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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political backcloth to current events is that the majority

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 9 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The political backcloth to current events is that the majority of those who have a view think Brexit is wrong

There was a time when the Brexit tracker in every new Times/YouGov poll would get reported and discussed with people trying to read something into the changes week on week. That’s now long gone. Public opinion as measured by this tracker has remained pretty constant for “wrong” with over the past year the lead being mostly in a range of 6-11 points.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 209
    Thinking voting for Brexit was a mistake is different from thinking we shouldn't Brexit.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    Labour's manifesto wasn't in favour of Brexit. It was in favour of a Labour Brexit. They've acted totally in accordance with their manifesto (something parties should do more often - but obviously not in this case)
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    Boris can get his no-deal Brexit through and then wait until 2022 for the election (15.5 on BFE)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    The Tories big advantage, and everyone else's big disadvantage, is that the Murdoch press and the Mail (etc) will place the blame for No Deal and all the consequences on the shoulders of the EU Commissioners and negotiators.
    Loudly and persistently. And inaccurately.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,441

    Boris can get his no-deal Brexit through and then wait until 2022 for the election (15.5 on BFE)

    I agree with that. The risk of going early is that the election becomes about something which is not on the current political agenda.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    edited August 9
    Yet Yougov yesterday had Remainers only preferring Corbyn to Boris by 31% to 18%, Leavers preferred Boris to Corbyn by a huge 61% to 4% margin.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-

    There may still be Labour to LD tactical voting but there will be far less LD and Remainer to Labour tactical voting than in 2017
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    Indeed. Would be a brave PM to go to the polls on c32% of the vote, with your only policy and personal approval ratings so low. You simply cannot rely on the following three things happening.
    1) The opposition splitting perfectly to allow you to win.
    2) The opposition being confused as to which Party is able to beat you in any given seat.
    3) The opposition being unwilling to vote tactically to defeat you. No sign of that in recent by-elections.
    Of course GEs have been won on low shares before, most recently in 2005. The difference being that that government was proposing a continuation of the status quo, not the most revolutionary shake up of the political and economic system since 1945 at least.
    Even a Tory win on those figures would be a poison chalice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    Labour's manifesto wasn't in favour of Brexit. It was in favour of a Labour Brexit. They've acted totally in accordance with their manifesto (something parties should do more often - but obviously not in this case)

    They could have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and then determined the future relationship in the transition period, including joining the Customs Union, as the political declaration was not legally binding
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    HYUFD said:

    Yet Yougov yesterday had Remainers only preferring Corbyn to Boris by 31% to 18%, Leavers preferred Boris to Corbyn by a huge 61% to 4% margin.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-

    There may still be Labour to LD tactical voting but there will be far less LD and Remainer to Labour tactical voting than in 2017

    Hmmm. Suspect there'll still be a lot of nose-holding and finger-crossing-behinds-the-back. I'd rather have Labour's prevarication that the Tories plumping to disaster.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    FPT

    malcolmg said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Afternoon Morris,

    It's a Friday so the sun passes the yardarm earlier.

    I take it all true Scots have made the switch-

    #Carling4Tennets4indyref2

    I've been thinking of a way to include our English cousins in this campaign to stop the Scottish Groat in it's tracks. How about-

    #Bourbon4Scotch4indyref2
    Briskin, Carling is pissy water, but I do enjoy a nice Bourbon , drinking a nice Woodford Reserve at present, very nice and worth the £35 a bottle. As good as a nice malt.
    They've had your pants down, Malc! Woodford is nice, but I only buy it when the supermarket knocks it out for 20 quid.
    LOL, well and truly spanked by sounds of it , but still very nice to drink. I will be more cost conscious next time
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883

    Boris can get his no-deal Brexit through and then wait until 2022 for the election (15.5 on BFE)

    You think his majority of one will survive No Deal? For 2 and a half years? If you do you deserve your 15.5.
    I'd want nearer 100.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    The question is by what mechanism the MPs seek to change the current state of affairs.

