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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the swing in tomorrow’s by-election is in line with today’s 10% CON lead YouGov poll then the Tories still lose the seat

There’s been a fair bit of speculation today following the latest YouGov/Times poll that all might not be lost for Tories in tomorrow’s by-election. Maybe but according to standard swing calculations BJohnson’s party needs more movement than this to fend off the yellow peril.

Read the full story here

El_Capitano

First like the Lib Dems.

dixiedean

First again. I keep doing this.
Edit: Or not.

Sean_F

Yes, the Lib Dems should still be favourites to win this.

dixiedean

It is not just the national weakness of Labour. They are a clear fourth in a four horse race. What incentive is there to vote for them here?

ydoethur

Sean_F said:

Yes, the Lib Dems should still be favourites to win this.

They should, but this is a seat that should never be taken for granted.

HYUFD

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

ydoethur

dixiedean said:

It is not just the national weakness of Labour. They are a clear fourth in a four horse race. What incentive is there to vote for them here?

Do you mean two horse race?

If Labour win this it really would be an upset.

AndyJS

Gus Fraser talking about The Ashes on Sky News.

The_Taxman

In 1991 Nigel Evans went down to a humiliating defeat in the Ribble Valley by-election caused by the elevation to the peerage of David Waddington. Evans went on to win the seat back in 1992 but defeats of Governing parties even in relatively safe seats do occur even after a change in PM.

I do think that if the Lib Dems do manage to gain B & R they might have the chance of holding onto it come a GE. Lib Dems in opposition have a ratchet effect on seats whereby their opposition purity enables an incumbent to hold on in seats that might otherwise be lost. This seems to be the pattern that emerges from Lib Dem gains off Tories and Labour alike. Until a sea change wrests it away or a popular incumbent steps down i.e. Alan Beith in the Berwick upon Tweed seat.

HYUFD

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

Pulpstar

If the Lib Dems take the seat by less than 5% the Tories must be favourites to recapture in a GE I think.

Zephyr

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

Yes, the Lib Dems should still be favourites to win this.

They should, but this is a seat that should never be taken for granted.

I agree with yd. the 10% opinion poll is national. constituency to constituency is very different. Key factors here, people voting for recall now backing the recalled candidate because what it could do to beloved brexit. Brexit always been clear majority in the constituency and here will be the first indication brexit party have utterly collapsed because why waste time on them now when you’ve got Boris? Libdems drop the national campaign slogan to even stand a chance of being listened to. The Tory candidate is local, the libdem a foreign alien, with all sorts bizarre outside values and customs. Boris bounce means every Tory will fly out of bed fired up to vote.

There. What do you think of my HY impersonation 😀

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Stereotomy

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1156628575161896960

El_Capitano

I’m going for 40-37 to the Lib Dems.

ydoethur

Zephyr said:

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

Yes, the Lib Dems should still be favourites to win this.

They should, but this is a seat that should never be taken for granted.

I agree with yd. the 10% opinion poll is national. constituency to constituency is very different. Key factors here, people voting for recall now backing the recalled candidate because what it could do to beloved brexit. Brexit always been clear majority in the constituency and here will be the first indication brexit party have utterly collapsed because why waste time on them now when you’ve got Boris? Libdems drop the national campaign slogan to even stand a chance of being listened to. The Tory candidate is local, the libdem a foreign alien, with all sorts bizarre outside values and customs. Boris bounce means every Tory will fly out of bed fired up to vote.

There. What do you think of my HY impersonation 😀

There is only one HYUFD.

Let us thank God for small mercies.

The_Taxman

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

Yes, but the swing from Labour to Tory is irrelevant if the Lib Dems gain B & R! There is no election in Labour/Tory marginals for the Tories to gain! The result in one seat should never be assumed to be replicated elsewhere either! At the "forthcoming election" the Tories will have to defend many seats from the LD or SNP, this means they can target far fewer seats that Labour currently marginally hold. Talk of snap GE's and taking scores of Labour seats is a nice fantasy but I think reality offers a different and more likely path.

ydoethur

El_Capitano said:

I’m going for 40-37 to the Lib Dems.

I think it will be closer. Could be 40-39 either way.

Or I could look a fool. But that's hardly the first time

Zephyr

ydoethur said:

Zephyr said:

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

Yes, the Lib Dems should still be favourites to win this.

They should, but this is a seat that should never be taken for granted.

I agree with yd. the 10% opinion poll is national. constituency to constituency is very different. Key factors here, people voting for recall now backing the recalled candidate because what it could do to beloved brexit. Brexit always been clear majority in the constituency and here will be the first indication brexit party have utterly collapsed because why waste time on them now when you’ve got Boris? Libdems drop the national campaign slogan to even stand a chance of being listened to. The Tory candidate is local, the libdem a foreign alien, with all sorts bizarre outside values and customs. Boris bounce means every Tory will fly out of bed fired up to vote.

