on the Vote Leave campaign.

    Remember leaving the single market, customs, and the CJEU messages from Vote Leave?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    Prime Ministers since 1867 who won elections to become PM for the first time:

    Gladstone
    Macdonald
    Attlee
    Wilson
    Thatcher
    Blair
    Cameron

    And Prime Ministers who did not win elections but were appointed internally one way or another:

    Disraeli
    Salisbury
    Rosebery
    Balfour
    Campbell-Bannerman*
    Asquith
    Lloyd George*
    Bonar Law*
    Baldwin
    Chamberlain
    Churchill
    Eden*
    Macmillan*
    Home
    Callaghan
    Major*
    Brown
    May
    The next one.

    I think this idea of a democratic mandate is somewhat over-egged. Bear in mind the ones with asterisks by their name went on to win the following elections outright (some by large majorities) and many others won elections at other times.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
    Why does it need a president in the first place? Unless it is trying to be more and more like a country.
    It needs a chairman, president is common parlance in Europe for president, the bloody social club has a president so don’t get hung up on the English interpretation of the word.
    "president is common parlance in Europe for president"

    Freaky!
    Reminds me in French class at school, one of my classmates was asked to translate into English a section of French text regarding a British exchange student visiting a holiday camp with his "family".

    ""Holiday camp"? It's a sort of holiday camp."

    And we all burst out laughing! :lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    Prime Ministers since 1867 who won elections to become PM for the first time:

    Gladstone
    Macdonald
    Attlee
    Wilson
    Thatcher
    Blair
    Cameron

    And Prime Ministers who did not win elections but were appointed internally one way or another:

    Disraeli
    Salisbury
    Rosebery
    Balfour
    Campbell-Bannerman*
    Asquith
    Lloyd George*
    Bonar Law*
    Baldwin
    Chamberlain
    Churchill
    Eden*
    Macmillan*
    Home
    Callaghan
    Major*
    Brown
    May
    The next one.

    I think this idea of a democratic mandate is somewhat over-egged. Bear in mind the ones with asterisks by their name went on to win the following elections outright (some by large majorities) and many others won elections at other times.
    Huh, as many as that? I stand corrected!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Why didn't this kind of scrutiny happen before all the ballots went out? Grr.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
    Why does it need a president in the first place? Unless it is trying to be more and more like a country.
    It needs a chairman, president is common parlance in Europe for president, the bloody social club has a president so don’t get hung up on the English interpretation of the word.
    "president is common parlance in Europe for president"

    Freaky!
    Reminds me in French class at school, one of my classmates was asked to translate into English a section of French text regarding a British exchange student visiting a holiday camp with his "family".

    ""Holiday camp"? It's a sort of holiday camp."

    And we all burst out laughing! :lol:
    Ok I’m a bit slow but people really do not understand the common use of the word president across Europe.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    RobD said:

    Why didn't this kind of scrutiny happen before all the ballots went out? Grr.
    Because Boris wouldn't let it
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    Prime Ministers since 1867 who won elections to become PM for the first time:

    Gladstone
    Macdonald
    Attlee
    Wilson
    Thatcher
    Blair
    Cameron

    And Prime Ministers who did not win elections but were appointed internally one way or another:

    Disraeli
    Salisbury
    Rosebery
    Balfour
    Campbell-Bannerman*
    Asquith
    Lloyd George*
    Bonar Law*
    Baldwin
    Chamberlain
    Churchill
    Eden*
    Macmillan*
    Home
    Callaghan
    Major*
    Brown
    May
    The next one.

    I think this idea of a democratic mandate is somewhat over-egged. Bear in mind the ones with asterisks by their name went on to win the following elections outright (some by large majorities) and many others won elections at other times.
    Stop bringing facts in to this discussion.

    As your hero said, we're sick of experts.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    RobD said:

    Why didn't this kind of scrutiny happen before all the ballots went out? Grr.
    Because Boris refused to do interviews or debates.

  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    notme2 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    For gods sake the answer has been obvious all along. A Norway type agreement that maintained free movement of labour and ended our membership of the EU. May’s ridiculous red lines made that impossible. With hindsight there was no brexit agreement that would satisfy the purists on either sides.

    If ten years down the line it didn’t work for us and them we can move further away. Youngsters wouldn’t feel their ‘future’ had been stolen and we would have very little economic disruption.

    (Sorry. Rereading, it seems like I’m exasperated at you. Im not. At the situation. )
    The referendum campaign ruled out the Norway option.