    So far, pro-EU MPs have managed to gain the right for a 'meaningful vote' and used it to steer us towards a no deal departure.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    dixiedean said:

    Boris can get his no-deal Brexit through and then wait until 2022 for the election (15.5 on BFE)

    You think his majority of one will survive No Deal? For 2 and a half years? If you do you deserve your 15.5.
    I'd want nearer 100.
    A fair point - I didn't put my money on it, was just quoting. Major lasted a long time on a crap majority didn't he? Not sure I'd need 100
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    dixiedean said:

    Boris can get his no-deal Brexit through and then wait until 2022 for the election (15.5 on BFE)

    You think his majority of one will survive No Deal? For 2 and a half years? If you do you deserve your 15.5.
    I'd want nearer 100.
    I'm getting confused by the Parliamentary arithmetic. Poor old chap!
    Is the Clown Prince of Lies majority of 1 over all other voting parties, Tories who still take the Whip plus the DUP or what?
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    HYUFD said:

    Labour's manifesto wasn't in favour of Brexit. It was in favour of a Labour Brexit. They've acted totally in accordance with their manifesto (something parties should do more often - but obviously not in this case)

    They could have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and then determined the future relationship in the transition period, including joining the Customs Union, as the political declaration was not legally binding
    Yeah but they're manifesto was quite clear - they'd only Brexit in government pretty much.

    They've done the country a disservice for sure - and they were getting punished in the polls for it - but I think that's peaked.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,533
    The political backcloth to PB is an interminable series of anti-Brexit threads.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    Talking of things I might put money on - am I backing or laying Salah at 3.95/4.1 for first goalscorer ????
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 569
    edited August 9
    This is what I think
    - if Boris goes for a GE on 1 Nov so that HoC isn't sitting on 31 Oct and can't stop no deal Brexit as a result, the Tories will be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime (I am 62)
    - if Boris loses a VONC and then mucks about thus ensuring no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the Tories will also be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
    - if Labour collude with the Tories in any way - either by failing to call a VONC in time, or by dithering about a GNU because of Corbyn and their pride, they will also be punished by the voters, but probably not as severely as the Tories
    - if no GE, no VONC or failed VONC and we leave the EU with no deal, it depends how bad it gets as to how severely either the Tories or Labour get punished
    - if a GE in time to stop no deal Brexit, Labour win and then don't stop it, Labour are unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
    - if HoC votes to stop no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the nightmare continues as is, we just reset the date from 31 Oct to whenever the new date is
    - if HoC passes a VONC and a GNU is formed, 31 Oct deadline will fall and there is a chance of either another referendum or revoking A50

    In none of these scenarios do I envisage the Brexit party gaining a lot of votes at the next GE. In none of these scenarios do I envisage anything other than the SNP, Lib Dems, Greens, or Plaid gaining votes, although turnout will be depressed by lack of faith in politicians.

    Anyone want to disagree with me? Anyone got any other scenarios?*

    *suggesting the HoC will pass the WA is too ridiculous for words.

    Edited and to at
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883

    dixiedean said:

    Boris can get his no-deal Brexit through and then wait until 2022 for the election (15.5 on BFE)

    You think his majority of one will survive No Deal? For 2 and a half years? If you do you deserve your 15.5.
    I'd want nearer 100.
    I'm getting confused by the Parliamentary arithmetic. Poor old chap!
    Is the Clown Prince of Lies majority of 1 over all other voting parties, Tories who still take the Whip plus the DUP or what?
    Tbf, I am quoting what I read. I assume that would be Tories with the whip plus DUP over the rest.
    I understand that you can't just lump all the exotic flavours of Indys, especially Elphicke, in there. However, No Deal would mean minority government almost certainly. Making 2022 nigh on impossible.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131

    dixiedean said:

    Boris can get his no-deal Brexit through and then wait until 2022 for the election (15.5 on BFE)

    You think his majority of one will survive No Deal? For 2 and a half years? If you do you deserve your 15.5.
    I'd want nearer 100.
    I'm getting confused by the Parliamentary arithmetic. Poor old chap!
    Is the Clown Prince of Lies majority of 1 over all other voting parties, Tories who still take the Whip plus the DUP or what?
    I think it's with the DUP because they didn't get a majority did they - Dixiedean making a fair point
  • malcolmg said:

    FPT

    malcolmg said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Afternoon Morris,

    It's a Friday so the sun passes the yardarm earlier.

