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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 8 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

In all the reactions to the Times front page about the possibility of Johnson staying on as PM even if Parliament passes a VoNC in him and prefers someone else who can command the House, two absences were notable: (1) no immediate denial by No 10; and (2) no outrage by the official Opposition at the prospect of what would seem to be an appalling breach of normally understood conventions, moreover ones which would normally benefit the opposition.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Top piece again.
  • Oh was that a primus inter pares?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 76,386
    edited August 8
    Sic semper tyrannis.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,432
    First after disqualifications.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Continuing with a No Deal Brexit is the status quo. It is literally what the law says at the minute and has been for years and opposition MPs knew that. Revocation, extension or agreeing a deal are changes that could be made, but they are changes that need to occur before 31 October.

    If we enter purdah then we reasonably enter lockdown as it stands - and as it stands there is no deal, Parliament rejected it. As it stands there is no extension - Parliament hasn't agreed it. As it stands there is no revocation - Parliament has rejected it. As it stands there is no deal - that is literally the law.

    If opposition MPs pull down the government too late to change the law, then its not the government's fault and the government isn't breaking purdah to continue with the law of the land as it is stands. You may not be happy with that, it may defeat the purpose of the election but blame the MPs who chose not to call a VONC or call an election while it was still possible to change the law.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    edited August 8
    Great piece.

    But why should have Boris, “of all people, realised the folly of making promises you know you cannot keep”?

    He had never knowingly kept a promise and like many in the British establishment, keeps failing upwards.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    As an analogy it is like we are driving down the motorway with full traffic on the outside lane of the motorway and then as we are parallel to the exit passengers [opponents of No Deal] suddenly shout they want to take the exit.

    The driver [Boris] wanted to continue straight ahead but it is too late anyway, to swerve across three lanes of traffic now would be disruptive, dangerous and he's reasonably able to say no I'm not going to do that.

    The passengers have gone along with the ride until it was past the point of changing direction. Not reasonable to expect Boris to change direction then when he doesn't want to or need to. The law stands, we exit 31 October.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    Very good article, Cyclefree.

    I doubt he's thought it through. I expect Cummings has and is happy to "game" No Deal by filibustering until 31st October, after which the world will change.

    One thing I'm not sure has been touched on is the possibility another law is passed by Parliament compelling him to seek an extension, immediately before they then pass a VoNC to force an election. That could be one way out, and he could just shrug and blame Parliament. But it requires a lot of coordination.

    By the way, I owe you an unreserved apology for how I spoke to you on here the other day. I let my frustrations get the better of me and took them out on you. It was totally uncalled for and I apologise unreservedly: I'm sorry.

    It won't happen again.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 947
    edited August 8

    Continuing with a No Deal Brexit is the status quo. It is literally what the law says at the minute and has been for years and opposition MPs knew that. Revocation, extension or agreeing a deal are changes that could be made, but they are changes that need to occur before 31 October.

    If we enter purdah then we reasonably enter lockdown as it stands - and as it stands there is no deal, Parliament rejected it. As it stands there is no extension - Parliament hasn't agreed it. As it stands there is no revocation - Parliament has rejected it. As it stands there is no deal - that is literally the law.

    If opposition MPs pull down the government too late to change the law, then its not the government's fault and the government isn't breaking purdah to continue with the law of the land as it is stands. You may not be happy with that, it may defeat the purpose of the election but blame the MPs who chose not to call a VONC or call an election while it was still possible to change the law.

    I've raised this a couple of times, but (and obviously remainers like me wouldn't want to rely on this) why wouldn't the EU stop the clock if an event like a GE was going to take us past the 31/10 deadline. What have they got to lose by doing so? Worse case scenario is we are in the same mess, but it also might result in clarity one way or another.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120
    McDonnell has now responded to Johnson's threats by saying he'll send Corbyn to the Palace in a taxi to inform HM that they're taking over.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/jeremy-corbyn-will-tell-queen-were-taking-over-if-boris-johnson-loses-power-over-no-deal-brexit-3kf6xw2bd
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,522
    Morning all :)

    An interesting piece though I'm not sure I wholly agree. As we saw last time, Governments can and do use elections to fly kites for controversial legislation as manifesto proposals to be enacted if they are re-elected.

    I've now seen November 1st mooted as a GE date so the day after we leave the EU presumably without a WA so a sense of national euphoria (for some) but too early to see the economic impacts hitting home. Indeed, with many postal votes going in before 31/10, those anticipating No Deal can safely vote knowing Boris can't or won't renege.

    IF the economic consequences are as deleterious as many believe, the re-elected Johnson Government will have a very early mid-term slump but presumably the CCHQ calculations are there will be plenty of time for the economic storm to pass and for the good times to roll before a 2024 GE though were Johnson then to be facing a new centrist Labour leader that would be a very different contest.

    We are a long way from that but September will be crunch time for those opposed to No Deal. I expect the EU to offer a new extension which Johnson will reject but that may be challenged on the floor of the Commons. Presumably, if compelled by the Commons to agree to a new extension, Johnson would resign and call a GE on a "only I can end the Brexit nightmare" ticket.

    As ComRes pointed out, calling the GE before 31/10 is much riskier for Johnson than calling it in the immediate aftermath of departure so I can see why 1/11 is entering GE date calculations but there's an awful lot of water to go under those bridges yet.
  • HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432
    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Never mind Malcolm Rifkind, it has been mentioned on pb before.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    kjh said:

    Continuing with a No Deal Brexit is the status quo. It is literally what the law says at the minute and has been for years and opposition MPs knew that. Revocation, extension or agreeing a deal are changes that could be made, but they are changes that need to occur before 31 October.

    If we enter purdah then we reasonably enter lockdown as it stands - and as it stands there is no deal, Parliament rejected it. As it stands there is no extension - Parliament hasn't agreed it. As it stands there is no revocation - Parliament has rejected it. As it stands there is no deal - that is literally the law.

    If opposition MPs pull down the government too late to change the law, then its not the government's fault and the government isn't breaking purdah to continue with the law of the land as it is stands. You may not be happy with that, it may defeat the purpose of the election but blame the MPs who chose not to call a VONC or call an election while it was still possible to change the law.