    Mrs May's red lines weren't plucked out of thin air, they were based on the Vote Leave campaign.

    Remember leaving the single market, customs, and the CJEU messages from Vote Leave?
    I also remember many saying otherwise. We’ve had the conversations before, Norway style tied to a clear and funded policy of free movement of labour rules enforcement, ie sending the beggars and criminals home as the treaties allow.

    And over the last couple of year immigration has become an issue of much less concern. While I share scepticism of the scale of how beneficial eu migration is, especially at the bottom of the earnings.

    But it gets more or less the issue sorted. As again I’ve said. Flabbergasted that any Conservative who invokes the spirit of Thatcher could even contemplate leaving the single market. Utter madness.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Actually Brown was chosen by his fellow MPs, by such a sheer number that nobody else could stand.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    PB Tory Shit your pants poll

    NEW: General Election voting intention in England, Scotland and Wales, 10th - 11th July 2019:

    LAB 29% (+3), CON 23% (-1), BXP 20% (nc), LD 19% (nc), SNP 4% (+1), GRN 3% (-2), OTH 2% (-1)

    (changes w/ 19th - 20th June 2019)

    Con are pretty much out of thre game while they have their leadership contest but even when Boris is elected we shouldn't expect an immediate switch from Brexit to Con.

    Con will have to deliver Brexit before they get much of that 20% back.
    The main parties have historically tended to gain during Leadership elections!
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    Omnium said:

    We have to hope so.

    The leak wrecked the career of a senior civil servant, buggered up the main realationship that the UK has, and that the US has, and generally was something that should never happen.

    The recent precedent of Mr Williamson not being locked in the Tower though suggests that hopes may be dashed. (He should either be headless or exonerated - I don't care which.)
    One assumes the Cabinet Secretary has already ruled out the most embarrassing outcomes, whereas with Williamson they identified it was the case and he was fired from a senior cabinet job. So probably someone we’ve not heard of (mind you.. being fired from the cabinet at this stage would be of limited consequence for most people except Jeremy Hunt).

    That police statement is more outspoken than I’d have expected - calling on the perpetrator to give themselves up and giving out the anti-terrorist hotline is probably gonna give someone a sleepless night.

    All round, it seems someone involved in “A Gateway Process” (yeurch) has decided to go nuclear on the that person’s arse!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Well, Brown technically won the first round in 2007 as well.

    It's just that the Blairites were giving early indications in the art of being spineless cretins that they have perfected under the Jezaster and not one stood against him.

    The only MP who had the balls to try was Macdonnell, but everyone hated him so he couldn't get nominated.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    For gods sake the answer has been obvious all along. A Norway type agreement that maintained free movement of labour and ended our membership of the EU. May’s ridiculous red lines made that impossible. With hindsight there was no brexit agreement that would satisfy the purists on either sides.

    If ten years down the line it didn’t work for us and them we can move further away. Youngsters wouldn’t feel their ‘future’ had been stolen and we would have very little economic disruption.

    (Sorry. Rereading, it seems like I’m exasperated at you. Im not. At the situation. )
    The referendum campaign ruled out the Norway option.

    Mrs May's red lines weren't plucked out of thin air, they were based on the Vote Leave campaign.

    Remember leaving the single market, customs, and the CJEU messages from Vote Leave?
    I also remember many saying otherwise. We’ve had the conversations before, Norway style tied to a clear and funded policy of free movement of labour rules enforcement, ie sending the beggars and criminals home as the treaties allow.

    And over the last couple of year immigration has become an issue of much less concern. While I share scepticism of the scale of how beneficial eu migration is, especially at the bottom of the earnings.

    But it gets more or less the issue sorted. As again I’ve said. Flabbergasted that any Conservative who invokes the spirit of Thatcher could even contemplate leaving the single market. Utter madness.
    Well you voted Leave when Vote Leave, and Michael Gove and Boris Johnson repeatedly said we would be leaving the single market.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Actually Brown was chosen by his fellow MPs, by such a sheer number that nobody else could stand.
    nobody else dare stand...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Omnium said:

    We have to hope so.

    The leak wrecked the career of a senior civil servant, buggered up the main realationship that the UK has, and that the US has, and generally was something that should never happen.

    The recent precedent of Mr Williamson not being locked in the Tower though suggests that hopes may be dashed. (He should either be headless or exonerated - I don't care which.)
    One assumes the Cabinet Secretary has already ruled out the most embarrassing outcomes, whereas with Williamson they identified it was the case and he was fired from a senior cabinet job. So probably someone we’ve not heard of (mind you.. being fired from the cabinet at this stage would be of limited consequence for most people except Jeremy Hunt).

