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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s first net approval ratings are 33 points lower than

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s first net approval ratings are 33 points lower than TMay when she entered Number 10 in 2016

As well as the voting intention surveys this weekend we have had the first approval ratings from Opinium on Johnson in polling carried out since he entered Number 10. A total of 28% said they approved of the way he was handling his job compared with 31% saying the disapproved. This gives a net figure of minus three.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    First.
  • lazy sleazy Boris on the slide.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Second. Like Boris in most popular PM since Cameron.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Given the baggage he carries, it's also hard to see how he turns it round. It's not like Corbyn, whom most people knew vaguely was a Bad Thing but didn't know much about until he started scattering largesse around. Boris Johnson has been a prominent public figure for 30-odd years in a series of high-profile roles and most people have already seen what he's like.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    The leader figures gives a lot of confidence for the future of our country !!!!!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




  • Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    Yup always better to continue an argument into the next thread I find.

    Laters
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    ydoethur said:

    Given the baggage he carries, it's also hard to see how he turns it round. It's not like Corbyn, whom most people knew vaguely was a Bad Thing but didn't know much about until he started scattering largesse around. Boris Johnson has been a prominent public figure for 30-odd years in a series of high-profile roles and most people have already seen what he's like.

    Exactly. It's all downhill from here for Boris and the hill will be pretty steep. With a cliff edge at the end.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    I like your headers. Acerbic, but not nasty. Like a fine Manzanilla sherry.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    You are a wonderful contributor to this site and I read all your threads and posts with great interest and respect. I do not agree with all you write but that is not a reason to become rude, but rather a reason to try to make my own views in a fair and sensible manner

    Please have a glass of wine, relax and think of your gardening that gives you so much pleasure (as indeed our garden does for my dear wife) and continue to provide us with your interesting knowledge and views
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    Given the baggage he carries, it's also hard to see how he turns it round. It's not like Corbyn, whom most people knew vaguely was a Bad Thing but didn't know much about until he started scattering largesse around. Boris Johnson has been a prominent public figure for 30-odd years in a series of high-profile roles and most people have already seen what he's like.

    Exactly. It's all downhill from here for Boris and the hill will be pretty steep. With a cliff edge at the end.
    It should be, agreed.

    But with things so volatile at the moment and Labour in as bad a mess as the Tories, it may be that being less awful than the alternative will be good enough.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    You are a wonderful contributor to this site and I read all your threads and posts with great interest and respect. I do not agree with all you write but that is not a reason to become rude, but rather a reason to try to make my own views in a fair and sensible manner

    Please have a glass of wine, relax and think of your gardening that gives you so much pleasure (as indeed our garden does for my dear wife) and continue to provide us with your interesting knowledge and views
    Agreed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Yeah, but BoJo has the mojo, therefore anything that says he is not the Bozziah is someone talking the country down.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:
    Never. He came back from terrible ratings before, why would the faithful not think he will again?

    More to the point, how many non-corbynites will just return to the fold to prevent a Tory victory like last time? My best is most of those who say how much labour is not the party they joined will vote for it next time just the same.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    Yup always better to continue an argument into the next thread I find.

    Laters
    I'm happy to confirm that I find your attacks on Cyclefree misguided as well as tedious, and also that you should learn how and when to use commas.

    On topic: I think there are two important points to be made here. One is that Johnson's leadership rating are inevitably tarnished by the hangover of May's appalling ratings towards the end of her time in office, and the spillover onto the Tory brand. The second is that I think Johnson would probably do quite well out of an election campaign where he was front and centre, providing he played it more or less straight and cut out most of his usual histrionics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ydoethur said:

    Given the baggage he carries, it's also hard to see how he turns it round. It's not like Corbyn, whom most people knew vaguely was a Bad Thing but didn't know much about until he started scattering largesse around. Boris Johnson has been a prominent public figure for 30-odd years in a series of high-profile roles and most people have already seen what he's like.

    He turns it around either by delivering unexpectedly on his many many many promises, or if no deal turns out to be no big deal after all.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited July 2019
    Imagine just for a moment that -3 for Boris and ~30% for the Tories is the high-water mark under the leadership of Britain Trump. Just how badly could they do at the next general election?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Given the baggage he carries, it's also hard to see how he turns it round. It's not like Corbyn, whom most people knew vaguely was a Bad Thing but didn't know much about until he started scattering largesse around. Boris Johnson has been a prominent public figure for 30-odd years in a series of high-profile roles and most people have already seen what he's like.

    Exactly. It's all downhill from here for Boris and the hill will be pretty steep. With a cliff edge at the end.
    It should be, agreed.