    I've raised this a couple of times, but (and obviously remainers like me wouldn't want to rely on this) why wouldn't the EU stop the clock if an event like a GE was going to take us past the 31/10 deadline. What have they got to lose by doing so? Worse case scenario is we are in the same mess, but it also might result in clarity one way or another.
    They can't. Article 50 says any extension must be agreed with the departing state. Boris wouldn't agree to an extension, therefore the EU can't stop the clock.

    3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    edited August 8
    Johnson is looking more diminished by the day. Only the blind deaf and dumb (and HYUFD) could be unaware of the contempt he's held in. I went to a meeting last night and no one was interested in talking about brexit but everyone made clear Johnson repulsed them.

    Contrary to what I thought at first the opposition parties should hold their fire. The more people are seeing the smirking buffoon the less they are seeing him as a serious player.

    By the time parliament reconvenes his days will be numbered. So let it be.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Why does the falling pound make a UK based holiday more affordable? Or does he mean in comparison going elsewhere because that’s become more expensive?
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803

    kjh said:

    Continuing with a No Deal Brexit is the status quo. It is literally what the law says at the minute and has been for years and opposition MPs knew that. Revocation, extension or agreeing a deal are changes that could be made, but they are changes that need to occur before 31 October.

    If we enter purdah then we reasonably enter lockdown as it stands - and as it stands there is no deal, Parliament rejected it. As it stands there is no extension - Parliament hasn't agreed it. As it stands there is no revocation - Parliament has rejected it. As it stands there is no deal - that is literally the law.

    If opposition MPs pull down the government too late to change the law, then its not the government's fault and the government isn't breaking purdah to continue with the law of the land as it is stands. You may not be happy with that, it may defeat the purpose of the election but blame the MPs who chose not to call a VONC or call an election while it was still possible to change the law.

    I've raised this a couple of times, but (and obviously remainers like me wouldn't want to rely on this) why wouldn't the EU stop the clock if an event like a GE was going to take us past the 31/10 deadline. What have they got to lose by doing so? Worse case scenario is we are in the same mess, but it also might result in clarity one way or another.
    They can't. Article 50 says any extension must be agreed with the departing state. Boris wouldn't agree to an extension, therefore the EU can't stop the clock.

    3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period
    Which is why Boris is going to be the shortest serving PM of all time..
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,741
    Endillion said:

    McDonnell has now responded to Johnson's threats by saying he'll send Corbyn to the Palace in a taxi to inform HM that they're taking over.

    Genève to the Stantsiya Finlyandskiy all over again.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    edited August 8

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    An interesting piece though I'm not sure I wholly agree. As we saw last time, Governments can and do use elections to fly kites for controversial legislation as manifesto proposals to be enacted if they are re-elected.

    I've now seen November 1st mooted as a GE date so the day after we leave the EU presumably without a WA so a sense of national euphoria (for some) but too early to see the economic impacts hitting home. Indeed, with many postal votes going in before 31/10, those anticipating No Deal can safely vote knowing Boris can't or won't renege.

    IF the economic consequences are as deleterious as many believe, the re-elected Johnson Government will have a very early mid-term slump but presumably the CCHQ calculations are there will be plenty of time for the economic storm to pass and for the good times to roll before a 2024 GE though were Johnson then to be facing a new centrist Labour leader that would be a very different contest.

    We are a long way from that but September will be crunch time for those opposed to No Deal. I expect the EU to offer a new extension which Johnson will reject but that may be challenged on the floor of the Commons. Presumably, if compelled by the Commons to agree to a new extension, Johnson would resign and call a GE on a "only I can end the Brexit nightmare" ticket.

    As ComRes pointed out, calling the GE before 31/10 is much riskier for Johnson than calling it in the immediate aftermath of departure so I can see why 1/11 is entering GE date calculations but there's an awful lot of water to go under those bridges yet.

    Boris could be very cynical and call the election for Thursday 31 October. The day we Brexit. Polls would close at 10pm, 11pm we exit.

    By my maths that is the very first Thursday available to us now if we follow the FTPA to its logical conclusion. It can't be an earlier Thursday than that. So Parliament made that decision not Boris.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954

    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
    Yeah, Parliament cannot bind itself. Its past votes are irrelevant.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Roger said:

    Johnson is looking more diminished by the day. Only the blind deaf and dumb (and HYUFD) could be unaware of the contempt he's held in. I went to a meeting last night and no one was interested in talking about brexit but everyone made clear Johnson repulsed them.

    Contrary to what I thought at first the opposition parties should hold their fire. The more people are seeing the smirking buffoon the less they are seeing him as a serious player.

    By the time parliament reconvenes his days will be numbered. So let it be.

    Poppycock. I see a whole lot of Remainers outraged he may have defeated them and actually gotten Brexit delivered upset, don't see anyone else.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    FPT
    DavidL said:

    » show previous quotes
    The comment made to me at the time was Better Together is where Labour stalwarts taught Tories how to fight an election and win, something they had long since forgotten. There was undoubtedly some truth in that but describing it as a "Tory plot" or an "elephant trap" is a bit silly.

    The nasties took advantage of the dumb Labour party, who were easily taken in fuelled by their hatred of the SNP. They are reaping their just rewards.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Why does the falling pound make a UK based holiday more affordable? Or does he mean in comparison going elsewhere because that’s become more expensive?
    Who knows? Liddle’s job is to bandy around nostalgist and vaguely racist tropes to a brain-dead audience, not to be logical.

    Actually, a falling pound makes a UK holiday more expensive too, due to inflationary pressures, even if these are modest at present.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
    Yeah, Parliament cannot bind itself. Its past votes are irrelevant.
    I fully agree Parliament cannot bind itself, but its past votes are most definitely relevant they are the LAW.

    No Parliament can bind its successors, so if a future Parliament wishes to rejoin after we have left that is their prerogative. However if we leave on 31 October, even during an election campaign, that is due to the LAW that Parliament has passed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    What a pompous condescending ass you are.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427

    Boris is rejecting Parliament!


  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432

    Very good article, Cyclefree.

    I doubt he's thought it through. I expect Cummings has and is happy to "game" No Deal by filibustering until 31st October, after which the world will change.