There. What do you think of my HY impersonation 😀

There is only one HYUFD.

Let us thank God for small mercies.

Yep. Unspoofable.

I should have thrown in a few sub samples.

Yorkcity

dixiedean said:

It is not just the national weakness of Labour. They are a clear fourth in a four horse race. What incentive is there to vote for them here?

Agreed.
No incentive at all.

HYUFD

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

Yes, but the swing from Labour to Tory is irrelevant if the Lib Dems gain B & R! There is no election in Labour/Tory marginals for the Tories to gain! The result in one seat should never be assumed to be replicated elsewhere either! At the "forthcoming election" the Tories will have to defend many seats from the LD or SNP, this means they can target far fewer seats that Labour currently marginally hold. Talk of snap GE's and taking scores of Labour seats is a nice fantasy but I think reality offers a different and more likely path.

On the latest Yougov the Tories would gain 41 Labour seats, while only losing 13 seats to the LDs and at most about 10 to the SNP

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Nigelb

dixiedean said:

It is not just the national weakness of Labour. They are a clear fourth in a four horse race. What incentive is there to vote for them here?

What incentive is there to vote for them at all ?

Yorkcity

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

If you believe this result would replicate a general election campaign ?

chloe

It will take the gloss off all Johnson’s positivity if they fail to win.

HYUFD

Zephyr said:

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

Yes, the Lib Dems should still be favourites to win this.

They should, but this is a seat that should never be taken for granted.

I agree with yd. the 10% opinion poll is national. constituency to constituency is very different. Key factors here, people voting for recall now backing the recalled candidate because what it could do to beloved brexit. Brexit always been clear majority in the constituency and here will be the first indication brexit party have utterly collapsed because why waste time on them now when you’ve got Boris? Libdems drop the national campaign slogan to even stand a chance of being listened to. The Tory candidate is local, the libdem a foreign alien, with all sorts bizarre outside values and customs. Boris bounce means every Tory will fly out of bed fired up to vote.

There. What do you think of my HY impersonation 😀

I do not start a sentence without a capital letter

Nigelb

First past the post might no longer be the Tories’ great saviour.

Perhaps, but this is likely a fairly narrow window of opportunity for PR.

My only problem with the new Lib Dem leader is that she is not managing to get much media attention. In the current circumstances, that is a crime.

Casino_Royale

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

StuartDickson

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Compulsory reading for the Westminster Bubble. Never mind proroguing parliament, imagine if England had her democracy permanently set aside and she was ruled directly from, say, Paris, Edinburgh or Dublin?

“No-deal Brexit: What is direct rule?”

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49163906

Good Friday Agreement binned, a hard border and Direct Rule. How far does this have to go before Westminster realises it’s in a hole and needs to stop digging?

Madrid imposed direct rule on Catalonia when it tried to declare independence after an independence referendum was refused and direct rule is still in place, with Catalan nationalists in exile

Sounds almost as though you approve.

Do you plan to impose direct rule on Scotland and exile Scottish nationalists? Sounds right up the Tories’ street.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sergeant Sunil: All right, PB Tories, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, PB Tories, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sergeant Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sergeant Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: Lean and mean!
Sergeant Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! TSE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badassess! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!

AndyJS

Prediction: Brecon & Radnorshire.

LD 45%
Con 37%
Brexit 11%
Lab 5.5%
UKIP 1.2%
Loony 0.3%

Turnout: 62%

Recidivist

If I were Nigel Farage I'd be thinking that the best possible result was for the Lib Dems to narrowly win against a divided Brexit/Tory vote, which would have won in combination.

I'd come up with some stunt to get in the news tomorrow.

nichomar

2500 lib dem majority depending on turn out

AndyJS

Recidivist said:

If I were Nigel Farage I'd be thinking that the best possible result was for the Lib Dems to narrowly win against a divided Brexit/Tory vote, which would have won in combination.

I'd come up with some stunt to get in the news tomorrow.

I think Tory + BRX will be slightly higher than the LDs but will be short of 50%.

Gardenwalker

Nigelb said:

First past the post might no longer be the Tories’ great saviour.

Perhaps, but this is likely a fairly narrow window of opportunity for PR.

My only problem with the new Lib Dem leader is that she is not managing to get much media attention. In the current circumstances, that is a crime.

Swinson needs to be out there.
We are in an “undeclared election campaign”.

Boris has hidden away from the people in Edinburgh, Brecon, and Belfast. Swinson has an open goal here.

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

Lettuce not get hung up on such things.

More seriously, I warned you picking a Gog would play badly here...seems I was right.

Pulpstar

Stereotomy said:

https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1156628575161896960

Bernie Bernie !

JackW

I'm opting for a OMRLP GAIN at B&R beating TBP by 683 votes

LibDems, Con and Lab lose their deposits and Prime Minister Johnson invites the OMRLP to join in a formal election pact.