    That police statement is more outspoken than I’d have expected - calling on the perpetrator to give themselves up and giving out the anti-terrorist hotline is probably gonna give someone a sleepless night.

    All round, it seems someone involved in “A Gateway Process” (yeurch) has decided to go nuclear on the that person’s arse!
    And I'm all out of popcorn....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Federer through to the final.

    Epic match, especially that 4th set
    +1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    You know, I forgot one PM.

    Do you think the sorest loser in history would forgive me for forgetting 1970?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Actually Brown was chosen by his fellow MPs, by such a sheer number that nobody else could stand.
    I think Boris is very similar in style to Brown, the way he tries to co-opt people into boosting his popularity. The offer of a new yacht to the Queen is one such example. She is generally popular with the population with some exceptions and Boris or his campaign team obviously think they can gain an edge by his blatantly obvious pitch. It did not work for Brown and I don't think it will work for Boris....
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Omnium said:

    We have to hope so.

    The leak wrecked the career of a senior civil servant, buggered up the main realationship that the UK has, and that the US has, and generally was something that should never happen.

    The recent precedent of Mr Williamson not being locked in the Tower though suggests that hopes may be dashed. (He should either be headless or exonerated - I don't care which.)
    One assumes the Cabinet Secretary has already ruled out the most embarrassing outcomes, whereas with Williamson they identified it was the case and he was fired from a senior cabinet job. So probably someone we’ve not heard of (mind you.. being fired from the cabinet at this stage would be of limited consequence for most people except Jeremy Hunt).

    That police statement is more outspoken than I’d have expected - calling on the perpetrator to give themselves up and giving out the anti-terrorist hotline is probably gonna give someone a sleepless night.

    All round, it seems someone involved in “A Gateway Process” (yeurch) has decided to go nuclear on the that person’s arse!
    The language is strange, referring to the anti terrorist laws seems to take it to a different level.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    For gods sake the answer has been obvious all along. A Norway type agreement that maintained free movement of labour and ended our membership of the EU. May’s ridiculous red lines made that impossible. With hindsight there was no brexit agreement that would satisfy the purists on either sides.

    If ten years down the line it didn’t work for us and them we can move further away. Youngsters wouldn’t feel their ‘future’ had been stolen and we would have very little economic disruption.

    (Sorry. Rereading, it seems like I’m exasperated at you. Im not. At the situation. )
    The referendum campaign ruled out the Norway option.

    Mrs May's red lines weren't plucked out of thin air, they were based on the Vote Leave campaign.

    Remember leaving the single market, customs, and the CJEU messages from Vote Leave?
    I also remember many saying otherwise. We’ve had the conversations before, Norway style tied to a clear and funded policy of free movement of labour rules enforcement, ie sending the beggars and criminals home as the treaties allow.

    And over the last couple of year immigration has become an issue of much less concern. While I share scepticism of the scale of how beneficial eu migration is, especially at the bottom of the earnings.

    But it gets more or less the issue sorted. As again I’ve said. Flabbergasted that any Conservative who invokes the spirit of Thatcher could even contemplate leaving the single market. Utter madness.
    Well you voted Leave when Vote Leave, and Michael Gove and Boris Johnson repeatedly said we would be leaving the single market.
    The option on the ballot paper was to remain or leave the European Union. Our future relationship was not a choice made.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    In 2017, yes. In 2019 in the midst of a shift in political allegiance as great as that which occured in 1982, where tactical votes should be placed is a moot point. I also expect that there will be some sort of LD-Green cooperation this time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    We have to hope so.

    The leak wrecked the career of a senior civil servant, buggered up the main realationship that the UK has, and that the US has, and generally was something that should never happen.

    The recent precedent of Mr Williamson not being locked in the Tower though suggests that hopes may be dashed. (He should either be headless or exonerated - I don't care which.)
    One assumes the Cabinet Secretary has already ruled out the most embarrassing outcomes, whereas with Williamson they identified it was the case and he was fired from a senior cabinet job. So probably someone we’ve not heard of (mind you.. being fired from the cabinet at this stage would be of limited consequence for most people except Jeremy Hunt).

    That police statement is more outspoken than I’d have expected - calling on the perpetrator to give themselves up and giving out the anti-terrorist hotline is probably gonna give someone a sleepless night.

