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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat
In two weeks’ time, Britain will have a Prime Minister whose commitment to democracy is contingent. Boris Johnson has repeatedly refused to rule out proroguing Parliament in order to secure a no deal Brexit by 31 October 2019.
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Thanks for the header, Alistair. Although your postscript sounded quite ominous.
near impossible anyway?
I'm not convinced that the EU would accept the UK back in, unless membership carried broad cross party support like it used to; somewhere around 70 / 30 type numbers.
Why would the EU want to accept the UK with an explicitly anti EU conservative party likely to come to power at some point and start the whole process again.
I'm disappointed that consensus for a deal couldn't be reached. Labour stood in 2017 on a platform to respect the referendum vote and then voted down every deal that was put before the house.
The strategy of demanding socialist unicorns and cake wasn't about the national interest, it was about playing politics and bringing down the tories. The nutters on the tory back benches were always going to demand purity, but there should have been enough adults on the Labour benches to get a deal through.
At least May tried, even though it was political suicide, Corbyn was happy to watch Rome burn if he could be emperor of the ashes.
E&W not so much; The EU would be signing up to play Russian roulette for ever, one wrong election result and they're back in the same drama.
Frankly, the benefits of E&W membership don't outweigh the risks and hassles for the EU.
How is the pitch likely to hold up
Wales ditto.
Possibly more Tories who were happy with it voted Labour's down because it was Labours than Labour MPs voted down May's brexit deal because it was the Tories deal.
I disagree with this. Prorogation wouldn't come out of the blue. Indeed, we're talking about it now. If the MPs have not acted to stop it from happening, I don't see why they'd act after it's happened.
Instead we come down to no deal vs revoke, with both sides blaming the other for intransigence. It's all very unsatisfactory.
Well, this is news to me. Maybe PB is already aware.
F1: ha. Considered two, and picked the wrong one. But there we are. The hedge got matched, though, making it flat.
Will peruse the markets for value shortly, after my infusion of coffee.
But, the soft Brexit option Ken Clarke put forwards could have passed easily if May had backed it (probably also true of several of the other options). But that probably also would have meant sacrificing her career.
Fresh air? Where?
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/07/uk-pre-race-2019.html
What is more worrying is that a strong leadership contender found it unwise to rule it out, since unwillingness to rule out an obviously bonkers idea is not a very promising characteristic for a leader. The Tory leadership contest has been dominated by the concept, "Tell me what you want and I'll pretend to agree with you". The outcome is that almost nobody on any side of the debate feels any degree of confidence in predicting what the new government will actually do. That, too, is unhealthy in a democracy.
Fantasy. With a side-order of twaddle.
On the header graphic from Vote Leave. The EU Court is a line of defence for a country that is part of the EU system but has no representation in it. It protects our citizens and businesses from arbitrary treatment by requiring EU counterparties to follow the same rules we do. Norway is very clear about the importance of the EU Court in maintaining a level playing field (The EFTA Court is nominally a separate institution from the CJEU).
You voted for it.
Suck it up...
Of course proroguing Parliament is not ideal but if Parliament refuses to pass the Withdrawal Agreement, which it has rejected 3 times and continues to prefer further extension or even revoking Article 50 altogether to leaving with No Deal then there is no alternative. In any case as I understand the intention would be merely to prorogue Parliament at the end of October to force Brexit and No Deal through as a last resort to ensure we do actually leave the EU on October 31st with the expectation of a general election then in November
Or even 21?
Considering that the payroll vote, you know, didn't vote. And most of the "against" were Tories who could have been arm-twisted.
Did you not notice the indicative votes at all?
That’s what we’ll all be saying if Boris Johnson carries out this constitutional obscenity.
For £40.000 a year school you'd hope every girl would have their own swimming pool
But I have read the story and I still don't see how he can afford it. Nor does he declare a scholarship in his register of interests. (https://present.brighton-hove.gov.uk/mgDeclarationSubmission.aspx?UID=114074&HID=2907&FID=0&HPID=28895003)
May tried (1) and (2) but she never seriously tried (3), and it's unreasonable to expect any opposition to sign up to (2). In fairness she'd probably have been forced out by her own party if she'd offered to give up the key customs union red line. But that's not the Opposition's fault either.
