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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T ex

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 6 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T exit the EU by Oct 31st

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,432
    edited August 6
    First.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576
    2nd, like remain
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    Free money on leave on the 31st.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Looks like we are heading toward crossover. Wasn't it a lot less likely than this previously?

    I don't think Boris is bluffing. The other question is can Parliament override Boris and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

    The final question is if the EU is bluffing. Its going to be interesting to see the shoe on the other foot as we hold all the cards now and aren't folding, we are going All In. The EU can insist to their dying breath that the backstop remains, in which case there's No Deal, a hard border, no backstop and they've failed. Or they can fold, agree a transition without a backstop and keep an open border and settle the Irish border in the future negotiations where it should have been settled all along.

    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    Looks like we are heading toward crossover. Wasn't it a lot less likely than this previously?

    I don't think Boris is bluffing. The other question is can Parliament override Boris and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

    The final question is if the EU is bluffing. Its going to be interesting to see the shoe on the other foot as we hold all the cards now and aren't folding, we are going All In. The EU can insist to their dying breath that the backstop remains, in which case there's No Deal, a hard border, no backstop and they've failed. Or they can fold, agree a transition without a backstop and keep an open border and settle the Irish border in the future negotiations where it should have been settled all along.

    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    The game doesn't end on 31st October, Philip. It just gets harder for the UK to play. On 1st November we will become totally reliant on the goodwill of others to keep our economy moving, our shops fully stocked, our hospitals supplied with medicines, our planes in the air, and so on. The EU and the Irish government will also have the ability to decide how quickly they move to a Hard Border in Ireland in the full knowledge that it is the hard borders created at the Channel ports and at our airports that actually matter to the UK. Once we have thrown our cards onto the table on Halloween everyone will be able to see them and nobody will be able to pretend they are aces when, in fact, they are jokers.

    Can I join your poker school?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945


    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    The EU can't seem to accept that parliament has voted down the WA numerous times.

    I'm sorry that they foolishly put faith in the Uk negotiating team's assurances that it would pass but it didn't and won't.

    They either embrace this reality or continue to keep their heads in the sand.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    Scott_P said:
    Back in April when we got the extension it was on the basis of no new talks..

    And I suspect the EU want to know what we want to talk about before talks begin..
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    Don't reckon they're bluffing. It is their ability to pull it off which I question.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:
    Back in April when we got the extension it was on the basis of no new talks..

    And I suspect the EU want to know what we want to talk about before talks begin..
    It's not as if we've upfront, knowing what we want and all that, is it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427
    TGOHF said:

    The EU can't seem to accept that parliament has voted down the WA numerous times.

    What makes you think they haven't accepted it?

    In the words of TTOI, NMFP
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    TGOHF said:


    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    The EU can't seem to accept that parliament has voted down the WA numerous times.

    I'm sorry that they foolishly put faith in the Uk negotiating team's assurances that it would pass but it didn't and won't.

    They either embrace this reality or continue to keep their heads in the sand.
    Why is Parliament voting down the deal the EU's problem? They negotiated a deal in good faith now it's just a matter of the UK deciding what to do when they can't accept it..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576

    Looks like we are heading toward crossover. Wasn't it a lot less likely than this previously?

    I don't think Boris is bluffing. The other question is can Parliament override Boris and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

    The final question is if the EU is bluffing. Its going to be interesting to see the shoe on the other foot as we hold all the cards now and aren't folding, we are going All In. The EU can insist to their dying breath that the backstop remains, in which case there's No Deal, a hard border, no backstop and they've failed. Or they can fold, agree a transition without a backstop and keep an open border and settle the Irish border in the future negotiations where it should have been settled all along.