    All round, it seems someone involved in “A Gateway Process” (yeurch) has decided to go nuclear on the that person’s arse!
    The language is strange, referring to the anti terrorist laws seems to take it to a different level.
    I don't think it does, merely the name of their unit has anti-terrorism in it.

    @AlastairMeeks will be happy they explicitly mentioned publication of secret materials may also be a criminal matter.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
    Why does it need a president in the first place? Unless it is trying to be more and more like a country.
    It needs a chairman, president is common parlance in Europe for president, the bloody social club has a president so don’t get hung up on the English interpretation of the word.
    "president is common parlance in Europe for president"

    Freaky!
    Reminds me in French class at school, one of my classmates was asked to translate into English a section of French text regarding a British exchange student visiting a holiday camp with his "family".

    ""Holiday camp"? It's a sort of holiday camp."

    And we all burst out laughing! :lol:
    You can't beat simple pleasures. What's sort of weird though is that there has to be a victim - although in your example the victim was a third person of non-existence. My victim was actually in-absentia - a person that didn't just make a typo.

    I make nothing of this observation, other than its odd. Perhaps we're just all odd. (I've long thought I am)
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    notme2 said:

    I also remember many saying otherwise. We’ve had the conversations before, Norway style tied to a clear and funded policy of free movement of labour rules enforcement, ie sending the beggars and criminals home as the treaties allow.

    And over the last couple of year immigration has become an issue of much less concern. While I share scepticism of the scale of how beneficial eu migration is, especially at the bottom of the earnings.

    But it gets more or less the issue sorted. As again I’ve said. Flabbergasted that any Conservative who invokes the spirit of Thatcher could even contemplate leaving the single market. Utter madness.

    Well you voted Leave when Vote Leave, and Michael Gove and Boris Johnson repeatedly said we would be leaving the single market.
    At that stage, it was just an advisory referendum.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Andrew Neil taking Boris apart.

    Humiliating and difficult to watch
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,588

    Andrew Neil taking Boris apart.

    Humiliating and difficult to watch

    Don't worry, Boris will be Boris!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    notme2 said:

    Forgetting whether the EU will agree to it or not for one moment, and the EU would need to agree to it for it to work, do you think a 10 year transition would be a good or bad idea?

    For gods sake the answer has been obvious all along. A Norway type agreement that maintained free movement of labour and ended our membership of the EU. May’s ridiculous red lines made that impossible. With hindsight there was no brexit agreement that would satisfy the purists on either sides.

    If ten years down the line it didn’t work for us and them we can move further away. Youngsters wouldn’t feel their ‘future’ had been stolen and we would have very little economic disruption.

    (Sorry. Rereading, it seems like I’m exasperated at you. Im not. At the situation. )
    The referendum campaign ruled out the Norway option.

    Mrs May's red lines weren't plucked out of thin air, they were based on the Vote Leave campaign.

    Remember leaving the single market, customs, and the CJEU messages from Vote Leave?
    I also remember many saying otherwise. We’ve had the conversations before, Norway style tied to a clear and funded policy of free movement of labour rules enforcement, ie sending the beggars and criminals home as the treaties allow.

    And over the last couple of year immigration has become an issue of much less concern. While I share scepticism of the scale of how beneficial eu migration is, especially at the bottom of the earnings.

    But it gets more or less the issue sorted. As again I’ve said. Flabbergasted that any Conservative who invokes the spirit of Thatcher could even contemplate leaving the single market. Utter madness.
    Well you voted Leave when Vote Leave, and Michael Gove and Boris Johnson repeatedly said we would be leaving the single market.
    The option on the ballot paper was to remain or leave the European Union. Our future relationship was not a choice made.
    That's called lying to the voters. It would be like the Lib Dems promising to abolish tuition fees and then increasing them.

    Plus Mrs May would have been ousted by the ERG/Leavers if she had tried to keep us in the single market and customs union.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    "I love tennis with a passion. I challenged Boris Becker to a match once and he said he was up for it but he never called back. I bet I could make him run around."
    - Boris in 2005.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    Bring back TM
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Any word on how Hunt did?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    Or five out of the last eight. The norm in the last half century.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited July 2019

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    Bring back TM
    Give Cameron his Earldom and have him be PM from the Lords. :D
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    notme2 said:

    The option on the ballot paper was to remain or leave the European Union. Our future relationship was not a choice made.

