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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nothing up my sleeve

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nothing up my sleeve

Boris Johnson has been Prime Minister for under a fortnight and he has immediately put his imprint on government. Boris Johnson is seeking to play hardball with the EU over revising the withdrawal agreement’s terms. He has made no attempt to charm his putative negotiating partners, refusing to talk with them until it is accepted that the backstop is dead. Indeed it is not at all clear who in Brussels currently could negotiate with him, given that the new Commission president has not yet taken office and the outgoing Commission president and his Brexit negotiator now have no mandate to enter such discussions.

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    edited August 4
    Is there any real precedent which might answer Alastair’s question ?

    In any event, although there is probably a majority in the Commons to prevent no deal Brexit, that is not sufficient in itself. Someone would have to come up with a practical plan to do so, and obtain the backing of Parliament for it.
    Realistically, that means a GONU.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636
    edited August 4
    Nigelb said:
    We did this on the previous thread: He's ignoring the possibility of someone else taking over as PM, and hoping Telegraph readers don't understand how the FTPA works. Presumably he's doing this so that if it happens he can pretend it's some obscure dastardly procedural trick that nobody even realized was possible, when in fact it's the constitution working as it's supposed to when the PM tries to do something mental and loses the confidence of MPs.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111
    The government gives every impression of expecting an election soon. Johnson's election strategy, clearly, is to squeeze the Brexit Party more than Labour and the Lib Dems can do to each other and so become bigger than any other party. The Conservatives achieve this by being no less radical in its Brexit positions than the Brexit Party.

    I don't however think No Deal chaos is part of Johnson's strategy, rather a consequence of it. Johnson, I think, knows he's in a trap but doesn't know how to escape it. His problem is that he has to deliver something; the Brexit Party don't. The more extreme Brexity he becomes the more chaotic it gets, which makes his party more unelectable. But he can never be Brexity enough for Farage.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    edited August 4
    A really good piece by Alastair: congratulations. It's one of the better argued approaches to the conundrum of our time.

    When the DT broke with its Cummings headline last night I decided to mull it rather than post something knee-jerk on here.

    This was mainly because the Cummings comments made no sense to me on a psycho-political level. If that was 'really' what they were hatching, there is NO way they would have told everyone. If they thought they could get away with it, considered it their true ace, they wouldn't splurge it all out and let everyone have time to think about how to head it off.

    Cummings is narcissistic and anarchistic. He believes in the Steve Bannon-Trumpian zeitgeist that you have to destroy and smash everything before you can see what might emerge from the rubble. So perhaps Cummings was playing, with a deliberate piece of winding-up, spooking the markets and also MPs on their break.

    It's also possible, on the other hand, that we are feting Cummings too much. It's a fault of ours to pedestal (it's a verb now) someone for one piece of brilliance: Saatchi and Saachi, Lyndon Crosby and now Dominic Cummings. You know what they say about hubris?

    I wonder, though, if there's another narrative at work here. They simply don't know what to do. Cummings was calling bluff, poorly as it happens. The by-election didn't go right but more significantly, Boris is losing the support of the remainer wing of the tory party, support he needs in Parliament. So they literally don't know what to do. They've mooted proroguing and that failed. Now they're mooting the DTel idea of a Nov election after losing a VONC and that looks likely to fail too.

    So, take a deep breath and step back. The mood music looks to me fairly clear and this is what they realise: opposition to No Deal is mounting. It's getting to the point when losing a VONC on or around Sept 3rd is firm favourite (incredible when you stop and think about that). And they are genuinely now unsure what to do. So they're shooting from the hip.

    What will really happen? I don't know. But I think the answer is something more sane than Dom Cummings and Boris Johnson. No one, no one, wants a November General Election. It's easy to forget in early August just how dark and murky it is in that month. It's bonfire night and the run-up to Christmas.

    The odds on a Gov't of National Unity, in place to extend Article 50 and steer us through to either a new People's Vote and / or a General Election in Spring 2020 are becoming shorter.

    Oh, and as a footnote, don't underestimate the role of the Speaker, John Bercow.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954
    Currently eating a delicious croissant 🥐 in central Le Mans 👍
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,757
    An excellent piece . Mr Meeks' threads are always thought provoking, whatever your political standpoint
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Good morning, everyone.

    Will give the F1 markets a look shortly.

    On-topic: I'm yet to be convinced Boris is other than an egomaniacal incompetent.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,757

    Currently eating a delicious croissant 🥐 in central Le Mans 👍

    De bonne heure pour le petit dejeuner....
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,162
    A GONU can't be led by Corbyn, rebel Tories may vote against BoJo but actively put Corbyn into number 10 is a step too far.

    Corbyn will not step aside, ego and the fact he's a brexiter happy to take power post brexit preclude it.

    Therefore, who knows? Crash out is my pick.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    The Chancellor has sanctioned a budget of billions to pay for a public awareness campaign

    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    The billions are for Brexit preparedness. The public awareness campaign has been flagged as £100 million - a colossal amount of money in anyone's books - but there may be more with the UK spending money in the rest of the EU:

    On top of a widely reported domestic public information campaign, officials are looking at taking out pages in major European newspapers and targeting online adverts at European citizens, directing them to U.K. government information on Brexit.

    Part of the European public information campaign will target and be tailored to U.K. citizens living on the Continent. But there is a wider aim to ram home the message to EU capitals that the U.K. is not bluffing when it says it will leave at the end of October.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-plans-no-deal-brexit-ad-campaign-in-europe/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636
    edited August 4


    Corbyn will not step aside, ego and the fact he's a brexiter happy to take power post brexit preclude it.

    He doesn't have to step aside, he can be voted down. Then the question is then whether he votes for the compromise caretaker or lets it all burn. If he goes for the second one he will have difficulty getting support from remainers in the subsequent election, to put it mildly.

    However, the other problem in this situation is what Labour leavers would do. Even if they'll vote for their own guy as a compromise that doesn't mean they'll vote for the remainiac caretaker. So then you need a bunch more Tory rebels to make up for the lost Lab leavers.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    No I think it's much more likely that a Government of National Unity will have a short-term objective: to guide us through to a Spring General Election or new People's Vote (possibly both) after extending Article 50.