    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    The game doesn't end on 31st October, Philip. It just gets harder for the UK to play. On 1st November we will become totally reliant on the goodwill of others to keep our economy moving, our shops fully stocked, our hospitals supplied with medicines, our planes in the air, and so on. The EU and the Irish government will also have the ability to decide how quickly they move to a Hard Border in Ireland in the full knowledge that it is the hard borders created at the Channel ports and at our airports that actually matter to the UK. Once we have thrown our cards onto the table on Halloween everyone will be able to see them and nobody will be able to pretend they are aces when, in fact, they are jokers.

    Can I join your poker school?

    I ran into a bigger pair in Dublin 13 years ago.

    https://www.pokerstars.com/en/blog/2006/ept-dublin-no-blunders-from-blundell-032294.shtml?no_redirect=1
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 466

    we hold all the cards now

    I thought we held all the cards from the beginning? What's changed?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636
    I've made this point before but 53 no-deal pounds is less than 47 extend-or-revoke pounds, so this market is pointing at the exit happening by Oct 31st.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576

    I've made this point before but 53 no-deal pounds is less than 47 extend-or-revoke pounds, so this market is pointing at the exit happening by Oct 31st.

    The market also thought Brexit Party were an 80% chance in Peterborough, Kamala Harris 33% for the Democratic nomination despite being 4th or 5th in the polling, Marco Rubio, Andrea Leadsom, I could go on.
    Fwiw I have no idea if we'll leave on 31st.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    Pulpstar said:

    I've made this point before but 53 no-deal pounds is less than 47 extend-or-revoke pounds, so this market is pointing at the exit happening by Oct 31st.

    The market also thought Brexit Party were an 80% chance in Peterborough, Kamala Harris 33% for the Democratic nomination despite being 4th or 5th in the polling, Marco Rubio, Andrea Leadsom, I could go on.
    Fwiw I have no idea if we'll leave on 31st.
    We leave with No Deal on 31st October we end up joining the Euro.

    The delta between hard Leavers and hard Remainers is far smaller than they both like to think. It’s like a horseshoe, not a spectrum.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    Looks like we are heading toward crossover. Wasn't it a lot less likely than this previously?

    I don't think Boris is bluffing. The other question is can Parliament override Boris and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

    The final question is if the EU is bluffing. Its going to be interesting to see the shoe on the other foot as we hold all the cards now and aren't folding, we are going All In. The EU can insist to their dying breath that the backstop remains, in which case there's No Deal, a hard border, no backstop and they've failed. Or they can fold, agree a transition without a backstop and keep an open border and settle the Irish border in the future negotiations where it should have been settled all along.

    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    The game doesn't end on 31st October, Philip. It just gets harder for the UK to play. On 1st November we will become totally reliant on the goodwill of others to keep our economy moving, our shops fully stocked, our hospitals supplied with medicines, our planes in the air, and so on. The EU and the Irish government will also have the ability to decide how quickly they move to a Hard Border in Ireland in the full knowledge that it is the hard borders created at the Channel ports and at our airports that actually matter to the UK. Once we have thrown our cards onto the table on Halloween everyone will be able to see them and nobody will be able to pretend they are aces when, in fact, they are jokers.

    Can I join your poker school?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/past-six-days/2019-08-03/business/britain-can-t-afford-to-bring-a-knife-to-the-brexit-gunfight-with-brussels-sf5b856qp

    The article lists a few of the issue which will arise post 31 October. If this is holding all the cards, I’d hate to think what a bad hand looks like.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Looks like we are heading toward crossover. Wasn't it a lot less likely than this previously?

    I don't think Boris is bluffing. The other question is can Parliament override Boris and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

    The final question is if the EU is bluffing. Its going to be interesting to see the shoe on the other foot as we hold all the cards now and aren't folding, we are going All In. The EU can insist to their dying breath that the backstop remains, in which case there's No Deal, a hard border, no backstop and they've failed. Or they can fold, agree a transition without a backstop and keep an open border and settle the Irish border in the future negotiations where it should have been settled all along.