    One thing I'm not sure has been touched on is the possibility another law is passed by Parliament compelling him to seek an extension, immediately before they then pass a VoNC to force an election. That could be one way out, and he could just shrug and blame Parliament. But it requires a lot of coordination.

    It is possible that Cummings does have that plan (to run down the clock to halloween) but the key question is whether Boris, who tells us crashing out is a million to one against, plans to blink in the event that the EU does not.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    What a pompous condescending ass you are.
    What, no turnip reference? I’m mildly disappointed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    What a pompous condescending ass you are.
    What, no turnip reference? I’m mildly disappointed.
    Why waste a turnip
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Scott_P said:

    Boris is rejecting Parliament!


    Change the cartoon to the car being on the motorway and move Grieve to being a protestor running onto the motorway and not a zebra crossing.

    We are long past the last zebra crossing before the exit. That is the point. Parliament could have passed a deal, Parliament could have changed the FTPA, Parliament could have called an earlier election. It hasn't. Game Over.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. P, ironic cartoon given Grieve's amendment is what stopped the deal passing.

    On-topic: as many have said, Boris Johnson is a daft sod.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,060

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    For good food outside London, I'd recommend North Yorkshire and South Devon. I'd say the quality of food in country pubs has improved dramatically in my lifetime.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Mr. P, ironic cartoon given Grieve's amendment is what stopped the deal passing.

    On-topic: as many have said, Boris Johnson is a daft sod.

    Law of unintended consequences.

    Grieve is the father of No Deal.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    I guess I should have known that Dominic Cummings, scourge of the elite, is part of the aristocracy. It makes sense.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    Very good article, Cyclefree.

    I doubt he's thought it through. I expect Cummings has and is happy to "game" No Deal by filibustering until 31st October, after which the world will change.

    One thing I'm not sure has been touched on is the possibility another law is passed by Parliament compelling him to seek an extension, immediately before they then pass a VoNC to force an election. That could be one way out, and he could just shrug and blame Parliament. But it requires a lot of coordination.

    It is possible that Cummings does have that plan (to run down the clock to halloween) but the key question is whether Boris, who tells us crashing out is a million to one against, plans to blink in the event that the EU does not.
    Cummings holds the ERG in contempt. Why would he sacrifice his own reputation to give them what they want?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    edited August 8
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    For good food outside London, I'd recommend North Yorkshire and South Devon. I'd say the quality of food in country pubs has improved dramatically in my lifetime.
    Thanks. I’m sure you’re right.
    Actually I said, “terrible” and I should have said “disappointing”. Kent is supposed to be the garden of England after all.

    South Devon is wonderful and the food is better, yes, although Sidmouth (for example) is the sort of place that annoys me - tatty and full of people on mobility scooters.

    Never been to North Yorkshire. It’s on the bucket list.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 947

    kjh said:

    Continuing with a No Deal Brexit is the status quo. It is literally what the law says at the minute and has been for years and opposition MPs knew that. Revocation, extension or agreeing a deal are changes that could be made, but they are changes that need to occur before 31 October.

    If we enter purdah then we reasonably enter lockdown as it stands - and as it stands there is no deal, Parliament rejected it. As it stands there is no extension - Parliament hasn't agreed it. As it stands there is no revocation - Parliament has rejected it. As it stands there is no deal - that is literally the law.

    If opposition MPs pull down the government too late to change the law, then its not the government's fault and the government isn't breaking purdah to continue with the law of the land as it is stands. You may not be happy with that, it may defeat the purpose of the election but blame the MPs who chose not to call a VONC or call an election while it was still possible to change the law.

    I've raised this a couple of times, but (and obviously remainers like me wouldn't want to rely on this) why wouldn't the EU stop the clock if an event like a GE was going to take us past the 31/10 deadline. What have they got to lose by doing so? Worse case scenario is we are in the same mess, but it also might result in clarity one way or another.
    They can't. Article 50 says any extension must be agreed with the departing state. Boris wouldn't agree to an extension, therefore the EU can't stop the clock.

    3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period
    The EU can do what it likes surely. It can voluntarily stop the clock. As with any agreement either party can vary it, it is just that the other party is not compelled to agree to that variation. It is not as if such a thing is uncommon.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    What a pompous condescending ass you are.
    What, no turnip reference? I’m mildly disappointed.
    Why waste a turnip
    LOL!
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 405
    Given Cummings prolonged stay in Russia, the financial associations that he made there and his professed "Russophilia", not to mention the allegations of covert Russian funding of the Leave campaign, I am struggling to understand how Cummings could gain the level of security clearance that his current job would seem to demand.

    Likewise the allegations that J R-M's investment business has a client base of largely Russian beneficial owners, which having met him in a previous life, I believe to be true.

    Incidentally the failure of the Ba.com website is exactly the kind of effect that we have been warned about concerning Russian cyber attacks. My long term connection with Estonia gives me a different perspective, but I am increasingly worried at the extremely casual approach that the UK is taking to its own security vis-a-vis the declared campaign of propaganda and subversion (and murder) that the Kremlin has been undertaking against Britain.

    Russian hybrid aggression against the UK has been going on for some time, yet the media - with honorable exceptions- seem strangely uninterested.

    Why?
  • Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    For good food outside London, I'd recommend North Yorkshire and South Devon. I'd say the quality of food in country pubs has improved dramatically in my lifetime.
    Thanks. I’m sure you’re right.
    Actually I said, “terrible” and I should have said “disappointing”. Kent is supposed to be the garden of England after all.

    South Devon is wonderful and the food is better, yes, although Sidmouth (for example) is the sort of place that annoys me - tatty and full of people on mobility scooters.

    Never been to North Yorkshire. It’s on the bucket list.
    Yorkshire is God's own country. The Garden of Eden was located in the Yorkshire Dales.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,689

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    There are plenty of nice places in England which don't get many visitors, like Derbyshire and Shropshire.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    edited August 8
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Continuing with a No Deal Brexit is the status quo. It is literally what the law says at the minute and has been for years and opposition MPs knew that. Revocation, extension or agreeing a deal are changes that could be made, but they are changes that need to occur before 31 October.