    But with things so volatile at the moment and Labour in as bad a mess as the Tories, it may be that being less awful than the alternative will be good enough.
    TBH I think the state of Labour is not going to be a significant factor in determining Boris' fate. IMHO one of two things will happen at the end of October - the UK will not leave the EU or it will leave without a deal. The former being the most likely. But in either case Boris is stuffed, and the state of Labour is not going to make much difference.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Meanwhile. If you're having a bad day, remember that there's always someone worse off.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-49146896
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    glw said:

    Imagine just for a moment that -3 for Boris and ~30% is the high-water mark for the Tories under the leadership of Britain Trump. Just how badly could they do at the next general election?

    Not as badly as Corbyn
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    lazy sleazy Boris on the slide.

    I wish it were so, but he is actually on a mini bounce (back). His popularity ratings were -19% during the contest.

    Johnson fools some of the people all the time. Question is whether that's enough to keep him in power.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Endillion said:

    The second is that I think Johnson would probably do quite well out of an election campaign where he was front and centre, providing he played it more or less straight and cut out most of his usual histrionics.

    Basically it might work if Boris isn't Boris. Hmmm.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Given the baggage he carries, it's also hard to see how he turns it round. It's not like Corbyn, whom most people knew vaguely was a Bad Thing but didn't know much about until he started scattering largesse around. Boris Johnson has been a prominent public figure for 30-odd years in a series of high-profile roles and most people have already seen what he's like.

    Exactly. It's all downhill from here for Boris and the hill will be pretty steep. With a cliff edge at the end.
    It should be, agreed.

    But with things so volatile at the moment and Labour in as bad a mess as the Tories, it may be that being less awful than the alternative will be good enough.
    TBH I think the state of Labour is not going to be a significant factor in determining Boris' fate. IMHO one of two things will happen at the end of October - the UK will not leave the EU or it will leave without a deal. The former being the most likely. But in either case Boris is stuffed, and the state of Labour is not going to make much difference.
    Open goal for the Lib Dems but I remain of the opinion a huge fudged deal will happen

    It is obvious that neither of the main parties benefit by letting this continue without a resolution of some form
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Given the baggage he carries, it's also hard to see how he turns it round. It's not like Corbyn, whom most people knew vaguely was a Bad Thing but didn't know much about until he started scattering largesse around. Boris Johnson has been a prominent public figure for 30-odd years in a series of high-profile roles and most people have already seen what he's like.

    Exactly. It's all downhill from here for Boris and the hill will be pretty steep. With a cliff edge at the end.
    It should be, agreed.

    But with things so volatile at the moment and Labour in as bad a mess as the Tories, it may be that being less awful than the alternative will be good enough.
    TBH I think the state of Labour is not going to be a significant factor in determining Boris' fate. IMHO one of two things will happen at the end of October - the UK will not leave the EU or it will leave without a deal. The former being the most likely. But in either case Boris is stuffed, and the state of Labour is not going to make much difference.
    Wishful thinking. The only way the state of Labour makes no difference is if the realistic alternative is the Liberal Democrats.

    Remember 1992.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Fraser Nelson on why BJ’s team will not operate anything like TM’s did and why comparisons may be misplaced.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-new-boris-machine-owes-very-little-to-westminster/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    You are a wonderful contributor to this site and I read all your threads and posts with great interest and respect. I do not agree with all you write but that is not a reason to become rude, but rather a reason to try to make my own views in a fair and sensible manner

    Please have a glass of wine, relax and think of your gardening that gives you so much pleasure (as indeed our garden does for my dear wife) and continue to provide us with your interesting knowledge and views
    +1 Nicely said Big_G!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    "My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters."
    - Boris, 2004
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,095
    Swinson being picked top PM by as many as Farage and Corbyn is a very good result for her first weeks in the job.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    That kind of rhetoric has already cost me several grim hours as I supported a very old friend through the breakdown of a relationship. His girlfriend is Slovenian and had a nervous breakdown due to silly remarks like this.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    glw said:

    Endillion said:

    The second is that I think Johnson would probably do quite well out of an election campaign where he was front and centre, providing he played it more or less straight and cut out most of his usual histrionics.

    Basically it might work if Boris isn't Boris. Hmmm.
    Specifically, if he reverts back to the version that won the London mayoralty twice on the bounce. Which is totally plausible, if you buy into the idea that it's all just an act in the first place.

    Interestingly I seem to be in a minority on this, with the general view being that Johnson is such a known quantity by now that he can only become less popular. I'd argue the opposite: his detractors have maxed out by now (in other words, everyone who's going to hate him already does), but there are huge swathes of crucial voters all across the country who think they hate him, but haven't actually seen much of him yet. If he can keep the focus on good common sense policies that will actually benefit ordinary people (and he's made an excellent start by talking about bus services and infrastructure spending, rather than tax cuts for high earners) then he has plenty of room to surprise on the upside.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    That kind of rhetoric has already cost me several grim hours as I supported a very old friend through the breakdown of a relationship. His girlfriend is Slovenian and had a nervous breakdown due to silly remarks like this.
    It is all so unnecesary
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

  • Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    Yup always better to continue an argument into the next thread I find.

