Possibly the most interesting (relatively unexplored) question in all this is whether the DUP are seriously prepared to go down the path of no deal. Do they really believe it won't do other than weaken their position in the UK?
And what is their view of going into an election with no deal happening during its course, that they will have done as much as anyone to bring about.
Has there been any Westminster polling in NI? How many of the DUP’s 10 seats are at risk in a snap GE? Could be very significant.
Of DUP seats that could be lost on a 5% or lower swing, Sinn Fein would take Belfast North on a 2% swing, the SDLP would take Belfast South on a 2% swing (and the Alliance on a 7% swing) and the UUP would take South Antrim on a 3% swing
The demographic element of the change in population base, translated simplistically into unionist and nationalist voters, is equivalent to a swing of about 0.3% since the last GE.
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear this family news Big_G. Take care.
Thank you. It is especially hard as we are of the same generation and it reminds us of the time we had to do the same to my Father in Law years ago
It is a terrible disease, and so little that can be done. I have, unfortunately, some family experience of the effects of it.
For those of us with first hand experience it is soul destroying as our loved ones become unrecognisable and indeed often they do not recognise us.
Best wishes to you and your family Big_G.
Please do keep posting on here when you can. Even though we are some way apart politically, I always enjoy your posts. One of the best things about PB is interacting with virtual friends who have different viewpoints.
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.
Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.
If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.
But what he says he is going to do is really really stupid.
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.
Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.
If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.
But what he says he is going to do is really really stupid.
Although of course we all knew that would happen even before the dumb bastard was elected.
Perhaps but if Thornberry loses her seat to the LDs as the poll suggests is possible then the leading non Corbynite candidate for the Labour leadership would also be gone, if Corbynism retains its grip on Labour the LDs could then replace Labour as the main party of the centre left (the LDs being just 1% behind Labour with Yougov yesterday too)
At ther moment the volatility of polls is such as to make this kind of prediction absurd. It's easy to talk about YouGov especially when it gives the party you support a big lead but only a small majority but there's little mention of the last ComRes which had a Labour lead.
Would you agree the last ComRes poll was much less favourable for the Conservatives and has been an interesting trajectory since it was the initial ComRes polling in mid June which supporters of Johnson seized on - it was a majority of 140 back then as I recall?
The other polling suggests the window of opportunity is around or just after 31/10 for the Conservatives having delivered a No Deal Brexit. All other scenarios are much less favourable.
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.
Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.
If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.
But what he says he is going to do is really really stupid.
Although of course we all knew that would happen even before the dumb bastard was elected.
In Boris we have a Conservative PM who poses an existential threat to the UK. How has it come to this?
Please do keep posting on here when you can. Even though we are some way apart politically, I always enjoy your posts. One of the best things about PB is interacting with virtual friends who have different viewpoints.
I personally know several EU27 nationals who have left for other EU27 countries due to Brexit (I'm in a research intensive - we hardly have any UG teaching - department in Russell Group university).
Combinations of not feeling very welcome, worries about their position post-Brexit (despite the assurances offered) and also feeling that the UK won't be 'the place to be' in years to come due to post-Brexit general decline (the last paraphrasing two separate individuals). Some also heavily involved in EU projects and the uncertainty means that their current collaborators in EU27 can't commit to whether they'd be able to work with them in future if they remained in UK.
I'm UK funded (NHS grant) and have lots of family nearby - most of my wife's family - otherwise I'd be looking around too. I'm British, as is my wife, although she worked in the Netherlands for two years before we met.
Perhaps but if Thornberry loses her seat to the LDs as the poll suggests is possible then the leading non Corbynite candidate for the Labour leadership would also be gone, if Corbynism retains its grip on Labour the LDs could then replace Labour as the main party of the centre left (the LDs being just 1% behind Labour with Yougov yesterday too)
At ther moment the volatility of polls is such as to make this kind of prediction absurd. It's easy to talk about YouGov especially when it gives the party you support a big lead but only a small majority but there's little mention of the last ComRes which had a Labour lead.
Would you agree the last ComRes poll was much less favourable for the Conservatives and has been an interesting trajectory since it was the initial ComRes polling in mid June which supporters of Johnson seized on - it was a majority of 140 back then as I recall?
The other polling suggests the window of opportunity is around or just after 31/10 for the Conservatives having delivered a No Deal Brexit. All other scenarios are much less favourable.
And surely anyone who thinks this foolhardy approach to Brexit is attractive is already on board, and both the Tory and Bozo's ratings will fall as the road gets ever more bumpy.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear this family news Big_G. Take care.
Thank you. It is especially hard as we are of the same generation and it reminds us of the time we had to do the same to my Father in Law years ago
It is a terrible disease, and so little that can be done. I have, unfortunately, some family experience of the effects of it.
For those of us with first hand experience it is soul destroying as our loved ones become unrecognisable and indeed often they do not recognise us.
Yes, Big G. I understand. My mother died of it. It is much harder on the loved ones than the person who has the dementia, though you are all victims.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
All good wishes, BigG. Absolutely take care of yourselves as the priority. You're very welcome here any time if we're a pleasant distraction from the pressing issues!
The Guardian has always been pro independence, George Monbiot was writing pro Indy articles even in 2014 and Simon Jenkins has never been a strong Unionist
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.
Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . .
Whether something in a trap doesn't just depend on whether you are really going to walk into it.
It depends on what happens after you do.
Unfortunately, Johnson is going to try to take us all along with him.
Perhaps but if Thornberry loses her seat to the LDs as the poll suggests is possible then the leading non Corbynite candidate for the Labour leadership would also be gone, if Corbynism retains its grip on Labour the LDs could then replace Labour as the main party of the centre left (the LDs being just 1% behind Labour with Yougov yesterday too)
At ther moment the volatility of polls is such as to make this kind of prediction absurd. It's easy to talk about YouGov especially when it gives the party you support a big lead but only a small majority but there's little mention of the last ComRes which had a Labour lead.
Would you agree the last ComRes poll was much less favourable for the Conservatives and has been an interesting trajectory since it was the initial ComRes polling in mid June which supporters of Johnson seized on - it was a majority of 140 back then as I recall?
The other polling suggests the window of opportunity is around or just after 31/10 for the Conservatives having delivered a No Deal Brexit. All other scenarios are much less favourable.
Yougov had the LDs ahead of Labour in the European Parliament elections, Comres had Labour ahead of the LDs, Yougov was correct and Comres was wrong.
Even Comres has shown Boris gets a Tory majority if he goes for No Deal
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
All good wishes, BigG. Absolutely take care of yourselves as the priority. You're very welcome here any time if we're a pleasant distraction from the pressing issues!
Thanks Nick and I do intend contributing as it is a distraction, but this week has been difficult not only with the dementia issue but another rather long term issue with another member of our family
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Insofar as you have a point, it reflects the emerging new demographics of our politics. Although in terms of local by-elections LibDems have also won recently in Sunderland, Bridlington, and the arse end of Gloucester.
It didn't seem that way at the time, but it looks like Paddy Ashdown's strategy of focusing on winning in a few select areas hasn't really helped the Lib Dems much at all. The upside to losing everywhere is that you are the only choice when both the main parties are failing. Suddenly you can win everywhere.
Perhaps we should have a general election every six months or so...
Haha, yes indeed... or maybe every 12 months, to fulfill the last unmet Chartist reform?
Back to today'snews though: surely making billions of pounds available for public services, whilst welcome in its own right, is going to have a negligible effect on a GE within the next 12 months as it will take time for any extra spending to feed through into service improvements?
Mr. Recidivist, possibly. The Lib Dems do look like they have enormous potential at the next election but they shouldn't just wait for it to happen. Proactivity increases the chances and scale of their possible success (I'd be working to try and get pro-EU Conservatives and non-Corbynite Labour MPs to defect).
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
not threatening, but not acceptable to Corbyn I suppose
As we all know from the Ed Miliband era, we shouldn't get too carried away by these.
At the same time, these results, plus the Euros, plus the opinion polls, plus the two Westminster by-elections do suggest that voter ID has become very fluid. The breakdown is especially noticeable in those areas where it has always been very strong e.g. Ystradgynlais and the Cotswolds. That might lead to some big shocks on election night or even a full political realignment.
I can't help but feel even though the Conservatives thoroughly deserve and will probably get a punishment beating such a scenario is more dangerous for Labour. To quote Arthur Balfour, who led the Tories to their worst ever defeat before blazing a trail back to government for them nine years later, reaction always survives and the Faragistas are hardly dangerous rivals. But Labour, who have consciously chosen to be the party of an old-fashioned and largely discredited dogma, really face being outflanked by the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Nationalists on the left.
Unless Corbyn goes, and very quickly (which will not happen) Labour are finished as a party of potential government. The fact that their lost votes will be divided up amongst LDs, Greens and nationalist parties is fantastic news for Mr Johnson and the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party in this instance may look somewhat different to how it did under Mr Cameron, but the name and a perhaps more extreme ideology will live on.
As a result of Corbyn's utter incompetence we will be consigned to decades of Mr Johnson and his like. Even if Brexit starts life as a fiasco Johnson will have the time to polish that particular turd to shiny acceptability. Besides, 'No Deal Brexit', if it doesn't work out can always be pinned on Corbyn's intransigence over the awful WA and its failure to pass through the HoC. PB Tories you will note, are this morning treading that particular path suggesting Labour uniquely deserve political oblivion for not supporting Mrs May's deal, something I for one think will come to pass.
Please do keep posting on here when you can. Even though we are some way apart politically, I always enjoy your posts. One of the best things about PB is interacting with virtual friends who have different viewpoints.
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Don't knock Canvey Island; always had a good community spirit!
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear this family news Big_G. Take care.
Thank you. It is especially hard as we are of the same generation and it reminds us of the time we had to do the same to my Father in Law years ago
It is a terrible disease, and so little that can be done. I have, unfortunately, some family experience of the effects of it.
For those of us with first hand experience it is soul destroying as our loved ones become unrecognisable and indeed often they do not recognise us.
Yes, Big G. I understand. My mother died of it. It is much harder on the loved ones than the person who has the dementia, though you are all victims.
Please accept my sympathy and commiserations.
Visiting a parent who no longer recognises you is a hard thing. It's the overturning of a relationship you've been conditioned to since birth.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
......................
