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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first post leadership elections’ poll has Swinton’s party the main gainer and LAB below 20%

New YouGov carried out after Johnson win has the LDs the big gainerCon 25% (-)Lab 19% (-2)Lib Dem 23% (+3)Brexit 17% (-2)Green 9% (+1)

Read the full story here

Tabman

First, like Jo (no Bo)

Understandable - Johnson hasn't been out of the news; the LD election put them in it.

tlg86

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

HYUFD

Good result for the LDs, absolutely abysmal for Labour. Would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.

Tories still largest party but need to deliver Brexit to get enough Brexit Party voters back to them for a majority

HYUFD

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

AndyJS

England bowled out for 85 before lunch by Ireland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47324462

Philip_Thompson

AndyJS said:

England bowled out for 85 before lunch by Ireland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47324462

As impressive as May's tenure in Downing Street.

MarqueeMark

Possible that enough tribal Labour voters stick with them at the next election to deliver Labour 20%, LibDems 20%, Tories 35%.

Boris might yet crawl from the wreckage as a very fortunate PM.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG63OtsKC7k

SirNorfolkPassmore

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

It's vanishingly unlikely, though. Swinson has a 10% majority, people tend to like having a party leader as MP, and presumably the Lib Dems doing "really well" would involve their national vote share at least doubling. It's fantasy that she'd lose with that backdrop.

DecrepitJohnL

Is this one of those ghost threads? It seems to have disappeared already. Is there something else happening today?

Philip_Thompson

HYUFD said:

Good result for the LDs, absolutely abysmal for Labour. Would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.

Tories still largest party but need to deliver Brexit to get enough Brexit Party voters back to them for a majority

Making any predictions on seats at these levels is an absolute mugs game. Much would change during the election campaign as support would crystalise for or against certain parties.

kinabalu

HYUFD said:

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?

MikeSmithson

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?

You mean like LAB

JackW

Just caught up with the last few minutes of PMQ's ... a tearful Theresa May leaves the chamber as Bercow offers his thanks for her service.

tlg86

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

It's vanishingly unlikely, though. Swinson has a 10% majority, people tend to like having a party leader as MP, and presumably the Lib Dems doing "really well" would involve their national vote share at least doubling. It's fantasy that she'd lose with that backdrop.

The election in Scotland could easily be very different to that of England and Wales. Indeed, that's been the case in the last two elections.

It's interesting that Swinson didn't do that much better in 2017 than in 2015. Unlike some seats in Scotland, it was obvious who the anti-SNP candidate was in East Dunbartonshire. It might be tempting for Labour voters in particular to lend their vote to the SNP.

JackW

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?

He's going back to lead the Labour party ?!?

kle4

AndyJS said:

Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.

I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.

So I'd lighten up. It is not as firm a rule as you think it is, and one might even suggest it is the tradition of the house to permit it on such occasions and your view to be so rigid flouts that tradition.

JackW

MikeSmithson said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?

You mean like LAB

The mighty OGH beats me to the draw ....

WhisperingOracle

"Labour has been holding secret talks with Tory Remainer rebels over working together to collapse Boris Johnson's government within weeks if he attempts a No Deal Brexit, a shadow minister claimed today.

Barry Gardiner said that the opposition had been discussing the 'nuclear option' of supporting a no confidence vote in Mr Johnson's Brexiteer administration."

SirNorfolkPassmore

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.

kle4

JackW said:

Just caught up with the last few minutes of PMQ's ... a tearful Theresa May leaves the chamber as Bercow offers his thanks for her service.

Thanks that he has managed to see the back of her more like. Respect can be there even when people dislike one another but while expected we know many of the statements today are wholly insincere.

williamglenn

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?

It would be interesting to see odds on 'Last PM of the UK' and 'First PM of England'.

Stereotomy

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.

I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.

So I'd lighten up. It is not as firm a rule as you think it is, and one might even suggest it is the tradition of the house to permit it on such occasions and your view to be so rigid flouts that tradition.

