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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Corbyn at risk from the mother of all political decapitatio

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 3 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Corbyn at risk from the mother of all political decapitations?

We’ve heard a lot about how Boris Johnson is at risk of losing his Westminster seat come the next election. His 5,034 majority over Labour in Uxbridge & South Ruislip is not at all commanding – Labour need just a 5.4% swing to take the seat – and what with Johnson leading the charge towards a No Deal Brexit, with the economic and other disruption that would cause, on top of local issues like Heathrow, the prospect isn’t one to be ignored lightly.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    First like the LDs!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,757
    Second.. like a gentleman.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    It would be as funny as hell to watch the Jezaster lose his seat. It would be even funnier than the time Boris gave the wrong side the points on Have I Got News For You. And indeed, it might be the only way of getting rid of him.

    But the odds of it happening are truly astronomical.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    Looks like no IMF job for Osbo, provided they can tweak the age rules to let the Bulgarian take the job.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,816
    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    On topic:

    - given the geography of politics in Islington, and her less messianic status, Thornberry is the one at risk;

    - if the Greens threw their lot in with the LibDems in Islington, it could be a game changer. However Inner London Greens tend to be very lefty;

    - the fact we are even having this discussion underlines how useless referring back to previous GE results, and using the UNS model, will be (assuming the political climate remains like this).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    With friends like that, who needs Tom Watson?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,757

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
  • peterbriffapeterbriffa Posts: 23
    If Tony Blair had any balls he’d stand there as an independent.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    Oh come on. He's the best - possibly the only real - asset the Tories have right now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,432

    If Tony Blair had any balls he’d stand there as an independent.

    And lose his deposit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954
    tlg86 said:

    If Tony Blair had any balls he’d stand there as an independent.

    And lose his deposit.
    I think he could just about afford it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 3,487
    It's an entertaining idea, but it won't happen.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,816

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    tlg86 said:

    If Tony Blair had any balls he’d stand there as an independent.

    And lose his deposit.
    Corbyn losing his seat and Blair losing his deposit at the same count would be pure political porn. It would be even beyond popcorn.

    But neither is going to happen.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,487
    Interesting thread Herders. Thanks.

    On a related note I wonder what the Portillo Moment" of the next election will be? Clearly that depends on the general election date but if we have an October/November poll I think my shortlist would be :

    Amber Rudd - Hastings.
    Denis Skinner - Bolsover
    Steve Baker - Wycombe
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 642
    This is a QTWTAIN
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452
    'the Lib Dems have least to fear of the GB-wide parties from the SNP.'

    Hooray, we're in the Premier League now!

    I know the Ruth love-in is but a distant memory, that she'll have a list seat as a back up, she's only leader of a sub branch (currently), an election is some distance away and it's 'only' Holyrood, but Davidson is the leader most likely to get a humiliating order of the boot from her constituency.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    IanB2 said:

    Looks like no IMF job for Osbo, provided they can tweak the age rules to let the Bulgarian take the job.

    Sucking up to Johnson turned out to be a waste of time then.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,757

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
    Trying to sell Corbyn as a nice chap doesn't wash. He is a nasty piece of work. His record speaks volumes.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,741

    Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

    The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.
    I doubt the Midnight Club M25 record of 52 minutes is ever going to beaten now due to the proliferation of cameras and traffic at all times. My personal best is 1 hour 7 minutes in an E90 M3 and that was running on vapours when I pulled in to the Clacket Lane services.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 924
    Who knew Lord Ashcroft could troll so perfectly. What he is really thinking is we need Corbyn to divide the opposition giving us another ten years of inch-perfect Tory government.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    edited August 3

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
    Does he have time these days to be a good local MP? Takes an awful lot of casework and keeping in touch with the voters to keep that kind of positivity, as you no doubt well know from Broxtowe.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 3,487
    JackW said:

    Interesting thread Herders. Thanks.

    On a related note I wonder what the Portillo Moment" of the next election will be? Clearly that depends on the general election date but if we have an October/November poll I think my shortlist would be :

    Amber Rudd - Hastings.
    Denis Skinner - Bolsover
    Steve Baker - Wycombe

    Are you kidding? It's ALL of those. And scores more. Next election will be an absolute bloodbath. Would love the BBC to hire Portillo for the coverage, give him a large bucket of popcorn and keep cutting back to him for comment as we reach "Portillo moment" number 25
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
    Yep. And people like having a "well known" person as their MP, particularly if they have met them and can name drop to their friends. It's why party leaders tend to get a boost. And why previous decapitation attempts have generally failed (without a strong favourable tide) and why Bozo is, sadly, probably safe.
  • We can be fairly confident that all major parties will lose one or more high-profile MPs next time round, due to how very different the polls are, but there's another good reason why this won't happen to Corbyn, in addition to those in the article and stated in the comments. It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for the Lib Dems. They have an opportunity to win a historic number of seats. They would be crazy to put effort into such a long-shot. So this seat only switches if the voters do it themselves, without significant encouragement from the Lib Dems.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 558
    Sorry to read that Geoff Tordoff has died. In the 60s he was one of the (slightly) older Liberals who connected with the Young Liberals. And they respected him - he has been a Great Liberal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
    Does he have time these days to be a good local MP? Takes an awful lot of casework and keeping in touch with the voters to keep that kind of positivity, as you no doubt well know from Broxtowe.
    Your team does the casework; the MP just needs to keep an eye on it, show an interest, and spot the opportunities to make a difference, live locally and turn up to stuff in their community, and be good with the local media.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816
    I’m disappointed to see the Lib Dems have started actively campaigning in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. Splitting the anti-Boris vote makes it more likely he’ll hang on. (And I have a fiver on him not doing so...)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 924
    edited August 3

    JackW said:

    Interesting thread Herders. Thanks.