Plus neither Clarke's CU or SM 2.0 enable the Canada style FTA with the EU most voters want
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
Rather, they could have been able to point to ongoing Tory infighting about the actual form of Brexit, suck air through teeth and mutter to nodding heads "wouldn't have done it like that myself...". All the while, the LibDems ploughing their lonley furrow as the party of Rejoin.
But of course, snide little sorties are your forte.
Or a second referendum?
Because it seems to me that the country has changed its mind and now does not wish to proceed with Brexit and absolutely not with a no deal.
So using a constitutional coup to ram through a policy which most people now think is at best wrong headed will lead to much bigger demonstrations than last time... only this time they are likely to be carrying torches and burning Conservatives in effigy. Anyone who actively contemplates this anti democratic coup may well end up being hanged from the highest tree.
He's quite likeable when he takes the poker out of his bum.
If voters want to back a second referendum they can vote Labour or LD at the next general election but Brexit has to be delivered to respect democracy, if it is not and we extend again the only people being burned in effigy and hung from the nearest tree will be diehard Remainers
Seriously?
MV3 was after the most aggressive and sustained whipping campaign possible, and it fell short by a lot.
MV1 was a bit closer to the "natural" and pre-whipped state of the House's feeling, but still heavily whipped. That sort of whipping operation on CU would certainly have got it over the line.
One of the most concerning aspects is the way the No Dealers seem so insouciant about the use Corbyn and co might make of the powers they propose using to push through a No Deal Brexit. On the one hand, they think he is very dangerous and must be kept at all costs out of No 10 and, on the other, will happily set a constitutional precedent which, if he did become PM, would truly make him dangerous.
As I put it in my own thread header the other day:
“one policy (Brexit, enacted in one particular way) is seen as so important that virtually anything is acceptable to achieve it, including proroguing Parliament. That this might undermine the very institutions and conventions which any democratic and stable society requires to function, especially if in the hands of political opponents, seems irrelevant. No-one seems to ask themselves the question: “Would I want my opponent to have this power? If no, I should not have it either.”
Prorogation of Parliament should simply be out of the question for any democratic politician. That it isn’t, that Boris won’t rule it out, is - as @NickPalmer has also observed - an indication of the unfitness for office of both Boris and his Parliamentary supporters.
in any case Deal plus Customs Union does not enable us to do our own trade deals and is not therefore Brexit and May would have been toppled as Tory leader within 5 minutes had she even tried to whip it as whipped or not a comfortable majority of Tory MPs would still have voted against it and indeed had she whipped for it most Labour and LDs and SNP MPs would also have voted against it as another 'Tory Brexit' without EUref2 anyway
The point being made is whether May could have got a different approach past by shipping differently, the capitalised parts are key in gauging what won a hypothetical popularity contest, and it seems fairly likely that MV3 didn't.
It ended with two civil wars, a revolution in 1688, plus several invasions of and from Scotland and Ireland until 1746.
The alternative is to elect a majority of MPs who will vote for no deal. That's how our democracy works.
I would rather have PM Farage, elected on a manifesto of no deal, than PM Johnson prorogue Parliament to achieve the same. Can you not see the difference?
As it happens, I am confident that even a politician as free from principle and integrity as Boris Johnson will not go anywhere near such an outrage.
What he will do (IMO) is agree an extension and try to pass the Withdrawal Agreement. Sooner or later, the essential truth - that we must ratify the WA in order to deliver Brexit - will surely dawn and prevail.
It did not happen on TM's watch, sadly for her, but perhaps it will on BoJo's.
https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2019-07-07/constable-seascape-found-by-pupil-in-schools-old-store-cupboard/
What the Bozo appears to be lining up is an extension once he has got (or is on the way toward) what he expects to be able to sell as a good deal. Once we have this there is no need to bluff about the exit date, he'll say.
I doubt this will wash with the Tory unwashed but, by then, what choice will they have other than to swallow it?
I suppose when you got your biggest job through nepotism your values become skewed.
Here's what he told my sister. The people on his patch who he knows actually turn out to vote are pretty much leavers, That is a really good point. It is worth remembering just how unlikely the situation we find ourselves in is. Remember the days when May was riding high in the polls and 100 seat majorties were being forecast? I thought then that her position wasn't as strong as it appeared because it was vulnerable to a revival by either the Lib Dems on one side or UKIP on the other. Neither seemed especially likely. Both simultaneously?
If not I understand the Boris team will prorugue Parliament in October to force Brexit on October 31st with No Deal and no further extension or revoke with a snap general election in November after Brexit has been delivered