Are we doing Gormenghast roleplay? Why is this even a discussion?

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/Aggerscricket/status/1154000404004446208

The England cricket team would like to apologise to all who thought that they were a great side.

SirNorfolkPassmore

tlg86 said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

It's vanishingly unlikely, though. Swinson has a 10% majority, people tend to like having a party leader as MP, and presumably the Lib Dems doing "really well" would involve their national vote share at least doubling. It's fantasy that she'd lose with that backdrop.

The election in Scotland could easily be very different to that of England and Wales. Indeed, that's been the case in the last two elections.

It's interesting that Swinson didn't do that much better in 2017 than in 2015. Unlike some seats in Scotland, it was obvious who the anti-SNP candidate was in East Dunbartonshire. It might be tempting for Labour voters in particular to lend their vote to the SNP.

You bet on it if you like... I'll pass!

kle4

AndyJS said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AndyJS said:

Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

You do not seem to have any sense of proportion

I disagree with you. Don't you care about traditions in places like the House of Commons?

A standing ovation for a PM's final PMQs is now a tradition in the House of Commons though. A relatively new tradition but it is a tradition now nonetheless.

Well I think it's wrong.

Well tough. First you cared about tradition but now you see the tradition is not what you thought you change your rationale and now dont care about tradition.

I dont think they should generally clap, I like the odd little traditions of the house, but it is not out of order under the rules as like most British conventions its flexible.

Tabman

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Good result for the LDs, absolutely abysmal for Labour. Would be the worst Labour election result since 1935 in terms of seats and since 1910 in terms of voteshare.

Tories still largest party but need to deliver Brexit to get enough Brexit Party voters back to them for a majority

Making any predictions on seats at these levels is an absolute mugs game. Much would change during the election campaign as support would crystalise for or against certain parties.

Indeed. Trends are your friends, but the awful postal vote muddies the water as it crystalises too early.

kinabalu

MikeSmithson said:

You mean like LAB

I'm going by seats currently held rather than speculative future scenarios.

surbiton19

https://twitter.com/surbiton19/status/1154003208488005632

HYUFD

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.

No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.

Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories

OblitusSumMe

We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?

AndyJS

OblitusSumMe said:

We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?

It's a dangerous situation for Labour if the main party battle comes to be seen as Con vs LD.

kinabalu

JackW said:

He's going back to lead the Labour party ?!?

He's more likely to be Con leader one day.

In fact ...

HYUFD

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?

On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour

Mysticrose

OblitusSumMe said:

We might see the Lib Dems leading in the polls if they have a bounce after winning the by-election. I wonder if a few Tory MPs might suspect that they were worried about the wrong threat when they panicked about the Brexit Party?

Yep.

Because power in this country is ALWAYS won by winning the centre ground. Sorry for the shouty bit but it's true. If you don't reach out to the centre, you won't win.

Which leaves Johnson hamstrung. I actually think part of him is One Nation leaning but he's gone and pitched to the Brexit loons on the far right.

DecrepitJohnL

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.

I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.

So I'd lighten up. It is not as firm a rule as you think it is, and one might even suggest it is the tradition of the house to permit it on such occasions and your view to be so rigid flouts that tradition.

Erskine May's injunction about not making noise is long lost to orchestrated barracking by all sides during PMQs.

Foxy

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.

No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.

Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories

Why are you so sure that those Tory to LD switchers in East Dunbartonshire were tactical, rather than genuine switchers?

The SLDs had a low poll in Scotland last time, but good focus got them 4 seats as I recall.

I think that on aboard infested by the yellow peril, you are the only one forecasting Chukka as next leader, and do not have either a vote or insight in the party.

tlg86

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.

At the last election the Lib Dems gained Bath on a swing of 10% and lost Leeds North West on a swing of 8%.

