Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

124»

Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:


    Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.

    I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.

    I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
    They can do what they want, who cares if as Yougov shows Boris leads Corbyn Labour 31% to 21% with the LDs on 20% the Tories win a majority regardless, even with the Brexit Party on 13/14%
    Never going to happen in a million years.

    An election will crystalise minds around binary choices. Tories will get closer to 40% and if Boris hasn't reneged on Oct 31 BXP will be lucky to get 10%.

    Whichever of LDs and Labour captures the zeitgeist of the election will squeeze the other.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    HYUFD said:

    North Korea fires multiple projectiles

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49173514

    Raab is on the case. Don't panic!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    viewcode said:

    You're cherry picking. I posted a range of numbers so that people could judge the trend. Since the mid-Eighties (bear in mind that 1980-01-02 is the end of the Seventies) the rough value of GBP/USD has been £1=$1.6, or around there. Sometimes it was more, sometimes it was less, but it was around there. The day after referendum day it slid to $1.35, then after May's conference speech it slid to $1.2, then it recovered to around $1.3 to $1.35, then when Parliament rejected the deal and May resigned it went to around $1.25 until Boris became PM, and now it's downwards again.

    If you like, we can go back to 1925 (£1=$4.86, gold standard) or 1965 (£1=$2.7?) or 1969 (£1=$2.4?). If we go further back, I'll have to start looking stuff up.

    It's often said that the UK never defaults, because it always devalues. The long-term trend for GBP is downwards, but year-to-year it is stable within a range, until something happens, then it slides, stabilize, then we go round again. Your contention that the pound is not falling is wrong. Whether this is important or good/bad is a different question, but yes it is falling.

    Which was my point.

    Except I didn't contend that the pound is not falling.

    I contender that given we have low inflation the pounds fall is good news, for as long as we keep inflation under control.

    I also contend that the pound is not falling that dramatically which is true. Despite the fact 3 years ago nobody seriously thought there would be No Deal, while now we are in a Mexican Standoff making it quite plausible, we now have an exchange rate almost identical to what it was 3 years ago.

    My main thought is that the pound varies within a range, but tends over the long term to fall especially on events. It hasn't fallen significantly relative to 3 years ago yet but probably will if there actually is No Deal. Which given we keep low inflation at the minute and a major structural deficit on exports v imports is probably no bad thing.
    Given the historical numbers, I would not use that description, although we have become inured to the circumstances. Things have been so low we've started thinking it's normal, but historically speaking $1=$1.2USD is genuinely very low. You point reveals that we have become acclimatized and that a weak GBP is now the new normal, hence your conviction that it is not a dramatic fall.

    Or, as I have said again and again, PB Has No Memory.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:


    Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.

    I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.

    I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
    They can do what they want, who cares if as Yougov shows Boris leads Corbyn Labour 31% to 21% with the LDs on 20% the Tories win a majority regardless, even with the Brexit Party on 13/14%
    With lucky timing, it might work for one election, at the cost of utterly destroying the party thereafter (and doing enormous damage to the country, which is rather more important).
    What sort of damage are we looking at?

    Will we see a massive change to eg per capita GDP? How will we measure that and how dramatic?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230


    Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.

    I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.

    I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
    IASEF... :)
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,701


    Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.

    I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.

    I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
    There will be no reason to get to Stage 3 because we are scrappy and adaptable and can succeed in or out of the EU. Problems will be faced, will be rolled into problems everyone has anyway. Benefits will be taken, but your side will take them for granted and refuse to view it as a benefit of Brexit.

    There isn't going to be some post-apocalyptic wasteland full of people wondering what went wrong.
    But people have been conditioned by the dead tree press to think 1p on fuel duty is the end of civilisation as we know it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835


    Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.

    I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.

    I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
    There will be no reason to get to Stage 3 because we are scrappy and adaptable and can succeed in or out of the EU. Problems will be faced, will be rolled into problems everyone has anyway. Benefits will be taken, but your side will take them for granted and refuse to view it as a benefit of Brexit.

    There isn't going to be some post-apocalyptic wasteland full of people wondering what went wrong.
    Is "there isn't going to be some post-apocalyptic wasteland" the new sunlit uplands?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Byronic is wrong. The country won't like national suffering.

    What might go down rather better with a lot of leave voters is if they see the difficulties and disruptions of Brexit being foisted primarily on the people who have been calling them wrong stupid old fat gammony poor racist fascists for three years. And if, at the same time, they see cheaper stuff through tariff reduction and increased wage inflation through reduced labour supply then they might well see Brexit as a jolly good show.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:


    Though don't underestimate just how dug in, polarised and stubborn the public [including ourselves] are.

