I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
Alternatively he wants Parliament to be the pantomime villain that *stops* him doing No Deal that he was totally going to do and was totally going to work. Affecting not to be aware that they can do this seems on-brand with that.
I think there's a simpler explanation: his many flatterers persuaded him that the EU would capitulate in the face of his steadfastness and spunk. But Andrew Rawnsley probably gets it right: 'Now ask yourself this: how likely are Europe’s leaders to make themselves look very stupid in order to make Boris Johnson look very clever?'
If the EU wants to avoid No Deal then very likely.
Even if they did, why would they bother given there is little evidence that Parliament would endorse any revised agreement?
Parliament voted to endorse the revised agreement once previously when it passed the Brady Amendment.
Since then a number of Labour MPs have indicated they want a deal too.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
Is it me? Or is Cummings our generation's Rasputin?
If it really was too late to avoid No Deal, why would Cummings want to advertise that now? Surely waiting until September would make more sense, wouldn't it?
All very strange. Agreed.
FWIW Twitter is similarly and completely confused. Various smart, politically savvy people, that I trust and respect, have wildly different opinions.
Cummings is trying to impress upon any EU official who is not on the beach in August that HE MEANS BUSINESS!!!!
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
The Commons doesn't formally vote until after the Queen invites the new PM to Downing St, but the Queen doesn't invite the new PM prior to the old PM resigning or the new one demonstrating they have backing.
But a Government has to be formed before an Affirmative Vote can take place. There can be no Affirmative Confidence Vote in a Government which does not yet exist!
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after sheent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too.....
Well of c Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
I would say Labour are now the party of the inner cities, the Tories are the party of the rural areas and Labour and the Tories fight it out in the suburbs and the Tories and LDs fight it out in market and spa towns.
Boris will be certainly damned if he doesn't deliver Brexit on 31st October which would be a gift to Farage and Corbyn but provided he does commit to deliver it he will be re elected as it will almost certainly require an autumn general election for Boris to get a mandate for No Deal Brexit anyway
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’s almost the opposite of what’s happening here in West Oxfordshire.
The towns (Witney, Chipping Norton) are becoming solid Labour. The affluent villages are swinging very strongly Lib Dem.
The Conservatives are hanging on thanks to the dwindling number of uber-rural villages and poor, neglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
You do understand that West Oxfordshire is very much NOT typical UK?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Jesus wept!
Doesn't change a thing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
It's up to the Queen.
But what's absolutely certain is that if someone is asked to form a government, but fails to win the vote of confidence, then they are prime minister - not Boris Johnson. They will choose the date of the election, not Johnson. They can ask the EU for an extension if they choose.
Absolutely, if someone is asked to form a government. Which is a big if.
Precedence is that people aren't asked until the Queen knows they can command a majority - and there has been no example of a sitting PM in this country being sacked by the Queen.
The Gough Whitlam precedence is a very bad example to give and built up republican feeling in Australia. It was a major bone for the pro-republican side. I don't think for one second Her Majesty will do that prior to it being required. She will stay impartial unless or until the existing PM resigns or the Commons does its job and chooses a successor.
The Tories really don’t want to fight an election in the middle of a no deal Brexit. They would be far better off scheduling it beforehand. Remember Johnson doesn’t want to be PM to deliver Brexit. He wants to deliver Brexit to become/remain PM. There is no benefit to him in ensuring a chaotic no deal Brexit if the consequence is that he gets hammered in an election as it is happening...
Actually based on Comres yesterday No Deal in the middle of a general election campaign is the only way to ensure a Tory majority for Boris
Absolutely meaningless unless you believe that no deal will be largely benign, and/or the real world effects of it happening will have no impact on voting intention.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
Is it me? Or is Cummings our generation's Rasputin?
He certainly looks like he may have a large wart on his penis.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Jesus wept!
Doesn't change a thing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
It's up to the Queen.
But what's absolutely certain is that if someone is asked to form a government, but fails to win the vote of confidence, then they are prime minister - not Boris Johnson. They will choose the date of the election, not Johnson. They can ask the EU for an extension if they choose.
So your logic is:
i) Boris loses VONC - he ceases to be PM ii) Corbyn loses VONC - he continues to be PM
I've got that right?
I think your flaw is that Corbyn doesn't become PM until its clear he won't lose a VONC. Brown lost an election and continued as PM until it was clear his replacement could command the Commons.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
The Commons doesn't formally vote until after the Queen invites the new PM to Downing St, but the Queen doesn't invite the new PM prior to the old PM resigning or the new one demonstrating they have backing.
But a Government has to be formed before an Affirmative Vote can take place. There can be no Affirmative Confidence Vote in a Government which does not yet exist!
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
Even then unlikely as Labour MPs from Leave seats would be unlikely to back that
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
Is it me? Or is Cummings our generation's Rasputin?
He certainly looks like he may have a large wart on his penis.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
Is it me? Or is Cummings our generation's Rasputin?
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Jesus wept!
Doesn't change a thing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
It's up to the Queen.
But what's absolutely certain is that if someone is asked to form a government, but fails to win the vote of confidence, then they are prime minister - not Boris Johnson. They will choose the date of the election, not Johnson. They can ask the EU for an extension if they choose.
So your logic is:
i) Boris loses VONC - he ceases to be PM ii) Corbyn loses VONC - he continues to be PM
I've got that right?
Corbyn might only be PM for a few days , but during that short period could ask for an Extension from the EU.
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
The Tories really don’t want to fight an election in the middle of a no deal Brexit. They would be far better off scheduling it beforehand. Remember Johnson doesn’t want to be PM to deliver Brexit. He wants to deliver Brexit to become/remain PM. There is no benefit to him in ensuring a chaotic no deal Brexit if the consequence is that he gets hammered in an election as it is happening...
Actually based on Comres yesterday No Deal in the middle of a general election campaign is the only way to ensure a Tory majority for Boris
Absolutely meaningless unless you believe that no deal will be largely benign, and/or the real world effects of it happening will have no impact on voting intention.
Not meaningless at all, especially as No Deal would likely happen in the middle of an autumn general election before any negative effects had time to really filter through and with Leave voters in full 'deliver Brexit and respect the will of the people' mode
This makes it clear that: 1. If the PM is VONC'd, he remains PM while parties seek to indicate that a majority are ready to support new PM X. 2. The Queen only calls on X when this is clear. 3. The PM is not allowed to undertake any action with long-term consequences during this period: he is in a caretaker role. 4. There is no procedural basis for how the majority support for X emerges - it's seen as a political process, e.g. by parties forming a majority agreeing to recommend X. 5. If no agreement is reached withi 14 days, and the VONC is not reversed, an election follows automatically. The PM decides the exact date (but cannot do anything significant while waiting for it).
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Jesus wept!
Doesn't change a thing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
It's up to the Queen.
But what's absolutely certain is that if someone is asked to form a government, but fails to win the vote of confidence, then they are prime minister - not Boris Johnson. They will choose the date of the election, not Johnson. They can ask the EU for an extension if they choose.
So your logic is:
i) Boris loses VONC - he ceases to be PM ii) Corbyn loses VONC - he continues to be PM
I've got that right?
I think your flaw is that Corbyn doesn't become PM until its clear he won't lose a VONC. Brown lost an election and continued as PM until it was clear his replacement could command the Commons.
No. Johnson ceases to be PM if the Queen wishes to ask Corbyn to form a government.
The same for Corbyn. He continues to be PM unless the Queen wants to ask a third person to form a government.
The Tories really don’t want to fight an election in the middle of a no deal Brexit. They would be far better off scheduling it beforehand. Remember Johnson doesn’t want to be PM to deliver Brexit. He wants to deliver Brexit to become/remain PM. There is no benefit to him in ensuring a chaotic no deal Brexit if the consequence is that he gets hammered in an election as it is happening...
Actually based on Comres yesterday No Deal in the middle of a general election campaign is the only way to ensure a Tory majority for Boris
Absolutely meaningless unless you believe that no deal will be largely benign, and/or the real world effects of it happening will have no impact on voting intention.
When Blair was in charge, there was a fuel strike - some kind of protest by tanker drivers over the size of fluffy dice on the windscreen, I forget the details.
Within days panic had swept the nation and iirc it was the only time in Blair's entire administration when the Tories went ahead.
The whole thing lasted, what a couple of weeks.
Imagine how we will be in November, with food shortages, lambs burning in fields, SMEs going tits up, business owners crying on news at 10...
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle of to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Which, of course, might be precisely what Boris wants, so he can then win the following GE on the back of national/Brexity outrage.
Our country has turned into a multilayered psychological kidnap thriller mixed with the 8D chess from Star Trek.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle of to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Don't forget to schedule the election for after Oct 31st to really drop the Tories in it.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Jesus wept!
Doesn't change a thing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
It's up to the Queen.
But what's absolutely certain is that if someone is asked to form a government, but fails to win the vote of confidence, then they are prime minister - not Boris Johnson. They will choose the date of the election, not Johnson. They can ask the EU for an extension if they choose.