    On a related note I wonder what the Portillo Moment" of the next election will be? Clearly that depends on the general election date but if we have an October/November poll I think my shortlist would be :

    Amber Rudd - Hastings.
    Denis Skinner - Bolsover
    Steve Baker - Wycombe

    Are you kidding? It's ALL of those. And scores more. Next election will be an absolute bloodbath. Would love the BBC to hire Portillo for the coverage, give him a large bucket of popcorn and keep cutting back to him for comment as we reach "Portillo moment" number 25
    Many old school big name Labour scalps will be taken. I can't see too many Tories. The Conservatives under Mr Johnson are sadly in the ascendancy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    JackW said:

    Interesting thread Herders. Thanks.

    On a related note I wonder what the Portillo Moment" of the next election will be? Clearly that depends on the general election date but if we have an October/November poll I think my shortlist would be :

    Amber Rudd - Hastings.
    Denis Skinner - Bolsover
    Steve Baker - Wycombe

    JRM. It's "were you up for JRM?". No contest. he is today's Portillo. He just needs to lose.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    IanB2 said:

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
    Yep. And people like having a "well known" person as their MP, particularly if they have met them and can name drop to their friends. It's why party leaders tend to get a boost. And why previous decapitation attempts have generally failed (without a strong favourable tide) and why Bozo is, sadly, probably safe.
    I think David Trimble was the last leader of a UK political party to lose his seat in the Commons. But who was the last leader of a UK-wide party to do so? Was it Archibald Sinclair in 1945 or has there been one since?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877
    Dura_Ace said:

    Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

    The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.
    I doubt the Midnight Club M25 record of 52 minutes is ever going to beaten now due to the proliferation of cameras and traffic at all times. My personal best is 1 hour 7 minutes in an E90 M3 and that was running on vapours when I pulled in to the Clacket Lane services.
    Did you ever do Marble Arch to Cardiff Castle? My understanding is that the record was pared down close to an hour until the fuzz got wise to what was going on.
  • EmptyNesterEmptyNester Posts: 51
    For what it's worth, my son lives in the same street as Corbyn and is no longer wakened in the small hours by residents returning home belting out 'Oh, Jeremy Corbyn'.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,816

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
    Does he have time these days to be a good local MP? Takes an awful lot of casework and keeping in touch with the voters to keep that kind of positivity, as you no doubt well know from Broxtowe.
    Rather too much time, I think. He is notorious for letting his surgeries go on and on and on. I went to one and took a book to be on the safe side - it lasted well over 4 hours, and he was still patiently giving each constituent all the time they seemed to want. Examples of local people who he has knocked himself out to help are legion. I can well imagine him turning up late for an NEC because he's talking to a local shopkeeper about the impact of rates.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,741

    Dura_Ace said:

    Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

    The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.
    I doubt the Midnight Club M25 record of 52 minutes is ever going to beaten now due to the proliferation of cameras and traffic at all times. My personal best is 1 hour 7 minutes in an E90 M3 and that was running on vapours when I pulled in to the Clacket Lane services.
    Did you ever do Marble Arch to Cardiff Castle? My understanding is that the record was pared down close to an hour until the fuzz got wise to what was going on.
    Nope, I've never heard of that "Monument" but it sounds interesting. John O'Groats to Land's End has been done sub 10 hours in an Audi S5 which I don't think could be bettered without a very heavily modified car (200L+ fuel capacity) and a sanguine acceptance of the risk of death in a crash.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    London has very rapid turnover of residents in its seats. Since its voters change rapidly, its results could change dramatically. Islington North is safe enough but Islington South & Finsbury might be a real battle.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
    Does he have time these days to be a good local MP? Takes an awful lot of casework and keeping in touch with the voters to keep that kind of positivity, as you no doubt well know from Broxtowe.
    Rather too much time, I think. He is notorious for letting his surgeries go on and on and on. I went to one and took a book to be on the safe side - it lasted well over 4 hours, and he was still patiently giving each constituent all the time they seemed to want. Examples of local people who he has knocked himself out to help are legion. I can well imagine him turning up late for an NEC because he's talking to a local shopkeeper about the impact of rates.
    I've heard lots of negative things about Corbyn, many of which are obviously true. But I've never heard anyone say he's a bad constituency MP.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816
    edited August 3
    Editor of The Always Rational and Well-Sourced Canary Accuses Others of Hysteria Shocker
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    IanB2 said:

    Looks like no IMF job for Osbo, provided they can tweak the age rules to let the Bulgarian take the job.

    A “rules based organisation” wants to “tweak the rules”. Odd that, I had been routinely assured it was impossible.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593
    What was the last decapitation strategy that truly worked? It feels hard to tell as sometimes big names go as part of tidal surges not especial effort.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    edited August 3
    IDS is now so unhinged he is equating No Deal Brexit to the Reformation:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/02/reformation-making-modern-britain-brexit-similar-opportunity/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593

    Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".

    Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...

    Difficult to comment without seeing what disturbed you so much, but pretty much everyone in Parliament has been to events where you don't sign up to some of the other people there, without actually walking out.
    And I'm sure you and other parliamentarians of all stripes never condemned opponents for attending events with people they disapprove of, implying they agree with those people if they did not speak up or leave. They never judge opponents by company they keep whilst holding themselves to a different standard.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    Editor of The Always Rational and Well-Sourced Canary Accuses Others of Hysteria Shocker
    It is a tragedy that they are having to regroup, and slim down, as advertisers are unwilling to be associated with this excellent news source.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

    The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.
    I doubt the Midnight Club M25 record of 52 minutes is ever going to beaten now due to the proliferation of cameras and traffic at all times. My personal best is 1 hour 7 minutes in an E90 M3 and that was running on vapours when I pulled in to the Clacket Lane services.
    Did you ever do Marble Arch to Cardiff Castle? My understanding is that the record was pared down close to an hour until the fuzz got wise to what was going on.
    Nope, I've never heard of that "Monument" but it sounds interesting. John O'Groats to Land's End has been done sub 10 hours in an Audi S5 which I don't think could be bettered without a very heavily modified car (200L+ fuel capacity) and a sanguine acceptance of the risk of death in a crash.
    These mad dashes shouldn't be encouraged but I've never actually heard of a serious accident arising from one. This is presumably because they are invariably attempted in the small hours of the morning by very good drivers in high performance cars.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    I’m sure that’s a metaphor JRM will love!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593
    edited August 3
    ydoethur said:

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
    Does he have time these days to be a good local MP? Takes an awful lot of casework and keeping in touch with the voters to keep that kind of positivity, as you no doubt well know from Broxtowe.
    Rather too much time, I think. He is notorious for letting his surgeries go on and on and on. I went to one and took a book to be on the safe side - it lasted well over 4 hours, and he was still patiently giving each constituent all the time they seemed to want. Examples of local people who he has knocked himself out to help are legion. I can well imagine him turning up late for an NEC because he's talking to a local shopkeeper about the impact of rates.
    I've heard lots of negative things about Corbyn, many of which are obviously true. But I've never heard anyone say he's a bad constituency MP.
    I would hope he is a very good one, given that and general campaigning has been his main focus in parliament for longer than I've been alive. He must enjoy the local focus of the work or hed not have lasted so long despite little inclination to seek higher office.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,432
    kle4 said:

    What was the last decapitation strategy that truly worked? It feels hard to tell as sometimes big names go as part of tidal surges not especial effort.

    Farage? I know he wasn't the incumbent, but given what went on specifically in that seat I'd say it qualifies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    What do you mean, 'now?'

    Although I'm more than a bit surprised to see a Catholic Eurosceptic using that analogy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. kle4, Caesar?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169
    The new home secretary, Priti Patel, has said she wants criminals to "literally feel terror" at the thought of breaking the law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49213743

    Can non criminals think about it though?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593

    Mr. kle4, Caesar?

    Seemed a bit self defeating. I mean, his faction successor went on to form an empire that lasted 500-1500 years after all, not a solid result for the decapitators.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    alex. said:
    In fairness, he has the right idea. We do need fibre to socket cabling, and we need it sooner rather than later. If South Korea could do it 15 years ago, we should be able to in less than 15 years from now.

    But if he doesn't provide the resources to do it quickly, his target is meaningless.

    (I'm also baffled by these experts who think 5G will be easier than cabling in the Highlands of Scotland. Have they ever tried to make a phone call in Fort Augustus?)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    Interesting - but it's important to differentiate Islington North from Islington South. I lived in Islington North for many years and it has a very different demographic to the southern part of the borough. Corbyn's majority will go down - probably substantially, but it will be at least 10,000 to 15,000. Emily Thornberry, though, could be in a real battle. That may well explain why she is becoming more and more vocal about Brexit and anti-Semitism. Her focus now is not on the leadership, but shoring up her seat.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,741
    alex. said:
    Boris looks like Fred Scuttle in that photo.

    Do you exercise your perogative?
    Only when it's slack.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593

    IanB2 said:

    Looks like no IMF job for Osbo, provided they can tweak the age rules to let the Bulgarian take the job.

    A “rules based organisation” wants to “tweak the rules”. Odd that, I had been routinely assured it was impossible.....
    Its never impossible, but theres usually not the will to do it so it might as well be.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:
    In fairness, he has the right idea. We do need fibre to socket cabling, and we need it sooner rather than later. If South Korea could do it 15 years ago, we should be able to in less than 15 years from now.

    But if he doesn't provide the resources to do it quickly, his target is meaningless.

    (I'm also baffled by these experts who think 5G will be easier than cabling in the Highlands of Scotland. Have they ever tried to make a phone call in Fort Augustus?)
    I don't think it's easier - however fibre is equally uneconomic unless the community does large bits of the work for you as B4RN showed..
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 924
    kle4 said:

    What was the last decapitation strategy that truly worked? It feels hard to tell as sometimes big names go as part of tidal surges not especial effort.

