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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effe

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effectiveness of Remain parties working together

Reflecting on the Brecon outcome the most striking feature which hasn’t really been commented on is that in a seat in Wales that PC felt able to step aside in order  to help defeat the pro-Brexit Tories.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited August 2019
    First. It`s a good feeling!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Second like the Lib Dems in B&R at the next GE.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Remain alliance guarantees Brexit alliance
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Plaid Cymru did stand down; the LibDems did win. How closely those two things were connected is less clear. You can slice and dice close results to reach many different conclusions. The Boris bounce is over; Jo Swinson finding her way to the constituency was key. Of course, many on the blue team will say if only TBP had not stood. Some in Labour as well, as they seemed to be leaking votes to Farage's man.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    FPT:

    How many days does Boris have to be in office before he can no longer be the shortest lived premiership?

    In terms of total time spent as PM (i.e. all stints), then he needs to serve 119 days to tie George Canning (20 November is that date).

    The shortest stint as PM was the second stint of the Duke of Wellington. If Boris makes it to 15 August, he will tie the 22 days for which Wellington was PM on that occasion.
  • The Remain Alliance should work together in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 3,630
    Does anyone know of an open source spreadsheet with all the GE results from 2017 for each seat? Want to do some number crunching...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around... ;)
  • Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    Maybe if Davies had resigned and a new candidate stood in his place, the Tories might have held onto the seat?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    He will be outbid by all the other parties, and he can't claim fiscal responsibility or austerity.

    He has burned the Tory reputation on the altar of Brexit.

    Numpty.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Main take away from me is having a convicted criminal as your candidate in an election is a pretty bad idea.

    Lawbreakers can't be Lawmakers...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    How many days does Boris have to be in office before he can no longer be the shortest lived premiership?

    In terms of total time spent as PM (i.e. all stints), then he needs to serve 119 days to tie George Canning (20 November is that date).

    The shortest stint as PM was the second stint of the Duke of Wellington. If Boris makes it to 15 August, he will tie the 22 days for which Wellington was PM on that occasion.
    Thank you! Let us hope he is out by the 19th November then. That would be Karma!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    He has to borrow the money to fill it first.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Remain alliance guarantees Brexit alliance

    And vice versa with spades
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TIG didn't stand either ?

    Are they even a thing anymore ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    GIN1138 said:

    Why do I get the feeling the Lib-Dems won't be as keen to return the favour to Greens and Plaid next time around... ;)

    Will Plaid and the Greens stand aside in B&R in the General? Not at all obvious.

    Will the Brexit Party field a candidate? Not at all obvious.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    Scott_P said:

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    He will be outbid by all the other parties, and he can't claim fiscal responsibility or austerity.

    He has burned the Tory reputation on the altar of Brexit.

    Numpty.
    Indeed. Spending based on borrowing for an entirely politically driven vanity project, that will result in massive job losses is not a good look for a Conservative Chancellor.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
  • The Remain Alliance should work together in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

    It is a period of civil war.
    Remainer spaceships, striking
    from a hidden base, have won
    their first victory against
    the evil Tory Empire.

    During the battle, Remainer
    spies managed to steal secret
    plans to the Empire's
    ultimate weapon, the BORIS
    BOUNCER, an armored space
    station with enough power to
    knock up an entire parliamentary
    constituency.

    Pursued by the Empire's
    sinister agents, Princess
    Jo races home aboard her
    battle bus, custodian of the
    stolen plans that can save
    her people and restore
    freedom to the Continent....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    philiph said:

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).

    If Labour ditched Jezza and backed Remain, they would eliminate the LibDems and trounce the Tories.

    They will do neither of those things, so the Lib Dems will clean up instead.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    philiph said:

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).

    I still think they can ride both horses but as a pure electoral calculation, if I had to choose between the centre-left bloc abandoned by Corbyn and the centre-right bloc abandoned by Boris I'd go for the centre-right one. Boris probably still has quite a few voters not fully on board with the Full English Brexit thing but they won't stick with him long if he actually does it.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    By "war chest" I assume you mean the taxpayers' cash.