So your logic is:
i) Boris loses VONC - he ceases to be PM ii) Corbyn loses VONC - he continues to be PM
I've got that right?
Corbyn might only be PM for a few days , but during that short period could ask for an Extension from the EU.
He wouldn't be asked to be PM until it was clear he could command the confidence of the house - see the Brown/Cameron hand over.
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after sheent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too.....
Well of c Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
I would say Labour are now the party of the inner cities, the Tories are the party of the rural areas and Labour and the Tories fight it out in the suburbs and the Tories and LDs fight it out in market and spa towns.
Boris will be certainly damned if he doesn't deliver Brexit on 31st October which would be a gift to Farage and Corbyn but provided he does commit to deliver it he will be re elected as it will almost certainly require an autumn general election for Boris to get a mandate for No Deal Brexit anyway
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’s almost the opposite of what’s happening here in West Oxfordshire.
The towns (Witney, Chipping Norton) are becoming solid Labour. The affluent villages are swinging very strongly Lib Dem.
The Conservatives are hanging on thanks to the dwindling number of uber-rural villages and poor, neglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
You do understand that West Oxfordshire is very much NOT typical UK?
I mean, Chipping Norton?? lol
So... the odd thing is that Chippy is fairly normal. Down to the kebab van in the market square.
Elisabeth Murdoch and Matthew Freud? Burford. Alex James? Kingham. David Cameron? Dean/Chadlington. Jeremy Clarkson? Chadlington. Rebekah Brooks? Sarsden.
None of them live in Chippy. Most of them are closer to Burford, Kingham or Charlbury. The whole Chipping Norton Set thing was a bit of a misnomer.
The Tories really don’t want to fight an election in the middle of a no deal Brexit. They would be far better off scheduling it beforehand. Remember Johnson doesn’t want to be PM to deliver Brexit. He wants to deliver Brexit to become/remain PM. There is no benefit to him in ensuring a chaotic no deal Brexit if the consequence is that he gets hammered in an election as it is happening...
Actually based on Comres yesterday No Deal in the middle of a general election campaign is the only way to ensure a Tory majority for Boris
Absolutely meaningless unless you believe that no deal will be largely benign, and/or the real world effects of it happening will have no impact on voting intention.
Not meaningless at all, especially as No Deal would likely happen in the middle of an autumn general election before any negative effects had time to really filter through and with Leave voters in full 'deliver Brexit and respect the will of the people' mode
Why do you assume negative effects wouldn’t have become apparent? If an election is scheduled post Oct 31st, effectively ensuring no deal happens, then the consequences will start to become apparent long before Oct 31st.
I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
I can't make Johnson's strategy add up. Since Johnson isn't stupid where his own interest is concerned, I believe he knows he's in a trap but doesn't know how to get out of it.
Grabbing vote share from the Brexit Party is the key objective to be a bigger party than any other. The problem is, the BP will always die harder. Johnson has to deliver something and they don't. As Farage and his ERG acolytes drive Johnson into ever more extreme Brexit positions, he gets deeper into a mess he can't get out of.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Jesus wept!
Doesn't change a thing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
It's up to the Queen.
But what's absolutely certain is that if someone is asked to form a government, but fails to win the vote of confidence, then they are prime minister - not Boris Johnson. They will choose the date of the election, not Johnson. They can ask the EU for an extension if they choose.
So your logic is:
i) Boris loses VONC - he ceases to be PM ii) Corbyn loses VONC - he continues to be PM
I've got that right?
I think your flaw is that Corbyn doesn't become PM until its clear he won't lose a VONC. Brown lost an election and continued as PM until it was clear his replacement could command the Commons.
No. Johnson ceases to be PM if the Queen wishes to ask Corbyn to form a government.
The same for Corbyn. He continues to be PM unless the Queen wants to ask a third person to form a government.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle of to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Don't forget to schedule the election for after Oct 31st to really drop the Tories in it.
Not sure it would, though, in that situation it's obviously the opposition and remainiac Tories who caused the delay, and if you don't like it then the solution is obviously to return a Tory...
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
The Commons doesn't formally vote until after the Queen invites the new PM to Downing St, but the Queen doesn't invite the new PM prior to the old PM resigning or the new one demonstrating they have backing.
But a Government has to be formed before an Affirmative Vote can take place. There can be no Affirmative Confidence Vote in a Government which does not yet exist!
I think people are getting too hung up on formal votes. The Queen and her staff will take soundings. It would have to be bloody clear that Jezza can form what would effectively be a Gov of National Unity in order for her to invite him over for tea and cakes. Otherwise a GE is sensible.
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after sheent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too.....
Well of course geographical concentration of vote helps parties under FPTP. The Conservatives have rural and suburban England while Labour has the towns and cities. Even at 15-20% Labour holds a swathe of seats but at 15-20% the Conservatives would have far fewer.
20% everywhere gets you the sum total of bugger all as the Alliance found out in 1983 and UKIP to an extent in 2015.
As for future prospects, you've been quite certain about this in the past - IF Boris fails to take the UK out of the EU on 31/10, BP will be re-energised as they were when May failed to deliver on 29/3. There is a substantial and growing minority that wants the UK out of the EU, no ifs, no buts, no maybes. The problem is whether in the event of significant economic dislocation, that coalition will remain solid or will it turn round and blame the Conservatives for making a mess of a No Deal exit (which would be unfair to a point but politics isn't fair as we know).
Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
I would say Labour are now thr No Deal Brexit anyway
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’s almost the opposite of what’s happening here in West Oxfordshire.
The towns (Witney, Chipping Norton) are becoming solid Labour. The affluent villages are swinging very strongly Lib Dem.
The Conservatives are hanging on thanks to the dwindling number of uber-rural villages and poor, neglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
The Tories won at least one of the Witney wards in May and 1 was Independent.
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after sheent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too.....
Well of c Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
I would say Labour are now the party of the inner cities, the Tories are the party of the rural areas and Labour and the Tories fight it out in the suburbs and the Tories and LDs fight it out in market and spa towns.
Boris will be certainly damned if he doesn't deliver Brexit on 31st October which would be a gift to Farage and Corbyn but provided he does commit to deliver it he will be re elected as it will almost certainly require an autumn general election for Boris to get a mandate for No Deal Brexit anyway
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’s almost the opposite of what’s happening here in West Oxfordshire.
The towns (Witney, Chipping Norton) are becoming solid Labour. The affluent villages are swinging very strongly Lib Dem.
The Conservatives are hanging on thanks to the dwindling number of uber-rural villages and poor, neglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
You do understand that West Oxfordshire is very much NOT typical UK?
I mean, Chipping Norton?? lol
So... the odd thing is that Chippy is fairly normal. Down to the kebab van in the market square.
Elisabeth Murdoch and Matthew Freud? Burford. Alex James? Kingham. David Cameron? Dean/Chadlington. Jeremy Clarkson? Chadlington. Rebekah Brooks? Sarsden.
None of them live in Chippy. Most of them are closer to Burford, Kingham or Charlbury. The whole Chipping Norton Set thing was a bit of a misnomer.
Sure. But I know West Oxfordshire quite well. And very lovely it is.
It is - chav towns apart - one of the most affluent corners of northwest Europe. Not very representative.
This makes it clear that: 1. If the PM is VONC'd, he remains PM while parties seek to indicate that a majority are ready to support new PM X. 2. The Queen only calls on X when this is clear. 3. The PM is not allowed to undertake any action with long-term consequences during this period: he is in a caretaker role. 4. There is no procedural basis for how the majority support for X emerges - it's seen as a political process, e.g. by parties forming a majority agreeing to recommend X. 5. If no agreement is reached withi 14 days, and the VONC is not reversed, an election follows automatically. The PM decides the exact date (but cannot do anything significant while waiting for it).
Thank you for clarifying.
I expect there would be a heck of a row over whether 'asking the EU for an extension' counted as 'something significant with long term consequences'.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
Not true - Cons get a chance to put forward another PM first.
Queen ain’t asking Jezza to open a can of beans.
There’s no priority on who gets the next chance. But:
1. If someone looks like they could command the Commons’ confidence, they’ll get the chance in the 14 days; and
2. The Commons has 14 days to take actions of its own.
This is correct.
The idea someone will immediately be asked is a nonsense, that has never happened in our history. Thatcher wasn't asked in 1979.
You do realise that before the FTPA this situation never arose, because parliament would be dissolved?
Jesus wept!
Doesn't change a thing.
If there is a VONC then Boris remains in place, unless or until a new PM can command the Commons. If a new PM can then HMQ calls upon them but she won't do so [and Boris won't resign] until that is demonstrated.
It's up to the Queen.
But what's absolutely certain is that if someone is asked to form a government, but fails to win the vote of confidence, then they are prime minister - not Boris Johnson. They will choose the date of the election, not Johnson. They can ask the EU for an extension if they choose.