    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    The game doesn't end on 31st October, Philip. It just gets harder for the UK to play. On 1st November we will become totally reliant on the goodwill of others to keep our economy moving, our shops fully stocked, our hospitals supplied with medicines, our planes in the air, and so on. The EU and the Irish government will also have the ability to decide how quickly they move to a Hard Border in Ireland in the full knowledge that it is the hard borders created at the Channel ports and at our airports that actually matter to the UK. Once we have thrown our cards onto the table on Halloween everyone will be able to see them and nobody will be able to pretend they are aces when, in fact, they are jokers.

    Can I join your poker school?

    It doesn't matter if they were jokers or "7 2 Off" [I've never played poker with jokers by the way] the hand will be over and we will move on to the next hand.

    Any disruption to the UK will occur starting 1st November but the further we gets from 1st November the less disruptive it will be. Supply chains will adapt, people will move on, life will go on. It will be our new normal.

    Meanwhile they face a dilemma. If they find a technical solution to keep the border open then fantastic, they've found the "unicorn" and it was real, no need for a backstop. If they erect a hard border and we still insist there's no backstop then the only way to remove a deal will be a deal and we will be equals in the negotiation. Either way so long as we don't fold we win compared to now.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Streeter said:

    we hold all the cards now

    I thought we held all the cards from the beginning? What's changed?
    May tried to fold our hand but Parliament stopped her from doing so. Boris has picked the cards back up and pushed All In.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427

    Any disruption to the UK will occur starting 1st November but the further we gets from 1st November the less disruptive it will be.

    Another Brexiteer fantasy about to be dashed on the rocks of reality.

    Christmas will be peak chaos
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    I've made this point before but 53 no-deal pounds is less than 47 extend-or-revoke pounds, so this market is pointing at the exit happening by Oct 31st.

    LOL!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636

    I've made this point before but 53 no-deal pounds is less than 47 extend-or-revoke pounds, so this market is pointing at the exit happening by Oct 31st.

    LOL!
    It's a serious point!
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 466

    Streeter said:

    we hold all the cards now

    I thought we held all the cards from the beginning? What's changed?
    May tried to fold our hand but Parliament stopped her from doing so. Boris has picked the cards back up and pushed All In.
    No no no. You said we hold all the cards 'now'. That means we didn't hold them at the start. What's changed?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    BTW, a GONU doesn't require unity, it requires 50%+1

    GOMOO ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Scott_P said:

    Any disruption to the UK will occur starting 1st November but the further we gets from 1st November the less disruptive it will be.

    Another Brexiteer fantasy about to be dashed on the rocks of reality.

    Christmas will be peak chaos
    No, November will be.

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    Looks like we are heading toward crossover. Wasn't it a lot less likely than this previously?

    I don't think Boris is bluffing. The other question is can Parliament override Boris and that is looking increasingly unlikely.

    The settled all along.

    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    The game doesn't end on 31st October, Philip. It just gets harder for the UK to play. On 1st November we will become totally reliant on the goodwill of others to keep our economy moving, our shops fully stocked, our hospitals supplied with medicines, our planes in the air, and so on. The EU and the Irish government will also have the ability to decide how quickly they move to a Hard Border in Ireland in the full knowledge that it is the hard borders created at the Channel ports and at our airports that actually matter to the UK. Once we have thrown our cards onto the table on Halloween everyone will be able to see them and nobody will be able to pretend they are aces when, in fact, they are jokers.

    Can I join your poker school?

    It doesn't matter if they were jokers or "7 2 Off" [I've never played poker with jokers by the way] the hand will be over and we will move on to the next hand.

    Any disruption to the UK will occur starting 1st November but the further we gets from 1st November the less disruptive it will be. Supply chains will adapt, people will move on, life will go on. It will be our new normal.

    Meanwhile they face a dilemma. If they find a technical solution to keep the border open then fantastic, they've found the "unicorn" and it was real, no need for a backstop. If they erect a hard border and we still insist there's no backstop then the only way to remove a deal will be a deal and we will be equals in the negotiation. Either way so long as we don't fold we win compared to now.