@Richard_Nabavi the new leader of the OMRLP declines the offer as he objects to a formal alliance with a minor party.

At the general election of 7th November the OMRLP gain 648 seats losing B&R to an Independent loony and Orkney & Shetland to the Viking National Party.

@TSE becomes Speaker of the House of Commons adorning the office with red shoes, a multi-coloured thong, powdered wig by "Smithson's Bespoke Hairpieces" and Versace silk shirt patterned with pineapple pizza motifs.

All is well in the world ....

Sunil_Prasannan

El_Capitano said:

First like the Lib Dems.

"The LibDems are not just empty. They are void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition!"
- Boris, 2003.

ydoethur

JackW said:

I'm opting for a OMRLP GAIN at B&R beating TBP by 683 votes

LibDems, Con and Lab lose their deposits and Prime Minister Johnson invites the OMRLP to join in a formal election pact.

@Richard_Nabavi the new leader of the OMRLP declines the offer as he objects to a formal alliance with a minor party.

At the general election of 7th November the OMRLP gain 648 seats losing B&R to an Independent loony and Orkney & Shetland to the Viking National Party.

@TSE becomes Speaker of the House of Commons adorning the office with red shoes, a multi-coloured thong, powdered wig by "Smithson's Bespoke Hairpieces" and Versace silk shirt patterned with pineapple pizza motifs.

All is well in the world ....

After three years, JackW's mighty ARRSE returns!

The_Taxman

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

Yes, but the swing from Labour to Tory is irrelevant if the Lib Dems gain B & R! There is no election in Labour/Tory marginals for the Tories to gain! The result in one seat should never be assumed to be replicated elsewhere either! At the "forthcoming election" the Tories will have to defend many seats from the LD or SNP, this means they can target far fewer seats that Labour currently marginally hold. Talk of snap GE's and taking scores of Labour seats is a nice fantasy but I think reality offers a different and more likely path.

On the latest Yougov the Tories would gain 41 Labour seats, while only losing 13 seats to the LDs and at most about 10 to the SNP

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

UNS is a difficult principle to invest much faith on in the current political environment. Usually a political party will do months of constituency polling before they take the plunge on a snap election or that is what I have been led to believe. Any GE now will be a massive gamble and given the new Government will not have instigated any tax giveaway that people will demonstrably feel in their pocket this autumn or any tangible change in public expenditure, an early GE could create an upset as big as anything we have seen since 1970.

PClipp

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

Casino_Royale

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

Lettuce not get hung up on such things.

More seriously, I warned you picking a Gog would play badly here...seems I was right.

They should have tried a carrot and stick approach.

AlastairMeeks

It would be a very impressive result if the Conservatives won.

anothernick

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

Yes, but the swing from Labour to Tory is irrelevant if the Lib Dems gain B & R! There is no election in Labour/Tory marginals for the Tories to gain! The result in one seat should never be assumed to be replicated elsewhere either! At the "forthcoming election" the Tories will have to defend many seats from the LD or SNP, this means they can target far fewer seats that Labour currently marginally hold. Talk of snap GE's and taking scores of Labour seats is a nice fantasy but I think reality offers a different and more likely path.

On the latest Yougov the Tories would gain 41 Labour seats, while only losing 13 seats to the LDs and at most about 10 to the SNP

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

UNS is a difficult principle to invest much faith on in the current political environment. Usually a political party will do months of constituency polling before they take the plunge on a snap election or that is what I have been led to believe. Any GE now will be a massive gamble and given the new Government will not have instigated any tax giveaway that people will demonstrably feel in their pocket this autumn or any tangible change in public expenditure, an early GE could create an upset as big as anything we have seen since 1970.

And leaving aside the current political meltdown, the history of snap elections is not encouraging for governments. 2017, 1974, 1970 …..

And the Tories would either have to say they were seeking a mandate for no deal, which would lose them their remain supporters, or that they believed the EU would offer a better deal, which is scarcely credible and would lead to accusations of imminent betrayal from BXP etc and might well be ruled out publicly by the EU during the campaign.

Casino_Royale

Great tip of TSE on Brecon to back the Tories at 26s. I’ve basically been able to lock in an all-green free bet on them.

Not bothering to level up for a few quid (by-elections are unpredictable) so a free £100 if they win and I lose nothing if they don’t.

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

Lettuce not get hung up on such things.

More seriously, I warned you picking a Gog would play badly here...seems I was right.

They should have tried a carrot and stick approach.

Instead they gingered things up.

ydoethur

AlastairMeeks said:

It would be a very impressive result if the Conservatives won.

Unless they or for that matter the Liberal Democrats win by a huge margin, nobody should read too much into this.

The_Taxman

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

Byronic

Idly browsing away the rest of my dwindling life, this afternoon, I unearthed this Total Gem from Polly Tuscany

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/27/tories-petrified-jeremy-corbyn-rightwing-press-labour-party-conference

Glorious sentences abound. Choose your favourite.