So your logic is:
i) Boris loses VONC - he ceases to be PM ii) Corbyn loses VONC - he continues to be PM
I've got that right?
I think your flaw is that Corbyn doesn't become PM until its clear he won't lose a VONC. Brown lost an election and continued as PM until it was clear his replacement could command the Commons.
No. Johnson ceases to be PM if the Queen wishes to ask Corbyn to form a government.
The same for Corbyn. He continues to be PM unless the Queen wants to ask a third person to form a government.
There always has to be a PM. Remember?
Yes but you've not said why the Queen would ask Corbyn to form a government when he can't command the House.
Grabbing vote share from the Brexit Party is the key objective to be a bigger party than any other. The problem is, the BP will always die harder. Johnson has to deliver something and they don't. As Farage and his ERG acolytes drive Johnson into ever more extreme Brexit positions, he gets deeper into a mess he can't get out of.
I used to think that Boris was aiming for the May deal dressed up with Churchiullian rhetoric, but he seems to have deliberately painted himself into a corner by making an impossible demand and refusing to even talk unless it's conceded. So presumably he actually wants No Deal with the EU and Parliament as the pantomime villains.
I can't make Johnson's strategy add up. Since Johnson isn't stupid where his own interest is concerned, I believe he knows he's in a trap but doesn't know how to get out of it.
Grabbing vote share from the Brexit Party is the key objective to be a bigger party than any other. The problem is, the BP will always die harder. Johnson has to deliver something and they don't. As Farage and his ERG acolytes drive Johnson into ever more extreme Brexit positions, he gets deeper into a mess he can't get out of.
Yes. But you are forgetting he got to be PM (aka World King), so the rest is mere, annoying detail.
Grabbing vote share from the Brexit Party is the key objective to be a bigger party than any other. The problem is, the BP will always die harder. Johnson has to deliver something and they don't. As Farage and his ERG acolytes drive Johnson into ever more extreme Brexit positions, he gets deeper into a mess he can't get out of.
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after sheent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too.....
Well of course geographical concentration of vote helps parties under FPTP. The Conservatives have rural and suburban England while Labour has the towns and cities. Even at 15-20% Labour holds a swathe of seats but at 15-20% the Conservatives would have far fewer.
20% everywhere gets you the sum total of bugger all as the Alliance found out in 1983 and UKIP to an extent in 2015.
As for future prospects, you've been quite certain about this in the past - IF Boris fails to take the UK out of the EU on 31/10, BP will be re-energised as they were when May failed to deliver on 29/3. There is a substantial and growing minority that wants the UK out of the EU, no ifs, no buts, no maybes.
Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’s almost the opposite of what’s happening here in West Oxfordshire.
The towns (Witney, Chipping Norton) are becoming solid Labour. The affluent villages are swinging very strongly Lib Dem.
The Conservatives are hanging on thanks to the dwindling number of uber-rural villages and poor, neglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
The Tories won at least one of the Witney wards in May and 1 was Independent.
Witney West is Conservative for now. Richard Langridge took a seat in North on an anti-development ticket. That doesn’t mask the massive Con->Lab swing in Witney. Believe me - I live here and know the people; West Oxfordshire is going NOC in a couple of years.
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
The Commorating they have backing.
But a Government has to be formed before an Affirmative Vote can take place. There can be no Affirmative Confidence Vote in a Government which does not yet exist!
I think people are getting too hung up on formal votes. The Queen and her staff will take soundings. It would have to be bloody clear that Jezza can form what would effectively be a Gov of National Unity in order for her to invite him over for tea and cakes. Otherwise a GE is sensible.
Indeed. I think my point below is valid.
It will come down to whether and how much Corbyn is prepared to compromise his intrinsic beliefs. Will he offer an extension, a new referendum and a swift general election? If he does, then the House would probably support him, through gritted teeth.
But this is Corbyn we're talking about. A grizzled old fool who couldn't cope with a polytechnic education, and who hasn't changed an opinion in 40 years.
My Christ. The fate of the nation will depend on Magic Grandpa.
Over the last two days my wife and I have busied ourselves in our garden and kept upto date with the cricket and sport generally
I have not been able to post much as I relaxed and forgot about Brexit. After all there is little my one vote can do to change things otherwise we would have left under TM deal
However, reading the more recent posts my impression is that we are discussing more and more novel conspiracy theories and if I was to be impolite, becomimg deranged
I comfort myself with the fact there is so much to enjoy that is not political and share with considerable understanding my son in law and families agonising decision to place their mother in dementia care, as her husband and carer is not at well.
There are more important things than constant aggravation
This makes it clear that: 1. If the PM is VONC'd, he remains PM while parties seek to indicate that a majority are ready to support new PM X. 2. The Queen only calls on X when this is clear. 3. The PM is not allowed to undertake any action with long-term consequences during this period: he is in a caretaker role. 4. There is no procedural basis for how the majority support for X emerges - it's seen as a political process, e.g. by parties forming a majority agreeing to recommend X. 5. If no agreement is reached withi 14 days, and the VONC is not reversed, an election follows automatically. The PM decides the exact date (but cannot do anything significant while waiting for it).
Thanks. That's interesting. For example: " If, following a vote of no confidence, there is a person who could clearly command the confidence of the House, the Cabinet Manual makes clear the Prime Minister is expected to resign. If there is not a clear alternative, the Cabinet Manual advises that “Where a range of different administrations could be formed, discussions may take place between political parties on who should form the next government.” It then refers the reader to the guidance on what should occur following a general election where no party wins a majority of seats."
The Tories really don’t want to fight an election in the middle of a no deal Brexit. They would be far better off scheduling it beforehand. Remember Johnson doesn’t want to be PM to deliver Brexit. He wants to deliver Brexit to become/remain PM. There is no benefit to him in ensuring a chaotic no deal Brexit if the consequence is that he gets hammered in an election as it is happening...
Actually based on Comres yesterday No Deal in the middle of a general election campaign is the only way to ensure a Tory majority for Boris
Absolutely meaningless unless you believe that no deal will be largely benign, and/or the real world effects of it happening will have no impact on voting intention.
Not meaningless at all, especially as No Deal would likely happen in the middle of an autumn general election before any negative effects had time to really filter through and with Leave voters in full 'deliver Brexit and respect the will of the people' mode
Why do you assume negative effects wouldn’t have become apparent? If an election is scheduled post Oct 31st, effectively ensuring no deal happens, then the consequences will start to become apparent long before Oct 31st.
No they won't, not significantly before October 31st and in any case even if some negative impacts do occur they will not change the trend which would be a Leave vote largely united behind the Tories and the Remain vote split between LDs and Labour, Leavers as the polls show put sovereignty first even with some economic difficulties, unlike Remainers
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
As Parliament has so conspicuously demonstrated over the past 2 years.
That Telegraph story is fascinating. Has Cummings already outsmarted the Remainers? It looks like it.
He’s cleverer than that. The content of the story is not as important as the reason why it is there. It’s all to goad the anti-no-dealers into action and make sure Bozo is headed off before he gets to no deal. He wants to be the victim of a Commons ambush as it’s the only way out of the disastrous position he has put himself in. An election after his being stopped from leaving by others is his only possible escape.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
“and the queen asks Corbyn to form a government”
Why would she do that? What evidence is there that he could command a majority in the house?
There would be two weeks of inconclusive faffing around then a GE called with Boris still as PM
Because nobody could provide "evidence" until there is a floor vote. Corbyn would usually be asked because most likely it will be Labour motion of No Confidence.
Of course. That's the way it works. A new government has to be formed before there is a confidence vote. Someone has to be asked to form a government before a government can be formed. When someone is asked to form a government, they become prime minister. It's always been the case.
No its not always been the case, someone posted a while back a 20th century example of the PM to be being asked to demonstrate they could form a government prior to being appointed.
In the 21st century Brown only resigned and Cameron was only appointed after he demonstrated he could form a government.
If there is a VONC I expect Boris like Brown would refuse to resign until after an alternative has been demonstrated to be viable. FTPA doesn't say he has to resign.
It's up to the Queen whether he remains prime minister. Have you ever heard of Gough Whitlam?
The Commons doesn't formally vote until after the Queen invites the new PM to Downing St, but the Queen doesn't invite the new PM prior to the old PM resigning or the new one demonstrating they have backing.
But a Government has to be formed before an Affirmative Vote can take place. There can be no Affirmative Confidence Vote in a Government which does not yet exist!
Yes, but the Government won't be formed until the Commons indicates it will back it.
The sequence will need to be:
Stage 1: VONC Boris. Stage 2: Indicate willing to agree to Successor Stage 3: HMQ calls upon Successor Stage 4: Affirmative Vote in Successor.
People seem to think Stage 2 will be missed altogether.
