On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister
I was about to call "shenanegans" on this (V1s don't have the range) but I find to my amazement that this did actually happen. The V1's were air launched by He111's! That is so amazing: God alone knows how they managed to pull it off. But there y'go.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
I did , because it finished off the Unions as relevant
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
Jeez Khaleez.
I specifically said a "universal/national" suffering. That's what I wrote. Clearly the miners' strike was very far from that. It was a harrowing and divisive event, cleaved along class/geographic lines. So it was awful for everyone.
Hard Hard Brexit will, by contrast, impact Brits of all classes, races, backgrounds. Welsh sheep farmers will suffer. But so will property owners in Knightsbridge. Sure, Nissan workers in Sunderland will worry, but so will City bankers on Lombard Street. It will be a national event, embracing the entire community.
If the government is clever in framing it that way (and Boris is emotionally smart) then I predict we will react the way all people do when presented with an existential threat to the tribe: they will unite, and snarl at the aggressor.
There'll be an element of that no doubt, and the fact of being out may well break some of the current resistors to Brexit even as others dream of a very quick rejoining. I'm hesistant to think it will be as large a reaction as you suggest, only for the reason that even if we regard such difficulties as exist as an existential, external threat to the tribe, a large portion simply will not be able to ignore that it is the people currently at the top of the tribe who got us here after 3 years of pissing about, even when they had the numbers to see it through.
That sounds more reasonable. Byronic has a facility for superficially persuasive scenarios which is singular.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
p.s.The one consolation is that there is no better way to get to know an area than to go campaigning for an election there. I have a better feel for B&R than any random tourist who simply did the town centre and the obvious tourist sites. And there are some lucky people living there with the most staggeringly beautiful views from their home. I hope they appreciate them.
With that, I agree. B&R is perhaps the most beautiful constituency in the UK, alongside
To be clear. I was well aware other parts of the country were heavily bombed during WW2. Of course I was. I merely thought the Blitz referred specifically and exclusively to London. Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.
The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.
Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.
The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?
The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
I don't remember anyone of my acquaintance enjoying the Miner's Strike.
Jeez Khaleez.
I specifically said a "universal/national" suffering. That's what I wrote. Clearly the miners' strike was very far from that. It was a harrowing and divisive event, cleaved along class/geographic lines. So it was awful for everyone.
Hard Hard Brexit will, by contrast, impact Brits of all classes, races, backgrounds. Welsh sheep farmers will suffer. But so will property owners in Knightsbridge. Sure, Nissan workers in Sunderland will worry, but so will City bankers on Lombard Street. It will be a national event, embracing the entire community.
If the government is clever in framing it that way (and Boris is emotionally smart) then I predict we will react the way all people do when presented with an existential threat to the tribe: they will unite, and snarl at the aggressor.
Who is the aggressor? The evil EU or the liars who claimed project fear was an imaginary construct proposed by lèft-wing traitors?
To be clear. I was well aware other parts of the country were heavily bombed during WW2. Of course I was. I merely thought the Blitz referred specifically and exclusively to London. Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.
I too would have assumed it referred to London. But according to WP: ”The Blitz was a German bombing campaign against Britain in 1940 and 1941, during the Second World War. The term was first used by the British press and is the German word for 'lightning'.”
The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.
Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.
The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?
The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer
So what will they do if no one can form a government without their backing and yet Corbyn and Boris remain leaders of their respective parties? I'm to believe they would not even consider backing the former, no matter what he offered in return? I don't buy it.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
10pm. Yep, you're about a bottle in.
One and a half bottles, to be precise.
I wish all PB-ers Good Night to the Enterprises of Today, and God Speed to the Doings of Tomorrow. Sleep well.
What's the current record for the shortest gap between a by-election and a subsequent general election?
Surely Liverpool Edge Hill (?) in 1979 won by David Alton. Took place almost immediately after the No Confidence motion had been passed and a general election announced.
The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.
Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.
The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?
The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer
So what will they do if no one can form a government without their backing and yet Corbyn and Boris remain leaders of their respective parties? I'm to believe they would not even consider backing the former, no matter what he offered in return? I don't buy it.
We get a GE if no alternative government can be found right?
The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.
Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.
The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?
The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer
So what will they do if no one can form a government without their backing and yet Corbyn and Boris remain leaders of their respective parties? I'm to believe they would not even consider backing the former, no matter what he offered in return? I don't buy it.
