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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage and Johnson slug it out to be the top party on Brexit i

SystemSystem Posts: 11,006
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage and Johnson slug it out to be the top party on Brexit in Brecon

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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Beto's pitch about how he's going to win Texas would work better if he'd won Texas
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Williamson is the only one addressing the dark psychic force
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    I love the way she played this, she spent the whole time being the most reasonable voice on the stage then suddenly when you're least expecting it she hits you with DARK PSYCHIC FORCE
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edmundintokyo said:

    I love the way she played this, she spent the whole time being the most reasonable voice on the stage then suddenly when you're least expecting it she hits you with DARK PSYCHIC FORCE

    More context needed... :o
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    RobD said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I love the way she played this, she spent the whole time being the most reasonable voice on the stage then suddenly when you're least expecting it she hits you with DARK PSYCHIC FORCE

    More context needed... :o
    Unfortunately you have to watch the whole debate from the beginning to fully appreciate the moment
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    edited July 2019
    Here's the clip but be aware that if you didn't watch the rest of the debate it may result in karmic imbalance:

    https://twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1156381292038098944
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    If Shadsy is still offering 500/1 on Williamson it might be worth it, she's the only person on that stage with any detectable mojo.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Warren seems to be going the full Trumpian moonbat on trade deals but I can't be sure because the stream went to shit as soon as Williamson called out the dark psychic force
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Bernie! Bernie! Bernie!

    https://twitter.com/r0bato/status/1156389552094949379

    Beth! Beth! Beth!

    https://twitter.com/ErickFernandez/status/1156374966692171777
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Non-sarcastically, I'm starting to be genuinely persuaded by Williamson's analysis of this race, maybe you can't beat Trump with wonkery and policy, and traditional slogans won't work if you allow yourself to get comprehensively out-memed.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    It's this:

    https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/1156397682061008902
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Sterling taking a battering and equity markets very jittery. This autumn could be shaking up for a political and economic maelstrom.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    StuartDickson said:

    Sterling taking a battering and equity markets very jittery. This autumn could be shaking up for a political and economic maelstrom.


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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1156399773336948736
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    On topic a weird outcome of the split on the right is Con and BXP competing to do the LibDems' Winning Here leaflets for them.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    I'm on Williamson at 900-1 or something
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    This is a tweet by Ian Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh South: “We are told a no deal Brexit will be fabulous for our country. Why then is the pound continuing to tank and our stock market plummeting? Markets don’t get these things wrong.”

    Is there anyone else who finds his last sentence stunning? I thought the whole point of the Labour movement was based on the fact that markets *do* get things wrong. The final scene of Animal Farm comes to mind, as Murray completes the transformation predicted by Orwell.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,357
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm on Williamson at 900-1 or something

    Sounds like my 1000/1 bet on Romney - it’s not going to pay out, but it’s nice to dream.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edmundintokyo said:

    It's this:

    https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/1156397682061008902

    An important difference is Williamson's cult will probably more resemble John Lennon and Trump's Charles Manson....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    StuartDickson said:

    This is a tweet by Ian Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh South: “We are told a no deal Brexit will be fabulous for our country. Why then is the pound continuing to tank and our stock market plummeting? Markets don’t get these things wrong.”

    Is there anyone else who finds his last sentence stunning? I thought the whole point of the Labour movement was based on the fact that markets *do* get things wrong. The final scene of Animal Farm comes to mind, as Murray completes the transformation predicted by Orwell.

    The stock market isn't plummeting though.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    TheJezziah said:


    An important difference is Williamson's cult will probably more resemble John Lennon and Trump's Charles Manson....

    Well, she kills people with the anti-vax stuff but yeah, and an election between rival cults respectively dedicated to light and darkness would be a weird and amazing thing.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Boris's headed notepaper is a bit rough, and Jacob Rees-Mogg might have anything to say about starting three paragraphs with the word so but he does use proper en-dashes, unlike Mr Farage.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    Boris bringing up Peterborough in this way is a bit odd because with the best will in the world it was the Brexit party that was close there not the Tories
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Boris's headed notepaper is a bit rough, and Jacob Rees-Mogg might have anything to say about starting three paragraphs with the word so but he does use proper en-dashes, unlike Mr Farage.