    Laters
    I'm happy to confirm that I find your attacks on Cyclefree misguided as well as tedious, and also that you should learn how and when to use commas.

    On topic: I think there are two important points to be made here. One is that Johnson's leadership rating are inevitably tarnished by the hangover of May's appalling ratings towards the end of her time in office, and the spillover onto the Tory brand. The second is that I think Johnson would probably do quite well out of an election campaign where he was front and centre, providing he played it more or less straight and cut out most of his usual histrionics.
    I don't "attack" Cyclefree. I criticise her poorly written thread headers and then she gets very passive-aggressive with me. Maybe she just gets fawned over all the time so it has come as a bit of a surprise to her.

    As Edmund Burke stated-

    "Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field."
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    That kind of rhetoric has already cost me several grim hours as I supported a very old friend through the breakdown of a relationship. His girlfriend is Slovenian and had a nervous breakdown due to silly remarks like this.
    It is all so unnecessary

    Not when you’re after the BXP vote.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Given the baggage he carries, it's also hard to see how he turns it round. It's not like Corbyn, whom most people knew vaguely was a Bad Thing but didn't know much about until he started scattering largesse around. Boris Johnson has been a prominent public figure for 30-odd years in a series of high-profile roles and most people have already seen what he's like.

    Exactly. It's all downhill from here for Boris and the hill will be pretty steep. With a cliff edge at the end.
    It should be, agreed.

    But with things so volatile at the moment and Labour in as bad a mess as the Tories, it may be that being less awful than the alternative will be good enough.
    TBH I think the state of Labour is not going to be a significant factor in determining Boris' fate. IMHO one of two things will happen at the end of October - the UK will not leave the EU or it will leave without a deal. The former being the most likely. But in either case Boris is stuffed, and the state of Labour is not going to make much difference.
    Wishful thinking. The only way the state of Labour makes no difference is if the realistic alternative is the Liberal Democrats.

    Remember 1992.
    But I don't think Boris will lose a GE -I don't think he will even get that far. He will be forced out in the same way as May. The dire state of Labour played no part in her downfall and it will be the same for Boris.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    It will be a disaster for many in the EU as well

    If it happens, the consequences not only for UK politicians but leaders in the EU could be very serious indeed.

    And Junckers plus Barnier legacy will be trashed
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited July 2019
    TGOHF said:

    Fraser Nelson on why BJ’s team will not operate anything like TM’s did and why comparisons may be misplaced.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-new-boris-machine-owes-very-little-to-westminster/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    He thinks Dominic Cummings has a 55% chance of getting a deal with the EU. Which is...
    A) Remarkably precise for an estimate, and
    b) Provides absolutely no evidence or justification for such a bold claim, other than he has successfully campaigned in a number of referendums. Which is hardly a comparable situation.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Boris has started his tenure as PM with a more hostile exposure in the media and by commentators than any previous PM I can remember.

    That negative exposure (if the media /commentators have any resonance with the public) is likely to have the effect of depressing his ratings early on. At the moment people will be responding according to the low expectations they have been fed. This will offer him the chance to improve ratings if he avoids failure, controversy and stupidity.

    It is always easier to exceed low expectations than meet high expectations.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    It will be a disaster for many in the EU as well

    If it happens, the consequences not only for UK politicians but leaders in the EU could be very serious indeed.

    And Junckers plus Barnier legacy will be trashed

    There is one No Deal constant: it hurts us a lot more than it hurts them.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    That kind of rhetoric has already cost me several grim hours as I supported a very old friend through the breakdown of a relationship. His girlfriend is Slovenian and had a nervous breakdown due to silly remarks like this.
    It is all so unnecessary

    Not when you’re after the BXP vote.
    It is still unnecessary
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.
    It's possible that No Deal won't amount to much, I don't think it's likely but I can entertian the possibility of it not being disruptive. But we live in a country where a bit of snow, or some very hot days, or a drone around an airport, can all cause a lot of disruption and public anguish. It makes no sense to choose a cliff edge rather than a gradual transition for the change of our relationship with the EU, if we can potentially negotiate a deal. I wish we'd already left the EU by now, but if it takes another 6 months more, or even a year or two, to get a deal then we should choose to do that and exit the EU smoothly.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    It will be a disaster for many in the EU as well

    If it happens, the consequences not only for UK politicians but leaders in the EU could be very serious indeed.

    And Junckers plus Barnier legacy will be trashed

    There is one No Deal constant: it hurts us a lot more than it hurts them.

    Maybe, but if it happens it is a collective failure of politicians and leaders here and throughout the EU
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2019

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    It will be a disaster for many in the EU as well

    If it happens, the consequences not only for UK politicians but leaders in the EU could be very serious indeed.

    And Junckers plus Barnier legacy will be trashed

    There is one No Deal constant: it hurts us a lot more than it hurts them.

