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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another set of opening PM Johnson leader ratings has him in de

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 7 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another set of opening PM Johnson leader ratings has him in deep negative territory

Generally when PMs are replaced during a parliament the new person gets a boost in their leader ratings which I have long regarded as a better indicator of the political weather than voting intention polls.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    (from Radio Times)

    BBC1 10.35pm
    Can You Beat the Bookies?

    Armed with several thousand pounds and a dangerously small amount of knowledge, comedian Lloyd Griffith embarks on a challenge to double his money at the bookies while laying bare the truth about the gambling industry. En route he meets professional gamblers, academics who expose the tricks of the trade and people dealing with the consequences of their addiction.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,253

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Boris has a deal?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,790

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite what is Farage up to?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    On the subject of economics, and as I have a cup of tea to drink before doing some exercise, pretty much every major economy is flirting with recession right now.

    Markit PMIs, or Purchasing Manager Indices, are some of the best forward looking indicators. They contact tens of thousands of firms every month with a survey and ask about stocks, backlogs, orders, exports, employment, etc. There is no reward for filling this in other than getting some nice reports on the economy (although it is a fairly trivial process), but in this way Markit gets an excellent idea of how manufacturing industries are trending around the world. (Markit has recently started doing services, retail, and construction as well, but the coverage these surveys get is still really low, so they are of varying usefulness.)

    A PMI number of 50 indicates that half of firms are seeing improving conditions, and half are seeing deteriorating. They have been excellent barometers of growth, albeit sometimes overly sensitive.

    Right now, the PMIs are below 50 and indicate recessions are incoming in the following countries:

    Ireland
    UK
    South Korea
    Japan
    Taiwan
    Russia
    Poland
    Spain
    Italy
    Germany

    And the following countries have PMIs of almost exactly 50 (which is not a good sign)...

    US
    China
    France
    Brazil
    Canada

    Still growing are...
    India
    The Netherlands
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    What has Farage got against Sandi Toksvig?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338

    (from Radio Times)

    BBC1 10.35pm
    Can You Beat the Bookies?

    Armed with several thousand pounds and a dangerously small amount of knowledge, comedian Lloyd Griffith embarks on a challenge to double his money at the bookies while laying bare the truth about the gambling industry. En route he meets professional gamblers, academics who expose the tricks of the trade and people dealing with the consequences of their addiction.

    Does he meet Tony Bloom?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,966

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    Nige is clearly coming out strongly against no deal. Bit of a turn-up.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,689
    If one of Trump's goals was to reduce the oil price, he certainly seems to be succeeding at the moment. Take a look at these figures.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    rcs1000 said:

    (from Radio Times)

    BBC1 10.35pm
    Can You Beat the Bookies?

    Armed with several thousand pounds and a dangerously small amount of knowledge, comedian Lloyd Griffith embarks on a challenge to double his money at the bookies while laying bare the truth about the gambling industry. En route he meets professional gamblers, academics who expose the tricks of the trade and people dealing with the consequences of their addiction.

    Does he meet Tony Bloom?
    That's all the info I've got I'm afraid. Although I now know that Tony Bloom is a poker player; so thanks for that.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    I wonder if cheeky Nigel is planning to blame the suffering and degradation caused by No Deal on Boris's deal, even though it won't actually exist. Nigel might just have the chutzpah to try it, and many of his his admirers would probably believe him.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite bizarre.

    In the 21st century, political oratory = a complete pack of lies?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    So could Boris Johnson be the first PM to score a straight -100, in a few months' time?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,324
    FPT

    Pulpstar said:
    Does the German chart mean the ECB will probably hold rates near zero for the forseeable future ?

    I said:
    Deposit rates with the ECB have been negative for some time. Lending rates are currently at record lows of 1.95% and heading lower. Despite the fact that you are having to pay Germany to look after your money their Target balances within the EZ are moving inexorably to 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The only thing that can save the EZ from yet another recession is a major increase in public spending combined with tax cuts in Germany to boost demand. And I don't see that happening whilst Merkel is there.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    .0025 euro off five year low
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    On topic - this is no surprise.

    Personality is one thing but voters want action and results.

    Hence why Mrs May plunged to the ground.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    FPT since Peter asked a question.

    But the £ dropped independently of any cyclical or other normal economic forces, and our credit rating worsened as a direct consequence of you know what.

