Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election
No he won't.
Oh yes he will.
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak
The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.
PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?
I recall that in late April and early May 2017 some polls had Labour down at 13%/14% with the SNP above 45%.. The result was very different by 8th June! On the same basis, if Labour is on circa 20% now, I could see support rising to circa 30% by the end of a Westminster election campaign . Unionist voters who switched to the Tories in 2017 could return home. The SNP might finish on circa 35%. There would be some interesting results under such a scenario.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election
No he won't.
Oh yes he will.
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election
No he won't.
Oh yes he will.
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
Polls are not gospel, as 2017 demonstrated. Tories were on course for a historic majority when it was called.
This is a totally different scenario, May lost her majority because of a crap campaign and the dementia tax but she still won most votes and seats and stayed PM.
If the Tories break their core promise to deliver Brexit they will be annihilated by Farage and the Brexit Party, it is as simple as that
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election
No he won't.
Oh yes he will.
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
Polls are not gospel, as 2017 demonstrated. Tories were on course for a historic majority when it was called.
This is a totally different scenario, May lost her majority because of a crap campaign and the dementia tax but she still won most votes and seats and stayed PM.
If the Tories break their core promise to deliver Brexit they will be annihilated by Farage and the Brexit Party, it is as simple as that
I was commenting more on your assertion that Farage would be PM in those cases. Isn't it more likely that Labour picks up votes again, as it did in 2017?
Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 28% in Scotland ie same as Tories in 2017 and SNP unchanged too and still well down on its 2015 peak
The SCon vote split in two with the SNP vote holds steady is not good news for your party in a FPTP election.
PM May had 13 SCon MPs to whip. How many will PM Boris have?
I recall that in late April and early May 2017 some polls had Labour down at 13%/14% with the SNP above 45%.. The result was very different by 8th June! On the same basis, if Labour is on circa 20% now, I could see support rising to circa 30% by the end of a Westminster election campaign . Unionist voters who switched to the Tories in 2017 could return home. The SNP might finish on circa 35%. There would be some interesting results under such a scenario.
I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability. However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour. I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.
I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn is
Oh dear, Mr HY. Your predictions are usually wrong. Let`s hope you are right this time!
I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability. However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour. I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.
I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn is
Oh dear, Mr HY. Your predictions are usually wrong. Let`s hope you are right this time!
I don't think he's willing for one second to go to No Deal. But he's very happy to let Parliament block it rather than do so himself, as he avoids the economic pain of No Deal while loads of plonkers will lap it up as he blathers, "Pwaff! How awful that the wretched scaredlings of Westminster should thwart the People's will! Pwaff, pwarf!"
I think this is exactly right.
Which will leave a choice between extension or election.
Which way will he go?
Extension, I would imagine. But hope I'm wrong. We need that election.
Fine, vote LD for EUref2 then given you are now a Remainer.
Will those who simply want us out whatever the cost or the consequences trust Boris to deliver or will they head to Farage whose ideological purity on this cannot be faulted (well, it can)?
If you want No Deal why go for an ersatz version with Boris when electing 250 TBP MPs gets you the real thing.
No Deal diehards ie 10 to 15% of voters will still vote for the Brexit Party but Boris can still win a majority on 32% even with the Brexit Party on 14%
Nope, May pushed the dementia tax disaster etc and was a far worse campaigner than Boris.
Corbyn Labour also loses more votes from 2017 than a Boris led Tory Party on that poll as it loses votes to the LDs and Brexit Party and a few Labour Leavers to Boris
Polls are irrelevant it is votes that matter.
Boris is the only Tory ever to win a London Mayoral election vote (Indeed he did it twice) and Boris also led the Leave campaign that won the EU referendum vote.
Boris knows how to win votes outright unlike May
Indeed but Catch 22 still applies. He won't be trusted by Brexit Party voters until Brexit is delivered, but he can't deliver Brexit under your plan without an election first.
Hence I think instead he is likely to follow the path of seeking a deal while prepping for no deal within this Parliament. Basically dare the EU or Parliament to blink, the EU to agree to a 10 year Gatt 24 transition without a backstop (which he would be able to get through Parliament), or Parliament to back an agreement to avoid no deal.
