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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a 40% chance

The Betdata.io chart of movements on the Betfair exchange shows how punters are getting more and more convinced that here will be a no deal Brexit in 2019. This covers the past four months when so much has happened in British politics and no doubt things will be even more turbulent in the weeks ahead.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,432
    First.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    Second like - who knows any more?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452
    Curse of the old thread.

    Great rant from Tommy Lee. At least no one could accuse him of being part of the liberal luvvie elite.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    I don't think Johnson is bluffing, the stakes are too high. The question is if Parliament can stop him and the EU will agree.

    We could very quickly see crossover in this market.

    Though of course if the EU believes that No Deal will happen and blink offering a better deal then that could make No Deal less likely again.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    The second quarter GDP figures are dismal. There may be upward revisions, of course, but even if the revisions are quite substantial, the figure will still be dismal. Good job that Britain isn't contemplating any reckless move that might give the economy a heart attack.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    TBH, this isn't much of surprise. Growth happens because people stockpile in case of calamity - so when calamity is postponed, they use the stockpile and the economy contracts.

    It's what happens next that might prove more serious. Are people prepared for October 31st? If not what happens if the fruticakes currently ruining, er, running the country do take us out with no deal?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 9,923
    The er, comparatively good news is that at the moment this is:

    April -0.5%
    May +0.2%
    June n/c

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452
    'that Johnson is going to be a brave man indeed;

    Little evidence of that to date, certainly not enough to bet on it. A BJ climb down would certainly top the Brexit Entertaining Moments Charts which is already full of bangers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    If the Tories extend again they will be slaughtered by the Brexit Party and Corbyn will become PM so clearly Boris had to commit to Leave Deal or No Deal in October to win the next general election
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 11,432

    The second quarter GDP figures are dismal. There may be upward revisions, of course, but even if the revisions are quite substantial, the figure will still be dismal. Good job that Britain isn't contemplating any reckless move that might give the economy a heart attack.

    This is interesting:

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    George Monbiot the Guardian September 2014 'Scots voting No to independence would be an astonishing act of self harm', no surprise Jenkins has joined him

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland

    Monbiot was right and many in Scotland predicted that if they agreed to be doormats and vote NO that Westminster would not be long in making them pay, and so it proved. They have been putting the boot in ever since.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452
    ydoethur said:

    TBH, this isn't much of surprise. Growth happens because people stockpile in case of calamity - so when calamity is postponed, they use the stockpile and the economy contracts.

    It's what happens next that might prove more serious. Are people prepared for October 31st? If not what happens if the fruticakes currently ruining, er, running the country do take us out with no deal?
    So a boost at the next period of stockpiling?

    The Saj must commit to ending stockpiling boom and bust (though I guess No Deal will sort that out).
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,757
    edited August 9
    HYUFD said:
    Of course the idiot Mcdonnell ignores the fact that with Corbyn its been Corbyn before party and Corbyn before Country.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    The er, comparatively good news is that at the moment this is:

    April -0.5%
    May +0.2%
    June n/c

    phew that makes me feel much better
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726
    We could well already be in recession before Brexit happens, which will mean the arguments over the economic impact of Brexit will continue to the end of time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,162

    The er, comparatively good news is that at the moment this is:

    April -0.5%
    May +0.2%
    June n/c

    People spent like crazy during the heatwave last month from what I saw... Bet July's hot weather helps bring Q3 in at +0.1% and we miss the technical recession. :D
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636
    So apparently the opposition plan is to argue bad-temperedly about who's going to cut the cake, until everybody starves to death.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    We could well already be in recession before Brexit happens, which will mean the arguments over the economic impact of Brexit will continue to the end of time.
    Even Telegraph says its Brexit:

    "UK economy contracts as Brexit slowdown bites"
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452
    Sort of of on topic, The World Service is always a boon for insomniacs and their Hard Talk is usually an interesting and revealing listen. They had IDS on this am; outside religious zealots and political extremists, I don't think I've ever heard such a rigid, fanatical mindset being expressed. Worth a listen if just to give an idea of the thinking in charge at the moment.