    In one sense you are right there will be no limit to the amount of our money that Johnson will spaff on boosting his personal chances of re-election. Hypocrisy from Tories on public spending is truly breathtaking
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    IanB2 said:

    Remain alliance guarantees Brexit alliance

    And vice versa with spades
    Brexit alliance will win as Labour will take part in neither. LD plus Green plus PC plus TIG is very much less than Con plus BXP plus the 4 remaining kippers
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    148grss said:

    Does anyone know of an open source spreadsheet with all the GE results from 2017 for each seat? Want to do some number crunching...

    The House of Commons published the results in spreadsheet format. Scroll down for the links at the bottom of:
    https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7979
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited August 2019

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    Maybe if Davies had resigned and a new candidate stood in his place, the Tories might have held onto the seat?

    Except wasn't he reselected because of his personal following in the constituency? If HQ had parachuted in someone else they would have lost some votes. Swings and roundabouts
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    ? almost ?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    Both men are probably a little intelligent for your taste. Titter!
  • OllyT said:

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    By "war chest" I assume you mean the taxpayers' cash.

    In one sense you are right there will be no limit to the amount of our money that Johnson will spaff on boosting his personal chances of re-election. Hypocrisy from Tories on public spending is truly breathtaking
    "There is no such thing as "public money". There is only taxpayers' money."
    - Maggie Thatcher, 1983.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    Both men are probably a little intelligent for your taste. Titter!
    They are certainly too snobbish for my taste.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Scott_P said:
    Mass lamb slaughtering. In November?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Mass lamb slaughtering. In November?
    Blair won in 2001 after the cow and sheep bonfires!
  • Scott_P said:

    philiph said:

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).

    If Labour ditched Jezza and backed Remain, they would eliminate the LibDems and trounce the Tories.

    They will do neither of those things, so the Lib Dems will clean up instead.
    It's a bit late for Jezza, Scott, and probably for the LAbour Party too. Six months ago it might still have worked, but it would lack credibility now.

    LDs will certainly clean up, but to what extent? Brecon was a good result but hardly a whitewash.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    You mean spending our money to tell us why the are screwing us !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited August 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Remain alliance guarantees Brexit alliance

    And vice versa with spades
    Brexit alliance will win as Labour will take part in neither. LD plus Green plus PC plus TIG is very much less than Con plus BXP plus the 4 remaining kippers
    If so then Labour will continue its role as the principal obstacle to decent non-conservative government in this country

    But a BXP no deal tainted Tory Party wont carry all the Tory vote
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I'm not sure that Mike is right in his interpretation of this result. Yes, the 'Remain coalition' might have helped the LibDems to an extent, but it's not obvious that it was very important, especially since they didn't campaign on Brexit particularly. In addition, the circumstances of the by-election were extremely unusual, and national politics is in turmoil, and this is a very atypical constituency.

    All in all, it probably doesn't tell us very much at all.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    UKIP have had their continuity SDP/Bootle moment. Time to pack it up.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    Both men are probably a little intelligent for your taste. Titter!
    They are certainly too snobbish for my taste.

    Ah, chippyness is your reasoning, fair enough! Well, I guess you prefer the Eton educated buffoon type as an example of non-snobbishness. Or perhaps the Dulwich College educated Mr Farridge, with his leaked photos of him in CCF uniform? Brexit madness does cause some very confused logic.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
    And washed down by a pint of alcohol free Kingfisher.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Remain alliance guarantees Brexit alliance

    And vice versa with spades
    Brexit alliance will win as Labour will take part in neither. LD plus Green plus PC plus TIG is very much less than Con plus BXP plus the 4 remaining kippers
    If so then Labour will continue its role as the principal obstacle to decent non-conservative government in this country
    No, the remainers for Corbyn 17 arent coming back. Labour is done.
  • Scott_P said:
    :) That is by no means the worst Brexit policy I have heard of, and far better than Boris's.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It's a bit late for Jezza, Scott, and probably for the LAbour Party too. Six months ago it might still have worked, but it would lack credibility now.