May tried this but failed as she wasn't taken seriously. Can Boris be?
I still think Boris can win a majority before October 31st so we will have to disagree there.
I agree though while Boris still wants a Deal he is prepared to go to No Deal to deliver Brexit which May clearly never was
I don't think he's willing for one second to go to No Deal. But he's very happy to let Parliament block it rather than do so himself, as he avoids the economic pain of No Deal while loads of plonkers will lap it up as he blathers, "Pwaff! How awful that the wretched scaredlings of Westminster should thwart the People's will! Pwaff, pwarf!"
That is exactly what he will do. If Parliament doesn't block him he will wet himself
Polls when there is not an election produce a response from respondents that are ‘unconsidered’ in that the question has not been given much thought given there isn’t an election tomorrow. So yes ‘Boris’ is easily given as an answer because one does not have to think of the implications of that response. It’s no different to a past labour saying they are going to vote lib or any other possibility. Polls remain nothing more than a snap shot, ands fuzzy one at that, at that particular moment in time. Once an election is actually in progress the responses get more considered and are more likely to reflect the outcome. But you know all that after all I learnt it from you lot or your ilk years ago!😀 can we please remember that at times.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.
I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?
Electoral Calculus hazards guesses. It evidently thinks that the Brexit party is particularly strong in Wales: on a 22:22:22:22 split, it picks up 27 out of 40 Welsh seats.
I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability. However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour. I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.
I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn is
Oh dear, Mr HY. Your predictions are usually wrong. Let`s hope you are right this time!
I was right on Boris becoming next Tory leader
You make so many predictions it would be odd if you weren’t lucky from time to time. Stopped clock syndrome.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election
No he won't.
Oh yes he will.
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
Polls are not gospel, as 2017 demonstrated. Tories were on course for a historic majority when it was called.
This is a totally different scenario, May lost her majority because of a crap campaign and the dementia tax but she still won most votes and seats and stayed PM.
If the Tories break their core promise to deliver Brexit they will be annihilated by Farage and the Brexit Party, it is as simple as that
I was commenting more on your assertion that Farage would be PM in those cases. Isn't it more likely that Labour picks up votes again, as it did in 2017?
Nope, as Labour would be crushed this time losing Remainers to the LDs and Leavers to the Brexit Party. Corbyn managed to appease both Labour Leavers and Remainers in 2017 next time he will infuriate both and be trounced just as a Tories who fail to deliver Brexit would be trounced by Farage
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.
I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?
Electoral Calculus hazards guesses. It evidently thinks that the Brexit party is particularly strong in Wales: on a 22:22:22:22 split, it picks up 27 out of 40 Welsh seats.
The Brexit Party won most seats in Wales in the European Parliament elections
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.
Labour is being propped up by FPTP, it's nothing to be proud of. It's actually quite a sad situation and one day the electorate might just wipe that smug smile off their faces
I’ve got you babe, will bloody be singing it all night now. Beer time I think 32 outside so short walk to the bar to see how my Tory membership focus group lookalikes are tonight.
The Conservative party attitude to proroguing Parliament is reminiscent of Bill Murray grabbing the bewildered groundhog and driving over the quarry edge.
My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.
Labour is being propped up by FPTP, it's nothing to be proud of. It's actually quite a sad situation and one day the electorate might just wipe that smug smile off their faces
38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017
It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.
38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017
It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.
I never said it was a great victory for Leave in Scotland, just pointed out that the idea that all Scots voted Remain is a complete myth, over a third of Scots voted to Leave the EU.
Plus of course the 52% Leave got across the UK was a great victory in comparison to the 45% Yes got in Scotland
My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.
You asked me what had changed. And I answered your query. At no point did I say that you yourself were a Unionist.
I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability. However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour. I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.
I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn is
Oh dear, Mr HY. Your predictions are usually wrong. Let`s hope you are right this time!
I was right on Boris becoming next Tory leader
You make so many predictions it would be odd if you weren’t lucky from time to time. Stopped clock syndrome.
Unfair. HYUFD was saying Boris would win when he was on his third wife long before anyone else thought he had a hope.
38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017
It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.
I think its more that 17,410,742 voting Leave was a great victory for Leave. The 1,018,322 Scots who were part of that were on the winning side.
