Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited July 30 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    First again. This is becoming a habit. Like the LDs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    edited July 30
    Lib Dem?

    Sorry, I meant first?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    I agree. The Tories must be better than a 4% chance. Not favourites, mind, but much more likely than that. Depends how much Boris' more Brexity than Nige has cut through. And how much the candidate's conviction has been an issue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,780
    DavidL said:

    Lib Dem?

    Sorry, I meant first?

    Is this a sign? Second after all
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520
    dixiedean said:

    I agree. The Tories must be better than a 4% chance. Not favourites, mind, but much more likely than that. Depends how much Boris' more Brexity than Nige has cut through. And how much the candidate's conviction has been an issue.

    I suspect Boris will do better than many on here expect but not enough due to the selection of the wrong candidate..
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,293
    DavidL said:

    Lib Dem?

    Sorry, I meant first?

    Second. Is that an omen?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,514
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Lib Dem?

    Sorry, I meant first?

    Is this a sign? Second after all
    Where is your bar chart 📊?

    Only DavidL can be first here?
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,771
    Johnson can boast how much the lowered exchange rate will boost exports.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387
    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 61,387

    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?
    Yes, Brecon and Radnor is full of pensioners and farmhouses
  • HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?
    In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,881
    Shame postal voting started when May was PM.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    Shame postal voting started when May was PM.

    Ah so that’s the excuse. Gotcha.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    Shame postal voting started when May was PM.

    It is very unlikely this will have made any difference either way in this seat.

    How many times do I have to remind people that this is a seat that isn't bound by national political norms?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    edited July 30
    A rare chance for me to agree with HY that this will probably see a narrow LD win.

    Sitting at home as a PB keyboard warrior I’d have confidently predicted a convincing LibDem gain. Having spent three days driving around the north of the constituency I am not so sure.

    The LibDems aren’t fighting a directly anti-Brexit campaign because there are an awful lot of Brexity people there (many living in holiday parks originally designed as short term summer rental that are now entirely owner occupied). The LDs are fighting the better organised campaign, but the geographical realities of the seat are that it is very difficult to reach very many of the voters. The LDs are being careful not to attack Davies directly, using phrases such as “an MP who put Brecon on the map for the wrong reasons” to keep the issue obliquely in voters’ minds.

    I think the LDs are home principally because Brexit Party Ltd. are spending a lot of money direct mailing leave voters within the constituency. And so the result will probably be Eastleigh redux.
  • eekeek Posts: 5,520

    Shame postal voting started when May was PM.

    Ah so that’s the excuse. Gotcha.
    That and a convicted fraudster as a candidate.

    To an extent it's a pity the fraudster won't win - he would fit right in with the new cabinet..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,881
    ydoethur said:

    Shame postal voting started when May was PM.

    It is very unlikely this will have made any difference either way in this seat.

    How many times do I have to remind people that this is a seat that isn't bound by national political norms?
    If its close it could have made the difference.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    Can we have another YouGov soon please?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    ydoethur said:

    Shame postal voting started when May was PM.

    It is very unlikely this will have made any difference either way in this seat.

    How many times do I have to remind people that this is a seat that isn't bound by national political norms?
    If its close it could have made the difference.
    No, because the people who voted first will be the ones who were least likely to change their minds. I am guessing incidentally they were probably also disproportionately Liberal Democrats not Conservatives, another way in which this seat doesn't follow norms.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743

    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?
    In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!
    The LD campaign is finding that its phone number records contain a lot of wrong numbers - suggesting that the trend toward mobiles is well underway even in a poor rural area like Brecon. Because it is hard to get there physically, the LDs have a lot of members volunteering to phone canvass from home, but there aren’t enough reliable contact numbers to keep them all occupied.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?
    In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!
    The LD campaign is finding that its phone number records contain a lot of wrong numbers - suggesting that the trend toward mobiles is well underway even in a poor rural area like Brecon. Because it is hard to get there physically, the LDs have a lot of members volunteering to phone canvass from home, but there aren’t enough reliable contact numbers to keep them all occupied.
    Interesting info. Thanks!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    eek said:

    Shame postal voting started when May was PM.

    Ah so that’s the excuse. Gotcha.
    That and a convicted fraudster as a candidate.

    To an extent it's a pity the fraudster won't win - he would fit right in with the new cabinet..
    If he does win it's a pretty shocking indictment of the Liberal Democrats.

