Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T ex

12467

Comments

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,832
    Anorak said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    These guys really, really, really want to negotiate. Honest

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433

    The EU are not the bad guys, and the public knows it.

    You've lost and the public knows it.

    Suck it up, buttercup.
    We are all the losers thanks to thick wankers like yourself.
    You may be losing but I feel like I'm winning. I've been an almost lone voice on this site over the last 12 months arguing against the backstop. Now things are finally going the way I feel like I was almost uniquely arguing for. I'm quite content with that thank you very much.

    If we manage to leave without a backstop then you heard it here first. :smile:
    How many avoidable deaths would you regard as an acceptable number to secure no deal Brexit?
    There is no answer to that question. We'll both never know if there are any deats due to Brexit, deaths vary every year and I expect a bad winter flu season will be worse.

    Secondly, there is no death toll that makes sacrificing democracy acceptable.

    Finally I don't want a no deal Brexit, my preference is a backstopless deal Brexit. My order of preference, as stated her before is:

    Good deal > No Deal > Revoke > Bad Deal.
    Your callous lack of understanding for Ireland is appalling. Do you wants the troubles to return?
    "Secondly, there is no death toll that makes sacrificing democracy acceptable."

    Philip would happily allow the entire country to dissolve into a post-apocalyptic wasteland if it was self-governing and free of the EU. Quite literally, as the above quote shows. A return to the troubles, and the random murder and maiming of men, women and children wouldn't even register. It's the behaviour of a psychopath.
    The people to blame for killing and terrorism are the killers, terrorrists and their supporters. No one else.
    How facile.

    Tell you what, I'll walk round Bradford wearing a "Mohammad was a ****" sandwich board and a kippah. If I get punched (or worse) then it's solely the fault of those assaulting me, is it?
    Do you think the IRA would be justified in killing people, if Brexit finally takes place?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:



    Indeed.

    RobD said:



    Precisely.

    So you're agreed.....
    haha - I think you'll find that he agreed with me.

    :wink:
    I’ll have you know that I actually agreed with the statement that contradicted your earlier post. :smiley::p
    I'm not at all sure that I have ever said that customs posts were banned under the GFA. Not today (although I look forward to you producing the posts when I indeed did do this) nor in the three headers I wrote on the subject for PB.
  • Options

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.

    The only way you get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland is if it has support in both communities. There is majority support for the backstop. I am afraid that’s not a lie, it’s a fact. Just because you believe people in Northern Ireland are sectarian bigots doesn’t mean that they are.

  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Scott_P said:

    These guys really, really, really want to negotiate. Honest

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433

    The EU are not the bad guys, and the public knows it.

    You've lost and the public knows it.

    Suck it up, buttercup.
    We are all the losers thanks to thick wankers like yourself.
    You may be losing but I feel like I'm winning. I've been an almost lone voice on this site over the last 12 months arguing against the backstop. Now things are finally going the way I feel like I was almost uniquely arguing for. I'm quite content with that thank you very much.

    If we manage to leave without a backstop then you heard it here first. :smile:
    How many avoidable deaths would you regard as an acceptable number to secure no deal Brexit?
    There is no answer to that question. We'll both never
    Secondly, there is no death toll that makes sacrificing democracy acceptable.

    Finally I don't want a no deal Brexit, my preference is a backstopless deal Brexit. My order of preference, as stated her before is:

    Good deal > No Deal > Revoke > Bad Deal.
    Your callous lack of understanding for Ireland is appalling. Do you wants the troubles to return?
    "Secondly, there is no death toll that makes sacrificing democracy acceptable."

    Philip would he EU. Quite literally, as the abovend children wouldn't even register. It's the behaviour of a psychopath.
    The people to blame for killing and terrorism are the killers, terrorrists and their supporters. No one else.
    How facile.

    Tell you what, I'll walk round Bradford wearing a "Mohammad was a ****" sandwich board and a kippah. If I get punched (or worse) then it's solely the fault of those assaulting me, is it?
    Yes. Just like if a woman walks around in a short skirt and gets raped. Stop victim blaming.
    You have some very regressive views if you think those are comparable
    Taking away the sandwich board, you think wearing a kippah justifies assault?
    No. Neither does the sandwich board in fact. But it (the sandwich board) is clearly inciting a row, which in this hypothetical then gets escalated to physical violence. By comparison a short skirt isn't inciting anything
  • Options
    What's happened to my 20/20 - When's kick-off???
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    No Deal Brexit 2019 - 2.68

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.156586178

    Grab it like it's hot

    I may be getting old and hazy, but I am pretty sure that only a couple of days ago we were being told LOUDLY and CLEARLY that Johnson would under no circumstances commence negotiations with the EU unless they removed the backstop immediately as a pre-condition.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,156

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited August 2019
    I was taking a break for the day, but I decided to pop back whilst waiting on a delivery.

    Wow!

    This place is fast becoming a showcase for the intolerance of the alt-right. If the country follows PB's lead then in a few weeks I dread to think what state the UK will be in.

    I know many posters put reasonable posts, but the reactions to such posts ...

    Unbelievable!
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
  • Options

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    No Deal Brexit 2019 - 2.68

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.156586178

    Grab it like it's hot

    I may be getting old and hazy, but I am pretty sure that only a couple of days ago we were being told LOUDLY and CLEARLY that Johnson would under no circumstances commence negotiations with the EU unless they removed the backstop immediately as a pre-condition.
    Yes. What's your point? The EU are refusing to negotiate.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:


    Philip would happily allow the entire country to dissolve into a post-apocalyptic wasteland if it was self-governing and free of the EU. Quite literally, as the above quote shows. A return to the troubles, and the random murder and maiming of men, women and children wouldn't even register. It's the behaviour of a psychopath.

    The people to blame for killing and terrorism are the killers, terrorrists and their supporters. No one else.
    How facile.

    Tell you what, I'll walk round Bradford wearing a "Mohammad was a ****" sandwich board and a kippah. If I get punched (or worse) then it's solely the fault of those assaulting me, is it?
    Yes. Just like if a woman walks around in a short skirt and gets raped. Stop victim blaming.
    You have some very regressive views if you think those are comparable
    Taking away the sandwich board, you think wearing a kippah justifies assault?
    Of course not, just as wearing a short skirt doesn't. That doesn't change the reality that it would be taken as an aggravating factor by those most offended by the sandwich board.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,930
    edited August 2019

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
  • Options

    Proroguing Parliament would inflict on the country a policy with no mandate and without support in Parliament with effects that would endure for a generation. It's not "suspending democracy for a few weeks", it's an abandonment of democracy.