The 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes and the 1,661,191 Scots voting Remain were losers both times. You may not be happy but you lost fair and square.
My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.
You asked me what had changed. And I answered your query. At no point did I say that you yourself were a Unionist.
The separate strands don't need to campaign together. Leave won the referendum with two separate high profile organisations that refused to work together.
38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017
It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.
I never said it was a great victory for Leave in Scotland, just pointed out that the idea that all Scots voted Remain is a complete myth, over a third of Scots voted to Leave the EU.
Plus of course the 52% Leave got across the UK was a great victory in comparison to the 45% Yes got in Scotland
52% is not a great victory. It is a very narrow victory, which has since been squandered.
55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
I agree - the idea of Farage as PM is pure fantasy. Many of those who voted for the Brexit Party on a frivolous basis in the EU election would not give it serious consideration in a general election. Already some polls have the party down to 14%/15% - little different to UKIP's 2015 vote share. Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
Why is the idea of a new party coming out of nowhere to win power so unbelievable?
Macron did it with En Marche. Don't underestimate how fed up people are with the rank incompetence of the current offerings. If Farage looks like he's able to smash the stale duopoly that has dominated British politics for a century, people may vote for him simply for that reason alone.
The UK FPTP election system makes it much more difficult for new parties to break through - as the SDP discovered in the 1980s.
That's true, although one would expect the Brexit Party's vote to be rather more concentrated in particular areas than the SDP's was in 1983 and 1987.
My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.
You asked me what had changed. And I answered your query. At no point did I say that you yourself were a Unionist.
The separate strands don't need to campaign together. Leave won the referendum with two separate high profile organisations that refused to work together.
But they do. If they work separately they will heavily contradict each other. They’ll be a laughing stock as soon as the campaign gets underway.
My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.
You asked me what had changed. And I answered your query. At no point did I say that you yourself were a Unionist.
The separate strands don't need to campaign together. Leave won the referendum with two separate high profile organisations that refused to work together.
But they do. If they work separately they will heavily contradict each other. They’ll be a laughing stock as soon as the campaign gets underway.
The Leave campaigns contradicted each other. By doing that you can with a straight face tell one group what they want to hear while someone else with a straight face can tell another group what they want to hear.
Of course they'll contradict each other, they're rivals and view politics differently. But that can be settled at elections.
38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017
It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.
I think its more that 17,410,742 voting Leave was a great victory for Leave. The 1,018,322 Scots who were part of that were on the winning side.
The 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes and the 1,661,191 Scots voting Remain were losers both times. You may not be happy but you lost fair and square.
There was nothing fair or square about IndyRef1. First exhibit: the BBC.
My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.
You asked me what had changed. And I answered your query. At no point did I say that you yourself were a Unionist.
The separate strands don't need to campaign together. Leave won the referendum with two separate high profile organisations that refused to work together.
But they do. If they work separately they will heavily contradict each other. They’ll be a laughing stock as soon as the campaign gets underway.
They won't. Vote Leave and Leave.EU had different leaders, Boris and Gove and Farage and different organisers, Cummings and Banks and differed on their approach to Brexit too, they still won the referendum and beat the united Remain campaign 'Britain Stronger in Europe'
I agree with this. TBP(and UKIP) are awful at actually winning elections - no ground game. That is their biggest vulnerability. However the way things are going it might not be Farage who smashes the duopoly. I could easily see the Lib Dems - who are much more experienced at winning elections - overtaking Labour. I think Labour's future may well be a coalition of hardcore socialists and the ethnic minority vote while the Lib Dems replace them as the party of the centre and centre left.
I agree on that, I think Swinson or Umunna are more likely to be the next centre left PM than Corbyn is
Oh dear, Mr HY. Your predictions are usually wrong. Let`s hope you are right this time!
I was right on Boris becoming next Tory leader
You make so many predictions it would be odd if you weren’t lucky from time to time. Stopped clock syndrome.
Unfair. HYUFD was saying Boris would win when he was on his third wife long before anyone else thought he had a hope.
My comments are my own and nothing to do with the Conservative and Unionist Party. I'm a libertarian which is why I support the Tories but I am not and never have been a Unionist.