    I bet you in the immediate weeks after a No Deal Brexit absolutely nobody will change their mind. You will be banging on about how it is all bad, I will be saying its OK, Big G will be bemoaning what could have been if May's deal was only ratified and williamglenn will be boasting that the UK will be in the Euro before long.

    I tend to agree. No-one will change their minds if, like you, they were committed to One True Faith. What we will see is firstly in Stage 1 a denial that there is any problem attributable to the crash-out, and then in Stage 2 a reluctant admission that there are some transitional problems but they are only temporary and not too serious, and then in Stage 3, when it becomes impossible to sustain that line, the True Believers will switch into the 'wrong kind of no deal' position, blaming Boris, the EU, the Civil Service, the BBC, Phil Hammond, David Cameron, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, excepting only themselves, natch.
    They can do what they want, who cares if as Yougov shows Boris leads Corbyn Labour 31% to 21% with the LDs on 20% the Tories win a majority regardless, even with the Brexit Party on 13/14%
    With lucky timing, it might work for one election, at the cost of utterly destroying the party thereafter (and doing enormous damage to the country, which is rather more important).
    If the Tories win one more general election they will win a historic 4th term, a feat achieved only once by the party in the last 100 years, who cares if they lose some elections after that having beaten Corbyn and delivered Brexit. Boris will go down in history as the man who delivered Brexit and the will of the people.

    It was of course the Tory wets who failed under Heath to reform the economy and did nothing but whinge against Thatcher when she did do so with some even voting SDP, many of the Tory Remainers who failed to deliver Brexit under May are now similarly changing against Boris when he is actually ready to deliver Brexit
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820


    What sort of damage are we looking at?

    Will we see a massive change to eg per capita GDP? How will we measure that and how dramatic?

    It's extremely hard to predict the overall GDP effect. Traditional economic models aren't much use for this kind of disruption. I'd expect something in the ballpark of the 2008/9 crash, but that's only a guesstimate.

    But that isn't the measure. It won't be evenly spread. Just as in the 1980s, there will be high-profile pockets of severe damage, which are about real lives very badly hit. Naturally the media narrative will focus on those, and rightly so.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    You're cherry picking. I posted a range of numbers so that people could judge the trend. Since the mid-Eighties (bear in mind that 1980-01-02 is the end of the Seventies) the rough value of GBP/USD has been £1=$1.6, or around there. Sometimes it was more, sometimes it was less, but it was around there. The day after referendum day it slid to $1.35, then after May's conference speech it slid to $1.2, then it recovered to around $1.3 to $1.35, then when Parliament rejected the deal and May resigned it went to around $1.25 until Boris became PM, and now it's downwards again.

    If you like, we can go back to 1925 (£1=$4.86, gold standard) or 1965 (£1=$2.7?) or 1969 (£1=$2.4?). If we go further back, I'll have to start looking stuff up.

    It's often said that the UK never defaults, because it always devalues. The long-term trend for GBP is downwards, but year-to-year it is stable within a range, until something happens, then it slides, stabilize, then we go round again. Your contention that the pound is not falling is wrong. Whether this is important or good/bad is a different question, but yes it is falling.

    Which was my point.

    Except I didn't contend that the pound is not falling.

    I contender that given we have low inflation the pounds fall is good news, for as long as we keep inflation under control.

    I also contend that the pound is not falling that dramatically which is true. Despite the fact 3 years ago nobody seriously thought there would be No Deal, while now we are in a Mexican Standoff making it quite plausible, we now have an exchange rate almost identical to what it was 3 years ago.

    My main thought is that the pound varies within a range, but tends over the long term to fall especially on events. It hasn't fallen significantly relative to 3 years ago yet but probably will if there actually is No Deal. Which given we keep low inflation at the minute and a major structural deficit on exports v imports is probably no bad thing.
    Given the historical numbers, I would not use that description, although we have become inured to the circumstances. Things have been so low we've started thinking it's normal, but historically speaking $1=$1.2USD is genuinely very low. You point reveals that we have become acclimatized and that a weak GBP is now the new normal, hence your conviction that it is not a dramatic fall.

    Or, as I have said again and again, PB Has No Memory.
    Yes I would say £1 = £1.25-$1.30 is the new normal. It has been for 3 years now.