    Under those very time-limited circumstances of, say, six months I don't think the narrative would be about 'stepping aside.'

    So, someone who isn't going to be a threat to anyone else. A statesman, or stateswoman.

    Ken Clarke? Oliver Letwin? Geoffrey Robinson? Margaret Beckett.

    I wonder if Ken Clarke is worth a punt. I could see it ...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    My question is directly related, though by happy coincidence, to Dominic Cummings’ assertion.

    To have a stab at answering my own question: when a government has been defeated in a vote of no confidence before, the Prime Minister has had the power, but not the obligation, to call an election at his (always his) convenience. So in 1979, for example, James Callaghan used over a week after being defeated in a vote of no confidence to finish up Parliamentary matters.

    Two things are different here from ever before. First, the government cannot short circuit the 14 day period. And secondly, there are matters that a majority of MPs would want addressed before a general election. My guess is that an emergency motion by MPs to take control of the Parliamentary agenda would pass. But what would they do with that power? Time for some influential MPs to do some serious thinking.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    I've just one other thought going through my mind and it's this. Suppose Cummings-Johnson are solely goading. For what, you ask? Goading the Commons into Revoking Article 50. Then they go to the people with a Gen Election against all those nasty anti-democratic MPs. It's the only sense I can find in what's going on other than the fact that Boris Johnson is, as M-D says below, an egomaniacal incompetent.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,162
    edited August 4


    Corbyn will not step aside, ego and the fact he's a brexiter happy to take power post brexit preclude it.

    He doesn't have to step aside, he can be voted down. Then the question is then whether he votes for the compromise caretaker or lets it all burn. If he goes for the second one he will have difficulty getting support from remainers in the subsequent election, to put it mildly.

    However, the other problem in this situation is what Labour leavers would do. Even if they'll vote for their own guy as a compromise that doesn't mean they'll vote for the remainiac caretaker. So then you need a bunch more Tory rebels to make up for the lost Lab leavers.
    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    Nigelb said:

    Is there any real precedent which might answer Alastair’s question ?

    In any event, although there is probably a majority in the Commons to prevent no deal Brexit, that is not sufficient in itself. Someone would have to come up with a practical plan to do so, and obtain the backing of Parliament for it.
    Realistically, that means a GONU.

    Previously a vote of no confidence resulted in Parliament being prorogued and an election being called.

    This isn’t the case now and Parliament needs to continue sitting but it’s unlikely that a government without confidence can continue to set the agenda so I suspect it moves to Parliament setting it.

    Another question actually comes to mind. There have been a few bills from MPs that were rejected because they had budgetary impacts. I wonder if they could be reintroduced if no Government exists even if no PM has been identified.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    Why, I wonder, is the government spending money, if not quite like a drunken sailor, much more freely than of late, if not to swing enough votes to get back in again. It's already giving the appearance of be 'in office but not in control'.
    I suspect that the government will fall early in the next session, and I suspect Mr(?) Rose is right in expecting some sort of cobbled together Govt of Rather More Talent (and sense).
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,308


    Corbyn will not step aside, ego and the fact he's a brexiter happy to take power post brexit preclude it.

    He doesn't have to step aside, he can be voted down. Then the question is then whether he votes for the compromise caretaker or lets it all burn. If he goes for the second one he will have difficulty getting support from remainers in the subsequent election, to put it mildly.

    However, the other problem in this situation is what Labour leavers would do. Even if they'll vote for their own guy as a compromise that doesn't mean they'll vote for the remainiac caretaker. So then you need a bunch more Tory rebels to make up for the lost Lab leavers.
    Apart from Hoey, very few Labour leavers support No Deal. Provided the caretaker was only offering a GE and a Brexit extension, I think most Labour rebels would come on board.


  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636


    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins

    He definitely has enough loyalists to prevent an alternative government, but standing in an election against Con who just delivered Brexit, without the support of Remainers who now unanimously hate him with a passion, does not sound like a winning electoral strategy.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    No I think it's much more likely that a Government of National Unity will have a short-term objective: to guide us through to a Spring General Election or new People's Vote (possibly both) after extending Article 50.

    Under those very time-limited circumstances of, say, six months I don't think the narrative would be about 'stepping aside.'

    So, someone who isn't going to be a threat to anyone else. A statesman, or stateswoman.

    Ken Clarke? Oliver Letwin? Geoffrey Robinson? Margaret Beckett.

    I wonder if Ken Clarke is worth a punt. I could see it ...

    At that point parliament has become the Bastard Parliament and needs to be terminated.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636
    edited August 4
    I'm just imagining Cummings reading the tweets in response to his Telegraph article and going, "WTF, Fixed Terms Parliament Act", never heard of it before, why did nobody tell me about this? Shit, shit, that's the whole strategy buggered"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    F1: lots of tempting stuff. No one stand out bet. Tricky. I was going to spray money around with low stakes but there's still quite a lot even for that.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 558
    In the United Kingdom, decisions as to whether the House of Commons or House of Lords should be recalled are the responsibility of the Speakers of those individual bodies, and are usually taken following a request from the government. This follows a 2001 recommendation from the Hansard Society Commission on Parliamentary Scrutiny that "the Speaker of the Commons should have the ability to recall Parliament at times of emergency".”

    Surely we are fast approaching an emergency. If a majority of MPs or even leaders of opposition parties plus Clarke as Father of the House asked for a recall Bercow would be minded to give it. What has he to lose?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    edited August 4
    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of cross party MPs who have VONC’d the govt and are facing a GE.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    TGOHF said:

    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of MPs who have brought down the govt and are facing a GE.

    I tend to agree. Which means that if the government forces it, a revocation of the Article 50 notice might be all that Parliament could do.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945

    I'm just imagining Cummings reading the tweets in response to his Telegraph article and going, "WTF, Fixed Terms Parliament Act", never heard of it before, why did nobody tell me about this? Shit, shit, that's the whole strategy buggered"

    Ah the limited thinking that lost the referendum ....

