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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now betting opens on a by-election that has not yet been calle
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now betting opens on a by-election that has not yet been called and indeed might never happen
Ladbrokes make Lib Dems strong favourites to re-take Sheffield Hallam, if we get a by-election this year. pic.twitter.com/izdiC6e46Q
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UK universities have slammed the Home Office's outsourced visa system for foreign students as not fit for purpose [sorry, JRM] because it leaves scholars waiting weeks for appointments.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/07/29/overseas_student_visas_suffering_it_fail/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/powerandpolitics/there-s-no-point-in-canada-striking-a-deal-with-the-u-k-at-this-point-rona-ambrose-1.5227345
Perhapds the most interesting poll finding last weekend was that showing Labour achieving an overall majority were Corbyn NOT to be leader of the party at the next GE. This must have been a truly chilling result for him and indeed his closest advisors. For Labour to have the prospect of such a famous victory, simply by changing their leader must appear almost irresistible.
Add to this the rumours that Corbyn is fed up with the job and would actually welcome the opportunity to quit and those 3.4 odds (2.4/1 in old money) against him ceasing to be leader by the end of 2019 and available from Betfair Sports and sister company Paddy Power look like value, compared with the somewhat cannier odds of 2/1 on offer from Shadsy at Ladbrokes. Of course this bet would also payout were Corbyn to resign and quit as leader after having lost a GE campaign this year.
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1155954695824740352?s=21
The sands are shifting.
He beat Clegg fair & square. What does that say about Clegg?
The big negative for the LibDems if there is a by-election is Clegg.
Clegg's reputation is beginning to rival Blair's in terms of squalid money-making & hypocrisy. Working for Facebook, after all the pious LibDem pronouncements on multinationals and tax !!!
It depends whether the voters of Sheffield Hallam are more forgiving of a multi-millionaire hypocrite --- or of an autistic young man with mental health problems.
How was anyone ever taken in by this fool?
More seriously, I can't see how this is damaging to Corbyn. Indeed, Campbell is so toxic his criticisms are likely to strengthen Corbyn's position.
(And of course if all the Blairites do leave, that makes it easier for another nutter - say, Pidcock or Long-Bailey - to win when Corbyn decides to spend more time with his runner beans.)
There’s a joke in here somewhere about Marxist clubs.
Only a fool doesn’t listen to criticism.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1155903382277820418
Has he fully acknowledged his role in the death of David Kelly yet?
Brexit began with the Iraq War.
Again, I have to say it is a very unimpressive letter. While I agree with many of his criticisms of Corbyn - while most people would, indeed - there's a self-justificatory whine running all the way through, along with many very dubious claims about his own record and some rather weird sentence construction.
And because he is Alistair Campbell and most members of the Labour left consider him (despite all the judicial inquiries stating the contrary) a liar, forger and war monger this is, as I've said, exactly the sort of critic that will strengthen Corbyn. The trifling detail that he was instrumental in winning three elections - the only three elections Labour has won with working majorities in over fifty years - will not matter to them.
The same goes for Alistair Campbell.
No-one wants anything more to do with him because of reasons of cleanliness.
He's done more for the working class than Jeremy Corbyn.
It came after Johnson was fiercely booed by crowds when he arrived earlier in the day.
I'll get my coat...
It is one thing to believe that the end justifies the means, a dangerous and immoral belief in anyone, let alone a senior politician. It is quite another to refuse to recognise that the end you sought was a delusion.
He is, of course, correct now, and Alistair is right to think it significant that he has no further desire to return to Labour. But the significance of the message will be ignored by most of its audience simply because of the messenger’s identity.
I'm pretty sure there's a lot of correlation between those who most opposed the Iraq war and those who oppose Brexit.
I'd lump on, but wouldn't want to ruin Shadsy's Christmas bonus.
Now THAT might put his supporters off...
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1156094310678487041
BSF, to be honest, is something Labour should keep very quiet about. It has led to almost no improvement in school buildings at costs that will remain to plague us for decades.
So his analogy is a pile of dung.
So unless we think Labour will install a leader from the Parliamentary party alone an£ not go to the membership - highly disadvantageous to the Corbyn faction - then I can’t see it. He will need to carry until November. Is it possible to even organise contest between November and Dec 31st. Would they want to if significant no deal issues need resolving?
Nor did the extra spending on electricity bills exactly improve matters, albeit not paying them would have severely disimproved matters.
It's not obvious, however, that we'd do much better with a specific other leader after the usual trial by media of the new person (polls with specific other leaders just show a small bounce), and even more dubious that we can do it with someone with what we see as attractive policies and principles. Winning under an Umunna clone seems not worth the effort. I know the argument that we owe it to people suffering under the Tories, but we lack confidence that a centrist would actually do much about that. Better to roll the dice and hope that the current flux produces the result that we want.
Might he quit this year anyway? No - at a personal level, the sense of duty overpowers any distaste for the job. Health could intervene at some point, but not yet. And if he was going to do it this year for the party's sake, he'd have done it now, to give the new leader time to win and then speak at the conference.
And finally there's a certain perverse reluctance to let his habitual opponents push us around. Most of us are fed up with hearing moaning from the usual suspects. If a new leadership challenge was forced on us by them, we'd rally round.
If I had a risk management consultant who advised me to send the letter without balancing the competing risks, I'd fire him - and advise that none should employ this fool.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_Schools_for_the_Future
Whether it was cost effective or not it was certainly investment in my eyes. Capital spending to extend, modify and improve school facilities rather than revenue spending to pay teachers or ancilliary staff.
I’m as anti-Corbyn and anti-Brexit as they come. My country has been taken away from me by extremists.
But I truly doubt that Alistair Campbell is going to change any minds.
Similarly with Brexit. I could see from the off that it was built on a set of false assumptions and this would lead to a big mess as those assumptions unravel. It hasn't fully played out yet, so we will have to see if Brexit is successfully delivered and we all move on. I am still confident of my original expectation of an intractable mess.
I should say, I am an imposter on this site. I am not good at predictions , but always confident of the Iraq and Brexit ones.
Corbyn isnt interested in the working class, merely the unionised part of it, he will have more loyalty and support from middle class public sector workers than traditional working class. The other group that might benefit from Corbynism could be the precariat.
Imagine such a cabal in government with the powers of the state at their disposal.
As for Campbell, members' simple reaction will be that it's good we pushed him before he jumped, since he was obviously poised to go.
Arguably the same can be said for the Tories. Normally, the likes of Major claiming the party was at serious risk would necessitate a hearing. Now, he just gets ignored due to his role in the debacle by allowing Maastricht.
The contracts for two projects I have most knowledge of have been resold three times since the work was carried out - each time at a profit. One of the schools went in to special measures and came very close to closing, before being absorbed into a MAT.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-united-kingdom-trip-1.4563485
Like a fool, I supported the Iraq War initially.
I never dreamed a British PM would lie to the country over such a thing.
This is a meeting on October 17th to rubberstamp discussions made over the next 2 months
As PM Boris has neither the time nor the security risk to waste time confronting ranting Nats
Teachers salaries are a big driver for retention, motivation, training and recruitment - if salaries are low, the above all drop and future teaching becomes worse, if salaries are high future teaching become better.
This is pedantry gone wrong.
As PM - especially now - you must expect brick bats.
Asserting something does not make it true or a valid argument.
The credulity of the electorate persists.