Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
I didn’t say there was only one candidate for the role. However, if that person is not going to be the leader of the opposition, the leader of the opposition will have a big say.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Montgomeryshire - if Glyn Davies stands again I will be very surprised if the Liberal Democrats retake it. He has a very big personal vote.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Which bookies are you tapping up for these, if you don’t mind me asking?
I’m not sure Betfair has resurrected a next PM market yet.
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Oh God the hyperventilation on here would be a sight to behold. PB Tories' limitless capacity for double standards is one of the things that makes this site such an addictive form of entertainment.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Which bookies are you tapping up for these, if you don’t mind me asking?
I’m not sure Betfair has resurrected a next PM market yet.
Betfair has a market (under Next General Election, as before) but it hasn’t got going yet. This was with Ladbrokes.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Hopefully Caroline Lucas as PM would give a big boost to the Greens at the expense of Labour. I hope that the non-racist Lib Dems and Greens will merge to replace the Labour Party.
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Brexit, and the cackhanded way it is being implemented, has ensured that the pounds that they are paid in have decreased in value by ~25% since the day the referendum date was announced (£1=~$1.6 to £1=~$1.2). So they can now buy less from a smaller pool and can travel less with what they have.
In the UK they can buy far more and that is where they do most of their spending outside a fortnight sojourn to the Costas
Must skilled construction workers earn way above average wage. Doubt they'd be slumming it on the Costas. Florida, Canada or Thailand at,the very least. Gambia is popular too, and Seville and Madrid, if it must be Spain.
I have to say I resent the ‘slumming it on the costas’ bit. I live on the Costa Blanca in a very nice seaside town much favored by the better off Spanish (and British) for their second homes. Even Benidorm, out of season, is fun for a few days so you are pushing the stereotype a little far.
A thought in response to Boris' latest threat of having a general election in the immediate aftermath of no deal Brexit: I think this can be avoided by Parliament simply holding its fire on the VONC until early October. This has several benefits:
1) If Boris is able to hold on through the 14 days, he will still face an election, except it will be almost a month after no deal Brexit has happened and getting towards December - much less to his advantage than if the election was held before the consequences of no deal are felt
2) Corbyn is marginally more likely to accept a compromise candidate if the clock is ticking close to zero and there's no possibility of arranging an election before the hard Brexit date
3) Finally, it means that, if Parliament is successful in forming a government of national unity, it will still have a couple of weeks to agree an extension
Any thoughts on the potential downsides to this?
Agree - which may be why Cummings et al are trying to panic the Commons into an early VONC - he may be absolutist about Brexit, but the only thing Johnson is absolutist about is his career.
You think they're trying to panic them into a VONC? It seemed to me the opposite.
The whole point of saying it's too late to force an early election seems to me to be to prevent a VONC. If it's too late to hold an election to prevent Brexit then why bother?
Because its not too late to create a GONU from the current parliament if its clear Johnson is heading for the cliff. That may concentrate a few minds. The "cunning plan" is predicated on Parliament being dissolved before Johnson can be replaced. If however that fails and Parliament replaces him and extends or revokes, all bets are off.
And that replacement PM is....?
This is a battle between the administration and the legislature. The legislature has already made its power play - a new hope. It forced a change at the top of the administration, but couldn't stop No Deal Brexit. Now the administration strikes back.....
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Montgomeryshire - if Glyn Davies stands again I will be very surprised if the Liberal Democrats retake it. He has a very big personal vote.
I see that in fact they have selected a new candidate. Not sure Craig Williams is much less formidable though. He's the friend of a Corbynista friend who thought very highly of him. He held Cardiff North when everyone thought it would be lost in 2015 (admittedly he then lost it in 2017). He could easily build a centrist coalition. And he's from Trallwng so he can play the local card.
I assume that after all the fuss Johnson will reluctantly recognise the overwhelming force of the arguments and acquiesce to holding the election on the traditional Thursday.
October 31st.
Honestly people are just setting themselves up for that one.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Hopefully Caroline Lucas as PM would give a big boost to the Greens at the expense of Labour. I hope that the non-racist Lib Dems and Greens will merge to replace the Labour Party.
@Gabs2 genuine question - I think I now get that you think Corbyn is a racist as you have mentioned it a couple of times (admirable message discipline BTW) - but what do you think of Johnson and his "piccaninies" and "pillar boxes" comments, those seem kind of racist too, in fact more blatantly racist than the mural stuff, but they don't seem to bother you too much. Any particular reason for that? Genuinely curious.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Hopefully Caroline Lucas as PM would give a big boost to the Greens at the expense of Labour. I hope that the non-racist Lib Dems and Greens will merge to replace the Labour Party.