    Carry on.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636
    TGOHF said:

    I'm just imagining Cummings reading the tweets in response to his Telegraph article and going, "WTF, Fixed Terms Parliament Act", never heard of it before, why did nobody tell me about this? Shit, shit, that's the whole strategy buggered"

    Ah the limited thinking that lost the referendum ....

    Carry on.
    It was a joke, I do not in fact consider that the most likely explanation, see upthread...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,308

    TGOHF said:

    The EU ain’t going to do a deal with a rabble of MPs who have brought down the govt and are facing a GE.

    I tend to agree. Which means that if the government forces it, a revocation of the Article 50 notice might be all that Parliament could do.
    I don't think they'll go straight to revoke.

    I think/hope the EU would give a second extension in the hope of getting a non Conservative govt. If Boris wins decisively, then they know it's No Deal. But they at least have a chance of a sensible govt passing a deal and probably having a second referendum.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988


    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins

    He definitely has enough loyalists to prevent an alternative government, but standing in an election against Con who just delivered Brexit, without the support of Remainers who now unanimously hate him with a passion, does not sound like a winning electoral strategy.
    With the Cummings strategy of a post Halloween election, the chance of a minimal impact No Deal disappears. The uncertainty of who would be in government would ensure a maximum impact No Deal car crash. No way is Boris getting re-elected for that. It would be an abdication of government of extraordinary proportions. Brexit destroys the Tory party and Boris is the shortest lived PM ever in history.

    On the other hand the destruction of the economy would mean plenty of Christmas bargains for Chinese shoppers, so there would be something to be cheerful about!



  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Meeks, it'd be interesting to see if they'd go for revoke or referendum.

    Mr. rkrkrk, a problem would be the tenuous nature of said Mongrel Parliament. A referendum requires a question, and options. Or multiple questions. And a time frame. And legislation beyond one vote. And official campaigns.

    A lot easier, for the Commons, to revoke outright. The downside for them is that the electoral will see their referendum decision quashed.

    What about manifestos? Do the Conservatives pledge another referendum? If they do, they lose all Remain voters and some Leavers may cling to the Nigel Nader Party anyway. If they don't, they lose some Leavers at least (and possibly a lot) to the Faragians.

    Easier for every other party.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,308

    Mr. Meeks, it'd be interesting to see if they'd go for revoke or referendum.

    Mr. rkrkrk, a problem would be the tenuous nature of said Mongrel Parliament. A referendum requires a question, and options. Or multiple questions. And a time frame. And legislation beyond one vote. And official campaigns.

    In my eyes, the purpose of GoNU is to get an extension and then a GE. The (hopefully in my case) incoming Labour landslide govt would then address the questions you raise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Betting Post

    F1: backed a couple of things, including Hamilton and Bottas to lead lap 1 (6 and 5, respectively). Verstappen's had ropey starts recently.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/08/hungary-pre-race-2019.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    I think too many people are overthinking this.

    The reason Dominic Cummings looks like an incompetent twat with the intellect of a dead stoat and a grasp of key issues that would disgrace a fairly bright three year old - is because he is one.

    Do not mistake cock-up for conspiracy and do not look for a bewildering master strategy where you should just point and groan at incompetence.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803


    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins

    He definitely has enough loyalists to prevent an alternative government, but standing in an election against Con who just delivered Brexit, without the support of Remainers who now unanimously hate him with a passion, does not sound like a winning electoral strategy.
    I'm starting to think it may not matter. Thinking through the steps from my post earlier:-

    1) Parliament must get control of the agenda (that's logical because previously Parliament was prorogued which isn't the case anymore)
    2) Parliament equally must be able to create bills that impact the budget as there won't be a Government which means while they can't force an extension through when there is a Government (as its a budget issue) they should be able to do it then.

    Which means we may not actually need a GoNU, it's possible that Boris could be legally forced into asking to extend or revoke within the 14 day period. and that solves a lot of problems for a lot of people as Boris is forced to ask for an extension but can blame others for it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    I am becoming more and more convinced that Dominic Cummings is not the genius he, the Telegraph and the Spectator think he is.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    Apart from VOnC debates, there isn’t any parliamentary agenda.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114
    Bellingcat's early (and interesting) take on the El Paso shooting:

    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2019/08/04/the-el-paso-shooting-and-the-gamification-of-terror/

    Of particular interest:
    "Until law enforcement, and the media, treat these shooters as part of a terrorist movement no less organized, or deadly, than ISIS or Al Qaeda, the violence will continue. There will be more killers, more gleeful celebration of body counts on 8chan, and more bloody attempts to beat the last killer’s “high score”."

    Speaking personally, I see Trump's sick and racist "Go back" comments (which Farage has allegedly said was "genius") helps feed the politics of such shooters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    FF43 said:

    The government gives every impression of expecting an election soon. Johnson's election strategy, clearly, is to squeeze the Brexit Party more than Labour and the Lib Dems can do to each other and so become bigger than any other party. The Conservatives achieve this by being no less radical in its Brexit positions than the Brexit Party.

    I don't however think No Deal chaos is part of Johnson's strategy, rather a consequence of it. Johnson, I think, knows he's in a trap but doesn't know how to escape it. His problem is that he has to deliver something; the Brexit Party don't. The more extreme Brexity he becomes the more chaotic it gets, which makes his party more unelectable. But he can never be Brexity enough for Farage.

    Further, it is clearly in Farage’s best interest for Bozo to fail to deliver his promise, just as it is in Corbyn’s best interest to have a chaotic Tory no deal.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803

    I am becoming more and more convinced that Dominic Cummings is not the genius he, the Telegraph and the Spectator think he is.

    I suspect he is a genius in a narrow area (as shown in the leave campaign) but he isn't the polymath they think he is.

    Now I wouldn't say that Parliament is making things up as they go along but it's cleat that Parliament may be entering a situation that has never occurred before which means a lot of things may be options that weren't before.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    A GONU can't be led by Corbyn, rebel Tories may vote against BoJo but actively put Corbyn into number 10 is a step too far.

    Corbyn will not step aside, ego and the fact he's a brexiter happy to take power post brexit preclude it.

    Therefore, who knows? Crash out is my pick.


    If there are enough of them, they can vote Bozo down, then abstain in the Corbyn VOC. lame, I know, but they are politicians.

