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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris vacillated on Darroch because he’s weak, not because of

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 13 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris vacillated on Darroch because he’s weak, not because of Trump

Boris Johnson has always had a facility for a briefly memorable turn of phrase. Whether referring to table tennis as, archaically, ‘whiff-whaff’ or describing Brexit talks extending into further rounds beyond October 31 as the ‘hamster wheel of doom’, Johnson’s words have the capacity to amuse and distract. For a politician, that’s a useful skill up to a point.

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    edited July 13
    Well, I don’t think that anything I said was actually decisive in Kim’s decision to resign.
    Had I my time again, to answer your question directly, yes - I probably should have been more emphatic that Kim personally had my full support.
    But I was surprised that his tenure as ambassador in Washington should be raised by the foreign secretary as a fitting subject for debate in a Conservative Party leadership campaign.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jul/12/andrew-neil-boris-johnson-tory-leadership-boris-johnson-uses-andrew-neil-interview-to-deny-failing-to-support-ambassador-live-news

    ‘I was surprised a prospective PM should be expected to talk about the front page issue of the week’.
    Blustering buffoon.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    A convincing diagnosis, David.

    I do think he is in a sense in Trump’s pocket, though, as he lacks the moral judgment to feel any imperative to stand up to Trump, and as a weak character will tend to acquiesce to the wishes of a powerful bully.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    Second like the Tories in Brecon. If they are lucky.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    IanB2 said:

    Second like the Tories in Brecon. If they are lucky.

    Clearly they are not. :smile:

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    From his time in London we know that the one thing he hates is being pinned down and forced to face his precious promises.

    His preferred strategy is to tapdance around and avoid taking any firm positions in the first place. We have seen this time and again during the campaign - except on the single issue of 31 October where even the Bozo knows he has to appear firm in order to keep his groupies excited and on board.

    That is what he tried with the ambassador. When the question arose, the Bozo was thinking “if I say he should stay perhaps he’ll actually go and I’ll look wrong, or if I say he should go maybe he’ll stay and I will look weak. Engage bluster and duck the question....”

    As David says, this is much more likely than some Trump/Farage conspiracy to create a vacancy (which is now so sensitive such a strategy would have backfired in any case).

    The one thing we can guarantee is that PMQs is going to be truly and utterly dire.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111
    edited July 13
    I believe you are right, David. Johnson has a weak character. But he does take himself extremely seriously in his ambition to be Prime Minister and is quite disciplined in his pursuit of that goal.

    I think Johnson saw personal advantage in the leak to support a narrative of clearing away elite Remoaners standing in the way of the new Brexit order. It turned out a miscalculation, hence the reverse ferret.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    On topic, FPT:
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The main renegotiation Boris will do is to remove the temporary Customs Union for GB which May insisted on not Barnier and which can be done in an afternoon

    When will he do this renegotiation? Before the election or afterwards? If afterwards, will he campaign based on it?
    Of f the last 100 years
    Of course what? You didn't answer the question.
    I did, just as a diehard Remainer you disliked the answer.

    You can renegotiate and remove the temporary Customs Union for GB in an afternoon and pass the Withdrawal Agreement without problems once Boris wins a majority
    So he will do it after the election? And will he campaign in that election based on a Northern Ireland backstop?
    Boris already voted for the backstop at MV3
    Why didn't he vote for it at MV1?

    If he had, we'd likely be out of the EU by now, which is what Boris says he wants.

    But he wouldn't be running for PM......
    As it had a temporary Customs Union for GB.

    He did vote for it at MV3, it was mainly diehard Remainers who did not, as PM Boris will be prepared to go to war with diehard Remainers to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal
    1. He wrote a letter in favour of Remain and a letter in favour of Leave, and left his good friend Cammo under the impression he would come out for Remain, until changing his mind at the last minute. I believe he sent Cammo a text or message just minutes before he announced his decision to the media.

    2. After the Chequers agreement the great Bozo led the toast at the cabinet meeting to Mrs May and her sterling achievement, then when he saw David Davis heading for the exit changed his mind and decided to resign over the same agreement he has toasted earlier.

    3. He voted both against and for the very same Brexit deal in Parliament.

    Don’t you think this might be evidence that your hero isn’t someone with a track record of taking a position and sticking to it? Before you even get to look at his track record and the rest of his life.

    There is a whole new thread about that.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    edited July 13
    Good analysis. He's going to be like Brown - he knows he wants to be PM, but won't have a clue what to do when he's there...

    As to the most recent hustings and Neil interview:

    "answer the bloody question!"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-heckler-savages-boris-johnson-18147232

    And so say all most of us!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    The one possible upside I can see for the Bozo (never let it be said I don’t try to see both sides..) is the possibility of a return to genuine pre-Blair cabinet government.