And in that hope, you kill any chance of Labour MPs voting for her.
Really, as batshit crazy goes, PM Lucas is as out there as it gets.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Hopefully Caroline Lucas as PM would give a big boost to the Greens at the expense of Labour. I hope that the non-racist Lib Dems and Greens will merge to replace the Labour Party.
And in that hope, you kill any chance of Labour MPs voting for her.
Really, as batshit crazy goes, PM Lucas is as out there as it gets.
Perhaps a bit of out of the box thinking is needed, a la the England cricket team.
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Don't knock Canvey Island; always had a good community spirit!
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Hopefully Caroline Lucas as PM would give a big boost to the Greens at the expense of Labour. I hope that the non-racist Lib Dems and Greens will merge to replace the Labour Party.
And in that hope, you kill any chance of Labour MPs voting for her.
Really, as batshit crazy goes, PM Lucas is as out there as it gets.
You’re a fervent supporter of PM Johnson who is in the process of trashing the country’s democratic norms. You're not the best judge of batshit crazy.
All this talk of forces no-deal is just reverse psychology IMHO. Boris will soon be presenting a slightly tweaked version of May’s deal and hope that Parliament breathes a sigh of relief and passes it
All this talk of forces no-deal is just reverse psychology IMHO. Boris will soon be presenting a slightly tweaked version of May’s deal and hope that Parliament breathes a sigh of relief and passes it
Possibly. Trying to genuinely turn the Parliamentary choice into a binary one. Whether opponents will ever accept that they don't have a third option is another question though.
And not clear whether going into an election having just retried (and failed) to pass the WA will do other than destroy their main electoral strategy.
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Insofar as you have a point, it reflects the emerging new demographics of our politics. Although in terms of local by-elections LibDems have also won recently in Sunderland, Bridlington, and the arse end of Gloucester.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
I didn’t say there was only one candidate for the role. However, if that person is not going to be the leader of the opposition, the leader of the opposition will have a big say.
With odds boost I got Lucas as next PM for 130/1. Dominic Grieve at 45/1 too, as he is master of the procedures needed for a GNU and has backing from the #Peoplesvote campaign. More plausible than Ken Clarke IMO.
Possibly the most interesting (relatively unexplored) question in all this is whether the DUP are seriously prepared to go down the path of no deal. Do they really believe it won't do other than weaken their position in the UK?
And what is their view of going into an election with no deal happening during its course, that they will have done as much as anyone to bring about.
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Don't knock Canvey Island; always had a good community spirit!
Apparently Paddy Power are offering odds on what will be rationed first after Brexit. Offering 12/1 that food rationing will be officially introduced by the end of 2019.
Possibly the most interesting (relatively unexplored) question in all this is whether the DUP are seriously prepared to go down the path of no deal. Do they really believe it won't do other than weaken their position in the UK?
And what is their view of going into an election with no deal happening during its course, that they will have done as much as anyone to bring about.
The DUP are religious versions of Boris or Corbyn. Dim witted populists and demagogues who owe their positions to accidents of birth and history rather than any merits of their own.
So I think you are overanalysing this. They haven't a clue what they're doing and are about to massively cock up.
Apparently Paddy Power are offering odds on what will be rationed first after Brexit. Offering 12/1 that food rationing will be officially introduced by the end of 2019.
In wanting to turn back the clock, these Brexiters appear to have overshot a little.
Possibly the most interesting (relatively unexplored) question in all this is whether the DUP are seriously prepared to go down the path of no deal. Do they really believe it won't do other than weaken their position in the UK?
And what is their view of going into an election with no deal happening during its course, that they will have done as much as anyone to bring about.
Has there been any Westminster polling in NI? How many of the DUP’s 10 seats are at risk in a snap GE? Could be very significant.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Hopefully Caroline Lucas as PM would give a big boost to the Greens at the expense of Labour. I hope that the non-racist Lib Dems and Greens will merge to replace the Labour Party.
And in that hope, you kill any chance of Labour MPs voting for her.
Really, as batshit crazy goes, PM Lucas is as out there as it gets.
You’re a fervent supporter of PM Johnson who is in the process of trashing the country’s democratic norms. You're not the best judge of batshit crazy.
Fervent? Where do you get that from? He's doing OK as PM with, surprisingly, no howlers so far.
But he gives me a helluva lot more hope for delivering Brexit than Theresa May.