We get a GE if no alternative government can be found right?
Presumably, but would they really go down that route if, as is surely the case, a big prize was offered to them?
I'll make one prediction right now - if we do have 2 GEs close together expect a number of people to moan about this showing what a basket case the country is, even as plenty of european countries have had multiple GEs in successive or near successive years.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister
I was about to call "shenanegans" on this (V1s don't have the range) but I find to my amazement that this did actually happen. The V1's were air launched by He111's! That is so amazing: God alone knows how they managed to pull it off. But there y'go.
That is a splendid link. ...one landed at the hamlet of Hubberton Green, Sowerby (near Halifax), just behind Little Toothill Farm. There were no immediate casualties, the farmer, Mr John Carter, was blown out of his bed and one end of the farm needed rebuilding. However his wife died some months later, her demise possibly brought on by the shock...
...Mr Booth also dug out a covering letter from the War Damage Commission dated December 28th 1944 and a claim form called a C1. The form should have been completed and returned for compensation but wasn’t, perhaps because it was up to the property owner to make good the repairs before any payout would be made, and that could take time.
Below; Detail of the War Damage Commission form C1. It refers to “Blast from flying bomb in field” and underneath says “Crater in ploughed field – stretch of dry stone wall”
I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.
Even if the Tories don't win (as expected), there'll probably be a moment during the night when an incorrect rumour that the Tories are in with a chance causes the betting odds to shift heavily in their favour. That would obviously be the time to cash out.
The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.
Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.
The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?
The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer
So what will they do if no one can form a government without their backing and yet Corbyn and Boris remain leaders of their respective parties? I'm to believe they would not even consider backing the former, no matter what he offered in return? I don't buy it.
They would abstain rather than make either Boris or Corbyn PM until alternatives are offered but would vote against Brexit and for EUref2
'Asked by one party member what he would do with the NHS, Johnson said the health service was “not getting the kind of support, and indeed the kind of changes and management, that it needs”, suggesting he would aim to overhaul the service. He said Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, had helped him get elected president of the Oxford Union as a student, and together they would “sort things out”. Friends of Cummings said: “Dom was clear that he thinks the British public care most about leaving the EU and want more money for the NHS. And with this prime minister, that’s exactly what the public will get.”' https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/dominic-cummings-tories-do-not-care-about-poor-people-or-the-nhs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
To be clear. I was well aware other parts of the country were heavily bombed during WW2. Of course I was. I merely thought the Blitz referred specifically and exclusively to London. Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.
I too would have assumed it referred to London. But according to WP: ”The Blitz was a German bombing campaign against Britain in 1940 and 1941, during the Second World War. The term was first used by the British press and is the German word for 'lightning'.”
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.
The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.
Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.
The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?
The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer
But Corbyn won't accept being ousted and even if he is he has sufficient numbers to deny Starmer.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.
I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.
I get the feeling that if the Tory candidate wasn't a crook then the Tories would win this, I've heard from multiple sources that his conviction has been mentioned by the voters.
Over the weekend we saw the Tories get a Boris bounce, likely ephemeral, I admire Matt Singh a lot but the one thing we learned in 2015 that constituency polling is bloody hard to do.
But at 26s I thought it was value, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to win this.
Even if the Tories don't win (as expected), there'll probably be a moment during the night when an incorrect rumour that the Tories are in with a chance causes the betting odds to shift heavily in their favour. That would obviously be the time to cash out.
That there's been a fall [at the referendum result]? This is not disputed. That there's been a fall now? Your data contradicts that, the spot now is not far off New Year and extremely close to 1/1/17 That the fall is dramatic? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, in fact its very minor compared to the 80s. That the fall matters? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, the 80s contradicts that. That the fall is bad news? Your data doesn't demonstrate that, the 80s contradicts that.
You're cherry picking. I posted a range of numbers so that people could judge the trend. Since the mid-Eighties (bear in mind that 1980-01-02 is the end of the Seventies) the rough value of GBP/USD has been £1=$1.6, or around there. Sometimes it was more, sometimes it was less, but it was around there. The day after referendum day it slid to $1.35, then after May's conference speech it slid to $1.2, then it recovered to around $1.3 to $1.35, then when Parliament rejected the deal and May resigned it went to around $1.25 until Boris became PM, and now it's downwards again.