    Depends on the circumstances perhaps.

    If Jezza just quit, maybe. If he was challenged and beaten, maybe not.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    OllyT said:

    By "war chest" I assume you mean the taxpayers' cash.

    In one sense you are right there will be no limit to the amount of our money that Johnson will spaff on boosting his personal chances of re-election. Hypocrisy from Tories on public spending is truly breathtaking

    https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1156895669317242883
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Can someone explain to me why it appears to be assumed that a Boris/Farage pact would mean simply adding the Tory and Brexit votes together? Surely there is a substantial minority of Tory voters for whom this will be the final straw and a similar proportion of Brexit party voters for whom voting Tory is an anathema?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
    And washed down by a pint of alcohol free Kingfisher.
    Ugh. Just ugh at the thought of Cooper and Benn anywhere near power. Sanctimonious twits.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    It's a bit late for Jezza, Scott, and probably for the LAbour Party too. Six months ago it might still have worked, but it would lack credibility now.

    Depends on the circumstances perhaps.

    If Jezza just quit, maybe. If he was challenged and beaten, maybe not.
    Last Labour leader to quit mid term ?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
    And washed down by a pint of alcohol free Kingfisher.
    As opposed to a meal of Boris, Pritti, Rees-Snob and Gove that promises so much in flavour, but burns your mouth out, gives you the screaming shits almost immediately and causes you to be off work for months recovering from a very bad decision
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Scott_P said:

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    He will be outbid by all the other parties, and he can't claim fiscal responsibility or austerity.

    He has burned the Tory reputation on the altar of Brexit.

    Numpty.
    lol

    what tory reputation ? Fiscal responsibility died with Cameron and Osborne
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
    OTOH It wouldn't give you the shits.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Scott_P said:
    I like the 8% BXP vote post No Deal Brexit.

    Presumably nothing less than concentration camps for foreigners and rebuilding bomber command to flatten German cities will satisfy them!

    If even No Deal wouldn't get them voting Tory then nothing else will!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain to me why it appears to be assumed that a Boris/Farage pact would mean simply adding the Tory and Brexit votes together? Surely there is a substantial minority of Tory voters for whom this will be the final straw and a similar proportion of Brexit party voters for whom voting Tory is an anathema?

    It doesn't, however there is polling and electoral evidence of over 40% wanting to finish and do Brexit and only two parties offering that if we exclude the 2 remaining kippers. It will win a handsome majority versus labour and the remain alliance split 25/25 or thereabouts.
    Remain cannot win as its split between too many factions under FPTP
  • Scott_P said:

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    He will be outbid by all the other parties, and he can't claim fiscal responsibility or austerity.

    He has burned the Tory reputation on the altar of Brexit.

    Numpty.
    lol

    what tory reputation ? Fiscal responsibility died with Cameron and Osborne
    So a massive reduction in the deficit is not fiscal responsibility?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain to me why it appears to be assumed that a Boris/Farage pact would mean simply adding the Tory and Brexit votes together? Surely there is a substantial minority of Tory voters for whom this will be the final straw and a similar proportion of Brexit party voters for whom voting Tory is an anathema?

    Indeed.

    Bozo is already losing moderate Tories as any PB reader knows

    An an alliance between the two mini-Trumps would galvanize remain voters into tactical voting if not the parties into a coupon election

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
    OTOH It wouldn't give you the shits.
    But what a night!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Scott_P said:

    Don't get cocky, kid.

    The timing was perfect for the LibDems. The Saj hasn't opened his war chest - yet.

    He will be outbid by all the other parties, and he can't claim fiscal responsibility or austerity.

    He has burned the Tory reputation on the altar of Brexit.