    That's called lying to the voters. It would be like the Lib Dems promising to abolish tuition fees and then increasing them.
    Plus Mrs May would have been ousted by the ERG/Leavers if she had tried to keep us in the single market and customs union.
    The increase in tuition fees was Conservative Party policy, of course, Mr Eagles. In fact, the Conservatives wanted to push them up very much higher, but were stopped by the Lib Dems. The problem with coalition government is that you cannot always get exactly what you want.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    Bring back TM
    Can we?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    What Tory caricature?

    If you mean the one that describes him as a posh racist career politician with the intellect of a stuffed donkey, the integrity of a Valleys politician, the honesty of Jeffrey Archer, the friends of a Russian oligarch crossed with a random terrorist and the manners of Boris Johnson...

    ...except possibly for the last bit, that isn't really a caricature. It is unfortunately the truth.

    At the same time, I do sympathise. I couldn't vote for Johnson, even though he's marginally less awful than Corbyn.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    RobD said:

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    Bring back TM
    Give Cameron his Earldom and have him be PM from the Lords. :D
    I liked David Cameron and believe the coalition was a very good government
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    Any word on how Hunt did?

    Pretty well. He was unlucky that they broadcast him first. He'd have looked better in comparison to the wafflefuckler.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    ydoethur said:

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    What Tory caricature?

    If you mean the one that describes him as a posh racist career politician with the intellect of a stuffed donkey, the integrity of a Valleys politician, the honesty of Jeffrey Archer, the friends of a Russian oligarch crossed with a random terrorist and the manners of Boris Johnson...

    ...except possibly for the last bit, that isn't really a caricature. It is unfortunately the truth.

    At the same time, I do sympathise. I couldn't vote for Johnson, even though he's marginally less awful than Corbyn.
    This interview is a total car crash for Boris

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Any word on how Hunt did?

    Pretty well. He was unlucky that they broadcast him first. He'd have looked better in comparison to the wafflefuckler.
    I'm still holding out hope for a surprise Hunt victory. :p
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    With the LDs polling 1.2% and the Greens 0.8% in East Ham, I imagine there'll be plenty of argument over who fights this seat and tries to undo Stephen Timms and his wafer thin 40,000 majority. Perhaps the argument is losing one deposit is cheaper than losing two.

    YouGov shows the LDs leading in London of course so we may need to consider if Shaun Bailey is prepared to stand aside in favour of Siobhan Benita.

    Survation looks an outlier but the fieldwork was done in the midst of the Darroch furore so perhaps it has boosted Labour.

    Yougov looks the outlier when set aside the other polling companies - none of which have Labour below 25%.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    PClipp said:

    notme2 said:

    The option on the ballot paper was to remain or leave the European Union. Our future relationship was not a choice made.

    That's called lying to the voters. It would be like the Lib Dems promising to abolish tuition fees and then increasing them.
    Plus Mrs May would have been ousted by the ERG/Leavers if she had tried to keep us in the single market and customs union.
    The increase in tuition fees was Conservative Party policy, of course, Mr Eagles. In fact, the Conservatives wanted to push them up very much higher, but were stopped by the Lib Dems. The problem with coalition government is that you cannot always get exactly what you want.
    And Labour policy, of course. They were the ones who set up the Browne review.

    Why anyone with half a brain didn't scrap his report on the basis he was a self-confessed criminal who should have got five years for lying about his, ummm, extra curricular activities, I do not know.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    Bring back TM
    Can we?
    I would stop this chaos now if I could. Boris is giving me a headache
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Any word on how Hunt did?

    Pretty well. He was unlucky that they broadcast him first. He'd have looked better in comparison to the wafflefuckler.
    I'm still holding out hope for a surprise Hunt victory. :p
    I think we all are.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    ydoethur said:

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    What Tory caricature?

    If you mean the one that describes him as a posh racist career politician with the intellect of a stuffed donkey, the integrity of a Valleys politician, the honesty of Jeffrey Archer, the friends of a Russian oligarch crossed with a random terrorist and the manners of Boris Johnson...

    ...except possibly for the last bit, that isn't really a caricature. It is unfortunately the truth.

    At the same time, I do sympathise. I couldn't vote for Johnson, even though he's marginally less awful than Corbyn.
    This interview is a total car crash for Boris
    I could have told you that before it happened. He's still not quite so awful as Corbyn.

    Admittedly that's like being asked to choose between being hanged and drowned in a large barrel of wine.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Andrew Neil taking Boris apart.

    Humiliating and difficult to watch

    He'll make us smile though. Apparently. And that is somehow deemed to be a) true, and b) important in some way.
    Apparently.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    With the LDs polling 1.2% and the Greens 0.8% in East Ham, I imagine there'll be plenty of argument over who fights this seat and tries to undo Stephen Timms and his wafer thin 40,000 majority. Perhaps the argument is losing one deposit is cheaper than losing two.