    Conversely, the backstop is merely a temporary holding position pending a permanent solution, which headbanging Leavers airily assure us is a trivial matter to resolve. There's nothing permanent about it at all. It was agreed to under a democratically secured mandate and negotiated by a democratically elected government.

    You seem to have no concept of what democracy is.

    You may prioritise this one policy that proroguing Parliament would bring about, but you forget that it will only come about because Parliament voted to make exiting the EU our law that it would occur.

    Any law changes that occur under the backstop won't be approved by Parliament. Give me a democratic justification for that please.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,156

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    On Mr Johnson's terms even if that were so, we are still left with 'no deal'
  • Options
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
  • Options

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,105

    IanB2 said:

    I've made this point before but 53 no-deal pounds is less than 47 extend-or-revoke pounds, so this market is pointing at the exit happening by Oct 31st.

    Does this interpretation hold? Couldn't you simply hedge the FX impact of deal/no deal, rendering the payout under the two outcomes independent of the value of GBP? In other words, if you are betting USD then whether you choose to make the bet just on the Brexit outcome or a combined bet on Brexit plus the value of GBPUSD is up to you, and so the Brexit portion of the bet should be a clean measure of subjective probabilities.
    It only makes sense for someone betting from abroad and place their stake in £. Which must be a tiny minority of the Uk betting market.
    It makes sense for anyone concerned about the value of GBP under the two scenarios. Even if you are UK based. The point I was trying to make was that it was mistaken to view the odds as skewed by the exchange rate implications of Brexit, because those implications could be hedged against when placing the bet. That is my contention anyway, I might be wrong.
    The giveaway that there's something wonky is that if you had a USD market with the same odds as the UK market you'd have an arb, because you could put pounds on the UK extend/revoke market and dollars on the US No Deal market then end up with the same or more pounds whatever happened. This proves the USD and GBP markets should have different odds.
    You are right. Thankfully I don't bet! The two markets would have to show different odds. But would the "true" odds be somewhere in between the two?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,994

    I was taking a break for the day, but I decided to pop back whilst waiting on a delivery.

    Wow!

    This place is fast becoming a showcase for the intolerance of the alt-right. If the country follows PB's lead then in a few weeks I dread to think what state the UK will be in.

    I know many posters put reasonable posts, but the reactions to such posts ...

    Unbelievable!

    It's time to stop singing and start swinging... Malcolm X
  • Options
    Anorak said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:


    Philip would happily allow the entire country to dissolve into a post-apocalyptic wasteland if it was self-governing and free of the EU. Quite literally, as the above quote shows. A return to the troubles, and the random murder and maiming of men, women and children wouldn't even register. It's the behaviour of a psychopath.

    The people to blame for killing and terrorism are the killers, terrorrists and their supporters. No one else.
    How facile.

    Tell you what, I'll walk round Bradford wearing a "Mohammad was a ****" sandwich board and a kippah. If I get punched (or worse) then it's solely the fault of those assaulting me, is it?
    Yes. Just like if a woman walks around in a short skirt and gets raped. Stop victim blaming.
    You have some very regressive views if you think those are comparable
    Taking away the sandwich board, you think wearing a kippah justifies assault?
    Of course not, just as wearing a short skirt doesn't. That doesn't change the reality that it would be taken as an aggravating factor by those most offended by the sandwich board.
    That's on them then.

    Just as wearing a short skirt is an aggravating factor for some rapists. Don't victim blame.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,301

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    No Deal Brexit 2019 - 2.68

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.156586178

    Grab it like it's hot

    I may be getting old and hazy, but I am pretty sure that only a couple of days ago we were being told LOUDLY and CLEARLY that Johnson would under no circumstances commence negotiations with the EU unless they removed the backstop immediately as a pre-condition.
    Yes. What's your point? The EU are refusing to negotiate.
    I think the point is that Boris was dictating terms over whether negotiations could go ahead. But now we're being told it's the EU. Something's not quite consistent here.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,327
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    No - I said I would consider it depending on whether / if Britain remained or rejoined and that old verities and assumptions would have to be questioned. When the facts change I try and rethink what I thought before. What do you do?

    Still, interesting that you consider rethinking in the light of events to be “total and unconditional surrender”. That is quite revealing of a certain type of Brexiteer mindset but not of mine.
    I

    You just like to think you’re cleverer and smarter than everyone else. Maybe you are, but it grates. And I’m rather tired of it and your (whilst always eloquent and well-written) shotgun rants.
    I’ll ignore the personal abuse. A shame since from my brief meeting with you I rather liked you; and it is inconsistent with stuff you’ve written to and about me in the past. But as you say everyone can change their mind.

    I think revoke can only happen after either a GE won by a party explicitly having this in their manifesto or a referendum to this effect - unlikely given the timing. The Cameron deal is no longer on offer.

    I am rethinking my position on the euro. Not sure where I will end up. But the point is rather moot in any case.
    Don’t post pro-Euro stuff then. It really boils my piss. Your choice but, if you do, don’t expect a pleasant reaction.

    Your inconsistency and unreliability on core principles that I thought you shared with me is what disappoints me.

    If you totally desert me, and then rub it in to boot, how do you expect me to react?
    At the risk of being pompous, I think it is possible to be polite even while disagreeing about politics. Or many other things.

    And to be perfectly honest, in the comments I write what I think ( though not everything that I think) and in the thread headers what I hope will stimulate discussion. I don’t take into account what individual posters think or how they will react.

    (Discussions about Italian coffee and food may be an exception to this rule.)

    Anyway, I wish you and your family well, even if we disagree about politics. Let’s hope we’re both wrong and that Brexit turns out to be less of a problem than feared and that Corbyn does not get to be PM. On this last point I think you and I are in agreement.

    Likewise.

    Thank you.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,137

    viewcode said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:


    Charming. Just pointing out that there are no such provisions in the text of the agreement as you had claimed. And I think an army observation post is a bit different from a customs border, which is the current point of contention.