    He started a sentence with 'And'. The Moggster will have him sent to the Tower for that. And no double spaces either!
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    Pulpstar said:

    Boris bringing up Peterborough in this way is a bit odd because with the best will in the world it was the Brexit party that was close there not the Tories

    He's banking on voters having no knowledge of the actual Peterborough result. Which is a fair assumption.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,217
    edited July 2019
    edmundintokyo said:

    On topic a weird outcome of the split on the right is Con and BXP competing to do the LibDems' Winning Here leaflets for them.

    It’s interesting that everyone is threatening voters with a LibDem MP (there are worse fates in life). I guess for tactical voting to work they need to threaten people with something, and positing a Corbyn victory simply isn’t credible. Nevertheless two lots of extremists both threatening people with a moderate is certainly a new take on British politics.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    StuartDickson said:

    This is a tweet by Ian Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh South: “We are told a no deal Brexit will be fabulous for our country. Why then is the pound continuing to tank and our stock market plummeting? Markets don’t get these things wrong.”

    Is there anyone else who finds his last sentence stunning? I thought the whole point of the Labour movement was based on the fact that markets *do* get things wrong. The final scene of Animal Farm comes to mind, as Murray completes the transformation predicted by Orwell.

    See also Owen Jones not knowing if he's in favour of a strong currency:

    https://tinyurl.com/y6ouybuj
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    StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Pulpstar said:

    StuartDickson said:

    This is a tweet by Ian Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh South: “We are told a no deal Brexit will be fabulous for our country. Why then is the pound continuing to tank and our stock market plummeting? Markets don’t get these things wrong.”

    Is there anyone else who finds his last sentence stunning? I thought the whole point of the Labour movement was based on the fact that markets *do* get things wrong. The final scene of Animal Farm comes to mind, as Murray completes the transformation predicted by Orwell.

    The stock market isn't plummeting though.
    In sterling no. In dollars yes. Try thinking.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,217
    edited July 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Boris bringing up Peterborough in this way is a bit odd because with the best will in the world it was the Brexit party that was close there not the Tories

    It’s an odd letter all round, reading like it was written in a hurry. The sentences from “Did you hear..” about Peterborough are the nub of the letter, yet have been put in the part that many people won’t read, near the end. That should either have been how the letter began, or put below the signature as a p.s. (which many people will read first, after looking to see who the letter is from).

    And of course it doesn’t work, as you say. Trying a tactical squeeze using a factoid that is easily checkable as wrong is a *bold* move for the Tories. Presumably they are banking on the BXP not being able to move quick enough to respond. Also presumably, the reason the killer fact is buried within the letter arose from the author’s guilt that it isn’t correct in the first place.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    IanB2 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    On topic a weird outcome of the split on the right is Con and BXP competing to do the LibDems' Winning Here leaflets for them.

    It’s interesting that everyone is threatening voters with a LibDem MP (there are worse fates in life). I guess for tactical voting to work they need to threaten people with something, and positing a Corbyn victory simply isn’t credible. Nevertheless two lots of extremists both threatening people with a moderate is certainly a new take on British politics.
    There is an argument to be made there, if Brexit is the central issue, which lots of Lib Dems seem to believe it is, and the Lib Dems are on one extreme end of the Brexit debate (albeit only small differences with Labour now but previously less so) are they the moderates?

    With such a heavy concentration on Brexit from all 3 and all 3 having quite extreme positions on the subject it can be argued.

    Although being on the extreme end of an argument doesn't mean you are not right, abolition of slavery (or hundreds of more up to date examples) were the extreme end of a scale of thinking at one time.

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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,763
    tlg86 said:


    See also Owen Jones not knowing if he's in favour of a strong currency:
    https://tinyurl.com/y6ouybuj

    Urrghhh you made me go to Paul Staines website. I feel sick.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edmundintokyo said:

    TheJezziah said:


    An important difference is Williamson's cult will probably more resemble John Lennon and Trump's Charles Manson....