If you like, we can go back to 1925 (£1=$4.86, gold standard) or 1965 (£1=$2.7?) or 1969 (£1=$2.4?). If we go further back, I'll have to start looking stuff up.
It's often said that the UK never defaults, because it always devalues. The long-term trend for GBP is downwards, but year-to-year it is stable within a range, until something happens, then it slides, stabilize, then we go round again. Your contention that the pound is not falling is wrong. Whether this is important or good/bad is a different question, but yes it is falling.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Latest YouGov has the Brexit Party still on 13% but nonetheless the Boris Tories have an election winning 31% to 21% lead over Labour with the LDs on 20%.
Where the Brexit Party still has appeal is amongst working class voters, while Farage's Party is now only on 11% with middle class ABC1s amongst working class C2DEs it is on 17% , ahead of the LDs on 16%. The Brexit Party now polls best in the North where it is also on 17%
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Latest YouGov has the Brexit Party still on 13% but nonetheless the Boris Tories have an election winning 31% to 21% lead over Labour with the LDs on 20%.
Yes, your faith in the immutability of polling leads is a wonder to behold. It proves that Nick Clegg won 100+ seats in 2010, that David Cameron had no chance of winning a majority in 2015, and I'm really pleased by Theresa May's humongous majority of 2017.
To be clear. I was well aware other parts of the country were heavily bombed during WW2. Of course I was. I merely thought the Blitz referred specifically and exclusively to London. Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.
Strangely, one of my fathers memories of the war is being taken by my grandfather to a hilltop near his house in Wigan to watch Liverpool burn. It may even have been the same raid.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Latest YouGov has the Brexit Party still on 13% but nonetheless the Boris Tories have an election winning 31% to 21% lead over Labour with the LDs on 20%.
Now, you know you are cherry picking one of 4 polls released on the same day. Strangely, the best of the 4 for Boris. The average of those polls was Con 30 Lab 25 LD 20 and Brex 14.5.
You're cherry picking. I posted a range of numbers so that people could judge the trend. Since the mid-Eighties (bear in mind that 1980-01-02 is the end of the Seventies) the rough value of GBP/USD has been £1=$1.6, or around there. Sometimes it was more, sometimes it was less, but it was around there. The day after referendum day it slid to $1.35, then after May's conference speech it slid to $1.2, then it recovered to around $1.3 to $1.35, then when Parliament rejected the deal and May resigned it went to around $1.25 until Boris became PM, and now it's downwards again.
If you like, we can go back to 1925 (£1=$4.86, gold standard) or 1965 (£1=$2.7?) or 1969 (£1=$2.4?). If we go further back, I'll have to start looking stuff up.
It's often said that the UK never defaults, because it always devalues. The long-term trend for GBP is downwards, but year-to-year it is stable within a range, until something happens, then it slides, stabilize, then we go round again. Your contention that the pound is not falling is wrong. Whether this is important or good/bad is a different question, but yes it is falling.
Which was my point.
Except I didn't contend that the pound is not falling.
I contender that given we have low inflation the pounds fall is good news, for as long as we keep inflation under control.
I also contend that the pound is not falling that dramatically which is true. Despite the fact 3 years ago nobody seriously thought there would be No Deal, while now we are in a Mexican Standoff making it quite plausible, we now have an exchange rate almost identical to what it was 3 years ago.
My main thought is that the pound varies within a range, but tends over the long term to fall especially on events. It hasn't fallen significantly relative to 3 years ago yet but probably will if there actually is No Deal. Which given we keep low inflation at the minute and a major structural deficit on exports v imports is probably no bad thing.
'Asked by one party member what he would do with the NHS, Johnson said the health service was “not getting the kind of support, and indeed the kind of changes and management, that it needs”, suggesting he would aim to overhaul the service. He said Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, had helped him get elected president of the Oxford Union as a student, and together they would “sort things out”. Friends of Cummings said: “Dom was clear that he thinks the British public care most about leaving the EU and want more money for the NHS. And with this prime minister, that’s exactly what the public will get.”' https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/dominic-cummings-tories-do-not-care-about-poor-people-or-the-nhs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
A massive health spending splurge from Boris/Cummings might be smart politics. Wasn't Farage once filmed on Fox News banging on about scrapping the NHS? If so, then contrasting Farage's mean, far-right ogre against Boris's Florence Nightingale should pay dividends.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.