    The Troubles are over.
    There were Ireland/NI border posts up until about 1992, when (I think) the single market rendered them unnecessary. You can Google them if you like.

    In order to keep civil society and British administration going during the Troubles took an enormous amount of time and effort. Operation Motorman was the longest lasting op in 20th century Army history. Every sector of society was affected, and even those as innocent as census-takers were murdered. I'm not sure you understand the magnitude of the problem nor the efforts it took to reduce it to a manageable level.
    My hometown was bombed in 1993. Two children murdered by IRA scum.

    So no, I don't accept that customs was the reason why kids were killed when we already had a customs unions. The GFA is more than customs, it is not about no border, it is about cross-border and cross-community co-operation. That is a better solution.
    You grew up in England and Australia. You have no experience of endless daily bombings, army checkpoints where you don’t know if you will get through alive, “peace walls”, punishment beatings. You have no idea, none.

    You’re not special. Nearly everyone on this board who grew up or lived in England before 1998 has some indirect experience of the troubles - even if it is just the inconvenience of bomb scares. The Deal barracks bombing took place very close to me for example. I’m sure Mancunians here remember what they were doing when the IRA rearranged the city centre in 1996. But no-one, no-one, who did not live in Northern Ireland can lecture on the effects of the Troubles. You have no idea. None. Your attempts at equivalence are insulting. The backstop will have no noticeable effect on anyone and can be abrogated at any time. The effects of bringing back any form of check in NI will have far more catastrophic effects.

    It’s not customs checks alone. Phytosanitary checks on agricultural produce will be needed. There’s your first target for the Real IRA. There are a myriad other ways checks will be needed. Avoiding that is worth a stupid temporary backstop.
  • Options

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.
    I'm fine with that. And if 'no' prevails what then?
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,301
    Scott_P said:
    Sterling strengthening in support of Corbyn - never thought I'd live to see the day.
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    No Deal Brexit 2019 - 2.68

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.156586178

    Grab it like it's hot

    I may be getting old and hazy, but I am pretty sure that only a couple of days ago we were being told LOUDLY and CLEARLY that Johnson would under no circumstances commence negotiations with the EU unless they removed the backstop immediately as a pre-condition.
    Yes. What's your point? The EU are refusing to negotiate.
    I think the point is that Boris was dictating terms over whether negotiations could go ahead. But now we're being told it's the EU. Something's not quite consistent here.
    It seems like the UK is refusing to negotiate about including the backstop and the EU is refusing to negotiate about excluding the backstop. Everyone is being stubborn idiots.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Proroguing Parliament would inflict on the country a policy with no mandate and without support in Parliament with effects that would endure for a generation. It's not "suspending democracy for a few weeks", it's an abandonment of democracy.

    Conversely, the backstop is merely a temporary holding position pending a permanent solution, which headbanging Leavers airily assure us is a trivial matter to resolve. There's nothing permanent about it at all. It was agreed to under a democratically secured mandate and negotiated by a democratically elected government.

    You seem to have no concept of what democracy is.

    You may prioritise this one policy that proroguing Parliament would bring about, but you forget that it will only come about because Parliament voted to make exiting the EU our law that it would occur.

    Any law changes that occur under the backstop won't be approved by Parliament. Give me a democratic justification for that please.
    They form part of a short-term transition and the price of smoothness, something particularly important to the smaller party, is conforming to the larger party's terms in that short-term transition in specific areas. That is normal and was mandated by a general election result in which the governing party campaigned for a smooth transition on a deal.

    Meanwhile, you are prepared to inflict your own preferred and far-reaching outcome with no mandate and against all principles of democracy.
  • Options

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.

    A No Deal Brexit is winner takes it all. It imposes the views of a minority in Northern Ireland on the Majority. That does not bother you because you are happy with a No Deal Brexit and believe the people of Northern Ireland to be sectarian bigots who deserve no better.
  • Options

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    No Deal Brexit 2019 - 2.68

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.156586178

    Grab it like it's hot

    I may be getting old and hazy, but I am pretty sure that only a couple of days ago we were being told LOUDLY and CLEARLY that Johnson would under no circumstances commence negotiations with the EU unless they removed the backstop immediately as a pre-condition.
    Yes. What's your point? The EU are refusing to negotiate.
    I think the point is that Boris was dictating terms over whether negotiations could go ahead. But now we're being told it's the EU. Something's not quite consistent here.
    Well it's no wonder you're picking the EU side. Some of us true brits like our red-lines and negotiating stance. It's clear to us that it is the EU that is refusing to negotiate - which is pretty much what Gove said and it scrolling across the ticker for all to note and pick their side.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.
    I'm fine with that. And if 'no' prevails what then?
    Ireland is a pain in the bum. Always has been.
  • Options
    DougSeal said:

    My hometown was bombed in 1993. Two children murdered by IRA scum.

    So no, I don't accept that customs was the reason why kids were killed when we already had a customs unions. The GFA is more than customs, it is not about no border, it is about cross-border and cross-community co-operation. That is a better solution.

    You grew up in England and Australia. You have no experience of endless daily bombings, army checkpoints where you don’t know if you will get through alive, “peace walls”, punishment beatings. You have no idea, none.

    You’re not special. Nearly everyone on this board who grew up or lived in England before 1998 has some indirect experience of the troubles - even if it is just the inconvenience of bomb scares. The Deal barracks bombing took place very close to me for example. I’m sure Mancunians here remember what they were doing when the IRA rearranged the city centre in 1996. But no-one, no-one, who did not live in Northern Ireland can lecture on the effects of the Troubles. You have no idea. None. Your attempts at equivalence are insulting. The backstop will have no noticeable effect on anyone and can be abrogated at any time. The effects of bringing back any form of check in NI will have far more catastrophic effects.

    It’s not customs checks alone. Phytosanitary checks on agricultural produce will be needed. There’s your first target for the Real IRA. There are a myriad other ways checks will be needed. Avoiding that is worth a stupid temporary backstop.
    I'm not sure what my spending time in Australia has to do with this whatsoever, or what it has to do with Bridge Street being bombed while we were in the EU which supposedly ensured there were no bombings.

    The backstop is opposed by the overwhelming majority of Unionists in NI. Including Trimble who negotiated the GFA. Since the GFA was negotiated by Trimble and designed to deal with issues on a cross-community basis of co-operation I am happy to live with the spirt of that. I am not fine with the backstop being compelled on them.