    That all depends on what you think our situation is now. I am not sure it is worse than being entirely dependent on the goodwill of other countries and unable to conclude trade agreements with our biggest treading partners, not to mention having to deal with the real life problems those "adaptations" you mention involve.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    IanB2 said:

    BTW, a GONU doesn't require unity, it requires 50%+1

    GOMOO ?
    That would be a cow of a job to manage,
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    BTW, a GONU doesn't require unity, it requires 50%+1

    GOMOO ?
    That would be a cow of a job to manage,
    But better than any udder solution.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    edited August 6
    Streeter said:

    Streeter said:

    we hold all the cards now

    I thought we held all the cards from the beginning? What's changed?
    May tried to fold our hand but Parliament stopped her from doing so. Boris has picked the cards back up and pushed All In.
    No no no. You said we hold all the cards 'now'. That means we didn't hold them at the start. What's changed?
    We held them at the start. Cameron put down the cards after the vote and said he wasn't playing anymore. May picked the cards up. The EU bet big on the backstop and May went to fold but Parliament stopped her hand. We then hesitated for ages with the clock running, before paralysed May left and put the hand back down. Boris now has the cards. Same cards we had before and it doesn't matter if the EU has bet big, we are going over the top All In.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    BTW, a GONU doesn't require unity, it requires 50%+1

    GOMOO ?
    That would be a cow of a job to manage,
    But better than any udder solution.
    Stop milking my puns!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    Boris Johnson may not be bluffing. But the matter is probably not in his hands anyway.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    FPT

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    All to avoid a fine of less than £100.

    Sometimes you just despair.
    I would have despaired if she had not been struck off.
    I'm not arguing, I'm just stunned that anybody could throw away so much when they would have gained so little.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    eek said:

    TGOHF said:


    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    The EU can't seem to accept that parliament has voted down the WA numerous times.

    I'm sorry that they foolishly put faith in the Uk negotiating team's assurances that it would pass but it didn't and won't.

    They either embrace this reality or continue to keep their heads in the sand.
    Why is Parliament voting down the deal the EU's problem? They negotiated a deal in good faith now it's just a matter of the UK deciding what to do when they can't accept it..
    Because any agreement must go through Parliament so what they negotiated is dead. They can keep flogging a dead horse or come up with a Plan B.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427

    Boris Johnson may not be bluffing. But the matter is probably not in his hands anyway.

    I am not convinced he knows if he is bluffing or not, but the Spectator article is informative.

    His million to one chance comment has persuaded some people that he is bluffing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    Why would the roads be blocked?

    OK, so the M20 might be going through Operation Stack, but that's hardly going to affect Spaghetti Junction, is it?

    That said, Junction 8 will probably still be snarled up unless something dramatic happens to the roadworks at Oldbury. But that's nothing to do with Brexit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    Scott_P said:

    Any disruption to the UK will occur starting 1st November but the further we gets from 1st November the less disruptive it will be.

    Another Brexiteer fantasy about to be dashed on the rocks of reality.

    Christmas will be peak chaos
    No, November will be.

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.
    Given what a few days financial disruption from Black Wednesday did for the Tories....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111
    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    If the EU made a formal offer, surely the government couldn’t avoid putting it to parliament to decide.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 466

    Streeter said:

    Streeter said:

    we hold all the cards now

    I thought we held all the cards from the beginning? What's changed?
    May tried to fold our hand but Parliament stopped her from doing so. Boris has picked the cards back up and pushed All In.
    No no no. You said we hold all the cards 'now'. That means we didn't hold them at the start. What's changed?
    We held them at the start. Cameron put down the cards after the vote and said he wasn't playing anymore. May picked the cards up. The EU bet big on the backstop and May went to fold but Parliament stopped her hand. We then hesitated for ages with the clock running, before paralysed May left and put the hand back down. Boris now has the cards. Same cards we had before and it doesn't matter if the EU has bet big, we are going over the top All In.
    And so we hold all the cards and are now prepared to play them, I see. Which can only mean the EU holds no cards whatsoever. They are powerless in this game and we are able achieve anything we wish.