I'm not saying this is going to happen, but I was on the winning side of bets on those two seats at the last election. Do not rule out more swings and counter swings next time.

dr_spyn

West Indies all out 25 v Ireland.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/17282/scorecard/301112/ireland-vs-west-indians-west-indies-tour-of-england-and-ireland-1969

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1154005372753129474

justin124

I never accuse Yougov of being pro -Tory , but it is certainly out of line with other pollsters - and the only pollster to understate Labour at the EU election. . Moreover this has happened before! In the early Autumn of 2016 Yougov suddenly went from recording Labour's best poll ratings to registering its lowest. That continued for six to seven months until the last week of April 2017 when - shortly after the election announcement - for some reason its results fell into line with other pollsters. Very puzzling really.

williamglenn

A classy contribution from Harriet Harman at the end of PMQs.

numbertwelve

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?

On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour

It would be lovely to see the LDs supplant the Labour Party as the primary party of the centre left in this country. However, we have been here before re the LDs and polls so a pinch of caution is advised...

surbiton19

AndyJS said:

England bowled out for 85 before lunch by Ireland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47324462

They finally heard that Boris is becoming PM today.

DavidL

Not a great start for Boris. May won the CWC!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1154006316471508993

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1154003729634476032

Remain or leave or just bloody incontinent?

AndyJS

According to this report Mrs May will head to Buckingham Palace at 2:30pm. Boris Johnson will arrive there at about 3:30pm.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/105517/explained-how-historic

surbiton19

justin124 said:

I never accuse Yougov of being pro -Tory , but it is certainly out of line with other pollsters - and the only pollster to understate Labour at the EU election. . Moreover this has happened before! In the early Autumn of 2016 Yougov suddenly went from recording Labour's best poll ratings to registering its lowest. That continued for six to seven months until the last week of April 2017 when - shortly after the election announcement - for some reason its results fell into line with other pollsters. Very puzzling really.

When elections approach there is a tendency to join the "herd". Most do it. If I remember correctly, only Survation was the "outlier" until YouGov's 50000 came in.

Pulpstar

I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

DecrepitJohnL

OT Mueller on telly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-49078559

justin124

surbiton19 said:

justin124 said:

I never accuse Yougov of being pro -Tory , but it is certainly out of line with other pollsters - and the only pollster to understate Labour at the EU election. . Moreover this has happened before! In the early Autumn of 2016 Yougov suddenly went from recording Labour's best poll ratings to registering its lowest. That continued for six to seven months until the last week of April 2017 when - shortly after the election announcement - for some reason its results fell into line with other pollsters. Very puzzling really.

When elections approach there is a tendency to join the "herd". Most do it.

But the shift occurred right at the beginning of that 7 week campaign. 'Herding' is more likely in the final days leading up to Polling Day.

Brom

"What they cease to highlight is that for the vast majority of its existence YouGov’s president, was Peter Kellner who is was married to a Labour peer and is himself a long standing LAB backer" - I'm pretty sure he's not a Corbyn backer though.

Whether you believe yougov bias or not, it's fair to believe many within Labour currently want their own party to fail.

TOPPING

btw I know Tilda is a fantastic actress but I'm not sure she has entered politics formally?

SirNorfolkPassmore

tlg86 said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.

At the last election the Lib Dems gained Bath on a swing of 10% and lost Leeds North West on a swing of 8%.

I'm not saying this is going to happen, but I was on the winning side of bets on those two seats at the last election. Do not rule out more swings and counter swings next time.

But the Lib Dems were treading water in national share at that election (indeed, down a shade in vote share). Your point is premised on the Lib Dems doing "really well" nationally.

Even with significant differential swings (which I accept are possible) it's really hard to lose a pretty healthy majority against that backdrop.

ExiledInScotland

surbiton19 said:

AndyJS said:

England bowled out for 85 before lunch by Ireland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47324462

They finally heard that Boris is becoming PM today.

We don't have to play Ireland in person. The game can be held away from the pitch, with average player scores used instead but with the odd check of a player against a bowler on a risk assessed basis. This Trusted Player system could be in place this afternoon.