    The fact one of the Nobel Prize winning signatories to the GFA opposes the backstop should get some people to stop and think. It doesn't. Come back with a solution backed by both communities and then we can talk, this one is not acceptable.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,930
    Very sombre day in the Tour of Poland following the death of Bjorg Lambrecht yesterday. The race was neutralised and each team took it in turns to lead the procession. The final few kilos had Lambrecht's team Lotto Soudal leading. The whole peloton stopped for a minute's silence just before the finishing line. A very well organised ceremony.
  • Options

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.

    A No Deal Brexit is winner takes it all. It imposes the views of a minority in Northern Ireland on the Majority. That does not bother you because you are happy with a No Deal Brexit and believe the people of Northern Ireland to be sectarian bigots who deserve no better.
    That's not true. I've said I want a compromise and am willing to compromise. If there is a solution that both communities can accept then great - until then No Deal is the default. Compromise should be the solution.

    You think Unionists are sectarian bigots who deserve no better it seems.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    IanB2 said:

    I've made this point before but 53 no-deal pounds is less than 47 extend-or-revoke pounds, so this market is pointing at the exit happening by Oct 31st.

    Does this interpretation hold? Couldn't you simply hedge the FX impact of deal/no deal, rendering the payout under the two outcomes independent of the value of GBP? In other words, if you are betting USD then whether you choose to make the bet just on the Brexit outcome or a combined bet on Brexit plus the value of GBPUSD is up to you, and so the Brexit portion of the bet should be a clean measure of subjective probabilities.
    It only makes sense for someone betting from abroad and place their stake in £. Which must be a tiny minority of the Uk betting market.
    It makes sense for anyone concerned about the value of GBP under the two scenarios. Even if you are UK based. The point I was trying to make was that it was mistaken to view the odds as skewed by the exchange rate implications of Brexit, because those implications could be hedged against when placing the bet. That is my contention anyway, I might be wrong.

    Apparently Gisela Stuart was in the Cabinet Office today. Is Cummings planning to get the Vote Leave gang together again for one last job?

    "Sorry guvnah. I've gorn straigt. I don't do referendums no more."
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,816
    I find the stance that accepting a handful of standards and trade-specific policies with minimal input is subjugation and makes us supplicants, destroying democracy... quite perplexing. That even one or two product standards imposed on us is the same as the loss of all independent law-making power, let alone multiple product standards and associated bits and pieces.

    Especially as we'd always retain the capability to unilaterally break it, anyway. The EU would not send soldiers and warplanes to enforce it.

    I mean, if you accept that as axiomatic, Philip Thomson's stance is correct and noble - it's just the basic starting point seems rather bizarre to me.
  • Options

    DougSeal said:

    My hometown was bombed in 1993. Two children murdered by IRA scum.

    So no, I don't accept that customs was the reason why kids were killed when we already had a customs unions. The GFA is more than customs, it is not about no border, it is about cross-border and cross-community co-operation. That is a better solution.

    You grew up in England and Australia. You have no experience of endless daily bombings, army checkpoints where you don’t know if you will get through alive, “peace walls”, punishment beatings. You have no idea, none.

    You’re not special. Nearly everyone on this board who grew up or lived in England before 1998 has some indirect experience of the troubles - even if it is just the inconvenience of bomb scares. The Deal barracks bombing took place very close to me for example. I’m sure Mancunians here remember what they were doing when the IRA rearranged the city centre in 1996. But no-one, no-one, who did not live in Northern Ireland can lecture on the effects of the Troubles. You have no idea. None. Your attempts at equivalence are insulting. The backstop will have no noticeable effect on anyone and can be abrogated at any time. The effects of bringing back any form of check in NI will have far more catastrophic effects.

    It’s not customs checks alone. Phytosanitary checks on agricultural produce will be needed. There’s your first target for the Real IRA. There are a myriad other ways checks will be needed. Avoiding that is worth a stupid temporary backstop.
    I'm not sure what my spending time in Australia has to do with this whatsoever, or what it has to do with Bridge Street being bombed while we were in the EU which supposedly ensured there were no bombings.

    The backstop is opposed by the overwhelming majority of Unionists in NI. Including Trimble who negotiated the GFA. Since the GFA was negotiated by Trimble and designed to deal with issues on a cross-community basis of co-operation I am happy to live with the spirt of that. I am not fine with the backstop being compelled on them.

    The fact one of the Nobel Prize winning signatories to the GFA opposes the backstop should get some people to stop and think. It doesn't. Come back with a solution backed by both communities and then we can talk, this one is not acceptable.

    The other joint Nobel Prize winner would disagree were he alive, as would all those who voted for the Alliance Party in the May Euro elections. The Alliance Party, which is explicitly non-sectarian, got more votes than any of the others, of course.

  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Afternoon all :)

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    To belabour the point, nothing really has changed since mid January except we have a Prime Minister whose entire modus operandi and rationale for getting the job was, quite correctly, to ensure this didn't go on and on.

    Johnson will have been party to the guidance as to what could happen in the event of an exit without a WA and I suspect that's where the frantic effort is going so both macro and micro measures will be taken to minimise disruption and the economic impacts.

    I suspect the anti-EU rhetoric will be wound up as conference season approaches.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,137

    DougSeal said:

    My hometown was bombed in 1993. Two children murdered by IRA scum.

    So no, I don't accept that customs was the reason why kids were killed when we already had a customs unions. The GFA is more than customs, it is not about no border, it is about cross-border and cross-community co-operation. That is a better solution.

    You grew up in England and Australia. You have no experience of endless daily bombings, army checkpoints where you don’t know if you will get through alive, “peace walls”, punishment beatings. You have no idea, none.

    You’re not special. Nearly everyone on this board who grew up or lived in England before 1998 has some indirect experience of the troubles - even if it is just the inconvenience of bomb scares. The Deal barracks bombing took place very close to me for example. I’m sure Mancunians here remember what they were doing when the IRA rearranged the city centre in 1996. But no-one, no-one, who did not live in Northern Ireland can lecture on the effects of the Troubles. You have no idea. None. Your attempts at equivalence are insulting. The backstop will have no noticeable effect on anyone and can be abrogated at any time. The effects of bringing back any form of check in NI will have far more catastrophic effects.