J
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear this family news Big_G. Take care.
Thank you. It is especially hard as we are of the same generation and it reminds us of the time we had to do the same to my Father in Law years ago
It is a terrible disease, and so little that can be done. I have, unfortunately, some family experience of the effects of it.
For those of us with first hand experience it is soul destroying as our loved ones become unrecognisable and indeed often they do not recognise us.
Yes, Big G. I understand. My mother died of it. It is much harder on the loved ones than the person who has the dementia, though you are all victims.
Please accept my sympathy and commisserations.
I also agree with that. I had no idea prior to my mother getting vascular dementia. Some very distressing events in the earlier stages and my mother got quite angry with what she was experiencing not being logical. I had her screaming down the phone to me one day asking me why I hadn't told her that her mother was a man and we had to prepare the children for a repeat event (she was seeing my father as her mother).
It is sad to say but it got easier as she deteriorated and she became clueless as to what was going on, but it also meant by that time she had to go into a home.
Thank you so much and we both have had first hand experience with it.
It is now my son in law who is facing the emotional roller coaster. As you rightly say the loved one is not cognizant of the dementia and it is the loved ones who suffer. When we had my Father in Law here in his last days I commented to the social workers how much I appreciated their care of my Father in Law and they said more than anything they were monitoring my family as it can have devastating family consequences. (at the time my 3 grown up children were all still at home)
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
By being regarded as a competent PM. Something most of the electorate are never going to think of Corbyn.
Thank you so much and we both have had first hand experience with it.
It is now my son in law who is facing the emotional roller coaster. As you rightly say the loved one is not cognizant of the dementia and it is the loved ones who suffer. When we had my Father in Law here in his last days I commented to the social workers how much I appreciated their care of my Father in Law and they said more than anything they were monitoring my family as it can have devastating family consequences. (at the time my 3 grown up children were all still at home)
All the best Big G to you and your family during this difficult time.
Thank you so much and we both have had first hand experience with it.
It is now my son in law who is facing the emotional roller coaster. As you rightly say the loved one is not cognizant of the dementia and it is the loved ones who suffer. When we had my Father in Law here in his last days I commented to the social workers how much I appreciated their care of my Father in Law and they said more than anything they were monitoring my family as it can have devastating family consequences. (at the time my 3 grown up children were all still at home)
All the best Big G to you and your family during this difficult time.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Parties rarely get what they deserve. It's not inconceivable they could get rewarded by default, depending on how BXP voters react to whatever may happen if Boris cannot deliver.
On yesterday's Yougov Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare since 1918 and its lowest number of seats since 1935 which would be poetic justice for voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and playing games with the Union
It may be necessary to have a defeat of this scale to wake members up to the fools they have put into the leadership.
Perhaps but if Thornberry loses her seat to the LDs as the poll suggests is possible then the leading non Corbynite candidate for the Labour leadership would also be gone, if Corbynism retains its grip on Labour the LDs could then replace Labour as the main party of the centre left (the LDs being just 1% behind Labour with Yougov yesterday too)
It could happen. LibDems have an amazing opportunity in next few months/years to become a major party. SDP in Germany a shadow of its former self. Likewise France.
As we all know from the Ed Miliband era, we shouldn't get too carried away by these.
At the same time, these results, plus the Euros, plus the opinion polls, plus the two Westminster by-elections do suggest that voter ID has become very fluid. The breakdown is especially noticeable in those areas where it has always been very strong e.g. Ystradgynlais and the Cotswolds. That might lead to some big shocks on election night or even a full political realignment.
I can't help but feel even though the Conservatives thoroughly deserve and will probably get a punishment beating such a scenario is more dangerous for Labour. To quote Arthur Balfour, who led the Tories to their worst ever defeat before blazing a trail back to government for them nine years later, reaction always survives and the Faragistas are hardly dangerous rivals. But Labour, who have consciously chosen to be the party of an old-fashioned and largely discredited dogma, really face being outflanked by the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Nationalists on the left.
Unless Corbyn goes, and very quickly (which will not happen) Labour are finished as a party of potential government. The fact that their lost votes will be divided up amongst LDs, Greens and nationalist parties is fantastic news for Mr Johnson and the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party in this instance may look somewhat different to how it did under Mr Cameron, but the name and a perhaps more extreme ideology will live on.
As a result of Corbyn's utter incompetence we will be consigned to decades of Mr Johnson and his like. Even if Brexit starts life as a fiasco Johnson will have the time to polish that particular turd to shiny acceptability. Besides, 'No Deal Brexit', if it doesn't work out can always be pinned on Corbyn's intransigence over the awful WA and its failure to pass through the HoC. PB Tories you will note, are this morning treading that particular path suggesting Labour uniquely deserve political oblivion for not supporting Mrs May's deal, something I for one think will come to pass.
Actually I suggested that, and I'm not a Tory although I did vote for them in 2017 and 2010.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
not threatening, but not acceptable to Corbyn I suppose
I would have thought Ken Clarke was the obvious choice. Caroline Lucas or Vince would give a bounce to the Greens or LDs. Ken will not give a bounce to anyone.
If Labour screw any opportunity up by being stubborn they are mad. It is not as if Corbyn as PM can get the support to get anything other than stopping us crashing out through anyway so what is the point in being PM then (other than saying I was PM ones!)
