Mr. HYUFD, I don't put any weight in a theoretical poll on a potential leader when said leader would face a very difficult challenge, has a history of failure, and hasn't completed a single day of being responsible for the Government.
Think what you want but without Boris and a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and the only alternative is PM Farage and certain No Deal if Brexit is still to be delivered. It is as simple and blunt as that. There is no altrnative
I am a Die Hard 4: Die Harder Remainer but, if we're going to do it, I'd rather have Farage than that corpulent lying psycho Boris at the tiller.
F1: will write this up shortly, but I've split one stake between backing Leclerc for the fastest qualifier at 5.6 (it's lengthened a little just now) on Betfair, with a hedge, and 12 (13 with boost) on Ladbrokes for him to get fastest qualifying lap and the win.
If he starts 1st his win odds will tumble to around 2.5 and he'll be eminently hedgeable.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
the positive thing all of this of course is that Boris is not one who cares too much to honour promises
Yup, as a remainiac it feels quite encouraging: 1) The fact that he promised to leave in October has no particular relationship to what he'll actually do 2) He must be sharp enough to work out that his shambolic optimism schtick only works if there's something to be optimistic about, and would get old very quickly given the economic shitfest + administrative shitshow that would characterize No Deal 3) He's the only person in the Conservative Party who could actually sell them on a referendum
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Hang on a minute - two posts ago you said with that polling showed Conservative wipeout and Farage PM! Make your mind up!
If the Tories extend beyond October 31st and do not deliver Brexit yes, I was talking a pre October 31st General election where Boris seeks a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal
Mr. HYUFD, I don't put any weight in a theoretical poll on a potential leader when said leader would face a very difficult challenge, has a history of failure, and hasn't completed a single day of being responsible for the Government.
Think what you want but without Boris and a Tory majority there will be no Brexit Deal and the only alternative is PM Farage and certain No Deal if Brexit is still to be delivered. It is as simple and blunt as that. There is no altrnative
I am a Die Hard 4: Die Harder Remainer but, if we're going to do it, I'd rather have Farage than that corpulent lying psycho Boris at the tiller.
Fine but as you will vote for neither I doubt Boris cares
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leave
I said no such thing. I am a Mancunian.
But you'd rather have your laws set by Paris than Stoke wouldn't you?
Yes. Definitely. One is an outward looking internationalist city the other is a xenophobic backward looking town. Wouldn't anyone with any sense?
No. Anyone who believes in democracy should not considering one is our country and one is not.
New York is internationalist, so is Sydney. Should we have our laws set by them too?
You were comparing it to Stoke.
Yes. Because you brought up Stoke. It is in our country, Paris is not.
Would you rather have our laws passed by Hartlepool or Sydney?
@Roger is of such moral decrepitude that he thinks Kevin Spacey's victims should consider themselves lucky. His opinions, when not Oscar related, should be ignored.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Hang on a minute - two posts ago you said with that polling showed Conservative wipeout and Farage PM! Make your mind up!
If the Tories extend beyond October 31st and do not deliver Brexit yes, I was talking a pre October 31st General election where Boris seeks a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal
The poll you quoted was “if we haven’t left the EU at the time of the next election”. Not “if there is an election after an extension”.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Mr. Roger, patronising people who disagree with you doesn't win a referendum. As was discovered recently.
If someone said to me that they'd like me to pilot 400 passengers and it was obvious I'd never flown a plane before but they said don't worry give it a go and we crashed I don't think it would be partronising to ask whether I was a fit person to have been in the cockpit.
So only pilots should have the right to vote. It's a view....
Mr. Roger, patronising people who disagree with you doesn't win a referendum. As was discovered recently.
If someone said to me that they'd like me to pilot 400 passengers and it was obvious I'd never flown a plane before but they said don't worry give it a go and we crashed I don't think it would be partronising to ask whether I was a fit person to have been in the cockpit.
So only pilots should have the right to vote. It's a view....
It sounds like Roger would like to go back to 1832 so we don't have to bother consulting the peasants and working class oiks in an election or referendum as clearly they are incapable of making the right decision
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Hang on a minute - two posts ago you said with that polling showed Conservative wipeout and Farage PM! Make your mind up!
If the Tories extend beyond October 31st and do not deliver Brexit yes, I was talking a pre October 31st General election where Boris seeks a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal
The poll you quoted was “if we haven’t left the EU at the time of the next election”. Not “if there is an election after an extension”.