    I would also say it is less dramatic than other changes and you have rather cherrypicked your data. Life did not begin in 2010, if you extend back just 2 more years that shows an actual dramatic fall. Post the 1/1/07, 1/1/08 and 1/1/09 figures. 1/1/05 would be interesting too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Drutt said:

    Byronic is wrong. The country won't like national suffering.

    What might go down rather better with a lot of leave voters is if they see the difficulties and disruptions of Brexit being foisted primarily on the people who have been calling them wrong stupid old fat gammony poor racist fascists for three years. And if, at the same time, they see cheaper stuff through tariff reduction and increased wage inflation through reduced labour supply then they might well see Brexit as a jolly good show.

    You are expecting tariff reductions?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826


    What sort of damage are we looking at?

    Will we see a massive change to eg per capita GDP? How will we measure that and how dramatic?

    It's extremely hard to predict the overall GDP effect. Traditional economic models aren't much use for this kind of disruption. I'd expect something in the ballpark of the 2008/9 crash, but that's only a guesstimate.

    But that isn't the measure. It won't be evenly spread. Just as in the 1980s, there will be high-profile pockets of severe damage, which are about real lives very badly hit. Naturally the media narrative will focus on those, and rightly so.
    So is it your contention that the 80s were wrong?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    Drutt said:

    Byronic is wrong. The country won't like national suffering.

    What might go down rather better with a lot of leave voters is if they see the difficulties and disruptions of Brexit being foisted primarily on the people who have been calling them wrong stupid old fat gammony poor racist fascists for three years. And if, at the same time, they see cheaper stuff through tariff reduction and increased wage inflation through reduced labour supply then they might well see Brexit as a jolly good show.

    You are expecting tariff reductions?
    Yes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    Drutt said:

    Byronic is wrong. The country won't like national suffering.

    What might go down rather better with a lot of leave voters is if they see the difficulties and disruptions of Brexit being foisted primarily on the people who have been calling them wrong stupid old fat gammony poor racist fascists for three years. And if, at the same time, they see cheaper stuff through tariff reduction and increased wage inflation through reduced labour supply then they might well see Brexit as a jolly good show.

    You are expecting tariff reductions?
    Yes.
    Forgive me, but you're expecting reduced tariffs on imports. Are you expecting reduced tariffs on exports too?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories win one more general election they will win a historic 4th term, a feat achieved only once by the party in the last 100 years, who cares if they lose some elections after that having beaten Corbyn and delivered Brexit. Boris will go down in history as the man who delivered Brexit and the will of the people.

    It was of course the Tory wets who failed under Heath to reform the economy and did nothing but whinge against Thatcher when she did do so with some even voting SDP, many of the Tory Remainers who failed to deliver Brexit under May are now similarly changing against Boris when he is actually ready to deliver Brexit

    I lived through the Heath and Thatcher years, I voted for Maggie in every election she stood in. I am a great admirer of her - she dealt vigorously with a real, seemingly intractable problem, and rescued the country from the utter mess it was in - the 'sick man of Europe', and an economic basket-case.

    Comparing Boris with her is just completely absurd. Before the referendum the UK was one of the leading economies in Europe and the world. Boris is going to take us back to the bottom of the league, and all because of an obsession with an arbitrary date selected (with delicious irony) by the French.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    Yes I would say £1 = £1.25-$1.30 is the new normal. It has been for 3 years now.

    I would also say it is less dramatic than other changes and you have rather cherrypicked your data. Life did not begin in 2010, if you extend back just 2 more years that shows an actual dramatic fall. Post the 1/1/07, 1/1/08 and 1/1/09 figures. 1/1/05 would be interesting too.

    I extended it back to January 1980. The whole point of giving a range was to *prevent* cherrypicking.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820


    What sort of damage are we looking at?

    Will we see a massive change to eg per capita GDP? How will we measure that and how dramatic?

    It's extremely hard to predict the overall GDP effect. Traditional economic models aren't much use for this kind of disruption. I'd expect something in the ballpark of the 2008/9 crash, but that's only a guesstimate.

    But that isn't the measure. It won't be evenly spread. Just as in the 1980s, there will be high-profile pockets of severe damage, which are about real lives very badly hit. Naturally the media narrative will focus on those, and rightly so.
    So is it your contention that the 80s were wrong?
    Of course not.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Drutt said:

    Byronic is wrong. The country won't like national suffering.

    What might go down rather better with a lot of leave voters is if they see the difficulties and disruptions of Brexit being foisted primarily on the people who have been calling them wrong stupid old fat gammony poor racist fascists for three years. And if, at the same time, they see cheaper stuff through tariff reduction and increased wage inflation through reduced labour supply then they might well see Brexit as a jolly good show.