"After his conference speech, the Mail is among those warning that the Labour leader is crushing a stale, fatigued Tory party"

"Corbynism is shifting the ground beneath the Tories’ feet and they sound knee-knocking scared"

"Labour will have a clear run whenever the next election comes."

Etc. Etc

Magnificent.

IanB2

And the £ falls back again

ydoethur

Byronic said:

Idly browsing away the rest of my dwindling life, this afternoon, I unearthed this Total Gem from Polly Tuscany

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/27/tories-petrified-jeremy-corbyn-rightwing-press-labour-party-conference

Glorious sentences abound. Choose your favourite.

"After his conference speech, the Mail is among those warning that the Labour leader is crushing a stale, fatigued Tory party"

"Corbynism is shifting the ground beneath the Tories’ feet and they sound knee-knocking scared"

"Labour will have a clear run whenever the next election comes."

Etc. Etc

Magnificent.

Whenever I think of Her Pollyness, I always think of this:

https://mirror.uncyc.org/wiki/Polly_Toynbee

Well worth a read.

Good night.

IanB2

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

Yes, but the swing from Labour to Tory is irrelevant if the Lib Dems gain B & R! There is no election in Labour/Tory marginals for the Tories to gain! The result in one seat should never be assumed to be replicated elsewhere either! At the "forthcoming election" the Tories will have to defend many seats from the LD or SNP, this means they can target far fewer seats that Labour currently marginally hold. Talk of snap GE's and taking scores of Labour seats is a nice fantasy but I think reality offers a different and more likely path.

On the latest Yougov the Tories would gain 41 Labour seats, while only losing 13 seats to the LDs and at most about 10 to the SNP

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

UNS is a difficult principle to invest much faith on in the current political environment. Usually a political party will do months of constituency polling before they take the plunge on a snap election or that is what I have been led to believe. Any GE now will be a massive gamble and given the new Government will not have instigated any tax giveaway that people will demonstrably feel in their pocket this autumn or any tangible change in public expenditure, an early GE could create an upset as big as anything we have seen since 1970.

Understatement of the year. UNS is bust.

Pulpstar

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It would be a very impressive result if the Conservatives won.

Unless they or for that matter the Liberal Democrats win by a huge margin, nobody should read too much into this.

No I think a hold for the Tories, any hold would be a superb result for them.

Beibheirli_C

The_Taxman said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

The Tories are not fit for governing at present.

The problem is that neither are any of the other parties

For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.

I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...

justin124

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

Yes, but the swing from Labour to Tory is irrelevant if the Lib Dems gain B & R! There is no election in Labour/Tory marginals for the Tories to gain! The result in one seat should never be assumed to be replicated elsewhere either! At the "forthcoming election" the Tories will have to defend many seats from the LD or SNP, this means they can target far fewer seats that Labour currently marginally hold. Talk of snap GE's and taking scores of Labour seats is a nice fantasy but I think reality offers a different and more likely path.

On the latest Yougov the Tories would gain 41 Labour seats, while only losing 13 seats to the LDs and at most about 10 to the SNP

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

Even that is an exaggeration. A 10% Tory lead represents a swing from Labour of 3.75% since 2017 and would produce 35 gains at Labour expense assuming a uniform swing. Comres and Opinium,however, are showing a small swing to Labour compared with 2017 and would imply some Tory losses.

Byronic

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

Idly browsing away the rest of my dwindling life, this afternoon, I unearthed this Total Gem from Polly Tuscany

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/27/tories-petrified-jeremy-corbyn-rightwing-press-labour-party-conference

Glorious sentences abound. Choose your favourite.

"After his conference speech, the Mail is among those warning that the Labour leader is crushing a stale, fatigued Tory party"

"Corbynism is shifting the ground beneath the Tories’ feet and they sound knee-knocking scared"

"Labour will have a clear run whenever the next election comes."

Etc. Etc

Magnificent.

Whenever I think of Her Pollyness, I always think of this:

https://mirror.uncyc.org/wiki/Polly_Toynbee

Well worth a read.

Good night.

She has a *butler*???

I know it's half joking, but I half believe it. She is absurdly rich. Even richer is Guardian columnist Marina Hyde, who recently and casually phoned an architect friend of mine and said "oh, Zak, I've stupidly bought another house, do you think you could do it up?"

The latest house - one of several - is worth at least £5m.

The_Taxman

anothernick said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

Yes, but the swing from Labour to Tory is irrelevant if the Lib Dems gain B & R! There is no election in Labour/Tory marginals for the Tories to gain! The result in one seat should never be assumed to be replicated elsewhere either! At the "forthcoming election" the Tories will have to defend many seats from the LD or SNP, this means they can target far fewer seats that Labour currently marginally hold. Talk of snap GE's and taking scores of Labour seats is a nice fantasy but I think reality offers a different and more likely path.