It asked in the header 'Imagine there is a general election in Spring next year' then the scenario where we had not left the EU ie after an extension beyond October 31st
Boris cannot get the Withdrawal Agreement through because he has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on October 31st, so they won't vote for it, and the Opposition parties are are confident that they can stop no deal by other means, or are comfortable with blaming the Tories for no deal.
One side, or the other, will prove to be mistaken, as in March, and there will be hell to pay when we find out which side that is.
The Tories are between a rock and a hard place.
No Deal = economic crisis Delay Brexit = death by a thousand cuts Revoke = Tory obliteration
Their only hope is a Deal, which is now impossible because Boris has promised the ERG that they will get no deal on 31 Oct.
No Boris has promised Brexit Deal or No Deal, not No Deal only
He can only deliver one or neither of them, not both.
Correct but unlike Farage Boris has voted for the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris is not a No Deal diehard like Farage, Baker or Francois all of whom have always rejected the Withdrawal Agreement outright
So he is going to disappoint the No Deal diehards as much as May did?
Maybe but he will deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal unlike May, he will not extend again
In the scenario where he delivers a Brexit Deal, the 'No Deal diehards' will realise they were just used to blackmail Labour MPs into voting for the deal. Do you think they will still back Boris after that?
With a Boris majority of around 30 to 50 which is the only way he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris can ignore the No Deal diehards anyway
So when does he get his majority and how given that he's promised to be out by October 31st and calling an election and Parliament starting up takes 7 weeks?
In September or early October, with a majority he can pass the Withdrawal Agreement in an afternoon
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationally
Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?
It shows that if Boris wins but not by enough to pass the Withdrawal Agreement he will still deliver Brexit regardless with No Deal
That incentivises Brexiteers to vote for the Brexit Party to avoid the risk of him getting a majority to pass the deal.
I have never disputed at least 10 to 15% of voters will still vote Brexit Party regardless as they are not No Deal diehards, that does not prevent a Boris majority
Given that the next leader will be either Johnson or Hunt, shouldn't the Tory lead with no leader specified be some kind of average of the Tory lead with Johnson specified and the Tory lead with Hunt specified.
Instead, the lead changes sign when the leader is specified!
If the former the latter is likely and the Brexit Party becomes the main party of the right, quite possibly with PM Farage
Who is this 'PM Farage' you keep talking about?
Should I know him?
So PM Farage
In coalition with who?
Electoral Calculus gives the Brexit Party 352 seats and a majority of 54 if PM Hunt has not delivered Brexit by the Spring on those numbers with the Tories reduced to just 19 MPs.
With PM Boris not delivering Brexit the Brexit Party is largest party with 283 MPs and Farage PM with most of the rump 33 Tory MPs left and the 10 DUP MPs backing him
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationally
Boris is “the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today” is he?
The Conservatives suffered a 6.5 point swing to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Many Conservative election campaigners did better than that.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationally
So Johnson is even better than the man who wrecked his own career, halved the support of the Tory party and has brought the country to the brink of disaster.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationally
So Johnson is even better than the man who wrecked his own career, halved the support of the Tory party and has brought the country to the brink of disaster.
Yay.
How did Cameron "halve the support of the Tory party"?
I've just had a flick through this thread and out of 200 posts so far only one seems to be a supporter of Johnson. Never has there been such unanimity! Has the site's right wing bias disappeared or can we all discern what a majority of Tory MPs can't?
This site has never been right wing but establishment liberal and anti hard Brexit.
There are other pro Boris posters on PB e.g. Philip Thompson, Gin, Viceroy of Orange etc but the PB consensus has always been anti Boris and I have long been one of the few arguing for him.
However the view amongst Tory members and in the country as a whole is rather more pro Boris than on PB
Just reflect for a moment on the posters who support him. Viceroy of Orange. Gin (who I like very much) and Philip Thompson. The reason we're in this mess is because Blackpool Hartlepool and Stoke were asked a question they didn't have the competence to answer
Are you trying to say northerners are thick and incapable of understanding politics? It is because of people like you that made the UK vote leave
I said no such thing. I am a Mancunian.
But you'd rather have your laws set by Paris than Stoke wouldn't you?
Yes. Definitely. One is an outward looking internationalist city the other is a xenophobic backward looking town. Wouldn't anyone with any sense?