    You are expecting tariff reductions?
    Yes.
    Forgive me, but you're expecting reduced tariffs on imports. Are you expecting reduced tariffs on exports too?
    Not initially, but I expect a fall in sterling which will more than compensate on average for any temporary increase in tariffs.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826


    What sort of damage are we looking at?

    Will we see a massive change to eg per capita GDP? How will we measure that and how dramatic?

    It's extremely hard to predict the overall GDP effect. Traditional economic models aren't much use for this kind of disruption. I'd expect something in the ballpark of the 2008/9 crash, but that's only a guesstimate.

    But that isn't the measure. It won't be evenly spread. Just as in the 1980s, there will be high-profile pockets of severe damage, which are about real lives very badly hit. Naturally the media narrative will focus on those, and rightly so.
    So is it your contention that the 80s were wrong?
    Of course not.
    Well I agree with that. Cuts both ways.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Drutt said:

    Byronic is wrong. The country won't like national suffering.

    What might go down rather better with a lot of leave voters is if they see the difficulties and disruptions of Brexit being foisted primarily on the people who have been calling them wrong stupid old fat gammony poor racist fascists for three years. And if, at the same time, they see cheaper stuff through tariff reduction and increased wage inflation through reduced labour supply then they might well see Brexit as a jolly good show.

    You are expecting tariff reductions?
    Yes.
    Forgive me, but you're expecting reduced tariffs on imports. Are you expecting reduced tariffs on exports too?
    Not initially, but I expect a fall in sterling which will more than compensate on average for any temporary increase in tariffs.
    I see. But won't a fall in Sterling offset the impact of any reduction in import tariffs also?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    Yes I would say £1 = £1.25-$1.30 is the new normal. It has been for 3 years now.

    I would also say it is less dramatic than other changes and you have rather cherrypicked your data. Life did not begin in 2010, if you extend back just 2 more years that shows an actual dramatic fall. Post the 1/1/07, 1/1/08 and 1/1/09 figures. 1/1/05 would be interesting too.

    I extended it back to January 1980. The whole point of giving a range was to *prevent* cherrypicking.
    No you didn't, you extended it by round decade to 1980. That cuts out a LOT of variance within those decades.

    So I'm not accused of cherrypicking, what was 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007. 2008 and 2009?

    Including those years shows a very, very different picture to the years you cherrypicked that show a fake consistency around $1.60
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories win one more general election they will win a historic 4th term, a feat achieved only once by the party in the last 100 years, who cares if they lose some elections after that having beaten Corbyn and delivered Brexit. Boris will go down in history as the man who delivered Brexit and the will of the people.

    It was of course the Tory wets who failed under Heath to reform the economy and did nothing but whinge against Thatcher when she did do so with some even voting SDP, many of the Tory Remainers who failed to deliver Brexit under May are now similarly changing against Boris when he is actually ready to deliver Brexit

    I lived through the Heath and Thatcher years, I voted for Maggie in every election she stood in. I am a great admirer of her - she dealt vigorously with a real, seemingly intractable problem, and rescued the country from the utter mess it was in - the 'sick man of Europe', and an economic basket-case.

    Comparing Boris with her is just completely absurd. Before the referendum the UK was one of the leading economies in Europe and the world. Boris is going to take us back to the bottom of the league, and all because of an obsession with an arbitrary date selected (with delicious irony) by the French.
    We are not going to the bottom of the league. Though the EU has rather dragged us there at the minute, every single developed English speaking nation in the globe has done than the UK since 1993 when the EU came to exist. I can not think of a single English speaking nation the UK has done better than in that period of over 26 years which is a damning indictment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories win one more general election they will win a historic 4th term, a feat achieved only once by the party in the last 100 years, who cares if they lose some elections after that having beaten Corbyn and delivered Brexit. Boris will go down in history as the man who delivered Brexit and the will of the people.

    It was of course the Tory wets who failed under Heath to reform the economy and did nothing but whinge against Thatcher when she did do so with some even voting SDP, many of the Tory Remainers who failed to deliver Brexit under May are now similarly changing against Boris when he is actually ready to deliver Brexit

    I lived through the Heath and Thatcher years, I voted for Maggie in every election she stood in. I am a great admirer of her - she dealt vigorously with a real, seemingly intractable problem, and rescued the country from the utter mess it was in - the 'sick man of Europe', and an economic basket-case.