    As David suggests in his concluding paragraphs, Bozo is too lazy to bone up on the detail of every cabinet brief, and will happily leave the tiresome business of being held accountable for them to his colleagues, in a way that a succession of control freaks since Major (the tight control of the coalition Quad substituting for Cammo’s personal lack of freakery...at least as far as control is concerned) would never have allowed.

    Any advantage is however likely to be undermined by the individuals he will appoint to said portfolios. When you consider the dire lack of talent on the Tory benches (or indeed in Parliament more widely), take out those who won’t serve under the Bozo, take out those Bozo won’t appoint because they are too sensible or too ‘unsound’ on Brexit for his groupies to endure, we are likely to see some eyebrow (and probably hair) raising appointments; people crying out for a bit of control freakery to be imposed upon them.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427
    "Boris Johnson has always had a facility for a briefly memorable turn of phrase."


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427
    IanB2 said:

    The one possible upside I can see for the Bozo (never let it be said I don’t try to see both sides..) is the possibility of a return to genuine pre-Blair cabinet government.

    The question of who will be a new prime minister’s chancellor is always important, but Johnson has extra reason to worry about who will be moving next door in Downing Street. He doesn’t want a nosey neighbour.

    In the New Labour years the shouting and screaming and throwing of heavy objects happened between Blair and Brown. When Ken Clarke moved in next to the Majors he was alarmed at the noises coming through the partition wall, only to discover years later that it had been Edwina Currie. So Johnson probably needs someone who never listens and would struggle with something as technical as a tape recorder, although I suspect Theresa May wouldn’t take the job.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/johnson-won-t-want-someone-in-no-11-bright-enough-to-use-a-tape-recorder-xbj9hfwr8
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    IanB2 said:

    The one possible upside I can see for the Bozo (never let it be said I don’t try to see both sides..) is the possibility of a return to genuine pre-Blair cabinet government.

    I anticipate being occasionally pleasantly surprised.....but only because my opinion is so low in the first place.....great PMs surround themselves with good people - but I doubt the cavalcade of obsequious sycophants smarming up to Johnson have many among them....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    The one possible upside I can see for the Bozo (never let it be said I don’t try to see both sides..) is the possibility of a return to genuine pre-Blair cabinet government.

    The question of who will be a new prime minister’s chancellor is always important, but Johnson has extra reason to worry about who will be moving next door in Downing Street. He doesn’t want a nosey neighbour.

    In the New Labour years the shouting and screaming and throwing of heavy objects happened between Blair and Brown. When Ken Clarke moved in next to the Majors he was alarmed at the noises coming through the partition wall, only to discover years later that it had been Edwina Currie. So Johnson probably needs someone who never listens and would struggle with something as technical as a tape recorder, although I suspect Theresa May wouldn’t take the job.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/johnson-won-t-want-someone-in-no-11-bright-enough-to-use-a-tape-recorder-xbj9hfwr8
    Grayling, then ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,487
    Interesting analysis Herders.

    I tend to the view that Boris is much more lazy than lacking in confidence, although the latter may be a factor in his bluster. Another important factor is the inbred sense of entitlement, that notwithstanding his actions there will always be a way out with someone clearing up the mess and Boris merrily sailing on.

    As Prime Minister there is nowhere to hide. The buck stops with you and the leadership, personal qualities and capabilities that you bring to the table will be scrutinized to the n'th degree. All Boris's weaknesses are about to be laid bare, day in day out.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432
    Is it possible Boris vacillated in the ITV debate because he feared the leak came from his own camp?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338

    Is it possible Boris vacillated in the ITV debate because he feared the leak came from his own camp?

    I was wondering the same thing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    Really sharp insight from David Herdson. We can expect his Premiership to be one of dither and drift, with him acting like a cushion, marked by the imprint of the last person to sit on him.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    Excellent article. As David says, Johnson is smart enough to know he’s crap. He’s got away with it up until now because he’s never faces sustained, critical scrutiny. Being PM will not be like that!!

    A talented cabinet depends on the availability of talent. And therein lies another Tory problem - especially if Johnson is only going to appointvavowed No Dealers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906
    The main thing one senses about Boris Johnson is - nothing.

    There is emptiness there. No substance. A void.

    It is all 'persona' rather than person. Bluff. Deflecting. Superficial.

    One has no clue what he believes in other than keeping his show on the road. One suspects very little.

    He reminds me very much of Jimmy Savile.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    I am struck by the fact that literally every smart PB Tory opposes Johnson becoming party leader. That is very telling.
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,909
    On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    rcs1000 said:

    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.