    Numpty.
    lol

    what tory reputation ? Fiscal responsibility died with Cameron and Osborne
    So a massive reduction in the deficit is not fiscal responsibility?
    yes we still have a deficit
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain to me why it appears to be assumed that a Boris/Farage pact would mean simply adding the Tory and Brexit votes together? Surely there is a substantial minority of Tory voters for whom this will be the final straw and a similar proportion of Brexit party voters for whom voting Tory is an anathema?

    Absolutely. Nigel would be insane to form a pact with the Tories - it would kill his carefully crafted man-of-the-people, outsider-whom-the-establishment-fears persona stone dead.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    The Remain Alliance should work together in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

    It is a period of civil war.
    Remainer spaceships, striking
    from a hidden base, have won
    their first victory against
    the evil Tory Empire.

    During the battle, Remainer
    spies managed to steal secret
    plans to the Empire's
    ultimate weapon, the BORIS
    BOUNCER, an armored space
    station with enough power to
    knock up an entire parliamentary
    constituency.

    Pursued by the Empire's
    sinister agents, Princess
    Jo races home aboard her
    battle bus, custodian of the
    stolen plans that can save
    her people and restore
    freedom to the Continent....
    Weird.

    But somehow wonderful.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    I like the 8% BXP vote post No Deal Brexit.
    Like Ukip as now - in a GE they cannot achieve polling levels because they don't have the candidates.

    If Farage continues the Brexit party after we leave he is a fool - he will be managing decline. He avoided that with the Kippers - will he dodge the bullet again - I suspect so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
    OTOH It wouldn't give you the shits.
    But what a night!
    No dealers have headed to the Indian, ordered the carolina reaper phaal and by god they will have the carolina reaper Phaal.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
    OTOH It wouldn't give you the shits.
    But what a night!
    No dealers have headed to the Indian, ordered the carolina reaper phaal and by god they will have the carolina reaper Phaal.
    YOLO...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited August 2019

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Mass lamb slaughtering. In November?
    Blair won in 2001 after the cow and sheep bonfires!
    The meds supply should be the one that terrifies Johnson and his mad advisors.

    But it wont. They have to be stopped by brave MPs in September.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,847
    The point highlighted in the header is a striking takeaway from Brecon and Peterborough. Where Labour were best placed, they won. Where LibDem were best placed, they won. Con/BXP, with healthy aggregate support, nil return.

    It's not exactly fair but them's the rules. That's FPTP.

    That Remainers are (i) more likely than Leavers to vote in a GE, and (ii) are more likely than Leavers to vote tactically, means that Boris Johnson has very little chance of winning a majority in a snap election. He will therefore avoid one.

    An extension into 2020 beckons.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1157185715609985024

    Truly sad. We used to be seen as the sane, pragmatic one.

    What a shocking low state our country has been reduced to by these liars and snake oil salesmen.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    We have to differentiate between dawn, false dawn and resurgent dawn.

    If we took Brexit away and held this election with a full slate of candidates how we would predict the result to come out at this stage in the political and parliamentary cycle?

    There are so many political resurgent moments and new dawns. Most of them (for example TIG, Cleggasm, Brexit Ltd) have a habit of dwindling into fond memories for the enthusiasts before they take root and become established.

    This political fact is a truism, based on the existence of 2 major parties.

    The real opportunity for the LibDems is to replace Labour as a party of the sensible left. If they focus solely on the Brexit dimension there is a real risk that they will throw away the second (and possibly last) excellent opportunity they have had in recent years (the other was to own the positives out of the Coalition years).
    I think the opportunity for the LDs is to not replace Labour on the left, but be a broad church centrist party that is an alliance of centre left and One Nation Conservative. Dominic Grieve and Hillary Benn have more in common with each other than they have in common with Rees-Mogg and Corbyn respectively
    Yes I'd imagine a party of Grieve and Benn at a GE would sweep the board.

    Titter.