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?

justin124

surbiton19 said:

justin124 said:

I never accuse Yougov of being pro -Tory , but it is certainly out of line with other pollsters - and the only pollster to understate Labour at the EU election. . Moreover this has happened before! In the early Autumn of 2016 Yougov suddenly went from recording Labour's best poll ratings to registering its lowest. That continued for six to seven months until the last week of April 2017 when - shortly after the election announcement - for some reason its results fell into line with other pollsters. Very puzzling really.

When elections approach there is a tendency to join the "herd". Most do it. If I remember correctly, only Survation was the "outlier" until YouGov's 50000 came in.

If you care to look at the Polling Tables from Summer 2016 to June 2017, I suspect you will see what I am referring to.

Mysticrose

This is so good:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1154000762499928064?s=20

Brom

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?

all it takes is the Tories to not campaign and Swinson is probably a gonner. Which is one reason they should have picked Davey who has zero chance of losing his seat.

TheScreamingEagles

Can someone tell Jacob Rees-Mogg that Europe have just bowled out England for 85 at Lord’s?

Three catches by the backstop too.

twistedfirestopper3

TOPPING said:

btw I know Tilda is a fantastic actress but I'm not sure she has entered politics formally?

If even arch LDer OGH can't remember her name she's got no chance.

Peter_the_Punter

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?

When the day comes, it will be interesting to see how Shadsy prices Swinson and Johnson in their respective seats. Right this minute I would say she would be the more likely of the two to hold, but much is likely to change all that.

AndyJS

Does anyone think Boris Johnson will last longer than 3 years as PM?

SandyRentool

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?

On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour

Well Jezza certainly wouldn't be a 'centre-left' PM!

logical_song

AndyJS said:

Does anyone think Boris Johnson will last longer than 3 years as PM?

Years or months?

Brom

Peter_the_Punter said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?

When the day comes, it will be interesting to see how Shadsy prices Swinson and Johnson in their respective seats. Right this minute I would say she would be the more likely of the two to hold, but much is likely to change all that.

The benefit for Johnson is his main opposition are a Labour party that wont as perform as well as in 2017, the problem for Swinson is she faces an SNP that will probably perform better than 2017. She should be favourite to hold but could easily be decapitated.

Mysticrose

The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

LibDems are surging.

Brom

TheScreamingEagles said:

Can someone tell Jacob Rees-Mogg that Europe have just bowled out England for 85 at Lord’s?

Three catches by the backstop too.

Murtagh is English in fairness

Martin_Kinsella

Mysticrose said:

The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

LibDems are surging.

Nurse, nurse, they're awake.

justin124

The crossbreaks on the Yougov poll surprise a bit - given the headline figures - in that Labour appears to have a clear lead in London for the first time since the EU election.

Brom

Mysticrose said:

The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

LibDems are surging.

The snowflake generation don't like it when their own are critiqued. I think its fair enough that people discuss ability to hold seats on a political betting site, particularly given the volatility in Scotland

surbiton19

Brom said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Can someone tell Jacob Rees-Mogg that Europe have just bowled out England for 85 at Lord’s?

Three catches by the backstop too.

Murtagh is English in fairness

But he plays for the EU.

AndyJS

Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

williamglenn

AndyJS said:

Corbyn has seen off 3 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

Has BoJo resigned already?

Brom

surbiton19 said:

Brom said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Can someone tell Jacob Rees-Mogg that Europe have just bowled out England for 85 at Lord’s?

Three catches by the backstop too.

Murtagh is English in fairness

But he plays for the EU.

I hasten to add in cricket Ireland also represents Ulster, so that isn't entirely true either.

TheWhiteRabbit

AndyJS said:

Corbyn has seen off 3 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

Has BoJo resigned already????

HYUFD

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

It's not totally impossible that the Lib Dems do really well at the next GE but their leader loses her seat.