    Balls unceremoniously unseated by the fragrant Andrea Jenkyns. Balls' revolting wife would be an excellent target for later in the year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    edited August 3
    Since we are discussing swings and the potential for unusual results, I wanted to pick up a somewhat glib comment from HY FPT:
    HYUFD said:



    Not on UNS it does not, Flavible is an untested model

    Because seat boundaries haven't changed for ages, it is possible to "test" UNS with previous GE results - since swings work both forwards and backwards (i.e. if UNS is correct, you can get back to the previous GE results by deducting the swing from the latest ones).

    Running UNS (with a separate calc for Scotland) for the 2015 GE predicts a Tory majority of 64, compared to the actual outcome of 12. For the 2010 GE it predicts a Tory majority of 70, compared to the actual hung parliament.

    In both cases the flaw is to understate the seats won by the LibDems and SNP (except 2015 for the latter) and to overstate Conservative seats and understate Labour. As a predictive tool for previous GEs it is poor - as we would expect given that it was designed for two-party politics whereas recent elections have been determined by the rise and fall of votes for other parties.

    To imply that UNS is somehow a "tested model", as HY does, is a mistake. It's a broken model.

    This is the flaw that Flavible are trying to overcome, using a battery of other data including local and Euro election and 2016 referendum results and demographics. It's true this is untested (although their B&R prediction was very close), and given the way their model works it cannot really be tested with previous GE results. Nevertheless plugging the 2010 vote shares into Flavible produces a result very much closer to the actual (including the Tories falling short of a majority), principally because it recognises that a significant shift in LibDem support will be anything but uniform

    (the areas where the LDs are doing very well now in locals and Euros are broadly the same ones where they used to be strong but lost out the most in 2015/17)

    Personally I prefer a model that is trying to overcome the flaws in another that is obviously broken. Until further data suggests otherwise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593

    For what it's worth, my son lives in the same street as Corbyn and is no longer wakened in the small hours by residents returning home belting out 'Oh, Jeremy Corbyn'.

    What do they belt out instead?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Yes, I wasn't being entirely serious re Corbyn (and indeed, downplay the idea three times in the article).

    But - and I think this worth noting - I think many aspects of Corbyn's situation illustrate an important point (even if one which might not apply to him for other reasons), and we could potentially see shock Labour losses in an autumn election similar in reverse to their gains in Canterbury or Kensington, where the demographics/politics of an area makes them susceptible to a very large swing against.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 590

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Of course it's meant as a provocative in to an interesting wider topic - can fairly large Labour (or for that matter Tory) majorities wither away quickly given the remain/leave divide and Corbyn's own personal toxicity. I'd suggest that many who were happy to have Jeremy as a constituency MP are less so now his nastier traits have been exposed by the national stage.

    But, that's not that he'll actually lose - but as David points out the majority hasn't been as huge in the past and may be slashed in a way that worries other MPs with smaller substantial majorities.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,384
    While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743
    IanB2 said:

    On topic:

    - given the geography of politics in Islington, and her less messianic status, Thornberry is the one at risk;

    - if the Greens threw their lot in with the LibDems in Islington, it could be a game changer. However Inner London Greens tend to be very lefty;

    - the fact we are even having this discussion underlines how useless referring back to previous GE results, and using the UNS model, will be (assuming the political climate remains like this).

    Yes, cheers. That final bullet point is precisely the sort of issue I was hoping to raise when I wrote this.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,006
    IanB2 said:

    Since we are discussing swings and the potential for unusual results, I wanted to pick up a somewhat glib comment from HY FPT:

    HYUFD said:



    Not on UNS it does not, Flavible is an untested model

    Because seat boundaries haven't changed for ages, it is possible to "test" UNS with previous GE results - since swings work both forwards and backwards (i.e. if UNS is correct, you can get back to the previous GE results by deducting the swing from the latest ones).

    Running UNS (with a separate calc for Scotland) for the 2015 GE predicts a Tory majority of 64, compared to the actual outcome of 12. For the 2010 GE it predicts a Tory majority of 70, compared to the actual hung parliament.

    In both cases the flaw is to understate the seats won by the LibDems and SNP (except 2015 for the latter) and to overstate Conservative seats and understate Labour. As a predictive tool for previous GEs it is poor - as we would expect given that it was designed for two-party politics whereas recent elections have been determined by the rise and fall of votes for other parties.

    To imply that UNS is somehow a "tested model", as HY does, is a mistake. It's a broken model.

    This is the flaw that Flavible are trying to overcome, using a battery of other data including local and Euro election and 2016 referendum results and demographics. It's true this is untested (although their B&R prediction was very close), and given the way their model works it cannot really be tested with previous GE results. Nevertheless plugging the 2010 vote shares into Flavible produces a result very much closer to the actual (including the Tories falling short of a majority), principally because it recognises that a significant shift in LibDem support will be anything but uniform

    (the areas where the LDs are doing very well now in locals and Euros are broadly the same ones where they used to be strong but lost out the most in 2015/17)

    Personally I prefer a model that is trying to overcome the flaws in another that is obviously broken. Until further data suggests otherwise.
    Which is the model that is failing us, Mr IanB2? Is is Electoral Calculus by any chance?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338

    We can be fairly confident that all major parties will lose one or more high-profile MPs next time round, due to how very different the polls are, but there's another good reason why this won't happen to Corbyn, in addition to those in the article and stated in the comments. It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for the Lib Dems. They have an opportunity to win a historic number of seats. They would be crazy to put effort into such a long-shot. So this seat only switches if the voters do it themselves, without significant encouragement from the Lib Dems.