    YouGov shows the LDs leading in London of course so we may need to consider if Shaun Bailey is prepared to stand aside in favour of Siobhan Benita.

    Survation looks an outlier but the fieldwork was done in the midst of the Darroch furore so perhaps it has boosted Labour.

    Yougov looks the outlier when set aside the other polling companies - none of which have Labour below 25%.
    Why bother.

    None of the polls are of any value at present and each one will take the poll they think helps their cause when in reality no one knows
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Any word on how Hunt did?

    Pretty well. He was unlucky that they broadcast him first. He'd have looked better in comparison to the wafflefuckler.
    I'm still holding out hope for a surprise Hunt victory. :p
    I think we all are.
    Actually I would prefer a rogue meteor strike on the House of Commons, and for Her Majesty to summon John Major as caretaker.

    But that doesn't seem likely. So we're stuck with either a friend of Rupert Murdoch or Boris Johnson.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    RobD said:

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    Bring back TM
    Give Cameron his Earldom and have him be PM from the Lords. :D
    I liked David Cameron and believe the coalition was a very good government
    Yes and Chamberlain was very well regarded before Munich. But, like Cameron, he will be forever damned for one catastrophic misjudgement.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
    Why does it need a president in the first place? Unless it is trying to be more and more like a country.
    It needs a chairman, president is common parlance in Europe for president, the bloody social club has a president so don’t get hung up on the English interpretation of the word.
    "president is common parlance in Europe for president"

    Freaky!
    Reminds me in French class at school, one of my classmates was asked to translate into English a section of French text regarding a British exchange student visiting a holiday camp with his "family".

    ""Holiday camp"? It's a sort of holiday camp."

    And we all burst out laughing! :lol:
    You can't beat simple pleasures. What's sort of weird though is that there has to be a victim - although in your example the victim was a third person of non-existence. My victim was actually in-absentia - a person that didn't just make a typo.

    I make nothing of this observation, other than its odd. Perhaps we're just all odd. (I've long thought I am)
    OMG I forgot to mention that the sentence in question was when the exchange student's French friend explained to him the meaning of a particular French term in English:

    ""Camp de vacances"? It's a sort of holiday camp."

    So when my classmate translated the whole passage into English, he was left with no choice but to say:

    ""Holiday camp"? It's a sort of holiday camp."

    [Sorry, trying not to crack up as I type that :lol: ]
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited July 2019

    RobD said:

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    Bring back TM
    Give Cameron his Earldom and have him be PM from the Lords. :D
    I liked David Cameron and believe the coalition was a very good government
    Yes and Chamberlain was very well regarded before Munich. But, like Cameron, he will be forever damned for one catastrophic misjudgement.
    Putting Gove at Education and Lansley at Health plus tuition fees brings it to four.

    PS - Chamberlain was actually at his most popular after Munich - to the extent a snap election was seriously considered to cash in on his success.

    It was the German invasion of Czechoslovakia in breach of Munich that shredded his credibility.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    What Tory caricature?

    If you mean the one that describes him as a posh racist career politician with the intellect of a stuffed donkey, the integrity of a Valleys politician, the honesty of Jeffrey Archer, the friends of a Russian oligarch crossed with a random terrorist and the manners of Boris Johnson...

    ...except possibly for the last bit, that isn't really a caricature. It is unfortunately the truth.

    At the same time, I do sympathise. I couldn't vote for Johnson, even though he's marginally less awful than Corbyn.
    This interview is a total car crash for Boris
    I could have told you that before it happened. He's still not quite so awful as Corbyn.

    Admittedly that's like being asked to choose between being hanged and drowned in a large barrel of wine.
    I would never vote for Corbyn under any circumstances
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    edited July 2019

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Johnson was so bad. It's not only that I would rather vote for Corbyn. I'd rather vote for the Tory caricature of Corbyn.

    What Tory caricature?

    If you mean the one that describes him as a posh racist career politician with the intellect of a stuffed donkey, the integrity of a Valleys politician, the honesty of Jeffrey Archer, the friends of a Russian oligarch crossed with a random terrorist and the manners of Boris Johnson...

    ...except possibly for the last bit, that isn't really a caricature. It is unfortunately the truth.

    At the same time, I do sympathise. I couldn't vote for Johnson, even though he's marginally less awful than Corbyn.
    This interview is a total car crash for Boris
    I could have told you that before it happened. He's still not quite so awful as Corbyn.