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Either of those things - Chuka winning Streatham or Swinson losing East Dunbartonshire - are possible.

But the combination of both is ridiculously unlikely. The Lib Dems would be have a good election to allow them to gain/hold Streatham, such that they just aren't going to lose a seat with a 10% majority.

No, the LDs were on just 10% in Scotland with Yougov with the SNP on 42% in the last Yougov even as the LDs are on 23% ahead of Labour on just 19% in the latest Yougov nationwide.

Plus the Tory vote only rose 6% in East Dunbartonshire at the last general election but 14% Scotland wide and many Tories will not tactically vote for her again as she is a diehard Remainer even if not SNP, they will stick with the Tories

Why are you so sure that those Tory to LD switchers in East Dunbartonshire were tactical, rather than genuine switchers?

The SLDs had a low poll in Scotland last time, but good focus got them 4 seats as I recall.

I think that on aboard infested by the yellow peril, you are the only one forecasting Chukka as next leader, and do not have either a vote or insight in the party.

I would remind you I was one of the few on here who predicted Boris as next Tory leader so I am happy with my Chuka as next LD leader prediction. I can see him in No 10 more than Swinson.


The Tory to LD switching in East Dunbartonshire has been entirely tactical against the SNP and was even then before Brexit in 2015, it could easily unwind

Scott_P

AndyJS said:

Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/1153628285215137792

TheScreamingEagles

AndyJS said:

Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

For LOTOs success is winning general elections.

Mysticrose

Brom said:

Mysticrose said:

The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

LibDems are surging.

The snowflake generation don't like it when their own are critiqued. I think its fair enough that people discuss ability to hold seats on a political betting site, particularly given the volatility in Scotland

Of course of course but I think it's interesting because people seem to be really waking up to the LibDem surge.

I think Jo Swinson is fabulous. Underestimate this lady at your peril.

Brom

Mysticrose said:

Brom said:

Mysticrose said:

The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

LibDems are surging.

The snowflake generation don't like it when their own are critiqued. I think its fair enough that people discuss ability to hold seats on a political betting site, particularly given the volatility in Scotland

Of course of course but I think it's interesting because people seem to be really waking up to the LibDem surge.

I think Jo Swinson is fabulous. Underestimate this lady at your peril.

If it propels the Tories into power and keeps Labour out I'm sure plenty on this forum will be thanking her. We're all watching closely to see how she copes when the spotlight falls on her, should be interesting either way.

Foxy

Brom said:

Mysticrose said:

The attacks on Jo Swinson and the latest speculations about her seat, which she holds with a 10% margin are a clear sign that the two main parties are rattled by both her and the LibDem surge.

Fabulous. She's more than capable of standing up for herself.

LibDems are surging.

The snowflake generation don't like it when their own are critiqued. I think its fair enough that people discuss ability to hold seats on a political betting site, particularly given the volatility in Scotland

On the one hand the SNP are looking a little shopsoiled, but on the other hand should again poll well in Scotland at a GE. I would expect them to take some SLAB and SCON seats, but SLD less likely. The SLD will be the pro Union vote at both UK and European level.

I am not sure that any LD has ever had a truly safe seat, but it was one reason that I went for Davey. Swinson should hold her seat, but doing so may limit her national campaigning.

kinabalu

Mysticrose said:

This is so good:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1154000762499928064?s=20

That was a good exchange.

Pulpstar

Brom said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

I think Swinson will hold. The Tories last time round in Scotland had a whole swathe of Lib Dem switchers evident in their victories but also the internal structure of the highland vote showed it up well.

You reckon there were many Lib Dem --> Tory switchers in East Dunbartonshire in 2017?

all it takes is the Tories to not campaign and Swinson is probably a gonner. Which is one reason they should have picked Davey who has zero chance of losing his seat.