On the latest Yougov the Tories would gain 41 Labour seats, while only losing 13 seats to the LDs and at most about 10 to the SNP

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

UNS is a difficult principle to invest much faith on in the current political environment. Usually a political party will do months of constituency polling before they take the plunge on a snap election or that is what I have been led to believe. Any GE now will be a massive gamble and given the new Government will not have instigated any tax giveaway that people will demonstrably feel in their pocket this autumn or any tangible change in public expenditure, an early GE could create an upset as big as anything we have seen since 1970.

And leaving aside the current political meltdown, the history of snap elections is not encouraging for governments. 2017, 1974, 1970 …..

And the Tories would either have to say they were seeking a mandate for no deal, which would lose them their remain supporters, or that they believed the EU would offer a better deal, which is scarcely credible and would lead to accusations of imminent betrayal from BXP etc and might well be ruled out publicly by the EU during the campaign.

I can only think of 1966 as being a really successful snap election. I don't really count the Thatcher or Blair elections after 4 years as a snap election as they co-ordinated Government spending increases and tax cuts strategically to coincide with an election in that year.

OnlyLivingBoy

IanB2 said:

And the £ falls back again

To be fair that is a USD move based on the less dovish than expected Fed. GBP is still up vs the EUR on the day, although big picture sterling is still on the slide as no deal worries mount.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

Lettuce not get hung up on such things.

More seriously, I warned you picking a Gog would play badly here...seems I was right.

They should have tried a carrot and stick approach.

Instead they gingered things up.

Now you’re getting to the root of the matter.

justin124

AlastairMeeks said:

It would be a very impressive result if the Conservatives won.

A disaster for the LibDems in view of recent hype - given that they have held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years.

justin124

The_Taxman said:

anothernick said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

Yes, but the swing from Labour to Tory is irrelevant if the Lib Dems gain B & R! There is no election in Labour/Tory marginals for the Tories to gain! The result in one seat should never be assumed to be replicated elsewhere either! At the "forthcoming election" the Tories will have to defend many seats from the LD or SNP, this means they can target far fewer seats that Labour currently marginally hold. Talk of snap GE's and taking scores of Labour seats is a nice fantasy but I think reality offers a different and more likely path.

On the latest Yougov the Tories would gain 41 Labour seats, while only losing 13 seats to the LDs and at most about 10 to the SNP

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

UNS is a difficult principle to invest much faith on in the current political environment. Usually a political party will do months of constituency polling before they take the plunge on a snap election or that is what I have been led to believe. Any GE now will be a massive gamble and given the new Government will not have instigated any tax giveaway that people will demonstrably feel in their pocket this autumn or any tangible change in public expenditure, an early GE could create an upset as big as anything we have seen since 1970.

And leaving aside the current political meltdown, the history of snap elections is not encouraging for governments. 2017, 1974, 1970 …..

And the Tories would either have to say they were seeking a mandate for no deal, which would lose them their remain supporters, or that they believed the EU would offer a better deal, which is scarcely credible and would lead to accusations of imminent betrayal from BXP etc and might well be ruled out publicly by the EU during the campaign.

I can only think of 1966 as being a really successful snap election. I don't really count the Thatcher or Blair elections after 4 years as a snap election as they co-ordinated Government spending increases and tax cuts strategically to coincide with an election in that year.

1970 was not a snap election either in that it took place in year 5 of the 1966 Parliament.

Sunil_Prasannan

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

The Tories are not fit for governing at present.

The problem is that neither are any of the other parties

For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.

I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...

Boris de Pfeffel's Incredibly Trick Hairstyle.

The_Taxman

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

The Tories are not fit for governing at present.

The problem is that neither are any of the other parties

For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.

I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...

+1 I agree.
I actually think an even more hung parliament is a good thing in the current political backdrop. Better to be able to do nothing than anything reckless!

Luckyguy1983

The_Taxman said:

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

The Tories are not fit for governing at present.

The problem is that neither are any of the other parties

For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.

I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...

+1 I agree.
I actually think an even more hung parliament is a good thing in the current political backdrop. Better to be able to do nothing than anything reckless!

Yes, because a paralysed Government has worked so well for the past three years...

StuartDickson

justin124 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It would be a very impressive result if the Conservatives won.

A disaster for the LibDems in view of recent hype - given that they have held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years.

Expectations management is a Lib Dem weak point.

The_Taxman

Luckyguy1983 said:

The_Taxman said:

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

The Tories are not fit for governing at present.

The problem is that neither are any of the other parties

For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.

I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...

+1 I agree.
I actually think an even more hung parliament is a good thing in the current political backdrop. Better to be able to do nothing than anything reckless!

Yes, because a paralysed Government has worked so well for the past three years...

I suspect if TM had won a majority of say 20 seats in 2017, it may well be possible that any WA would not have been passed either. Given the Tories seem now to be embracing a No Deal Brexit which will wreck the lives of many people. I think kicking the can down the road with a hamstrung parliament is the only way forward. If Labour did not have Corbyn, then they would be a welcome alternative.