    Although it would be better, and more likely, to appoint someone more neutral as PM of the GONU. The clue is in the words.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514

    I am becoming more and more convinced that Dominic Cummings is not the genius he, the Telegraph and the Spectator think he is.

    If you'd worked in education you wouldn't need convincing.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    IanB2 said:

    Apart from VOnC debates, there isn’t any parliamentary agenda.

    Does the bill actually say that?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    I've just one other thought going through my mind and it's this. Suppose Cummings-Johnson are solely goading. For what, you ask? Goading the Commons into Revoking Article 50. Then they go to the people with a Gen Election against all those nasty anti-democratic MPs. It's the only sense I can find in what's going on other than the fact that Boris Johnson is, as M-D says below, an egomaniacal incompetent.


    The most obvious explanation, as I said last night. Also fits with the efforts Bozo has made to make sure that anyone with qualms about no deal is on the backbenches.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    Foxy said:


    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins

    He definitely has enough loyalists to prevent an alternative government, but standing in an election against Con who just delivered Brexit, without the support of Remainers who now unanimously hate him with a passion, does not sound like a winning electoral strategy.
    With the Cummings strategy of a post Halloween election, the chance of a minimal impact No Deal disappears. The uncertainty of who would be in government would ensure a maximum impact No Deal car crash. No way is Boris getting re-elected for that. It would be an abdication of government of extraordinary proportions. Brexit destroys the Tory party and Boris is the shortest lived PM ever in history.

    On the other hand the destruction of the economy would mean plenty of Christmas bargains for Chinese shoppers, so there would be something to be cheerful about!



    The Chinese shop for Christmas? Amazing what you learn on this site.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:


    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins

    He definitely has enough loyalists to prevent an alternative government, but standing in an election against Con who just delivered Brexit, without the support of Remainers who now unanimously hate him with a passion, does not sound like a winning electoral strategy.
    With the Cummings strategy of a post Halloween election, the chance of a minimal impact No Deal disappears. The uncertainty of who would be in government would ensure a maximum impact No Deal car crash. No way is Boris getting re-elected for that. It would be an abdication of government of extraordinary proportions. Brexit destroys the Tory party and Boris is the shortest lived PM ever in history.

    On the other hand the destruction of the economy would mean plenty of Christmas bargains for Chinese shoppers, so there would be something to be cheerful about!



    The Chinese shop for Christmas? Amazing what you learn on this site.
    Chinese New Year is shortly after Christmas, of course.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    Icarus said:

    In the United Kingdom, decisions as to whether the House of Commons or House of Lords should be recalled are the responsibility of the Speakers of those individual bodies, and are usually taken following a request from the government. This follows a 2001 recommendation from the Hansard Society Commission on Parliamentary Scrutiny that "the Speaker of the Commons should have the ability to recall Parliament at times of emergency".”

    Surely we are fast approaching an emergency. If a majority of MPs or even leaders of opposition parties plus Clarke as Father of the House asked for a recall Bercow would be minded to give it. What has he to lose?

    Making a count of which MPs are able to return in what timescale could be tricky.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:


    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins

    He definitely has enough loyalists to prevent an alternative government, but standing in an election against Con who just delivered Brexit, without the support of Remainers who now unanimously hate him with a passion, does not sound like a winning electoral strategy.
    With the Cummings strategy of a post Halloween election, the chance of a minimal impact No Deal disappears. The uncertainty of who would be in government would ensure a maximum impact No Deal car crash. No way is Boris getting re-elected for that. It would be an abdication of government of extraordinary proportions. Brexit destroys the Tory party and Boris is the shortest lived PM ever in history.

    On the other hand the destruction of the economy would mean plenty of Christmas bargains for Chinese shoppers, so there would be something to be cheerful about!



    The Chinese shop for Christmas? Amazing what you learn on this site.
    Chinese New Year is shortly after Christmas, of course.
    Lol. So it is.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Apart from VOnC debates, there isn’t any parliamentary agenda.

    Does the bill actually say that?

    No, so I guess Bercow has some leeway. But an emergency motion appears the principal opportunity, if he took one, as there will be no other business and no business motions to amend.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169
    Just as a matter of interest - anyone observed that Alistair Meeks (“a lawyer”) is cited as an authority on the Wikipedia page for FTPA...? ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    eek said:

    I am becoming more and more convinced that Dominic Cummings is not the genius he, the Telegraph and the Spectator think he is.

    I suspect he is a genius in a narrow area (as shown in the leave campaign) but he isn't the polymath they think he is.

    Now I wouldn't say that Parliament is making things up as they go along but it's cleat that Parliament may be entering a situation that has never occurred before which means a lot of things may be options that weren't before.
    His genius is in campaign messaging, not parliamentary procedure or managing big government projects.

    So focus on what message this cunning plan is designed to send (or set up).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    edited August 4
    ydoethur said:

    I am becoming more and more convinced that Dominic Cummings is not the genius he, the Telegraph and the Spectator think he is.

    If you'd worked in education you wouldn't need convincing.

    AIUI, his reputation largely rests on his work for the Leave campaign plus, as Dr Y indicates, some highly questionable work at Education.

    Edited for incorrect comma use.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217
    edited August 4
    Great thread, as ever. For some of the mooted scenarios there has to be an upheaval in British politics the like of which this simple, unprepossessing Isle has not seen for generations. I don't see it.

    I see more likely that BoJo rows back. Although quite how that happens goodness only knows. But it's his premiership also don't forget.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Apart from VOnC debates, there isn’t any parliamentary agenda.

    Does the bill actually say that?
    And this is what the bill actually says

    (3)An early parliamentary general election is also to take place if—
    (a)the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (4), and
    (b)the period of 14 days after the day on which that motion is passed ends without the House passing a motion in the form set out in subsection (5).
    (4)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(a) is—
    “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”

    (5)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(b) is—
    “That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”

    So there is nothing there that states Parliamentary business stops and there is no convention regarding what should happen as it's never occurred before.

    Not that it's likely but it would be funny if:-

    Boris is VoNCed
    Parliament insists on an extension until 2022
    Boris is given confidence after asking for the extension...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    ydoethur said:

    I think too many people are overthinking this.