    I wasn't aware the LibDems had high profile MPs, especially with Grandpa Cable stepping down at the next election.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,743
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.
    No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.
    Yep. And people like having a "well known" person as their MP, particularly if they have met them and can name drop to their friends. It's why party leaders tend to get a boost. And why previous decapitation attempts have generally failed (without a strong favourable tide) and why Bozo is, sadly, probably safe.
    I think David Trimble was the last leader of a UK political party to lose his seat in the Commons. But who was the last leader of a UK-wide party to do so? Was it Archibald Sinclair in 1945 or has there been one since?
    Both Salmond and Angus Robertson weren't overall leaders of the party at the time (2017) but one was the leader in the Commons and the other a very long-serving former member. Certainly worth a mention.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338

    IanB2 said:

    Looks like no IMF job for Osbo, provided they can tweak the age rules to let the Bulgarian take the job.

    A “rules based organisation” wants to “tweak the rules”. Odd that, I had been routinely assured it was impossible.....
    The age rules are almost certainly against both US and New York State law, so they have a good excuse.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    edited August 3

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Yes, I wasn't being entirely serious re Corbyn (and indeed, downplay the idea three times in the article).

    But - and I think this worth noting - I think many aspects of Corbyn's situation illustrate an important point (even if one which might not apply to him for other reasons), and we could potentially see shock Labour losses in an autumn election similar in reverse to their gains in Canterbury or Kensington, where the demographics/politics of an area makes them susceptible to a very large swing against.

    With that in mind, Hornsey and Wood Green is well worth watching. There's also an entirely useless Momentum Council in power in Haringey now to spice things up even further. Hampstead and Kilburn might also be a vulnerable longshot.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,215

    Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".

    Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...

    I'm sure you would be welcome in several other political parties locally, some of which are not that different ideologically from pre2015 Labour.
    Unless you wanted to just sit it out.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 3,953

    Dura_Ace said:

    Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

    The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.
    I doubt the Midnight Club M25 record of 52 minutes is ever going to beaten now due to the proliferation of cameras and traffic at all times. My personal best is 1 hour 7 minutes in an E90 M3 and that was running on vapours when I pulled in to the Clacket Lane services.
    Did you ever do Marble Arch to Cardiff Castle? My understanding is that the record was pared down close to an hour until the fuzz got wise to what was going on.
    That’s 151 miles. In under an hour?

    Setting aside the real danger to everyone else and the recklessness etc, that’s got to be nigh on impossible even without traffic. Sure you don’t mean Chepstow castle?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 2,384
    Freggles said:

    Walked out of my CLP meeting last night. The review and debate of anti-semitism using a document circulated in Jeremy's name was the end. I sat looking at photos of him posing behind a banner which his own document describes as anti-semitism and thought "i cant do this any more".

    Having slept on it I am mulling just how far I am withdrawing from the party? Treasurer? Activism? Or Membership...

    I'm sure you would be welcome in several other political parties locally, some of which are not that different ideologically from pre2015 Labour.
    Unless you wanted to just sit it out.

    'The time has come for others to consider their own response to the tragic conflict of loyalties with which I have myself wrestled for perhaps too long.'
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,816

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Yes, I wasn't being entirely serious re Corbyn (and indeed, downplay the idea three times in the article).

    But - and I think this worth noting - I think many aspects of Corbyn's situation illustrate an important point (even if one which might not apply to him for other reasons), and we could potentially see shock Labour losses in an autumn election similar in reverse to their gains in Canterbury or Kensington, where the demographics/politics of an area makes them susceptible to a very large swing against.
    Yes - the swings in the national polls are so huge that they are bound to produce astonishing results in various places. That in my view is the main challenge to the Opposition parties - I think there are loads of voters who would readily vote for any of them if they felt they were the clear anti-Tory challenger and had a decent chance of unseating the Conservative MP, but it's going to be har dto work out who the main challenger is, amid a forest of leaflets with misleading bar charts and comparisons to diverse past elections.

    I don't think a Remain alliance is all that realistic in terms of candidates actually standing down - the Greens in particular leave it entirely to their constituency parties, where a handful of determined people can insist on standing (which is what went wrong in Broxtowe in 2010). But an informal agreement on who's going to try harder in different places and a certain restraint in deliberatrely misleading bar charts where we know that someone else has a better chance is conceivable. I know from direct contact that that will happen in parts of the southeast, and it was already visible in the local elections if you looked hard enough.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    rcs1000 said:

    We can be fairly confident that all major parties will lose one or more high-profile MPs next time round, due to how very different the polls are, but there's another good reason why this won't happen to Corbyn, in addition to those in the article and stated in the comments. It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for the Lib Dems. They have an opportunity to win a historic number of seats. They would be crazy to put effort into such a long-shot. So this seat only switches if the voters do it themselves, without significant encouragement from the Lib Dems.