    I take it all true Scots have made the switch-

    #Carling4Tennets4indyref2

    I've been thinking of a way to include our English cousins in this campaign to stop the Scottish Groat in it's tracks. How about-

    #Bourbon4Scotch4indyref2
    Briskin, Carling is pissy water, but I do enjoy a nice Bourbon , drinking a nice Woodford Reserve at present, very nice and worth the £35 a bottle. As good as a nice malt.
    They've had your pants down, Malc! Woodford is nice, but I only buy it when the supermarket knocks it out for 20 quid.
    LOL, well and truly spanked by sounds of it , but still very nice to drink. I will be more cost conscious next time
    Dunno what it's like up in your neck of the woods, but down here, our supermarkets seem to be heavily discounting the bourbons and the rums at the minute. It almost feels compulsory to buy!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mrs B, I imagine BP will underperform, most likely, at the next election due to a combination of people wanting to vote for a potential government coupled with the Faragian record of being rubbish at FPTP elections.

    However, that doesn't mean they'll have a necessarily small influence on results. They could take votes from the main parties, mostly helping the Lib Dems, as well as maintaining pressure on the Clown Prince.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111
    Monkeys said:

    Thinking voting for Brexit was a mistake is different from thinking we shouldn't Brexit.

    The key questions are whether we actually WILL Brexit and how? And, assuming we do, what next? The mistake question informs the second of these.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Boris can get his no-deal Brexit through and then wait until 2022 for the election (15.5 on BFE)

    You think his majority of one will survive No Deal? For 2 and a half years? If you do you deserve your 15.5.
    I'd want nearer 100.
    I'm getting confused by the Parliamentary arithmetic. Poor old chap!
    Is the Clown Prince of Lies majority of 1 over all other voting parties, Tories who still take the Whip plus the DUP or what?
    Tbf, I am quoting what I read. I assume that would be Tories with the whip plus DUP over the rest.
    I understand that you can't just lump all the exotic flavours of Indys, especially Elphicke, in there. However, No Deal would mean minority government almost certainly. Making 2022 nigh on impossible.
    Elphicke's a nailed on Tory until a Judge says something very unpleasant about his future.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,253

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    I was told this wouldn't happen until we had actually left. :o
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    dixiedean said:

    Boris can get his no-deal Brexit through and then wait until 2022 for the election (15.5 on BFE)

    You think his majority of one will survive No Deal? For 2 and a half years? If you do you deserve your 15.5.
    I'd want nearer 100.
    I'm getting confused by the Parliamentary arithmetic. Poor old chap!
    Is the Clown Prince of Lies majority of 1 over all other voting parties, Tories who still take the Whip plus the DUP or what?
    I think it's with the DUP because they didn't get a majority did they - Dixiedean making a fair point
    The working majority is with DUP votes, although their agreement has run out iirc.

    House of Commons quotes the current working majority as 0.

    I make it 1, but Lab have 2 deputy speakers.
  • VinnyVinny Posts: 46
    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    RobD said:

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    I was told this wouldn't happen until we had actually left. :o
    It's a practice run......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    RobD said:

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    I was told this wouldn't happen until we had actually left. :o
    Chinese or Russian hacks?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,368
    edited August 9
    HYUFD said:

    Yet Yougov yesterday had Remainers only preferring Corbyn to Boris by 31% to 18%, Leavers preferred Boris to Corbyn by a huge 61% to 4% margin.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-

    There may still be Labour to LD tactical voting but there will be far less LD and Remainer to Labour tactical voting than in 2017

    I preferred May to Corbyn but would still have voted Labour or Lib Dem depending on which choice was most likely to frustrate Brexit. I prefer Corbyn to Boris, but if I changed my preferences for politicians to being in favour of lazy liars I still wouldn't vote for the blond buffoon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514

    RobD said:

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    I was told this wouldn't happen until we had actually left. :o
    Chinese or Russian hacks?
    Strong winds, perhaps?
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    Okay the bets on

    Back Norwich
    Odds 23
    Stake 5

    NOTE: This is not betting advice
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883

    Okay the bets on

    Back Norwich
    Odds 23
    Stake 5

    NOTE: This is not betting advice

    Now that is a decent bet. I sincerely wish you all the best!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 12,432
    RobD said:

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    I was told this wouldn't happen until we had actually left. :o
    The people stockpiling candles for Brexit will be feeling pretty smug right now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 25,861

    HYUFD said:

    Yet Yougov yesterday had Remainers only preferring Corbyn to Boris by 31% to 18%, Leavers preferred Boris to Corbyn by a huge 61% to 4% margin.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/08/voting-intention-con-31-lab-22-lib-dem-21-brex-14-

    There may still be Labour to LD tactical voting but there will be far less LD and Remainer to Labour tactical voting than in 2017

    I preferred May to Corbyn but would still have voted Labour or Lib Dem depending on which choice was most likely to frustrate Brexit. I prefer Corbyn to Boris, but if I changed my preferences for politicians to being in favour of lazy liars I still wouldn't vote for the blond buffoon.
    You were never down as a maybe.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,253

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    I thought the leave/remain split in the polls was basically unchanged since the referendum.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    MrsB said:

    This is what I think
    - if Boris goes for a GE on 1 Nov so that HoC isn't sitting on 31 Oct and can't stop no deal Brexit as a result, the Tories will be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime (I am 62)
    - if Boris loses a VONC and then mucks about thus ensuring no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the Tories will also be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
    - if Labour collude with the Tories in any way - either by failing to call a VONC in time, or by dithering about a GNU because of Corbyn and their pride, they will also be punished by the voters, but probably not as severely as the Tories
    - if no GE, no VONC or failed VONC and we leave the EU with no deal, it depends how bad it gets as to how severely either the Tories or Labour get punished
    - if a GE in time to stop no deal Brexit, Labour win and then don't stop it, Labour are unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
    - if HoC votes to stop no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the nightmare continues as is, we just reset the date from 31 Oct to whenever the new date is
    - if HoC passes a VONC and a GNU is formed, 31 Oct deadline will fall and there is a chance of either another referendum or revoking A50

    In none of these scenarios do I envisage the Brexit party gaining a lot of votes at the next GE. In none of these scenarios do I envisage anything other than the SNP, Lib Dems, Greens, or Plaid gaining votes, although turnout will be depressed by lack of faith in politicians.

    Anyone want to disagree with me? Anyone got any other scenarios?*

    *suggesting the HoC will pass the WA is too ridiculous for words.

    Edited and to at

    Corbyn colludes with Johnson to No Deal.

    None of the plans to block it or VoNC work because not enough MPs will abandon their parties.

    We No Deal.

    Johnson has to hold election next March/April as his majority is only one, and probably will have lost one by then.

    No Deal is an utter shitstorm. Even worse than the Project Fear predictions, on a par with the General Strike of 1926.

    Johnson loses in a landslide to someone else (Lab or Liberals - I have no idea at moment).

    Tories out of power for a generation.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Glenn, not here, that I know of.

    There's been a small amount of stormy weather, probably worse elsewhere. Just hope Whaley Bridge is still alright.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    RobD said:

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    I was told this wouldn't happen until we had actually left. :o
    The people stockpiling candles for Brexit will be feeling pretty smug right now.
    Flip. I forgot candles on my lists!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 4,522
    edited August 9
    RobD said:

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    I thought the leave/remain split in the polls was basically unchanged since the referendum.
    No.

    Persistently since 2017, there has been a majority who would vote Remain if another referendum was tomorrow. And as we see above, most believe the Leave vote was a mistake.

    However, as to whether we should now leave, it’s closer. A small but significant number of people seem to believe Leave was/is a mistake but think we should do it anyway, given the referendum result.
  • Genuine question. If we Brexit on 31st October and find it isn't as bad as people fear / good as people hope, will PB members prefer to punish the Tories for doing Brexit or stick with them in fear of Corbyn?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    Later peeps. I am away to the pub to drown my No Deal fears in the ale of Olde England.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,262
    dixiedean said:

    Okay the bets on

    Back Norwich
    Odds 23
    Stake 5

    NOTE: This is not betting advice

    Now that is a decent bet. I sincerely wish you all the best!
    I don't - I have Alexander-Arnold, Van Dijk and Robertson in my fantasy football team.
  • Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,826

    Genuine question. If we Brexit on 31st October and find it isn't as bad as people fear / good as people hope, will PB members prefer to punish the Tories for doing Brexit or stick with them in fear of Corbyn?

    For me it will depend entirely on non-Brexit issues. If we have left then Brexit does not concern me any more. Under those circumstances both Boris and Corbyn look poor choices.