The Guardian has always been pro independence, George Monbiot was writing pro Indy articles even in 2014 and Simon Jenkins has never been a strong Unionist
Rubbish.
'The Guardian view on the Scottish referendum: Britain deserves another chance'
Lib Dems take Newnham and Claines, a week after taking Brecon and Radnorshire.
The obvious conclusion is that the new Lib Dem heartland is Nice Places. So at the next GE, we can expect the Conservatives to pile up votes in Canvey Island and Basildon and Labour to keep Barnsley. Meanwhile the Lib Dems sweep the Cotswolds, regain Berwick and Montgomeryshire, and take the South-West except for Camborne and Plymouth, which are decidedly not Nice Places.
It should be a more reliable predictor than Electoral Calculus’ UNS, at any rate.
Insofar as you have a point, it reflects the emerging new demographics of our politics. Although in terms of local by-elections LibDems have also won recently in Sunderland, Bridlington, and the arse end of Gloucester.
It didn't seem that way at the time, but it looks like Paddy Ashdown's strategy of focusing on winning in a few select areas hasn't really helped the Lib Dems much at all. The upside to losing everywhere is that you are the only choice when both the main parties are failing. Suddenly you can win everywhere.
Fighting limited numbers of by elections is very different to a FPTP all out election where you have to target limited resources, people and money, on a limited number of seats. If the polls were to put the LDs on 35% then anything could happen but at 21% you can only realistically tackle x (not willing to speculate) seats
I would just like to say how fundamentally decent posters on PB are as so many of you from across the political divide have been so kind in expressing your thoughts as my family battle with two health issues, and of course on the day my son in laws mother has to leave the family home and go into dementia care
It is a pity that Brexit has not created the same kindness and thought
The Guardian has always been pro independence, George Monbiot was writing pro Indy articles even in 2014 and Simon Jenkins has never been a strong Unionist
Rubbish.
'The Guardian view on the Scottish referendum: Britain deserves another chance'
You and I don see eye to eye on much TUD, but I certainly agree that Jenkins and the ill-informed and usually deranged Moonbat can't be considered representative of the Grauniad's overall line on just about anything.
Perhaps but if Thornberry loses her seat to the LDs as the poll suggests is possible then the leading non Corbynite candidate for the Labour leadership would also be gone, if Corbynism retains its grip on Labour the LDs could then replace Labour as the main party of the centre left (the LDs being just 1% behind Labour with Yougov yesterday too)
At ther moment the volatility of polls is such as to make this kind of prediction absurd. It's easy to talk about YouGov especially when it gives the party you support a big lead but only a small majority but there's little mention of the last ComRes which had a Labour lead.
Would you agree the last ComRes poll was much less favourable for the Conservatives and has been an interesting trajectory since it was the initial ComRes polling in mid June which supporters of Johnson seized on - it was a majority of 140 back then as I recall?
The other polling suggests the window of opportunity is around or just after 31/10 for the Conservatives having delivered a No Deal Brexit. All other scenarios are much less favourable.
It is nothing to do with it being "easy".
Would you agree that there should be concerns at the practice of ComRes (and others) of taking at face value the responses in 2019 of the question asking who the respondent voted for in 2017? I take it you are familiar with the study from YouGov which showed that people on its panel who said they voted Labour after the 2017 election often failed to admit the fact when asked the same question in 2019. That is a major problem when political allegiances have shifted so markedly in a period of just 2 years.
The two pollsters who are least vulnerable to the problem of false recall are Ipsos MORI (who don't weight by past vote at all) and YouGov (who weight based on recall as disclosed in 2017 not 2019). Those were the two most accurate pollsters at the 2019 Euros. As a consequence I have more confidence in their polling than that of others.
It is astonishing that Labour only got 2.2% in the Claines vote
Astonishingly high level of tactical voting. Really bad news for the Conservatives.
That was my take on it below. Labour's stock has fallen but not to that extent. It's clear the contest was seen as a Tory v LibDem one, and Labour remainers and leavers both voted tactically accordingly.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes G, hope your family health issues are resolved quickly.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes G, hope your family health issues are resolved quickly.
Thank you Malc. Indeed one of them should with the correct medical treatment over the next six months but sadly the other involving my son in laws Mother dementia can only go one way
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
not threatening, but not acceptable to Corbyn I suppose
I would have thought Ken Clarke was the obvious choice. Caroline Lucas or Vince would give a bounce to the Greens or LDs. Ken will not give a bounce to anyone.
If Labour screw any opportunity up by being stubborn they are mad. It is not as if Corbyn as PM can get the support to get anything other than stopping us crashing out through anyway so what is the point in being PM then (other than saying I was PM ones!)
It all depends on:
Who can call a VONC What they want from it When doing so gives them what they want.
If it is Corbyn and he wants to avoid 'an undemocratic' (to use his words today) exit during an election, he can call a VONC after parliament sorts out one of revocation, extending, agreement or no deal by 31st October.
There are very few upsides to Corbyn and Labour in a quick VONC. Let the Conservatives own the chaos, opprobrium, internal splits and the like, and call a VONC when they are at rock bottom. That is not now, it is December / January at a guess.