    The reason Dominic Cummings looks like an incompetent twat with the intellect of a dead stoat and a grasp of key issues that would disgrace a fairly bright three year old - is because he is one.

    Do not mistake cock-up for conspiracy and do not look for a bewildering master strategy where you should just point and groan at incompetence.

    But that’s the whole story of brexit, people thinking they know what they are doing when they don’t actually have a clue, take IDS for example he really thinks he knows what he is talking about is fact! Some one, somewhere may know what they are doing but it’s not in the nations interest rather than their own.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945

    ydoethur said:

    I am becoming more and more convinced that Dominic Cummings is not the genius he, the Telegraph and the Spectator think he is.

    If you'd worked in education you wouldn't need convincing.

    AIUI, his reputation largely rests on his work for the Leave campaign plus, as Dr Y, indicates some highly questionable work at Education.
    Those upset in education were in the supply side.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:


    I suspect he has enough loyalists to make it impossible without his consent.

    I think he'd let it burn and go for socialism in a post brexit election, which he probably wins

    He definitely has enough loyalists to prevent an alternative government, but standing in an election against Con who just delivered Brexit, without the support of Remainers who now unanimously hate him with a passion, does not sound like a winning electoral strategy.
    With the Cummings strategy of a post Halloween election, the chance of a minimal impact No Deal disappears. The uncertainty of who would be in government would ensure a maximum impact No Deal car crash. No way is Boris getting re-elected for that. It would be an abdication of government of extraordinary proportions. Brexit destroys the Tory party and Boris is the shortest lived PM ever in history.

    On the other hand the destruction of the economy would mean plenty of Christmas bargains for Chinese shoppers, so there would be something to be cheerful about!



    The Chinese shop for Christmas? Amazing what you learn on this site.
    Yep. It is a pretty secular affair for most, though there are large numbers of Chinese Christians. Like Valentine's Day, there are attempts to ban it:


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/24/china-cracks-down-on-christmas-celebrations

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    edited August 4
    TGOHF said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am becoming more and more convinced that Dominic Cummings is not the genius he, the Telegraph and the Spectator think he is.

    If you'd worked in education you wouldn't need convincing.

    AIUI, his reputation largely rests on his work for the Leave campaign plus, as Dr Y, indicates some highly questionable work at Education.
    Those upset in education were in the supply side.
    You mean, the people who forecast that his reforms would cause major problems based on, y'know, this funny thing called prior knowledge?

    And who have been proved tragically correct?

    Edit - it's worth pointing out a great many academics involved in the reforms also grew very frustrated at him for ignoring their advice. This is one reason why we've ended up with qualifications that are actually further from degree level study than the previous ones were.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169
    edited August 4
    TOPPING said:

    Great thread, as ever. For some of the mooted scenarios there has to be an upheaval in British politics the like of which this simple, unprepossessing Isle has not seen for generations. I don't see it.

    I see more likely that BoJo rows back. Although quite how that happens goodness only knows. But it's his premiership also don't forget.

    Quite - it’s amazing how people like HYUFD seem oblivious to the fact that Johnson’s burning motivation is to be PM, not to deliver Brexit. It is the latter driving the former, not vice versa, and a Brexit that doesn’t secure his position is useless.

    If he has an election pre Oct 31st and secures a majority then all options become open to him (and with a five year Parliament ahead his position as Tory leader will be secure - the ERG will not have the votes to remove him). An election post Oct 31st with No deal Brexit chaos swirling around him and he has no options at all.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    The BDS is strong with “teen suicide” Adonis:

  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    alex. said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great thread, as ever. For some of the mooted scenarios there has to be an upheaval in British politics the like of which this simple, unprepossessing Isle has not seen for generations. I don't see it.

    I see more likely that BoJo rows back. Although quite how that happens goodness only knows. But it's his premiership also don't forget.

    Quite - it’s amazing how people like HYUFD seem oblivious to the fact that Johnson’s burning motivation is to be PM, not to deliver Brexit. It is the latter driving the former, not vice versa, and a Brexit that doesn’t secure his position is useless.

    If he has an election pre Oct 31st and secures a majority then all options become open to him (and with a five year Parliament ahead his position as Tory leader will be secure - the ERG will not have the votes to remove him). An election post Oct 31st with No deal Brexit chaos swirling around him and he has no options at all.
    The issue is that because he didn't push for an election in July he hasn't got time to get an election prior to October 31st.

    The earliest date realistically is October 10th - and for that date he needs 440 MPs to vote for an election by September 10th - which just isn't going to happen.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    alex. said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great thread, as ever. For some of the mooted scenarios there has to be an upheaval in British politics the like of which this simple, unprepossessing Isle has not seen for generations. I don't see it.

    I see more likely that BoJo rows back. Although quite how that happens goodness only knows. But it's his premiership also don't forget.

    Quite - it’s amazing how people like HYUFD seem oblivious to the fact that Johnson’s burning motivation is to be PM, not to deliver Brexit. It is the latter driving the former, not vice versa, and a Brexit that doesn’t secure his position is useless.

    If he has an election pre Oct 31st and secures a majority then all options become open to him (and with a five year Parliament ahead his position as Tory leader will be secure - the ERG will not have the votes to remove him). An election post Oct 31st with No deal Brexit chaos swirling around him and he has no options at all.
    Indeed no Brexit , no PM Boris.

    Which is why the govt is taking us out on 31/10.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514

    The BDS is strong with “teen suicide” Adonis:

    Adonis is very similar in many crucial ways to Cummings.

    Maybe he just doesn't like all his faults being laid out in sharp relief like this?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169
    TGOHF said:

    alex. said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great thread, as ever. For some of the mooted scenarios there has to be an upheaval in British politics the like of which this simple, unprepossessing Isle has not seen for generations. I don't see it.

    I see more likely that BoJo rows back. Although quite how that happens goodness only knows. But it's his premiership also don't forget.

    Quite - it’s amazing how people like HYUFD seem oblivious to the fact that Johnson’s burning motivation is to be PM, not to deliver Brexit. It is the latter driving the former, not vice versa, and a Brexit that doesn’t secure his position is useless.