No. Anyone who believes in democracy should not considering one is our country and one is not.
New York is internationalist, so is Sydney. Should we have our laws set by them too?
Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?
It shows that if Boris wins but not by enough to pass the Withdrawal Agreement he will still deliver Brexit regardless with No Deal
That incentivises Brexiteers to vote for the Brexit Party to avoid the risk of him getting a majority to pass the deal.
I have never disputed at least 10 to 15% of voters will still vote Brexit Party regardless as they are not No Deal diehards, that does not prevent a Boris majority
Given that the next leader will be either Johnson or Hunt, shouldn't the Tory lead with no leader specified be some kind of average of the Tory lead with Johnson specified and the Tory lead with Hunt specified.
Instead, the lead changes sign when the leader is specified!
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
The difference between May and Johnson could ultimately be that May went more or less on her own terms, but Johnson could be forced out in chaotic circumstances beyond his control.
Yes and he will deliver Brexit with a Deal, duh. Promising Brexit Deal or No Deal means delivering Brexit with a Deal is exactly what you promised, what a pointless statement.
So what purpose does "... or No Deal" serve other than to con people who don't like the deal into voting for you?
It shows that if Boris wins but not by enough to pass the Withdrawal Agreement he will still deliver Brexit regardless with No Deal
That incentivises Brexiteers to vote for the Brexit Party to avoid the risk of him getting a majority to pass the deal.
I have never disputed at least 10 to 15% of voters will still vote Brexit Party regardless as they are not No Deal diehards, that does not prevent a Boris majority
Given that the next leader will be either Johnson or Hunt, shouldn't the Tory lead with no leader specified be some kind of average of the Tory lead with Johnson specified and the Tory lead with Hunt specified.
Instead, the lead changes sign when the leader is specified!
No it should not. Because to most people May is leader of the Conservative Party and everything else is hypothetical.
There could be some people who would happily back either Hunt or Boris but not May - I am one of those people. Now because I'm a politics geek I'll think it through, others don't.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationally
Boris is “the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today” is he?
The Conservatives suffered a 6.5 point swing to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Many Conservative election campaigners did better than that.
Even that swing was below the Tory to Labour London average
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
I still think Boris can win a majority before October 31st so we will have to disagree there.
I agree though while Boris still wants a Deal he is prepared to go to No Deal to deliver Brexit which May clearly never was
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
I still think Boris can win a majority before October 31st so we will have to disagree there.
I agree though while Boris still wants a Deal he is prepared to go to No Deal to deliver Brexit which May clearly never was
I think he can. I think there is no guarantee whatsoever he will. And the campaign will matter immensely.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
So you are pinning your hopes primarily on Boris Johnson being a better campaigner than Stephen Norris and Zac Goldsmith?
Boris Johnson is the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today, even better than Cameron as he showed when he beat him in the 2016 EU referendum or in 2012 when Boris won London while Ed Miliband's Labour beat Cameron's Tories in the local elections nationally
Boris is “the best Conservative Party election campaigner alive today” is he?
The Conservatives suffered a 6.5 point swing to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Many Conservative election campaigners did better than that.
Even that swing was below the Tory to Labour London average
So, being charitable, Boris is a slightly better than average election campaigner.
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
I still think Boris can win a majority before October 31st so we will have to disagree there.
I agree though while Boris still wants a Deal he is prepared to go to No Deal to deliver Brexit which May clearly never was
I don't think he's willing for one second to go to No Deal. But he's very happy to let Parliament block it rather than do so himself, as he avoids the economic pain of No Deal while loads of plonkers will lap it up as he blathers, "Pwaff! How awful that the wretched scaredlings of Westminster should thwart the People's will! Pwaff, pwarf!"
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
The idea floated here is Johnson's turd polishing skills (his terminology) will see him through. Leavers will see the polish and Remainers won't care any more.
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.
I wouldn't be here if I was complacent.
Please outline how Better Together II are going to win IndyRef2 without Scottish Labour groundtroops and without SLD brains?
They will surely campaign as separate parties - rather than under a single umbrella. Not that I expect another Independence Referendum in the near future.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.
I will be surprised if the Brexit Party comes second there.
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX
Nothing I love more than a complacent Britnat.
I wouldn't be here if I was complacent.
Please outline how Better Together II are going to win IndyRef2 without Scottish Labour groundtroops and without SLD brains?