Perhaps we should have a general election every six months or so...
Haha, yes indeed... or maybe every 12 months, to fulfill the last unmet Chartist reform?
Back to today'snews though: surely making billions of pounds available for public services, whilst welcome in its own right, is going to have a negligible effect on a GE within the next 12 months as it will take time for any extra spending to feed through into service improvements?
The answer is probably that most of it isn’t new money.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
not threatening, but not acceptable to Corbyn I suppose
I would have thought Ken Clarke was the obvious choice. Caroline Lucas or Vince would give a bounce to the Greens or LDs. Ken will not give a bounce to anyone.
If Labour screw any opportunity up by being stubborn they are mad. It is not as if Corbyn as PM can get the support to get anything other than stopping us crashing out through anyway so what is the point in being PM then (other than saying I was PM ones!)
It all depends on:
Who can call a VONC What they want from it When doing so gives them what they want.
If it is Corbyn and he wants to avoid 'an undemocratic' (to use his words today) exit during an election, he can call a VONC after parliament sorts out one of revocation, extending, agreement or no deal by 31st October.
There are very few upsides to Corbyn and Labour in a quick VONC. Let the Conservatives own the chaos, opprobrium, internal splits and the like, and call a VONC when they are at rock bottom. That is not now, it is December / January at a guess.
If Corbyn let's no deal happen he will reap the whirlwind
Mr Corbyn is wanting it all ways. If there is a majority for a VONC then there is a majority against the government's present position. A VONC will cause us to risk crashing out with no deal (FTPA + careful strategy from No 10). So don't. Use that same majority to take control of the business of the commons - the supreme authority under the crown in this country - and legislate what you actually want.
Johnson's foes would do this if they had a majority for something. They don't. It's all hot air.
It's a bit early to reach that conclusion. Parliament has sat for exactly one day under Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
It would be highly amusing if Parliament did what you said, leaving Boris Johnson stranded in office as the real business took place underneath him and out of his control. In practice, however, it would be a lot easier to achieve with control of executive powers.
True, but Brexit is now three years old so everyone has form by now. If Johnson's foes have a majority for something, I must say they are keeping their secret safe. Perhaps the best conclusion would be for TMs deal + fig leaf - which after all achieves a good deal of Brexit's points came back to the house, either from a house that has taken control, or via Boris's team, and then see if it could get through. At this point of all the options it's the least divisive, and has the additional advantage of encouraging all the people of Ireland to grow up a bit politically.
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
not threatening, but not acceptable to Corbyn I suppose
I would have thought Ken Clarke was the obvious choice. Caroline Lucas or Vince would give a bounce to the Greens or LDs. Ken will not give a bounce to anyone.
If Labour screw any opportunity up by being stubborn they are mad. It is not as if Corbyn as PM can get the support to get anything other than stopping us crashing out through anyway so what is the point in being PM then (other than saying I was PM ones!)
It all depends on:
Who can call a VONC What they want from it When doing so gives them what they want.
If it is Corbyn and he wants to avoid 'an undemocratic' (to use his words today) exit during an election, he can call a VONC after parliament sorts out one of revocation, extending, agreement or no deal by 31st October.
There are very few upsides to Corbyn and Labour in a quick VONC. Let the Conservatives own the chaos, opprobrium, internal splits and the like, and call a VONC when they are at rock bottom. That is not now, it is December / January at a guess.
If Corbyn let's no deal happen he will reap the whirlwind
Mr Corbyn is wanting it all ways. If there is a majority for a VONC then there is a majority against the government's present position. A VONC will cause us to risk crashing out with no deal (FTPA + careful strategy from No 10). So don't. Use that same majority to take control of the business of the commons - the supreme authority under the crown in this country - and legislate what you actually want.
Johnson's foes would do this if they had a majority for something. They don't. It's all hot air.
I think there are actually several subtly different coalitions for different ways of opposing the Great Patriotic Flounce:
1) Parliamentary methods to constrain Boris will now get lots of Tories, but may lose quite a few Labour leavers, as we saw last time it was tried 2) A vote to install a grandee caretaker may lose the same Labour leavers and then some, even if the front bench ultimately supports it 3) A vote to install Corbyn as caretaker probably has the support of nearly all Labour MPs, since it's a You Had One Job issue for an MP. But when it comes to the crunch we don't really know if it would get the LibDems, and how many Tories if any. 4) The actual VONC is a whole nother thing, loosely connected to the prospects for (1) to (3).
I think it's entirely possible that any, all or none of those could make a majority.
Interesting, but nothing here on what Boris's foes want instead.
Snippet from "the view from Ireland" tweet mentioned last night... No wonder the Government won't come clean about why there is no negotiation happening, and retaining its public stance of "it's all about the backstop".
It was always obvious to anyone paying close attention that the backstop was only an excuse, because none of its opponents were able to explain accurately what it did. All they had done was seize on a few inaccurate press reports and run riot.
If it hadn't been that, it would have been something else.
Incidentally, this is why I have even less sympathy with Remainer MPs than with the nutters of the ERG. At least the ERG rejected the WA because they wanted the alternative of no deal. The Liberal Democrats and Greens have a sort of excuse insofar as they don't want to leave at all. What Labour wanted remains totally unclear. If they cause us to crash out with no deal instead of leaving in an orderly fashion due to their cack-handed attempts at playing student politics they will deserve a total wipeout at the ballot box.