    I wasn't aware the LibDems had high profile MPs, especially with Grandpa Cable stepping down at the next election.
    Farron is the one often predicted. Although with a counter-reaction to Brexit in rural areas, he might now be safer than it appears.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    edited August 3

    While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

    More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Yes, I wasn't being entirely serious re Corbyn (and indeed, downplay the idea three times in the article).

    But - and I think this worth noting - I think many aspects of Corbyn's situation illustrate an important point (even if one which might not apply to him for other reasons), and we could potentially see shock Labour losses in an autumn election similar in reverse to their gains in Canterbury or Kensington, where the demographics/politics of an area makes them susceptible to a very large swing against.
    Yes - the swings in the national polls are so huge that they are bound to produce astonishing results in various places. That in my view is the main challenge to the Opposition parties - I think there are loads of voters who would readily vote for any of them if they felt they were the clear anti-Tory challenger and had a decent chance of unseating the Conservative MP, but it's going to be har dto work out who the main challenger is, amid a forest of leaflets with misleading bar charts and comparisons to diverse past elections.

    I don't think a Remain alliance is all that realistic in terms of candidates actually standing down - the Greens in particular leave it entirely to their constituency parties, where a handful of determined people can insist on standing (which is what went wrong in Broxtowe in 2010). But an informal agreement on who's going to try harder in different places and a certain restraint in deliberatrely misleading bar charts where we know that someone else has a better chance is conceivable. I know from direct contact that that will happen in parts of the southeast, and it was already visible in the local elections if you looked hard enough.
    And is being talked about openly now by some of the more level heads in Labour, such as Owen Smith (OK I know). Labour is too tribal and cumbersome to join the party, but there might be a few locations that can be tempted to have a drink in the street outside.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 699

    Interesting - but it's important to differentiate Islington North from Islington South. I lived in Islington North for many years and it has a very different demographic to the southern part of the borough. Corbyn's majority will go down - probably substantially, but it will be at least 10,000 to 15,000. Emily Thornberry, though, could be in a real battle. That may well explain why she is becoming more and more vocal about Brexit and anti-Semitism. Her focus now is not on the leadership, but shoring up her seat.

    I lived in Archway (Islington North) from 98 to 2003 before moving down to Angel (Islington South) for a few years so Jezza was my MP for a bit. In fact I voted for him (shudders in shame) in 2001. I would agree with your analysis save that Islington North is gentrifying rapidly. The horrible Archway Tower over the Station has been given a facelift and is now fancy flats with a great view of the City. Even before I left estate agents were tentatively calling it “Highgate Slopes” (didn’t stick) but even so the area’s character is changing as it is squeezed between affluent areas to its north and south that would, to my mind, be prime LD remainer territory.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Yes, I wasn't being entirely serious re Corbyn (and indeed, downplay the idea three times in the article).

    But - and I think this worth noting - I think many aspects of Corbyn's situation illustrate an important point (even if one which might not apply to him for other reasons), and we could potentially see shock Labour losses in an autumn election similar in reverse to their gains in Canterbury or Kensington, where the demographics/politics of an area makes them susceptible to a very large swing against.
    Yes - the swings in the national polls are so huge that they are bound to produce astonishing results in various places. That in my view is the main challenge to the Opposition parties - I think there are loads of voters who would readily vote for any of them if they felt they were the clear anti-Tory challenger and had a decent chance of unseating the Conservative MP, but it's going to be har dto work out who the main challenger is, amid a forest of leaflets with misleading bar charts and comparisons to diverse past elections.

    I don't think a Remain alliance is all that realistic in terms of candidates actually standing down - the Greens in particular leave it entirely to their constituency parties, where a handful of determined people can insist on standing (which is what went wrong in Broxtowe in 2010). But an informal agreement on who's going to try harder in different places and a certain restraint in deliberatrely misleading bar charts where we know that someone else has a better chance is conceivable. I know from direct contact that that will happen in parts of the southeast, and it was already visible in the local elections if you looked hard enough.
    If Philip Lee defects to lib dems and stands in bracknell what would you hope the local Labour Party would do, I know bracknell going lib dem is quite a stretch but would the Labour Party ease off?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    IanB2 said:

    While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

    More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).

    Starmer is safe in Holborn and St Pancras, Tulip Siddiqi shoud be nervous in Hampstead and Kilburn. Lammy is fine in Tottenham, but even with a huge majority the Labour MP for Wood Green & Hornsey (can't remember her name) should definitely be looking over her shoulder.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    edited August 3
    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:
    In fairness, he has the right idea. We do need fibre to socket cabling, and we need it sooner rather than later. If South Korea could do it 15 years ago, we should be able to in less than 15 years from now.

    But if he doesn't provide the resources to do it quickly, his target is meaningless.

    (I'm also baffled by these experts who think 5G will be easier than cabling in the Highlands of Scotland. Have they ever tried to make a phone call in Fort Augustus?)
    So, DSL.

    You have DSL, I suspect.

    And how DSL works is that the wire that runs between your house and (at the least) your local wiring cabinet is divided into two frequency bands. One is the regular frequencies your voice uses when you're talking. The rest is used for data. But this process of sectioning off certain frequencies for data and for voice is incredibly inefficient. It means that between you and your local exchange your voice is being carried as an inefficient analog signal, and then converted to digital, and then converted back again at the other end. And you have to make sure there are big frequency "gaps" to avoid cross-contamination.