    If we enter purdah then we reasonably enter lockdown as it stands - and as it stands there is no deal, Parliament rejected it. As it stands there is no extension - Parliament hasn't agreed it. As it stands there is no revocation - Parliament has rejected it. As it stands there is no deal - that is literally the law.

    If opposition MPs pull down the government too late to change the law, then its not the government's fault and the government isn't breaking purdah to continue with the law of the land as it is stands. You may not be happy with that, it may defeat the purpose of the election but blame the MPs who chose not to call a VONC or call an election while it was still possible to change the law.

    I've raised this a couple of times, but (and obviously remainers like me wouldn't want to rely on this) why wouldn't the EU stop the clock if an event like a GE was going to take us past the 31/10 deadline. What have they got to lose by doing so? Worse case scenario is we are in the same mess, but it also might result in clarity one way or another.
    They can't. Article 50 says any extension must be agreed with the departing state. Boris wouldn't agree to an extension, therefore the EU can't stop the clock.

    3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period
    The EU can do what it likes surely. It can voluntarily stop the clock. As with any agreement either party can vary it, it is just that the other party is not compelled to agree to that variation. It is not as if such a thing is uncommon.
    No it must follow the law and its own constitution. The constitution is clear unless the European Council in agreement with the UK unanimously decides to extend the period then the UK exits automatically on 31 October. The EU can't just "do what it likes".

    The EUs constitution could be varied to change that absolutely. In order to do that there must be a Treaty passed to agree a change which must be passed unanimously by all members including . . . wait for it . . . the United Kingdom.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522

    I guess I should have known that Dominic Cummings, scourge of the elite, is part of the aristocracy. It makes sense.

    My neighbourhood is quite weird.

    Apart from Cummings, there is Lord Carlisle (who now runs some kind of freelance intelligence service), and various former MI5/MI6 apparatchiks.

    Mostly lawyers though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    Andrew Roberts very clear. Johnson will advise the Queen to not give Royal Assent to a No Deal blocking bill. And he will determine the date of the GE if there is a VoNC.

    Only mentions in passing that all this is moot if an alternative PM has command of the House in the 14 days.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/07/moment-comes-boris-should-not-afraid-enlist-queens-help-foiling/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    DavidL said:

    » show previous quotes
    The comment made to me at the time was Better Together is where Labour stalwarts taught Tories how to fight an election and win, something they had long since forgotten. There was undoubtedly some truth in that but describing it as a "Tory plot" or an "elephant trap" is a bit silly.

    The nasties took advantage of the dumb Labour party, who were easily taken in fuelled by their hatred of the SNP. They are reaping their just rewards.

    Judging by recent polls Slab didn't teach the SCons very well. In any case, apart from individual seats, what elections have the SCons won?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432

    Very good article, Cyclefree.

    I doubt he's thought it through. I expect Cummings has and is happy to "game" No Deal by filibustering until 31st October, after which the world will change.

    One thing I'm not sure has been touched on is the possibility another law is passed by Parliament compelling him to seek an extension, immediately before they then pass a VoNC to force an election. That could be one way out, and he could just shrug and blame Parliament. But it requires a lot of coordination.

    It is possible that Cummings does have that plan (to run down the clock to halloween) but the key question is whether Boris, who tells us crashing out is a million to one against, plans to blink in the event that the EU does not.
    Cummings holds the ERG in contempt. Why would he sacrifice his own reputation to give them what they want?
    The ERG should be held in contempt. I do not believe there is a settled or even consensus position held by the ERG. We've discussed before the failure of Cameron and then May to establish a commission to establish a blueprint for a post-Brexit position, but one corollary of this is that the ERG does not have one either (and nor does Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson, so far as I can see).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    There are plenty of nice places in England which don't get many visitors, like Derbyshire and Shropshire.
    Heading from Birmingham into Mid Wales is shockingly beautiful.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Continuing with a No Deal Brexit is the status quo. It is literally what the law says at the minute and has been for years and opposition MPs knew that. Revocation, extension or agreeing a deal are changes that could be made, but they are changes that need to occur before 31 October.

    If we enter purdah then we reasonably enter lockdown as it stands - and as it stands there is no deal, Parliament rejected it. As it stands there is no extension - Parliament hasn't agreed it. As it stands there is no revocation - Parliament has rejected it. As it stands there is no deal - that is literally the law.

    If opposition MPs pull down the government too late to change the law, then its not the government's fault and the government isn't breaking purdah to continue with the law of the land as it is stands. You may not be happy with that, it may defeat the purpose of the election but blame the MPs who chose not to call a VONC or call an election while it was still possible to change the law.

    I've raised this a couple of times, but (and obviously remainers like me wouldn't want to rely on this) why wouldn't the EU stop the clock if an event like a GE was going to take us past the 31/10 deadline. What have they got to lose by doing so? Worse case scenario is we are in the same mess, but it also might result in clarity one way or another.
    They can't. Article 50 says any extension must be agreed with the departing state. Boris wouldn't agree to an extension, therefore the EU can't stop the clock.

    3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period
    The EU can do what it likes surely. It can voluntarily stop the clock. As with any agreement either party can vary it, it is just that the other party is not compelled to agree to that variation. It is not as if such a thing is uncommon.
    No it must follow the law and its own constitution. The constitution is clear unless the European Council in agreement with the UK unanimously decides to extend the period then the UK exits automatically on 31 October. The EU can't just "do what it likes".

    The EUs constitution could be varied to change that absolutely. In order to do that there must be a Treaty passed to agree a change which must be passed unanimously by all members including . . . wait for it . . . the United Kingdom.

    Not if the Treaty was agreed after 31st October.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Borough, but if a bill has reached the Royal Assent stage it's already passed both Commons and Lords, right?

    In that circumstance HMQ will tell Johnson, politely, to piss off.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    There are plenty of nice places in England which don't get many visitors, like Derbyshire and Shropshire.

    Isn’t the Peak District the most visited national park in the UK?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,689
    Dominic Cummings' verdict on our elected representatives:

    "...parliament consists of people who "to a large extent are not particularly bright, are egomaniacs and they want to be on TV".

    https://news.sky.com/story/dominic-cummings-why-johnsons-top-adviser-would-relish-cutting-dreadful-mps-from-brexit-11779494
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Andrew Roberts very clear. Johnson will advise the Queen to not give Royal Assent to a No Deal blocking bill. And he will determine the date of the GE if there is a VoNC.