    Depends which entity reacts better. 3 years of May and Hammond may have fooled us into thinking govt can’t be proactive but Boris ‘s team could take a radical approach.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    "My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters."
    - Boris, 2004

    People love this kind of Boris-speak. But, on reflection, it is just meaningless twaddle.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:
    Boris is more Berlusconi than May, May was more Gordon Brown
    I have my reservations on Boris but he is no Berlusconi

    Indeed he is on the liberal social left
    Who, Boris or Berlusconi? Boris was on the liberal social left when he wanted to win in London. Not now. Priti Patel as HS? He may go there again, if it suits him, as with everything else. If you mean Berlusconi, apologies.
    Boris still is on tne social left as you will see as he unveils more of his domestic agenda

    I oppose Boris on no deal but not the policies he is putting forward
    A couple of weeks ago you could not bring yourself to vote for Boris, now you are applauding warmly on all but one policy.

    Incredible!
    Why? Is he not allowed to change his mind?

    One way of showing you have a mind is being prepared to change it.....
    Indeed, but it is quite the volte face.
    Not really, Boris is putting forward the kind of policies Big_G himself supports so why shouldn't he be applauding those policies?

    It would be rather hypocritical or closed-minded to oppose a politician putting forward what you've previously suggested, because of who it is.
    So why not express that support with a vote?
    A vote on what?

    We're not due another vote on anything until after 31 October now at which point Schrodinger's Brexit should have been resolved.
    Perhaps you missed the recent voting by Tory members?

    *sigh!*
    I did indeed miss it, because I wasn't a member. I'm tempted to rejoin now though, I feel as a socially liberal Tory that I've got my party back now May's gone.

    I suspect and hope it will be many years before there's another leadership election though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,861
    Chuck Norris!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    philiph said:

    Boris has started his tenure as PM with a more hostile exposure in the media and by commentators than any previous PM I can remember.

    You mean they have reported things he has said and done in the past?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    glw said:

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.
    It's possible that No Deal won't amount to much, I don't think it's likely but I can entertian the possibility of it not being disruptive. But we live in a country where a bit of snow, or some very hot days, or a drone around an airport, can all cause a lot of disruption and public anguish. It makes no sense to choose a cliff edge rather than a gradual transition for the change of our relationship with the EU, if we can potentially negotiate a deal. I wish we'd already left the EU by now, but if it takes another 6 months more, or even a year or two, to get a deal then we should choose to do that and exit the EU smoothly.

    Yep, I agree. Of course, the less disruptive No Deal is in the UK the less disruptive it will be in the EU27. That still leaves us worse off than them because we’ll have no prospect of trade deals with our two biggest export markets and reduced access to dozens more. We lose most whichever way you look at it.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Personally, I find it rather disturbing that given the choice of Johnson, Corbyn or Farage only 12% of my fellow countryman opt for Swinson as best PM. It's really not that difficult ...
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Southam, you do not understand. They need our [ devalued ] pound. They will be only too happy to let us in.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Given the baggage he carries, it's also hard to see how he turns it round. It's not like Corbyn, whom most people knew vaguely was a Bad Thing but didn't know much about until he started scattering largesse around. Boris Johnson has been a prominent public figure for 30-odd years in a series of high-profile roles and most people have already seen what he's like.

    Exactly. It's all downhill from here for Boris and the hill will be pretty steep. With a cliff edge at the end.
    It should be, agreed.

    But with things so volatile at the moment and Labour in as bad a mess as the Tories, it may be that being less awful than the alternative will be good enough.
    TBH I think the state of Labour is not going to be a significant factor in determining Boris' fate. IMHO one of two things will happen at the end of October - the UK will not leave the EU or it will leave without a deal. The former being the most likely. But in either case Boris is stuffed, and the state of Labour is not going to make much difference.
    The narrow pathway is
    Endillion said:

    glw said:

    Endillion said:

    The second is that I think Johnson would probably do quite well out of an election campaign where he was front and centre, providing he played it more or less straight and cut out most of his usual histrionics.

    Basically it might work if Boris isn't Boris. Hmmm.
    Specifically, if he reverts back to the version that won the London mayoralty twice on the bounce. Which is totally plausible, if you buy into the idea that it's all just an act in the first place.

    Interestingly I seem to be in a minority on this, with the general view being that Johnson is such a known quantity by now that he can only become less popular. I'd argue the opposite: his detractors have maxed out by now (in other words, everyone who's going to hate him already does), but there are huge swathes of crucial voters all across the country who think they hate him, but haven't actually seen much of him yet. If he can keep the focus on good common sense policies that will actually benefit ordinary people (and he's made an excellent start by talking about bus services and infrastructure spending, rather than tax cuts for high earners) then he has plenty of room to surprise on the upside.
    I think that's entirely possible as long as he doesn't have to get Brexit through. Johnson might get away with saying, Brexit is boring, let's talk about something else. Alternatively be might get away with dressing up the mediocrity of a May type deal as something exciting and buccaneering. But if he's playing hardball he's not playing to his strengths.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289
    philiph said:

    Boris has started his tenure as PM with a more hostile exposure in the media and by commentators than any previous PM I can remember.