    Admittedly that's like being asked to choose between being hanged and drowned in a large barrel of wine.
    I would never vote for Corbyn under any circumstances
    Well, I might, in theory.

    The problem is the alternatives have to be the likes of Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Gove...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Evening again all :)

    Just a quick dip into the latest European polling after last week's convincing win for New Democracy in Greece.

    In Portugal, which votes in early October, the ruling Socialists have 38%, a 15 point lead over the opposition social democrats and a swing of 11% which you'd think would create a near overall majority for the Socialists and a governing majority with their partners.

    Little change in Austria with the latest poll showing the OVP with a big lead over the SPD and the FPO but the Greens are up to 12% which would be a trebling of their vote from the last election.

    In Spain, the latest Simple Logica poll gives the ruling PSOE a 15 point advantage over PP and the left-wing UP but the big news is that Citizens have crashed seven points in a month and trail on 13% in fourth.

    The Info Sapiens poll in the Ukraine gives President Zelensky's Servant of The People party 45% ahead of the parliamentary elections on the 21st. That's a 35 point lead over European Solidarity and the Social Democrats and suggests Zelensky's Presidential power will be backed by a solid Parliamentary majority.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    We are no longer in 2017. Corbyn's 'ambiguity' has cost him many transfers.

    Though there are the anti-semitic Green members who will still like him
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Not a fair criticism when the anti-EU brigade catch a fit of the vapours whenever a directly elected President is mooted.
    Why does it need a president in the first place? Unless it is trying to be more and more like a country.
    It needs a chairman, president is common parlance in Europe for president, the bloody social club has a president so don’t get hung up on the English interpretation of the word.
    "president is common parlance in Europe for president"

    Freaky!
    Reminds me in French class at school, one of my classmates was asked to translate into English a section of French text regarding a British exchange student visiting a holiday camp with his "family".

    ""Holiday camp"? It's a sort of holiday camp."

    And we all burst out laughing! :lol:
    You can't beat simple pleasures. What's sort of weird though is that there has to be a victim - although in your example the victim was a third person of non-existence. My victim was actually in-absentia - a person that didn't just make a typo.

    I make nothing of this observation, other than its odd. Perhaps we're just all odd. (I've long thought I am)
    OMG I forgot to mention that the sentence in question was when the exchange student's French friend explained to him the meaning of a particular French term in English:

    ""Camp de vacances"? It's a sort of holiday camp."

    So when my classmate translated the whole passage into English, he was left with no choice but to say:

    ""Holiday camp"? It's a sort of holiday camp."

    [Sorry, trying not to crack up as I type that :lol: ]
    Il faut y etre.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    Do you ever consider that Corbyn today is vastly more toxic than in 2017 now he is known
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.

    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    They were the authoritarian socialists, who had turned to the Green Party because Labour was not authoritarian enough for them. Then along came Corbyn, and they all went back.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,459

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    Do you ever consider that Corbyn today is vastly more toxic than in 2017 now he is known
    And the LDs refreshingly palatable after being viewed as sour in 2017?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Well, Brown technically won the first round in 2007 as well.

    It's just that the Blairites were giving early indications in the art of being spineless cretins that they have perfected under the Jezaster and not one stood against him.

    The only MP who had the balls to try was McDonnell, but everyone hated him so he couldn't get nominated.
    Brown was unelected. McDonnell failed to get onto the ballot. He needed to be nominated by 45 MPs, but only got 29 to back him.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    PClipp said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.

    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    They were the authoritarian socialists, who had turned to the Green Party because Labour was not authoritarian enough for them. Then along came Corbyn, and they all went back.
    Has anyone ever met any of these guys?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    We have to hope so.

    The leak wrecked the career of a senior civil servant, buggered up the main realationship that the UK has, and that the US has, and generally was something that should never happen.

    The recent precedent of Mr Williamson not being locked in the Tower though suggests that hopes may be dashed. (He should either be headless or exonerated - I don't care which.)
    One assumes the Cabinet Secretary has already ruled out the most embarrassing outcomes, whereas with Williamson they identified it was the case and he was fired from a senior cabinet job. So probably someone we’ve not heard of (mind you.. being fired from the cabinet at this stage would be of limited consequence for most people except Jeremy Hunt).

    That police statement is more outspoken than I’d have expected - calling on the perpetrator to give themselves up and giving out the anti-terrorist hotline is probably gonna give someone a sleepless night.