    Only mentions in passing that all this is moot if an alternative PM has command of the House in the 14 days.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/07/moment-comes-boris-should-not-afraid-enlist-queens-help-foiling/

    Too right too.

    If the opposition wants a No Deal blocking bill they should become the government and put their own name to that. Labour has made it clear Corbyn is the only option.

    So we are down to three options.

    1: EU blinks, gives us a better deal, we leave with that.
    2: EU does not blink, Parliament installs Corbyn.
    3: EU does not blink, Parliament blinks, No Deal.

    Cyclefree's idea that Boris will extend is a nonsense. If Parliament requires an extension it should send for Corbyn.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803

    Andrew Roberts very clear. Johnson will advise the Queen to not give Royal Assent to a No Deal blocking bill. And he will determine the date of the GE if there is a VoNC.

    Only mentions in passing that all this is moot if an alternative PM has command of the House in the 14 days.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/07/moment-comes-boris-should-not-afraid-enlist-queens-help-foiling/

    Typical ignoring of facts that don't fit the narrative..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    kjh said:

    The EU can do what it likes surely. It can voluntarily stop the clock. As with any agreement either party can vary it, it is just that the other party is not compelled to agree to that variation. It is not as if such a thing is uncommon.

    No it must follow the law and its own constitution. The constitution is clear unless the European Council in agreement with the UK unanimously decides to extend the period then the UK exits automatically on 31 October. The EU can't just "do what it likes".

    The EUs constitution could be varied to change that absolutely. In order to do that there must be a Treaty passed to agree a change which must be passed unanimously by all members including . . . wait for it . . . the United Kingdom.

    Not if the Treaty was agreed after 31st October.

    How can the EU unilaterally voluntarily stop the clock on the UK's exit by passing a Treaty after 31st October?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 149

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Why does the falling pound make a UK based holiday more affordable? Or does he mean in comparison going elsewhere because that’s become more expensive?
    Who knows? Liddle’s job is to bandy around nostalgist and vaguely racist tropes to a brain-dead audience, not to be logical.

    Actually, a falling pound makes a UK holiday more expensive too, due to inflationary pressures, even if these are modest at present.
    It probably also makes it more expensive because of increased demand - both from Uk holidaymakers who can't afford to go abroad any more, and foreigners who find the UK relatively cheaper. So could be quite a lot more than modest.

    On the other hand maybe Rod Liddle is paid in hard currency - after all the patriotic Spectator is owned by residents of Monaco, which uses the Euro.
  • Mr. Borough, but if a bill has reached the Royal Assent stage it's already passed both Commons and Lords, right?

    In that circumstance HMQ will tell Johnson, politely, to piss off.

    Yes.

    La Reyne le veult.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816
    kamski said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Why does the falling pound make a UK based holiday more affordable? Or does he mean in comparison going elsewhere because that’s become more expensive?
    Who knows? Liddle’s job is to bandy around nostalgist and vaguely racist tropes to a brain-dead audience, not to be logical.

    Actually, a falling pound makes a UK holiday more expensive too, due to inflationary pressures, even if these are modest at present.
    It probably also makes it more expensive because of increased demand - both from Uk holidaymakers who can't afford to go abroad any more, and foreigners who find the UK relatively cheaper. So could be quite a lot more than modest.

    On the other hand maybe Rod Liddle is paid in hard currency - after all the patriotic Spectator is owned by residents of Monaco, which uses the Euro.
    And the commissioning editor of the Spectator, i.e. the person who approves Rod Liddle's idea for an article, is Dominic Cummings' wife.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427
    AndyJS said:

    Dominic Cummings' verdict on our elected representatives:

    "...parliament consists of people who "to a large extent are not particularly bright, are egomaniacs and they want to be on TV".

    https://news.sky.com/story/dominic-cummings-why-johnsons-top-adviser-would-relish-cutting-dreadful-mps-from-brexit-11779494


    Cummings is merely the latest in a long line of geniuses to run things for the Conservatives in 10 Downing Street. First there was Andy Coulson, whose genius took him to prison. Then there was Steve Hilton, whose genius took him to a life of Donald Trump fanboyism on Fox News. Then there was Craig Oliver, whose genius took him to losing the referendum campaign. Then there was Nick Timothy, whose genius took him to tirelessly writing self-exculpating columns for the crime of accidentally detonating the full holy trinity: his career, his prime minister and his country.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/dominic-cummings-brexit-boris-johnson-vote-leave-nigel-farage-a9045766.html
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    edited August 8
    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dominic Cummings' verdict on our elected representatives:

    "...parliament consists of people who "to a large extent are not particularly bright, are egomaniacs and they want to be on TV".

    https://news.sky.com/story/dominic-cummings-why-johnsons-top-adviser-would-relish-cutting-dreadful-mps-from-brexit-11779494


    Cummings is merely the latest in a long line of geniuses to run things for the Conservatives in 10 Downing Street. First there was Andy Coulson, whose genius took him to prison. Then there was Steve Hilton, whose genius took him to a life of Donald Trump fanboyism on Fox News. Then there was Craig Oliver, whose genius took him to losing the referendum campaign. Then there was Nick Timothy, whose genius took him to tirelessly writing self-exculpating columns for the crime of accidentally detonating the full holy trinity: his career, his prime minister and his country.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/dominic-cummings-brexit-boris-johnson-vote-leave-nigel-farage-a9045766.html
    Bring back Bernard Ingham.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    DavidL said:

    » show previous quotes
    The comment made to me at the time was Better Together is where Labour stalwarts taught Tories how to fight an election and win, something they had long since forgotten. There was undoubtedly some truth in that but describing it as a "Tory plot" or an "elephant trap" is a bit silly.

    The nasties took advantage of the dumb Labour party, who were easily taken in fuelled by their hatred of the SNP. They are reaping their just rewards.

    Judging by recent polls Slab didn't teach the SCons very well. In any case, apart from individual seats, what elections have the SCons won?
    David , has eternal optimism for sure. They could not win an egg and spoon race.
  • AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes the insights of someone for who assaulting his pregnant girlfriend is a good holiday.