    That negative exposure (if the media /commentators have any resonance with the public) is likely to have the effect of depressing his ratings early on. At the moment people will be responding according to the low expectations they have been fed. This will offer him the chance to improve ratings if he avoids failure, controversy and stupidity.

    It is always easier to exceed low expectations than meet high expectations.

    What negative exposure, in which media, are you referring to Philip?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    Most people really don't think in those terms. Maybe they should but they don't and let's face it the past 6 years of scaremongering and forecasts of doom have really not been borne out in most folk's reality. I find my family are pretty fatalistic and meh about the whole business now. They want closure.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Personally, I find it rather disturbing that given the choice of Johnson, Corbyn or Farage only 12% of my fellow countryman opt for Swinson as best PM. It's really not that difficult ...

    Most of the public will say 'who'

    She needs lots of time in the news cycle
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.
    She probably doesn't know what she means herself.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Scott_P said:

    philiph said:

    Boris has started his tenure as PM with a more hostile exposure in the media and by commentators than any previous PM I can remember.

    You mean they have reported things he has said and done in the past?
    To be fair the Telegraph has been giving him a hard time.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    edited July 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    You are a wonderful contributor to this site and I read all your threads and posts with great interest and respect. I do not agree with all you write but that is not a reason to become rude, but rather a reason to try to make my own views in a fair and sensible manner

    Please have a glass of wine, relax and think of your gardening that gives you so much pleasure (as indeed our garden does for my dear wife) and continue to provide us with your interesting knowledge and views
    Thank you and to @FF43 and others for your kind comments.

    I will forego the glass of wine as I am trying to lose weight. And I have a busy and difficult work day tomorrow so want to have a clear head. My son is cooking a lovely chicken soup he has made his own: chicken with leeks and prunes and I will have that later after watering the garden. Lots of lovely pink nerines planted today. I hope they will flower.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    Yup always better to continue an argument into the next thread I find.

    Laters
    I'm happy to confirm that I find your attacks on Cyclefree misguided as well as tedious, and also that you should learn how and when to use commas.

    On topic: I think there are two important points to be made here. One is that Johnson's leadership rating are inevitably tarnished by the hangover of May's appalling ratings towards the end of her time in office, and the spillover onto the Tory brand. The second is that I think Johnson would probably do quite well out of an election campaign where he was front and centre, providing he played it more or less straight and cut out most of his usual histrionics.
    I don't "attack" Cyclefree. I criticise her poorly written thread headers and then she gets very passive-aggressive with me. Maybe she just gets fawned over all the time so it has come as a bit of a surprise to her.

    As Edmund Burke stated-

    "Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field."
    Your criticisms aren't particularly constructive. Perhaps you could work on that.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Wonder if the cretins still believe it's going to hurt them more than us?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    TGOHF said:

    Fraser Nelson on why BJ’s team will not operate anything like TM’s did and why comparisons may be misplaced.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/07/the-new-boris-machine-owes-very-little-to-westminster/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    He thinks Dominic Cummings has a 55% chance of getting a deal with the EU. Which is...
    A) Remarkably precise for an estimate, and
    b) Provides absolutely no evidence or justification for such a bold claim, other than he has successfully campaigned in a number of referendums. Which is hardly a comparable situation.
    55% is not a remarkably precise estimate, its a go-to for saying roughly 50-50 but one option is slightly more likely.

    Incidentally from memory as a Poker player 55% is roughly the same odds pre-flop of Pocket 6's holding up against someone with an Ace and a King. I like to bet high and get a heads-up bet whenever I have low pockets and I can tell you I've zero confidence once there's a caller it can definitely go either way.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    felix said:

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    Most people really don't think in those terms. Maybe they should but they don't and let's face it the past 6 years of scaremongering and forecasts of doom have really not been borne out in most folk's reality. I find my family are pretty fatalistic and meh about the whole business now. They want closure.

    They’re not going to get it for a long, long time!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    The key thing for Boris is he comfortably leads Corbyn, Swinson and Farage as best PM. Unless that changes it does not really matter if his personal approval rating is negative
  • Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    Yup always better to continue an argument into the next thread I find.

    Laters
    I'm happy to confirm that I find your attacks on Cyclefree misguided as well as tedious, and also that you should learn how and when to use commas.

    On topic: I think there are two important points to be made here. One is that Johnson's leadership rating are inevitably tarnished by the hangover of May's appalling ratings towards the end of her time in office, and the spillover onto the Tory brand. The second is that I think Johnson would probably do quite well out of an election campaign where he was front and centre, providing he played it more or less straight and cut out most of his usual histrionics.
    I don't "attack" Cyclefree. I criticise her poorly written thread headers and then she gets very passive-aggressive with me. Maybe she just gets fawned over all the time so it has come as a bit of a surprise to her.