    How would a corbyn government handle your second scenario with chaos all around? Would they push on regardless with the program or would they attempt to manage it first?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576

    Really sharp insight from David Herdson. We can expect his Premiership to be one of dither and drift, with him acting like a cushion, marked by the imprint of the last person to sit on him.

    I always find EU summits interesting as leaders often seem to change tack there compared to what they've been putting out for domestic consumption.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    Interesting legal spin on the upcoming Epstein trial:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-aspect-of-jeffrey-epsteins-plea-bargain-has-been-largely-overlooked/2019/07/12/26e89698-a4b9-11e9-bd56-eac6bb02d01d_story.html

    As for Epstein’s pals — the politicians and movie stars, the plutocrats and professors who traveled or partied with him and his seemingly endless company of young companions — no doubt some of them are sweating, too. Trying to recall whether the cameras were ever pointed at them. Wondering whether their secrets were inside that safe.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    nichomar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.

    How would a corbyn government handle your second scenario with chaos all around? Would they push on regardless with the program or would they attempt to manage it first?

    Push on. Never compromise. Ever. That’s how the far left works. Revolution is destruction of the old order.

  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169
    felix said:

    On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.
    The point is not actually whether Johnson’s lack of backing ultimately made a difference*. The point was simply his lack of backing in the first place.

    *however I think some people have been hasty in assuming that Darroch’s position was untenable. One only has to listen to what people (including Trump!) have been saying in America since the resignation, to see that Trump, in his usual way, tweeted his first reaction to the leaks, without actually considering whether what he was tweeting was true, probably without having bothered to personally acquaint himself with the contents (relying on second or third hand reports) and without consulting with others in the administration when he declared that the ambassador was “not liked over here” (which was obviously not true). I’m quite sure that given the passage of a week or two and a few well placed conversations and a bit of flattery, Trump would have done a complete 180 on the issue. It’s what he does, repeatedly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    Can I make another Epstein prediction.

    When his money is eventually counted, it will turn out that he is no billionaire. Indeed, it may turn out to be all a chimera. He may be more Madoff than Soros.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906
    felix said:

    On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.

    I don't think Johnson is the villain in this one. Trump and the leaker and the publisher are to blame. Wonder if we will ever find out who it was? Don't suppose we will.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    nichomar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.

    How would a corbyn government handle your second scenario with chaos all around? Would they push on regardless with the program or would they attempt to manage it first?

    Push on. Never compromise. Ever. That’s how the far left works. Revolution is destruction of the old order.

    That was my view which makes me wonder how he would get a majority in those circumstances or are the electorate that unthinking?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.

    How would a corbyn government handle your second scenario with chaos all around? Would they push on regardless with the program or would they attempt to manage it first?

    Push on. Never compromise. Ever. That’s how the far left works. Revolution is destruction of the old order.

    That was my view which makes me wonder how he would get a majority in those circumstances or are the electorate that unthinking?

    Boris Johnson. He is, by far, the best friend Jeremy Corbyn has. That the Tories can’t see this genuinely amazes me.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I make another Epstein prediction.

    When his money is eventually counted, it will turn out that he is no billionaire. Indeed, it may turn out to be all a chimera. He may be more Madoff than Soros.

    Sounds plausible - unless he has sources of money other than legitimate ones.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Observer, it's bizarre.

    Not least because they have obvious multiple recent examples of polling changing rapidly. Pointing at Boris' apparent popularity this moment, before he's done a day as PM, as if it's set in stone as a positive, when May blew a 20 point lead and the Lib Dems have come roaring back, and BP has come out of nowhere, is just weird.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    I am struck by the fact that literally every smart PB Tory opposes Johnson becoming party leader. That is very telling.

    Smart Tories should f**k off and join the LibDems.

    How often do they need to be told?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    F1: Verstappen's win odds down from 11 to 8, which surprises me a bit actually, given practice. Maybe it's weight of money.

    Also, Boris' odds on exceeding 80% have fallen from about 13, when Mr. Eagles tipped it, to 7 (Ladbrokes).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    IanB2 said:

    I am struck by the fact that literally every smart PB Tory opposes Johnson becoming party leader. That is very telling.

    Smart Tories should f**k off and join the LibDems.

    How often do they need to be told?
    According to some who post here, they already have.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    I missed this story from a couple of weeks back - it sounds as though the existing hardware has insufficient capacity to run Boeing’s software fix:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/26/business/boeing-737-max-faa-test.html

    The Max could be grounded for a long time.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877

    Is it possible Boris vacillated in the ITV debate because he feared the leak came from his own camp?

    If Shadsy ran a book and the odds were decent enough I'd have a fiver on Williamson. He has form.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    rcs1000 said:

    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.