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
This makes it clear that: 1. If the PM is VONC'd, he remains PM while parties seek to indicate that a majority are ready to support new PM X. 2. The Queen only calls on X when this is clear. 3. The PM is not allowed to undertake any action with long-term consequences during this period: he is in a caretaker role. 4. There is no procedural basis for how the majority support for X emerges - it's seen as a political process, e.g. by parties forming a majority agreeing to recommend X. 5. If no agreement is reached withi 14 days, and the VONC is not reversed, an election follows automatically. The PM decides the exact date (but cannot do anything significant while waiting for it).
Thank you for clarifying.
I expect there would be a heck of a row over whether 'asking the EU for an extension' counted as 'something significant with long term consequences'.
But Boris wouldn't be asking for an extension. That's the whole point of Cummings's ruse. Boris would schedule the GE for after 31 October thus ensuring No deal.
That Telegraph story is fascinating. Has Cummings already outsmarted the Remainers? It looks like it.
He’s cleverer than that. The content of the story is not as important as the reason why it is there. It’s all to goad the anti-no-dealers into action and make sure Bozo is headed off before he gets to no deal. He wants to be the victim of a Commons ambush as it’s the only way out of the disastrous position he has put himself in. An election after his being stopped from leaving by others is his only possible escape.
That is how i have read things so far. Set up it up as the "establishment" stopping brexit, then going for a GE as the only one who can deliver it.
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after sheent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too.....
Well of course geographical concentration of vote helps parties under FPTP. The Conservatives have rural and suburban England while Labour has the towns and cities. Even at 15-20% Labour holds a swathe of seats but at 15-20% the Conservatives would have far fewer.
20% everywhere gets you the sum total of bugger all as the Alliance found out in 1983 and UKIP to an extent in 2015.
As for future prospects, you've been quite certain about this in the past - IF Boris fails to take the UK out of the EU on 31/10, BP will be re-energised as they were when May failed to deliver on 29/3. There is a substantial and growing minority that wants the UK out of the EU, no ifs, no buts, no maybes.
Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’eglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
The Tories won at least one of the Witney wards in May and 1 was Independent.
Witney West is Conservative for now. Richard Langridge took a seat in North on an anti-development ticket. That doesn’t mask the massive Con->Lab swing in Witney. Believe me - I live here and know the people; West Oxfordshire is going NOC in a couple of years.
So still not going Labour then, so the original point remains, rural areas are largely Tory and market towns largely LD and Tory battlegrounds (even with a few Labour exceptions like Chipping Norton)
That Telegraph story is fascinating. Has Cummings already outsmarted the Remainers? It looks like it.
He’s cleverer than that. The content of the story is not as important as the reason why it is there. It’s all to goad the anti-no-dealers into action and make sure Bozo is headed off before he gets to no deal. He wants to be the victim of a Commons ambush as it’s the only way out of the disastrous position he has put himself in. An election after his being stopped from leaving by others is his only possible escape.
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after sheent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too.....
Well of c Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
I would say Labour are now the party of the inner cities, the Tories are the party of the rural areas and Labour and the Tories fight it out in the suburbs and the Tories and LDs fight it out in market and spa towns.
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’s almost the opposite of what’s happening here in West Oxfordshire.
The towns (Witney, Chipping Norton) are becoming solid Labour. The affluent villages are swinging very strongly Lib Dem.
The Conservatives are hanging on thanks to the dwindling number of uber-rural villages and poor, neglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
You do understand that West Oxfordshire is very much NOT typical UK?
I mean, Chipping Norton?? lol
So... the odd thing is that Chippy is fairly normal. Down to the kebab van in the market square.
Elisabeth Murdoch and Matthew Freud? Burford. Alex James? Kingham. David Cameron? Dean/Chadlington. Jeremy Clarkson? Chadlington. Rebekah Brooks? Sarsden.
None of them live in Chippy. Most of them are closer to Burford, Kingham or Charlbury. The whole Chipping Norton Set thing was a bit of a misnomer.
Sure. But I know West Oxfordshire quite well. And very lovely it is.
It is - chav towns apart - one of the most affluent corners of northwest Europe. Not very representative.
Totally. Not disagreeing with you on that.
I do find it interesting, though, that there is a significant belt of West Oxfordshire-like districts which is turning LD. Basically from the Chilterns, across Oxfordshire, to the Gloucestershire Cotswolds and Cheltenham. It’s potentially a new heartland of formerly Conservative territory to replace the South-West.
This makes it clear that: 1. If the PM is VONC'd, he remains PM while parties seek to indicate that a majority are ready to support new PM X. 2. The Queen only calls on X when this is clear. 3. The PM is not allowed to undertake any action with long-term consequences during this period: he is in a caretaker role. 4. There is no procedural basis for how the majority support for X emerges - it's seen as a political process, e.g. by parties forming a majority agreeing to recommend X. 5. If no agreement is reached withi 14 days, and the VONC is not reversed, an election follows automatically. The PM decides the exact date (but cannot do anything significant while waiting for it).
Thank you for clarifying.
I expect there would be a heck of a row over whether 'asking the EU for an extension' counted as 'something significant with long term consequences'.
I don't think that would be in doubt...but if he'd already asked, the question is whether the clock would stop when he lost the VONC. I don't think it would, so MPs would need to actually line up behind Corbyn or someone else with the specific mandate of agreeing with the EU to suspend the process while an election is called to clarify matters. They would, I believe, be happy to do so, and having taken the plunge of appointing a new PM, the House would clearly approve it too.
I don't think that the current House would have a majority for any long-term candidate - most non-Labour people wouldn't vote for Corbyn, and most Labour people wouldn't vote for some interim figure. But Corbyn could probably get a brief mandate on condition that he did nothing else but stop the clock and call an election, thereby obviating fears that he'd introduce a Marxist programme or whatever.
So Cummings is sort of right, but only if Parliament doesn't actually appoint a successor.
That Telegraph story is fascinating. Has Cummings already outsmarted the Remainers? It looks like it.
He’s cleverer than that. The content of the story is not as important as the reason why it is there. It’s all to goad the anti-no-dealers into action and make sure Bozo is headed off before he gets to no deal. He wants to be the victim of a Commons ambush as it’s the only way out of the disastrous position he has put himself in. An election after his being stopped from leaving by others is his only possible escape.
That's certainly one valid take. Which I have considered myself.
The thing is, even if it works, what does Boris do then? He would have to go into the GE with a definite Brexit policy and strategy. And what the F would that be? What can he put in the manifesto which doesn't split and destroy his party? And lose the election?
Cummings will surely have gamed THIS as well, which is why I am not sure this "bluff" is really a bluff.
I wonder if they really do think No Deal would be manageable.
People are misunderstanding the FTPA. If there is a successful VONC tabled by the LOTO in the exact format laid down in the act then a general election would be triggered unless that VONC was rescinded within 14 days. Assuming that doesn't happen then the election is triggered with BJohnson still PM leading his party into the country. There may or may not be talk on trying for form an alternative government but Johnson can just sit tight and wait for the election to happen.
If opposition parties fail to prevent no deal, then they should have to answer the question as to why they thought their stance that “no deal is better than a Tory deal” was justified. Doubt they will though.
That Telegraph story is fascinating. Has Cummings already outsmarted the Remainers? It looks like it.
He’s cleverer than that. The content of the story is not as important as the reason why it is there. It’s all to goad the anti-no-dealers into action and make sure Bozo is headed off before he gets to no deal. He wants to be the victim of a Commons ambush as it’s the only way out of the disastrous position he has put himself in. An election after his being stopped from leaving by others is his only possible escape.
I think you have it right.
Which is why Nabavi has repeatedly made the point about the stupidity of the Oct 31st deadline. Boris has tied his own hands.
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They were getting that under May and after sheent and Essex, the North and Midlands and South Wales
Ironically the best hope for Farage is Boris extends again or a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP and LDs holds EUref2 which narrowly backs Remain which really would give the Brexit Party a chance of picking up lots of Tory Leave seats again as well as a few Labour Leave seats too.....
Well of course geographical concentration of vote helps parties under FPTP. The Conservatives have rural and suburban England while Labour has the towns and cities. Even at 15-20% Labour holds a swathe of seats but at 15-20% the Conservatives would have far fewer.
20% everywhere gets you the sum total of bugger all as the Alliance found out in 1983 and UKIP to an extent in 2015.
As for future prospects, you've been quite certain about this in the past - IF Boris fails to take the UK out of the EU on 31/10, BP will be re-energised as they were when May failed to deliver on 29/3. There is a substantial and growing minority that wants the UK out of the EU, no ifs, no buts, no maybes.
Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
Despite all the BS that Welsh journalist guy was tweeting on the night, I hear that the samples from the count showed the Tories ahead in the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’eglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
The Tories won at least one of the Witney wards in May and 1 was Independent.
Witney West is Conservative for now. Richard Langridge took a seat in North on an anti-development ticket. That doesn’t mask the massive Con->Lab swing in Witney. Believe me - I live here and know the people; West Oxfordshire is going NOC in a couple of years.