    Have I understood the power balance in these negotiations (whenever they begin) correctly?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 152
    Scott_P said:
    Delaying Brexit is a perfectly sensible thing to do. Revoking Brexit without even a second vote would be completely undemocratic.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945

    eek said:

    TGOHF said:


    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    The EU can't seem to accept that parliament has voted down the WA numerous times.

    I'm sorry that they foolishly put faith in the Uk negotiating team's assurances that it would pass but it didn't and won't.

    They either embrace this reality or continue to keep their heads in the sand.
    Why is Parliament voting down the deal the EU's problem? They negotiated a deal in good faith now it's just a matter of the UK deciding what to do when they can't accept it..
    Because any agreement must go through Parliament so what they negotiated is dead. They can keep flogging a dead horse or come up with a Plan B.
    Indeed - Boris should be shouting louder about their anti democratic intransigence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    If the EU made a formal offer, surely the government couldn’t avoid putting it to parliament to decide.
    All Boris has to do is put it to Parliament in his normal manner and after five hours, he will still not have got to the point and it will have run out of time.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    edited August 6
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
    The only way the Irish won't be using us a rat run will be because Kent is a car park..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    Nonsense. We can buy presents, not every present may be on the shelf in all stores but that won't be unprecedented. A couple of years ago my wife wanted to get my daughter a Hatchimal for Christmas which was that years must-have but they were impossible to find on the shelves.

    Food - So are we going to have lamb going to waste or no food? Make your mind up. This is a nonsense.

    Roads blocked? What roads? None of my family live in Kent, I don't see why the M6 will be any more blocked than it normally is.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217
    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    Does that take us to @williamglenn winning his bet territory?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,253
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    If the EU made a formal offer, surely the government couldn’t avoid putting it to parliament to decide.
    By what mechanism? Parliament doesn't do the negotiations.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,253
    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    Interesting. I though the EU were boasting about how they were ready for no deal.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    Scott_P said:
    Well quite. That “once in a generation” thing was an off the cuff remark. Doesn’t stop it being a favourite Unionist meme.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    Interesting. I though the EU were boasting about how they were ready for no deal.
    They are even more ready for us to extend (despite all the HY crap about Macron and his veto)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    A disorderly no-deal Brexit Christmas would be like an Advent calendar of shit, with new horrors every day.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    Does that take us to @williamglenn winning his bet territory?
    If it's December 31st then we'll need a stewards' enquiry.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    edited August 6

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    Nonsense. We can buy presents, not every present may be on the shelf in all stores but that won't be unprecedented. A couple of years ago my wife wanted to get my daughter a Hatchimal for Christmas which was that years must-have but they were impossible to find on the shelves.

    Food - So are we going to have lamb going to waste or no food? Make your mind up. This is a nonsense.

    Roads blocked? What roads? None of my family live in Kent, I don't see why the M6 will be any more blocked than it normally is.
    As if Amazon aren’t going to supply Chinese assembled toys and electronics for Xmas.

    Our turkey comes from a local farm.

    Not everyone wants a crate of fois gras for Xmas
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    Pulpstar said:

    Safest of safe havens ? Swiss 50 year bond yield is now negative.

    Man the lifeboats. Women and children first.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    Does that take us to @williamglenn winning his bet territory?
    It will be upto edmundintokyo to determine that.

    We would Brexit as the clock strikes midnight 1 January 2020 CET, or 23:00 31 December 2019 GMT. I think that should be settled as a tied bet and thus void.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    Does that take us to @williamglenn winning his bet territory?