    https://tinyurl.com/y4nwa6dy
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,210
    HYUFD said:
    So Labour's policy is to offer us a referendum between Remain and their softer Brexit. Whereas the Lib Dems think renegotiation is a sign of weakness so they'll offer us a referendum between Remain and... what? May's deal? Some mystery deal they'll work out after we've already voted?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    GIN1138 said:

    The er, comparatively good news is that at the moment this is:

    April -0.5%
    May +0.2%
    June n/c

    People spent like crazy during the heatwave last month from what I saw... Bet July's hot weather helps bring Q3 in at +0.1% and we miss the technical recession. :D
    That’s not necessarily true though, they might spend more on beer and bbqs but the shops will have been empty and big ticket items deferred.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    Why do you say that?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    tlg86 said:

    The second quarter GDP figures are dismal. There may be upward revisions, of course, but even if the revisions are quite substantial, the figure will still be dismal. Good job that Britain isn't contemplating any reckless move that might give the economy a heart attack.

    This is interesting:

    Presumably that just reflects stocking and de-stocking ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    ydoethur said:

    TBH, this isn't much of surprise. Growth happens because people stockpile in case of calamity - so when calamity is postponed, they use the stockpile and the economy contracts.

    It's what happens next that might prove more serious. Are people prepared for October 31st? If not what happens if the fruticakes currently ruining, er, running the country do take us out with no deal?
    So a boost at the next period of stockpiling?

    The Saj must commit to ending stockpiling boom and bust (though I guess No Deal will sort that out).
    Yep, we'll get rid of the boom element.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,032
    edited August 9
    Scott_P said:
    Some curious sleights of hand in what was said about this report, noticing that one of its authors was from Theresa May's office. "The public are turning their back on 60 years of liberalism", apparently, neglecting to mention that much of the orginal thrust of Thatcherism was reversing social liberalism in favour of economic liberalism. Most people felt more happy in a period of greater social and weaker economic liberalism in 1976, according to the famous survey of that year.

    It would successfully serve a conservative-authoritarian purpose to pretend that not only has economic and liberalism been rejected as a connected package, but also somehow that any of that package would come from "liberalism' rather than the right.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Scott_P said:
    If Johnson "moves on from freedom" he doesn't deserve to win.

    May tried that. Look where it got her.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    Cyclefree said:

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    Why do you say that?
    Britain has a majority clearly opposed to no deal. That majority will assert itself.

    The EU will not have limitless patience.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816
    Scott_P said:
    This is 100% right and, I think, connects with my facetious point on the previous thread about the Lib Dems' new heartland being Nice Places, and @IanB2's observation that it describes the new electoral demographics.

    Newnham in Cambridge, which the Lib Dems retained last night with an increased majority, is a very Nice Place. (I lived there for a year. In the village, obviously, not the college, much though I might have been infatuated with a particular Newnhamite at the time. Heady days.)

    Claines in Worcester, which the Lib Dems took, is also a very Nice Place. And so are the Cotswolds and other places where the Lib Dems are making gains. Comfortably off, socially liberal, strong believers in "community" and in public services.

    So when the report's author says "British politics is undergoing a sea change and it is for security, not freedom. Most voters are not freedom fighters who want more rampant individualism, a small state and lower taxes. They want well-funded public services, security for their family, and a strong community in the place which they live", then this describes the Lib Dem appeal succinctly. It is not far off what Corbynism briefly captured at the last election before sinking into a morass of anti-Semitism and Brexit apologism.

    If the Lib Dems can hold this together; avoid being holed as Labour has been; and broaden their appeal beyond the already comfortably off to those who will benefit most from well-funded public services and stronger communities; then the potential is vast.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,368
    tlg86 said:

    The second quarter GDP figures are dismal. There may be upward revisions, of course, but even if the revisions are quite substantial, the figure will still be dismal. Good job that Britain isn't contemplating any reckless move that might give the economy a heart attack.