Agreed. No-one much will argue for the Union next time.
It doesn't mean necessarily that people are crying out for another go or that the SNP will reinvent itself from the Fianna Fáil style party of national establishment and patronage.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.
I will be surprised if the Brexit Party comes second there.
Yes difficult territory to campaign in. Has the count been confirmed for the Friday?
On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
Never mind Brexit, the Tory Party and the union, he will break HYUFD's heart...
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
Macron was the equivalent of a very experienced cabinet minister. Farage is more of a Le Pen outsider.
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.
Putting on my Mr Cynical partisan hat, we can live with hovering c38% If accompanied by a collapse in SCon and SLab support.
A SLD and Brexit Party surge is pretty meaningless in Scotland. At worst we could lose NE Fife. But we’d see a lot of gains from SCon and SLab.
The tactical unwind from SCon back to SLD cripples the former, but barely benefits the latter.
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
Interesting data in the latest YouGov from yesterday. While the Tories lead overall 24% to 21% for the Brexit Party, 20% for Labour and 19% for the LDs there is a clear class divide.
Amongst middle class ABC1s the LDs lead on 25%, with the Tories second on 24%, Labour third on 20% and the Brexit Party only 4th on 16%. However with working class C2DEs the Brexit Party lead on 29%, the Tories are second with 24%, Labour third with 22% and the LDs only 4th with 10%.
So neither the Tories nor Labour are the first preference at the moment for either middle class or working class voters, the former preferring the LDs and the latter the Brexit Party and the Tories only lead overall as they are still second choice for both middle class and working class voters, not Corbyn Labour
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
Interesting data in the latest YouGov from yesterday. While the Tories lead overall 24% to 21% for the Brexit Party, 20% for Labour and 19% for the LDs there is a clear class divide.
Amongst middle class ABC1s the LDs lead on 25%, with the Tories second on 24%, Labour third on 20% and the Brexit Party only 4th on 16%. However with working class C2DEs the Brexit Party lead on 29%, the Tories are second with 24%, Labour third with 22% and the LDs only 4th with 10%.
So neither the Tories nor Labour are the first preference at the moment for either middle class or working class voters, the former preferring the LDs and the latter the Brexit Party and the Tories only lead overall as they are still second choice for both middle class and working class voters, not Corbyn Labour
For a Tory, you seem to react to Brexit Party advances with surprising glee.
I suppose the mortally wounded are relieved as the axeman approaches the chopping block.
Come a General Election, with no departure or promise thereof, some hard anti-EU types will split to BP and some will stay with the Conservatives. That would be significantly exacerbated by tactical anti-Conservative voting.
Cui bono? The Lib Dems, and perhaps Labour (although they have their own voter-repellent problems, thankfully).
Nope, if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by the next general election they will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as will Labour in Labour Leave seats.
Just read Yougov, Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories and Labour 20% if Boris has not delivered Brexit, result is Farage PM.
If Hunt has not delivered Brexit result is Brexit Party 27%, LDs 22%, Tories 19%, Labour 18%.
If we are heading for a GE on that polling the current commons will pass PR in an afternoon.
Maybe but only difference likely to be a Brexit Party and Tory coalition government rather thsn a Brexit Party majority Government on that polling if PR replaced FPTP
Staggering around the radioactive rubble that used to be Epping after Johnson has followed Trump into Bolton's Iranian apocalypse, you will still be clutching a battered print-out of that poll...
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
Is Boris about to grant a Section 30? I’m all ears. What is your source for this?
On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
Boris is the ONLY person who can deliver Brexit AND save the Tory Party by winning a majority, it is as simple as that
Interesting data in the latest YouGov from yesterday. While the Tories lead overall 24% to 21% for the Brexit Party, 20% for Labour and 19% for the LDs there is a clear class divide.
Amongst middle class ABC1s the LDs lead on 25%, with the Tories second on 24%, Labour third on 20% and the Brexit Party only 4th on 16%. However with working class C2DEs the Brexit Party lead on 29%, the Tories are second with 24%, Labour third with 22% and the LDs only 4th with 10%.
So neither the Tories nor Labour are the first preference at the moment for either middle class or working class voters, the former preferring the LDs and the latter the Brexit Party and the Tories only lead overall as they are still second choice for both middle class and working class voters, not Corbyn Labour
For a Tory, you seem to react to Brexit Party advances with surprising glee.