So still not going Labour then, so the original point remains, rural areas are largely Tory and market towns largely LD and Tory battlegrounds (even with a few Labour exceptions like Chipping Norton)
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
Is it me? Or is Cummings our generation's Rasputin?
People are misunderstanding the FTPA. If there is a successful VONC tabled by the LOTO in the exact format laid down in the act then a general election would be triggered unless that VONC was rescinded within 14 days. Assuming that doesn't happen then the election is triggered with BJohnson still PM leading his party into the country. There may or may not be talk on trying for form an alternative government but Johnson can just sit tight and wait for the election to happen.
Exactly! This is what most of us have been saying.
If opposition parties fail to prevent no deal, then they should have to answer the question as to why they thought their stance that “no deal is better than a Tory deal” was justified. Doubt they will though.
Considering every single opposition party voted three times to keep No Deal on the table, there's little reason to sympathise with them if No Deal happens.
People are misunderstanding the FTPA. If there is a successful VONC tabled by the LOTO in the exact format laid down in the act then a general election would be triggered unless that VONC was rescinded within 14 days. Assuming that doesn't happen then the election is triggered with BJohnson still PM leading his party into the country. There may or may not be talk on trying for form an alternative government but Johnson can just sit tight and wait for the election to happen.
It's not a question of "rescinding" the VONC. It's a question of passing a vote of confidence in that or another government.
If another government is formed, then Johnson is no longer PM, even if something goes wrong and the vote of confidence doesn't pass.
People can argue about the circumstances in which another prime minister would be appointed, but if that happens Johnson will no longer be PM.
This makes it clear that: 1. If the PM is VONC'd, he remains PM while parties seek to indicate that a majority are ready to support new PM X. 2. The Queen only calls on X when this is clear. 3. The PM is not allowed to undertake any action with long-term consequences during this period: he is in a caretaker role. 4. There is no procedural basis for how the majority support for X emerges - it's seen as a political process, e.g. by parties forming a majority agreeing to recommend X. 5. If no agreement is reached withi 14 days, and the VONC is not reversed, an election follows automatically. The PM decides the exact date (but cannot do anything significant while waiting for it).
Does 3. include doing nothing to move away from the settled will of Parliment, as expressed when MPs agreed to support the Article 50 notice? The one where the UK leaves unless we take some alternative action with, er, long-term consequences?
People are misunderstanding the FTPA. If there is a successful VONC tabled by the LOTO in the exact format laid down in the act then a general election would be triggered unless that VONC was rescinded within 14 days. Assuming that doesn't happen then the election is triggered with BJohnson still PM leading his party into the country. There may or may not be talk on trying for form an alternative government but Johnson can just sit tight and wait for the election to happen.
FTPA seems clear. There has to be confirmation confidence vote within 14 days in whatever rag tag and bob tail alternative government has been cobbled together:
"If this motion is carried, there is a 14 calendar day period in which to form a new Government, confirmed in office by a resolution as follows:
“That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government” "
The reason Farage tends to be rubbish at FPTP is you need about 20%+ to get significant numbers of seats under FPTP.
They weretoo.....
Well of c Boris will be damned if he doesn't deliver a 31/10 Brexit but will he be damned if he does?
I would say Labour are noand spa towns.
Despite an the rural polling districts with the LibDems winning most of the towns. Which is what you would expect.
Interestingly that’s almost the opposite of what’s happening here in West Oxfordshire.
The towns (Witney, Chipping Norton) are becoming solid Labour. The affluent villages are swinging very strongly Lib Dem.
The Conservatives are hanging on thanks to the dwindling number of uber-rural villages and poor, neglected, military-dominated Carterton. It won’t last.
You do understand that West Oxfordshire is very much NOT typical UK?
I mean, Chipping Norton?? lol
So... the odd thing is that Chippy is fairly normal. Down to the kebab van in the market square.
Elisabeth Murdoch and Matthew Freud? Burford. Alex James? Kingham. David Cameron? Dean/Chadlington. Jeremy Clarkson? Chadlington. Rebekah Brooks? Sarsden.
None of them live in Chippy. Most of them are closer to Burford, Kingham or Charlbury. The whole Chipping Norton Set thing was a bit of a misnomer.
Sure. But I know West Oxfordshire quite well. And very lovely it is.
It is - chav towns apart - one of the most affluent corners of northwest Europe. Not very representative.
Totally. Not disagreeing with you on that.
I do find it interesting, though, that there is a significant belt of West Oxfordshire-like districts which is turning LD. Basically from the Chilterns, across Oxfordshire, to the Gloucestershire Cotswolds and Cheltenham. It’s potentially a new heartland of formerly Conservative territory to replace the South-West.
You should see the FT map of European regions which will take the biggest hit from Brexit. The worst affected English region is pretty much exactly the area you describe.
We really do need a total realignment of British politics, and some kind of AV. Whether you are a Leaver or Remainer, Brexit has proved that our crumbling system is fucked, and we need a clean slate with a new method of electing our tribunes, to better represent us all.
Oh dear. He hasn't read the text of the FTPA, has he?
If Johnson is VONCed and the Queen asks Corbyn to form a government, Corbyn is PM. Even if he doesn't succeed in winning a confidence vote, unless someone else is asked to form a government, he'll remain so until the election. Not only can he decide the date of the election, but he can also go to Brussels and ask for an extension!
The Queen would not ask Corbyn to form a government if Johnson is VONCed unless it is clear he can command a majority in the House, which would require LD, CUK, SNP, PC, Lady Hermon as well as Labour support and at least 1 more Tory MP to defect eg Lee and then back Corbyn too.
That is extremely unlikely so it would be an autumn general election instead
Hmm.
There is perhaps one way it could happen (but IANAL). What if Corbyn promised 1, a Brexit extension to enable 2. a new referendum followed by 3. a new general election?
That might be enough to get him the confidence of the House, and into Number 10. Briefly.
Brexit would be delayed then probably cancelled.
Is it me? Or is Cummings our generation's Rasputin?
Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings.
I really like that analogy: thank you
Wormtongue worked to undermine his boss for an evil empire which threatened to take over the green and pleasant land.
Are you suggesting DC is secretly working for the EU ?
People are misunderstanding the FTPA. If there is a successful VONC tabled by the LOTO in the exact format laid down in the act then a general election would be triggered unless that VONC was rescinded within 14 days. Assuming that doesn't happen then the election is triggered with BJohnson still PM leading his party into the country. There may or may not be talk on trying for form an alternative government but Johnson can just sit tight and wait for the election to happen.
It's not a question of "rescinding" the VONC. It's a question of passing a vote of confidence in that or another government.
If another government is formed, then Johnson is no longer PM, even if something goes wrong and the vote of confidence doesn't pass.
People can argue about the circumstances in which another prime minister would be appointed, but if that happens Johnson will no longer be PM.
But a new government won't be formed prior to a majority being found. Johnson won't resign until a new majority is found to back an individual and HMQ won't sack a sitting PM prior to an election prior to the Commons agreeing a replacement.
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh come off it. Saying the House of Commons no longer has the power is nonsense. It clearly does have the power.
That Telegraph story is fascinating. Has Cummings already outsmarted the Remainers? It looks like it.
He’s cleverer than that. The content of the story is not as important as the reason why it is there. It’s all to goad the anti-no-dealers into action and make sure Bozo is headed off before he gets to no deal. He wants to be the victim of a Commons ambush as it’s the only way out of the disastrous position he has put himself in. An election after his being stopped from leaving by others is his only possible escape.
That's certainly one valid take. Which I have considered myself.
The thing is, even if it works, what does Boris do then? He would have to go into the GE with a definite Brexit policy and strategy. And what the F would that be? What can he put in the manifesto which doesn't split and destroy his party? And lose the election?
Cummings will surely have gamed THIS as well, which is why I am not sure this "bluff" is really a bluff.
I wonder if they really do think No Deal would be manageable.
Since the plan depends on all the ex ministers he has thoughtfully shoved onto the backbenches voting him down, the party is already split by the time the election arrives. It’s pretty much unavoidable now, in any scenario, including one where he actually goes for no deal (the resignations are all pre-promised, Big_G style).
The election platform would once again be leave, deal or no deal, and Bozo will hope that whatever extension has been forced upon him (he’ll be praying for a long one) actually gives time to go for an alternative deal. In effect it’ll be “leave”, since every party other than BXP Ltd. will by then be campaigning for PV/Remain.
Weirdly you could select the next Prime Minister on Twitter. If the Queen can see Corbyn, Swinson, Surgeon and 3 or 4 Tories have tweeted "Stop No Deal, put Ken Clarke at the wheel", it's not obvious that she needs to wait for a parliamentary vote saying that they'd support him in subsequent votes if she made him PM.
Grabbing vote share from the Brexit Party is the key objective to be a bigger party than any other. The problem is, the BP will always die harder. Johnson has to deliver something and they don't. As Farage and his ERG acolytes drive Johnson into ever more extreme Brexit positions, he gets deeper into a mess he can't get out of.