    Should these two reverse immediately or soon after we actually Brexit, I am willing to concede that it may be due the benefits of said departure from the EU. You and the entire band of PB brothers will read my unashamed and sincere mea culpa. In fact I will be delighted to offer it, because what happens to the country and the people I love matters more to me than my silly pride, or being right on a point of principle.

    But it ain't gonna happen, is it?

    And you know why.

    It isn't going to happen because sterling isn't a measure of strength and is a natural shock absorber. It falling is it doing its job as we adjust to a transition.

    Why the obsession on sterling rather than wages, inflation or employment which is what actually effects people?
    It is falling, because there is less demand for it. Now why is there less demand for it? Put your hand up when you think you have an answer.

    Then you can move onto the credit rating question with the rest of the class.
    *Raises hand*

    There is less demand because markets like guaranteed safe havens more than uncertainty. Even if things are going well. Which is why it is a meaningless metric.

    Just as credit rating is a meaningless metric too. It is a subjective measurement.

    What is real rather than subjective is actual economic indicators. Inflation, wages, employment for people.

    A better indication than credit rating is looking at gilt yields. UK 10 year gilt yield is currently a record low below 0.5% which shows remarkable confidence that the gilts are still a safe haven not a concern. It isn't as extreme as the negative yield of German gilts but it is still safe.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,324
    Chris said:

    So could Boris Johnson be the first PM to score a straight -100, in a few months' time?

    Not as long as Corbyn is the alternative.
  • TGOHF said:

    On topic - this is no surprise.

    Personality is one thing but voters want action and results.

    Hence why Mrs May plunged to the ground.

    But Mrs May didn't have a personality. And, in a sense, she did take action and get results. She couldn't ultimately sell that result, but in many ways she was the antithesis of Johnson - a thoroughly boring person who wasn't afraid of hard work.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    I wonder if cheeky Nigel is planning to blame the suffering and degradation caused by No Deal on Boris's deal, even though it won't actually exist. Nigel might just have the chutzpah to try it, and many of his his admirers would probably believe him.
    Yes of course he is. He can't lose whatever happens. If the October 31st deadline is missed, either because of or despite Boris, he'll be gleefully pointing to the brain-dead 'do-or-die' promise. If we crash out on October 31st, he'll be gleefully pointing to the chaos and blaming Boris for doing the wrong kind of no-deal. And in the vanishingly unlikely scenario of an orderly exit on October 31st, he'll be running the betrayal line, gleefully quoting all the stuff Boris has stupidly said about vassalage.

    Quite why the Tories have been stupid enough to set themselves up for this multi-pronged trap, actively seeking to make it as damaging for themselves as possible, will no doubt be an interesting study for future historians.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 1,790
    Regarding the thread, that "latest polling" from YouGov is unusually quite out of date. Fieldwork started on 21st July, 17 days ago and two days before Johnson had taken over from May. Johnson added 7% to the Conservative Party's poll rating with YouGov between 23/24 and 29/30 July. If that poll was repeated now I would certainly expect that more than 62% of Leave voters would give him a favourable rating based on his first fortnight's work.

    The other point of note is that many incoming PMs come in with a fairly blank canvass having emerged from the shadows and initially gain the benefit of the doubt. May and Major were cases in point. Brown was defined and had favourable ratings, but those derived from having been a highly successful Chancellor and by being seen to have forced out the then deeply unpopular Blair, so his case was something of an exception. By contrast, in the present context where politicians are defined both by their stance on Brexit divide AND by the left/right divide it would be difficult to see any incoming PM gaining a favourable rating. So I think that a thread based on comparing Johnson's ratings with what would "generally" be expected amounts to a false comparison.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    Remainers and young people hate Bozo. Who knew?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    There was an alternative: to seek an extension, come up with a policy (which could even include crashing out, if that's what he wanted, or better still ratifying the WA), and call an election or a referendum to get a mandate for that policy.
  • There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227


    What is her favourite biscuit? Pryaniki?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218
    edited August 7

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    There was an alternative: to seek an extension, come up with a policy (which could even include crashing out, if that's what he wanted, or better still ratifying the WA), and call an election or a referendum to get a mandate for that policy.
    That's not an alternative end state that's just politics. The governments job is to try and implement its policy first and if it can't there can still be an election.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 741
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    So could Boris Johnson be the first PM to score a straight -100, in a few months' time?