    It’s not customs checks alone. Phytosanitary checks on agricultural produce will be needed. There’s your first target for the Real IRA. There are a myriad other ways checks will be needed. Avoiding that is worth a stupid temporary backstop.
    I'm not sure what my spending time in Australia has to do with this whatsoever, or what it has to do with Bridge Street being bombed while we were in the EU which supposedly ensured there were no bombings.

    The backstop is opposed by the overwhelming majority of Unionists in NI. Including Trimble who negotiated the GFA. Since the GFA was negotiated by Trimble and designed to deal with issues on a cross-community basis of co-operation I am happy to live with the spirt of that. I am not fine with the backstop being compelled on them.

    The fact one of the Nobel Prize winning signatories to the GFA opposes the backstop should get some people to stop and think. It doesn't. Come back with a solution backed by both communities and then we can talk, this one is not acceptable.
    Your spending time in Australia has nothing to do with it. The fact you are not from Northern Ireland and have no sensitivity (or indeed empathy) whatsoever to the community there has everything to do with it. Your callous attitude is breathtaking.
  • Options

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.

    A No Deal Brexit is winner takes it all. It imposes the views of a minority in Northern Ireland on the Majority. That does not bother you because you are happy with a No Deal Brexit and believe the people of Northern Ireland to be sectarian bigots who deserve no better.
    That's not true. I've said I want a compromise and am willing to compromise. If there is a solution that both communities can accept then great - until then No Deal is the default. Compromise should be the solution.

    You think Unionists are sectarian bigots who deserve no better it seems.

    Without support in the Unionist community there could be no backstop. But there is support. Hence the rise in the support for the Alliance party.

  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Anorak said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Anorak said:


    Philip would happily allow the entire country to dissolve into a post-apocalyptic wasteland if it was self-governing and free of the EU. Quite literally, as the above quote shows. A return to the troubles, and the random murder and maiming of men, women and children wouldn't even register. It's the behaviour of a psychopath.

    The people to blame for killing and terrorism are the killers, terrorrists and their supporters. No one else.
    How facile.

    Tell you what, I'll walk round Bradford wearing a "Mohammad was a ****" sandwich board and a kippah. If I get punched (or worse) then it's solely the fault of those assaulting me, is it?
    Yes. Just like if a woman walks around in a short skirt and gets raped. Stop victim blaming.
    You have some very regressive views if you think those are comparable
    Taking away the sandwich board, you think wearing a kippah justifies assault?
    Of course not, just as wearing a short skirt doesn't. That doesn't change the reality that it would be taken as an aggravating factor by those most offended by the sandwich board.
    That's on them then.

    Just as wearing a short skirt is an aggravating factor for some rapists. Don't victim blame.
    Exactly.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    To belabour the point, nothing really has changed since mid January except we have a Prime Minister whose entire modus operandi and rationale for getting the job was, quite correctly, to ensure this didn't go on and on.

    Johnson will have been party to the guidance as to what could happen in the event of an exit without a WA and I suspect that's where the frantic effort is going so both macro and micro measures will be taken to minimise disruption and the economic impacts.

    So is it safe to assume someone has now told him there won't be a transition period if we leave without a deal?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    stodge said:

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    Indeed, but the only people gullible enough to buy it are already voting for BoZo.
  • Options
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    My hometown was bombed in 1993. Two children murdered by IRA scum.

    So no, I don't accept that customs was the reason why kids were killed when we already had a customs unions. The GFA is more than customs, it is not about no border, it is about cross-border and cross-community co-operation. That is a better solution.

    You grew up in England and Australia. You have no experience of endless daily bombings, army checkpoints where you don’t know if you will get through alive, “peace walls”, punishment beatings. You have no idea, none.

    You’re not special. Nearly everyone on this board who grew up or lived in England before 1998 has some indirect experience of the troubles - even if it is just the inconvenience of bomb scares. The Deal barracks bombing took place very close to me for example. I’m sure Mancunians here remember what they were doing when the IRA rearranged the city centre in 1996. But no-one, no-one, who did not live in Northern Ireland can lecture on the effects of the Troubles. You have no idea. None. Your attempts at equivalence are insulting. The backstop will have no noticeable effect on anyone and can be abrogated at any time. The effects of bringing back any form of check in NI will have far more catastrophic effects.

    It’s not customs checks alone. Phytosanitary checks on agricultural produce will be needed. There’s your first target for the Real IRA. There are a myriad other ways checks will be needed. Avoiding that is worth a stupid temporary backstop.
    I'm not sure what my spending time in Australia has to do with this whatsoever, or what it has to do with Bridge Street being bombed while we were in the EU which supposedly ensured there were no bombings.

    The backstop is opposed by the overwhelming majority of Unionists in NI. Including Trimble who negotiated the GFA. Since the GFA was negotiated by Trimble and designed to deal with issues on a cross-community basis of co-operation I am happy to live with the spirt of that. I am not fine with the backstop being compelled on them.

    The fact one of the Nobel Prize winning signatories to the GFA opposes the backstop should get some people to stop and think. It doesn't. Come back with a solution backed by both communities and then we can talk, this one is not acceptable.
    Your spending time in Australia has nothing to do with it. The fact you are not from Northern Ireland and have no sensitivity (or indeed empathy) whatsoever to the community there has everything to do with it. Your callous attitude is breathtaking.
    I'm callous for agreeing with Lord Trimble?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120

    Scott_P said:
    Sterling strengthening in support of Corbyn - never thought I'd live to see the day.
    Everything's relative.
  • Options

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.

    A No Deal Brexit is winner takes it all. It imposes the views of a minority in Northern Ireland on the Majority. That does not bother you because you are happy with a No Deal Brexit and believe the people of Northern Ireland to be sectarian bigots who deserve no better.
    That's not true. I've said I want a compromise and am willing to compromise. If there is a solution that both communities can accept then great - until then No Deal is the default. Compromise should be the solution.

    You think Unionists are sectarian bigots who deserve no better it seems.

    Without support in the Unionist community there could be no backstop. But there is support. Hence the rise in the support for the Alliance party.