Bingo. You cannot out-Farage Farage.
You can with No Deal
[Chart]
The suggestion is that Johnson would win an election after a No Deal Brexit
Highly doubtful, I think. People won't necessarily look at the mess and say, I got it wrong about No Deal. They will see a government in total disarray with no answers to anything. We're already getting a taste of that. Johnson is being confronted with the consequences of No Deal and falls back on saying, actually we want a deal.
Election then No Deal Brexit with a sizeable majority would potentially give him 5 years. But he needs parliament's acceptance and he's still not certain to win that kind of majority
However, it seems there is a massive depth charge buried within the FTPA, which could be what Cummings (Rasputin) is on about:
"If a new Government cannot be formed within this time period, then dissolution is triggered. There is no provision for an extension of the 14 day period. Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown ."
Wow. Just Wow. Who wrote this crap????
Boris can breeze past 31st Oct unless Queen objects to the recommendation of the date?
People are misunderstanding the FTPA. If there is a successful VONC tabled by the LOTO in the exact format laid down in the act then a general election would be triggered unless that VONC was rescinded within 14 days. Assuming that doesn't happen then the election is triggered with BJohnson still PM leading his party into the country. There may or may not be talk on trying for form an alternative government but Johnson can just sit tight and wait for the election to happen.
It's not a question of "rescinding" the VONC. It's a question of passing a vote of confidence in that or another government.
If another government is formed, then Johnson is no longer PM, even if something goes wrong and the vote of confidence doesn't pass.
People can argue about the circumstances in which another prime minister would be appointed, but if that happens Johnson will no longer be PM.
But a new government won't be formed prior to a majority being found. Johnson won't resign until a new majority is found to back an individual and HMQ won't sack a sitting PM prior to an election prior to the Commons agreeing a replacement.
The Tories really don’t want to fight an election in the middle of a no deal Brexit. They would be far better off scheduling it beforehand. Remember Johnson doesn’t want to be PM to deliver Brexit. He wants to deliver Brexit to become/remain PM. There is no benefit to him in ensuring a chaotic no deal Brexit if the consequence is that he gets hammered in an election as it is happening...
Actually based on Comres yesterday No Deal in the middle of a general election campaign is the only way to ensure a Tory majority for Boris
Absolutely meaningless unless you believe that no deal will be largely benign, and/or the real world effects of it happening will have no impact on voting intention.
Not meaningless at all, especially as No Deal would likely happen in the middle of an autumn general election before any negative effects had time to really filter through and with Leave voters in full 'deliver Brexit and respect the will of the people' mode
Why do you assume negative effects wouldn’t have become apparent? If an election is scheduled post Oct 31st, effectively ensuring no deal happens, then the consequences will start to become apparent long before Oct 31st.
No they won't, not significantly before October 31st and in any case even if some negative impacts do occur they will not change the trend which would be a Leave vote largely united behind the Tories and the Remain vote split between LDs and Labour, Leavers as the polls show put sovereignty first even with some economic difficulties, unlike Remainers
So they say, but the whole point is that many no dealers flatly reject the idea that there will be significant economic or other consequences. They will need to experience an alternative reality to change their minds. And I think you underestimate how rapidly the effects could be felt. If an election is called in mid September to be scheduled post Oct 31st then that is a large amount of time for a currency crash, stockpiling, hike in fuel prices, shortfalls on the shelves to happen. If anything the negative effects could be exaggerated, making the timing of the election even worse.
You are extremely blasé if you think that might not have an effect on your polling figures.
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh come off it. Saying the House of Commons no longer has the power is nonsense. It clearly does have the power.
Whether it has the will is a different matter.
The article says they no longer have the power by forcing an election, which is correct.
They still have the power to elect an alternative but that is a different matter. Before now they had the power to force an election before Brexit, now they don't.
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh come off it. Saying the House of Commons no longer has the power is nonsense. It clearly does have the power.
However, it seems there is a massive depth charge buried within the FTPA, which could be what Cummings (Rasputin) is on about:
"If a new Government cannot be formed within this time period, then dissolution is triggered. There is no provision for an extension of the 14 day period. Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown ."
Wow. Just Wow. Who wrote this crap????
Boris can breeze past 31st Oct unless Queen objects to the recommendation of the date?
Or have I missed something?
That's the whole point of what Cummings is claiming, isn't it?
But it depends on no one else being asked to form a government.
This makes it clear that: 1. If the PM is VONC'd, he remains PM while parties seek to indicate that a majority are ready to support new PM X. 2. The Queen only calls on X when this is clear. 3. The PM is not allowed to undertake any action with long-term consequences during this period: he is in a caretaker role. 4. There is no procedural basis for how the majority support for X emerges - it's seen as a political process, e.g. by parties forming a majority agreeing to recommend X. 5. If no agreement is reached withi 14 days, and the VONC is not reversed, an election follows automatically. The PM decides the exact date (but cannot do anything significant while waiting for it).
Does 3. include doing nothing to move away from the settled will of Parliment, as expressed when MPs agreed to support the Article 50 notice? The one where the UK leaves unless we take some alternative action with, er, long-term consequences?
Technical point. Article 50 was not approved by the current Parliament. There used to be a constitutional principle that one parliament cannot bind it’s successors...
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would bac
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going backe danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh come off it. Saying the House of Commons no longer has the power is nonsense. It clearly does have the power.
Whether it has the will is a different matter.
The article says they no longer have the power by forcing an election, which is correct.
They still have the power to elect an alternative but that is a different matter. Before now they had the power to force an election before Brexit, now they don't.
UNLESS the EU goes mad and just extends without our permission! Hah! Can they do that? I think they can. Or can we veto their unilateral extension, as a departing EU member with residual voting rights?
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh come off it. Saying the House of Commons no longer has the power is nonsense. It clearly does have the power.
Whether it has the will is a different matter.
You're demonstrably losing the argument. So far.
You don't see that the House of Commons has to power to oust Boris Johnson and approve an alternative government? Which part of the process don't you understand?
Hint: "I don't think it will happen" is not a demonstration that something is impossible.
This makes it clear that: 1. If the PM is VONC'd, he remains PM while parties seek to indicate that a majority are ready to support new PM X. 2. The Queen only calls on X when this is clear. 3. The PM is not allowed to undertake any action with long-term consequences during this period: he is in a caretaker role. 4. There is no procedural basis for how the majority support for X emerges - it's seen as a political process, e.g. by parties forming a majority agreeing to recommend X. 5. If no agreement is reached withi 14 days, and the VONC is not reversed, an election follows automatically. The PM decides the exact date (but cannot do anything significant while waiting for it).
Does 3. include doing nothing to move away from the settled will of Parliment, as expressed when MPs agreed to support the Article 50 notice? The one where the UK leaves unless we take some alternative action with, er, long-term consequences?
Technical point. Article 50 was not approved by the current Parliament. There used to be a constitutional principle that one parliament cannot bind it’s successors...
The 31 October date to exit without a deal if no deal has yet been agreed and no extension has been agreed was endorsed by the current Parliament though. That is the current settled will of this Parliament.
However, it seems there is a massive depth charge buried within the FTPA, which could be what Cummings (Rasputin) is on about:
"If a new Government cannot be formed within this time period, then dissolution is triggered. There is no provision for an extension of the 14 day period. Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown ."
Wow. Just Wow. Who wrote this crap????
Boris can breeze past 31st Oct unless Queen objects to the recommendation of the date?
Or have I missed something?
That's the whole point of what Cummings is claiming, isn't it?
But it depends on no one else being asked to form a government.
Indeed, but why would anyone else be asked to form a government?
We are missing an obvious point here. There is literally no point VONC ing Boris without a replacement. Surely, during any VONC debate, potential replacements will be mooted? Of course Corbyn will think it should be him, but that seems implausible. The mood of the House can be tested during the debate itself. If the name of Ken Clarke or Starmer, the 2 most likely in my view, we will have a pretty good idea of their support already. We'll be at the last minute anyway. And the idea Corbyn could veto Starmer is ludicrous. Most Labour MPs would jump at the chance!
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would bac
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going backe danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh come off it. Saying the House of Commons no longer has the power is nonsense. It clearly does have the power.
Whether it has the will is a different matter.
The article says they no longer have the power by forcing an election, which is correct.
They still have the power to elect an alternative but that is a different matter. Before now they had the power to force an election before Brexit, now they don't.
UNLESS the EU goes mad and just extends without our permission! Hah! Can they do that? I think they can. Or can we veto their unilateral extension, as a departing EU member with residual voting rights?
WTAF. My brain hurts.
No they can't. An extension must be unanimously agreed by both the departing state and the remaining EU members.