    Not as long as Corbyn is the alternative.
    YOu do not understand how favourability ratings work.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,064

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    What if the car were a Renault or BMW and deserved being set on fire for being foreign? Even if it hurts the owner more than the non-buyer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    DavidL said:

    FPT

    Pulpstar said:
    Does the German chart mean the ECB will probably hold rates near zero for the forseeable future ?

    I said:
    Deposit rates with the ECB have been negative for some time. Lending rates are currently at record lows of 1.95% and heading lower. Despite the fact that you are having to pay Germany to look after your money their Target balances within the EZ are moving inexorably to 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859

    The only thing that can save the EZ from yet another recession is a major increase in public spending combined with tax cuts in Germany to boost demand. And I don't see that happening whilst Merkel is there.

    Germany is planning (albeit modest) fiscal stimulus of around 0.5% of GDP this year, which is the highest for the best part of a decade. The correct number, which would also lower Germany's damagingly large current account surplus, is probably 1.5-2.0%.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    How Trump and Xi Can Make America and China Poor Again

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/opinion/trump-china-trade.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    The China-US trade dispute is deeply worrying.

    Why is everything going wrong at once?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111
    edited August 7

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    edited August 7
    So that's the decided Labour leadership strategy now ?
    Attempt to win a general election as we get a timed-out no deal Brexit, and hang the consequences.

    Though, to be fair, there are a number of possible interpretations of that stream of non-sequiturs.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 152
    148grss said:
    I thought non tariff barriers were all the rage these days.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    Both no deal and remain are methods of walking away, and both are better than the undemocratic backstop.

    However in the context of a negotiation revocation is unreasonable. Like it or not the EU is our opposition in this negotiation and they want us to remain. Saying "give us a good deal or we will do exactly what you want" is unreasonable so remain has to be off the table.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,966

    How Trump and Xi Can Make America and China Poor Again

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/opinion/trump-china-trade.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    The China-US trade dispute is deeply worrying.

    Why is everything going wrong at once?

    Only one place this ends up.
    [whatever happened to quality satire?]
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,251
    Nigelb said:

    So that's the decided Labour leadership strategy now ?
    Attempt to win a general election as we get a timed-out no deal Brexit, and hang the consequences.

    Though, to be fair, there are a number of possible interpretations of that stream of non-sequiturs.
    Yet another example of politicians being against something, but not willing to actually prevent it happening.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 152
    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    It is an analogy that doesn't work because it isn't one person making a decision and then changing her minds. It was a democratic vote of millions, and virtually everyone has the same position they did three years ago. I think it was the wrong decision, but we lost, so we need to follow that through. For those of us that disagree, we should immediately start a campaign to rejoin and push whichever party is best placed to include a referendum on that in its manifesto. That is democracy.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    Johnson has walked into Farage's trap. His only real policy is to appropriate Brexit Party supporters to the Conservatives, by never being outflanked on the lunacy. Farage can now taunt Johnson with ever more extreme and idiotic statements and there's nothing Johnson can do about it. He can't now say, this is nonsense. He's committed.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 282

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    Is there any evidence or source of evidence you would be willing to accept that could convince you the outcomes of Brexit could be bad?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945

    TGOHF said:

    On topic - this is no surprise.

    Personality is one thing but voters want action and results.

    Hence why Mrs May plunged to the ground.

    But Mrs May didn't have a personality. And, in a sense, she did take action and get results. She couldn't ultimately sell that result, but in many ways she was the antithesis of Johnson - a thoroughly boring person who wasn't afraid of hard work.
    She didn't get a result at all - she brought back a shit sandwich and complained when nobody tucked in.

    As for her non Brexit agenda - it was entirely non existent.

    Wet Tories want a decade of dithering - get that in the sea.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    So that's the decided Labour leadership strategy now ?
    Attempt to win a general election as we get a timed-out no deal Brexit, and hang the consequences.