    If we simply got rid of the analog portion of the network, put ethernet sockets in homes, then we could massively simplify our networks, increase speeds dramatically, and do this all without digging up the streets to take fibre the last 100 yards. (We'd still want to do the digging up in dense urban areas... but in most towns and suburbia... why bother? Using the full frequency of twisted pair over 100 yards gets you about 2gig of bandwidth today, and that's only going to increase over time.)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    edited August 3
    DougSeal said:

    Interesting - but it's important to differentiate Islington North from Islington South. I lived in Islington North for many years and it has a very different demographic to the southern part of the borough. Corbyn's majority will go down - probably substantially, but it will be at least 10,000 to 15,000. Emily Thornberry, though, could be in a real battle. That may well explain why she is becoming more and more vocal about Brexit and anti-Semitism. Her focus now is not on the leadership, but shoring up her seat.

    I lived in Archway (Islington North) from 98 to 2003 before moving down to Angel (Islington South) for a few years so Jezza was my MP for a bit. In fact I voted for him (shudders in shame) in 2001. I would agree with your analysis save that Islington North is gentrifying rapidly. The horrible Archway Tower over the Station has been given a facelift and is now fancy flats with a great view of the City. Even before I left estate agents were tentatively calling it “Highgate Slopes” (didn’t stick) but even so the area’s character is changing as it is squeezed between affluent areas to its north and south that would, to my mind, be prime LD remainer territory.

    I was in Archway too - St John's Way. We must have been neighbours! Then I moved a bit further along to a place just off Hornsey Road. There is a lot of gentrification, but there are also a huge number of council places still and large numbers of youngish renters. Corbyn's majority will definitely go down, but it will still be large, I think.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We can be fairly confident that all major parties will lose one or more high-profile MPs next time round, due to how very different the polls are, but there's another good reason why this won't happen to Corbyn, in addition to those in the article and stated in the comments. It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for the Lib Dems. They have an opportunity to win a historic number of seats. They would be crazy to put effort into such a long-shot. So this seat only switches if the voters do it themselves, without significant encouragement from the Lib Dems.

    I wasn't aware the LibDems had high profile MPs, especially with Grandpa Cable stepping down at the next election.
    Farron is the one often predicted. Although with a counter-reaction to Brexit in rural areas, he might now be safer than it appears.
    He has a genuine personal vote (As does Lamb)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 4,441
    IanB2 said:

    While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

    More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).
    LibDems could step aside in favour of the Greens in Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith and Putney in return for Vauxhall, Wimbledon ...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,159
    Seems like an ideal seat for the LDs to stand aside for the Greens. Wouldnt produce much change in the chance of remain winning the seat, possibly a small improvement but whether its 1.5 or 2.5% makes no real difference, but it would give the greens a lot of easy publicity and make the point that Corbyn is not pro remain at the national level.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    IanB2 said:

    While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

    More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).
    I think Vauxhall could also be worth watching. Kate Hoey won't be the (Labour) candidate, but I suspect there may be a lot of residual anger that the Labour Party - in one of the most Remain seats in the country - saddled them with a Brexit Party MP.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338

    QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

    Yes, I wasn't being entirely serious re Corbyn (and indeed, downplay the idea three times in the article).

    But - and I think this worth noting - I think many aspects of Corbyn's situation illustrate an important point (even if one which might not apply to him for other reasons), and we could potentially see shock Labour losses in an autumn election similar in reverse to their gains in Canterbury or Kensington, where the demographics/politics of an area makes them susceptible to a very large swing against.

    With that in mind, Hornsey and Wood Green is well worth watching. There's also an entirely useless Momentum Council in power in Haringey now to spice things up even further. Hampstead and Kilburn might also be a vulnerable longshot.

    I can't see Hampstead & Kilburn falling, but you never know.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 1,159
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We can be fairly confident that all major parties will lose one or more high-profile MPs next time round, due to how very different the polls are, but there's another good reason why this won't happen to Corbyn, in addition to those in the article and stated in the comments. It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for the Lib Dems. They have an opportunity to win a historic number of seats. They would be crazy to put effort into such a long-shot. So this seat only switches if the voters do it themselves, without significant encouragement from the Lib Dems.

    I wasn't aware the LibDems had high profile MPs, especially with Grandpa Cable stepping down at the next election.
    Farron is the one often predicted. Although with a counter-reaction to Brexit in rural areas, he might now be safer than it appears.
    Is he standing? He has been so quiet since stopping being leader I would assume he has lost interest?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,793
    File in wishful thinking bullshit file.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    Utterly deluded. These people are off their heads with this nonsense. They just can't accept a modern, interconnected world.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    We can be fairly confident that all major parties will lose one or more high-profile MPs next time round, due to how very different the polls are, but there's another good reason why this won't happen to Corbyn, in addition to those in the article and stated in the comments. It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for the Lib Dems. They have an opportunity to win a historic number of seats. They would be crazy to put effort into such a long-shot. So this seat only switches if the voters do it themselves, without significant encouragement from the Lib Dems.