    That’s a Corbyn sized fence you got there.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169
    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877
    rcs1000 said:

    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.

    The flaw in this otherwise plausible scenario, Robert lies in the words '...Brexit now behind us.' As you of all people should know, Brexit would only just be beginning.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    rcs1000 said:

    Can I make another Epstein prediction.

    When his money is eventually counted, it will turn out that he is no billionaire. Indeed, it may turn out to be all a chimera. He may be more Madoff than Soros.

    NYT:

    Jeffrey Epstein’s Fortune May Be More Illusion Than Fact

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/business/jeffrey-epstein-net-worth.html

    And when you think either his or Deutsche Bank's week couldn't get any worse.....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7236423/Deutcshe-Bank-cut-ties-Jeffrey-Epstein-2-MONTHS-AGO.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    edited July 13
    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Nevertheless it would suit Bozo hugely to wave away almost any question on a detail of domestic policy by telling the MP to go ask the relevant minister, as Mrs T used to do, before Blair came along and decided he was more capable to answer all questions than any of his colleagues.

    Am I right in remembering that during Mrs May’s brief honeymoon there were commentators suggesting she might take us back to genuine cabinet government?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.

    How would a corbyn government handle your second scenario with chaos all around? Would they push on regardless with the program or would they attempt to manage it first?

    Push on. Never compromise. Ever. That’s how the far left works. Revolution is destruction of the old order.

    That was my view which makes me wonder how he would get a majority in those circumstances or are the electorate that unthinking?

    Boris Johnson. He is, by far, the best friend Jeremy Corbyn has.
    And vice versa.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,757
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    I am struck by the fact that literally every smart PB Tory opposes Johnson becoming party leader. That is very telling.

    Smart Tories should f**k off and join the LibDems.

    How often do they need to be told?
    According to some who post here, they already have.
    I am not joining the Lib Dems, but all things being equal, I won't be voting Tory as the Party membership seem to have taken leave of their senses. I will be lending my vote to the Lib Dems for the time being, and have already done so in the Euro elections
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877

    I am struck by the fact that literally every smart PB Tory opposes Johnson becoming party leader. That is very telling.

    Yes. It is of course not without parallels on the other side. Corbyn isn't exactly popular with sentient supporters of Labour, but then he is not on the threshold of 10 Downing Street.....yet.

    Those are not rats leaving the sinking ship, they are able-bodied seamen.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,006

    Mr. Observer, it's bizarre.
    Not least because they have obvious multiple recent examples of polling changing rapidly. Pointing at Boris' apparent popularity this moment, before he's done a day as PM, as if it's set in stone as a positive, when May blew a 20 point lead and the Lib Dems have come roaring back, and BP has come out of nowhere, is just weird.

    Nor weird really. If you accept that people do not usually vote FOR a party, but AGAINST the one the dislike most, then that means they have a choice of two or three or four others - and can switch quite comfortably depending on the circumstances.

    The problem that some PB posters have - and I think Mr HY is high up on this list - is that they assume that if a person has voted for a Conservative candidate once, they will vote Conservative for evermore. That may have been the case once upon a time, but it certainly isn`t now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    PClipp said:

    Mr. Observer, it's bizarre.
    Not least because they have obvious multiple recent examples of polling changing rapidly. Pointing at Boris' apparent popularity this moment, before he's done a day as PM, as if it's set in stone as a positive, when May blew a 20 point lead and the Lib Dems have come roaring back, and BP has come out of nowhere, is just weird.

    Nor weird really. If you accept that people do not usually vote FOR a party, but AGAINST the one the dislike most, then that means they have a choice of two or three or four others - and can switch quite comfortably depending on the circumstances.

    The problem that some PB posters have - and I think Mr HY is high up on this list - is that they assume that if a person has voted for a Conservative candidate once, they will vote Conservative for evermore. That may have been the case once upon a time, but it certainly isn`t now.
    No-one can complain of a shortage of things to vote against; at least we can say that.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877
    alex. said:

    felix said:

    On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.
    The point is not actually whether Johnson’s lack of backing ultimately made a difference*. The point was simply his lack of backing in the first place.

    *however I think some people have been hasty in assuming that Darroch’s position was untenable. One only has to listen to what people (including Trump!) have been saying in America since the resignation, to see that Trump, in his usual way, tweeted his first reaction to the leaks, without actually considering whether what he was tweeting was true, probably without having bothered to personally acquaint himself with the contents (relying on second or third hand reports) and without consulting with others in the administration when he declared that the ambassador was “not liked over here” (which was obviously not true). I’m quite sure that given the passage of a week or two and a few well placed conversations and a bit of flattery, Trump would have done a complete 180 on the issue. It’s what he does, repeatedly.
    Yes, the reaction from the White House was a good example of the kind of instability and incompetence that Daroch had referred to.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114
    Nigelb said:

    I missed this story from a couple of weeks back - it sounds as though the existing hardware has insufficient capacity to run Boeing’s software fix:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/26/business/boeing-737-max-faa-test.html

    The Max could be grounded for a long time.