    All sounds a bit analogue in a digital age.
    A top 4 of Grieve, Benn, Cooper and Allen. The blandest government in history. Like going to the Indian and ordering 4 poppadoms without pickles
    And washed down by a pint of alcohol free Kingfisher.
    Ugh. Just ugh at the thought of Cooper and Benn anywhere near power. Sanctimonious twits.
    I refer to my previous answer. To many Leavers being clever is clearly an anathema. For a politician to support Brexit they either have to be either thick (eg. IDS, Grayling, Francois, Corbyn, etc.) or disingenuous liars that are prepared to fuck the country to further their ambitions (Bozo, Patel, Javed).
  • Scott_P said:
    Wonder how many of these seats the Tories would still win in a GE now? Will obviously need to be compensated elsewhere (and then some) to get a meaningful majority.

    Plus, on top of this, you have seats like Guildford and others around London, not on the list, which have v strong remain votes and have also flirted with the LDs in the past so, in a Cons supporting "no deal" scenario, are clearly also potentially in play.

    Sounds therefore instinctively very hard for Boris to win a majority and change the game here - the only thing that makes it possible is the uselessness of Corbyn, which is clearly not an insignificant factor....case of who is least bad, rather than who is best?!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kinabalu said:


    That Remainers are (i) more likely than Leavers to vote in a GE,

    Is that true when an outcome of the election could be a "revoke alliance" ?

    Suggest remainers are falling into a very big elephant trap.

    Team Boris isn't working to avoid an election - they are working to frame the election...

    Of course Cummings has already told everyone this in his blogs...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1157185715609985024

    Truly sad. We used to be seen as the sane, pragmatic one.

    What a shocking low state our country has been reduced to by these liars and snake oil salesmen.

    Indeed. It is a sad denial of the "it can't happen here" delusion. It can, and it is.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain to me why it appears to be assumed that a Boris/Farage pact would mean simply adding the Tory and Brexit votes together? Surely there is a substantial minority of Tory voters for whom this will be the final straw and a similar proportion of Brexit party voters for whom voting Tory is an anathema?

    My guess would be yes as to the minority of Tories quitting (I am one of them), less sure about Brexit party voters, who I would have thought would hold their noses and cast a once in a lifetime tory vote, if it looked like the best chance of a brexit and if Nige told them to.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain to me why it appears to be assumed that a Boris/Farage pact would mean simply adding the Tory and Brexit votes together? Surely there is a substantial minority of Tory voters for whom this will be the final straw and a similar proportion of Brexit party voters for whom voting Tory is an anathema?

    It doesn't, however there is polling and electoral evidence of over 40% wanting to finish and do Brexit and only two parties offering that if we exclude the 2 remaining kippers. It will win a handsome majority versus labour and the remain alliance split 25/25 or thereabouts.
    Remain cannot win as its split between too many factions under FPTP
    And also -- as the Guardian article a few days ago makes clear -- Jane Dodds did ***not*** campaign in B&R to Remain.

    She campaigned against a No Deal Brexit.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Also lost in the media chatter is the fact that some loyal supporters will vote Labour or Conservative no matter what.

    It's too simplistic even now to state that Cons + BXP = Leave
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited August 2019
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    I like the 8% BXP vote post No Deal Brexit.

    Presumably nothing less than concentration camps for foreigners and rebuilding bomber command to flatten German cities will satisfy them!

    If even No Deal wouldn't get them voting Tory then nothing else will!
    It is a f**king disgrace that this country is going to have endure self-inflicted economic collapse because of around 18-20% of the voting public.

    It seems things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.

    I am genuinely terrified for the near-term future of Britain.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766
    TGOHF said:

    kinabalu said:


    That Remainers are (i) more likely than Leavers to vote in a GE,

    Is that true when an outcome of the election could be a "revoke alliance" ?

    Suggest remainers are falling into a very big elephant trap.

    Team Boris isn't working to avoid an election - they are working to frame the election...