    What will save Boris is not people's gratitude for a smooth Brexit but people's fear of Corbyn and his policies. People are sensible to differentiate between one key issue and the wider choice for PM.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988
    HYUFD said:

    Labour's manifesto wasn't in favour of Brexit. It was in favour of a Labour Brexit. They've acted totally in accordance with their manifesto (something parties should do more often - but obviously not in this case)

    They could have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and then determined the future relationship in the transition period, including joining the Customs Union, as the political declaration was not legally binding
    No, they could only do that if in charge of the negotiations during the withdrawal period.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    I notice the Saj gave a speech this morning from the National Grid Training Centre. Shortly before the National Grid packed in.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075

    Genuine question. If we Brexit on 31st October and find it isn't as bad as people fear / good as people hope, will PB members prefer to punish the Tories for doing Brexit or stick with them in fear of Corbyn?

    People’s views of how Brexit worked out would be defined largely by their prior views of Brexit. Leavers would view widespread civil unrest and famine as acceptable incidents. Remainers would view the arrival of the Rapture as evidence of a continued descent into irrationality.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    The Leave -> Remain switchers will be keeping quiet about it. No-one likes to admit to be made fools of.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    FF43 said:

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    The Leave -> Remain switchers will be keeping quiet about it. No-one likes to admit to be made fools of.
    Nope - I've shifted the other way.

    Mainly because Leave is a bunch of incompetent idiots who really shouldn't be left to run a whelk stall and definitely couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's manifesto wasn't in favour of Brexit. It was in favour of a Labour Brexit. They've acted totally in accordance with their manifesto (something parties should do more often - but obviously not in this case)

    They could have voted for the Withdrawal Agreement and then determined the future relationship in the transition period, including joining the Customs Union, as the political declaration was not legally binding
    No, they could only do that if in charge of the negotiations during the withdrawal period.
    In a hung parliament not necessarily if they got the votes for Customs Union membership plus if they got into government they could implement it anyway
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075

    Okay the bets on

    Back Norwich
    Odds 23
    Stake 5

    NOTE: This is not betting advice

    I’m a Norwich fan and even I regard that as an adventurous bet.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    dixiedean said:

    I notice the Saj gave a speech this morning from the National Grid Training Centre. Shortly before the National Grid packed in.

    I think it's safe to say that this Government doesn't have luck on its side..
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 18,826

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    Interesting to read how widespread the power cuts are, right across the country. Without getting all conspiracy theorist, it doesn't actually sound like your run of the mill storm effects. Or is there a fundamental issue with thet setup at the National Grid?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    RobD said:

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    I was told this wouldn't happen until we had actually left. :o
    Russian cyber attack, get used to it as they continue to destabilize the uk in partnership with the likes of Tice and JRM near their goal of avoiding financial transparency requirements. You leavers have been had big time
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    Yes, I have gone Remain to Leave too
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,441

    Okay the bets on

    Back Norwich
    Odds 23
    Stake 5

    NOTE: This is not betting advice

    I’m a Norwich fan and even I regard that as an adventurous bet.
    Best of luck tonight and remember TSE is a Liverpool fan.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    MrsB said:

    This is what I think
    - if Boris goes for a GE on 1 Nov so that HoC isn't sitting on 31 Oct and can't stop no deal Brexit as a result, the Tories will be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime (I am 62)
    - if Boris loses a VONC and then mucks about thus ensuring no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the Tories will also be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
    - if Labour collude with the Tories in any way - either by failing to call a VONC in time, or by dithering about a GNU because of Corbyn and their pride, they will also be punished by the voters, but probably not as severely as the Tories
    - if no GE, no VONC or failed VONC and we leave the EU with no deal, it depends how bad it gets as to how severely either the Tories or Labour get punished
    - if a GE in time to stop no deal Brexit, Labour win and then don't stop it, Labour are unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
    - if HoC votes to stop no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the nightmare continues as is, we just reset the date from 31 Oct to whenever the new date is
    - if HoC passes a VONC and a GNU is formed, 31 Oct deadline will fall and there is a chance of either another referendum or revoking A50

    In none of these scenarios do I envisage the Brexit party gaining a lot of votes at the next GE. In none of these scenarios do I envisage anything other than the SNP, Lib Dems, Greens, or Plaid gaining votes, although turnout will be depressed by lack of faith in politicians.