    I wasn't aware the LibDems had high profile MPs, especially with Grandpa Cable stepping down at the next election.
    Farron is the one often predicted. Although with a counter-reaction to Brexit in rural areas, he might now be safer than it appears.
    Is he standing? He has been so quiet since stopping being leader I would assume he has lost interest?
    Surely Chukka is the high profile figure who may struggle?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 699

    DougSeal said:

    Interesting - but it's important to differentiate Islington North from Islington South. I lived in Islington North for many years and it has a very different demographic to the southern part of the borough. Corbyn's majority will go down - probably substantially, but it will be at least 10,000 to 15,000. Emily Thornberry, though, could be in a real battle. That may well explain why she is becoming more and more vocal about Brexit and anti-Semitism. Her focus now is not on the leadership, but shoring up her seat.

    I lived in Archway (Islington North) from 98 to 2003 before moving down to Angel (Islington South) for a few years so Jezza was my MP for a bit. In fact I voted for him (shudders in shame) in 2001. I would agree with your analysis save that Islington North is gentrifying rapidly. The horrible Archway Tower over the Station has been given a facelift and is now fancy flats with a great view of the City. Even before I left estate agents were tentatively calling it “Highgate Slopes” (didn’t stick) but even so the area’s character is changing as it is squeezed between affluent areas to its north and south that would, to my mind, be prime LD remainer territory.

    I was in Archway too - St John's Way. We must have been neighbours! Then I moved a bit further along to a place just off Hornsey Road. There is a lot of gentrification, but there are also a huge number of council places still and large numbers of youngish renters. Corbyn's majority will definitely go down, but it will still be large, I think.

    Ha! Yes - very close indeed. I lived in Pemberton Gardens, just to the south of you off the Holloway Rd, and then a flat on Harberton Rd, to your North in the Whitehall Park estate.

    You may be right. The heart of the constituency is where the Seven Sisters Rd/Holloway Rd meet (Nags Head?) and that is still very different in character.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 11,793
    edited August 3

    IanB2 said:

    While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

    More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).

    Starmer is safe in Holborn and St Pancras, Tulip Siddiqi shoud be nervous in Hampstead and Kilburn. Lammy is fine in Tottenham, but even with a huge majority the Labour MP for Wood Green & Hornsey (can't remember her name) should definitely be looking over her shoulder.

    Johnson means LD can forget it imo.

    Those on the left priority is stop Johnson No Deal

    Only 1 party can do that.

    Plus Swinson is crap Tory voting hypocrite.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,251
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:
    In fairness, he has the right idea. We do need fibre to socket cabling, and we need it sooner rather than later. If South Korea could do it 15 years ago, we should be able to in less than 15 years from now.

    But if he doesn't provide the resources to do it quickly, his target is meaningless.

    (I'm also baffled by these experts who think 5G will be easier than cabling in the Highlands of Scotland. Have they ever tried to make a phone call in Fort Augustus?)
    So, DSL.

    You have DSL, I suspect.

    And how DSL works is that the wire that runs between your house and (at the least) your local wiring cabinet is divided into two frequency bands. One is the regular frequencies your voice uses when you're talking. The rest is used for data. But this process of sectioning off certain frequencies for data and for voice is incredibly inefficient. It means that between you and your local exchange your voice is being carried as an inefficient analog signal, and then converted to digital, and then converted back again at the other end. And you have to make sure there are big frequency "gaps" to avoid cross-contamination.

    If we simply got rid of the analog portion of the network, put ethernet sockets in homes, then we could massively simplify our networks, increase speeds dramatically, and do this all without digging up the streets to take fibre the last 100 yards. (We'd still want to do the digging up in dense urban areas... but in most towns and suburbia... why bother? Using the full frequency of twisted pair over 100 yards gets you about 2gig of bandwidth today, and that's only going to increase over time.)
    BT are hoping to switch off the old PSTN service, by 2025 they want all telephone lines on their network to be VoIP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:
    In fairness, he has the right idea. We do need fibre to socket cabling, and we need it sooner rather than later. If South Korea could do it 15 years ago, we should be able to in less than 15 years from now.

    But if he doesn't provide the resources to do it quickly, his target is meaningless.

    (I'm also baffled by these experts who think 5G will be easier than cabling in the Highlands of Scotland. Have they ever tried to make a phone call in Fort Augustus?)
    So, DSL.

    You have DSL, I suspect.

    And how DSL works is that the wire that runs between your house and (at the least) your local wiring cabinet is divided into two frequency bands. One is the regular frequencies your voice uses when you're talking. The rest is used for data. But this process of sectioning off certain frequencies for data and for voice is incredibly inefficient. It means that between you and your local exchange your voice is being carried as an inefficient analog signal, and then converted to digital, and then converted back again at the other end. And you have to make sure there are big frequency "gaps" to avoid cross-contamination.

    If we simply got rid of the analog portion of the network, put ethernet sockets in homes, then we could massively simplify our networks, increase speeds dramatically, and do this all without digging up the streets to take fibre the last 100 yards. (We'd still want to do the digging up in dense urban areas... but in most towns and suburbia... why bother? Using the full frequency of twisted pair over 100 yards gets you about 2gig of bandwidth today, and that's only going to increase over time.)
    Isn't this the Fibre to Cabinet solution that BT and others already roll out?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,215
    What we need is for a YouGov MRP to drop on 1st September. I imagine the big changes will challenge it but still better than a normal poll
This discussion has been closed.