    This is interesting:

    Stockpiles being run down. I don't think many people in business believe Brexit is happening. The Grand Old Duke of York probably had similar morale problems.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    I don't think Johnson is bluffing, the stakes are too high. The question is if Parliament can stop him and the EU will agree.

    We could very quickly see crossover in this market.

    Though of course if the EU believes that No Deal will happen and blink offering a better deal then that could make No Deal less likely again.

    More likely they believe it and don't blink ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218
    edited August 9
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 1,032

    Scott_P said:
    Some curious sleights of hand in what was said about this report, noticing that one of its authors was from Theresa May's office. "The public are turning their back on 60 years of liberalism", apparently, neglecting to mention that much of the orginal thrust of Thatcherism was reversing social liberalism in favour of economic liberalism. Most people felt more happy in a period of greater social and weaker economic liberalism in 1976, according to the famous survey of that year.

    It would successfully serve a conservative-authoritarian purpose to pretend that not only has economic and liberalism been rejected as a connected package, but also somehow that any of that package would come from "liberalism' rather than the right.
    *economic and social liberalism been rejected as a connected package*, I should say there.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 702
    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 1,816
    Ha, good spot. Though if you're old enough to work the night shift for Foxconn, you're certainly old enough to vote.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.

    so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    Cyclefree said:

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    Why do you say that?
    Britain has a majority clearly opposed to no deal. That majority will assert itself.

    The EU will not have limitless patience.
    I wish I could be as confident as you on your first point. That majority is split and is facing a PM determined to push something through in a manner which is unconstitutional, even if that majority asserts itself.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Scott_P said:
    Some curious sleights of hand in what was said about this report, noticing that one of its authors was from Theresa May's office. "The public are turning their back on 60 years of liberalism", apparently, neglecting to mention that much of the orginal thrust of Thatcherism was reversing social liberalism in favour of economic liberalism. Most people felt more happy in a period of greater social and weaker economic liberalism in 1976, according to the famous survey of that year.

    It would successfully serve a conservative-authoritarian purpose to pretend that not only has economic and liberalism been rejected as a connected package, but also somehow that any of that package would come from "liberalism' rather than the right.
    Explains a lot that May's team are behind this garbage. I said this is what May tried.

    The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 48,427

    The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.

    They are nothing
  • If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
    However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
    The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218
    edited August 9
    On topic: The smartest thing that was said* about Theresa May when she become PM was that she would soon discover that the job of PM wasn't as easy as David Cameron made it look. Judging by his latest rather plaintive comments**, Boris is beginning to discover something similar, that for all her faults Theresa May actually didn't do a bad job in the negotiations. But he has boxed himself in with a brain-dead and arbitrary deadline; if he is bluffing, he has made a damned silly rod for his own back, and if he's not bluffing he's made an even sillier rod for his own back. "I am in blood Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o'er"

    So effectively this is a bet on whether parliament has the means and will to take back control. That is very uncertain, but if anything I would say that the market is underestimating the risk of crash-out.

    * I forget who said this, but it was one of the political journalists.

    ** https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/08/no-10-refuses-to-rule-out-election-shortly-after-31-october-brexit
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    Scott_P said:
    Some curious sleights of hand in what was said about this report, noticing that one of its authors was from Theresa May's office. "The public are turning their back on 60 years of liberalism", apparently, neglecting to mention that much of the orginal thrust of Thatcherism was reversing social liberalism in favour of economic liberalism. Most people felt more happy in a period of greater social and weaker economic liberalism in 1976, according to the famous survey of that year.

    It would successfully serve a conservative-authoritarian purpose to pretend that not only has economic and liberalism been rejected as a connected package, but also somehow that any of that package would come from "liberalism' rather than the right.
    Explains a lot that May's team are behind this garbage. I said this is what May tried.