    If he has an election pre Oct 31st and secures a majority then all options become open to him (and with a five year Parliament ahead his position as Tory leader will be secure - the ERG will not have the votes to remove him). An election post Oct 31st with No deal Brexit chaos swirling around him and he has no options at all.
    Indeed no Brexit , no PM Boris.

    Which is why the govt is taking us out on 31/10.

    Unless Parliament prevents him. My point is that is not necessarily something he objects to, which is the flaw in assuming that he would follow through on various devices to avert that (ie. proroguing, timing the election (if he has a choice) post rather than pre Oct 31st etc).

    His dream scenario is securing a Parliamentary majority in advance of October 31st. Giving him a theoretical 5 years to resolve the mess.

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    By the way, I can't find any odds for Ken Clarke as next PM. I might give Ladbrokes a call.

    I know it's not very likely but I could see him as a tolerable caretaker to a majority in the HoC whilst a new People's Vote is put through its paces or preparations are made for a Spring GE.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. rkrkrk, sorry for the slightly slow reply.

    A General Election risks no decision at all. There's every chance we get a hung Parliament or one with a tiny majority that can't pass anything.

    Progress in whatever direction needs to be made. The endless dither is ridiculous. That's why I was so surprised May didn't tack on a threat of another referendum to her second deal attempt in the Commons.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    eek said:

    alex. said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great thread, as ever. For some of the mooted scenarios there has to be an upheaval in British politics the like of which this simple, unprepossessing Isle has not seen for generations. I don't see it.

    I see more likely that BoJo rows back. Although quite how that happens goodness only knows. But it's his premiership also don't forget.

    Quite - it’s amazing how people like HYUFD seem oblivious to the fact that Johnson’s burning motivation is to be PM, not to deliver Brexit. It is the latter driving the former, not vice versa, and a Brexit that doesn’t secure his position is useless.

    If he has an election pre Oct 31st and secures a majority then all options become open to him (and with a five year Parliament ahead his position as Tory leader will be secure - the ERG will not have the votes to remove him). An election post Oct 31st with No deal Brexit chaos swirling around him and he has no options at all.
    The issue is that because he didn't push for an election in July he hasn't got time to get an election prior to October 31st.

    The earliest date realistically is October 10th - and for that date he needs 440 MPs to vote for an election by September 10th - which just isn't going to happen.
    I also forgot to say that October 10th is too late as it means Parliament is not in a position to do anything until October 24th which is a bit late if no majority is around..
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869

    Mr. rkrkrk, sorry for the slightly slow reply.

    A General Election risks no decision at all. There's every chance we get a hung Parliament or one with a tiny majority that can't pass anything.

    Progress in whatever direction needs to be made. The endless dither is ridiculous. That's why I was so surprised May didn't tack on a threat of another referendum to her second deal attempt in the Commons.

    She really was her own worst enemy, wasn't she? Months ago she could have put her deal to a People's Vote, alongside Revoke and No Deal - perhaps with a two-stage process. She would have got the ERG on board because of the No Deal option, the Remainers on board because of the Revoke and a large enough number who have held their noses and voted it through.

    Her self-made red lines really were quite bizarre and for the most part totally unnecessary.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    edited August 4

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Its been my view for a while that the only real way out for Bozo is to be forced "against his will" to extend and then play victim in the subsequent GE. Largely because I cannot see any better way out for him.

    He's already made sure that a whole bunch of disgruntled former ministers are on the backbenchers. He's now engaged in winding them up enough to do the right thing....

    edit? afterthought: Maybe it's also the only way to sell a subsequent soft Brexit (assuming a favourable GE) that Bozo probably wants; after nearly losing Brexit altogether MPs might be more amendable to compromise (or he gets a large enough majority)
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120

    I'm just imagining Cummings reading the tweets in response to his Telegraph article and going, "WTF, Fixed Terms Parliament Act", never heard of it before, why did nobody tell me about this? Shit, shit, that's the whole strategy buggered"

    It's more likely he's figured out that there's no actual possible candidate who could win a confidence vote inside 14 days.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    ydoethur said:

    I think too many people are overthinking this.

    The reason Dominic Cummings looks like an incompetent twat with the intellect of a dead stoat and a grasp of key issues that would disgrace a fairly bright three year old - is because he is one.

    Do not mistake cock-up for conspiracy and do not look for a bewildering master strategy where you should just point and groan at incompetence.

    Morning Ydoethur, always the way on here , they put these halfwits on a pedestal , assume they are intelligent , gifted , etc and then down the line the obvious fact that they were just thick , lying , duplicitous cretins has them wailing and gnashing their teeth. Perfect example is Ruth Davidson, feted on here as genius and PM in waiting, now sidelined, hidden in her bunker and deserted by even her own people. Her future is having the embarrassment of having to take a list seat after being trounced at next election, if even she can take the shame.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Give us a clue of the two you are slagging off.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 869
    edited August 4
    IanB2 said:

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Its been my view for a while that the only real way out for Bozo is to be forced "against his will" to extend and then play victim in the subsequent GE. Largely because I cannot see any better way out for him.

    He's already made sure that a whole bunch of disgruntled former ministers are on the backbenchers. He's now engaged in winding them up enough to do the right thing....
    Yes, that's very interesting. The point made below earlier that we should remember for Boris it's all about power first, Brexit itself second, is pertinent here.

    If he goes for a General Election he really does risk losing. So you may well be right. They stoke it all up over the next 4 weeks to the point where Parliament is clearly going to VONC him and so he Extends Article 50 on the grounds that the nasty evil Parliament are opposing the will of the people.

    But the over-thinking point was a good one too. They're in a real bind.

    I know we're not supposed to invoke war metaphors but in situations like this historically leaders have often resorted to going to war against another country. That's always an option ...!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,861
    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.





  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120
    Am I led to understand that the USA had no gun violence prior to Trump? No racial tensions? What did Obama do for Trayvon Martin?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    IanB2 said:

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Its been my view for a while that the only real way out for Bozo is to be forced "against his will" to extend and then play victim in the subsequent GE. Largely because I cannot see any better way out for him.