    It seems uncertain what this issue exactly is, and when it manifests itself: some sources say the issue revealed itself once they introduced a deliberate fault in the computing system, not under 'ordinary' flight conditions.

    Having said that, it might well be that there isn't an easy fix - they'll be hoping they don't need to alter the plane's hardware, which might require new certification. The processors used (AIUI 80286) are getting rather long in the tooth, though.

    Of more importance for Boeing IMO, is the fact that the 737NG might be being dragged into the issue. Not because of MCAS, but because it might be impossible to manually trim the plane under certain flight conditions. Fixing that might be a horrendous issue.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,826
    I was going to use the old phrase 'harsh but fair' to describe David's piece this morning. Then I realised half of the phrase was redundant. The OP is not harsh. It is simply a fair assessment of Johnson's failings. He remains quite remarkably unsuited for high office.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877
    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.

    I don't think Johnson is the villain in this one. Trump and the leaker and the publisher are to blame. Wonder if we will ever find out who it was? Don't suppose we will.
    If Civil Servant, yes; if politician, unlikely, especially if a senior one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    Johnson's "Darroch didn't watch the debate" claim:

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.

    How would a corbyn government handle your second scenario with chaos all around? Would they push on regardless with the program or would they attempt to manage it first?

    Push on. Never compromise. Ever. That’s how the far left works. Revolution is destruction of the old order.

    That was my view which makes me wonder how he would get a majority in those circumstances or are the electorate that unthinking?

    Boris Johnson. He is, by far, the best friend Jeremy Corbyn has.
    And vice versa.
    :) Agreed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,826
    I am mostly joking but isn't that in effect what all diplomacy boils down to in the end?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I make another Epstein prediction.

    When his money is eventually counted, it will turn out that he is no billionaire. Indeed, it may turn out to be all a chimera. He may be more Madoff than Soros.

    NYT:

    Jeffrey Epstein’s Fortune May Be More Illusion Than Fact

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/business/jeffrey-epstein-net-worth.html

    And when you think either his or Deutsche Bank's week couldn't get any worse.....

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7236423/Deutcshe-Bank-cut-ties-Jeffrey-Epstein-2-MONTHS-AGO.html
    When Deutsche Bank dumps you, you know it's all going down the pan
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432
    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Nevertheless it would suit Bozo hugely to wave away almost any question on a detail of domestic policy by telling the MP to go ask the relevant minister, as Mrs T used to do, before Blair came along and decided he was more capable to answer all questions than any of his colleagues.

    Am I right in remembering that during Mrs May’s brief honeymoon there were commentators suggesting she might take us back to genuine cabinet government?
    It was Mrs Thatcher and not Tony Blair who first answered all questions. This was (or necessitated if you want to imagine it was not her design) a massive power grab because it meant all departmental business had to flow through Number 10.

    This is why Mrs Thatcher had all those rows with the Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and other ministers. She was running her own economic policy, her own foreign policy, an entire shadow government from Number 10.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    Maybe he'd had a few and was tweeting one-handed:

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
    C) He wants an island airport named after himself?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
    C) He wants an island airport named after himself?
    Isn’t Mrs T already lined up for the name? An idea that doubtless came to the great Bozo on landing at JFK en route to meet his buddy,
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
    C) He wants an island airport named after himself?
    Isn’t Mrs T already lined up for the name? An idea that doubtless came to the great Bozo on landing at JFK en route to meet his buddy,
    Will its official abbreviation be TBW?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,064
    edited July 13
    G

    Good analysis. He's going to be like Brown - he knows he wants to be PM, but won't have a clue what to do when he's there...

    As to the most recent hustings and Neil interview:

    "answer the bloody question!"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-heckler-savages-boris-johnson-18147232

    And so say all most of us!

    Better than May, who because PM only because her carers told her she should be. Yet you spent your days defending her against her incompetence. As you, indirectly, continue to do so.

    HT: her reputation is as unsalvageable as Heaths.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,368
    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
    I'd go for B. But his several references to internet cables suggest he has at least been listening to people's moans while travelling the country.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, Boris might be OK.

    He goes to Brussels and gets some meaningless change of terminology. He offers the DUP £20bn and no gay marriage ever in Northern Ireland. He persuades a few Labour Leavers and the ERG that his changes make it good. And he gets it over the line.