    Win or lose, both sides picked the wrong candidates. The Conservatives may have felt they were boxed into a corner given the local controversy over the recall petition. What is the Yellows' excuse?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,823
    dixiedean said:

    I agree. The Tories must be better than a 4% chance. Not favourites, mind, but much more likely than that. Depends how much Boris' more Brexity than Nige has cut through. And how much the candidate's conviction has been an issue.

    In betting terms they have a 4% chance. In reality they have no chance, so I won't be risking a worn farthing on a Tory win. My prediction is for the LDs to be 10 percentage points ahead of them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743

    Shame postal voting started when May was PM.

    The view on the ground is that the ascent of Bozo has won back Brexit Party Ltd. voters from the Tories, but done nothing to stem the flow of Tory remainers toward the LibDems. Insofar as the timing of the postal voters are concerned (and it is true that almost every postal voter I met over the weekend had already sent theirs back), it would hang on the balance between leaver and remainer PVs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?
    In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!
    The LD campaign is finding that its phone number records contain a lot of wrong numbers - suggesting that the trend toward mobiles is well underway even in a poor rural area like Brecon. Because it is hard to get there physically, the LDs have a lot of members volunteering to phone canvass from home, but there aren’t enough reliable contact numbers to keep them all occupied.
    Or that a lot of people are switching to non-BT phone suppliers?

    I know it's supposed to be easy to keep your number but from bitter experience it isn't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,123
    edited July 30
    I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.

    Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.

    But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    As a self declared remain voter, your view of these developments is....?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,931
    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 363
    The Conservative candidate cannot be that popular otherwise 10,000 would not have signed the petition. Presuming they will not vote for him he clearly has a big problem to overcome.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
    Midlands, Wales, southern England
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    He's had a few honeymoons tbf.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?
    Yes, Brecon and Radnor is full of pensioners and farmhouses
    But the intersection of the Venn diagram of those two is nevertheless sparsely populated.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,084
    Absolutely no chance that the Tories will win this by election..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    theakes said:

    The Conservative candidate cannot be that popular otherwise 10,000 would not have signed the petition. Presuming they will not vote for him he clearly has a big problem to overcome.

    That doesn't follow. You would have found 10,000 voters in Blackburn to recall Jack Straw in 2003, yet he was personally very popular.

    Just because 20% dislike him enough to sack him doesn't mean a significant chunk of the remaining 80% do as well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
    He means a rare adventure beyond the M25
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,123
    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 4,489

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    I thought you were a good muslim boy?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
    He's probably been way out of the metropolis to distant Bucks and Essex. :wink:
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
    He means a rare adventure beyond the M25
    No, I mean south of The River and north of The Heath, AND ALL PLACES BEYOND
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 23,881

    I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.

    Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.

    But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.

    Basically

    4% < Odds of Tories winning < 50%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    edited July 30

    I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.

    Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.

    But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.

    The Tory remainers mention the MP’s misdemeanours as an additional reason why they might switch their vote. The Tory leavers aren’t bothered, more concerned with whether voting Tory or BXP Ltd. is the most effective pro-Brexit vote. Both Tory and BXP Ltd. campaigns are relying heavily on direct mail, so it is hard to read how this is playing out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,123
    edited July 30

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    I thought you were a good muslim boy?
    I married an infidel, I'm a good Muslim boy two days a year, one of which will be next week.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,411

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    I thought you were a good muslim boy?
    I married an infidel, I'm a good Muslim boy twice a year, one of which will be next week.
    How much did you get on at 26? (The bet)
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 6,236
    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    I think you're missing the joke there @ydoethur
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,931
    Byronic said:

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
    Midlands, Wales, southern England
    Thank you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    I did, yes.

    You might say I blew that one...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    edited July 30
    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    I did, yes.

    You might say I blew that one...
    Don't be too hard on yourself.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,123
    Omnium said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    I thought you were a good muslim boy?
    I married an infidel, I'm a good Muslim boy twice a year, one of which will be next week.
    How much did you get on at 26? (The bet)
    I didn't get the 26s, someone snapped it up before I did. I think I got 23s. I got the princely sum of £5.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,395
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    Who on earth would you be ringing? Landlines?
    In this part of the UK I imagine landlines are still very much essential!
    The LD campaign is finding that its phone number records contain a lot of wrong numbers - suggesting that the trend toward mobiles is well underway even in a poor rural area like Brecon. Because it is hard to get there physically, the LDs have a lot of members volunteering to phone canvass from home, but there aren’t enough reliable contact numbers to keep them all occupied.
    Or that a lot of people are switching to non-BT phone suppliers?