    Though, to be fair, there are a number of possible interpretations of that stream of non-sequiturs.
    Yet another example of politicians being against something, but not willing to actually prevent it happening.
    I assume as RLB is one of the anointed who the Left see as future leader when the terrible day comes for Corbyn to stand down, that she is a fully fledged LEXITeer.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,966
    FF43 said:

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    Johnson has walked into Farage's trap. His only real policy is to appropriate Brexit Party supporters to the Conservatives, by never being outflanked on the lunacy. Farage can now taunt Johnson with ever more extreme and idiotic statements and there's nothing Johnson can do about it. He can't now say, this is nonsense. He's committed.
    But Johnson is now PM. He has, in his own mind, already "won". And fuck the consequences for party and country.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    FF43 said:

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    Johnson has walked into Farage's trap. His only real policy is to appropriate Brexit Party supporters to the Conservatives, by never being outflanked on the lunacy. Farage can now taunt Johnson with ever more extreme and idiotic statements and there's nothing Johnson can do about it. He can't now say, this is nonsense. He's committed.
    Johnson appears to be walking toward more votes, even as he jettisons loyalists like David H, TSE, and Big G.

    Unfortunately those new voters tend to be volatile and flakey as hell.

    Still, Corbyn.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    Gabs2 said:

    148grss said:
    I thought non tariff barriers were all the rage these days.
    Non tariff barriers can best be removed by some level of political integration, which we're rejecting.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,584
    Anorak said:

    How Trump and Xi Can Make America and China Poor Again

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/opinion/trump-china-trade.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    The China-US trade dispute is deeply worrying.

    Why is everything going wrong at once?

    Only one place this ends up.
    [whatever happened to quality satire?]
    We elected them. Satire gave up.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    148grss said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    Is there any evidence or source of evidence you would be willing to accept that could convince you the outcomes of Brexit could be bad?
    I accept they "could" be bad. But more likely we're going to end up saving 350 mil per week for our beloved NHS and more democratic control over the policies of this island.
  • glwglw Posts: 5,251

    I assume as RLB is one of the anointed who the Left see as future leader when the terrible day comes for Corbyn to stand down, that she is a fully fledged LEXITeer.

    Ah yes the fabled zero downside Brexit, where we get to pick and choose from the four freedoms.

    The asteroid/military coup cannot come soon enough IMHO.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 5,966
    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Gabs2 said:

    148grss said:
    I thought non tariff barriers were all the rage these days.
    Non tariff barriers can best be removed by some level of political integration, which we're rejecting.
    Not interested in that so what's next best without any integration?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 9,584
    @Philip_Thompson

    In your many emails on the previous thread, you found it difficult to comprehend that the value of Sterling should exercise people's minds when what is important to them is wages, employment et al. Apologies if somebody has already pointed it out, but the wages of many non-Leavers are paid in Sterling.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Residents of the rock are entitled to free will and to control their own destiny. Why shouldn't we have the same rights?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111
    edited August 7
    Gabs2 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    It is an analogy that doesn't work because it isn't one person making a decision and then changing her minds. It was a democratic vote of millions, and virtually everyone has the same position they did three years ago. I think it was the wrong decision, but we lost, so we need to follow that through. For those of us that disagree, we should immediately start a campaign to rejoin and push whichever party is best placed to include a referendum on that in its manifesto. That is democracy.
    I agree.

    It's a total Catch22. Brexit will fail. It (more or less) always was going to fail. People made a decision on a set of assumptions that predicted success, but which were false assumptions. So you either continue on a path to failure because you are mandated to do so or you attempt to avoid failure and in doing so go against democracy. Holding a second vote doesn't solve the problem for other reasons.

    How this gets resolved eventually makes Brexit interesting despite the miserable experience of it.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 152

    Gabs2 said:

    148grss said:
    I thought non tariff barriers were all the rage these days.
    Non tariff barriers can best be removed by some level of political integration, which we're rejecting.
    I agree, but there is still room to negotiate short of that. Look at the Canada-EU deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    edited August 7
    viewcode said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    In your many emails on the previous thread, you found it difficult to comprehend that the value of Sterling should exercise people's minds when what is important to them is wages, employment et al. Apologies if somebody has already pointed it out, but the wages of many non-Leavers are paid in Sterling.

    The wages AND* expenses of both leavers and remainers are paid in Sterling. So that's a moot point. That is why inflation matters.