I suppose the mortally wounded are relieved as the axeman approaches the chopping block.
Boris is the only Tory who can beat back most of the Brexit Party advance and get them voting Tory again, without cutting the Brexit Party back the Tories cannot win a majority at the next general election
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.
I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
Is Boris about to grant a Section 30? I’m all ears. What is your source for this?
If #indyref2 doesn't happen next year that would be very bad news for your lot.
Staggering around the radioactive rubble that used to be Epping after Johnson has followed Trump into Bolton's Iranian apocalypse, you will still be clutching a battered print-out of that poll...
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
Is Boris about to grant a Section 30? I’m all ears. What is your source for this?
If #indyref2 doesn't happen next year that would be very bad news for your lot.
All I know is Nicola wants it to happen.
Oh yes. The UK PM pressing the self-destruct button is dreadful news for the SNP. I don’t know how we’ll cope.
Obviously those are poor figures for Labour in Scotland - but the decline from 2017 is - if anything - less than what has taken place across GB as a whole. The poll is now 3 to 4 weeks old and most polls are showing some uptick in Labour poll ratings. Maybe that has also happened in Scotland - up to -say - 20%.
Perhaps. Survation has SLab on 20%. But even 20% would leave Murray as the sole SLab MP. Then factor in that Morningside’s many SCon and SLD supporters are much less likely to lend Murray their tactical votes next time round.
I was unaware of those Survation figures. My own view is that Labour prospects in Scotland next time will depend on what happens across GB. If in an election campaign , Labour recovers to 35% or so - as I expect - with a lead over the Tories, there must be a good chance that Labour's fortunes in Scotland will also improve. It is interesting that the EU election collapse in support for both Labour and the Tories was not accompanied by an SNP surge - but rather a boost for the LibDems and Brexit party. The SNP still seems to be at circa 38%.
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
After 12 years it's a sick joke on the majority of sensible Scots.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
Is Boris about to grant a Section 30? I’m all ears. What is your source for this?
If #indyref2 doesn't happen next year that would be very bad news for your lot.
All I know is Nicola wants it to happen.
Oh yes. The UK PM pressing the self-destruct button is dreadful news for the SNP. I don’t know how we’ll cope.
Is this a SF style threat if you don't get your Section 30. It's been a long time coming.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.
I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability.
However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour.
I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election
No he won't.
Oh yes he will.
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
Boris is the ONLY person who can deliver Brexit AND save the Tory Party by winning a majority, it is as simple as that
Well, assuming he doesn't get VoNC in first 24 hours, we will soon know which of you is correct.
On topic Mr Herson has surely got this right. Boris is tempramentally and intellectually unsuited to leadership and the chances of him successfully delivering Brexit are pretty much nil. Much more likely that he will crash and burn and take both Brexit and the Tory Party with him.
Boris is the ONLY person who can deliver Brexit AND save the Tory Party by winning a majority, it is as simple as that
Well, assuming he doesn't get VoNC in first 24 hours, we will soon know which of you is correct.
On topic. And the phrase “unsubstantiated optimism”
I am beginning to think there is a difference between a politician very popular due to celebrity status, such as popping up on hignfy, imaceleb, celebrity squares, and how credibility and popularity goes from humongous to complete floccinaucinihilipilification (to use Boris Bluestocking and vaguely silly terms) when that politician goes from celebrity to a serious job, and doesn’t work 25 hours a day like Thatcher or have command of detail the electorate will demand.
The problem isn’t making Brexit happen, it’s how, delivering Brexit in a way that doesn’t discredit the Conservative Party for decades. This means working 25 hours a day and having extremely thorough command of all the detail. Otherwise unsubstantiated optimism will be like the iceberg to the titanic.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
Let’s see how they do in B&R, they will come second I think but that’s one constituency and unusual circumstances. They only had to find 70 odd (pun intended) and they came up with some very rum characters can you imagine the back stories of some 650 candidates. UKIP demonstrated the couldn’t win anything in a FPTP election and watching how they failed to effectively campaign in Peterborough given the resources they had seems to show they haven’t learned the basics.
I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability.
However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour.
I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.
I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn is
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.
I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?
Electoral Calculus hazards guesses. It evidently thinks that the Brexit party is particularly strong in Wales: on a 22:22:22:22 split, it picks up 27 out of 40 Welsh seats.