You asked me what had changed. And I answered your query. At no point did I say that you yourself were a Unionist.
The separate strands don't need to campaign together. Leave won the referendum with two separate high profile organisations that refused to work together.
But they do. If they work separately they will heavily contradict each other. They’ll be a laughing stock as soon as the campaign gets underway.
The Leave campaigns contradicted each other. By doing that you can with a straight face tell one group what they want to hear while someone else with a straight face can tell another group what they want to hear.
Of course they'll contradict each other, they're rivals and view politics differently. But that can be settled at elections.
Thank you for admitting that Leave voters were lied to.
As well as another general election, let's have another Scottish independence referendum. There's nothing wrong with finding out what the people want and accepting their verdict.
38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017
It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.
I never said it was a great victory for Leave in Scotland, just pointed out that the idea that all Scots voted Remain is a complete myth, over a third of Scots voted to Leave the EU.
Plus of course the 52% Leave got across the UK was a great victory in comparison to the 45% Yes got in Scotland
52% is not a great victory. It is a very narrow victory, which has since been squandered.
55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.
Yet both 52% and 55% are great victories, in comparison to the actual defeat which was the 45% Yes got.
38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017
It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.
I never said it was a great victory for Leave in Scotland, just pointed out that the idea that all Scots voted Remain is a complete myth, over a third of Scots voted to Leave the EU.
Plus of course the 52% Leave got across the UK was a great victory in comparison to the 45% Yes got in Scotland
52% is not a great victory. It is a very narrow victory, which has since been squandered.
55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.
Yet both 52% and 55% are great victories, in comparison to the actual defeat which was the 45% Yes got.
Therein lies the explanation for why Brexit, and the Union, failed.
As well as another general election, let's have another Scottish independence referendum. There's nothing wrong with finding out what the people want and accepting their verdict.
Great.
Will PM Boris grant a Section 30? Hunt, Javid etc explicitly said no, but Boris has been suspiciously quiet on this topic.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election
No he won't.
Oh yes he will.
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
Polls are not gospel, as 2017 demonstrated. Tories were on course for a historic majority when it was called.
This is a totally different scenario, May lost her majority because of a crap campaign and the dementia tax but she still won most votes and seats and stayed PM.
If the Tories break their core promise to deliver Brexit they will be annihilated by Farage and the Brexit Party, it is as simple as that
Nothing is as simple as that.
The Conservatives don't have the numbers of foot soldiers they used to, but they are hardly out of the game yet. Both Labour and the Lib Dems have large and fired up memberships. The Brexit Party doesn't even have a branch structure yet. And given that Farage has obviously chosen to avoid taking on any rivals in his own party he's going to have to work like anything to sustain a national campaign.
As well as another general election, let's have another Scottish independence referendum. There's nothing wrong with finding out what the people want and accepting their verdict.
Shall we try 1. Corporal punishment in schools 2. Capital punishment for murder. 3. Castration for sex offenders. That'll separate the men from the boys and keep the Leavers happy.
But they do. If they work separately they will heavily contradict each other. They’ll be a laughing stock as soon as the campaign gets underway.
The Leave campaigns contradicted each other. By doing that you can with a straight face tell one group what they want to hear while someone else with a straight face can tell another group what they want to hear.
Of course they'll contradict each other, they're rivals and view politics differently. But that can be settled at elections.
Thank you for admitting that Leave voters were lied to.
I didn't. They weren't lied to.
Farage is perfectly entitled to say "we should leave and do ABC" Boris is perfectly entitled to say "we should leave and do XYZ" Neither are lying.
If Boris rather than Farage becomes PM then he is perfectly entitled to do XYZ while Farage continues to campaign for ABC. If Farage gets elected he's perfectly entitled to do ABC while others campaign for XYZ.
Polls are not gospel, as 2017 demonstrated. Tories were on course for a historic majority when it was called.
This is a totally differentrty, it is as simple as that
Nothing is as simple as that.
The Conservatives don't have the numbers of foot soldiers they used to, but they are hardly out of the game yet. Both Labour and the Lib Dems have large and fired up memberships. The Brexit Party doesn't even have a branch structure yet. And given that Farage has obviously chosen to avoid taking on any rivals in his own party he's going to have to work like anything to sustain a national campaign.