    Its not supported by the Unionist community and you know it. A higher proportion of Scots back Brexit than Unionists back the backstop.
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.
    Staying in the UK is winner takes all and is a bigger decision than the backstop. Why not just replicate the constitutional question situation: either side gets to call for a poll on it whenever it looks like a majority exists to change things?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,878
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    Well quite. That “once in a generation” thing was an off the cuff remark. Doesn’t stop it being a favourite Unionist meme.

    Off the cuff? It was in the fucking whitepaper.
    Scott - Has your own view on Scottish independence changed at all due to Brexit? Would you consider supporting it in the event of No Deal, for example?
    Why would he care living outside Scotland
    The proprietor if Wings would like a word with you, amongst others.....
    He has already said he will return on independence thoughb
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,975
    Scott_P said:

    stodge said:

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    Indeed, but the only people gullible enough to buy it are already voting for BoZo.
    Remainers, like me, should be careful;'the vast majority of the Press will happily swallow this.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    To belabour the point, nothing really has changed since mid January except we have a Prime Minister whose entire modus operandi and rationale for getting the job was, quite correctly, to ensure this didn't go on and on.

    Johnson will have been party to the guidance as to what could happen in the event of an exit without a WA and I suspect that's where the frantic effort is going so both macro and micro measures will be taken to minimise disruption and the economic impacts.

    I suspect the anti-EU rhetoric will be wound up as conference season approaches.

    If the government is not careful, the anti-EU rhetoric is going to come across as rhetoric which is anti all those in Britain who are either in the 48% or those in the 52% who would like to have a friendly and workable relationship with the EU in the future.

    It risks becoming Boris’s version of May’s “citizens of nowhere” speech.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Scott_P said:

    stodge said:

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    Indeed, but the only people gullible enough to buy it are already voting for BoZo.
    You think the EU is blameless?
  • Options
    Gabs2 said:

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.
    Staying in the UK is winner takes all and is a bigger decision than the backstop. Why not just replicate the constitutional question situation: either side gets to call for a poll on it whenever it looks like a majority exists to change things?
    Because staying in the UK is not winner takes all, that was the point of the GFA. People can be in NI, call themselves Irish, have Irish citizenship etc, etc

    What was agreed with the GFA is that whether NI is UK or Eire is a matter to be determined democratically but in the meantime we will have cross-border co-operation and compromise.

    So lets have a solution based on cross-border co-operation and compromise. If there is a smuggling problem we can fight the same way we fight tobacco or alcohol smuggling. Not have one community compel the other.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,878
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    BTW, a GONU doesn't require unity, it requires 50%+1

    GOMOO ?
    That would be a cow of a job to manage,
    But better than any udder solution.
    Stop milking my puns!
    Next he will be creaming them
    I was ignoring him, for posting nothing butter load of bull.
    We'll skim over that.
    what that the best you curd come up with
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    Cyclefree said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    To belabour the point, nothing really has changed since mid January except we have a Prime Minister whose entire modus operandi and rationale for getting the job was, quite correctly, to ensure this didn't go on and on.

    Johnson will have been party to the guidance as to what could happen in the event of an exit without a WA and I suspect that's where the frantic effort is going so both macro and micro measures will be taken to minimise disruption and the economic impacts.

    I suspect the anti-EU rhetoric will be wound up as conference season approaches.

    If the government is not careful, the anti-EU rhetoric is going to come across as rhetoric which is anti all those in Britain who are either in the 48% or those in the 52% who would like to have a friendly and workable relationship with the EU in the future.

    It risks becoming Boris’s version of May’s “citizens of nowhere” speech.
    I'm afraid that if we do leave with No Deal and it goes disastrously, and if Johnson's response is to blame foreigners, the xenophobic violence we've seen so far could be like a vicarage tea party.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Gabs2 said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    No Deal Brexit 2019 - 2.68

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.156586178

    Grab it like it's hot

    I may be getting old and hazy, but I am pretty sure that only a couple of days ago we were being told LOUDLY and CLEARLY that Johnson would under no circumstances commence negotiations with the EU unless they removed the backstop immediately as a pre-condition.
    Yes. What's your point? The EU are refusing to negotiate.
    I think the point is that Boris was dictating terms over whether negotiations could go ahead. But now we're being told it's the EU. Something's not quite consistent here.
    It seems like the UK is refusing to negotiate about including the backstop and the EU is refusing to negotiate about excluding the backstop. Everyone is being stubborn idiots.
    The anti-democratic, vassalage backstop that is so appallingly humiliating for the UK that Johnson and many of his colleagues voted in favour of it at MV3.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    Well quite. That “once in a generation” thing was an off the cuff remark. Doesn’t stop it being a favourite Unionist meme.

    Off the cuff? It was in the fucking whitepaper.
    Scott - Has your own view on Scottish independence changed at all due to Brexit? Would you consider supporting it in the event of No Deal, for example?
    Why would he care living outside Scotland
    The proprietor if Wings would like a word with you, amongst others.....
    He has already said he will return on independence thoughb
    It's all well and good having people returning - what are you gonna do about the mass exodus - basket case iScot will see a brain drain like nothing seen on earth before.
  • Options

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.

    A referendum on the backstop itself would suffice. It could not pass if the Protestant majority opposed it. But it would pass - and by a large margin - because most voters in Northern Ireland support it.

    That's nonsense.

    If 98% of one community support something while 80% of the other oppose it then it can pass, but it will be by a filthy sectarian divide. Which is why the GFA did not bring about Stormont based on winner takes all.

    A No Deal Brexit is winner takes it allto be sectarian bigots who deserve no better.
    That's not true. I've said I want a compromise and am willing to compromise. If there is a solution that both communities can accept then great - until then No Deal is the default. Compromise should be the solution.

    You think Unionists are sectarian bigots who deserve no better it seems.

    Without support in the Unionist community there could be no backstop. But there is support. Hence the rise in the support for the Alliance party.

    Its not supported by the Unionist community and you know it. A higher proportion of Scots back Brexit than Unionists back the backstop.