    * Some people chose to live in one country and be paid from another. That's an extreme minority, their own extreme choice and their own responsibility.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607
    FF43 said:

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    Johnson has walked into Farage's trap. His only real policy is to appropriate Brexit Party supporters to the Conservatives, by never being outflanked on the lunacy. Farage can now taunt Johnson with ever more extreme and idiotic statements and there's nothing Johnson can do about it. He can't now say, this is nonsense. He's committed.
    The next step for Nigel might be to declare that WTO terms amount to a profound and unacceptable assault on our national freedom. Nigel could arrange a march whose slogan is 'No No No to WTO' for example. Boris would probably feel compelled to fall into line.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    148grss said:
    I thought non tariff barriers were all the rage these days.
    Non tariff barriers can best be removed by some level of political integration, which we're rejecting.
    I agree, but there is still room to negotiate short of that. Look at the Canada-EU deal.
    First we need to determine our relationship with the EU. Unless we know where we will draw our customs borders, we can't negotiate on trade with anyone else.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    edited August 7
    Double post.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111
    Anorak said:

    FF43 said:

    No sign of Farage wanting to be helpful to Johnson.

    Quite what is Farage up to?
    Johnson has walked into Farage's trap. His only real policy is to appropriate Brexit Party supporters to the Conservatives, by never being outflanked on the lunacy. Farage can now taunt Johnson with ever more extreme and idiotic statements and there's nothing Johnson can do about it. He can't now say, this is nonsense. He's committed.
    But Johnson is now PM. He has, in his own mind, already "won". And fuck the consequences for party and country.
    Johnson's problem is that half the country will blame him for the Brexit mess. The other half don't believe in Brexit mess, so will blame the undeniable mess on him for other reasons.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    This is an interesting set of figures:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/politics/how-democratic-candidate-donors-overlap/

    Perhaps a good way to get a handle on whose support is likely to go where, as candidates flatlining in the polls drop out.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 20,945
    3 years of dithering beyond the referendum - 3 wasted years.

    Time to end the stasis.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    148grss said:
    I thought non tariff barriers were all the rage these days.
    Non tariff barriers can best be removed by some level of political integration, which we're rejecting.
    I agree, but there is still room to negotiate short of that. Look at the Canada-EU deal.
    First we need to determine our relationship with the EU. Unless we know where we will draw our customs borders, we can't negotiate on trade with anyone else.
    Our border.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    TGOHF said:

    3 years of dithering beyond the referendum - 3 wasted years.

    Time to end the stasis.

    Schedule a border poll or a second independence referendum?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432



    What is her favourite biscuit? Pryaniki?

    Good training for PMQs, where any connection between questions and answers is purely coincidental. Theresa May was found to be the most evasive, and it would not be surprising if, faced with the forensic questioning of Jeremy Corbyn, Boris takes her record.

    RLB is a best-priced 13/2 with Bet365 for next Labour leader.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    TGOHF said:

    3 years of dithering beyond the referendum - 3 wasted years.

    Time to end the stasis.

    Schedule a border poll or a second independence referendum?
    No. JFDI Brexit.

    If people want either of those they can get a majority to vote for it afterwards. They're not relevant.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Residents of the rock are entitled to free will and to control their own destiny. Why shouldn't we have the same rights?
    Absolutely. Let's have a vote.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131

    TGOHF said:

    3 years of dithering beyond the referendum - 3 wasted years.

    Time to end the stasis.

    Schedule a border poll or a second independence referendum?
    You just can't wait to be rid of us can you?

    God knows what the "true" cybernats think of support from an little Englander like you.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    Chris said:

    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Residents of the rock are entitled to free will and to control their own destiny. Why shouldn't we have the same rights?
    Absolutely. Let's have a vote.
    Oh no, I forgot. We have to have something called No Deal that nobody mentioned during the referendum campaign and nobidy voted for.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Chris said:

    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Residents of the rock are entitled to free will and to control their own destiny. Why shouldn't we have the same rights?
    Absolutely. Let's have a vote.
    We had one. Now we need to JFDI.

    We can then vote at the next election to reverse or change our path if we aren't happy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,324



    What is her favourite biscuit? Pryaniki?

    Good training for PMQs, where any connection between questions and answers is purely coincidental. Theresa May was found to be the most evasive, and it would not be surprising if, faced with the forensic questioning of Jeremy Corbyn, Boris takes her record.

    RLB is a best-priced 13/2 with Bet365 for next Labour leader.
    We're going to miss Corbyn when he's gone, aren't we?