Farage and every single current Brexit Party activist could spend the entire general election campaign out to lunch and still win the general election if the Tories have not delivered Brexit by then as I barely know a single Tory Party Leave voter and Tory member who will not have defected to the Brexit Party if that were to be the case, it would be Scottish Labour 2015 style wipeout for the Tories if Brexit is not delivered and they extend again
38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017
It never ceases to amaze me that 1,018,322 Scots voting Leave is touted as a great victory for Leave, whereas 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes is touted as a great disaster for Yes.
I think its more that 17,410,742 voting Leave was a great victory for Leave. The 1,018,322 Scots who were part of that were on the winning side.
The 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes and the 1,661,191 Scots voting Remain were losers both times. You may not be happy but you lost fair and square.
There was nothing fair or square about IndyRef1. First exhibit: the BBC.
Oh boo hoo.
You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.
To move the discussion on a fraction, let's suppose Johnson delivers on his commitment but we leave without an agreed WA on 31/10.
I'm presuming,while in Cabinet, he saw the forecasts for the economy in the event of leaving without a WA. He has taken the view for whatever reason (party political self-preservation primarily) the current situation of extensions cannot continue and we have to leave, Deal or No Deal, on 31/10.
His economic plans seem predicated on providing as much stimulus as possible because presumably what he has seen suggests a considerable slowdown in a number of sectors as new rules and regulations come in and economic activity slows or is disrupted. As he has said he wants the economy to be "going gangbusters" on 31/10 so the impact of any slowdown resulting from a dislocation of trade or other activity is mitigated.
Previous attempts to over-stimulate the economy have come unstuck sooner or later either via inflation or by dint of the economy overheating - why is it going to be different this time - at what point will we see interest rate rises or at what point will inflationary pressures start to bear (especially if sterling weakens further) ?
38% of Scots voted to Leave in 2016, 10% more than the 28% who voted for Davidson's Tories in 2017
It never ceasees.
I never said it s got in Scotland
52% is not a great victory. It is a very narrow victory, which has since been squandered.
55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.
Yet both 52% and 55% are great victories, in comparison to the actual defeat which was the 45% Yes got.
Therein lies the explanation for why Brexit, and the Union, failed.
The Union won, Brexit won, it was Nationalists and Remainers who failed
The union is dead man. We just have to accept it. England will eventually become a modern European nation in its own right.
No it is not.
The Union may now be dead for a narrow majority of Scottish Remainers, Curtice has 51% of Scottish Remainers now voting Yes but with 64% of Scottish Leavers still voting No, No is still narrowly ahead overall
The Union may now be dead for a narrow majority of Scottish Remainers, Curtice has 51% of Scottish Remainers now voting Yes but with 64% of Scottish Leavers still voting No, No is still narrowly ahead overall
You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.
If there's one thing that distinguishes the Leave campaign then and now, it's their stoic, stiff upper lipped reluctance to whine about project fear, government bullying and media bias. Most admirable.
To move the discussion on a fraction, let's suppose Johnson delivers on his commitment but we leave without an agreed WA on 31/10.
I'm presuming,while in Cabinet, he saw the forecasts for the economy in the event of leaving without a WA. He has taken the view for whatever reason (party political self-preservation primarily) the current situation of extensions cannot continue and we have to leave, Deal or No Deal, on 31/10.
His economic plans seem predicated on providing as much stimulus as possible because presumably what he has seen suggests a considerable slowdown in a number of sectors as new rules and regulations come in and economic activity slows or is disrupted. As he has said he wants the economy to be "going gangbusters" on 31/10 so the impact of any slowdown resulting from a dislocation of trade or other activity is mitigated.
Previous attempts to over-stimulate the economy have come unstuck sooner or later either via inflation or by dint of the economy overheating - why is it going to be different this time - at what point will we see interest rate rises or at what point will inflationary pressures start to bear (especially if sterling weakens further) ?
How on earth is Johnson going to get the economy "going gangbusters" by end of October. That is three months away. Nothing he does in that time will make more than a scintilla of difference.
For a start he can't get his new CoE to have an emergency budget until at least early september.