Comments
Betting PostF1: will write this up shortly, but I've split one stake between backing Leclerc for the fastest qualifier at 5.6 (it's lengthened a little just now) on Betfair, with a hedge, and 12 (13 with boost) on Ladbrokes for him to get fastest qualifying lap and the win.
If he starts 1st his win odds will tumble to around 2.5 and he'll be eminently hedgeable.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
1) The fact that he promised to leave in October has no particular relationship to what he'll actually do
2) He must be sharp enough to work out that his shambolic optimism schtick only works if there's something to be optimistic about, and would get old very quickly given the economic shitfest + administrative shitshow that would characterize No Deal
3) He's the only person in the Conservative Party who could actually sell them on a referendum
50% in a poll didn't get a majority: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-hits-magical-50-per-10277463
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Should I know him?
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
Instead, the lead changes sign when the leader is specified!
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=18&LIB=22&Brexit=27&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
With PM Boris not delivering Brexit the Brexit Party is largest party with 283 MPs and Farage PM with most of the rump 33 Tory MPs left and the 10 DUP MPs backing him
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=20&LIB=22&Brexit=24&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
The Conservatives suffered a 6.5 point swing to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Many Conservative election campaigners did better than that.
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
Yay.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Cameron was a great leader.
There could be some people who would happily back either Hunt or Boris but not May - I am one of those people. Now because I'm a politics geek I'll think it through, others don't.
I agree though while Boris still wants a Deal he is prepared to go to No Deal to deliver Brexit which May clearly never was
Last full sample poll of Westminster VI in Scotland
Panelbase/Sunday Times, 18-20 June
SNP 38%
Con 18%
Lab 17%
LD 13%
Bxp 9%
Grn 2%
Baxter has SLab down to one MP again.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
So much hope based on so little evidence. Tragic.
Your beloved SNP have been on c 40 for a decade which means-
A - Separatist majority in Holyrood
B - Separatists losing indyrefX
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
A heroic assumption, it seems to me.
It doesn't mean necessarily that people are crying out for another go or that the SNP will reinvent itself from the Fianna Fáil style party of national establishment and patronage.
So speaks a Britnat, I guess.
A SLD and Brexit Party surge is pretty meaningless in Scotland. At worst we could lose NE Fife. But we’d see a lot of gains from SCon and SLab.
The tactical unwind from SCon back to SLD cripples the former, but barely benefits the latter.
After 12 years in government, to still be c38% is bloody impressive.
However, I concur that what is happening at Westminster at the moment heavily outweighs anything in Edinburgh.
Amongst middle class ABC1s the LDs lead on 25%, with the Tories second on 24%, Labour third on 20% and the Brexit Party only 4th on 16%. However with working class C2DEs the Brexit Party lead on 29%, the Tories are second with 24%, Labour third with 22% and the LDs only 4th with 10%.
So neither the Tories nor Labour are the first preference at the moment for either middle class or working class voters, the former preferring the LDs and the latter the Brexit Party and the Tories only lead overall as they are still second choice for both middle class and working class voters, not Corbyn Labour
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/12/voting-intention-con-24-brex-21-lab-20-lib-dem-19-
The next Tory to try slagging off the Scots, à la Osborne, will be laughed off the park.
And you're wrong about Edinburgh as well. #indyref2 in pencilled in for "later part of 2020"
Scotland's split down the middle and only going to be more divided than ever within months.
I suppose the mortally wounded are relieved as the axeman approaches the chopping block.
PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?
2 - Hamilton
3 - Le Clerc
4 - Verstappen
5 - Gasly
6 - Vettel
All I know is Nicola wants it to happen.
However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour.
I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
Either way Farage is PM
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=19&LAB=18&LIB=22&Brexit=27&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=20&LAB=20&LIB=22&Brexit=24&Green=2&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
I am beginning to think there is a difference between a politician very popular due to celebrity status, such as popping up on hignfy, imaceleb, celebrity squares, and how credibility and popularity goes from humongous to complete floccinaucinihilipilification (to use Boris Bluestocking and vaguely silly terms) when that politician goes from celebrity to a serious job, and doesn’t work 25 hours a day like Thatcher or have command of detail the electorate will demand.
The problem isn’t making Brexit happen, it’s how, delivering Brexit in a way that doesn’t discredit the Conservative Party for decades. This means working 25 hours a day and having extremely thorough command of all the detail. Otherwise unsubstantiated optimism will be like the iceberg to the titanic.