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

  • Options

    Gabs2 said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    No Deal Brexit 2019 - 2.68

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.156586178

    Grab it like it's hot

    I may be getting old and hazy, but I am pretty sure that only a couple of days ago we were being told LOUDLY and CLEARLY that Johnson would under no circumstances commence negotiations with the EU unless they removed the backstop immediately as a pre-condition.
    Yes. What's your point? The EU are refusing to negotiate.
    I think the point is that Boris was dictating terms over whether negotiations could go ahead. But now we're being told it's the EU. Something's not quite consistent here.
    It seems like the UK is refusing to negotiate about including the backstop and the EU is refusing to negotiate about excluding the backstop. Everyone is being stubborn idiots.
    The anti-democratic, vassalage backstop that is so appallingly humiliating for the UK that Johnson and many of his colleagues voted in favour of it at MV3.
    I for one opposed it at MV3. I have been consistent.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,301
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
  • Options

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
  • Options

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.
    There's nothing stopping the EU from changing their stance and to start negotiating.

    They're going to give us the punishment beating Bozo himself warned of.

    We'll survive.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056

    Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.

    Apparently the EU secretariat doesn't know how to take dictation.

    https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1158720819364806659
  • Options

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.
    Give it time. We need them to look into the whites of our eyes and know that we are serious. The mounting panic now from those who start to believe this could seriously happen shows the plan is working.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    The EU knew May had to get the deal approved by Parliament before it was ratified, so it was never a done deal. They also know that Parliament rejected it three times. Gove is definitely not a dimwit and, in this case, I don't believe he's being dishonest.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    The deal was rejected again since then. The government has been replaced since then.

    The horse is dead. Do you want to keep flogging a dead horse or move on?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    Perhaps Gove genuinely believed that the EU would be bowled over by Boris's charisma and sense of fun, and was only saddened in the wake of that not happening.
    Ah yes. Maybe that's it.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,156

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.
    I'm fine with that. And if 'no' prevails what then?
    We would be back to square one.

    From anecdotal evidence on my regular visits to NI I suspect a significant number of moderate 'Unionists' would take a chance on a united Ireland to avoid the chaos of a disastrous Brexit.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    I'm surprised. I assumed the EU would act in good faith. Yes, I guess I am a bit of a fool.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,975
    edited August 2019
    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    To belabour the point, nothing really has changed since mid January except we have a Prime Minister whose entire modus operandi and rationale for getting the job was, quite correctly, to ensure this didn't go on and on.

    Johnson will have been party to the guidance as to what could happen in the event of an exit without a WA and I suspect that's where the frantic effort is going so both macro and micro measures will be taken to minimise disruption and the economic impacts.

    I suspect the anti-EU rhetoric will be wound up as conference season approaches.

    If the government is not careful, the anti-EU rhetoric is going to come across as rhetoric which is anti all those in Britain who are either in the 48% or those in the 52% who would like to have a friendly and workable relationship with the EU in the future.

    It risks becoming Boris’s version of May’s “citizens of nowhere” speech.
    I'm afraid that if we do leave with No Deal and it goes disastrously, and if Johnson's response is to blame foreigners, the xenophobic violence we've seen so far could be like a vicarage tea party.
    I fear you are right. And I suspect that in those circumstances, Johnson will do as you suspect, or at least many of his supporters will. And he won't discourage them. There will be crocodile tears, but that's about all.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,970

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    I'm surprised. I assumed the EU would act in good faith. Yes, I guess I am a bit of a fool.
    They did in April. We are now trying to get them to change what they stated in April yet won't compromise on anything to allow negotiations to begin..
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,930
    edited August 2019

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.


  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203
    Chris said:

    Cyclefree said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    To belabour the point, nothing really has changed since mid January except we have a Prime Minister whose entire modus operandi and rationale for getting the job was, quite correctly, to ensure this didn't go on and on.

    Johnson will have been party to the guidance as to what could happen in the event of an exit without a WA and I suspect that's where the frantic effort is going so both macro and micro measures will be taken to minimise disruption and the economic impacts.

    I suspect the anti-EU rhetoric will be wound up as conference season approaches.

    If the government is not careful, the anti-EU rhetoric is going to come across as rhetoric which is anti all those in Britain who are either in the 48% or those in the 52% who would like to have a friendly and workable relationship with the EU in the future.

    It risks becoming Boris’s version of May’s “citizens of nowhere” speech.
    I'm afraid that if we do leave with No Deal and it goes disastrously, and if Johnson's response is to blame foreigners, the xenophobic violence we've seen so far could be like a vicarage tea party.
    I really hope not. I really do.

    It really is time for all politicians to tone down the rhetoric and try and come up with solutions. We should not be fighting, even rhetorically, with countries so close to us, in every sense.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    The deal was rejected again since then. The government has been replaced since then.

    The horse is dead. Do you want to keep flogging a dead horse or move on?
    That people are incapable of understanding a very simple point expressed in plain English might be frustrating.

    But on the other hand, in a sense, it's useful to be constantly reminded how stupid extreme Brexiteers really are.
  • Options

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    The EU knew May had to get the deal approved by Parliament before it was ratified, so it was never a done deal. They also know that Parliament rejected it three times. Gove is definitely not a dimwit and, in this case, I don't believe he's being dishonest.

    The great news is that No Deal will be no problem. Michael’s changed his mind about that one.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,975

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.
    I'm fine with that. And if 'no' prevails what then?
    We would be back to square one.

    From anecdotal evidence on my regular visits to NI I suspect a significant number of moderate 'Unionists' would take a chance on a united Ireland to avoid the chaos of a disastrous Brexit.
    Isn't there polling to that effect? And All-Ireland sports teams are now the norm, except in soccer. Even, and I stand to be corrected, golf.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.

    Good. We are getting somewhere.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks Northern Ireland citizens are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
  • Options
    eek said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    I'm surprised. I assumed the EU would act in good faith. Yes, I guess I am a bit of a fool.
    They did in April. We are now trying to get them to change what they stated in April yet won't compromise on anything to allow negotiations to begin..
    April's negotiation was not in good faith. The backstop is not in good faith.
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,816

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    Which specific regulations and standards that would be affected by the backstop do you find equivalent to removing General Election voting rights from specific demographics?
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited August 2019
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    I'm sure Gove isn't surprised but this is a poker game and you've obviously never played.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,203

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.

    Good. We are getting somewhere.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks Northern Ireland citizens are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    NI citizens are permitted to vote - in Westminster and in Stormont (when it is sitting) - elections.

    No-one is suggesting that those votes be taken away.
  • Options

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.

    Good. We are getting somewhere.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks Northern Ireland citizens are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    Which specific regulations and standards that would be affected by the backstop do you find equivalent to removing General Election voting rights from specific demographics?
    Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by MEPs at the European Parliament. Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by countries in the European Council.