    Of course Cummings has already told everyone this in his blogs...
    The interesting thing about Cummings is that he has been unable to resist boasting about his methodologies. Like with all self appointed media "gurus" sometimes methods that worked 3 years ago, don't work again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    https://twitter.com/0xB0D/status/1157208053395152896

    So he must be stopped. VoNC on 4th September.
  • Scott_P said:
    I guess another approach would be to look at a range of economic forecasts for each of those four scenarios, and decide on that basis instead of narrow advantage in purely hypothetical polls.

    Oh, but I forgot... Boris is Boris.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    I like the 8% BXP vote post No Deal Brexit.

    Presumably nothing less than concentration camps for foreigners and rebuilding bomber command to flatten German cities will satisfy them!

    If even No Deal wouldn't get them voting Tory then nothing else will!
    It is a f**king disgrace that this country is going to have endure self-inflicted economic collapse because of around 18-20% of the voting public.

    It seems things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.

    I am genuinely terrified for the near-term future of Britain.

    and yet you probably didnt think that in 2005 when Blair fked the place up with about 23% of the vote
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    DougSeal said:

    Can someone explain to me why it appears to be assumed that a Boris/Farage pact would mean simply adding the Tory and Brexit votes together? Surely there is a substantial minority of Tory voters for whom this will be the final straw and a similar proportion of Brexit party voters for whom voting Tory is an anathema?

    It doesn't, however there is polling and electoral evidence of over 40% wanting to finish and do Brexit and only two parties offering that if we exclude the 2 remaining kippers. It will win a handsome majority versus labour and the remain alliance split 25/25 or thereabouts.
    Remain cannot win as its split between too many factions under FPTP
    And also -- as the Guardian article a few days ago makes clear -- Jane Dodds did ***not*** campaign in B&R to Remain.

    She campaigned against a No Deal Brexit.
    Swinson is trying to spin it as a win for Remain but when challenged:

    Swinson also rejected the idea that Dodds had deliberately not talked much about Brexit during the campaign.

    She said: “I absolutely heard her talking about stopping a no-deal Brexit. Farmers in this area talked to her about their concerns when we’re looking at 40% tariffs on lamb exports.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/aug/02/brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection-result-lib-dems-no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-live
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Is it going to be even possible to hold a GE in a No Deal emergency measures situation?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    I like the 8% BXP vote post No Deal Brexit.

    Presumably nothing less than concentration camps for foreigners and rebuilding bomber command to flatten German cities will satisfy them!

    If even No Deal wouldn't get them voting Tory then nothing else will!
    It is a f**king disgrace that this country is going to have endure self-inflicted economic collapse because of around 18-20% of the voting public.

    It seems things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.

    I am genuinely terrified for the near-term future of Britain.

    and yet you probably didnt think that in 2005 when Blair fked the place up with about 23% of the vote
    I did, and I still think so now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Plaid Cymru did stand down; the LibDems did win. How closely those two things were connected is less clear. You can slice and dice close results to reach many different conclusions. The Boris bounce is over; Jo Swinson finding her way to the constituency was key. Of course, many on the blue team will say if only TBP had not stood. Some in Labour as well, as they seemed to be leaking votes to Farage's man.

    I agree with this. Any Plaid voters willing to vote for the Liberal Democrats would have done so in 2017. The tiny handful left probably account for the depressed turnout.

    What boosted the Liberal Democrats appears to have been significant switching from Labour and the Tories. That might be due to remain, or Johnson and Corbyn, or Davies' conviction, or even just a desire to shake things up.

    @SouthamObserver - this hasn't been a safe seat for anybody since Brynmawr was removed in the 1970s. It is always marginal. Whatever the headline result the voters will change things around, sometimes very unexpectedly as in 1992 and 2015. So it is not 'a good result for the Liberal Democrats in a safe Tory seat.' That said, it was a good result.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    I like the 8% BXP vote post No Deal Brexit.

    Presumably nothing less than concentration camps for foreigners and rebuilding bomber command to flatten German cities will satisfy them!