Parties rarely get what they deserve. It's not inconceivable they could get rewarded by default, depending on how BXP voters react to whatever may happen if Boris cannot deliver.
On yesterday's Yougov Labour is heading for its lowest voteshare since 1918 and its lowest number of seats since 1935 which would be poetic justice for voting against the Withdrawal Agreement and playing games with the Union
It may be necessary to have a defeat of this scale to wake members up to the fools they have put into the leadership.
Perhaps but if Thornberry loses her seat to the LDs as the poll suggests is possible then the leading non Corbynite candidate for the Labour leadership would also be gone, if Corbynism retains its grip on Labour the LDs could then replace Labour as the main party of the centre left (the LDs being just 1% behind Labour with Yougov yesterday too)
It could happen. LibDems have an amazing opportunity in next few months/years to become a major party. SDP in Germany a shadow of its former self. Likewise France.
Macron in France and Trudeau in Canada both centre left liberals leading their country
Juat saw daft Dr Cable on Newnight saying that Boris will be forced out.
Then "Fred Blogg" will become PM of some as yet unformed Parliamantary grouping purely to stop Brexit with absoultely no mandate from anyone.
Has the silly old duffer gone mad?
Boris Johnson may well be forced out. But, only Corbyn can replace him.
Is that true, though?
What about an alternative neutral Tory leader that has crossparty appeal as a temporary stopgap to halt a No Deal Brexit? Like Lidington?
It’s unlikely, yes, and would cause a lot of fall out in both Labour and the Conservatives but not impossible.
Once again, I got 100/1 on Caroline Lucas last night. Any conceivable unity Prime Minister has to be acceptable to Jeremy Corbyn, and unthreatening, if it isn’t going to be him.
How can the 2019 version of Ken Clarke be considered threatening?
not threatening, but not acceptable to Corbyn I suppose
I would have thought Ken Clarke was the obvious choice. Caroline Lucas or Vince would give a bounce to the Greens or LDs. Ken will not give a bounce to anyone.
If Labour screw any opportunity up by being stubborn they are mad. It is not as if Corbyn as PM can get the support to get anything other than stopping us crashing out through anyway so what is the point in being PM then (other than saying I was PM ones!)
It all depends on:
Who can call a VONC What they want from it When doing so gives them what they want.
If it is Corbyn and he wants to avoid 'an undemocratic' (to use his words today) exit during an election, he can call a VONC after parliament sorts out one of revocation, extending, agreement or no deal by 31st October.
There are very few upsides to Corbyn and Labour in a quick VONC. Let the Conservatives own the chaos, opprobrium, internal splits and the like, and call a VONC when they are at rock bottom. That is not now, it is December / January at a guess.
If Corbyn let's no deal happen he will reap the whirlwind
Either him, parliament, Tory party, ERG, remainers, May, Johnson. The blame will be splattered across many, the resting point will frequently depend on the individuals starting viewpoint. It will not all be aimed at Corbyn and the electoral damage could be less than Labour have now with the current (lack of) policy.
Edit: Allowing Parliament to sit (as opposed to having an election) up to 31st October could be argued as giving the best chance of preventing No Deal. Safer than a VONC?
"Italy’s main stock market index in Milan has slumped after deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini called for new elections that would finally end the fragile coalition between his League and the Five Star Movement."
The Guardian has always been pro independence, George Monbiot was writing pro Indy articles even in 2014 and Simon Jenkins has never been a strong Unionist
Rubbish.
'The Guardian view on the Scottish referendum: Britain deserves another chance'
George Monbiot the Guardian September 2014 'Scots voting No to independence would be an astonishing act of self harm', no surprise Jenkins has joined him
Not really about football at all. Some on here will hate it and I'm not saying I agree with it or all the reasoning for it. But we have to ask ourselves, do we want to live in harmony on this island?
Before anyone pipes up and blames the dastardly 2016 referendum, cast your mind back to the 2015 general election. After his surprise victory David Cameron stood on the steps of Downing St and said 'We need to heal a broken nation.'
The problems go back decades. Is there the will to even try to fix it?
It is astonishing that Labour only got 2.2% in the Claines vote
Astonishingly high level of tactical voting. Really bad news for the Conservatives.
Assuming it was tactical voting. There's a non-trivial possibility it was Labour voters defecting having had enough.
Who knows. The national polls don't seem to be much of a guide to anything at the moment.
They're very inconsistent. But the trend remains, as it has been for eight months, that votes are draining away from Labour and every piece of evidence we have - polls, local elections, EU elections shows a similar trend. For the last five months, the same trend has been observable for the Tories but it seems to be on a lesser scale.
If the votes are leaving for tactical reasons, that's OK.
If they are leaving for other reasons - Labour has a big problem.
Interesting, but nothing here on want Boris's foes want instead.
Are you talking about what they actually want instead of the Great Patriotic Flounce, or are you talking about what they can pass? What they might be able to pass is an extension and general election, which could theoretically lead to the thing they want.