And when people are staking money on Caroline Lucas being next PM, I'm the one with my feet firmly planted on the ground.
Incidentally, without the same fanfare as there was earlier but between the 24th July and the 3rd August Britain again used no coal to generate electricity. Moreover, at no time since April has it been used to generate more than about 0.5GW and then only for brief periods - twelve or so hours at a time (which is a pretty inefficient way of using it, but still).
Of course gas has taken up a lot of this slack, but it still represents a significant shift in power generation.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Hopefully Caroline Lucas as PM would give a big boost to the Greens at the expense of Labour. I hope that the non-racist Lib Dems and Greens will merge to replace the Labour Party.
And in that hope, you kill any chance of Labour MPs voting for her.
Really, as batshit crazy goes, PM Lucas is as out there as it gets.
You’re a fervent supporter of PM Johnson who is in the process of trashing the country’s democratic norms. You're not the best judge of batshit crazy.
Fervent? Where do you get that from? He's doing OK as PM with, surprisingly, no howlers so far.
But he gives me a helluva lot more hope for delivering Brexit than Theresa May.
And when people are staking money on Caroline Lucas being next PM, I'm the one with my feet firmly planted on the ground.
I'm betting at 100/1. Given you have been on this site donkeys' years, I'd have thought you understood the idea of odds by now.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
Which bookies are you tapping up for these, if you don’t mind me asking?
I’m not sure Betfair has resurrected a next PM market yet.
Betfair has a market (under Next General Election, as before) but it hasn’t got going yet. This was with Ladbrokes.
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
And - unlike Labour - LibDems weren't dumb enough to vote for A50 and start the clock ticking without any plan
As we all know from the Ed Miliband era, we shouldn't get too carried away by these.
At the same time, these results, plus the Euros, plus the opinion polls, plus the two Westminster by-elections do suggest that voter ID has become very fluid. The breakdown is especially noticeable in those areas where it has always been very strong e.g. Ystradgynlais and the Cotswolds. That might lead to some big shocks on election night or even a full political realignment.
I can't help but feel even though the Conservatives thoroughly deserve and will probably get a punishment beating such a scenario is more dangerous for Labour. To quote Arthur Balfour, who led the Tories to their worst ever defeat before blazing a trail back to government for them nine years later, reaction always survives and the Faragistas are hardly dangerous rivals. But Labour, who have consciously chosen to be the party of an old-fashioned and largely discredited dogma, really face being outflanked by the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Nationalists on the left.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Mr. NorthWales, hope both health problems come to a close with full recoveries.
Thank you so much.
Fortunately with the right treatment one of the issues should improve over the next six months, but the other involves dementia and sadly can only go one way
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
I hope the health issues of your family members resolve satisfactorily. If I were on the high seas, I would take a short wave radio.
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.
I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Will this points system be run as efficiently as Universal Credit?
Universal Credit ensuring work pays so you no longer lose all your benefits by doing some part time work over 16 hours a week
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
I hope the health issues of your family members resolve satisfactorily. If I were on the high seas, I would take a short wave radio.
Thank you and for your suggestion. However, just being away from it all might be very good therapy
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Possibly the most interesting (relatively unexplored) question in all this is whether the DUP are seriously prepared to go down the path of no deal. Do they really believe it won't do other than weaken their position in the UK?
And what is their view of going into an election with no deal happening during its course, that they will have done as much as anyone to bring about.
The DUP will not agree to no deal. They won't agree to anything; their purpose is to oppose things not to support them. With luck they will run out of road either by being unable to prevent no deal, or others having the sense to support a version of TM's deal.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
And of course, if opponents don't see it they aren't in a position to rebuff it.
As the main parties use the same techniques (used directly and indirectly by third-party supporters) they will not be in any rush to regulate this area.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Excellent post, why they are not challenged more in the media on this is beyond me
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and yours. Take care of yourselves.
Yep, I was saying this yesterday. If the courts give the go-ahead to the Cummings No Deal plan, the EU could render it pointless by saying if the electorate rejects No Deal and the new UK government still wishes to retain EU membership on the terms previously enjoyed those would remain available.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Parties rarely get what they deserve. It's not inconceivable they could get rewarded by default, depending on how BXP voters react to whatever may happen if Boris cannot deliver.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Excellent post, why they are not challenged more in the media on this is beyond me
People are waiting to see how the story ends before deciding where to direct the recriminations.