    I don’t work hard just so I can holiday in Cleethorpes.
    Britain is a great and beautiful country, but it is after all, very crowded, has variable weather, and many of its seaside resorts seem to want to cater to the lowest common demoninator for some reason. Good food is also an effort to find outside London.

    Last summer I holidayed first in Normandy and then in the Kentish Weald, with in-laws from NZ.

    Kent was (comparatively) shabby, chavvy, and the food terrible.
    There are plenty of nice places in England which don't get many visitors, like Derbyshire and Shropshire.
    Heading from Birmingham into Mid Wales is shockingly beautiful.
    Go to Bournemouth on a sunny day, pure heaven
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    On GNU:



    But they are. And that is the fundamental problem.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803

    Andrew Roberts very clear. Johnson will advise the Queen to not give Royal Assent to a No Deal blocking bill. And he will determine the date of the GE if there is a VoNC.

    Only mentions in passing that all this is moot if an alternative PM has command of the House in the 14 days.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/07/moment-comes-boris-should-not-afraid-enlist-queens-help-foiling/

    Too right too.

    If the opposition wants a No Deal blocking bill they should become the government and put their own name to that. Labour has made it clear Corbyn is the only option.

    So we are down to three options.

    1: EU blinks, gives us a better deal, we leave with that.
    2: EU does not blink, Parliament installs Corbyn.
    3: EU does not blink, Parliament blinks, No Deal.

    Cyclefree's idea that Boris will extend is a nonsense. If Parliament requires an extension it should send for Corbyn.
    +1 Corbyn doesn't need to do much - he just needs (someone) to get an extension and call an election for November 14th

    And if we don't leave on October 31st Nigel will destroy the Tory party...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432
    AndyJS said:

    Dominic Cummings' verdict on our elected representatives:

    "...parliament consists of people who "to a large extent are not particularly bright, are egomaniacs and they want to be on TV".

    https://news.sky.com/story/dominic-cummings-why-johnsons-top-adviser-would-relish-cutting-dreadful-mps-from-brexit-11779494

    That's true. Most of them went to Eton. Well, not most but lots. A plurality of Tory MPs, and six (is it?) old Etonians in the government. And despite overwhelming evidence of advanced muppetry, EdSec Williamson has not ordered an urgent Ofsted inspection of Slough Grammar.
  • I can't believe all the discussion on here on how parliament is going to subvert a democratic vote.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,689

    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dominic Cummings' verdict on our elected representatives:

    "...parliament consists of people who "to a large extent are not particularly bright, are egomaniacs and they want to be on TV".

    https://news.sky.com/story/dominic-cummings-why-johnsons-top-adviser-would-relish-cutting-dreadful-mps-from-brexit-11779494


    Cummings is merely the latest in a long line of geniuses to run things for the Conservatives in 10 Downing Street. First there was Andy Coulson, whose genius took him to prison. Then there was Steve Hilton, whose genius took him to a life of Donald Trump fanboyism on Fox News. Then there was Craig Oliver, whose genius took him to losing the referendum campaign. Then there was Nick Timothy, whose genius took him to tirelessly writing self-exculpating columns for the crime of accidentally detonating the full holy trinity: his career, his prime minister and his country.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/dominic-cummings-brexit-boris-johnson-vote-leave-nigel-farage-a9045766.html
    Bring back Bernard Ingham.
    Is it possible to buy fake bushy eyebrows?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    edited August 8

    kjh said:

    The EU can do what it likes surely. It can voluntarily stop the clock. As with any agreement either party can vary it, it is just that the other party is not compelled to agree to that variation. It is not as if such a thing is uncommon.

    No it must follow the law and its own constitution. The constitution is clear unless the European Council in agreement with the UK unanimously decides to extend the period then the UK exits automatically on 31 October. The EU can't just "do what it likes".

    The EUs constitution could be varied to change that absolutely. In order to do that there must be a Treaty passed to agree a change which must be passed unanimously by all members including . . . wait for it . . . the United Kingdom.

    Not if the Treaty was agreed after 31st October.

    How can the EU unilaterally voluntarily stop the clock on the UK's exit by passing a Treaty after 31st October?

    Very easily. It can hold-off any practical No Deal implementation and state that as far as it is concerned the clock is stopped until the election is decided. Purdah will do the rest.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,217
    Dura_Ace said:

    Endillion said:

    McDonnell has now responded to Johnson's threats by saying he'll send Corbyn to the Palace in a taxi to inform HM that they're taking over.

    Genève to the Stantsiya Finlyandskiy all over again.
    Every city, every nation.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432

    Roger said:

    Johnson is looking more diminished by the day. Only the blind deaf and dumb (and HYUFD) could be unaware of the contempt he's held in. I went to a meeting last night and no one was interested in talking about brexit but everyone made clear Johnson repulsed them.

    Contrary to what I thought at first the opposition parties should hold their fire. The more people are seeing the smirking buffoon the less they are seeing him as a serious player.

    By the time parliament reconvenes his days will be numbered. So let it be.

    Poppycock. I see a whole lot of Remainers outraged he may have defeated them and actually gotten Brexit delivered upset, don't see anyone else.
    Roger is right but perhaps for the wrong reason. It might be that once again the Conservative Party made the wrong call, in this instance by dragging out the leadership election till the Commons recess, and that Boris's image at home and in Brussels would be strengthened by a few commanding performances at the despatch box.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    eek said:

    Andrew Roberts very clear. Johnson will advise the Queen to not give Royal Assent to a No Deal blocking bill. And he will determine the date of the GE if there is a VoNC.

    Only mentions in passing that all this is moot if an alternative PM has command of the House in the 14 days.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/07/moment-comes-boris-should-not-afraid-enlist-queens-help-foiling/

    Too right too.

    If the opposition wants a No Deal blocking bill they should become the government and put their own name to that. Labour has made it clear Corbyn is the only option.

    So we are down to three options.

    1: EU blinks, gives us a better deal, we leave with that.
    2: EU does not blink, Parliament installs Corbyn.
    3: EU does not blink, Parliament blinks, No Deal.