    (Things you never believed you would write #327)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    Chris said:

    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Residents of the rock are entitled to free will and to control their own destiny. Why shouldn't we have the same rights?
    Absolutely. Let's have a vote.
    We had one. Now we need to JFDI.

    We can then vote at the next election to reverse or change our path if we aren't happy.
    Just fucking do something that was never mentioned during the referendum campaign and that nobody voted for?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227



    What is her favourite biscuit? Pryaniki?

    Good training for PMQs, where any connection between questions and answers is purely coincidental. Theresa May was found to be the most evasive, and it would not be surprising if, faced with the forensic questioning of Jeremy Corbyn, Boris takes her record.

    RLB is a best-priced 13/2 with Bet365 for next Labour leader.
    Beyond belief.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    TGOHF said:

    3 years of dithering beyond the referendum - 3 wasted years.

    Time to end the stasis.

    Schedule a border poll or a second independence referendum?
    You just can't wait to be rid of us can you?

    God knows what the "true" cybernats think of support from an little Englander like you.
    I want us to be peers in the European Union.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Residents of the rock are entitled to free will and to control their own destiny. Why shouldn't we have the same rights?
    Absolutely. Let's have a vote.
    We had one. Now we need to JFDI.

    We can then vote at the next election to reverse or change our path if we aren't happy.
    Just fucking do something that was never mentioned during the referendum campaign and that nobody voted for?
    We voted to leave. We need to just do that.

    We could leave with or without a deal but Parliament ruled out with so we only have one choice left.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    edited August 7

    TGOHF said:

    3 years of dithering beyond the referendum - 3 wasted years.

    Time to end the stasis.

    Schedule a border poll or a second independence referendum?
    You just can't wait to be rid of us can you?

    God knows what the "true" cybernats think of support from an little Englander like you.
    I want us to be peers in the European Union.
    Lol with an intervening period of two hard borders.

    Anyway, I said I was curious as to what they think; not you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Anorak said:

    A fat fraction of the leaver community is happy to chuck both NI and Scotland in the bin to achieve their nirvana, why do you think a poxy rock on the coast of Spain will give them a moment's pause.
    Residents of the rock are entitled to free will and to control their own destiny. Why shouldn't we have the same rights?
    Absolutely. Let's have a vote.
    Oh no, I forgot. We have to have something called No Deal that nobody mentioned during the referendum campaign and nobody voted for.
    It was mentioned - and denied as project fear.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    How Trump and Xi Can Make America and China Poor Again

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/opinion/trump-china-trade.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    The China-US trade dispute is deeply worrying.

    Why is everything going wrong at once?

    Don't forget the South Korea / Japan dispute.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 723
    Talking about our 3 resident Tory members becoming ex-Tories, is there any anecdotal evidence of sane Tories decamping ? There is in the Labour party - not necessarily an avalanche but steady drip.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
    Why should anyone slightly objective believe that, contrary to the evidence they can see?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
    Those medium term “quids in” prospects must be why investors are lining up to put a their money in Britain.

    Oh wait, they’re not.

    Do you have any credible economic theory for believing we will be “quids in”?

    Didn’t think so.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
    Why should anyone slightly objective believe that, contrary to the evidence they can see?
    The evidence? There's no evidence yet. All we've got are forecasts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
    A familiar tone.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    I've just had Priti Patel's constituents Summer newsletter. Don't know why I don't block it; always annoys me. Very laudatory about Johnson, and the quotes are from before she was made Home Sec.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
    Those medium term “quids in” prospects must be why investors are lining up to put a their money in Britain.

    Oh wait, they’re not.

    Do you have any credible economic theory for believing we will be “quids in”?

    Didn’t think so.
    We'll be saving 350 million quid per week - "quids in" - who needs economic theory when you've got hard accounts data.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607
    Wow. This surprised me - from The Express of all places. Basically: the EU is completely prepared for No Deal, have sussed the government's chicaneries and Boris is stuffed.


    And it is Mr Johnson’s tactical posturing that leaves Brussels thankful that its no-deal Brexit preparations are up to scratch.

    Eurocrats believe that their planning far outweighs the contingency work undertaken by the British Government under Theresa May.

    One EU source said: “Brussels will stand fast on the backstop and the issue of no deal because our contingency planning is way further advanced than Britain’s.

    “We are prepared to offer financial support for Ireland and other frontline countries – including France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

    “There have been no signs of member states wanting to take a different approach or even considering divide and rule to prevent no deal.”