The Conservatives don't have the numbers of foot soldiers they used to, but they are hardly out of the game yet. Both Labour and the Lib Dems have large and fired up memberships. The Brexit Party doesn't even have a branch structure yet. And given that Farage has obviously chosen to avoid taking on any rivals in his own party he's going to have to work like anything to sustain a national campaign.
So much depends on where your workers are and whether they will come out so you can get a dozen people canvassing or knocking up for a parish council seat in one area while a District Council seat is lost on a 40% swing because the challenging party can get activists in from other areas.
The question then becomes the extent to which local campaigning can create any kind of "tactical" voting effect.
Looks like #indyref2 is dependent on this section 30 thing that Stuart D keeps dribbling about.
So it's up to Boris really.
How old are you? You have made odd statements in recent weeks that indicate that you are neither of voting age nor Scottish.
We’re used to ill-informed comment on Scottish affairs here at PB, but you really are a cracker.
I will be 40 this year and am born and bred Aberdonian (if a quadroon)
Then how the hell do you not know what a Section 30 is? Nor have the faintest clue as to recent Scottish political history?
Most people on here are interested in politics (and/or betting), but you seem to have come to this blog by accident.
I knew what a Section 30 is/was. It's the thing that Westminister delivers to Holyrood so that they can do things that aren't normally in their power (like hold an indyref)
Truth be told I was checking because a few months ago on World Service they were having a referendums : good or bad debate and one of the experts said that Salmond/Sturgeon didn't need anything from Westminister ; they could just unilaterally declare independence. So I had to check.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.
I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?
The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half.
Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.
It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.
In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:
(a) an absolute boon for the SNP (b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour
To move the discussion on a fraction, let's suppose Johnson delivers on his commitment but we leave without an agreed WA on 31/10.
I'm presuming,while in Cabinet, he saw the forecasts for the economy in the event of leaving without a WA. He has taken the view for whatever reason (party political self-preservation primarily) the current situation of extensions cannot continue and we have to leave, Deal or No Deal, on 31/10.
His economic plans seem predicated on providing as much stimulus as possible because presumably what he has seen suggests a considerable slowdown in a number of sectors as new rules and regulations come in and economic activity slows or is disrupted. As he has said he wants the economy to be "going gangbusters" on 31/10 so the impact of any slowdown resulting from a dislocation of trade or other activity is mitigated.
Previous attempts to over-stimulate the economy have come unstuck sooner or later either via inflation or by dint of the economy overheating - why is it going to be different this time - at what point will we see interest rate rises or at what point will inflationary pressures start to bear (especially if sterling weakens further) ?
How on earth is Johnson going to get the economy "going gangbusters" by end of October. That is three months away. Nothing he does in that time will make more than a scintilla of difference.
For a start he can't get his new CoE to have an emergency budget until at least early september.
It's just more bluster and piffle.
The chances are that we could be in recession by then. A no deal exit at the end of October looks like being worse than a no deal exit at the end of March would have been.
I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?
The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half.
Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.
It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.
In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:
(a) an absolute boon for the SNP (b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour
Efficiency can't be measured in isolation from the results of the other parties.
For example, in 2010, the Lib Dems got 23% of the vote but won less than 9% of the seats. If you shifted 2 million votes from the Tories to UKIP/Brexit Party, suddenly the Lib Dems would win a lot more seats based on exactly the same vote distribution.
To move the discussion on a fraction, let's suppose Johnson delivers on his commitment but we leave without an agreed WA on 31/10.
I'm presuming,while in Cabinet, he saw the forecasts for the economy in the event of leaving without a WA. He has taken the view for whatever reason (party political self-preservation primarily) the current situation of extensions cannot continue and we have to leave, Deal or No Deal, on 31/10.
His economic plans seem predicated on providing as much stimulus as possible because presumably what he has seen suggests a considerable slowdown in a number of sectors as new rules and regulations come in and economic activity slows or is disrupted. As he has said he wants the economy to be "going gangbusters" on 31/10 so the impact of any slowdown resulting from a dislocation of trade or other activity is mitigated.
Previous attempts to over-stimulate the economy have come unstuck sooner or later either via inflation or by dint of the economy overheating - why is it going to be different this time - at what point will we see interest rate rises or at what point will inflationary pressures start to bear (especially if sterling weakens further) ?