    I know it's supposed to be easy to keep your number but from bitter experience it isn't.
    I don't answer the landline any more, so high are the odds that it is someone from Microsoft wanting my credit card details. And if I did answer a call from a pollster I think I would assume from their preamble and the fact that I didn't know them, that it was Microsoft again or a double glazing offer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled.
    The one big thing on a national level if the Liberal Democrats win, is it makes an election potentially less attractive to the Tories who will see it as Copeland in reverse and at the same time rather more likely.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,931

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
    He's probably been way out of the metropolis to distant Bucks and Essex. :wink:
    Oooh. Almost as far as Epping!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    I did, yes.

    You might say I blew that one...
    Don't be too hard on yourself.
    That pun was as it turns out a flop.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 981

    I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.

    Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.

    But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.

    Ephemeral? If Johnson continues to say nothing, refusing all media (recorded) interviews it could last forever. The BBC here in Wales have managed to construct a positive message from Johnson's silence today.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,931
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    I did, yes.

    You might say I blew that one...
    Don't be too hard on yourself.
    That pun was as it turns out a flop.
    That's a flaccid response.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    I did, yes.

    You might say I blew that one...
    Don't be too hard on yourself.
    That pun was as it turns out a flop.
    That's a flaccid response.
    Come on, I'm doing my best.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    edited July 30
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    When you use the word "provinces", which bits do you mean?
    He means a rare adventure beyond the M25
    No, I mean south of The River and north of The Heath, AND ALL PLACES BEYOND
    The wonders of Thameslink from just down the road in St Pancras. :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,123

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    If you thought that was lewd I'm really proud of this picture I used in a PB thread header, I think it went over the heads of most PBers.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    If you thought that was lewd I'm really proud of this picture I used in a PB thread header, I think it went over the heads of most PBers.


    :lol:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    edited July 30
    With all the talk of the Leave vote being split between the Tories and BXP I was surprised to see that there is a UKIP candidate too. How long will UKIP soldier on for, I wonder?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 77,123

    I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.

    Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.

    But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.

    Ephemeral? If Johnson continues to say nothing, refusing all media (recorded) interviews it could last forever. The BBC here in Wales have managed to construct a positive message from Johnson's silence today.
    It will be ephemeral after sustained No Deal.

    The Tories will poll single digits.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    edited July 30
    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.

    Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,486
    I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.

    All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?



  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.
    You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.

    I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.

    If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled.
    The one big thing on a national level if the Liberal Democrats win, is it makes an election potentially less attractive to the Tories who will see it as Copeland in reverse and at the same time rather more likely.
    Being pedantic, if a LibDem win makes a GE both more and less likely can it really be such a 'big thing' or is it in fact irrelevant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    With all the talk of the Leave vote being split between the Tories and BXP I was surprised to see that there is a UKIP candidate too. How long will UKIP soldier on for, I wonder?

    Until the donkey's honour is safe from marauding horses with homosexual tendencies.

    Or they have all made complete asses of themselves.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    edited July 30
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.
    You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.

    I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.

    If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.
    ... and if he achieves Brexit by No Dealing on 31st October he is also fucked (unfortunately, in that instance, so is the country).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    ydoethur said:

    With all the talk of the Leave vote being split between the Tories and BXP I was surprised to see that there is a UKIP candidate too. How long will UKIP soldier on for, I wonder?

    Until the donkey's honour is safe from marauding horses with homosexual tendencies.

    Or they have all made complete asses of themselves.
    There is also a female Loony candidate, who I saw having a very nice cream tea in the Aspidistra Tea Rooms yesterday in the company of someone who looked very like the Howling Laud.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,931
    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    I did, yes.

    You might say I blew that one...
    Don't be too hard on yourself.
    That pun was as it turns out a flop.
    That's a flaccid response.
    Come on, I'm doing my best.
    Perhaps if you wait ten minutes you can try again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.
    You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.

    I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.

    If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.
    In that latter case, at least as fellow remainers we’ll both be cheering!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    Byronic said:

    You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales.