    All round, it seems someone involved in “A Gateway Process” (yeurch) has decided to go nuclear on the that person’s arse!
    The language is strange, referring to the anti terrorist laws seems to take it to a different level.
    I don't think it does, merely the name of their unit has anti-terrorism in it.

    @AlastairMeeks will be happy they explicitly mentioned publication of secret materials may also be a criminal matter.
    Who will do the investigation in the US I wonder.

    Frankly, they've taken their time. The email and other social media accounts of all the possible suspects i.e. everyone who received or who had access to the emails sent by the Ambassador, whether here or in the US, should have been seized and preserved long before now, as well as all other forms of communication and other records.

    They've allowed whoever was involved time to try and delete evidence. Now it is very hard to do this but it does mean that the investigation takes longer than it might otherwise.

    An inquiry should have been started within hours of the leak.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    Prime Ministers since 1867 who won elections to become PM for the first time:

    Gladstone
    Macdonald
    Attlee
    Wilson
    Thatcher
    Blair
    Cameron

    And Prime Ministers who did not win elections but were appointed internally one way or another:

    Disraeli
    Salisbury
    Rosebery
    Balfour
    Campbell-Bannerman*
    Asquith
    Lloyd George*
    Bonar Law*
    Baldwin
    Chamberlain
    Churchill
    Eden*
    Macmillan*
    Home
    Callaghan
    Major*
    Brown
    May
    The next one.

    I think this idea of a democratic mandate is somewhat over-egged. Bear in mind the ones with asterisks by their name went on to win the following elections outright (some by large majorities) and many others won elections at other times.
    Huh, as many as that? I stand corrected!
    Macdonald and Cameron did not strictly win elections to become PM. In 1924 Macdonald was well short of leading the largest party with just 191 seats. He took office in a minority sustained by Asquith's Liberals who had 158 seats. Together they were able to comfortably outvote Baldwin's 258 Tories.
    Cameron, of course, only took office as a result of reaching a Coalition Agreement with Clegg's LibDems in 2010.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745


    I would never vote for Corbyn under any circumstances

    If 35% vote Lib Dem it would be the end of Boris, Corbyn, Farage and Brexit.

    It would be the return of normality and sanity.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    justin124 said:

    The Greens will not have a full set of candidates, so many Green supporters will effectively be forced to vote for other parties in many seats (usually LD, SNP or Plaid).

    Most will likely vote Labour on an anti-Tory tactical basis. I know of Green party members here in Norwich who fully intend to do that.Moreover they are nothing like as consumed by Brexit as commentators assume.
    I seriously do not believe that Labour is going to be able to rely on tactical votes from anti-Tories as it has in the past, say when Ed was leader. I think you are underestimating the dislike of the current leadership outside of committed supporters. The anti-semitism stuff is a real turn-off for many potential tactical voters.
    But Green supporters switched massively to Labour in 2017 with Corbyn in charge.
    We are no longer in 2017. Corbyn's 'ambiguity' has cost him many transfers.

    Though there are the anti-semitic Green members who will still like him
    Is that last sentence connected or a just a weird non sequitur?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768
    It is disturbing to reflect that I am having severe problems with my legs tonight as a result of climbing lots of spiral staircases today...

    ..and that I am a year younger than Roger Federer.

    The man is just extraordinary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Brexit logic at its finest. The unelected Commission President will fail to get elected because she doesn’t have enough votes.

    https://twitter.com/dkshrewsbury/status/1149385481286819841?s=21

    Certainly not elected by the citizens.
    Whereas PM Boris...?
    An exception, not the rule.
    Assuming Boris becomes PM then three out of the last four Prime Ministers were not chosen by the citizens when they became PM.
    4 out of 5 if you count Sir John too.
    Let's keep going back - to include Jim

    and Alec, Harold M, Sir Anthony

    We are very, very used to changes of PM mid-Parliament. It really isn't an issue
    Brown was the most recent PM chosen by neither his fellow MPs nor the electorate.

    May won the first round in 2016 fair and square :)
    Well, Brown technically won the first round in 2007 as well.

    It's just that the Blairites were giving early indications in the art of being spineless cretins that they have perfected under the Jezaster and not one stood against him.

    The only MP who had the balls to try was McDonnell, but everyone hated him so he couldn't get nominated.
    Brown was unelected. McDonnell failed to get onto the ballot. He needed to be nominated by 45 MPs, but only got 29 to back him.
    Brown was nominated by every Labour MP.
This discussion has been closed.