I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.
It looks like one of my better predictions.
I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.
The Government's majority only falls to one on the basis of Charles Elphicke being included with the Opposition as a result of the Tory Whip having been withdrawn. In reality, he is not disaffected and unlikely to rebel. The real effective majority would,therefore, be three.
Don't think it changes much. If Grieve joins the opposition he won't be the only one.
The key variable we don't know is whether anyone can be made PM. I suspect Corbyn will veto anyone but himself, and will Grieve and Chuka and Luciana Berger and everyone else be prepared to install Corbyn into Downing Street?
The LDs and CUK will only put Labour in Government if Corbyn is ousted and replaced by Starmer
But Corbyn won't accept being ousted and even if he is he has sufficient numbers to deny Starmer.
Yet not to ensure he becomes PM if the LDs and CUK refuse to back him in another hung parliament
'Asked by one party member what he would do with the NHS, Johnson said the health service was “not getting the kind of support, and indeed the kind of changes and management, that it needs”, suggesting he would aim to overhaul the service. He said Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, had helped him get elected president of the Oxford Union as a student, and together they would “sort things out”. Friends of Cummings said: “Dom was clear that he thinks the British public care most about leaving the EU and want more money for the NHS. And with this prime minister, that’s exactly what the public will get.”' https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/dominic-cummings-tories-do-not-care-about-poor-people-or-the-nhs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
A massive health spending splurge from Boris/Cummings might be smart politics. Wasn't Farage once filmed on Fox News banging on about scrapping the NHS? If so, then contrasting Farage's mean, far-right ogre against Boris's Florence Nightingale should pay dividends.
Exactly, Farage is the real Trumpster and in fact more Tea Party than Trump, Farage for example backed Roy Moore who even The Donald backed away from
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
It was Farage drifting off the scene which took much of the impetus away after 2016. He won't be so daft as to scarper a second time.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.
I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.
It looks like one of my better predictions.
I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.
Pro and anti strike. Riven families and communities.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Latest YouGov has the Brexit Party still on 13% but nonetheless the Boris Tories have an election winning 31% to 21% lead over Labour with the LDs on 20%.
Now, you know you are cherry picking one of 4 polls released on the same day. Strangely, the best of the 4 for Boris. The average of those polls was Con 30 Lab 25 LD 20 and Brex 14.5.
So Boris Conservatives still clearly ahead even with Brexit Party on 14.5%, the week before under May Labour was still narrowly ahead on average and the Brexit Party closer to 20% than 15%
Spouting off on radio, or in newspapers, or in a single issue referendum is one thing, running complex government departments quite another. I fear we are about to find out that the skill sets are not exactly transferable.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Latest YouGov has the Brexit Party still on 13% but nonetheless the Boris Tories have an election winning 31% to 21% lead over Labour with the LDs on 20%.
Yes, your faith in the immutability of polling leads is a wonder to behold. It proves that Nick Clegg won 100+ seats in 2010, that David Cameron had no chance of winning a majority in 2015, and I'm really pleased by Theresa May's humongous majority of 2017.
Clegg was polling well over 20% in the final days in 2010 but well below the 30% he got after the first debate, several polls had Cameron's Tories ahead of Ed Miliband's Labour on eve of poll in 2015 and May won comfortably most seats in 2017 even if short of a majority and few of the final polls gave the Tories a landslide anyway post her dementia tax plans
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Talking of WWII bombing mayhem, my parents met in the war when my father was a student at Birmingham University. When he was courting my mother, he invited her to a student dance. The evening was interrupted by an absolutely massive German bombing attack. (It might well have been the one which Churchill knew about in advance through the Enigma intercepts, but couldn't do anything about for fear of tipping off the Germans that Enigma code had been broken.) Much to my mother's delight, she had to spend the night with my father and the other would-be revellers in the basement of the dance hall. (This was the 1940s, so naturally it was entirely innocent!)
Many people were killed that night. In the morning my mother made her way home through a wasteland of bombed-out buildings. When she eventually got home, in shock, she was greeted by her mother who was absolutely furious - none of the 'are you all right, dear, I was so worried about you' stuff. Instead, it was 'how dare you spend the night away, what on earth will the neighbours think?'