    1st Jan, as I recall. Provided he can find someone willing to concede that they are SeanT.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,432

    A disorderly no-deal Brexit Christmas would be like an Advent calendar of shit, with new horrors every day.

    Will the football keep going? That's the benchmark, in my opinion.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
    The only way the Irish won't be using us a rat run will be because Kent is a car park..

    90% of Irish export containers travel via or to the Uk.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,368
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    Interesting. I though the EU were boasting about how they were ready for no deal.
    Remember, on the other side of the channel people are still capable of logic and reasoning. Why in heaven's name wouldn't you take your time over a big and difficult project on which there is no particular pressure to finish by a particular date?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    tlg86 said:

    A disorderly no-deal Brexit Christmas would be like an Advent calendar of shit, with new horrors every day.

    Will the football keep going? That's the benchmark, in my opinion.
    The England cricket team are in NZ - can’t see the satellite signals being held up in Calais.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
    The only way the Irish won't be using us a rat run will be because Kent is a car park..
    Tough luck for the citizens of Kent. Life goes on for everyone else.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
    The only way the Irish won't be using us a rat run will be because Kent is a car park..
    Tough luck for the citizens of Kent. Life goes on for everyone else.
    It has alternately been argued that the non-tariff barriers to export mean that exporting will plummet and traffic to the ports will dry up.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217

    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
    The only way the Irish won't be using us a rat run will be because Kent is a car park..
    Tough luck for the citizens of Kent. Life goes on for everyone else.
    Rump post Brexit UK seems to be shrinking by the day.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    Interesting. I though the EU were boasting about how they were ready for no deal.
    The idea that giving an extension is an example of EU capitulation is one of the strangest recurrent Brexiteer memes.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060

    Scott_P said:

    Any disruption to the UK will occur starting 1st November but the further we gets from 1st November the less disruptive it will be.

    Another Brexiteer fantasy about to be dashed on the rocks of reality.

    Christmas will be peak chaos
    No, November will be.

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.
    Maybe we'll be eating our young by then.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    Pulpstar said:

    I've made this point before but 53 no-deal pounds is less than 47 extend-or-revoke pounds, so this market is pointing at the exit happening by Oct 31st.

    The market also thought Brexit Party were an 80% chance in Peterborough, Kamala Harris 33% for the Democratic nomination despite being 4th or 5th in the polling, Marco Rubio, Andrea Leadsom, I could go on.
    Fwiw I have no idea if we'll leave on 31st.
    Victor Chandler very stupidly offered me 50/1 against SNP to win Glasgow Anniesland in 2011. Bill Kid won by 7 votes... and Victor Chandler unilaterally closed my account.

    Markets are not predictions.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427

    Well quite. That “once in a generation” thing was an off the cuff remark. Doesn’t stop it being a favourite Unionist meme.

    Off the cuff? It was in the fucking whitepaper.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607
    TGOHF said:
    Hmm. Either this a concerted attempt by the government to paint the EU as the intransigent bad guys or panic is starting to set in.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452
    Scott_P said:

    the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos

    I suppose I'll just have to grin and bear it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
    The only way the Irish won't be using us a rat run will be because Kent is a car park..
    Tough luck for the citizens of Kent. Life goes on for everyone else.
    Rump post Brexit UK seems to be shrinking by the day.
    Kent will remain part of Brexit UK and overwhelmingly voted for Brexit don't forget.

    Kent also struggles with traffic problems whenever the French decide to go on strike, so its far from unprecedented for them to have traffic. I'm sure people living in Kent probably are used to adapting to traffic issues.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452

    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
    The only way the Irish won't be using us a rat run will be because Kent is a car park..
    Tough luck for the citizens of Kent. Life goes on for everyone else.
    It's the care and consideration that Brexiteers display for their fellow citizens that really makes me well up.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    TGOHF said:
    Hmm. Either this a concerted attempt by the government to paint the EU as the intransigent bad guys or panic is starting to set in.
    Well its not panic.