The Tory vote increased by 13.7% Scotland wide but only 6% in Swinson's seat. Given the LDs decreased 0.8% but Jo received a 4% bump I'd say there were extra "broad unionists" that came out to vote, and would have voted Tory in another seat but tactically voted for Jo.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1154011673851781125

Ishmael_Z

Stereotomy said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

Clapping is out of order in the House of Commons. As usual Bercow doesn't enforce the traditions of the place.

It is generally accepted that the convention of not clapping is not universal eg for major occasions. I find those who regularly flout the convention because they think it makes a rebellious statement lame on the extreme but it has never been followed all the time.

I dont have my Erskine May in front of me but I dont know that you are right that it is explicitly out of order to clap. I think there is a general rule on not making noise and causing disturbance and that generally clapping would indeed be unacceptable on that basid but that it is up to the chairs judgement on whether to intervene.

So I'd lighten up. It is not as firm a rule as you think it is, and one might even suggest it is the tradition of the house to permit it on such occasions and your view to be so rigid flouts that tradition.

Are we doing Gormenghast roleplay? Why is this even a discussion?

If you want inappropriate clapping, see the response to Lord Spencer's toe-curling speech at Di's funeral. Nothing else comes close.

JackW

Sky News - Rory Stewart and David Gauke resign

logical_song

numbertwelve said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Which if Chuka wins Streatham as a LD and beats Labour would finally enable him to fulfil his destiny if Jo Swinson loses her seat back to the SNP

Chuka's destiny is to lead a minor party?

On today's Yougov the next centre left PM could be a LD not Labour

It would be lovely to see the LDs supplant the Labour Party as the primary party of the centre left in this country. However, we have been here before re the LDs and polls so a pinch of caution is advised...

Agreed, but the difference this time is the presence of the Brexit Party and with four and a half parties being in contention*.
Both Labour and Tory and Remainers and Leavers have alternatives to go to. This is why I think that anthing could happen in a GE. I suspect that just plugging the percentages into the usual forcasting sites will be less accurate than in the past.

* If LibDem/Green can combine to get 28% that really would be a game changer. As would Tory/Brexit - but I suspect that would be a more difficult pairing and could lose the Tories a large slice of support.

eek

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

For LOTOs success is winning general elections.

When Scotland has already been lost to the extent you can't win a majority?

logical_song

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1154011673851781125

... making the most of his time there.

Pulpstar

Will the PM reply to the Hammond and Stewart resignations ?

TheScreamingEagles

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

For LOTOs success is winning general elections.

When Scotland has already been lost to the extent you can't win a majority?

But he can win a general election and not win a majority.

He doesn't need to win a majority to become Prime Minister.

DecrepitJohnL

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1154011673851781125

A sensible precaution. Too often Remoaner snappers use trick photography to make Boris's hair look thin and unkempt, his tie askew and shirt untucked.

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1154011673851781125

Is it? Didn't Cameron also have a personal photographer?

Streeter

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1154006316471508993

The Embankment Cycle Superhighway is safe.

kinabalu

williamglenn said:

A classy contribution from Harriet Harman at the end of PMQs.

It was. Harman usually does show solidarity with other women in public life.

JackW

Pulpstar said:

Will the PM reply to the Hammond and Stewart resignations ?

Yes.

logical_song

Scott_P said:

AndyJS said:

Corbyn has seen off 2 Tory leaders now. If that isn't success, I don't know what is.

https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/1153628285215137792

... don't they want him to be someting other than Leader of the Opposition?

Mango

Mysticrose said:

Because power in this country is ALWAYS won by winning the centre ground. Sorry for the shouty bit but it's true. If you don't reach out to the centre, you won't win.

Isn't power in this country won by going to the right school and university, and sucking up to the oligarchical press?

Under FPTP the "centre" might be over-rated now. Not when there is minority bashing to be done.

MikeSmithson

AndyJS said:

According to this report Mrs May will head to Buckingham Palace at 2:30pm. Boris Johnson will arrive there at about 3:30pm.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/105517/explained-how-historic

Who runs the country in between?