Mr Corbyn is wanting it all ways. If there is a majority for a VONC then there is a majority against the government's present position. A VONC will cause us to risk crashing out with no deal (FTPA + careful strategy from No 10). So don't. Use that same majority to take control of the business of the commons - the supreme authority under the crown in this country - and legislate what you actually want.
Johnson's foes would do this if they had a majority for something. They don't. It's all hot air.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and yours. Take care of yourselves.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Parties rarely get what they deserve. It's not inconceivable they could get rewarded by default, depending on how BXP voters react to whatever may happen if Boris cannot deliver.
On yesterday's Yougov Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare since 1918 and its lowest number of seats since 1935 which would be poetic justice for voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and playing games with the Union
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear this family news Big_G. Take care.
Thank you. It is especially hard as we are of the same generation and it reminds us of the time we had to do the same to my Father in Law years ago
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear that and best wishes to your family BigG
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear that and best wishes to your family BigG
Mr Corbyn is wanting it all ways. If there is a majority for a VONC then there is a majority against the government's present position. A VONC will cause us to risk crashing out with no deal (FTPA + careful strategy from No 10). So don't. Use that same majority to take control of the business of the commons - the supreme authority under the crown in this country - and legislate what you actually want.
Johnson's foes would do this if they had a majority for something. They don't. It's all hot air.
It's a bit early to reach that conclusion. Parliament has sat for exactly one day under Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
It would be highly amusing if Parliament did what you said, leaving Boris Johnson stranded in office as the real business took place underneath him and out of his control. In practice, however, it would be a lot easier to achieve with control of executive powers.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Parties rarely get what they deserve. It's not inconceivable they could get rewarded by default, depending on how BXP voters react to whatever may happen if Boris cannot deliver.
Well, Labour are on course to help deliver a no-deal Brexit...
Mr Corbyn is wanting it all ways. If there is a majority for a VONC then there is a majority against the government's present position. A VONC will cause us to risk crashing out with no deal (FTPA + careful strategy from No 10). So don't. Use that same majority to take control of the business of the commons - the supreme authority under the crown in this country - and legislate what you actually want.
Johnson's foes would do this if they had a majority for something. They don't. It's all hot air.
I think there are actually several subtly different coalitions for different ways of opposing the Great Patriotic Flounce:
1) Parliamentary methods to constrain Boris will now get lots of Tories, but may lose quite a few Labour leavers, as we saw last time it was tried 2) A vote to install a grandee caretaker may lose the same Labour leavers and then some, even if the front bench ultimately supports it 3) A vote to install Corbyn as caretaker probably has the support of nearly all Labour MPs, since it's a You Had One Job issue for an MP. But when it comes to the crunch we don't really know if it would get the LibDems, and how many Tories if any. 4) The actual VONC is a whole nother thing, loosely connected to the prospects for (1) to (3).
I think it's entirely possible that any, all or none of those could make a majority.
Telegraph floating 1st November as Johnson's target GE date.
Still available on BF at 2.5
What makes me think this is spin, is that to all intents and purposes, an election on October 31st would have the same consequences. And October 31st is a Thursday.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear this family news Big_G. Take care.
Thank you. It is especially hard as we are of the same generation and it reminds us of the time we had to do the same to my Father in Law years ago
It is a terrible disease, and so little that can be done. I have, unfortunately, some family experience of the effects of it.
Telegraph floating 1st November as Johnson's target GE date.
Still available on BF at 2.5
What makes me think this is spin, is that to all intents and purposes, an election on October 31st would have the same consequences. And October 31st is a Thursday.
An election not on a Thursday would be unthinkable.
Possibly the most interesting (relatively unexplored) question in all this is whether the DUP are seriously prepared to go down the path of no deal. Do they really believe it won't do other than weaken their position in the UK?
And what is their view of going into an election with no deal happening during its course, that they will have done as much as anyone to bring about.
Has there been any Westminster polling in NI? How many of the DUP’s 10 seats are at risk in a snap GE? Could be very significant.
Of DUP seats that could be lost on a 5% or lower swing, Sinn Fein would take Belfast North on a 2% swing, the SDLP would take Belfast South on a 2% swing (and the Alliance on a 7% swing) and the UUP would take South Antrim on a 3% swing
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Parties rarely get what they deserve. It's not inconceivable they could get rewarded by default, depending on how BXP voters react to whatever may happen if Boris cannot deliver.
On yesterday's Yougov Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare since 1918 and its lowest number of seats since 1935 which would be poetic justice for voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and playing games with the Union
It may be necessary to have a defeat of this scale to wake members up to the fools they have put into the leadership.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear this family news Big_G. Take care.