    Boris then ambles along, allowing his ministers to get on with running the country, which Brexit now behind us. The centre and left of the country is split, and Boris manages to be a popular PM who coasts to reelection in 2022.

    ***or***

    The next world economic slowdown hits at exactly the same time as No Deal Brexit. Unemployment soars. A number of Tory MPs quit (or perhaps someone dies or goes to prison) and we see a VoNC pass. There's a General Election and Boris goes into history as reviled figure who lead the Tories to sub fifty seats *and* let Corbyn in.

    How would a corbyn government handle your second scenario with chaos all around? Would they push on regardless with the program or would they attempt to manage it first?

    Push on. Never compromise. Ever. That’s how the far left works. Revolution is destruction of the old order.

    That was my view which makes me wonder how he would get a majority in those circumstances or are the electorate that unthinking?

    Boris Johnson. He is, by far, the best friend Jeremy Corbyn has.
    And vice versa.

    Yep - but the Tories could have broken out of the mutually assured destruction scenario. Johnson is very specifically Corbyn's best friend. Corbyn, on the other hand, would be an immensely valuable ally for any Tory leader.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,451
    JackW said:

    Interesting analysis Herders.

    I tend to the view that Boris is much more lazy than lacking in confidence, although the latter may be a factor in his bluster. Another important factor is the inbred sense of entitlement, that notwithstanding his actions there will always be a way out with someone clearing up the mess and Boris merrily sailing on.

    As Prime Minister there is nowhere to hide. The buck stops with you and the leadership, personal qualities and capabilities that you bring to the table will be scrutinized to the n'th degree. All Boris's weaknesses are about to be laid bare, day in day out.

    Indeed and that is some comfort when set to be lumbered with the buffoon. That and no more of those telegraph fantasy articles...
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,064
    edited July 13

    I am mostly joking but isn't that in effect what all diplomacy boils down to in the end?

    Who is Councillor Green and why is his opinion relevant? Where else has he been correct to show that his judgement is sound?

    Who spends their days trawling Twitter for opinions supporting their own other than bedroom dwellers whose wank socks are over crunchy?i

    Edit - you’re not wrong although bribes and threats are sometimes disguised.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Nevertheless it would suit Bozo hugely to wave away almost any question on a detail of domestic policy by telling the MP to go ask the relevant minister, as Mrs T used to do, before Blair came along and decided he was more capable to answer all questions than any of his colleagues.

    Am I right in remembering that during Mrs May’s brief honeymoon there were commentators suggesting she might take us back to genuine cabinet government?
    It was Mrs Thatcher and not Tony Blair who first answered all questions. This was (or necessitated if you want to imagine it was not her design) a massive power grab because it meant all departmental business had to flow through Number 10.

    This is why Mrs Thatcher had all those rows with the Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and other ministers. She was running her own economic policy, her own foreign policy, an entire shadow government from Number 10.
    That’s probably right, although I think early in her period in office she did handle PMQs in the traditional way?

    A quick Google threw up this page which appears to be an academic template for marking essay questions about the decline in cabinet government:

    http://politicalboffinsatweymouthcollege.blogspot.com/2014/05/to-what-extent-has-cabinet-government.html
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818
    Interesting article, thank you.

    The Tories' problems are a bit wider than their desire to choose a manifest inadequate for their leader and pursue a stupid policy.

    The attached is quite an interesting analysis - https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n13/tom-crewe/short-cuts
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
    I'd go for B. But his several references to internet cables suggest he has at least been listening to people's moans while travelling the country.
    Aren’t people moaning about crumbling existing infrastructure, rather than complaining about the lack of a bridge to Ireland and an airport in the middle of nowhere?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
    D) They should rename HS2 'BorisRail' and he'll be all for it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818
    edited July 13

    For some reason I cannot copy the link. But go to the PoliticsHome homepage and search for an article dated 11 July by Sebastian Whale about Ken Clarke.

    This is what a real Tory politician looks like.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    matt said:

    I am mostly joking but isn't that in effect what all diplomacy boils down to in the end?

    Who is Councillor Green and why is his opinion relevant? Where else has he been correct to show that his judgement is sound?

    Who spends their days trawling Twitter for opinions supporting their own other than bedroom dwellers whose wank socks are over crunchy?
    Who suggested Councillor Green‘s opinion was relevant? You seem to struggle with context online.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    edited July 13
    matt said:

    G

    Good analysis. He's going to be like Brown - he knows he wants to be PM, but won't have a clue what to do when he's there...

    As to the most recent hustings and Neil interview:

    "answer the bloody question!"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-heckler-savages-boris-johnson-18147232

    And so say all most of us!