We are missing an obvious point here. There is literally no point VONC ing Boris without a replacement. Surely, during any VONC debate, potential replacements will be mooted? Of course Corbyn will think it should be him, but that seems implausible. The mood of the House can be tested during the debate itself. If the name of Ken Clarke or Starmer, the 2 most likely in my view, we will have a pretty good idea of their support already. We'll be at the last minute anyway. And the idea Corbyn could veto Starmer is ludicrous. Most Labour MPs would jump at the chance!
It is time that Betfair put a 'Next PM' market back up.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh come off it. Saying the House of Commons no longer has the power is nonsense. It clearly does have the power.
Whether it has the will is a different matter.
You're demonstrably losing the argument. So far.
You don't see that the House of Commons has to power to oust Boris Johnson and approve an alternative government? Which part of the process don't you understand?
Hint: "I don't think it will happen" is not a demonstration that something is impossible.
It is impossible now to prevent Brexit by calling an election, which is what Cummings said.
Yes the Commons does have the power to approve an alternative government. That is a much higher hurdle for them to clear than just triggering an election.
The Tories really don’t want to fight an election in the middle of a no deal Brexit. They would be far better off scheduling it beforehand. Remember Johnson doesn’t want to be PM to deliver Brexit. He wants to deliver Brexit to become/remain PM. There is no benefit to him in ensuring a chaotic no deal Brexit if the consequence is that he gets hammered in an election as it is happening...
Actually based on Comres yesterday No Deal in the middle of a general election campaign is the only way to ensure a Tory majority for Boris
Absolutely meaningless unless you believe that no deal will be largely benign, and/or the real world effects of it happening will have no impact on voting intention.
Not meaningless at all, especially as No Deal would likely happen in the middle of an autumn general election before any negative effects had time to really filter through and with Leave voters in full 'deliver Brexit and respect the will of the people' mode
Why do you assume negative effects wouldn’t have become apparent? If an election is scheduled post Oct 31st, effectively ensuring no deal happens, then the consequences will start to become apparent long before Oct 31st.
No they won't, not siemainers
So they say, but the whole point is that many no dealers flatly reject the idea that there will be significant economic or other consequences. They will need to experience an alternative reality to change their minds. And I think you underestimate how rapidly the effects could be felt. If an election is called in mid September to be scheduled post Oct 31st then that is a large amount of time for a currency crash, stockpiling, hike in fuel prices, shortfalls on the shelves to happen. If anything the negative effects could be exaggerated, making the timing of the election even worse.
You are extremely blasé if you think that might not have an effect on your polling figures.
Diehard Remainers are extremely blasé if they think Leavers are not spitting blood at the contempt they have shown for their democratic vote to Leave the EU which they have still refused to respect. Diehard Remainers having refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement asked for No Deal and that is what Leavers will ensure they get.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would back an alternative so that the PM is replaced immediately. If the Commons indicates it will back an alternative the Queen will call them, until they do she is under no obligation to do so and I do not believe she will interfere in the political process prior to being obliged to do so.
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going back to Cumming's cumming plan: all parliament would have to do is agree on an immediate replacement for a VONCed Boris - some temporary neutral - who can then toddle off to Brussels and get an extension. We can then have our GE without the danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh come off it. Saying the House of Commons no longer has the power is nonsense. It clearly does have the power.
Whether it has the will is a different matter.
The article says they no longer have the power by forcing an election, which is correct.
They still have the power to elect an alternative but that is a different matter. Before now they had the power to force an election before Brexit, now they don't.
It depends on whether the Queen asks someone else to form a government before the 14 days is up. If she does, then Boris won't be PM any more.
We are missing an obvious point here. There is literally no point VONC ing Boris without a replacement. Surely, during any VONC debate, potential replacements will be mooted? Of course Corbyn will think it should be him, but that seems implausible. The mood of the House can be tested during the debate itself. If the name of Ken Clarke or Starmer, the 2 most likely in my view, we will have a pretty good idea of their support already. We'll be at the last minute anyway. And the idea Corbyn could veto Starmer is ludicrous. Most Labour MPs would jump at the chance!
It is time that Betfair put a 'Next PM' market back up.
Betfair already have a next prime minister market up. Corbyn is favourite with Swinson second favourite
UNLESS the EU goes mad and just extends without our permission! Hah! Can they do that? I think they can. Or can we veto their unilateral extension, as a departing EU member with residual voting rights?
WTAF. My brain hurts.
The EU can and probably will offer an extension, even if it's just a preparation for No Deal exit extension. If Johnson wants to do or die by October 31, he will have to reject that extension. Which is a profoundly stupid thing to do. But, hey, we're talking about Brexit.
Surely the PM can't hang around after losing a VONC? What, for example, if parliament had got rid of him because he'd gone loopy and was about to launch a nuclear strike?
Of course they can hang around, Callaghan did.
In your example I guess the the Commons might immediately indicate it would bac
The FTPA keeps having an election [as Callaghan did] as an option, it just adds a 14 day 'cooling off period' essentially where the Commons can choose a new PM instead of an election. Unless it does that, then like Callaghan the outgoing PM will remain PM barring their voluntarily resigning until a successor is clear.
So going backe danger of No Deal. Job done.
Yes the Commons does have to do that.
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
Yes, but saying it's too late for the Commons to do anything about it because if Johnson is VONCed he will have the power to fix an election date after 31 October is sheer nonsense.
Johnson will have that power unless the Commons agrees an alternative, something it conspicuously so far rules out. Luciana Berger and others have said they could not countenance Corbyn as PM. Corbyn would not countenance anyone bar him as PM.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
Oh come off it. Saying the House of Commons no longer has the power is nonsense. It clearly does have the power.
Whether it has the will is a different matter.
The article says they no longer have the power by forcing an election, which is correct.
They still have the power to elect an alternative but that is a different matter. Before now they had the power to force an election before Brexit, now they don't.
UNLESS the EU goes mad and just extends without our permission! Hah! Can they do that? I think they can. Or can we veto their unilateral extension, as a departing EU member with residual voting rights?
WTAF. My brain hurts.
No they can't. An extension must be unanimously agreed by both the departing state and the remaining EU members.
We are missing an obvious point here. There is literally no point VONC ing Boris without a replacement. Surely, during any VONC debate, potential replacements will be mooted? Of course Corbyn will think it should be him, but that seems implausible. The mood of the House can be tested during the debate itself. If the name of Ken Clarke or Starmer, the 2 most likely in my view, we will have a pretty good idea of their support already. We'll be at the last minute anyway. And the idea Corbyn could veto Starmer is ludicrous. Most Labour MPs would jump at the chance!
It doesn't matter if most Labour MPs would jump at the chance, all Labour MPs including Corbyn must agree to it.
Corbyn will be in the unenviable position where he can force himself to be the only contender, or he gets a chaotic No Deal Tory Brexit he probably wants and an election he definitely wants. Why would he permit someone else to get the credit of stopping credit when he can get everything he desires by insisting only he is appropriate?
However, it seems there is a massive depth charge buried within the FTPA, which could be what Cummings (Rasputin) is on about:
"If a new Government cannot be formed within this time period, then dissolution is triggered. There is no provision for an extension of the 14 day period. Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown ."
Wow. Just Wow. Who wrote this crap????
Boris can breeze past 31st Oct unless Queen objects to the recommendation of the date?
Or have I missed something?
That's the whole point of what Cummings is claiming, isn't it?
But it depends on no one else being asked to form a government.
Indeed, but why would anyone else be asked to form a government?
Only someone who won a confirmation vote.
Christ. What a utter nuclear waste mess the FTPA is.
Osborne and Clegg should never be allowed near legislation ever again.
However, it seems there is a massive depth charge buried within the FTPA, which could be what Cummings (Rasputin) is on about:
"If a new Government cannot be formed within this time period, then dissolution is triggered. There is no provision for an extension of the 14 day period. Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown ."
Wow. Just Wow. Who wrote this crap????
Boris can breeze past 31st Oct unless Queen objects to the recommendation of the date?
Or have I missed something?
That's the whole point of what Cummings is claiming, isn't it?
But it depends on no one else being asked to form a government.
Indeed, but why would anyone else be asked to form a government?
However, it seems there is a massive depth charge buried within the FTPA, which could be what Cummings (Rasputin) is on about:
"If a new Government cannot be formed within this time period, then dissolution is triggered. There is no provision for an extension of the 14 day period. Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown ."
Wow. Just Wow. Who wrote this crap????
Boris can breeze past 31st Oct unless Queen objects to the recommendation of the date?
Or have I missed something?
The FTPA is a shambles. Cheers Dave. However, as I say below, the House would realise, surely, that there is no point VONC ing, unless there is a successor. And, if it does, they would have 2 weeks. They would be FORCED to agree someone, if there is a majority for No Deal.
Comments
Since then a number of Labour MPs have indicated they want a deal too.
I mean, Chipping Norton?? lol
Precedence is that people aren't asked until the Queen knows they can command a majority - and there has been no example of a sitting PM in this country being sacked by the Queen.