The latest Markit manufacturing PMI was 48, having dropped precipitously from 55 in March. This isn't just a Brexit thing, the US and Eurozone PMIs have dropped sharply too.
Prime Minister Johnson could enact an emergency budget where the pedal is pushed to the floor, with tax cuts and spending increases. (Which is, of course, what Trump has implemented in the US.)
It is quite possible that this leads to economic growth recovering somewhat. But it would be a policy of deliberately exacerbating the UK's existing imbalances. Given nations cannot - as Mrs Thatcher noted on a number of occasions - perpetually live beyond their means, this would come home to roost with an even more unpleasant recession in the future. Basically, we (and I include Trump and Johnson both in this) have forgotten the lessons of the 1970s.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
He will be if the Tories extend again and do not deliver Brexit by the next general election
No he won't.
Oh yes he will.
Brexit Party on 277 seats and largest party if Boris extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 41 seats.
Brexit Party majority 54 and 352 seats if Hunt extends again and does not deliver Brexit by the next general election with YouGov and electoral calculus with the Tories collapsing to just 19 seats.
Yougov if we have not left the EU by a Spring general election
With Boris Brexit Party 24% LDs 22% Tories 20% Labour 20%
With Hunt Brexit Party 27% LDs 22% Tories 19% Labour 18%
So PM Farage
Oh Nigel Farage? The kipper chap.
I know we live in strange times but I doubt that he will be PM!
Moreover , the hypothetical polls discussed here ad nauseum are pretty much a waste of time.
As Rob Ford observed, anyone doing seat projections off hypothetical polls is either a knave or a fool.
I'm wondering. With four parties, each on 20% ± 3%, is it more or less beneficial for a party to have uneven support across constituencies? I suspect that some variance is good, but not too much. And has anyone hazarded a guess as to the actual situation across constituencies?
The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half.
Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.
It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.
In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:
(a) an absolute boon for the SNP (b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour
"The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half." I don't think so. If I, as a demiurge, were to distribute votes to maximise (say) the number of Conservative MPs, I would sprinkle them around with just enough to win in as many constituencies as possible. And I agree that there would be zero votes in the losing constituencies. The winners would have perhaps between 25% and 35% in the other constituencies.
As well as another general election, let's have another Scottish independence referendum. There's nothing wrong with finding out what the people want and accepting their verdict.
Shall we try 1. Corporal punishment in schools 2. Capital punishment for murder. 3. Castration for sex offenders. That'll separate the men from the boys and keep the Leavers happy.
The perfect situation is to have 0% in half of constituencies, and 40% in the other half.
Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.
It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.
In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:
(a) an absolute boon for the SNP (b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour
Sound enough conclusions I suspect. But it seems to me that swing to LD will correlate with Remain, which suggests their vote distribution will be a little more concentrated than we're used to seeing.
Comments
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1150012903766003712
On the same basis, if Labour is on circa 20% now, I could see support rising to circa 30% by the end of a Westminster election campaign . Unionist voters who switched to the Tories in 2017 could return home. The SNP might finish on circa 35%. There would be some interesting results under such a scenario.
If the Tories break their core promise to deliver Brexit they will be annihilated by Farage and the Brexit Party, it is as simple as that
The main people who care about this are his centre left opponents
And, unsurprisingly, Unionists won’t touch them with a shitty stick.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-labour-ditch-better-together-17483692
Good luck with that.
Which will leave a choice between extension or election.
Which way will he go?
Extension, I would imagine. But hope I'm wrong. We need that election.
Plus of course the 52% Leave got across the UK was a great victory in comparison to the 45% Yes got in Scotland
The 1,617,989 Scots voting Yes and the 1,661,191 Scots voting Remain were losers both times. You may not be happy but you lost fair and square.
55% for No was also a very narrow victory, which has also been squandered.
Of course they'll contradict each other, they're rivals and view politics differently. But that can be settled at elections.
Will PM Boris grant a Section 30? Hunt, Javid etc explicitly said no, but Boris has been suspiciously quiet on this topic.
The Conservatives don't have the numbers of foot soldiers they used to, but they are hardly out of the game yet. Both Labour and the Lib Dems have large and fired up memberships. The Brexit Party doesn't even have a branch structure yet. And given that Farage has obviously chosen to avoid taking on any rivals in his own party he's going to have to work like anything to sustain a national campaign.