    Comparing Boris with her is just completely absurd. Before the referendum the UK was one of the leading economies in Europe and the world. Boris is going to take us back to the bottom of the league, and all because of an obsession with an arbitrary date selected (with delicious irony) by the French.
    We are not going to the bottom of the league. Though the EU has rather dragged us there at the minute, every single developed English speaking nation in the globe has done than the UK since 1993 when the EU came to exist. I can not think of a single English speaking nation the UK has done better than in that period of over 26 years which is a damning indictment.
    Presumably you’re not counting Ireland?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Drutt said:

    Byronic is wrong. The country won't like national suffering.

    What might go down rather better with a lot of leave voters is if they see the difficulties and disruptions of Brexit being foisted primarily on the people who have been calling them wrong stupid old fat gammony poor racist fascists for three years. And if, at the same time, they see cheaper stuff through tariff reduction and increased wage inflation through reduced labour supply then they might well see Brexit as a jolly good show.

    You are expecting tariff reductions?
    Yes.
    Forgive me, but you're expecting reduced tariffs on imports. Are you expecting reduced tariffs on exports too?
    Not initially, but I expect a fall in sterling which will more than compensate on average for any temporary increase in tariffs.
    I see. But won't a fall in Sterling offset the impact of any reduction in import tariffs also?
    Yes.

    So the UK consumer will be as well off as we were beforehand, not much real change either way.

    UK exporters will be better off, especially exporters to non-EU nations that purely get the benefit of our currency being more competitive but no extra tariffs or barriers. Even more for any new deals we sign.

    The big loser will be EU firms that make their profits exporting to the UK since they will be hammered repeatedly - potentially new tariffs, potentially new barriers and certainly a worse exchange rate for them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories win one more general election they will win a historic 4th term, a feat achieved only once by the party in the last 100 years, who cares if they lose some elections after that having beaten Corbyn and delivered Brexit. Boris will go down in history as the man who delivered Brexit and the will of the people.

    It was of course the Tory wets who failed under Heath to reform the economy and did nothing but whinge against Thatcher when she did do so with some even voting SDP, many of the Tory Remainers who failed to deliver Brexit under May are now similarly changing against Boris when he is actually ready to deliver Brexit

    I lived through the Heath and Thatcher years, I voted for Maggie in every election she stood in. I am a great admirer of her - she dealt vigorously with a real, seemingly intractable problem, and rescued the country from the utter mess it was in - the 'sick man of Europe', and an economic basket-case.

    Comparing Boris with her is just completely absurd. Before the referendum the UK was one of the leading economies in Europe and the world. Boris is going to take us back to the bottom of the league, and all because of an obsession with an arbitrary date selected (with delicious irony) by the French.
    We are not going to the bottom of the league. Though the EU has rather dragged us there at the minute, every single developed English speaking nation in the globe has done than the UK since 1993 when the EU came to exist. I can not think of a single English speaking nation the UK has done better than in that period of over 26 years which is a damning indictment.
    Presumably you’re not counting Ireland?
    I don't think we've done better than Ireland have we? I think my comparison extends to Ireland. Though certainly I think Ireland due to being trapped in the Euro has most to lose from a No Deal Brexit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Drutt said:

    Byronic is wrong. The country won't like national suffering.

    What might go down rather better with a lot of leave voters is if they see the difficulties and disruptions of Brexit being foisted primarily on the people who have been calling them wrong stupid old fat gammony poor racist fascists for three years. And if, at the same time, they see cheaper stuff through tariff reduction and increased wage inflation through reduced labour supply then they might well see Brexit as a jolly good show.

    You are expecting tariff reductions?
    Yes.
    Forgive me, but you're expecting reduced tariffs on imports. Are you expecting reduced tariffs on exports too?
    Not initially, but I expect a fall in sterling which will more than compensate on average for any temporary increase in tariffs.
    I see. But won't a fall in Sterling offset the impact of any reduction in import tariffs also?
    Yes.

    So the UK consumer will be as well off as we were beforehand, not much real change either way.

    UK exporters will be better off, especially exporters to non-EU nations that purely get the benefit of our currency being more competitive but no extra tariffs or barriers. Even more for any new deals we sign.

    The big loser will be EU firms that make their profits exporting to the UK since they will be hammered repeatedly - potentially new tariffs, potentially new barriers and certainly a worse exchange rate for them.
    So, you believe we hold all the cards then?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Drutt said:

    Byronic is wrong. The country won't like national suffering.