OblitusSumMe

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

Casino_Royale

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

And not for the better.

williamglenn

Casino_Royale said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

And not for the better.

It’s quorn to the dogs.

StuartDickson

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

How odd! I ate my first ever BG halloumi burger yesterday. It was rubbish.

eek

If the Tories win tomorrow will TSE use his winnings on

https://twitter.com/dominos/status/1156621873574240257

Posted just to show how stupid your average American is..

FrancisUrquhart

Byronic said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

Idly browsing away the rest of my dwindling life, this afternoon, I unearthed this Total Gem from Polly Tuscany

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/27/tories-petrified-jeremy-corbyn-rightwing-press-labour-party-conference

Glorious sentences abound. Choose your favourite.

"After his conference speech, the Mail is among those warning that the Labour leader is crushing a stale, fatigued Tory party"

"Corbynism is shifting the ground beneath the Tories’ feet and they sound knee-knocking scared"

"Labour will have a clear run whenever the next election comes."

Etc. Etc

Magnificent.

Whenever I think of Her Pollyness, I always think of this:

https://mirror.uncyc.org/wiki/Polly_Toynbee

Well worth a read.

Good night.

She has a *butler*???

I know it's half joking, but I half believe it. She is absurdly rich. Even richer is Guardian columnist Marina Hyde, who recently and casually phoned an architect friend of mine and said "oh, Zak, I've stupidly bought another house, do you think you could do it up?"

The latest house - one of several - is worth at least £5m.

Wait until Jezza gets in....she will get a nasty shock then...and when she tries to pass that money down to her kids.

Luckyguy1983

justin124 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It would be a very impressive result if the Conservatives won.

A disaster for the LibDems in view of recent hype - given that they have held the seat for 25 of the last 34 years.

Not necessarily a disaster for the Lib Dems, but definitely pretty disastrous for Jo Swinson.

Sunil_Prasannan

StuartDickson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

How odd! I ate my first ever BG halloumi burger yesterday. It was rubbish.

Love Burger. Leon.

The_Taxman

justin124 said:

The_Taxman said:

anothernick said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

On the latest Yougov the Tories would gain 41 Labour seats, while only losing 13 seats to the LDs and at most about 10 to the SNP

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

UNS is a difficult principle to invest much faith on in the current political environment. Usually a political party will do months of constituency polling before they take the plunge on a snap election or that is what I have been led to believe. Any GE now will be a massive gamble and given the new Government will not have instigated any tax giveaway that people will demonstrably feel in their pocket this autumn or any tangible change in public expenditure, an early GE could create an upset as big as anything we have seen since 1970.

And leaving aside the current political meltdown, the history of snap elections is not encouraging for governments. 2017, 1974, 1970 …..

And the Tories would either have to say they were seeking a mandate for no deal, which would lose them their remain supporters, or that they believed the EU would offer a better deal, which is scarcely credible and would lead to accusations of imminent betrayal from BXP etc and might well be ruled out publicly by the EU during the campaign.

I can only think of 1966 as being a really successful snap election. I don't really count the Thatcher or Blair elections after 4 years as a snap election as they co-ordinated Government spending increases and tax cuts strategically to coincide with an election in that year.

1970 was not a snap election either in that it took place in year 5 of the 1966 Parliament.

That is true. I think the union problems and lack of giveaway budget in 1970 did for Wilson. It was an impressive achievement for the Tories to overturn a pretty big majority as they did and to obtain a working majority that could theoretically last a full five year parliament. Shame for Heath and the country it ended as it did! Wilson was probably a more gifted operator and politician than Heath to be fair.

anothernick

The_Taxman said:

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

The Tories are not fit for governing at present.

The problem is that neither are any of the other parties

For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.

I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...

+1 I agree.
I actually think an even more hung parliament is a good thing in the current political backdrop. Better to be able to do nothing than anything reckless!

Quite. The current situation is much better than either a no deal majority under Boris or a Marxist majority under Corbyn.

Sunil_Prasannan

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

I actually like Gregg's Vegan Sausage Roll!

Beibheirli_C

Luckyguy1983 said:

The_Taxman said:

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

The Tories are not fit for governing at present.

The problem is that neither are any of the other parties

For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.

I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...

+1 I agree.
I actually think an even more hung parliament is a good thing in the current political backdrop. Better to be able to do nothing than anything reckless!

Yes, because a paralysed Government has worked so well for the past three years...

Yes. It has worked very well, and long may it continue.

viewcode

I fed today's YouGov into Flavible and ElectoralCalculus.
In both cases, LD takes B&R. Flavible says it's 44% LD, 33% Con. Is Matt Singh coming out with another poll?

StuartDickson

WTF! SLab back in 5th place again in today’s YouGov. Maybe the Euros weren’t a one off?