Shall we try 1. Corporal punishment in schools 2. Capital punishment for murder. 3. Castration for sex offenders. That'll separate the men from the boys and keep the Leavers happy.
Farage is perfectly entitled to say "we should leave and do ABC"
Boris is perfectly entitled to say "we should leave and do XYZ"
Neither are lying.
If Boris rather than Farage becomes PM then he is perfectly entitled to do XYZ while Farage continues to campaign for ABC. If Farage gets elected he's perfectly entitled to do ABC while others campaign for XYZ.
The Union won a reprieve in 2014. Nothing more.
You lost fair and square. Scots were too frit to stand up to be independent twice now. They're too frit to be independent of the EU and too frit to be independent of the English. To make matters worse the English aren't afraid of independence. That must really wind you up.
To move the discussion on a fraction, let's suppose Johnson delivers on his commitment but we leave without an agreed WA on 31/10.
I'm presuming,while in Cabinet, he saw the forecasts for the economy in the event of leaving without a WA. He has taken the view for whatever reason (party political self-preservation primarily) the current situation of extensions cannot continue and we have to leave, Deal or No Deal, on 31/10.
His economic plans seem predicated on providing as much stimulus as possible because presumably what he has seen suggests a considerable slowdown in a number of sectors as new rules and regulations come in and economic activity slows or is disrupted. As he has said he wants the economy to be "going gangbusters" on 31/10 so the impact of any slowdown resulting from a dislocation of trade or other activity is mitigated.
Previous attempts to over-stimulate the economy have come unstuck sooner or later either via inflation or by dint of the economy overheating - why is it going to be different this time - at what point will we see interest rate rises or at what point will inflationary pressures start to bear (especially if sterling weakens further) ?
Red on Red at the Durham Gala this afternoon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters#List_of_reserved_matters
Looks like #indyref2 is dependent on this section 30 thing that Stuart D keeps dribbling about.
So it's up to Boris really.
We’re used to ill-informed comment on Scottish affairs here at PB, but you really are a cracker.
For a start he can't get his new CoE to have an emergency budget until at least early september.
It's just more bluster and piffle.
The question then becomes the extent to which local campaigning can create any kind of "tactical" voting effect.
Most people on here are interested in politics (and/or betting), but you seem to have come to this blog by accident.
Truth be told I was checking because a few months ago on World Service they were having a referendums : good or bad debate and one of the experts said that Salmond/Sturgeon didn't need anything from Westminister ; they could just unilaterally declare independence. So I had to check.
Based on the experience of the last 50 years, Labour has the vote that most looks like that, while BXP (assuming their vote distribution looks like UKIP's) has the most evenly spread.
It is difficult to know how uniform the LD vote share will be. My guess is that they'll be some way away from the efficiency of 2010, and will therefore be third in terms of concentration.
In other words, a poll with four parties in the 18-24% range is:
(a) an absolute boon for the SNP
(b) probably surprisingly OK for Labour
So, they may be heading for a landslide... but in four years time.
For example, in 2010, the Lib Dems got 23% of the vote but won less than 9% of the seats. If you shifted 2 million votes from the Tories to UKIP/Brexit Party, suddenly the Lib Dems would win a lot more seats based on exactly the same vote distribution.
Prime Minister Johnson could enact an emergency budget where the pedal is pushed to the floor, with tax cuts and spending increases. (Which is, of course, what Trump has implemented in the US.)
It is quite possible that this leads to economic growth recovering somewhat. But it would be a policy of deliberately exacerbating the UK's existing imbalances. Given nations cannot - as Mrs Thatcher noted on a number of occasions - perpetually live beyond their means, this would come home to roost with an even more unpleasant recession in the future. Basically, we (and I include Trump and Johnson both in this) have forgotten the lessons of the 1970s.
I don't think so. If I, as a demiurge, were to distribute votes to maximise (say) the number of Conservative MPs, I would sprinkle them around with just enough to win in as many constituencies as possible. And I agree that there would be zero votes in the losing constituencies. The winners would have perhaps between 25% and 35% in the other constituencies.