The Gough Whitlam precedence is a very bad example to give and built up republican feeling in Australia. It was a major bone for the pro-republican side. I don't think for one second Her Majesty will do that prior to it being required. She will stay impartial unless or until the existing PM resigns or the Commons does its job and chooses a successor.
i) Boris loses VONC - he ceases to be PM
ii) Corbyn loses VONC - he continues to be PM
I've got that right?
I think your flaw is that Corbyn doesn't become PM until its clear he won't lose a VONC. Brown lost an election and continued as PM until it was clear his replacement could command the Commons.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmpubadm/1813/1813.pdf
This makes it clear that:
1. If the PM is VONC'd, he remains PM while parties seek to indicate that a majority are ready to support new PM X.
2. The Queen only calls on X when this is clear.
3. The PM is not allowed to undertake any action with long-term consequences during this period: he is in a caretaker role.
4. There is no procedural basis for how the majority support for X emerges - it's seen as a political process, e.g. by parties forming a majority agreeing to recommend X.
5. If no agreement is reached withi 14 days, and the VONC is not reversed, an election follows automatically. The PM decides the exact date (but cannot do anything significant while waiting for it).
The same for Corbyn. He continues to be PM unless the Queen wants to ask a third person to form a government.
There always has to be a PM. Remember?
Within days panic had swept the nation and iirc it was the only time in Blair's entire administration when the Tories went ahead.
The whole thing lasted, what a couple of weeks.
Imagine how we will be in November, with food shortages, lambs burning in fields, SMEs going tits up, business owners crying on news at 10...
Our country has turned into a multilayered psychological kidnap thriller mixed with the 8D chess from Star Trek.
Elisabeth Murdoch and Matthew Freud? Burford. Alex James? Kingham. David Cameron? Dean/Chadlington. Jeremy Clarkson? Chadlington. Rebekah Brooks? Sarsden.
None of them live in Chippy. Most of them are closer to Burford, Kingham or Charlbury. The whole Chipping Norton Set thing was a bit of a misnomer.
Grabbing vote share from the Brexit Party is the key objective to be a bigger party than any other. The problem is, the BP will always die harder. Johnson has to deliver something and they don't. As Farage and his ERG acolytes drive Johnson into ever more extreme Brexit positions, he gets deeper into a mess he can't get out of.
Overall West Oxfordshire is 28 Tory, 10 LD and 9 Labour and 2 Independents, so Labour still in third place and Tories still 9 more even than Labour and LD combined
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_West_Oxfordshire_District_Council_election
It is - chav towns apart - one of the most affluent corners of northwest Europe. Not very representative.
Thank you for clarifying.
I expect there would be a heck of a row over whether 'asking the EU for an extension' counted as 'something significant with long term consequences'.
https://twitter.com/tianran/status/1157199736232927232?s=20
Easier said than done. Are Luciana Berger, Chuka, Grieves etc going to back Corbyn? If no, he can't become PM.
Is Corbyn going to back Clarke, or Starmer? If no, they can't become PM.
It is easier to agree what you don't want, than what you do want.
It will come down to whether and how much Corbyn is prepared to compromise his intrinsic beliefs. Will he offer an extension, a new referendum and a swift general election? If he does, then the House would probably support him, through gritted teeth.
But this is Corbyn we're talking about. A grizzled old fool who couldn't cope with a polytechnic education, and who hasn't changed an opinion in 40 years.
My Christ. The fate of the nation will depend on Magic Grandpa.
I have not been able to post much as I relaxed and forgot about Brexit. After all there is little my one vote can do to change things otherwise we would have left under TM deal
However, reading the more recent posts my impression is that we are discussing more and more novel conspiracy theories and if I was to be impolite, becomimg deranged
I comfort myself with the fact there is so much to enjoy that is not political and share with considerable understanding my son in law and families agonising decision to place their mother in dementia care, as her husband and carer is not at well.
There are more important things than constant aggravation
" If, following a vote of no confidence, there is a person who could clearly command the confidence of the House, the Cabinet Manual makes clear the Prime Minister is expected to resign. If there is not a clear alternative, the Cabinet Manual advises that “Where a range of different administrations could be formed, discussions may take place between political parties on who should form the next government.” It then refers the reader to the guidance on what should occur following a general election where no party wins a majority of seats."
The sequence will need to be:
Stage 1: VONC Boris.
Stage 2: Indicate willing to agree to Successor
Stage 3: HMQ calls upon Successor
Stage 4: Affirmative Vote in Successor.
People seem to think Stage 2 will be missed altogether.
https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1157710250969063424
I do find it interesting, though, that there is a significant belt of West Oxfordshire-like districts which is turning LD. Basically from the Chilterns, across Oxfordshire, to the Gloucestershire Cotswolds and Cheltenham. It’s potentially a new heartland of formerly Conservative territory to replace the South-West.
I don't think that the current House would have a majority for any long-term candidate - most non-Labour people wouldn't vote for Corbyn, and most Labour people wouldn't vote for some interim figure. But Corbyn could probably get a brief mandate on condition that he did nothing else but stop the clock and call an election, thereby obviating fears that he'd introduce a Marxist programme or whatever.
So Cummings is sort of right, but only if Parliament doesn't actually appoint a successor.
The thing is, even if it works, what does Boris do then? He would have to go into the GE with a definite Brexit policy and strategy. And what the F would that be? What can he put in the manifesto which doesn't split and destroy his party? And lose the election?
Cummings will surely have gamed THIS as well, which is why I am not sure this "bluff" is really a bluff.
I wonder if they really do think No Deal would be manageable.
Jezza: wants to be forced by HoC to have to fight a GE AFTER a Tory No Deal with all the chaos that follows.
Johnson: wants to be forced by HoC to NOT No Deal in order to fight an election about who governs Britain.
Simply VONC'ing Johnson is not enough. And the idea Corbyn can become PM and request an extension without the support of the Commons for Corbyn being PM is not true.
All the polling evidence is that the Tories will do better after Brexit not before it.
If another government is formed, then Johnson is no longer PM, even if something goes wrong and the vote of confidence doesn't pass.
People can argue about the circumstances in which another prime minister would be appointed, but if that happens Johnson will no longer be PM.
"If this motion is carried, there is a 14 calendar day period in which to form a new Government, confirmed in office by a resolution as follows:
“That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government” "
We really do need a total realignment of British politics, and some kind of AV. Whether you are a Leaver or Remainer, Brexit has proved that our crumbling system is fucked, and we need a clean slate with a new method of electing our tribunes, to better represent us all.
Are you suggesting DC is secretly working for the EU ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/03/dominic-cummings-tells-mps-missed-chance-stop-no-deal-brexit/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_As3WkLR7Mlvw
Whether it has the will is a different matter.
The election platform would once again be leave, deal or no deal, and Bozo will hope that whatever extension has been forced upon him (he’ll be praying for a long one) actually gives time to go for an alternative deal. In effect it’ll be “leave”, since every party other than BXP Ltd. will by then be campaigning for PV/Remain.
Highly doubtful, I think. People won't necessarily look at the mess and say, I got it wrong about No Deal. They will see a government in total disarray with no answers to anything. We're already getting a taste of that. Johnson is being confronted with the consequences of No Deal and falls back on saying, actually we want a deal.
Election then No Deal Brexit with a sizeable majority would potentially give him 5 years. But he needs parliament's acceptance and he's still not certain to win that kind of majority
"If a new Government cannot be formed within this time period, then dissolution is triggered. There is no provision for an extension of the 14 day period. Dissolution need not follow immediately on a triggering event, as section 2(7) allows for the Prime Minister to recommend a suitable polling day to the Crown ."
Wow. Just Wow. Who wrote this crap????
Boris can breeze past 31st Oct unless Queen objects to the recommendation of the date?
Or have I missed something?
You are extremely blasé if you think that might not have an effect on your polling figures.
They still have the power to elect an alternative but that is a different matter. Before now they had the power to force an election before Brexit, now they don't.
But it depends on no one else being asked to form a government.
WTAF. My brain hurts.
Hint: "I don't think it will happen" is not a demonstration that something is impossible.
Surely, during any VONC debate, potential replacements will be mooted? Of course Corbyn will think it should be him, but that seems implausible. The mood of the House can be tested during the debate itself. If the name of Ken Clarke or Starmer, the 2 most likely in my view, we will have a pretty good idea of their support already. We'll be at the last minute anyway.
And the idea Corbyn could veto Starmer is ludicrous. Most Labour MPs would jump at the chance!
Yes the Commons does have the power to approve an alternative government. That is a much higher hurdle for them to clear than just triggering an election.
If I say it enough times, will it sink in?
Corbyn will be in the unenviable position where he can force himself to be the only contender, or he gets a chaotic No Deal Tory Brexit he probably wants and an election he definitely wants. Why would he permit someone else to get the credit of stopping credit when he can get everything he desires by insisting only he is appropriate?
Christ. What a utter nuclear waste mess the FTPA is.
Osborne and Clegg should never be allowed near legislation ever again.