    The Tories are economic liberals or they are nothing.
    Do you have any tougher Qs?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 872

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.

    We are over due for a recession.

    America is in a world of its own, and our growth and recovery has been better than Japan's and the euro area over the last decade.

    You should compare just one year.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Nabavi, more fun yet is contrasting the sage Greta Thingydoodah, so wise for her years, with the ISIS teenage brides who were 'clearly' too young to be held responsible for their actions.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 872
    nunuone said:

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.

    We are over due for a recession.

    America is in a world of its own, and our growth and recovery has been better than Japan's and the euro area over the last decade.

    You should compare just one year.
    *you shouldn't compare just one year
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 702

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.

    so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?
    I think that running a 4% fiscal deficit at the peak of the economic cycle is having a predictably positive effect on their GDP growth, yes. Although I would note that 0.5% growth is around trend for the US so the economy is hardly growing strongly there either, and will probably slow further. In fairness I should also point out that the German economy probably shrank by about 0.2% in Q2 too - data are not published yet. They have their own problems in manufacturing, which is a quarter of their economy.
    Anyway, those are some facts. I don't really know what point you are trying to make, otherwise I would have responded more specifically.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801

    The er, comparatively good news is that at the moment this is:

    April -0.5%
    May +0.2%
    June n/c

    Thank goodness! White Rabbit to the rescue!

    The Brexithating Broadcasting Corporation are leading their bulletins describing the figures as terrible
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    What kind of signal would closing the banks send?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Nabavi, perhaps.

    But the contempt of u-turning would be a different order of magnitude to the consequences of leaving with no deal.

    Boris Johnson's concern is Boris Johnson. What burnishes his destined Churchillian legacy, and what tarnishes it?

    If the UK leaves and flourishes he'll claim to be Moses reborn. If we leave and flounder, his legacy is a wreckage.

    He wants to be liked. An admirable trait, in a spaniel. Or a whore. But not in a Prime Minister.

    So, where does a desire to be liked lead an egocentric buffoon?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    You yourself have seen the polling about how much the average, won't be affected by much (unless their pension is hit !) brexiteer wants brexit.
    It strikes .e there will probably be a short term poll boost for the Tories even if with livestock burning in the fields.

    Meanwhile the forces opposed to Brexit in the commons seem to be descending into their own moderates Vs Corbynites war. Twas ever thus
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    Scott_P said:
    This is 100% right and, I think, connects with my facetious point on the previous thread about the Lib Dems' new heartland being Nice Places, and @IanB2's observation that it describes the new electoral demographics.

    Newnham in Cambridge, which the Lib Dems retained last night with an increased majority, is a very Nice Place. (I lived there for a year. In the village, obviously, not the college, much though I might have been infatuated with a particular Newnhamite at the time. Heady days.)

    Claines in Worcester, which the Lib Dems took, is also a very Nice Place. And so are the Cotswolds and other places where the Lib Dems are making gains. Comfortably off, socially liberal, strong believers in "community" and in public services.

    So when the report's author says "British politics is undergoing a sea change and it is for security, not freedom. Most voters are not freedom fighters who want more rampant individualism, a small state and lower taxes. They want well-funded public services, security for their family, and a strong community in the place which they live", then this describes the Lib Dem appeal succinctly. It is not far off what Corbynism briefly captured at the last election before sinking into a morass of anti-Semitism and Brexit apologism.

    If the Lib Dems can hold this together; avoid being holed as Labour has been; and broaden their appeal beyond the already comfortably off to those who will benefit most from well-funded public services and stronger communities; then the potential is vast.
    LibDems have a once in maybe 50 or even 100 year chance to go stellar now. Last time remotely the same level of potential was the Liberal-SDP Alliance.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Scott_P said:
    This is 100% right and, I think, connects with my facetious point on the previous thread about the Lib Dems' new heartland being Nice Places, and @IanB2's observation that it describes the new electoral demographics.