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/twa1h7mn6m/TimesResults_190730_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

Corbyn had an horrific approval rating in the last Opinium in Scotland: worse than both Johnson and Farage. It was like -55 or something. I cannot remember any Labour leader ever getting such a poor rating among Scots.

Looks like folk have finally clicked.

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

[swaggering] Man, I've been a vegetarian for nearly 28 years

CorrectHorseBattery

I think the most likely outcome of any GE is a Labour minority Government.

StuartDickson

Beibheirli_C said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

The_Taxman said:

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

The Tories are not fit for governing at present.

The problem is that neither are any of the other parties

For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.

I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...

+1 I agree.
I actually think an even more hung parliament is a good thing in the current political backdrop. Better to be able to do nothing than anything reckless!

Yes, because a paralysed Government has worked so well for the past three years...

Yes. It has worked very well, and long may it continue.

Agree. Job done. Long may it continue. If the buggers have no power they can’t do any damage.

StuartDickson

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think the most likely outcome of any GE is a Labour minority Government.

Ooh, tasty! I think that was 5/1 last time I looked.

CorrectHorseBattery

StuartDickson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think the most likely outcome of any GE is a Labour minority Government.

Ooh, tasty! I think that was 5/1 last time I looked.

I chose Labour for Most Seats at Betfair Exchange at 2.44, probably should have held off really, oh well.

I think it's inconceivable Corbyn will poll at 20%, lower than 30% would be truly astonishing and would be Labour's worst result for a very very long time.

I think during an election period, No Deal is going to put off a lot of liberal Tories who will vote Lib Dem and deny the Tories a majority.

The SNP will presumably win a landslide in Scotland.

Can't see the Tories winning the North, they are still despised (remember all that bluster in 2017?).

I just don't feel Johnson has a large enough coalition of voters to win a majority.

I did call 2017 correctly!

Stereotomy

StuartDickson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

How odd! I ate my first ever BG halloumi burger yesterday. It was rubbish.

As a vegetarian I sometimes consider going vegan so that people will stop offering me halloumi.

theakes

Surely of equal if not more importance is the apparent collapsing Brecon Labour vote which appears to be going very heavily to the Lib Dems.If the fall from 18 to say 4-5% then that alone would put the Lib Dems at over 40%.

Zephyr

anothernick said:

The_Taxman said:

Beibheirli_C said:

The_Taxman said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

How many people who voted Labour last time are now intending to vote for the Tories? What have the Tories done to persuade people of their competence, compassion, even common sense?

I think the collective Tory fantasy is a reverse 1997 result, where the Tories gain safe Labour seats. The fact that the Tories have been in power for nearly 10 years in various Governments. The fact public spending has seen only limited increases at best for this decade, whilst wage growth has been stagnant or not keeping up with inflation passes by enthusiastic Tories. The political cycle and fundamentals are against the Tories increasing seats yet we are meant to believe talk of Tory majorities and gains of safe Labour seats. It is all nonsense!

The Tories are not fit for governing at present.

The problem is that neither are any of the other parties

For a purely personal viewpoint, I hope the Lib Dems take the seat tomorrow and that the Tory MP agonising other whether to join the LDs gets his spine stiffened enough to actually do it.

I would enjoy the spectacle of De Piffle leading a hamstrung govt within his first month...

+1 I agree.
I actually think an even more hung parliament is a good thing in the current political backdrop. Better to be able to do nothing than anything reckless!

Quite. The current situation is much better than either a no deal majority under Boris or a Marxist majority under Corbyn.

Corbyns politics is closer to wolfie smith than Karl Marx.

On Marx grave it says Enough philosophising, we can change this world. Corbyn the ditherer, captive of left wing British trade unionism and his whole lifetime of protest and prejudice rather than coalition building ain’t going to change no world.

theakes

Notwithstanding I could not resist Cons at 8-1. Seems the only reasonable bet out there given the crazy price the Lib Dems command.

viewcode

theakes said:

Surely of equal if not more importance is the apparent collapsing Brecon Labour vote which appears to be going very heavily to the Lib Dems.If the fall from 18 to say 4-5% then that alone would put the Lib Dems at over 40%.

Source? Link? Please?

justin124

The_Taxman said:

justin124 said:

The_Taxman said:

anothernick said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

HYUFD said:

FPTP will be the Tory saviour if the swing from Labour to Tory tomorrow is bigger than the swing from Tory to LD

Though of course any Labour to Tory swing tomorrow will benefit the Tories as there are more Labour Tory marginal seats than Tory LD marginal seats

On the latest Yougov the Tories would gain 41 Labour seats, while only losing 13 seats to the LDs and at most about 10 to the SNP

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

UNS is a difficult principle to invest much faith on in the current political environment. Usually a political party will do months of constituency polling before they take the plunge on a snap election or that is what I have been led to believe. Any GE now will be a massive gamble and given the new Government will not have instigated any tax giveaway that people will demonstrably feel in their pocket this autumn or any tangible change in public expenditure, an early GE could create an upset as big as anything we have seen since 1970.