    As Edmund Burke stated-

    "Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field."
    Your criticisms aren't particularly constructive. Perhaps you could work on that.
    If she attacks me again - you can guarantee it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.

    She says automatic right of entry.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Wonder if the cretins still believe it's going to hurt them more than us?

    Depends how you define hurt.

    IMNSHO if the EU continues to insist upon the backstop it will under our new leadership hurt the EU more than it hurts us, which wasn't the case under May. Which is why they should drop it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    You are a wonderful contributor to this site and I read all your threads and posts with great interest and respect. I do not agree with all you write but that is not a reason to become rude, but rather a reason to try to make my own views in a fair and sensible manner

    Please have a glass of wine, relax and think of your gardening that gives you so much pleasure (as indeed our garden does for my dear wife) and continue to provide us with your interesting knowledge and views
    Thank you and to @FF43 for your kind comments.

    I will forego the glass of wine as I am trying to lose weight. And I have a busy and difficult work day tomorrow so want to have a clear head. My son is cooking a lovely chicken soup he has made his own: chicken with leeks and prunes and I will have that later after watering the garden. Lots of lovely pink nerines planted today. I hope they will flower.
    I wish you well on the weight front.

    I have lost over 15 kgs since april but discovered that a glass of red wine is actually good for you, in moderation of course

    The chicken soup sounds very appealing
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    felix said:

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    Most people really don't think in those terms. Maybe they should but they don't and let's face it the past 6 years of scaremongering and forecasts of doom have really not been borne out in most folk's reality. I find my family are pretty fatalistic and meh about the whole business now. They want closure.
    It's never the fall which kills you, it's always the landing. The past 6 years were the fall, closure is the landing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.

    She says automatic right of entry.

    Yes but which does she mean by that?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.

    She says automatic right of entry.

    Yes but which does she mean by that?

    They need approval to enter.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Scott_P said:

    philiph said:

    Boris has started his tenure as PM with a more hostile exposure in the media and by commentators than any previous PM I can remember.

    You mean they have reported things he has said and done in the past?
    To be fair the Telegraph has been giving him a hard time.
    Really? It's looked like the Borisgraph to me for the last couple of months.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Personally, I find it rather disturbing that given the choice of Johnson, Corbyn or Farage only 12% of my fellow countryman opt for Swinson as best PM. It's really not that difficult ...

    Most of the public will say 'who'

    She needs lots of time in the news cycle
    That would change rapidly during a GE campaign.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.

    She says automatic right of entry.

    Yes but which does she mean by that?

    They need approval to enter.

    What kind of approval?

    Americans need approval to enter to move here, but they can get a visa waiver if they're coming for a holiday etc - that is a sane solution for Europeans too, anything else is insane.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.
    You should know. You are their biggest cheerleader. I do not know exactly how we treat the people from the nations you mention. To go to Australia, we have to buy an online visa but to the USA, I believe no visa is required if the stay is less than 3 months. Unless that has changed.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    philiph said:

    Boris has started his tenure as PM with a more hostile exposure in the media and by commentators than any previous PM I can remember.

    That negative exposure (if the media /commentators have any resonance with the public) is likely to have the effect of depressing his ratings early on. At the moment people will be responding according to the low expectations they have been fed. This will offer him the chance to improve ratings if he avoids failure, controversy and stupidity.

    It is always easier to exceed low expectations than meet high expectations.

    What negative exposure, in which media, are you referring to Philip?
    I have to say the coverage of Boris has been generally euphoric especially from, not surprisingly, the pro-Conservative press. He comes into the job with more "back story" than most recent Prime Ministers and especially the likes of May and to an extent Major who weren't well known by the general public and coming into the job via an internal election is rather different from winning a general election.

    Nonetheless, there has been a clear media spin to project what has happened as a real change of Government and to be fair a lot of those who prospered in the Cameron and May periods are gone and a lot of the new Cabinet aren't again well known.

    Interesting to see the old familiar "I voted Remain but the vote must be honoured and we must leave" argument coming out for an airing. If a turkey knew what voting for Christmas meant it would probably want to annul its vote. I voted LEAVE but I didn't vote to inflict catastrophic economic damage on myself or the country by crashing out without a WA so perhaps the turkey has a point.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    Yup always better to continue an argument into the next thread I find.

    Laters
    I'm happy to confirm that I find your attacks on Cyclefree misguided as well as tedious, and also that you should learn how and when to use commas.

    On topic: I think there are two important points to be made here. One is that Johnson's leadership rating are inevitably tarnished by the hangover of May's appalling ratings towards the end of her time in office, and the spillover onto the Tory brand. The second is that I think Johnson would probably do quite well out of an election campaign where he was front and centre, providing he played it more or less straight and cut out most of his usual histrionics.
    I don't "attack" Cyclefree. I criticise her poorly written thread headers and then she gets very passive-aggressive with me. Maybe she just gets fawned over all the time so it has come as a bit of a surprise to her.