    Newnham in Cambridge, which the Lib Dems retained last night with an increased majority, is a very Nice Place. (I lived there for a year. In the village, obviously, not the college, much though I might have been infatuated with a particular Newnhamite at the time. Heady days.)

    Claines in Worcester, which the Lib Dems took, is also a very Nice Place. And so are the Cotswolds and other places where the Lib Dems are making gains. Comfortably off, socially liberal, strong believers in "community" and in public services.

    So when the report's author says "British politics is undergoing a sea change and it is for security, not freedom. Most voters are not freedom fighters who want more rampant individualism, a small state and lower taxes. They want well-funded public services, security for their family, and a strong community in the place which they live", then this describes the Lib Dem appeal succinctly. It is not far off what Corbynism briefly captured at the last election before sinking into a morass of anti-Semitism and Brexit apologism.

    If the Lib Dems can hold this together; avoid being holed as Labour has been; and broaden their appeal beyond the already comfortably off to those who will benefit most from well-funded public services and stronger communities; then the potential is vast.
    LibDems have a once in maybe 50 or even 100 year chance to go stellar now. Last time remotely the same level of potential was the Liberal-SDP Alliance.
    What about Cleggasm? They're not polling anything close to that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,861

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
    However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
    The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
    As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

    If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    The Northants by-election saw the Tories drop from 1040 to 542 and Labour from 670 to 478, with no BNP candidate this time.

    Relatively not a bad result for Labour, although clearly no excitement without the LibDems
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    What kind of signal would closing the banks send?

    Its actually a sensible proposal.

    I made the point when the date was chosen that the original date (29/3) was sensibly a Friday, so we would exit on a Friday night then have the weekend and then start normal life outside the EU.

    Whereas the EU's chosen date is a Thursday night, which means we exit - have Friday for some reason, then the weekend. Making the Friday a bank holiday - can be a public celebration of our independence day - means we've got a long weekend to start things off with.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    Scott_P said:
    This is 100% right and, I think, connects with my facetious point on the previous thread about the Lib Dems' new heartland being Nice Places, and @IanB2's observation that it describes the new electoral demographics.

    Newnham in Cambridge, which the Lib Dems retained last night with an increased majority, is a very Nice Place. (I lived there for a year. In the village, obviously, not the college, much though I might have been infatuated with a particular Newnhamite at the time. Heady days.)

    Claines in Worcester, which the Lib Dems took, is also a very Nice Place. And so are the Cotswolds and other places where the Lib Dems are making gains. Comfortably off, socially liberal, strong believers in "community" and in public services.

    So when the report's author says "British politics is undergoing a sea change and it is for security, not freedom. Most voters are not freedom fighters who want more rampant individualism, a small state and lower taxes. They want well-funded public services, security for their family, and a strong community in the place which they live", then this describes the Lib Dem appeal succinctly. It is not far off what Corbynism briefly captured at the last election before sinking into a morass of anti-Semitism and Brexit apologism.

    If the Lib Dems can hold this together; avoid being holed as Labour has been; and broaden their appeal beyond the already comfortably off to those who will benefit most from well-funded public services and stronger communities; then the potential is vast.
    LibDems have a once in maybe 50 or even 100 year chance to go stellar now. Last time remotely the same level of potential was the Liberal-SDP Alliance.
    What about Cleggasm? They're not polling anything close to that.
    Ah yes, forgot about that. Very brief though, and not based on any particular major change in the weather, just a proper sight of Clegg on TV as an equal and all that 'I agree with Nick' stuff.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    Scott_P said:
    This is 100% right and, I think, connects with my facetious point on the previous thread about the Lib Dems' new heartland being Nice Places, and @IanB2's observation that it describes the new electoral demographics.

    Newnham in Cambridge, which the Lib Dems retained last night with an increased majority, is a very Nice Place. (I lived there for a year. In the village, obviously, not the college, much though I might have been infatuated with a particular Newnhamite at the time. Heady days.)