    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1160249/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Boris-Johnson-Ireland-backstop-no-deal-Brexit-latest-update
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
    Those medium term “quids in” prospects must be why investors are lining up to put a their money in Britain.

    Oh wait, they’re not.

    Do you have any credible economic theory for believing we will be “quids in”?

    Didn’t think so.
    We'll be saving 350 million quid per week - "quids in" - who needs economic theory when you've got hard accounts data.
    Even on that pathetic measure, we only get half of that of course. Meanwhile the economy is losing billions in reduced output.

    I’ll put you in the “stupid” bucket.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
    Why should anyone slightly objective believe that, contrary to the evidence they can see?
    What evidence?

    The reason people are harping on about bollocks like sterling when we both earn our income and spend our expenditure in sterling so it's moot is because there is no real evidence.

    Employment is up, wages are up, inflation is low. A trifecta of good news but why let that stand in the way of a good moan?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    There was no alternative Mr Nabavi.

    Continuous extensions were no end state. Parliament rejected the deal, the EU is unwilling to talk, we know our options it is time to make a decision and rip off the bandage.

    Or to say, "to be honest, the best deal available really wasn't as good as we'd hoped. So let's revoke, remain, and tackle the myriad other issues facing Britain and the world."
    This is an interesting point. People often say, reasonably enough, that if you can't get a good enough deal, you should walk away from it.

    The thing is, though, that in normal cases - such as selling your car - if you walk away from the deal, you revert to the status quo. You don't get left with the burnt-out hulk of your car and no money. The status quo in this case is Remain, and the way to walk away from the deal if we don't like it is to revoke Article 50.
    In business or daily life when you make a decision to discover later it's not going to work, you pause and either cancel it or delay until you get the issues resolved. That's a sensible way of doing things.
    Only Remainiacs think it's not going to work and they've been saying that since 24th July 2016 - almost like they're just whining about not winning.
    If Brexit was going to be a success, we would have left by now, the Leave plan detailing the steps to success would be in execution, negotiations would be firming up and the so called Remainiacs would be keeping very quiet...

    Please excuse me while I get over my (bitter) laughter...

    Leavers will blame the EU, Remainers, anyone except themselves, for the consequences of their decision. But blame doesn't substitute for success.
    Brexit will be a success. The EU is making it very difficult to leave, because they don't want anyone else to leave.

    We'll have some hiccups short term - but medium run we're quids in.
    Those medium term “quids in” prospects must be why investors are lining up to put a their money in Britain.

    Oh wait, they’re not.

    Do you have any credible economic theory for believing we will be “quids in”?

    Didn’t think so.
    We'll be saving 350 million quid per week - "quids in" - who needs economic theory when you've got hard accounts data.
    You sound like the kind of person who would look at their personal finances and decide to leave their job to be quids in on the petrol money.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,689
    edited August 7
    If the price of oil keeps dropping like it is at the moment there's going to be a revolution in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and a few other places.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131

    Wow. This surprised me - from The Express of all places. Basically: the EU is completely prepared for No Deal, have sussed the government's chicaneries and Boris is stuffed.


    And it is Mr Johnson’s tactical posturing that leaves Brussels thankful that its no-deal Brexit preparations are up to scratch.

    Eurocrats believe that their planning far outweighs the contingency work undertaken by the British Government under Theresa May.

    One EU source said: “Brussels will stand fast on the backstop and the issue of no deal because our contingency planning is way further advanced than Britain’s.

    “We are prepared to offer financial support for Ireland and other frontline countries – including France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

    “There have been no signs of member states wanting to take a different approach or even considering divide and rule to prevent no deal.”


    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1160249/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Boris-Johnson-Ireland-backstop-no-deal-Brexit-latest-update

    You say "Boris is Stuffed" - I think you mean "Britain is Free"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    AndyJS said:

    If the price of oil keeps dropping like it is at the moment there's going to be a revolution in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and a few other places.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    Let us pray.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954

    Talking about our 3 resident Tory members becoming ex-Tories, is there any anecdotal evidence of sane Tories decamping ? There is in the Labour party - not necessarily an avalanche but steady drip.

    It's 4 in total isn't it:

    Nabavi
    Herdson
    Big G
    TSE

    Any more?
This discussion has been closed.