    It doesn't matter how big or how small an election is. Telling a community they must abide by the outcome of elections but can't vote in them, while elections continue for other communities is utterly, utterly unacceptable.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,156

    Scott_P said:

    stodge said:

    The Gove line this afternoon is clearly about the Johnson Government preparing a lorry-load of blame to be dumped all over the EU especially if aspects of leaving without an agreed WA prove sub-optimal to use the vernacular.

    Indeed, but the only people gullible enough to buy it are already voting for BoZo.
    You think the EU is blameless?
    Another delusion proposed by hardcore Brexiteers is that ALL Remainers love the EU, we all don't! The alternative as proposed by Mssrs. Johnson and Farage is considerably worse, to the point of insanity in fact.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,056

    I'm sure Gove isn't surprised but this is a poker game and you've obviously never played.

    With that in mind, how do you read the headlines about the EU coming away from the meeting with David Frost saying that No Deal is Boris Johnson's "central scenario", something he has called a "one in a million chance"?
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited August 2019

    Those, who for no good reason, create the conditions in which they thrive also deserve some blame. There is a reason why the majority of the people of Northern Ireland support the backstop. Philip is so committed to freedom he is happy to see them ignored and suffer the consequences.

    This is a lie and you know it. On a massive sectarian divide one community in NI hates the backstop and the other community loves it.

    The whole "spirit of the GFA" was that we would in the future seek compromise between the communities, not have one impose its will on the other.

    You are prepared to f##k over one NI community because the other community wants to do so. I am not.
    You claim to be an advocate of democracy and have disdain for the backstop, the obvious solution for your complex problem would be a binary vote in NI, united Ireland 'yes'or 'no'. When 'yes' prevails the backstop issue goes away.
    I'm fine with that. And if 'no' prevails what then?
    We would be back to square one.

    From anecdotal evidence on my regular visits to NI I suspect a significant number of moderate 'Unionists' would take a chance on a united Ireland to avoid the chaos of a disastrous Brexit.
    As an Englishman, I'd vote for that
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,970

    eek said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Sky Ticker - Gove says he is "deeply saddened that the EU now seems to be refusing to negotiate with the UK"

    Is Gove developing dementia or something?

    It's less than four months since the government he was a member of agreed as a condition of the extension that there would be no further negotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Was he never told? Has he forgotten? Is he just lying?
    Spin it all you want

    No Deal Brexit Nailed On
    I'm not trying to spin anything. I just find it depressing when someone who is sometimes presented as one of the more sensible Tory politicians acts as if he were either extremely stupid or brazenly dishonest.

    For what it's worth, I think we're obviously heading for No Deal unless the Commons can stop the insanity, which I am not hopeful about.
    You are spinning - your implying that it's our fault the EU won't negotiate and you're calling Gove a dimwit because of the EU's intransigence.
    I implied nothing about blame. My point is that Gove is either a "dimwit" or dishonest when he feigns surprise/sadness that the EU line is still the same as the one the EU and the UK agreed in April.
    What exactly is stopping them from changing their stance?
    That's quite irrelevant to the point I'm making, which is that no one but a fool or a liar can claim to be surprised by the fact that they are sticking to the conditions everyone agreed to in April.
    I'm surprised. I assumed the EU would act in good faith. Yes, I guess I am a bit of a fool.
    They did in April. We are now trying to get them to change what they stated in April yet won't compromise on anything to allow negotiations to begin..
    April's negotiation was not in good faith. The backstop is not in good faith.
    The backstop is in good faith - if you can't see what it gives us for free which other countries don't have you need to reread the agreement.

  • Options
    Cyclefree said:

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.

    Good. We are getting somewhere.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks Northern Ireland citizens are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    NI citizens are permitted to vote - in Westminster and in Stormont (when it is sitting) - elections.

    No-one is suggesting that those votes be taken away.
    Good they will be subject to Westminster and Stormont laws, so of course they should vote in Westminster and Stormont elections. Would be unreasonable to be otherwise.

    Will they be subject to laws passed by the European Parliament?

    Will they be able to vote in European Parliament elections?
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,105

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    "taking away fundamental rights by democracy" is literally what happened in the Brexit vote. It's why Remainers struggle to "get over it" as we are so frequently told to do.
  • Options

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    Which specific regulations and standards that would be affected by the backstop do you find equivalent to removing General Election voting rights from specific demographics?
    Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by MEPs at the European Parliament. Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by countries in the European Council.

    It doesn't matter how big or how small an election is. Telling a community they must abide by the outcome of elections but can't vote in them, while elections continue for other communities is utterly, utterly unacceptable.

    As stated previously, your belief that the EU is a fully-functioning democracy is a novel one.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,604
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    BTW, a GONU doesn't require unity, it requires 50%+1

    GOMOO ?
    That would be a cow of a job to manage,
    But better than any udder solution.
    Stop milking my puns!
    Next he will be creaming them
    I was ignoring him, for posting nothing butter load of bull.
    We'll skim over that.
    what that the best you curd come up with
    These puns are going whey over my head.
  • Options

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.

    Good. We are getting somewhere.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks Northern Ireland citizens are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?

    Yes.

    So they shouldn't be subject to the laws the European Parliament passes without taking part in European Parliamentary Elections right?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2019

    Either you believe in democracy or you don’t. You cannot get majority support for the backstop in Northern Ireland without sizeable support for it in the Unionist community, especially as a minority within the Nationalist community is also opposed to the backstop.

    I don't believe in taking away fundamental human rights by democracy no.

    If Parliament was to pass a law tomorrow saying that blacks are no longer permitted to vote, I would oppose that. Would you?
    Which specific regulations and standards that would be affected by the backstop do you find equivalent to removing General Election voting rights from specific demographics?
    Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by MEPs at the European Parliament. Any and all that are meant to be democratically decided by countries in the European Council.

    It doesn't matter how big or how small an election is. Telling a community they must abide by the outcome of elections but can't vote in them, while elections continue for other communities is utterly, utterly unacceptable.

    As stated previously, your belief that the EU is a fully-functioning democracy is a novel one.
    I wouldn't necessarily go as far as to say fully-functioning, but what else is the purpose of the European Parliament elections?
This discussion has been closed.