    If even No Deal wouldn't get them voting Tory then nothing else will!
    It is a f**king disgrace that this country is going to have endure self-inflicted economic collapse because of around 18-20% of the voting public.

    It seems things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.

    I am genuinely terrified for the near-term future of Britain.

    and yet you probably didnt think that in 2005 when Blair fked the place up with about 23% of the vote
    What ever your views of Blair's governments and policies, nothing he did comes close to the insanity of No Deal Brexit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Is it going to be even possible to hold a GE in a No Deal emergency measures situation?

    Yes.

    It will be hard for the people responsible to win it however
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.”
    Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/aug/02/brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection-result-lib-dems-no-deal-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-live

    Yeah, that’ll work.....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kinabalu said:



    That Remainers are (i) more likely than Leavers to vote in a GE, and (ii) are more likely than Leavers to vote tactically, means that Boris Johnson has very little chance of winning a majority in a snap election. He will therefore avoid one.

    An extension into 2020 beckons.

    Doubt it. It is far better to have an election (provided it is not an extinction event).

    If it leads to a minority Labour Government (with LibDems + Others), then it will be interesting to see what they actually do.

    Remember Pierre Trudeau's government fell in 1979, as he lost the election and there was a minority Conservative + Allies Government. It lasted a year, and Trudeau was back in power for another lengthy term in 1980.

    Boris does not have to "win" an election. He merely has to make sure that whoever "wins" is hamstrung.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Also lost in the media chatter is the fact that some loyal supporters will vote Labour or Conservative no matter what.

    It's too simplistic even now to state that Cons + BXP = Leave

    And some people voting Lib-Dem may still be Leavers.

    If I'd been in that seat I'd have voted Lib-Dem as the best chance of getting a convicted criminal out of Westminster.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    kinabalu said:

    The point highlighted in the header is a striking takeaway from Brecon and Peterborough. Where Labour were best placed, they won. Where LibDem were best placed, they won. Con/BXP, with healthy aggregate support, nil return.

    It's not exactly fair but them's the rules. That's FPTP.

    That Remainers are (i) more likely than Leavers to vote in a GE, and (ii) are more likely than Leavers to vote tactically, means that Boris Johnson has very little chance of winning a majority in a snap election. He will therefore avoid one.

    An extension into 2020 beckons.

    Do not draw national lessons from this seat! It is an eccentric one. The likelihood of this having been about Brexit is low.

    The key lesson, as I have said, is that Labour is haemorrhaging voters who would 15 years ago not even have considered voting for anyone else. That could be a serious matter for them. The last thing Corbyn needs is for Wales to go the way of Scotland, but helped enormously by the uselessness of Drakeford that is where matters seem to be headed.

    The bright spot is that there is no one Party placed to exploit that, but if Plaid and the Liberal Democrats carve up the Valleys and the Tories the English speaking areas of Clwyd, Powys, Pembroke and Gower, that will be the coldest of cold comfort.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Swinson Of course I am appreciative of Plaid and the Greens taking the step they did.”
    Asked if this “remain alliance” would continue, she said: “Absolutely. In most constituencies across the country it will be the Liberal Democrats that are the strongest party of remain but we recognise the value in co-operating with others for that wider national goal to protect our country’s future. I think this may well be a feature of future elections. We need to be grown up about that. Grown up co-operation across parties with the national interest will continue.”


    The Lib's never change do they? :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Doubt it. It is far better to have an election (provided it is not an extinction event).

    If it leads to a minority Labour Government (with LibDems + Others), then it will be interesting to see what they actually do.

    Remember Pierre Trudeau's government fell in 1979, as he lost the election and there was a minority Conservative + Allies Government. It lasted a year, and Trudeau was back in power for another lengthy term in 1980.

    Boris does not have to "win" an election. He merely has to make sure that whoever "wins" is hamstrung.

    But if BoZo loses the election, how long does he stay Leader?

    The Tories only picked him because he was a "winner"...
This discussion has been closed.