    Claines in Worcester, which the Lib Dems took, is also a very Nice Place. And so are the Cotswolds and other places where the Lib Dems are making gains. Comfortably off, socially liberal, strong believers in "community" and in public services.

    So when the report's author says "British politics is undergoing a sea change and it is for security, not freedom. Most voters are not freedom fighters who want more rampant individualism, a small state and lower taxes. They want well-funded public services, security for their family, and a strong community in the place which they live", then this describes the Lib Dem appeal succinctly. It is not far off what Corbynism briefly captured at the last election before sinking into a morass of anti-Semitism and Brexit apologism.

    If the Lib Dems can hold this together; avoid being holed as Labour has been; and broaden their appeal beyond the already comfortably off to those who will benefit most from well-funded public services and stronger communities; then the potential is vast.
    LibDems have a once in maybe 50 or even 100 year chance to go stellar now. Last time remotely the same level of potential was the Liberal-SDP Alliance.
    They will go nowhere, happening when they have zero talent means they will stay as nonentities
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    What kind of signal would closing the banks send?

    They'll be proposing to close the banks for several months next.

    When do I pick up my rationing card?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Thompson, polls now seem to be a four way tie. That's certainly comparable to how Clegg polled, particularly with four rather than three parties at the sharp end.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 702
    edited August 9
    nunuone said:

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.

    We are over due for a recession.

    America is in a world of its own, and our growth and recovery has been better than Japan's and the euro area over the last decade.

    You should compare just one year.
    That reflects different demographics. In per capita terms our economic growth over the last decade has been identical to that of the euro area, weaker than Japan and about half the pace of the US. For comparison, we had the strongest per capita real GDP growth over a 10 year period prior to the crisis.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    A Conservative minister proposes closing the banks because of the terrible effects of its own flagship policy.

    Yes, that's right kids, a conservative government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,324
    tlg86 said:

    The second quarter GDP figures are dismal. There may be upward revisions, of course, but even if the revisions are quite substantial, the figure will still be dismal. Good job that Britain isn't contemplating any reckless move that might give the economy a heart attack.

    This is interesting:

    Surely just a consequence of the stock building in Q1 unwinding in Q2. But it probably hasn't helped the dismal performance of the EZ. Unfortunately there is little evidence of a sustained improvement in our balance of payments.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607
    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 642

    Cyclefree said:

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    Why do you say that?
    Britain has a majority clearly opposed to no deal. That majority will assert itself.

    The EU will not have limitless patience.
    Personally, of the options available I support a sensible WA deal - the one Ken Clarke and, belatedly Boris, voted for.

    Having a majority opposed to no deal is no use on its own. Without consulting the public parliament and government signed up to a treaty making no deal the default position for anyone in any circumstances wanting to leave the EU. Shame we can't wave Bogdanor's Harry Potter wand and legislate retrospectively to reverse. If those wanting to avoid no deal, and avoid TMs deal wish to do so they had better stop keeping their positive plan such a secret.

    BTW, the EU's most sensible plan would be (as they can under Art 50) to offer an unlimited extension subject to our acceptance. That then places Boris in a position where transferring the blame becomes harder.


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607
    edited August 9
    Gove's remarks on the banks are madness! Everyone will think the government has a secret plan to stop people drawing out their own money. A major run on the banks is now a huge possibility.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 702

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    On PB some time today, I am sure. None of their other attack lines seem to have any traction.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
  • If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
    However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
    The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
    As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

    If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

    Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
    And by which means?
    Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.

    so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?
    I think that running a 4% fiscal deficit at the peak of the economic cycle is having a predictably positive effect on their GDP growth, yes. Although I would note that 0.5% growth is around trend for the US so the economy is hardly growing strongly there either, and will probably slow further. In fairness I should also point out that the German economy probably shrank by about 0.2% in Q2 too - data are not published yet. They have their own problems in manufacturing, which is a quarter of their economy.
    Anyway, those are some facts. I don't really know what point you are trying to make, otherwise I would have responded more specifically.
    Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.