    What might go down rather better with a lot of leave voters is if they see the difficulties and disruptions of Brexit being foisted primarily on the people who have been calling them wrong stupid old fat gammony poor racist fascists for three years. And if, at the same time, they see cheaper stuff through tariff reduction and increased wage inflation through reduced labour supply then they might well see Brexit as a jolly good show.

    You are expecting tariff reductions?
    Yes.
    Forgive me, but you're expecting reduced tariffs on imports. Are you expecting reduced tariffs on exports too?
    Not initially, but I expect a fall in sterling which will more than compensate on average for any temporary increase in tariffs.
    I see. But won't a fall in Sterling offset the impact of any reduction in import tariffs also?
    Yes.

    So the UK consumer will be as well off as we were beforehand, not much real change either way.

    UK exporters will be better off, especially exporters to non-EU nations that purely get the benefit of our currency being more competitive but no extra tariffs or barriers. Even more for any new deals we sign.

    The big loser will be EU firms that make their profits exporting to the UK since they will be hammered repeatedly - potentially new tariffs, potentially new barriers and certainly a worse exchange rate for them.
    So, you believe we hold all the cards then?
    No.

    But I believe we can choose which card gets played.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories win one more general election they will win a historic 4th term, a feat achieved only once by the party in the last 100 years, who cares if they lose some elections after that having beaten Corbyn and delivered Brexit. Boris will go down in history as the man who delivered Brexit and the will of the people.

    It was of course the Tory wets who failed under Heath to reform the economy and did nothing but whinge against Thatcher when she did do so with some even voting SDP, many of the Tory Remainers who failed to deliver Brexit under May are now similarly changing against Boris when he is actually ready to deliver Brexit

    I lived through the Heath and Thatcher years, I voted for Maggie in every election she stood in. I am a great admirer of her - she dealt vigorously with a real, seemingly intractable problem, and rescued the country from the utter mess it was in - the 'sick man of Europe', and an economic basket-case.

    Comparing Boris with her is just completely absurd. Before the referendum the UK was one of the leading economies in Europe and the world. Boris is going to take us back to the bottom of the league, and all because of an obsession with an arbitrary date selected (with delicious irony) by the French.
    We are not going to the bottom of the league. Though the EU has rather dragged us there at the minute, every single developed English speaking nation in the globe has done than the UK since 1993 when the EU came to exist. I can not think of a single English speaking nation the UK has done better than in that period of over 26 years which is a damning indictment.
    Presumably you’re not counting Ireland?
    I don't think we've done better than Ireland have we? I think my comparison extends to Ireland. Though certainly I think Ireland due to being trapped in the Euro has most to lose from a No Deal Brexit.
    Sorry, I meant that Ireland is a counter-example to the idea that being in the EU dragged down its English-speaking member.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2019

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories win one more general election they will win a historic 4th term, a feat achieved only once by the party in the last 100 years, who cares if they lose some elections after that having beaten Corbyn and delivered Brexit. Boris will go down in history as the man who delivered Brexit and the will of the people.

    It was of course the Tory wets who failed under Heath to reform the economy and did nothing but whinge against Thatcher when she did do so with some even voting SDP, many of the Tory Remainers who failed to deliver Brexit under May are now similarly changing against Boris when he is actually ready to deliver Brexit

    I lived through the Heath and Thatcher years, I voted for Maggie in every election she stood in. I am a great admirer of her - she dealt vigorously with a real, seemingly intractable problem, and rescued the country from the utter mess it was in - the 'sick man of Europe', and an economic basket-case.

    Comparing Boris with her is just completely absurd. Before the referendum the UK was one of the leading economies in Europe and the world. Boris is going to take us back to the bottom of the league, and all because of an obsession with an arbitrary date selected (with delicious irony) by the French.
    It was union dominance and militancy, high taxes and high inflation and nationalised industries that kept us at the bottom of the league amongst developed nations.

    Boris' vision of a low tax, global trading Britain outside of the EU will not put us at the bottom of the league again, Corbyn's socialism might do though
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    Byronic said:

    Anecdote ALARM

    I have been pootling around the provinces for a week.

    I have returned to civilisation with two conclusions.

    1. People are still talking about politics WAY more than usual. And it's not just "oh god, groan, Brexit" - people are genuinely engaged and interested, in a way they never were before. This is good?

    2. Boris is popular. There is a feeling that he is the man, for all his many faults, who will "get Brexit done". I think this is delusional, but there we are. He is definitely enjoying a honeymoon.