    Win/win for the government. If the EU blinks they win overwhelmingly and Boris is a hero. If the EU doesn't we want the EU to be the intransigent bad guys. Either way it works.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427

    Either this a concerted attempt by the government to paint the EU as the intransigent bad guys or panic is starting to set in.

    It is unquestionably a concerted attempt by the Brexiteers to paint the EU as the intransigent bad guys, but panic may also be setting in as people see through the transparent spin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    Scott_P said:

    Well quite. That “once in a generation” thing was an off the cuff remark. Doesn’t stop it being a favourite Unionist meme.

    Off the cuff? It was in the fucking whitepaper.
    Scott - Has your own view on Scottish independence changed at all due to Brexit? Would you consider supporting it in the event of No Deal, for example?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
    The only way the Irish won't be using us a rat run will be because Kent is a car park..
    Tough luck for the citizens of Kent. Life goes on for everyone else.
    It's the care and consideration that Brexiteers display for their fellow citizens that really makes me well up.
    Kent overwhelmingly voted for Brexit despite pre-referendum warnings they would be at the frontline of any chaos. A little bit of traffic isn't reason to panic.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427
    These guys really, really, really want to negotiate. Honest



    The EU are not the bad guys, and the public knows it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,079
    edited August 6
    Scott_P said:

    These guys really, really, really want to negotiate. Honest

    twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433

    The EU are not the bad guys, and the public knows it.

    Sone of the things EU have demanded have been incredibly petty.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Scott_P said:

    These guys really, really, really want to negotiate. Honest



    The EU are not the bad guys, and the public knows it.

    You've lost and the public knows it.

    Suck it up, buttercup.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217

    eek said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    We Brexit on Halloween, November will be full of stories of chaos. Helicopters flying over Kent filming the traffic. December however is Christmas. People are too distracted with their own lives, bothered by presents and family and life shuts down anyway. Many plants shut down between Christmas and New Year, traffic becomes about meeting family. Then we get to the New Year and we move on with new beginnings.

    At Christmas they can't buy presents, or food, and the family can't visit because the roads are blocked.

    Peak chaos
    But the roads free of Irish HGVs using England as a cheap rat run.
    The only way the Irish won't be using us a rat run will be because Kent is a car park..
    Tough luck for the citizens of Kent. Life goes on for everyone else.
    It's the care and consideration that Brexiteers display for their fellow citizens that really makes me well up.
    Kent overwhelmingly voted for Brexit despite pre-referendum warnings they would be at the frontline of any chaos. A little bit of traffic isn't reason to panic.
    Yeah, fuck 'em.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,741
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    The EU claims they will offer a three month transition to No Deal. It would take a brave even more insane than we thought government to reject that extension.

    Does that take us to @williamglenn winning his bet territory?
    It's like remay-ay-ayne on your Brexit day!
    Isn't it Byronic, don't you think?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 3,213

    Scott_P said:

    These guys really, really, really want to negotiate. Honest



    The EU are not the bad guys, and the public knows it.

    You've lost and the public knows it.

    Suck it up, buttercup.
    We are all the losers thanks to thick wankers like yourself.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 152
    edited August 6
    Scott_P said:

    These guys really, really, really want to negotiate. Honest



    The EU are not the bad guys, and the public knows it.

    Maybe neither the UK or the EU are "the bad guys" and we should all stop being so hyperbolic about everything? Nobody on either side is supporting violence. It is just regular differences of opinion.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586

    TGOHF said:
    Hmm. Either this a concerted attempt by the government to paint the EU as the intransigent bad guys or panic is starting to set in.
    I seem to recall that the UK has also said that it's up to the EU to come up with another deal. We seem to forget that we had a Deal; there were aspects we didn't like, but we had one. Then Parliament, as a collective reprinting the myriad wishes of the UK citizens said it wasn't acceptable. Surely it's therefore up to the UK Government to put forward an alternative.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427

    Scott - Has your own view on Scottish independence changed at all due to Brexit? Would you consider supporting it in the event of No Deal, for example?