    Brecon and Radnor is the largest seat outside the Scottish Highlands.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,678
    It is possible, and the Tories have nothing to lose by throwing everything in to it. Wonder if they'll test some of those Facebook ads.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    tpfkar said:

    I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.

    All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?



    The contest for 3rd could be interesting.

    If the LDs fail to win, it will reduce the chances of pro-Remain party cooperation at any autumn GE.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled.
    The one big thing on a national level if the Liberal Democrats win, is it makes an election potentially less attractive to the Tories who will see it as Copeland in reverse and at the same time rather more likely.
    Being pedantic, if a LibDem win makes a GE both more and less likely can it really be such a 'big thing' or is it in fact irrelevant.
    Not necessarily. It might be the thing that finally triggers Mr Present But Not Involved to table a motion of no confidence.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,437

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.
    You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.

    I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.

    If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.
    ... and if he achieves Brexit by No Dealing on 31st October he is also fucked (unfortunately, in that instance, so is the country).
    "No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales."

    Especially as first week in August. Half the country is away on holiday.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778

    It is possible, and the Tories have nothing to lose by throwing everything in to it. Wonder if they'll test some of those Facebook ads.

    Are they big users of Facebook in B & R?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743
    edited July 30
    tpfkar said:

    I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.

    All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?



    Given the effort they are making, I doubt that BXP Ltd. will do as badly as that.

    Although you do raise one possible consequence of this by-election in that a bad BXP Ltd. performance, even with a LibDem win, might be the Tories’ opportunity to put them out of business. Raising the stakes considerably for the anti-Brexit parties, and for Labour still perched on its fence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    I did, yes.

    You might say I blew that one...
    Don't be too hard on yourself.
    That pun was as it turns out a flop.
    That's a flaccid response.
    Come on, I'm doing my best.
    Perhaps if you wait ten minutes you can try again.
    You're foreskin me to keep this conversation going.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 981

    I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.

    Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.

    But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.

    Ephemeral? If Johnson continues to say nothing, refusing all media (recorded) interviews it could last forever. The BBC here in Wales have managed to construct a positive message from Johnson's silence today.
    It will be ephemeral after sustained No Deal.

    The Tories will poll single digits.
    ...but Alun Cairns today proposed that the loss of the EU market to welsh sheep farmers in the event of no deal will be offset by exploiting the hitherto untapped Japanese market for welsh lamb.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    I did, yes.

    You might say I blew that one...
    Don't be too hard on yourself.
    That pun was as it turns out a flop.
    That's a flaccid response.
    Come on, I'm doing my best.
    Perhaps if you wait ten minutes you can try again.
    Ten minutes - blimey those were the days!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,437
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled.
    The one big thing on a national level if the Liberal Democrats win, is it makes an election potentially less attractive to the Tories who will see it as Copeland in reverse and at the same time rather more likely.
    Being pedantic, if a LibDem win makes a GE both more and less likely can it really be such a 'big thing' or is it in fact irrelevant.
    Not necessarily. It might be the thing that finally triggers Mr Present But Not Involved to table a motion of no confidence.
    Mr 'I went near the table, but I did not actually place a confidence motion on it'.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,786
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.

    Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.
    Aren't the sheep the ones most worried by loss of CAP and then a tariff putting an end to sheep farming?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743

    tpfkar said:

    I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.

    All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?



    The contest for 3rd could be interesting.

    If the LDs fail to win, it will reduce the chances of pro-Remain party cooperation at any autumn GE.
    Third is surely BXP Ltd. Everyone else will lose their deposit.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,678

    It is possible, and the Tories have nothing to lose by throwing everything in to it. Wonder if they'll test some of those Facebook ads.

    Are they big users of Facebook in B & R?
    I suspect so.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,437
    I have taken a nibble on Tories based on TSE's tip.

    If LibDems win I get to celebrate the first puncturing of the Boris bluster machine.

    If not, then I get £30 for a free Friday night curry.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 21,129

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.

    Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.
    Aren't the sheep the ones most worried by loss of CAP and then a tariff putting an end to sheep farming?
    The whole point about sheep is that they tend not to worry.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,778
    edited July 30
    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.

    All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?



    The contest for 3rd could be interesting.

    If the LDs fail to win, it will reduce the chances of pro-Remain party cooperation at any autumn GE.
    Third is surely BXP Ltd. Everyone else will lose their deposit.
    If BXP Ltd don't lose their deposit, I can't see the Tories winning.