Thank you. It is especially hard as we are of the same generation and it reminds us of the time we had to do the same to my Father in Law years ago
It is a terrible disease, and so little that can be done. I have, unfortunately, some family experience of the effects of it.
For those of us with first hand experience it is soul destroying as our loved ones become unrecognisable and indeed often they do not recognise us.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Parties rarely get what they deserve. It's not inconceivable they could get rewarded by default, depending on how BXP voters react to whatever may happen if Boris cannot deliver.
On yesterday's Yougov Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare since 1918 and its lowest number of seats since 1935 which would be poetic justice for voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and playing games with the Union
It may be necessary to have a defeat of this scale to wake members up to the fools they have put into the leadership.
Perhaps but if Thornberry loses her seat to the LDs as the poll suggests is possible then the leading non Corbynite candidate for the Labour leadership would also be gone, if Corbynism retains its grip on Labour the LDs could then replace Labour as the main party of the centre left (the LDs being just 1% behind Labour with Yougov yesterday too)
Comments
https://twitter.com/paullewismoney/status/1159707369842118656?s=21
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
https://twitter.com/huffpostukpol/status/1159709668249407488?s=21
I’m not sure Betfair has resurrected a next PM market yet.
This is a battle between the administration and the legislature. The legislature has already made its power play - a new hope. It forced a change at the top of the administration, but couldn't stop No Deal Brexit. Now the administration strikes back.....
It’s a Saturday!
October 31st.
Honestly people are just setting themselves up for that one.
Really, as batshit crazy goes, PM Lucas is as out there as it gets.
2 PMs. One for Brexit, one for everything else.
And not clear whether going into an election having just retried (and failed) to pass the WA will do other than destroy their main electoral strategy.
And what is their view of going into an election with no deal happening during its course, that they will have done as much as anyone to bring about.
It's all a shithole...
Offering 12/1 that food rationing will be officially introduced by the end of 2019.
So I think you are overanalysing this. They haven't a clue what they're doing and are about to massively cock up.
But he gives me a helluva lot more hope for delivering Brexit than Theresa May.
And when people are staking money on Caroline Lucas being next PM, I'm the one with my feet firmly planted on the ground.
Of course gas has taken up a lot of this slack, but it still represents a significant shift in power generation.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1159569596199972874
....whilst most go "Seriously, you want my fucking vote? For that?"
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
https://twitter.com/catherine_mayer/status/1159718672707018752
-34%
-24%
-18%
-17%
-17%
-16%
-15%
-15%
-14%
-14%
-13%
-11%
-11%
-10%
-8%
-8%
-8%
-8%
-7%
-7%
-4%
-4%
-3%
-3%
-3%
-3%
+1%
+2%
+2%
+4%
+6%
h/t @blairmcdougall
At the same time, these results, plus the Euros, plus the opinion polls, plus the two Westminster by-elections do suggest that voter ID has become very fluid. The breakdown is especially noticeable in those areas where it has always been very strong e.g. Ystradgynlais and the Cotswolds. That might lead to some big shocks on election night or even a full political realignment.
I can't help but feel even though the Conservatives thoroughly deserve and will probably get a punishment beating such a scenario is more dangerous for Labour. To quote Arthur Balfour, who led the Tories to their worst ever defeat before blazing a trail back to government for them nine years later, reaction always survives and the Faragistas are hardly dangerous rivals. But Labour, who have consciously chosen to be the party of an old-fashioned and largely discredited dogma, really face being outflanked by the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Nationalists on the left.
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Fortunately with the right treatment one of the issues should improve over the next six months, but the other involves dementia and sadly can only go one way
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Johnson's foes would do this if they had a majority for something. They don't. It's all hot air.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49287219
Still available on BF at 2.5
It would be highly amusing if Parliament did what you said, leaving Boris Johnson stranded in office as the real business took place underneath him and out of his control. In practice, however, it would be a lot easier to achieve with control of executive powers.
1) Parliamentary methods to constrain Boris will now get lots of Tories, but may lose quite a few Labour leavers, as we saw last time it was tried
2) A vote to install a grandee caretaker may lose the same Labour leavers and then some, even if the front bench ultimately supports it
3) A vote to install Corbyn as caretaker probably has the support of nearly all Labour MPs, since it's a You Had One Job issue for an MP. But when it comes to the crunch we don't really know if it would get the LibDems, and how many Tories if any.
4) The actual VONC is a whole nother thing, loosely connected to the prospects for (1) to (3).
I think it's entirely possible that any, all or none of those could make a majority.