    HT: her reputation is as unsalvageable as Heaths.
    Heath, who took us into the Common Market?

    Do you think Boris will serve longer than May as PM?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    Onto finer things. I am in the Dales this weekend. Just about to go full English in preparation for a day's hiking, with Tetley's and Timothy Taylor lined up for the evening. Should be a good day!!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169
    The GATT thing last night was brilliant.
    Neil: "Article (sic) 5b…"
    Johnson: "Paragraph 5b. Get the details right Andrew..."

    Neil: "Do you know what paragraph 5c says?"
    Johnson: "No"
    Neil: "And you lecture me about 'details'?"
    Johnson: "Quite right. You didn't even know the difference between a paragraph and an article!"

    So basically we're electing a pedant as PM.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954

    Onto finer things. I am in the Dales this weekend. Just about to go full English in preparation for a day's hiking, with Tetley's and Timothy Taylor lined up for the evening. Should be a good day!!

    I hope the weather is ok!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
    I'd go for B. But his several references to internet cables suggest he has at least been listening to people's moans while travelling the country.
    He only supports big infrastructure projects that won't actually happen. Anything that is actually happening he's promising to ditch.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
    I'd go for B. But his several references to internet cables suggest he has at least been listening to people's moans while travelling the country.
    Aren’t people moaning about crumbling existing infrastructure, rather than complaining about the lack of a bridge to Ireland and an airport in the middle of nowhere?
    If he could get Hammersmith Bridge sorted it would be appreciated. Ta.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    felix said:

    On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.
    It is absolute bollox, Boris had nothing to do with it. Neil is a nasty bit of work and seems to have discovered a penchant for pies recently. He was looking gross. He managed to upset Boris , he kept a wrap on it but his face went up a few shades and you could see he was raging. It was usual shouty rant from Neil , desperate to show what a big shot he was.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    edited July 13
    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    alex. said:

    IanB2 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ha. What a world, where the debate over the prospective PM's hesitancy is over whether he's craven or pathetic.

    Mr. B2, that's possible, Boris as a figurehead whilst people with brains actually do the governing. Worth noting even a figurehead has to be able to appear vaguely competent, though, and not come out with rambling bullshit that isn't in the nation's interest (his comments on the British-Iranian still held in Iran spring to mind).

    F1: Bottas edged Hamilton in second practice yesterday. Wonder how the Finn will do today.

    That is basically how he ran London. Lots of deputy mayors to actually do the boring hard work - a mix of the brighter London Tories and managerial experts often from abroad - while Boris got on with spaffing £millions up the wall on his elephants of many colours.
    Doesn't work with the job of PM because he has to utilise the very narrow pool of MPs as his main source of people to delegate to. And considerations in who to utilise go beyond whether they might actually be any good at doing the job given to them. In fact sometimes the fact that they wouldn't be much good is actually the reason for appointing them!
    Do we think Boris is advocating a massive programme of infrastructure investment for the UK because:

    A ) His in-depth analysis of our current economic situation has identified the need for significant economic stimulus and he has a suite of projects that have passed rigorous cost-benefit analysis ready to go? Or:

    B ) He likes being photographed opening stuff?
    I'd go for B. But his several references to internet cables suggest he has at least been listening to people's moans while travelling the country.
    Aren’t people moaning about crumbling existing infrastructure, rather than complaining about the lack of a bridge to Ireland and an airport in the middle of nowhere?
    If he could get Hammersmith Bridge sorted it would be appreciated. Ta.
    We got a cable car no-one wants to use, a bright red helterskelter, and almost got a bridge that wouldn’t carry any traffic. Stop complaining!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818
    Cyclefree said:


    For some reason I cannot copy the link. But go to the PoliticsHome homepage and search for an article dated 11 July by Sebastian Whale about Ken Clarke.

    This is what a real Tory politician looks like.

    This may work -

    A truly wonderful man. If we end up needing someone to lead a government of national unity in the autumn - and it’s not impossible - we could do a lot worse. https://t.co/qoRvBCDCEa

    — Nick Boles MP (@NickBoles) July 12, 2019
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,064
    edited July 13
    t

    matt said:

    G

    Good analysis. He's going to be like Brown - he knows he wants to be PM, but won't have a clue what to do when he's there...

    As to the most recent hustings and Neil interview:

    "answer the bloody question!"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-heckler-savages-boris-johnson-18147232

    And so say all most of us!

    HT: her reputation is as unsalvageable as Heaths.
    Heath, who took us into the Common Market?

    Do you think Boris will serve longer than May as PM?
    Irrelevant. May was incompetent. Get over it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    Maybe he'd had a few and was tweeting one-handed:

    That personifies the talent level of Tories in Scotland
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,064

    matt said:

    I am mostly joking but isn't that in effect what all diplomacy boils down to in the end?