    (Apols for the double-negative)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,411

    Omnium said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    I thought you were a good muslim boy?
    I married an infidel, I'm a good Muslim boy twice a year, one of which will be next week.
    How much did you get on at 26? (The bet)
    I didn't get the 26s, someone snapped it up before I did. I think I got 23s. I got the princely sum of £5.
    23s look good to me too - just about. I guess I'm just uncomfortable that such tiny amounts 'count'.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Erm....I think u missed the slightly lewd joke. :neutral:
    I did, yes.

    You might say I blew that one...
    Close ... but no cigar ....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743

    IanB2 said:

    tpfkar said:

    I just wonder if the Lib Dems and Tories might be the only ones to keep their Welsh deposits.

    All Remainers clearly being pointed in the LIb Dem direction, all leavers in the Tories'. Would be a heck of a comedown for the Brexit party but they seem to have had a lousy campaign and when you get squeezed in FPTP you get tiny vote shares. And as for Labour, where do you start at the moment?



    The contest for 3rd could be interesting.

    If the LDs fail to win, it will reduce the chances of pro-Remain party cooperation at any autumn GE.
    Third is surely BXP Ltd. Everyone else will lose their deposit.
    If BXP Ltd don't lose their deposit, I can't see the Tories winning.

    (Apols for the double-negative)
    Having spent three days there, I can’t see them losing their deposit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hmm, may pop along to CCHQ then on Thursday evening for some last minute phoning in Brecon to get out the vote.

    I think it will be a narrow LD win though even with the Boris bounce and Davies more popular than expected

    If sheep could vote, he’d be home already.

    Isn’t is weird how when it rains, the sheep don’t eat, move, or lie down, but simply stand where they are and fix their gaze on some spot on the horizon. Driving through the constituency this morning there were whole fields of sheep that might as well have been turned to stone.
    Aren't the sheep the ones most worried by loss of CAP and then a tariff putting an end to sheep farming?

    Only when it isn’t raining.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 1,952

    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    If the Tories do lose this by election I'll use the headline 'No honeymoon BJ'

    And again, you will be drawing the wrong lesson. If they lose this election it will be due to local factors, and as identified because of a shall we say interesting choice of candidate.

    Although I have no doubt it will be portrayed that way by the national media and become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    Both of you are wrong. It won’t be the end of the honeymoon (although hopefully it will deflate it) and it won’t be purely down to local factors. If this by-election had taken place a year or two back - with no honeymoon and no counter-reaction to Brexit, the LibDems would have struggled. For one thing, they would probably be competing with PC and Green candidates.
    You're right. It won't remotely be the end of the honeymoon. No one gives a toss about a tiny by-election in rural Wales. They do care about Brexit (pro and anti). The result will not affect the narrative.

    I reckon, on balance, Boris' honeymoon might last until October 31. Because much of the country is just willing him on. JUST GET IT DONE. And he is a comic relief after Theresa May.

    If he fails to Brexit by Halloween (or he doesn't alter the narrative in another way, by - e.g. - winning an election) then he is fucked.
    ... and if he achieves Brexit by No Dealing on 31st October he is also fucked (unfortunately, in that instance, so is the country).
    What struck me in the Interviews With The Provincials is how many of them think: No Deal won't be so bad. And if it is, well fuck it, we went through the Blitz, we can cope with a Welsh Lamb blockade.

    I do not agree with these sentiments. I think Brexit could be significantly and pointlessly bad for the Union, and the British economy - certainly over the long term - but there is no doubt this national mood is building. We can cope. Bring it on. Etc.



  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,633
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    With all the talk of the Leave vote being split between the Tories and BXP I was surprised to see that there is a UKIP candidate too. How long will UKIP soldier on for, I wonder?

    Until the donkey's honour is safe from marauding horses with homosexual tendencies.

    Or they have all made complete asses of themselves.
    There is also a female Loony candidate, who I saw having a very nice cream tea in the Aspidistra Tea Rooms yesterday in the company of someone who looked very like the Howling Laud.
    What was Priti Patel doing there ?!?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,743

    I have taken a nibble on Tories based on TSE's tip.

    If LibDems win I get to celebrate the first puncturing of the Boris bluster machine.

    If not, then I get £30 for a free Friday night curry.

    FWIW the Tory price has come in from 25 to 15 today on BFE
This discussion has been closed.