    He's already made sure that a whole bunch of disgruntled former ministers are on the backbenchers. He's now engaged in winding them up enough to do the right thing....
    Yes, that's very interesting. The point made below earlier that we should remember for Boris it's all about power first, Brexit itself second, is pertinent here.

    If he goes for a General Election he really does risk losing. So you may well be right. They stoke it all up over the next 4 weeks to the point where Parliament is clearly going to VONC him and so he Extends Article 50 on the grounds that the nasty evil Parliament are opposing the will of the people.

    But the over-thinking point was a good one too. They're in a real bind.

    I know we're not supposed to invoke war metaphors but in situations like this historically leaders have often resorted to going to war against another country. That's always an option ...!
    The one thing HY has got right, amid all the nonsense about immediate GEs and NI referendums, is that the Tories see their best route to a majority a re-run of 1983 with their gathering in most of the leave vote while the remain vote is divided. It's been their crooked voting system for generations, and they do understand how it works.

    Hence the frantic thinking taking place on the Remain side about trying to better organise.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    Alastair.

    May I just say how grateful we all should be for your 'musings' which are very interesting and thought provoking. Thank you

    Last night I commented on how I have enjoyed two days away from brexit in our garden and watching the cricket. There is so much to be grateful for and especially as my son in law and his sister face the agonies of telling their dementia suffering mother that she will have to go into care this week because her husband and carer is in hospital and is unlikely to be able to care for her on his return home.

    The discussions last night were frightening and seem to be based on the pro remain pro leave bias of the posters and I decided to leave everyone to it

    I would just say that if Alastair is unable to give definitive advice on where we go from here I certainly do not feel able to either but Cummings, for all his stupidity, seems to be parroting the ERG line that unless legislation is passed to stop it, we are out on a no deal on the 31st October

    I fear he is correct on this and it gives me that 'sinking feeling' that no matter posters various views of how to stop it, it is going to happen unless the EU come to their senses and start talking

    And before we all blame the ERG, who I dislike with a passion, there should be a 'nameplate of shame' on each and every one of the 498 mps who voted for A50 creating the defacto no deal in law, not only in UK law but also in EU law which some may not realise

    Like the football chant 'You do not know what you are doing' is their epitaph
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    Per the current ERG statements there wouldn't be a majority for that in parliament unless lots of Lab leavers flipped, which I'm not seeing.

    Also you'd need an extension to get it done, which Boris has already ruled out.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    edited August 4

    IanB2 said:

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Its been my view for a while that the only real way out for Bozo is to be forced "against his will" to extend and then play victim in the subsequent GE. Largely because I cannot see any better way out for him.

    He's already made sure that a whole bunch of disgruntled former ministers are on the backbenchers. He's now engaged in winding them up enough to do the right thing....
    Yes, that's very interesting. The point made below earlier that we should remember for Boris it's all about power first, Brexit itself second, is pertinent here.

    If he goes for a General Election he really does risk losing. So you may well be right. They stoke it all up over the next 4 weeks to the point where Parliament is clearly going to VONC him and so he Extends Article 50 on the grounds that the nasty evil Parliament are opposing the will of the people.

    But the over-thinking point was a good one too. They're in a real bind.

    I know we're not supposed to invoke war metaphors but in situations like this historically leaders have often resorted to going to war against another country. That's always an option ...!
    Time to slow down on the coffee, you are getting over excited. Who the f**k could the UK go to war with you halfwitted nutter, they could not beat a carpet.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    edited August 4
    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520

    IanB2 said:

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Its been my view for a while that the only real way out for Bozo is to be forced "against his will" to extend and then play victim in the subsequent GE. Largely because I cannot see any better way out for him.

    He's already made sure that a whole bunch of disgruntled former ministers are on the backbenchers. He's now engaged in winding them up enough to do the right thing....
    Yes, that's very interesting. The point made below earlier that we should remember for Boris it's all about power first, Brexit itself second, is pertinent here.

    If he goes for a General Election he really does risk losing. So you may well be right. They stoke it all up over the next 4 weeks to the point where Parliament is clearly going to VONC him and so he Extends Article 50 on the grounds that the nasty evil Parliament are opposing the will of the people.

    But the over-thinking point was a good one too. They're in a real bind.

    I know we're not supposed to invoke war metaphors but in situations like this historically leaders have often resorted to going to war against another country. That's always an option ...!
    With respect this is a very real crisis but reference to war is simply absurd
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120
    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    Their pension funds have rocketed up, because weak Sterling appreciates the value of the foreign earnings that make up 75% of the FTSE. It should in theory drive domestic inflation due to more expensive imports, but for whatever reason that doesn't seem to be happening yet.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893
    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    so have you done this yet Roger

    your affinity with the DE socio economic groups must make this a slam dunk
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 25,520
    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    The flaw in your plan is that the pensioners are drawing their pension (by definition) so are probably protected from any harm unless inflation seriously kicks off).

    Others who haven't started drawing from the pension fund however will be far worse off but there are probably far fewer votes there than from the pensioners themselves.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803

    IanB2 said:

    Such a good thread this morning. Started by Alastair's excellent piece and with some great discussion.

    It hasn't been spoiled by the two resident Alt-Rights who, for me at any rate, just post repeated and repetitive rants (not Richard Tyndall who is usually considered and thought-provoking).

    For the same reason I didn't come on here last night IanB2, so it's interesting you wondered the same about the goading by Johnson-Cummings.

    Its been my view for a while that the only real way out for Bozo is to be forced "against his will" to extend and then play victim in the subsequent GE. Largely because I cannot see any better way out for him.

    He's already made sure that a whole bunch of disgruntled former ministers are on the backbenchers. He's now engaged in winding them up enough to do the right thing....
    Yes, that's very interesting. The point made below earlier that we should remember for Boris it's all about power first, Brexit itself second, is pertinent here.

    If he goes for a General Election he really does risk losing. So you may well be right. They stoke it all up over the next 4 weeks to the point where Parliament is clearly going to VONC him and so he Extends Article 50 on the grounds that the nasty evil Parliament are opposing the will of the people.

    But the over-thinking point was a good one too. They're in a real bind.