    As Edmund Burke stated-

    "Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field."
    I have done nothing of the kind. I pointed out that your criticisms of certain phrases were criticisms of phrases used by Boris i.e. quotes. If you don't like their style go after him.

    I'm fine with you not liking or disagreeing with my headers. Why don't you write one yourself and see if it is accepted.

    I have rarely in my life been fawned over.

    Still, someone who likes Edmund Burke, one of my great political heroes, is not all bad. It's a very good quote.

    Have a lovely evening.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.
    You should know. You are their biggest cheerleader. I do not know exactly how we treat the people from the nations you mention. To go to Australia, we have to buy an online visa but to the USA, I believe no visa is required if the stay is less than 3 months. Unless that has changed.

    You need an ESTA for the US.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Personally, I find it rather disturbing that given the choice of Johnson, Corbyn or Farage only 12% of my fellow countryman opt for Swinson as best PM. It's really not that difficult ...

    Most of the public will say 'who'

    She needs lots of time in the news cycle
    That would change rapidly during a GE campaign.
    She needs it before then and to be honest she probably will
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    It will be a disaster for many in the EU as well

    If it happens, the consequences not only for UK politicians but leaders in the EU could be very serious indeed.

    And Junckers plus Barnier legacy will be trashed
    Barnier was the man who finally made a small admission about the extent of BSE in France (which amounted to more cases than the rest of the world added together). So his legacy as an honest if unimaginative man is secure.

    Juncker' legacy is that of a man who was forced to resign after it was found the security services were rigging elections in his favour and whose tax deals would disgrace the Virgin Islands. He also reduced the credibility of the Commission to zero and left us a series of videos of drunkenness in public that even Yeltsin would blush at.

    It's hard to see how he tops that legacy, so I'm not bothered about that.

    What No Deal does represent is a failure of salesmanship, but that's May's fault, not theirs.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.

    She says automatic right of entry.

    Yes but which does she mean by that?

    They need approval to enter.

    What kind of approval?

    Americans need approval to enter to move here, but they can get a visa waiver if they're coming for a holiday etc - that is a sane solution for Europeans too, anything else is insane.

    I agree. My guess is that she doesn’t know what she is talking about.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Wonder if the cretins still believe it's going to hurt them more than us?

    Depends how you define hurt.

    IMNSHO if the EU continues to insist upon the backstop it will under our new leadership hurt the EU more than it hurts us, which wasn't the case under May. Which is why they should drop it.

    How will it hurt them more?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    Wonder if the cretins still believe it's going to hurt them more than us?

    Depends how you define hurt.

    IMNSHO if the EU continues to insist upon the backstop it will under our new leadership hurt the EU more than it hurts us, which wasn't the case under May. Which is why they should drop it.
    Our circa 280 bn exports subject to wto terms hurts a lot. The 340bn imports hurt is split 26 ways German hurt eg is 20% of our hurt France 15% etc etc. Gove must be a thick fucker
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Scott_P said:
    I think they forgot about him. He had to telephone No.10 instead.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Interesting that Priti Patel talks about ending EU citizens’ automatic right of entry to the UK in her MoS article today. Two thoughts on that:
    1. Visas for visits to the UK for them means visas for us to visit EU countries.
    2. You can’t end automatic entry without a hard border in Northern Ireland.

    Does she mean visas for tourism, or an end to free movement to move here?

    Visas for tourism would be an absurd situation to be in. Treating EU citizens the same as we treat Australian, Kiwi, Canadian and American citizens would be perfectly reasonable.
    You should know. You are their biggest cheerleader. I do not know exactly how we treat the people from the nations you mention. To go to Australia, we have to buy an online visa but to the USA, I believe no visa is required if the stay is less than 3 months. Unless that has changed.
    ESTA for US and an ETA for Canada
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    Having written a couple of headers myself, I appreciate your efforts even when I disagree.

    In terms of style they read well to me. The hardest bit I find is keeping it down to a reasonable length.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    It will be a disaster for many in the EU as well

    If it happens, the consequences not only for UK politicians but leaders in the EU could be very serious indeed.

    And Junckers plus Barnier legacy will be trashed
    So if I understand the Con/Leave (yes, I know you voted Remain) party line, it goes like this:

    1) No Deal holds no fear to the United Kingdom. It is sufficiently large and advanced to cope with No Deal, even with less than one hundred days to prepare
    2) No Deal holds enormous fear to the EU, despite the fact that it is seven times larger than us and did most of its No Deal preparation earlier this year.

    I hope I do not need to use sarcasm or other rude technique to point out the problems with that logic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited July 2019

    Gove is a thick fucker

    FTFY :smile:
  • Cyclefree said:

    Endillion said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm not quite sure why @JBriskinindyref2 has it in for me. But I suggest that he drops it. He doesn't like my headers. I don't suppose he's alone. It doesn't bother me but the nit-picking over every other word etc, must be tedious for others on here.