To be clear. I was well aware other parts of the country were heavily bombed during WW2. Of course I was. I merely thought the Blitz referred specifically and exclusively to London. Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.
Strangely, one of my fathers memories of the war is being taken by my grandfather to a hilltop near his house in Wigan to watch Liverpool burn. It may even have been the same raid.
Gosh. What a coincidence. Wigan too. The hill was Longshoot in Whelley. But that would be too much of a coincidence.
Cummings was brought in to win for the Tories by fair means or foul. The BXP are therefore needing destruction, so are his main target. Farage is astute enough to realise.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.
I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.
It looks like one of my better predictions.
I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.
Pro and anti strike. Riven families and communities.
Still doesn't make any sense.
The UK was not some united brotherhood of man all in it together place before the Referendum.
On the subject of the country's willingness to risk No Deal Brexit, the "we went through the Blitz" thing is nonsense.
We didn't go through the Blitz; our ancestors 2 or 3 generations ago did. Very few of 'us' alive today lived through the Blitz and most of those who are still alive were children in 1940 so had little influence on how the country coped.
British williness to submit to deprivation was very different in 1940 to today, I suspect. I have just watched the first two parts of the rather good C4 three-part documentary "Living in the Shadow of World War Two". No way would today's UK society put up with Blitz levels of hardship today, especially if it had been self-inflicted.
I did when a v bomb cut off above our house in Manchester and, as our family waited terrified, it crashed a few miles away killing several residents
I respect your experience Big_G but you were, what, in your early teens? The capacity of the country to stand firm was not determined by teenagers but rather by your parents' and grandparents' generations. In any event the V-bombs came 4 years after the Blitz.
None of which is to diminish what must have been a truly terrifying experience for you and your family. My mother recounts a similar experience living in Islington - a V-1 bomb cut-off and landed a few hundred yards away, killing many neighbours.
I was a baby hidden under a steel table with my 8 year old sister
I was about to call "shenanegans" on this (V1s don't have the range) but I find to my amazement that this did actually happen. The V1's were air launched by He111's! That is so amazing: God alone knows how they managed to pull it off. But there y'go.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
If Boris delivers by doing a No Deal Brexit then Farage will get him three times over, first for the shambolic incompetence of the government's planning, secondly for failing to conclude trade deals, and thirdly for the traitrous agreements that he makes to get trade deals.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
To be clear. I was well aware other parts of the country were heavily bombed during WW2. Of course I was. I merely thought the Blitz referred specifically and exclusively to London. Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.
Strangely, one of my fathers memories of the war is being taken by my grandfather to a hilltop near his house in Wigan to watch Liverpool burn. It may even have been the same raid.
Gosh. What a coincidence. Wigan too. The hill was Longshoot in Whelley. But that would be too much of a coincidence.
Most of his other memories are of scrounging chewing gum from the US GIs, so rather more cheerful.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.
I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.
It looks like one of my better predictions.
I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.
Pro and anti strike. Riven families and communities.
Still doesn't make any sense.
The UK was not some united brotherhood of man all in it together place before the Referendum.
It makes perfect sense. Remain and leave are the anode and cathode placed in the chemical soup of British society; it's crystallizing it out into two distinct lumps
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
If Boris delivers by doing a No Deal Brexit then Farage will get him three times over, first for the shambolic incompetence of the government's planning, secondly for failing to conclude trade deals, and thirdly for the traitrous agreements that he makes to get trade deals.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
Are you Philip Hammond ?
No, just someone equally sensible.
And Gloomy.
Maggie faced bigger challenges than Brexit - can imagine she would have sent any Con types moping around feeling sorry for themselves offering no new solutions just misery off with a flea in their ears.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.
I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.
It looks like one of my better predictions.
I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.
Pro and anti strike. Riven families and communities.
Still doesn't make any sense.
The UK was not some united brotherhood of man all in it together place before the Referendum.
It makes perfect sense. Remain and leave are the anode and cathode placed in the chemical soup of British society; it's crystallizing it out into two distinct lumps
Well that might be a good analogy but the Nottinghamshire pit village wasn't.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
I think it will.
Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.
I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.
It will likely take years before it is clear unambiguously whether Brexit has been good or bad, the "fog of war" will be too real immediately ensuring people see what they believe/want to see at first.