    Cyclefree's idea that Boris will extend is a nonsense. If Parliament requires an extension it should send for Corbyn.
    +1 Corbyn doesn't need to do much - he just needs (someone) to get an extension and call an election for November 14th

    And if we don't leave on October 31st Nigel will destroy the Tory party...
    That would be very upsetting for all those Tories who are trying to destroy it themselves!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    Mr. Borough, but if a bill has reached the Royal Assent stage it's already passed both Commons and Lords, right?

    In that circumstance HMQ will tell Johnson, politely, to piss off.

    Yes.

    La Reyne le veult.
    Roberts thinks she wont. She will take the advice of her Ministers and PM. If Cabinet and PM all say don't sign Royal Assent, then he seems to think she wont.

    Talk about dragging the Queen into it!!! There is some precedent from 1708 apparently.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    Anorak said:
    Yes. Disappointing. I can see why they need to fend off accusations of propping up Corbyn, but they should simply cite Churchill, who would have made a complimentary reference to the devil in the House of Commons if it meant better means to defeat Hitler.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    On GNU:



    But they are. And that is the fundamental problem.

    Because all sweary Dunt cares about is stopping Brexit, while partisan politicians surprisingly turn out to be partisans.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    More evidence that climate change is at the very worrying end of predictions:
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/08/alaska-warmest-month-ever-july-2019-sea-ice
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 7,580

    On GNU:



    But they are. And that is the fundamental problem.

    Indeed. Life isn't run but what people 'should' do, but what they do do.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Mr. Borough, but if a bill has reached the Royal Assent stage it's already passed both Commons and Lords, right?

    In that circumstance HMQ will tell Johnson, politely, to piss off.

    Will she?

    In many countries the Head of Government holds veto powers, in the UK those powers are held by the Queen but the Head of Government wields her powers.

    If Parliament wants to pass the law, it can elect a new PM.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,826

    kjh said:

    The EU can do what it likes surely. It can voluntarily stop the clock. As with any agreement either party can vary it, it is just that the other party is not compelled to agree to that variation. It is not as if such a thing is uncommon.

    No it must follow the law and its own constitution. The constitution is clear unless the European Council in agreement with the UK unanimously decides to extend the period then the UK exits automatically on 31 October. The EU can't just "do what it likes".

    The EUs constitution could be varied to change that absolutely. In order to do that there must be a Treaty passed to agree a change which must be passed unanimously by all members including . . . wait for it . . . the United Kingdom.

    Not if the Treaty was agreed after 31st October.

    How can the EU unilaterally voluntarily stop the clock on the UK's exit by passing a Treaty after 31st October?

    Very easily. It can hold-off any practical No Deal implementation and state that as far as it is concerned the clock is stopped until the election is decided. Purdah will do the rest.
    Except as we said yesterday under the treaties that actually create and maintain the EU it cannot do that. They don't get to pick and choose which bits of the treaties they want to ignore unilaterally. Under Article 50, unless they get the agreement of the UK, we cease to be members of the EU on 31st October whether they plan for it or not.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,441

    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
    No deal does not have a mandate. The referendum was on the basis that there would be a deal.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    Nigelb said:

    More evidence that climate change is at the very worrying end of predictions:
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/08/alaska-warmest-month-ever-july-2019-sea-ice

    Nigelb said:

    More evidence that climate change is at the very worrying end of predictions:
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/08/alaska-warmest-month-ever-july-2019-sea-ice

    An independent UK of England and maybe wales will be able to resolve climate change all on its own I’m sure
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432
    Cicero said:

    Given Cummings prolonged stay in Russia, the financial associations that he made there and his professed "Russophilia", not to mention the allegations of covert Russian funding of the Leave campaign, I am struggling to understand how Cummings could gain the level of security clearance that his current job would seem to demand.

    Likewise the allegations that J R-M's investment business has a client base of largely Russian beneficial owners, which having met him in a previous life, I believe to be true.

    Incidentally the failure of the Ba.com website is exactly the kind of effect that we have been warned about concerning Russian cyber attacks. My long term connection with Estonia gives me a different perspective, but I am increasingly worried at the extremely casual approach that the UK is taking to its own security vis-a-vis the declared campaign of propaganda and subversion (and murder) that the Kremlin has been undertaking against Britain.

    Russian hybrid aggression against the UK has been going on for some time, yet the media - with honorable exceptions- seem strangely uninterested.

    Why?

    Fake news. That would be the cry. Of course the Russians are at it (and by the same token, the antisemites are almost certainly right that the Israeli embassy is working against them: what else are embassies for?). Not to mention the Americans have been undermining foreign governments for decades, and the KGB used to buy the Morning Star for wallpaper and waste paper.

    It ought to be deeply concerning that Russia is involved in social media manipulation (automated and human); that Russia has plans and weapons to disrupt communications cables and satellites; that it might even have agents (and does have useful idiots) at the highest level of western governments, including ours and America's. But it isn't.

    DJL's first law of politics: things that ought to matter, often don't.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Stardog, I think most MPs would like to vote against no deal but I'm not sure I can see it happening.

    Mr. Thompson, the PM cannot veto what the Commons votes for. He isn't a consul in ancient Rome. If the Commons votes for something then for the monarch to refuse it, except in the most extreme circumstances such as abolishing elections, would be absolutely unacceptable, especially if advised to refuse to pass the approved bill by a man who had lost the vote.
  • nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
    No deal does not have a mandate. The referendum was on the basis that there would be a deal.
    Parliament has rejected the "deal" and voted against every other option. Should we know just forget this referendum result just beacuse Parliament is so rubbish?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,826
    Scott_P said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dominic Cummings' verdict on our elected representatives:

    "...parliament consists of people who "to a large extent are not particularly bright, are egomaniacs and they want to be on TV".

    https://news.sky.com/story/dominic-cummings-why-johnsons-top-adviser-would-relish-cutting-dreadful-mps-from-brexit-11779494


    Cummings is merely the latest in a long line of geniuses to run things for the Conservatives in 10 Downing Street. First there was Andy Coulson, whose genius took him to prison. Then there was Steve Hilton, whose genius took him to a life of Donald Trump fanboyism on Fox News. Then there was Craig Oliver, whose genius took him to losing the referendum campaign. Then there was Nick Timothy, whose genius took him to tirelessly writing self-exculpating columns for the crime of accidentally detonating the full holy trinity: his career, his prime minister and his country.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/dominic-cummings-brexit-boris-johnson-vote-leave-nigel-farage-a9045766.html
    And they owe it all to Alastair Campbell whose genius took him to being satirised and reviled in equal measure to the extent that his being thrown out of the Labour party was greeted with great joy by many of his own former colleagues.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803

    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
    No deal does not have a mandate. The referendum was on the basis that there would be a deal.
    But No Deal is the default once A50 was triggered if no acceptable agreement was achieved..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Eek/Mr. Stardog, well, quite.