    Well, she kills people with the anti-vax stuff but yeah, and an election between rival cults respectively dedicated to light and darkness would be a weird and amazing thing.
    That is a pretty big minus, anti-vax stuff is incredibly stupid... still ignorance over ignorance and malice.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,357
    This is not good.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49170387
    "Over the last seven years the UK automotive industry was a real success story. We were averaging something like £2.5bn per annum", he says.
    "In the first six months of this year, it's not been half of that £2.5bn. It's £90m. It's been a massive drop off, because we have that fear of no-deal.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,320
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/30/politics/who-won-democratic-debate/index.html

    Just going by a few clips, Warren seems to me to have had the most memorable line, but the writer evidenly thinks Sanders out-liberaled her without fully embracing illegal immigration. They both seem to have zapped the moderates.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    If Corbynistas like Bernie Sanders there must be something wrong with him.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Good morning, everyone.

    Farage will win. He doesn't have to actually make any decisions and isn't responsible for anything.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On the Democratic nomination, Nate Silver has an interesting talking point yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1156196712215719942?s=21
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Gallowgate said:

    If Corbynistas like Bernie Sanders there must be something wrong with him.

    Sanders and Warren (a bit more so the former) get the love on my Corbyn supporting twitter, other candidates get little bits and pieces, Biden is probably the only Democrat front runner I can't remember being shared among them for good reasons.

    I think they just like left wing policies so they like Sanders and Warren TBH.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1156446087131123712?s=21
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    Some 47 per cent of men think Mr Johnson would make the best prime minister, compared with only 37 per cent of women.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1156334929527136257
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    I’m feeling confident about by Brecon and Radnorshire tip now.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,902
    Are there any constituencies where women significantly outnumber men though ? If not I don't see it as an issue, your vote is worth the same no matter your gender.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,267
    The main tip I pick up from reading here regularly is: lay Kamala Harris.

    However, I’ve yet to seriously dabble in this market.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1156447353957736448
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1156399773336948736

    Good article.
    Suggests that a falling pound has not moved exports because our labour costs are too high.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’m feeling confident about by Brecon and Radnorshire tip now.

    Which was?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Casino_Royale said:

    The main tip I pick up from reading here regularly is: lay Kamala Harris.

    However, I’ve yet to seriously dabble in this market.

    Kamala Harris is due to take part in tonight's debate.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1156451224490848257
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    F1: perusing the markets. Ladbrokes have added the market under each driver option. To be honest, that's kind of handy, although I suspect it'll annoy some people.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1156451627710263296
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,043
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1156451224490848257

    In which direction?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285

    NEW THREAD

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    A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 296
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Boris bringing up Peterborough in this way is a bit odd because with the best will in the world it was the Brexit party that was close there not the Tories

    It’s an odd letter all round, reading like it was written in a hurry. The sentences from “Did you hear..” about Peterborough are the nub of the letter, yet have been put in the part that many people won’t read, near the end. That should either have been how the letter began, or put below the signature as a p.s. (which many people will read first, after looking to see who the letter is from).

    And of course it doesn’t work, as you say. Trying a tactical squeeze using a factoid that is easily checkable as wrong is a *bold* move for the Tories. Presumably they are banking on the BXP not being able to move quick enough to respond. Also presumably, the reason the killer fact is buried within the letter arose from the author’s guilt that it isn’t correct in the first place.
    People who can write these letters well are few and far between, at least in the Tory party. However they do exist and I have seen what they produce.

    The letter is well targeted to those people who think the LDs are NICE Tories - the people who elected LDs in the South West all those years. I suspect it will be delivered beyond its target area and that will not be good.

    It would be interesting to see the LD equivalent. They tend to concentrate on Tories being the embodiment of all evil. The Tory leaflet assumes this will be the case and reacts to what it expects.

    By and large the Tory Party is now pretty good at avoiding unnecessary by-elections, don't select candidates who are going to die etc, and that is a good tactic. This is an unnecessary by-election and a gift to the LDs.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Gardenwalker said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1156399773336948736

    Good article.
    Suggests that a falling pound has not moved exports because our labour costs are too high.
    UK Exports:

    2013 £524bn
    2014 £520bn
    2015 £520bn
    2016 £557bn
    2017 £617bn
    2018 £634bn

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbh/mret
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,096
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Some 47 per cent of men think Mr Johnson would make the best prime minister, compared with only 37 per cent of women.

    Viva La Femme!

    And not for the first time.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 841
    Presume the Lib Dems have put out their personal letter from the candidate, used to be in blue, remember. Again a presumption but I suspect they have been constantly trying to squeeze the considerable Labour vote. Perhaps it will all balance out into a dead heat!!!!
This discussion has been closed.