    Oh - and BTW - it's "vassal" with an "a" not an "e".

    I can do nit-picking too. And I hate bad spelling. But hey it might be the typing.

    Anyway, time to have a nice evening.




    Yup always better to continue an argument into the next thread I find.

    Laters
    I'm happy to confirm that I find your attacks on Cyclefree misguided as well as tedious, and also that you should learn how and when to use commas.

    On topic: I think there are two important points to be made here. One is that Johnson's leadership rating are inevitably tarnished by the hangover of May's appalling ratings towards the end of her time in office, and the spillover onto the Tory brand. The second is that I think Johnson would probably do quite well out of an election campaign where he was front and centre, providing he played it more or less straight and cut out most of his usual histrionics.
    I don't "attack" Cyclefree. I criticise her poorly written thread headers and then she gets very passive-aggressive with me. Maybe she just gets fawned over all the time so it has come as a bit of a surprise to her.

    As Edmund Burke stated-

    "Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field."
    I have done nothing of the kind. I pointed out that your criticisms of certain phrases were criticisms of phrases used by Boris i.e. quotes. If you don't like their style go after him.

    I'm fine with you not liking or disagreeing with my headers. Why don't you write one yourself and see if it is accepted.

    I have rarely in my life been fawned over.

    Still, someone who likes Edmund Burke, one of my great political heroes, is not all bad. It's a very good quote.

    Have a lovely evening.
    "pottering in the garden" again I see.

    Burke is an arch tory - it's no surprise you like him.

    I did write a thread header - I posted it on the last thread. I wish you could keep your drivel to the comments part - but they're probably too long.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    ydoethur said:

    Gove is a thick fucker

    FTFY :smile:
    GITFWNBPM
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Scott_P said:
    I think they forgot about him. He had to telephone No.10 instead.
    More likely he has been anguishing over whether to sign 'the pledge'.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Wonder if the cretins still believe it's going to hurt them more than us?

    Depends how you define hurt.

    IMNSHO if the EU continues to insist upon the backstop it will under our new leadership hurt the EU more than it hurts us, which wasn't the case under May. Which is why they should drop it.
    Our circa 280 bn exports subject to wto terms hurts a lot. The 340bn imports hurt is split 26 ways German hurt eg is 20% of our hurt France 15% etc etc. Gove must be a thick fucker

    Of course, if the UK lowers most tariffs the EU hurt will be significantly reduced - and there will be no need for anyone to do a trade deal with us.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    Gove is a thick fucker

    FTFY :smile:
    GITFWNBPM
    I do hope not. Boris is bad, Gove would be - unimaginable.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,289

    Personally, I find it rather disturbing that given the choice of Johnson, Corbyn or Farage only 12% of my fellow countryman opt for Swinson as best PM. It's really not that difficult ...

    Most of the public will say 'who'

    She needs lots of time in the news cycle
    That would change rapidly during a GE campaign.
    She needs it before then and to be honest she probably will
    I am sure her profile will increase over the coming weeks anyway but the GE will only occur at the end of a GE campaign, and during the campaign she will inevitably get a lot of airtime.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    viewcode said:

    felix said:

    All the carping against Bojo on here, twitter and elsewhere is totally tedious. Talking with my family this week - they're staying with us on holiday - what struck me was the only thing they really want now is to get Brexit done. Like me we all voted remain - but they just want it done and like me they believe the vote must be honoured. I think this factor is the biggest reason for the 'bounce'. If he 'gets it done' he'll sweep all before him and if not he'll be an amusing footnote in History. But the sense of palpable panic on the left and also from 'Remain' from a few lousy polls suggests to me that they are shit scared.

    Yep, No Deal does scare me, I have to say. I think it will be hugely damaging. You might get through it OK in Spain, but I’m not sure it will be so easy for millions of people living in the UK.

    It will be a disaster for many in the EU as well

    If it happens, the consequences not only for UK politicians but leaders in the EU could be very serious indeed.

    And Junckers plus Barnier legacy will be trashed
    So if I understand the Con/Leave (yes, I know you voted Remain) party line, it goes like this:

    1) No Deal holds no fear to the United Kingdom. It is sufficiently large and advanced to cope with No Deal, even with less than one hundred days to prepare
    2) No Deal holds enormous fear to the EU, despite the fact that it is seven times larger than us and did most of its No Deal preparation earlier this year.

    I hope I do not need to use sarcasm or other rude technique to point out the problems with that logic.
    I do not subscribe to either 1 or 2.

    No deal is idiotic and will damage us, but also the EU and will cause massive disruption and ill will

    Each side is playing a dangerous game and I just hope somewhere a deal comes forward to mitigate some of the damage
This discussion has been closed.