And given that any disruptions are likely to be worse at first then easing up as we get used to what needs to be changed, then Brexiteers willing to give the benefit of the doubt and Remainers looking to cease on any 'bad news' (real or imagined) will all see what they already thought. By the time we get to the other end, life will have probably gotten back to normal and not many people convinced either way!
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
Talking of WWII bombing mayhem, my parents met in the war when my father was a student at Birmingham University. When he was courting my mother, he invited her to a student dance. The evening was interrupted by an absolutely massive German bombing attack. (It might well have been the one which Churchill knew about in advance through the Enigma intercepts, but couldn't do anything about for fear of tipping off the Germans that Enigma code had been broken.) M
This one fell within a mile or so of where I grew up, albeit much later. I only went across the fields in that direction a couple of times and I never knew about this.
Maggie faced bigger challenges than Brexit - can imagine she would have sent any Con types moping around feeling sorry for themselves offering no new solutions just misery off with a flea in their ears.
You are right. The trouble is, Boris has taken the opposite approach: putting his head in the sand and hoping that new solutions sprout spontaneously out of the desert.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.
I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.
It looks like one of my better predictions.
I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.
Pro and anti strike. Riven families and communities.
Still doesn't make any sense.
The UK was not some united brotherhood of man all in it together place before the Referendum.
It makes perfect sense. Remain and leave are the anode and cathode placed in the chemical soup of British society; it's crystallizing it out into two distinct lumps
Well that might be a good analogy but the Nottinghamshire pit village wasn't.
Maggie faced bigger challenges than Brexit - can imagine she would have sent any Con types moping around feeling sorry for themselves offering no new solutions just misery off with a flea in their ears.
You are right. The trouble is, Boris has taken the opposite approach: putting his head in the sand and hoping that new solutions sprout spontaneously out of the desert.
No he's picked up Maggie's rebate winning handbag, something May failed conspicuously to do.
First leader of this country in 30 years to stand up to Europe and put Britain first. We might not be leaving if others had followed in her footsteps before now.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
If Boris delivers by doing a No Deal Brexit then Farage will get him three times over, first for the shambolic incompetence of the government's planning, secondly for failing to conclude trade deals, and thirdly for the traitrous agreements that he makes to get trade deals.
No as Boris will have won a majority precisely to enable him to deliver that Brexit, Deal or No Deal, probably in an October general election
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
Are you Philip Hammond ?
No, just someone equally sensible.
And Gloomy.
Maggie faced bigger challenges than Brexit - can imagine she would have sent any Con types moping around feeling sorry for themselves offering no new solutions just misery off with a flea in their ears.
Now of course the Heseltines, Priors etc vote LD anyway
Maggie faced bigger challenges than Brexit - can imagine she would have sent any Con types moping around feeling sorry for themselves offering no new solutions just misery off with a flea in their ears.
You are right. The trouble is, Boris has taken the opposite approach: putting his head in the sand and hoping that new solutions sprout spontaneously out of the desert.
No, Boris has finally committed to Brexit on October 31st Deal or No Deal
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
Are you Philip Hammond ?
No, just someone equally sensible.
There is nothing sensible about Hammond rejecting proper No Deal planning.
Failing to prepare is preparing to fail and that is exactly what May and Hammond did.
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
I think it will.
Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.
I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.
It will likely take years before it is clear unambiguously whether Brexit has been good or bad, the "fog of war" will be too real immediately ensuring people see what they believe/want to see at first.
And given that any disruptions are likely to be worse at first then easing up as we get used to what needs to be changed, then Brexiteers willing to give the benefit of the doubt and Remainers looking to cease on any 'bad news' (real or imagined) will all see what they already thought. By the time we get to the other end, life will have probably gotten back to normal and not many people convinced either way!
I heartily agree with your analysis. Which is why I am not convinced "delivering Brexit" is a panacea some in the Tory Party breezily think.
Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.
I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.
I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
My god, you're all fucking stupid. I may have to find a smarter website.
People LIKE universal/national suffering, they positively enjoy it, because the anguished ego/self, with its trivial needs and greeds, is subsumed in a greater, grittier, grander endeavour.
"We are all in this together. Yes you will die on the Somme, but so will your brothers." And so on.
That this needs pointing out is quite revealing of the low watt, largely incel intelligence of PBers.
It won't be universal or national suffering. Half the country is vehemently opposed and will blame the other half. Don't expect blitz spirit, expect a shitstorm.
