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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warnings by industry on dangers of an EU exit might be havi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warnings by industry on dangers of an EU exit might be having an impact
For the first time since January YouGov’s “how would you vote in an EU referendum” polling has not had LEAVE in the lead.
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Net Stay (diff)
Con: -15 (+15)
Lab: +29 (+5)
LibD: +50 (-1)
UKIP: -80 (+13)
Not sure why they would be disproportionately swayed by the boss of a car factory on Teeside.....
Teesside would love a Nissan scaled employer though
Hundreds of thousands of Ukip voters wake up in May 2015 and find out they are in clover.
Another 5 years of ranting and raging against the machine with no prospect of anyone spoiling their ranting fun.
Banking on a more right wing leader "maybe" winning the leadership and "maybe" winning in 2020 is a bit of a long shot.
Kippers seem to be happiest when moaning at the EU - just like some Nats and England - give them a referendum and you spoil their favourite pastime - whinging.
"Imagine the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain's interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms"
pushes the vote to 51 - 25, a significant majority to stay.
Which shows that many people would prefer to stay, as long as they didn't feel Britain was getting a bad deal.
Or how much faith people have in Cameron's negotiating skills!
"I will not fight for Queen & Country"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53w3XoAdhJA#t=63
On the side of staying in would be the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Northern Irish parties, quite a bit of the Tory Party including John Major, David Cameron and George Osborne, the CBI, the TUC, Universities (foreign students) most local authorities (except a few Tory controlled ones), high-profile foreign investors like Nissan, Honda etc etc, the US government, the other EU governments, the City and a good portion of the media.
On the side of coming out would be UKIP, the majority of backbench Tories, another good portion of the media and a few maverick MPs like Kate Hoey and Austin Mitchell.
The chances of a vote to leave under these circumstances are virtually zero, and it seems to me that as this sinks in the demands for a referendum are going to become rather less insistent.
No, we don't actually.
With you it's just the same old bollocks rattled off time after time.
Very nice tim, but as ever we have a flawed analysis. Taking a snapshot of immigration to mean the lifetime costs is just pure nonsense. It's taking the receipts at a gig and announcing we've made a profit before all the costs come in. Do you think 4 million people won't want pensions ?
BBC Headline: Nissan boss warns UK over possible EU exit
What Ghosn said: "If anything has to change, we [would] need to reconsider our strategy and our investments for the future."
Of course they would - only an idiot would say 'if market conditions change we won't reconsider our strategy & investments.' But the BBC has to dress this up as a 'bombshell'....
And of course, Ghosn has previous:
"This is not the first time that Mr Ghosn has linked Nissan's UK investment to the country's role within the EU.
In October 2002, he told the BBC News website that the Sunderland plant's future would depend on whether the UK adopted the euro.
However, the UK has continued to use the pound and Nissan is still making cars in Sunderland."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100244630/immigration-errors-guesswork-and-oversight-in-the-report-everyone-is-quoting/
"First, an elementary error. When calculating the fiscal contribution made by migrants, the report’s authors try to work out how much tax migrants pay. In doing so, the report’s authors seem to count the £10 Billion business rates paid to the Treasury each year as if business rates were a tax paid by every self employed person in the country. It isn’t. Most of that £10 billion tax contribution comes from big companies."
As far as pensioners are concerned, the rich ones can go abroad, but the poor become immigrants in their own towns
http://www.cream-migration.org/personnelresstaff.php
It is the only coherent, sensible strategy and one that the other parties will fall into line with sooner or later (have they already?).
There will of course be ample debate about what exactly defines a "concession"...
A tiny proportion of brits have the slightest idea of what "Europe" does well or badly for the UK and a smaller proportion are affected. Of these latter some will have good and others bad experience.
It will come down to pre-existing (geo-)political views and how much Cam's negotiations can be spun one way or another.
UKIP simply say we should be able to choose.
No need for the lies thankyou please
Meanwhile French budget mets with the great man's approval.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/11/uk-eu-barroso-idUKBRE9AA0YZ20131111
I don't doubt Cam is also a committed europhile (or at least fears the Wildean consequences of losing both Scotland and Europe) but has realised not only for his backbenchers, but it is also per se the right thing to do to offer a referendum.