    An interesting anecdotal comment from someone I’ve never heard talk politics before. Hard working, family, lots of driving around for work - blue collar role living north of London

    “I like Boris. He makes me laugh”

    That was it. But it made me think that he will get a lot more support than people who think about the detail of politics realise.
    I get that. But that is a double edged sword. TM elicited a fair bit of sympathy when it went tits up for her. Her qualities of detail, diligence and hard work were noted. She did her best, but it wasn't good enough.
    If the best you start with is makes you laugh, then that can easily turn to laughing at rather than with.
    True. My point was simply that most people vote for very different reason than us. We may like to stir the entrails of polls and policies but most people don’t. Optimism is a powerful motivator.
    It depends on to what extent is perceived as being fantasy - and not expressed in good faith.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories win one more general election they will win a historic 4th term, a feat achieved only once by the party in the last 100 years, who cares if they lose some elections after that having beaten Corbyn and delivered Brexit. Boris will go down in history as the man who delivered Brexit and the will of the people.

    It was of course the Tory wets who failed under Heath to reform the economy and did nothing but whinge against Thatcher when she did do so with some even voting SDP, many of the Tory Remainers who failed to deliver Brexit under May are now similarly changing against Boris when he is actually ready to deliver Brexit

    I lived through the Heath and Thatcher years, I voted for Maggie in every election she stood in. I am a great admirer of her - she dealt vigorously with a real, seemingly intractable problem, and rescued the country from the utter mess it was in - the 'sick man of Europe', and an economic basket-case.

    Comparing Boris with her is just completely absurd. Before the referendum the UK was one of the leading economies in Europe and the world. Boris is going to take us back to the bottom of the league, and all because of an obsession with an arbitrary date selected (with delicious irony) by the French.
    We are not going to the bottom of the league. Though the EU has rather dragged us there at the minute, every single developed English speaking nation in the globe has done than the UK since 1993 when the EU came to exist. I can not think of a single English speaking nation the UK has done better than in that period of over 26 years which is a damning indictment.
    Presumably you’re not counting Ireland?
    I don't think we've done better than Ireland have we? I think my comparison extends to Ireland. Though certainly I think Ireland due to being trapped in the Euro has most to lose from a No Deal Brexit.
    Sorry, I meant that Ireland is a counter-example to the idea that being in the EU dragged down its English-speaking member.
    Ireland, like Luxembourg, is an exception, a small country that's done well as a tax haven for large multinationals.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories win one more general election they will win a historic 4th term, a feat achieved only once by the party in the last 100 years, who cares if they lose some elections after that having beaten Corbyn and delivered Brexit. Boris will go down in history as the man who delivered Brexit and the will of the people.

    It was of course the Tory wets who failed under Heath to reform the economy and did nothing but whinge against Thatcher when she did do so with some even voting SDP, many of the Tory Remainers who failed to deliver Brexit under May are now similarly changing against Boris when he is actually ready to deliver Brexit

    I lived through the Heath and Thatcher years, I voted for Maggie in every election she stood in. I am a great admirer of her - she dealt vigorously with a real, seemingly intractable problem, and rescued the country from the utter mess it was in - the 'sick man of Europe', and an economic basket-case.

    Comparing Boris with her is just completely absurd. Before the referendum the UK was one of the leading economies in Europe and the world. Boris is going to take us back to the bottom of the league, and all because of an obsession with an arbitrary date selected (with delicious irony) by the French.
    It was union dominance and militancy, high taxes and high inflation and nationalised industries that kept us at the bottom of the league amongst developed nations.

    Boris' vision of a low tax, global trading Britain outside of the EU will not put us at the bottom of the league again, Corbyn's socialism might do though
    100% agreed.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    viewcode said:

    Yes I would say £1 = £1.25-$1.30 is the new normal. It has been for 3 years now.

    I would also say it is less dramatic than other changes and you have rather cherrypicked your data. Life did not begin in 2010, if you extend back just 2 more years that shows an actual dramatic fall. Post the 1/1/07, 1/1/08 and 1/1/09 figures. 1/1/05 would be interesting too.

    I extended it back to January 1980. The whole point of giving a range was to *prevent* cherrypicking.
    No you didn't, you extended it by round decade to 1980. That cuts out a LOT of variance within those decades.

    So I'm not accused of cherrypicking, what was 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007. 2008 and 2009?

    Including those years shows a very, very different picture to the years you cherrypicked that show a fake consistency around $1.60
    You are resorting to unwarranted abuse and you're implying malicious intent that was not present. I neither cherrypicked nor misrepresented the data. If I posted every number for every year since 1980 I would have posted 39 years and 39 numbers plus the three for today. The post would have been around twice its length and unwieldy. If you like you can look all 39 numbers up, then supply it and the sources, but the results would be too long to read. And then no doubt somebody would come round and say "what about the months, eh!?" and we'd go round again.