    If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    Gove's remarks on the banks are madness! Everyone will think the government has a secret plan to stop people drawing out their own money. A major run on the banks is now a huge possibility.

    Spend your £ while they still have some value......
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218
    algarkirk said:


    ...
    BTW, the EU's most sensible plan would be (as they can under Art 50) to offer an unlimited extension subject to our acceptance. That then places Boris in a position where transferring the blame becomes harder.

    I'm pretty sure they will do that, albeit stopping short of a formal offer (because that would be legally difficult).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    lol
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
    However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
    The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
    As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

    If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

    Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
    And by which means?
    Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
    May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.

    Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075

    What kind of signal would closing the banks send?

    They'll be proposing to close the banks for several months next.

    When do I pick up my rationing card?
    Tucked inside your blue passport.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893
    Cyclefree said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Well, we’ve already heard that thoroughly dishonest argument being made by Raab - and some posters on here - about the possibility of a No Deal Brexit. So yes I expect to hear that pretty soon.

    The dishonesty of some of the No Deal Brexiteers is astonishing.
    Is it any worse than the Remainers ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.

    Neither has a recession.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
    However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
    The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
    As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

    If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

    Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
    And by which means?
    Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
    May foolishly chose to let MPs decide whether to extend and rather that choose one of the 3 available end states they chose to drag on this madness.

    Thankfully Boris isn't making the same mistake.
    Thanks goodness he's finding original ways to cock things up ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.

    Neither has a recession.

    apparently it has
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 19,893
    TOPPING said:

    How long before we hear the following? 'The Remain campaign made it abundantly clear that Brexit might cause a recession, so the voters knew perfectly well that they were voting for that possibility.'

    Brexit hasn't happened yet.
    Remainers are often criticised for forecasting a recession after the vote, not after Brexit, and here we seem to be on the cusp of a recession if not one technically and yet you are saying it can't be Brexit-related because we haven't left yet. Am I misunderstanding your post?
    he's laughing in your face.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 702

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.

    so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?
    I think that running a 4% fiscal deficit at the peak of the economic cycle is having a predictably positive effect on their GDP growth, yes. Although I would note that 0.5% growth is around trend for the US so the economy is hardly growing strongly there either, and will probably slow further. In fairness I should also point out that the German economy probably shrank by about 0.2% in Q2 too - data are not published yet. They have their own problems in manufacturing, which is a quarter of their economy.
    Anyway, those are some facts. I don't really know what point you are trying to make, otherwise I would have responded more specifically.
    Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.

    If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
    Thanks for the economics lesson! I don't link every piece of bad news to Brexit, just ones that are clearly linked to Brexit (read the PMI surveys for Q2 if you don't believe me). The Q2 GDP contraction was mainly driven by manufacturing, reflecting the volatility around stockbuilding dynamics around 29 March. Yes construction data are often revised, but construction was only a marginal driver of the contraction. The services sector is actually the biggest worry, with output slowing significantly over the last year.
    If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 11,801
    edited August 9

    Cyclefree said:

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    Why do you say that?
    Britain has a majority clearly opposed to no deal. That majority will assert itself.

    The EU will not have limitless patience.
    I think that's the key. Despite FPTP the electorate find a way to get rid of governments they don't like and with poll ratings of 30% or less Johnson's govenment is unlikely to win a general election whoever the official opposition. They even found a way of neutering Mrs May after her huberistic Brexit campaign and she was infinitely more popular than Johnson and Rasputin
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,861

    If a no deal Brexit happens, it will be because the EU wills it, not Britain.