I recall saying to a Leaver very shortly after the referendum result - You have just turned the UK into a Nottinghamshire pit village circa 1985.
It looks like one of my better predictions.
I think you need to explain that because it doesn't seem to make any sense.
In the 1985 strike, Nottinghamshire in particular was a stronghold of the UDM, a more moderate breakaway union in favour of negotiation to Arthur Scargill s hardline and in part politically motivated NUM. Strike breakers aren't popular at the best of times, but this went well beyond and Nottinghamshire was the bitterest area of action. Plenty within those communities won't talk to each other to this day.
This one fell within a mile or so of where I grew up, albeit much later. I only went across the fields in that direction a couple of times and I never knew about this.
Maggie faced bigger challenges than Brexit - can imagine she would have sent any Con types moping around feeling sorry for themselves offering no new solutions just misery off with a flea in their ears.
You are right. The trouble is, Boris has taken the opposite approach: putting his head in the sand and hoping that new solutions sprout spontaneously out of the desert.
No, Boris has finally committed to Brexit on October 31st Deal or No Deal
No he's picked up Maggie's rebate winning handbag, something May failed conspicuously to do.
First leader of this country in 30 years to stand up to Europe and put Britain first. We might not be leaving if others had followed in her footsteps before now.
Maggie's 'rebate winning handbag' was a veto on the EU budget. Boris has what, exactly, to wield?
Well, quite. A point I made to my ex-friends in the Conservative Party, who realise Boris is unfit to be PM but who backed him in the naïve hope that Farage would therefore just give up and go home, having vicariously realised his dreams.
Not if Boris delivers.
Yes, a big 'if', followed by an even bigger 'if': if 'delivering' through crashing out in chaos turns out OK, which it won't.
Are you Philip Hammond ?
No, just someone equally sensible.
And Gloomy.
Maggie faced bigger challenges than Brexit - can imagine she would have sent any Con types moping around feeling sorry for themselves offering no new solutions just misery off with a flea in their ears.
One of Thatcher's favourite mantras was she liked people who brought her solutions, not problems. Which is why she tolerated a lot of people, such as Heseltine, who weren't natural allies. I don't see many in Boris' Cabinet like that. Gove, perhaps.
Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.
I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.
I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
There will be no reason to get to Stage 3 because we are scrappy and adaptable and can succeed in or out of the EU. Problems will be faced, will be rolled into problems everyone has anyway. Benefits will be taken, but your side will take them for granted and refuse to view it as a benefit of Brexit.
There isn't going to be some post-apocalyptic wasteland full of people wondering what went wrong.
Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.
I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.
I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
They can do what they want, who cares if as Yougov shows Boris leads Corbyn Labour 31% to 21% with the LDs on 20% the Tories win a majority regardless, even with the Brexit Party on 13/14%
Talking of WWII bombing mayhem, my parents met in the war when my father was a student at Birmingham University. When he was courting my mother, he invited her to a student dance. The evening was interrupted by an absolutely massive German bombing attack. (It might well have been the one which Churchill knew about in advance through the Enigma intercepts, but couldn't do anything about for fear of tipping off the Germans that Enigma code had been broken.) M
That was the Coventry raid in November 1940
Ah yes, I think you are right. This was probably late October 1940.
Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.
I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.
I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
They can do what they want, who cares if as Yougov shows Boris leads Corbyn Labour 31% to 21% with the LDs on 20% the Tories win a majority regardless, even with the Brexit Party on 13/14%
With lucky timing, it might work for one election, at the cost of utterly destroying the party thereafter (and doing enormous damage to the country, which is rather more important).
Comments
Byronic has a facility for superficially persuasive scenarios which is singular.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross,_Skye_and_Lochaber_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
And
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambridge_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Why I thought that is another matter entirely. Pure ignorance I guess.
I wish all PB-ers Good Night to the Enterprises of Today, and God Speed to the Doings of Tomorrow. Sleep well.
https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/1156315545303769089?s=21
Meanwhile the LDs are dialling cut off land lines...
TSE may win his bet yet.
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1156265731069100032
https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1156262529674436613?s=21
Titter.
I'll make one prediction right now - if we do have 2 GEs close together expect a number of people to moan about this showing what a basket case the country is, even as plenty of european countries have had multiple GEs in successive or near successive years.