What they variously want is: 1) Lab: Renegotiate without the Tory red lines, then in/out referendum 2) LD: Not sure whether they want to do a new deal or stick with TMay's, but their main thing is that they want an in/out referendum 3) Some Tories: Norway, pretty much. In practice probably not very different from Lab. 4) Other Tories: The May-Barnier deal
Will nobody in the Party never hit the alarm button?
Edit: Apologies for the shocking grammar. Phone rang.
Can't think why Corbyn's Labour is losing votes to the LibDems.
Perhaps someone at Head Office will have the wisdom to set up a Committee of Enquiry. Might take a few years to report, but with luck there might still be a Labour Party left by then.
Cue the following arguments: 1) we have to stop Brexit to avoid recession, 2) we have to do Brexit to unlock investment, 3) it’s all Trump’s fault, 4) it’s the same across the World, 5) there’s too much pineapple on pizza.
The most important thing I’ve seen on here today is to wish Big G and his family well.
Will nobody in the Party never hit the alarm button?
Edit: Apologies for the shocking grammar. Phone rang.
Can't think why Corbyn's Labour is losing votes to the LibDems.
Perhaps someone at Head Office will have the wisdom to set up a Committee of Enquiry. Might take a few years to report, but with luck there might still be a Labour Party left by then.
or they could just read alastair campbell's resignation letter.
The Guardian has always been pro independence, George Monbiot was writing pro Indy articles even in 2014 and Simon Jenkins has never been a strong Unionist
Rubbish.
'The Guardian view on the Scottish referendum: Britain deserves another chance'
George Monbiot the Guardian September 2014 'Scots voting No to independence would be an astonishing act of self harm', no surprise Jenkins has joined him
Monbiot was right and many in Scotland predicted that if they agreed to be doormats and vote NO that Westminster would not be long in making them pay, and so it proved. They have been putting the boot in ever since.
Since announcing a few days ago that I intended resigning from the conservative party our family have experienced two separate health issues, both of which have preoccupied my attention. While neither are terminal they are both complex and very emotional and to be honest makes politics seem very much a secondary issue
I have popped in from time to time but frankly just see a lot of angst and to be honest very scary predictions.
Dominic Cummings in No 10 is quite unacceptable and Boris seems intent on bluffing his way to a no deal Brexit on the 31st October. Jeremy Corbyn, is by a large distance, the most unsuited politician in recent history to be considered PM material and amazingly in yesterday’s poll was beaten by Boris in every region in the Country including Scotland as the best PM.
John McDonnell, realising that labour will be whitewashed out of Scotland, decides to back Indy 2 as a direct attempt to break up the Union as he pursues his crazy anti UK campaign.
Everyone has no idea how to stop Brexit and it is to all the 498 mps across the parties lasting shame that they voted for this without knowing the consequences.
As for my party membership I have not sent in the resignation letter yet, and as some on here commented they would hardly be quaking in their boots, but I have other more important issues to deal with and my resignation will be delivered at the point no deal becomes reality
I will contribute from time to time but of course from mid-September to 8th October I will be away on a cruise to Canada and the US with little internet access. It seems that it will be it a momentous time in our politics
Best wishes to you and your family Mr G.
Thank you so much.
Today is hard as my son in laws Mother has to leave her home to go into dementia care. Terribly traumatic
Sorry to hear that. Best wishes to you and your family.
The Brexit gamble was Mr Cameron's vanity project to rein in naughty Tories, and he couldn't lose. He lost in part because Mr Johnson felt supporting 'Leave' would be a wizard-wheeze which might make him PM which it did! In between all that the Conservatives crowned an incompetent leader as PM and it all went horribly wrong. The Conservative Party designed, engineered and built Brexit in their name, for good or for bad. Corbyn was merely the inept Quality Controller that signed it off.
Its a pity his co-discoverer of graphene has left the UK for another EU country Singapore.....
The destination is not the relevant factor - it's the judgement that their scientific career suffers through exclusio from major eu funding and personnel. My wife is an academic and it's already a reality. She's not being invited to major cross border projects any more.
Comments
Please do keep posting on here when you can. Even though we are some way apart politically, I always enjoy your posts. One of the best things about PB is interacting with virtual friends who have different viewpoints.
Enjoy your cruise in September!
Would you agree the last ComRes poll was much less favourable for the Conservatives and has been an interesting trajectory since it was the initial ComRes polling in mid June which supporters of Johnson seized on - it was a majority of 140 back then as I recall?
The other polling suggests the window of opportunity is around or just after 31/10 for the Conservatives having delivered a No Deal Brexit. All other scenarios are much less favourable.
Best wishes to you and your family Big_G.
Please do keep posting on here when you can. Even though we are some way apart politically, I always enjoy your posts. One of the best things about PB is interacting with virtual friends who have different viewpoints.
Enjoy your cruise in September
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Thank you so much Ben. I will post from time to time and do not think we are that far apart in many ways
And we are looking forward to our cruise which is my birthday present to my dear lady wife of 55 years who will be 80 shortly after we return
Combinations of not feeling very welcome, worries about their position post-Brexit (despite the assurances offered) and also feeling that the UK won't be 'the place to be' in years to come due to post-Brexit general decline (the last paraphrasing two separate individuals). Some also heavily involved in EU projects and the uncertainty means that their current collaborators in EU27 can't commit to whether they'd be able to work with them in future if they remained in UK.