    Who is Councillor Green and why is his opinion relevant? Where else has he been correct to show that his judgement is sound?

    Who spends their days trawling Twitter for opinions supporting their own other than bedroom dwellers whose wank socks are over crunchy?
    Who suggested Councillor Green‘s opinion was relevant? You seem to struggle with context online.

    matt said:

    I am mostly joking but isn't that in effect what all diplomacy boils down to in the end?

    Who is Councillor Green and why is his opinion relevant? Where else has he been correct to show that his judgement is sound?

    Who spends their days trawling Twitter for opinions supporting their own other than bedroom dwellers whose wank socks are over crunchy?
    Who suggested Councillor Green‘s opinion was relevant? You seem to struggle with context online.
    You posted it so you must have assumed so.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    edited July 13
    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    On this issue surprisingly I'm of the view that Boris's lack of backing should have been completely irrelevant to Darroch's resignation. Through no fault of his own his position was untenable. He had to resign. Blaming it on Boris seems like him playing politics which undermines to a degree my sympathy for him. I'd stress I'm no fan of Boris but to blame him in this instance is to miss the point.
    It is absolute bollox, Boris had nothing to do with it. Neil is a nasty bit of work and seems to have discovered a penchant for pies recently. He was looking gross. He managed to upset Boris , he kept a wrap on it but his face went up a few shades and you could see he was raging. It was usual shouty rant from Neil , desperate to show what a big shot he was.
    Often the trouble with these Scots? ;)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    Excellent article David.

    Boris is totally unsuitable to be PM and it does make you wonder how many conservative mps who put him the last 2 are now having serious regret

    Still we are where we are and we can only hope, as others have said, that his cabinet effectively run their own departments and Boris, for however long he lasts, lets them get on with it

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    Cyclefree said:


    The attached is quite an interesting analysis - https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n13/tom-crewe/short-cuts

    Thanks.

    The only thing we are being asked to place our confidence in is Boris Johnson. Last weekend, a poll found that 59 per cent of voters wouldn’t trust him to sell them a used car. But what do they know?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    malcolmg said:

    Maybe he'd had a few and was tweeting one-handed:

    That personifies the talent level of Tories in Scotland
    At least none of them are in prison.....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    See George Osborne and others launch a full on attack on the Met for looking into the leak

    How out of touch is he (and others) if he thinks the public do not support this investigation 100%
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    IanB2 said:

    I am struck by the fact that literally every smart PB Tory opposes Johnson becoming party leader. That is very telling.

    Smart Tories should f**k off and join the LibDems.

    How often do they need to be told?
    Leave one nasty lot of duffers to join another lying nasty lot who aspire to be duffers. Easily pleased.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169
    edited July 13

    Excellent article David.

    Boris is totally unsuitable to be PM and it does make you wonder how many conservative mps who put him the last 2 are now having serious regret

    Still we are where we are and we can only hope, as others have said, that his cabinet effectively run their own departments and Boris, for however long he lasts, lets them get on with it

    I wouldn't get too hopeful. Depends who he puts in his Cabinet.

    Truss 'getting on' with running the Treasury? IDS back "running" Universal credit? Priti Patel running anything? And he must surely find a place for Fayling.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    edited July 13
    matt said:

    t

    matt said:

    G

    Good analysis. He's going to be like Brown - he knows he wants to be PM, but won't have a clue what to do when he's there...

    As to the most recent hustings and Neil interview:

    "answer the bloody question!"

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-heckler-savages-boris-johnson-18147232

    And so say all most of us!

    HT: her reputation is as unsalvageable as Heaths.
    Heath, who took us into the Common Market?

    Do you think Boris will serve longer than May as PM?
    Irrelevant. May was incompetent. Get over it.
    Lets see how much better her successor does......and I take it you don't think Johnson will serve as long....
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 241
    JackW said:

    Interesting analysis Herders.

    I tend to the view that Boris is much more lazy than lacking in confidence, although the latter may be a factor in his bluster. Another important factor is the inbred sense of entitlement, that notwithstanding his actions there will always be a way out with someone clearing up the mess and Boris merrily sailing on.

    As Prime Minister there is nowhere to hide. The buck stops with you and the leadership, personal qualities and capabilities that you bring to the table will be scrutinized to the n'th degree. All Boris's weaknesses are about to be laid bare, day in day out.

    His laziness and lack of confidence go hand in hand. It is a common self-soothing strategy to be able to claim that you didn't really fail if you didn't really try. It was not my lack of ability, merely my lack of application.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. NorthWales, that sounds very odd.

    What's the rationale?
This discussion has been closed.