    With all due respect Mr. Meeks, I disagree.
    However the upcoming sequence of events actually plays out, I think the EU leadership will stand firm to its red lines, but will still insist on offering the option of an extension with little or no preconditions.
    The EU leadership will want to make absolutely clear that the UK is doing its Brexit completely voluntarily.
    As many of us said when May was forced to agree an extension to October, the legislature needs to take responsibility for the economic cost their dicking about is causing. Brexit can't just be strung out and strung out and strung out. If you want to know what Brexit uncertainty is doing to our economics, look at the latest economic data. Stock-pile, run down stock, stock-pile, run down stock....that is not a sustainable economic model.

    If the EU wants to slash off its own nose to spite its face, then the UK needs to get on and leave on 31st October.

    Who exactly forced Mrs May to request an extension?
    And by which means?
    Did Mr Hammond point a gun at her head? Or Mr Juncker perhaps?
    Well, let's see - MPs wouldn't pass May's Shit Deal, but wouldn't revoke and wouldn't go No Deal Brexit. So where do YOU think the blame lies for May having to agree an extension to allow Westminster MPs to form another circle jerk.....
  • kamskikamski Posts: 149
    I think in this case you're being a bit silly.

    Whether a 16-year-old is attending school during the day is very relevant to the fact that they are working nights, whereas it is not very relevant as to whether they can vote.

    Whether a 16-year-old is a citizen is very relevant to their voting rights, and pretty irrelevant to whether they are working nights in a factory while still at school.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 26,324
    I don't think that there is any question that the continuing uncertainty that our political idiots wished upon the country by delaying Brexit from March to October has contributed to the disappointing GDP figures but the Q1 figures were somewhat flattered by stockbuilding and some run down of that was inevitable.

    The unfortunate truth is that the European economy is really struggling and falling into recession. Our economy is heavily integrated with the EU and is being detrimentally affected. This is an entirely different question to whether Brexit is aggravating or ameliorating this somewhat dismal situation. I think that the uncertainty is certainly not helping.

    What is reasonably clear, once again, is that the effect of Brexit, though negative, is small and that we are being swept along by far more powerful international trends. Germany is very likely to have a similar Q2 figure to us. Italy will be worse. France maybe a fraction better but within the margins of error. The ability of our government and the BoE to address these international trends is modest but real. It really is past time that our political classes put this nonsense to bed and started concentrating on the many more important issues.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    Q2 GDP (% over Q1):
    US +0.5
    Euro Area +0.2
    Japan +0.4
    UK -0.2.
    Loving that Brexit dividend.

    so you think Trump is doing an excellent job ?
    I think that running a 4% fiscal deficit at the peak of the economic cycle is having a predictably positive effect on their GDP growth, yes. Although I would note that 0.5% growth is around trend for the US so the economy is hardly growing strongly there either, and will probably slow further. In fairness I should also point out that the German economy probably shrank by about 0.2% in Q2 too - data are not published yet. They have their own problems in manufacturing, which is a quarter of their economy.
    Anyway, those are some facts. I don't really know what point you are trying to make, otherwise I would have responded more specifically.
    Im simply making the point that looking at one quarters data and drawing Brexit conclusions from it is a bit silly. Given the way the UK serially mishandles GDP data especially around construction it wouldnt surprise if we had revisionsi n 6 months time which put us in growth.

    If youre going to shout Brexit at every peice of bad news you simply undermiine what you are saying.
    Thanks for the economics lesson! I don't link every piece of bad news to Brexit, just ones that are clearly linked to Brexit (read the PMI surveys for Q2 if you don't believe me). The Q2 GDP contraction was mainly driven by manufacturing, reflecting the volatility around stockbuilding dynamics around 29 March. Yes construction data are often revised, but construction was only a marginal driver of the contraction. The services sector is actually the biggest worry, with output slowing significantly over the last year.
    If you think this is not Brexit related, you are not paying attention, or perhaps you are blinded by dogmatic adherence to the failing Brexit project. I reserve my right to call out that failure when it manifests itself, as it clearly has in the data released today.

    No Deal will absolutely hammer services.

  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 723
    Remember the name, JOHN BERCOW. Only HE can avoid a No Deal Brexit.
This discussion has been closed.