I'm UK funded (NHS grant) and have lots of family nearby - most of my wife's family - otherwise I'd be looking around too. I'm British, as is my wife, although she worked in the Netherlands for two years before we met.
Please accept my sympathy and commisserations.
It depends on what happens after you do.
Unfortunately, Johnson is going to try to take us all along with him.
Even Comres has shown Boris gets a Tory majority if he goes for No Deal
Back to today'snews though: surely making billions of pounds available for public services, whilst welcome in its own right, is going to have a negligible effect on a GE within the next 12 months as it will take time for any extra spending to feed through into service improvements?
As a result of Corbyn's utter incompetence we will be consigned to decades of Mr Johnson and his like. Even if Brexit starts life as a fiasco Johnson will have the time to polish that particular turd to shiny acceptability. Besides, 'No Deal Brexit', if it doesn't work out can always be pinned on Corbyn's intransigence over the awful WA and its failure to pass through the HoC. PB Tories you will note, are this morning treading that particular path suggesting Labour uniquely deserve political oblivion for not supporting Mrs May's deal, something I for one think will come to pass.
It's the overturning of a relationship you've been conditioned to since birth.
It is sad to say but it got easier as she deteriorated and she became clueless as to what was going on, but it also meant by that time she had to go into a home.
My sympathies also Big G.
Yes, Big G. I understand. My mother died of it. It is much harder on the loved ones than the person who has the dementia, though you are all victims.
Please accept my sympathy and commiserations.
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Thank you so much and we both have had first hand experience with it.
It is now my son in law who is facing the emotional roller coaster. As you rightly say the loved one is not cognizant of the dementia and it is the loved ones who suffer. When we had my Father in Law here in his last days I commented to the social workers how much I appreciated their care of my Father in Law and they said more than anything they were monitoring my family as it can have devastating family consequences. (at the time my 3 grown up children were all still at home)
Something most of the electorate are never going to think of Corbyn.
If Labour screw any opportunity up by being stubborn they are mad. It is not as if Corbyn as PM can get the support to get anything other than stopping us crashing out through anyway so what is the point in being PM then (other than saying I was PM ones!)
'The Guardian view on the Scottish referendum: Britain deserves another chance'
https://tinyurl.com/y2mgwy6a
Will nobody in the Party never hit the alarm button?
Although it wasn't actually a joke.
It is a pity that Brexit has not created the same kindness and thought
Would you agree that there should be concerns at the practice of ComRes (and others) of taking at face value the responses in 2019 of the question asking who the respondent voted for in 2017? I take it you are familiar with the study from YouGov which showed that people on its panel who said they voted Labour after the 2017 election often failed to admit the fact when asked the same question in 2019. That is a major problem when political allegiances have shifted so markedly in a period of just 2 years.
The two pollsters who are least vulnerable to the problem of false recall are Ipsos MORI (who don't weight by past vote at all) and YouGov (who weight based on recall as disclosed in 2017 not 2019). Those were the two most accurate pollsters at the 2019 Euros. As a consequence I have more confidence in their polling than that of others.
Who can call a VONC
What they want from it
When doing so gives them what they want.
If it is Corbyn and he wants to avoid 'an undemocratic' (to use his words today) exit during an election, he can call a VONC after parliament sorts out one of revocation, extending, agreement or no deal by 31st October.
There are very few upsides to Corbyn and Labour in a quick VONC. Let the Conservatives own the chaos, opprobrium, internal splits and the like, and call a VONC when they are at rock bottom. That is not now, it is December / January at a guess.
Edit: Allowing Parliament to sit (as opposed to having an election) up to 31st October could be argued as giving the best chance of preventing No Deal. Safer than a VONC?
Please can we have some proper markets BF?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland
Not really about football at all. Some on here will hate it and I'm not saying I agree with it or all the reasoning for it. But we have to ask ourselves, do we want to live in harmony on this island?
Before anyone pipes up and blames the dastardly 2016 referendum, cast your mind back to the 2015 general election. After his surprise victory David Cameron stood on the steps of Downing St and said 'We need to heal a broken nation.'
The problems go back decades. Is there the will to even try to fix it?
If the votes are leaving for tactical reasons, that's OK.
If they are leaving for other reasons - Labour has a big problem.
https://twitter.com/katgordon/status/1159424371389108224?s=20
What they variously want is:
1) Lab: Renegotiate without the Tory red lines, then in/out referendum
2) LD: Not sure whether they want to do a new deal or stick with TMay's, but their main thing is that they want an in/out referendum
3) Some Tories: Norway, pretty much. In practice probably not very different from Lab.
4) Other Tories: The May-Barnier deal
The most important thing I’ve seen on here today is to wish Big G and his family well.
The Brexit gamble was Mr Cameron's vanity project to rein in naughty Tories, and he couldn't lose. He lost in part because Mr Johnson felt supporting 'Leave' would be a wizard-wheeze which might make him PM which it did! In between all that the Conservatives crowned an incompetent leader as PM and it all went horribly wrong. The Conservative Party designed, engineered and built Brexit in their name, for good or for bad. Corbyn was merely the inept Quality Controller that signed it off.
And disaster Stalinism.