    I regard Separation as a tragedy, in the same way I regard Brexit as a tragedy.

    I do not support either. I don't think either will benefit those who would have it wished upon them, advocated by people who seek personal advantage at their cost.

    Both are emotional impulses, not rational events. Logic and reason have ceased to have any place in either debate.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    BTW, a GONU doesn't require unity, it requires 50%+1

    GOMOO ?
    That would be a cow of a job to manage,
    But better than any udder solution.
    Stop milking my puns!
    Next he will be creaming them
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217
    Gabs2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    These guys really, really, really want to negotiate. Honest



    The EU are not the bad guys, and the public knows it.

    Maybe neither the UK or the EU are "the bad guys" and we should all stop being so hyperbolic about everything?
    OH NO!!!

    A voice of reason.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,646

    TGOHF said:
    Hmm. Either this a concerted attempt by the government to paint the EU as the intransigent bad guys or panic is starting to set in.
    It's an election campaign. Very exciting. Takes me back to the glory days 40 years ago.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    Scott_P said:

    Well quite. That “once in a generation” thing was an off the cuff remark. Doesn’t stop it being a favourite Unionist meme.

    Off the cuff? It was in the fucking whitepaper.
    Scott - Has your own view on Scottish independence changed at all due to Brexit? Would you consider supporting it in the event of No Deal, for example?
    Why would he care living outside Scotland
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    BTW, a GONU doesn't require unity, it requires 50%+1

    GOMOO ?
    That would be a cow of a job to manage,
    But better than any udder solution.
    Stop milking my puns!
    Next he will be creaming them
    I was ignoring him, for posting nothing butter load of bull.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,253
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    Well quite. That “once in a generation” thing was an off the cuff remark. Doesn’t stop it being a favourite Unionist meme.

    Off the cuff? It was in the fucking whitepaper.
    Scott - Has your own view on Scottish independence changed at all due to Brexit? Would you consider supporting it in the event of No Deal, for example?
    Why would he care living outside Scotland
    The proprietor if Wings would like a word with you, amongst others.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    TGOHF said:
    Hmm. Either this a concerted attempt by the government to paint the EU as the intransigent bad guys or panic is starting to set in.
    Gove is an absolute balloon
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427
    malcolmg said:

    Why would he care living outside Scotland

    I care about more than just me. A concept you seem to struggle with.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 42

    Or they can fold, agree a transition without a backstop and keep an open border and settle the Irish border in the future negotiations where it should have been settled all along.

    The EU's stance was always illogical, the only defence to it was that they had so much strength that the UK had to fold. But it doesn't matter in poker if you are dominant chip leader, if your opposition goes All In you are forced to react.

    Or the ERG et al could have folded, agreed a transition with a backstop and kept an open border and settled the Irish border to replace the backstop (easily, with technology - or so they say!) in the future negotiations.

    The ERG's stance was always illogical, if the technological solutions exist or will soon exist to have an open border in Ireland without a customs union then the backstop was a non-issue.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    TGOHF said:
    Hmm. Either this a concerted attempt by the government to paint the EU as the intransigent bad guys or panic is starting to set in.
    Well its not panic.

    Win/win for the government. If the EU blinks they win overwhelmingly and Boris is a hero. If the EU doesn't we want the EU to be the intransigent bad guys. Either way it works.

    Only if the public blames the EU and does not expect the government to have delivered the no problem No Deal it promised.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060
    Gabs2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    These guys really, really, really want to negotiate. Honest



    The EU are not the bad guys, and the public knows it.

    Maybe neither the UK or the EU are "the bad guys" and we should all stop being so hyperbolic about everything? Nobody on either side is supporting violence. It is just regular differences of opinion.
    Brexit porn is as popular as climate change porn.
This discussion has been closed.