    I know we're not supposed to invoke war metaphors but in situations like this historically leaders have often resorted to going to war against another country. That's always an option ...!
    With respect this is a very real crisis but reference to war is simply absurd
    Not really - wars usually occurred because of political pressure from one side made it inevitable.

    Heck WW1 occurred because the terms requested were intentionally so bad no country would accept them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,861
    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    Post No Deal Brexit, all the best dinner party chat will be "Korean cars - amazing! Who knew?" and "I've disovered this fantastic Chilean fizz...."

    But, as I said, leaving it late is the EU standard operating procedure.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,169

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Are they? All I hear from extreme Brexiteers is how we aren’t going to impose any new tariffs on incoming goods...

  • TGOHF said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am becoming more and more convinced that Dominic Cummings is not the genius he, the Telegraph and the Spectator think he is.

    If you'd worked in education you wouldn't need convincing.

    AIUI, his reputation largely rests on his work for the Leave campaign plus, as Dr Y, indicates some highly questionable work at Education.
    Those upset in education were in the supply side.

    Not sure that's entirely the case. The new "big fat" maths courses at GCSE and A Level were a DC obsession, and they're really not popular. They don't really work as exams, either; there are so many questions designed to be hard for grade 7/8/9 candidates, that the mark for a grade 4 pass is absurdly low.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954
    So:

    VONC

    GONU

    Revoke

    GE



  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    The perils of being Sturgeon’s mini-me:

  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801

    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    so have you done this yet Roger

    your affinity with the DE socio economic groups must make this a slam dunk
    I am but a humble executer of other people's campaigns but if the call comes and my £6,000 a day fee (plus 30% surcharge for the devalued £) is forthcoming I will be ready and prepared to answer the call...........
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    Endillion said:

    I'm just imagining Cummings reading the tweets in response to his Telegraph article and going, "WTF, Fixed Terms Parliament Act", never heard of it before, why did nobody tell me about this? Shit, shit, that's the whole strategy buggered"

    It's more likely he's figured out that there's no actual possible candidate who could win a confidence vote inside 14 days.
    Just further to the fracas about this last night -

    It is quite amazing that the Brexiteer faithful are so insistent that it would be impossible for the Queen to appoint a prime minister who would go on to lose a confidence vote. Given that in the circumstances we are talking about, that would have just happened!

    People surely remember the speculation that Johnson would never become PM in the first place because the Queen could not be advised that he would have the support of the House. Still, he did become PM, and that certainly wasn't because his position in the House of Commons strengthened. If parliament hadn't risen almost immediately, he might have been VONCed by now. He may well be VONCed immediately after parliament returns.

    Of course the circumstances were different. He was elected leader of the largest party in the Commons. But the principle is identical. And that party doesn't have a majority, and a number of its MPs are strongly opposed to No Deal.

    And the other point is that - as the briefing posted by Nick Palmer last night shows - unless there is a clear-cut declaration by a group of parties commanding a majority - the procedure by which the Queen would be advised becomes very informal and very uncertain. How many times over the last few months have the results of votes on Brexit been reliably predictable? And even if there were a clear-cut declaration by a group of parties nominally commanding a majority, could anyone be sure that nominal command would translate into an actual majority when the motion was put? Between the Queen appointing Corbyn prime minister and the motion being put, necessarily a government would have to be formed, and the scope for MPs in an exceptionally fragmented hung parliament to change their minds after that process is clear - not just over Brexit, but over any number of other issues.

    I'm afraid that as usual, we have the Brexiteer faithful trumpeting as a fact what they would _like_ to be true, and losing contact with reality in the process.

    But in any case, what is crystal clear is that _if_ the Queen _did_ ask Corbyn to form a government, then he would be prime minister, not Johnson. And even if that government subsequently failed to win a confidence vote, he would remain prime minister throughout the subsequent election campaign, not Johnson.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988

    Foxy said:

    So what advice are they getting in EU capitals that the UK still won't No Deal? Other than relying on the pb.com Brains Trust, naturally...

    Perhaps we ought to turn our minds to what it would take to end this particular game of chicken. The back-stop time limited to five years? With a well-resourced working group on technological solutions to EU borders and trade? Meanwhile, the UK getting on with making trade deals they could sign from 1st November 2019? I suspect that package would get through Westminster. I also suspect our PM would take it as a "win". And let's face it, it's no more of a last-minute trade-off than we have become used to as EU standard operating procedure.

    The net effect would be to ensure that the trade deal needs to be negotiated and signed within five years. If Boris wants to pound his chest some more for the cameras, he can add that at the first sniff of bad faith from Brussels in those negotiations, he will walk away from the deal - in its entirety.

    But we have had three years of the establised orders of London and Brussels telling us none of this is possible. They will lose some face - and some power - if any such deal happened. May's premiership will be judged by history as three wasted years. But hey, what is a bit of egg on face compared to their trade surplus with the UK largely continuing as before, the risk of recession (from Brexit, at least) slain. Because if the EU are not prepared to revisit the Brexit departure arrangements in the light of new circumstances, some might question whether they really are an organistion whose over-riding obligation is looking after the economic interests of their members.

    Those German carmakers and Italian Prosecco farmers are leaving it a little late aren't they?
    But their jobs are under serious threat due to idiotic politicians on both sides of the channel
    Nope, the idiots are all on our side.

    I see no evidence that the EU are perturbed or going to blink.

    No backstop means a hard border as certain as no deal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    Another day in America....(actually it’s probably later the same day....)

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 2,967
    Endillion said:

    Roger said:

    We have a fairly disgusting Rasputin like character a the centre of government. His skill seems to be in marketing with one campaign under his belt.

    Meanwhile the £ has lost 15% of it's value which is likely to double to 30%.

    .....When explained to Hartlepudlian pensioners by marketing people with more than one campaign under their belt that this DOES mean the £ in their pocket purse or pension fund is dropping like a stone they just might start to feel uneasy about what Rasputin and co have been up to.

    Their pension funds have rocketed up, because weak Sterling appreciates the value of the foreign earnings that make up 75% of the FTSE. It should in theory drive domestic inflation due to more expensive imports, but for whatever reason that doesn't seem to be happening yet.
    Quite right, my pension fund has gone up 6% in the last month alone.
This discussion has been closed.