I don't think that anyone is expecting Cameron to put anything meaningful, in terms of recouped powers, before the electorate.
Here's how one of our top Judges suddenly see's the light; alas, too late!
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/top-judge-surprised-that-controversial-eu-laws-that-we-blocked-are-now-legally-binding-8934773.html
Try looking at the results of the Boston local elections and judge how the people affected feel about it... or would you rather go by the PB verdict on an episode of Question Time?
Twitter
Matt Hancock @matthancockmp 10m
I'm amazed Labour have chosen to spend their allotted day in Parliament arguing for more unfunded spending on housing benefit #SameOldLabour
Douglas Carswell MP @DouglasCarswell 10m
Amazing that the Left is poised to position itself against welfare reform. 2015 dividing lines. Wrong side of public opinion. Bizarre
".....Mr Blunkett said locals were entitled to ‘grumble’ about the large influx of migrants from Roma communities, but they should not ‘stir up hate’. ‘I wouldn’t want other people to put up with things I wouldn’t put up with myself,’ he said. ‘This is nothing to do with criticising people about being racist. By all means grumble, but don’t stir up hate...."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2502072/Influx-Roma-migrants-spark-city-riots-warns-Blunkett.html
The education secretary praised Hackney for demanding rigorous standards of its social workers, raising fears a shake-up of social care will lead to job losses across the country.”
Blimey, Hackney ! – if this is going on there of all places, then times are certainly changing.
And for the better I might add.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/michael-gove-praises-hackney-jobs-losses-and-pledges-to-shakeup-social-care-8934169.html
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/90ljpo4m1b/YG-Archive-London-11113.pdf
Corruption worse than drugs, and some curious gender differences on resigning (net)
Used cocaine:
M: +28
F: +47
Sent explicit images of themselves which became public:
M: +26
F: +52
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 40m
Unite Cancels Christmas http://guyfawk.es/HL2M74 pic.twitter.com/hG4yykLB2H
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Jack#Other_nations_and_regions
http://www.enchantedlearning.com/geography/flags/uklike.shtml
How are those Indian settlements nowadays?
Is the Boston marathon the same date every year?
'It is well known here that you would refuse to ever believe anything anti immigration from those who have actually experienced it first hand'
Tim lives in a 97% white area so zero experience, he just trolls the latest Labour lines he has been given.
'Feel free to critique the data on the economic contribution of EU immigrants.'
Feel free to critique the data on how wages were driven down by Labour's policy of mass immigration.
Or are you too thick to ever contribute anything other than desperately trying to justify one Labour's most unpopular policy's?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/grantshapps/12-facts-why-your-energy-bills-are-sky-high-and-giew
I rather like the union flag.
Odds on him getting a podium have dropped to something like 13/1, but that's still too short. He'd need to get accustomed to the car, and Red Bull seem nailed on for 2/3 places on the podium. I think Hulkenberg's a great talent but cannot see him getting a podium even with a Lotus seat.
"Feckless fathers should be put in chains and made to work to pay for the upbringing of their children, a Tory MP declared today.
Monmouth MP David TC Davies said it was ‘absolutely outrageous’ that young men get women pregnant and then ‘disappear’, leaving them to a life on benefits.
And he complained that benefits remain far too generous in many circumstances by allowing a 17-year-old couple to set up in a ‘teenage love nest’ at the state’s expense.
Mr Davies’ outspoken suggestion came during a debate in the Commons on benefits changes.
Labour heavily criticised moves to reduce benefits for people with rooms they do not need, describing it as a ‘bedroom tax’.
The Tories insist the end of the spare room subsidy is fair and necessary to curb the nation’s welfare budget."
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Asterix-Picts-Ferri-Jean-Yves-ebook/dp/B00FRKFXQO/
The Kindle edition (ie an ebook) costs more than the hardcover. The paperback costs more than the ebook version. That's just weird.
I have never and probably will never vote Tory, but can any reasonably minded person really think a politician would design a policy with the deliberate aim of harming the lives of the disabled?