    The Lib Dems (and some Labour people) opposed the deal, and are now claiming no deal doesn't have a mandate, despite having voted for it to occur.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,826

    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
    No deal does not have a mandate. The referendum was on the basis that there would be a deal.
    Rubbish. I don't necessarily want No Deal but the referendum was Leave or Remain. Nothing else.

    Please point me to the box I ticked that said 'Leave but only with a Deal'.

    People were well aware that there was the possibility of leaving without a deal. It is only those who want to reverse the whole process who are rewriting history.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,061

    On GNU:



    But they are. And that is the fundamental problem.

    Indeed. Life isn't run but what people 'should' do, but what they do do.

    You have to remember this is a parliament which has been supreme at saying what it doesn't want but can't agree what it does want. I can easily see the following scenario

    VONC in Johnson - Johnson loses
    VOC in Corbyn - Corbyn loses
    VOC in Clarke/Starmer/Benn etc - also loses

    So Johnson ends up staying by default and we have an election.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
    No deal does not have a mandate. The referendum was on the basis that there would be a deal.
    No deal is like saying there is no god or no flying spaghetti monster. It doesn't need a mandate it is simply the default state in the absence of a deal.

    Parliament has refused repeatedly to pass a deal, that is Parliament's choice. We have a little bit of time left, if the EU and the Government and Parliament can reach an agreement then we can pass a deal. Otherwise no deal is simply where we are.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,689

    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
    No deal does not have a mandate. The referendum was on the basis that there would be a deal.
    Rubbish. I don't necessarily want No Deal but the referendum was Leave or Remain. Nothing else.

    Please point me to the box I ticked that said 'Leave but only with a Deal'.

    People were well aware that there was the possibility of leaving without a deal. It is only those who want to reverse the whole process who are rewriting history.
    99% of people at the time of the referendum weren't thinking about Deal or No Deal, they were just thinking about Remain or Leave.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    AndyJS said:

    nichomar said:

    Malcom Rifkind made exactly the same point about holding an election at the same time as leaving that it would fly in the face of all convention and would not be tolerated. https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-be-leading-uk-into-civil-war-level-constitutional-crisis-11779233

    Just a bunch of sourpuss Remainers not accepting Parliamentary democracy.

    Parliament passed the Fixed Term Parliament Act - the next election is 2022.
    Parliament passed the EU Withdrawal Act - we are leaving with or without a deal.
    Parliament endorsed the 31 October date - that is the date we leave.
    Parliament rejected the deal.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament rejected the deal again.
    Parliament chose not to call an early election in time to change the law.

    Remainers: Boris is rejecting Parliament!
    No deal does not have a mandate. The referendum was on the basis that there would be a deal.
    Rubbish. I don't necessarily want No Deal but the referendum was Leave or Remain. Nothing else.

    Please point me to the box I ticked that said 'Leave but only with a Deal'.

    People were well aware that there was the possibility of leaving without a deal. It is only those who want to reverse the whole process who are rewriting history.
    99% of people at the time of the referendum weren't thinking about Deal or No Deal, they were just thinking about Remain or Leave.
    Precisely.

    If we can get a deal, great. If we can't that's disappointing. Either way we leave.
  • " I don't necessarily want No Deal but the referendum was Leave or Remain. Nothing else.

    Please point me to the box I ticked that said 'Leave but only with a Deal'.

    People were well aware that there was the possibility of leaving without a deal. It is only those who want to reverse the whole process who are rewriting history."

    Why a box? The Vote Leave campaign made it clear over and over again that a deal would be simple.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    edited August 8

    kjh said:

    The EU can do what it likes surely. It can voluntarily stop the clock. As with any agreement either party can vary it, it is just that the other party is not compelled to agree to that variation. It is not as if such a thing is uncommon.

    No it must follow the law and its own constitution. The constitution is clear unless the European Council in agreement with the UK unanimously decides to extend the period then the UK exits automatically on 31 October. The EU can't just "do what it likes".

    The EUs constitution could be varied to change that absolutely. In order to do that there must be a Treaty passed to agree a change which must be passed unanimously by all members including . . . wait for it . . . the United Kingdom.

    Not if the Treaty was agreed after 31st October.

    How can the EU unilaterally voluntarily stop the clock on the UK's exit by passing a Treaty after 31st October?

    Very easily. It can hold-off any practical No Deal implementation and state that as far as it is concerned the clock is stopped until the election is decided. Purdah will do the rest.
    Except as we said yesterday under the treaties that actually create and maintain the EU it cannot do that. They don't get to pick and choose which bits of the treaties they want to ignore unilaterally. Under Article 50, unless they get the agreement of the UK, we cease to be members of the EU on 31st October whether they plan for it or not.

    Article 50 no longer applies after 31st October. The EU27 can absolutely decide to readmit the UK on its current terms following a general election in which No Deal has been rejected by the electorate - and the EU27 can make that clear in advance of the election, having agreed, in principle, a new treaty prior to 31st October and having agreed not to implement No Deal until the election result is known and the new UK government's position is clear.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816
    Mein gott it's like Groundhog Day in here.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Mr. Stardog, I think most MPs would like to vote against no deal but I'm not sure I can see it happening.

    Mr. Thompson, the PM cannot veto what the Commons votes for. He isn't a consul in ancient Rome. If the Commons votes for something then for the monarch to refuse it, except in the most extreme circumstances such as abolishing elections, would be absolutely unacceptable, especially if advised to refuse to pass the approved bill by a man who had lost the vote.

    So the Scottish Militia Bill is on our statute?

    It is extremely rare, but yes the PM retains the right [via Her Majesty] to veto. The Commons can override that veto by replacing the PM.
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