    Or conversely, you could just look up the word "sample".





  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Hackers can bypass £30 limit on Visa contactless cards, study finds
    Design flaws discovered in Visa's payments system for contactless cards could allow criminals to steal hundreds in a single tap."

    https://news.sky.com/story/hackers-can-bypass-30-limit-on-visa-contactless-cards-study-finds-11773243
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Yes I would say £1 = £1.25-$1.30 is the new normal. It has been for 3 years now.

    I would also say it is less dramatic than other changes and you have rather cherrypicked your data. Life did not begin in 2010, if you extend back just 2 more years that shows an actual dramatic fall. Post the 1/1/07, 1/1/08 and 1/1/09 figures. 1/1/05 would be interesting too.

    I extended it back to January 1980. The whole point of giving a range was to *prevent* cherrypicking.
    No you didn't, you extended it by round decade to 1980. That cuts out a LOT of variance within those decades.

    So I'm not accused of cherrypicking, what was 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007. 2008 and 2009?

    Including those years shows a very, very different picture to the years you cherrypicked that show a fake consistency around $1.60
    You are resorting to unwarranted abuse and you're implying malicious intent that was not present. I neither cherrypicked nor misrepresented the data. If I posted every number for every year since 1980 I would have posted 39 years and 39 numbers plus the three for today. The post would have been around twice its length and unwieldy. If you like you can look all 39 numbers up, then supply it and the sources, but the results would be too long to read. And then no doubt somebody would come round and say "what about the months, eh!?" and we'd go round again.

    Or conversely, you could just look up the word "sample".
    I'm sorry if I upset you, that was not my intention, but you were the one who used the word cherrypicking first and starting the data series in 2010 and dropping off the decade between 2000 and 2010 masks a lot of variability. Whether that was intentional or not.

    2001-01-02 1.4956
    2002-01-02 1.4463
    2003-01-02 1.5977
    2004-01-02 1.7886
    2005-01-03 1.8833
    2006-01-03 1.7392
    2007-01-02 1.9728
    2008-01-02 1.9793
    2009-01-02 1.4502

    For most of the noughties sterling was close to $2. A more than 50 cent fall within a single year was a collapse. A roughly 20 cent fall in the decade since is rather small in comparison.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AndyJS said:

    "Hackers can bypass £30 limit on Visa contactless cards, study finds
    Design flaws discovered in Visa's payments system for contactless cards could allow criminals to steal hundreds in a single tap."

    https://news.sky.com/story/hackers-can-bypass-30-limit-on-visa-contactless-cards-study-finds-11773243

    The limit is rather moot anyway since there's nothing preventing you tapping 5 times in a row.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Anyone got a live stream for the Dem debate? CNN is giving me "not available in your region".
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    Gah, nothing on youtube, CNN must be squishing anyone who tries to share it. Fox may be scummy propagandists but they know how to do a live stream.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Gah, nothing on youtube, CNN must be squishing anyone who tries to share it. Fox may be scummy propagandists but they know how to do a live stream.

    http://123tvnow.com/watch/cnn/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Gah, nothing on youtube, CNN must be squishing anyone who tries to share it. Fox may be scummy propagandists but they know how to do a live stream.

    http://123tvnow.com/watch/cnn/
    Sweet, many thanks
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Gah, nothing on youtube, CNN must be squishing anyone who tries to share it. Fox may be scummy propagandists but they know how to do a live stream.

    http://123tvnow.com/watch/cnn/
    Sweet, many thanks
    it is a useful site
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Call for an investigation of Johnson for allegedly breaking the purdah rules by announcing extra funding for Wales two days before the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election pic.twitter.com/uFfqTsulXa

    — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 31, 2019
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited July 2019
    Somehow the voice of reason in the healthcare debate seems to be the woman who thinks bicycle lanes gives you cancer.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Anyone got a live stream for the Dem debate? CNN is giving me "not available in your region".

    https://youtu.be/vAGAkEluGCs
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013


    First leader of this country in 30 years to stand up to Europe and put Britain first. We might not be leaving if others had followed in her footsteps before now.

    "Britain First"

    Nice.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Every time Warren opens her mouth, it sounds as if she is talking at people not talking to them. Talking down rather than engaging with - a lot of the time.

    She is really hard to like. I can't see a reason to vote for her
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    New thread :)
This discussion has been closed.