And leaving aside the current political meltdown, the history of snap elections is not encouraging for governments. 2017, 1974, 1970 …..

And the Tories would either have to say they were seeking a mandate for no deal, which would lose them their remain supporters, or that they believed the EU would offer a better deal, which is scarcely credible and would lead to accusations of imminent betrayal from BXP etc and might well be ruled out publicly by the EU during the campaign.

I can only think of 1966 as being a really successful snap election. I don't really count the Thatcher or Blair elections after 4 years as a snap election as they co-ordinated Government spending increases and tax cuts strategically to coincide with an election in that year.

1970 was not a snap election either in that it took place in year 5 of the 1966 Parliament.

That is true. I think the union problems and lack of giveaway budget in 1970 did for Wilson. It was an impressive achievement for the Tories to overturn a pretty big majority as they did and to obtain a working majority that could theoretically last a full five year parliament. Shame for Heath and the country it ended as it did! Wilson was probably a more gifted operator and politician than Heath to be fair.

In those days the ULster Unionists still took the Tory Whip. Without them , Heath's majority would only have been 15.

RobD

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think the most likely outcome of any GE is a Labour minority Government.

Welcome CorrectHorseBattery

viewcode

Stereotomy said:

StuartDickson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

How odd! I ate my first ever BG halloumi burger yesterday. It was rubbish.

As a vegetarian I sometimes consider going vegan so that people will stop offering me halloumi.

I like halloumi. Great in Caesar salad. Although they always forget to put the Caesar in. So it should be just salad. But I dunno. Food. It's complicated.

StuartDickson

Stereotomy said:

StuartDickson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

How odd! I ate my first ever BG halloumi burger yesterday. It was rubbish.

As a vegetarian I sometimes consider going vegan so that people will stop offering me halloumi.

It can be pretty tasty if blackened on a good charcoal barbecue. Dunno how BG managed to make it so tasteless. The poster in the restaurant said that it was genuine halloumi from Cyprus.

AndyJS

viewcode said:

theakes said:

Surely of equal if not more importance is the apparent collapsing Brecon Labour vote which appears to be going very heavily to the Lib Dems.If the fall from 18 to say 4-5% then that alone would put the Lib Dems at over 40%.

Source? Link? Please?

In the one opinion poll conducted in the seat Labour was on 8%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Brecon_and_Radnorshire_by-election

Omnium

Byronic said:

ydoethur said:

Byronic said:

Idly browsing away the rest of my dwindling life, this afternoon, I unearthed this Total Gem from Polly Tuscany

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/27/tories-petrified-jeremy-corbyn-rightwing-press-labour-party-conference

Glorious sentences abound. Choose your favourite.

"After his conference speech, the Mail is among those warning that the Labour leader is crushing a stale, fatigued Tory party"

"Corbynism is shifting the ground beneath the Tories’ feet and they sound knee-knocking scared"

"Labour will have a clear run whenever the next election comes."

Etc. Etc

Magnificent.

Whenever I think of Her Pollyness, I always think of this:

https://mirror.uncyc.org/wiki/Polly_Toynbee

Well worth a read.

Good night.

She has a *butler*???

I know it's half joking, but I half believe it. She is absurdly rich. Even richer is Guardian columnist Marina Hyde, who recently and casually phoned an architect friend of mine and said "oh, Zak, I've stupidly bought another house, do you think you could do it up?"

The latest house - one of several - is worth at least £5m.

I think it's entirely clear that there will never be anything good to be said about Toynbee. Full on dismal from this day forth. Nice name though 'Polly'. Ho hum.

CorrectHorseBattery

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think the most likely outcome of any GE is a Labour minority Government.

Welcome CorrectHorseBattery

Hi there! Thanks a lot.

Luckyguy1983

Vegetarianism and its more debilitating brother veganism are a huge threat to human health.

Casino_Royale

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

[swaggering] Man, I've been a vegetarian for nearly 28 years

Which is fine, vegetarians have always been around, but not the new preachy vegan and shaming kind.

A personal choice is fine.

StuartDickson

viewcode said:

Stereotomy said:

StuartDickson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1156640838379855872

Quite right.

Who wants to vote for a vegetable botherer?

I walked past an ad for a halloumi burger today. From Burger King. The world is changing.

How odd! I ate my first ever BG halloumi burger yesterday. It was rubbish.

As a vegetarian I sometimes consider going vegan so that people will stop offering me halloumi.

I like halloumi. Great in Caesar salad. Although they always forget to put the Caesar in. So it should be just salad. But I dunno. Food. It's complicated.

Caesar salad is too often served without anchovies, and/or other key ingredients. I therefore almost never order it. Halloumi is not a correct ingredient in caesar salad.