A pleasant night to all.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7302741/Theresa-shops-jewellery-Lake-Garda-leaves-thought-Brexit-her.html
...one landed at the hamlet of Hubberton Green, Sowerby (near Halifax), just behind Little Toothill Farm. There were no immediate casualties, the farmer, Mr John Carter, was blown out of his bed and one end of the farm needed rebuilding. However his wife died some months later, her demise possibly brought on by the shock...
...Mr Booth also dug out a covering letter from the War Damage Commission dated December 28th 1944 and a claim form called a C1. The form should have been completed and returned for compensation but wasn’t, perhaps because it was up to the property owner to make good the repairs before any payout would be made, and that could take time.
Below; Detail of the War Damage Commission form C1.
It refers to “Blast from flying bomb in field” and underneath says “Crater in ploughed field – stretch of dry stone wall”
He said Simon Stevens, the NHS England chief executive, had helped him get elected president of the Oxford Union as a student, and together they would “sort things out”.
Friends of Cummings said: “Dom was clear that he thinks the British public care most about leaving the EU and want more money for the NHS. And with this prime minister, that’s exactly what the public will get.”'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/dominic-cummings-tories-do-not-care-about-poor-people-or-the-nhs?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
It looks like one of my better predictions.
If you like, we can go back to 1925 (£1=$4.86, gold standard) or 1965 (£1=$2.7?) or 1969 (£1=$2.4?). If we go further back, I'll have to start looking stuff up.
It's often said that the UK never defaults, because it always devalues. The long-term trend for GBP is downwards, but year-to-year it is stable within a range, until something happens, then it slides, stabilize, then we go round again. Your contention that the pound is not falling is wrong. Whether this is important or good/bad is a different question, but yes it is falling.
Which was my point.
Where the Brexit Party still has appeal is amongst working class voters, while Farage's Party is now only on 11% with middle class ABC1s amongst working class C2DEs it is on 17% , ahead of the LDs on 16%. The Brexit Party now polls best in the North where it is also on 17%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/28/voting-intention-con-31-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-13-
The average of those polls was Con 30 Lab 25 LD 20 and Brex 14.5.
I contender that given we have low inflation the pounds fall is good news, for as long as we keep inflation under control.
I also contend that the pound is not falling that dramatically which is true. Despite the fact 3 years ago nobody seriously thought there would be No Deal, while now we are in a Mexican Standoff making it quite plausible, we now have an exchange rate almost identical to what it was 3 years ago.
My main thought is that the pound varies within a range, but tends over the long term to fall especially on events. It hasn't fallen significantly relative to 3 years ago yet but probably will if there actually is No Deal. Which given we keep low inflation at the minute and a major structural deficit on exports v imports is probably no bad thing.
Many people were killed that night. In the morning my mother made her way home through a wasteland of bombed-out buildings. When she eventually got home, in shock, she was greeted by her mother who was absolutely furious - none of the 'are you all right, dear, I was so worried about you' stuff. Instead, it was 'how dare you spend the night away, what on earth will the neighbours think?'
The UK was not some united brotherhood of man all in it together place before the Referendum.
https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/the-blitz-around-britain
I think I recall other towns being hit later in the war too (excluding V weapons)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhj8ITvp-pw
Maggie faced bigger challenges than Brexit - can imagine she would have sent any Con types moping around feeling sorry for themselves offering no new solutions just misery off with a flea in their ears.
Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.
I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.
It will likely take years before it is clear unambiguously whether Brexit has been good or bad, the "fog of war" will be too real immediately ensuring people see what they believe/want to see at first.
And given that any disruptions are likely to be worse at first then easing up as we get used to what needs to be changed, then Brexiteers willing to give the benefit of the doubt and Remainers looking to cease on any 'bad news' (real or imagined) will all see what they already thought. By the time we get to the other end, life will have probably gotten back to normal and not many people convinced either way!
Top links Mr Viewcode.
aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/then-v1-flying-bomb-site-matley-near-hyde/
First leader of this country in 30 years to stand up to Europe and put Britain first. We might not be leaving if others had followed in her footsteps before now.
Failing to prepare is preparing to fail and that is exactly what May and Hammond did.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49173514
I don't see many in Boris' Cabinet like that. Gove, perhaps.
There isn't going to be some post-apocalyptic wasteland full of people wondering what went wrong.