    Anyone want to disagree with me? Anyone got any other scenarios?*

    *suggesting the HoC will pass the WA is too ridiculous for words.

    Edited and to at

    Corbyn colludes with Johnson to No Deal.

    None of the plans to block it or VoNC work because not enough MPs will abandon their parties.

    We No Deal.

    Johnson has to hold election next March/April as his majority is only one, and probably will have lost one by then.
    I hear Dominic Cummings is looking into an alternative plan involving a soldier standing by the door of the chamber with a list of names.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    MrsB said:

    This is what I think
    - if Boris goes for a GE on 1 Nov so that HoC isn't sitting on 31 Oct and can't stop no deal Brexit as a result, the Tories will be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime (I am 62)
    - if Boris loses a VONC and then mucks about thus ensuring no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the Tories will also be unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
    - if Labour collude with the Tories in any way - either by failing to call a VONC in time, or by dithering about a GNU because of Corbyn and their pride, they will also be punished by the voters, but probably not as severely as the Tories
    - if no GE, no VONC or failed VONC and we leave the EU with no deal, it depends how bad it gets as to how severely either the Tories or Labour get punished
    - if a GE in time to stop no deal Brexit, Labour win and then don't stop it, Labour are unlikely to win another GE in my lifetime
    - if HoC votes to stop no deal Brexit on 31 Oct, the nightmare continues as is, we just reset the date from 31 Oct to whenever the new date is
    - if HoC passes a VONC and a GNU is formed, 31 Oct deadline will fall and there is a chance of either another referendum or revoking A50

    In none of these scenarios do I envisage the Brexit party gaining a lot of votes at the next GE. In none of these scenarios do I envisage anything other than the SNP, Lib Dems, Greens, or Plaid gaining votes, although turnout will be depressed by lack of faith in politicians.

    Anyone want to disagree with me? Anyone got any other scenarios?*

    *suggesting the HoC will pass the WA is too ridiculous for words.

    Edited and to at

    To be honest I think the only sane solution is another referendum with a fully defined leave position (No Deal).

    Then if we do vote to leave at least it's been confirmed
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    FPT
    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Possible about 90 cents to the dollar, about 80 cents to the Euro.

    What on earth does that mean?
    Currently
    £1 = €1.08
    £1 = $1.21

    You asked me how low I expect sterling to go and I predicted roughly
    £1 = €0.80
    £1 = $0.90

    I'm not sure what everyone else expects but that's my prediction.
    The most pessimistic forecast I've seen was a Deutsche Bank one at 1gbp = 0.95eur and 1.15usd. If we take 1.6usd as the pre-2015 average (yes I know you don't like that figure but run with me for a moment) then a drop to 0.8eur and 0.9usd is a drop of over 40% in under four years. That's bigger than the post-ww2 drop, the 1967 devaluation, the 1970s oil shock, the 1990s ERM fall out, or the Brexit night fall. It would be unpleasant.

    I know we argue a lot (and will do so again) but I do have to ask: is that prediction based on anything such as a bank report or investigation? It's a contingency I simply haven't considered and I would have to sit down and seriously think how to mitigate it, so I do need to ask.
    No its not a formal prediction from a forecast or bank report I don't mean to panic you! Its my own personal speculation, based on expecting the fall to be a bit bigger than reports speculate [as I think there will be an overreaction and even if the mean is say €0.85 there will be variations around that so a trough of €0.80 could be hit. I certainly don't expect that to be a new mean or new normal and I think it will rebound from that trough.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    HYUFD said:

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    Yes, I have gone Remain to Leave too
    image
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,368

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    Semi statistical anecdote. The pro-remain group in my town have been doing a survey to work out where remain support is ready for a second vote. They haven't found a single person who admits to changing their vote since the referendum. They have found people who didn't vote who would now turn out to vote remain. n=about 600.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    Interesting to read how widespread the power cuts are, right across the country. Without getting all conspiracy theorist, it doesn't actually sound like your run of the mill storm effects. Or is there a fundamental issue with thet setup at the National Grid?
    That's what I was thinking, though having a windstorm this strong in August is pretty much unprecedented and with trees still in full leaf the effects might be unusual for that reason.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 9,111
    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    The Leave -> Remain switchers will be keeping quiet about it. No-one likes to admit to be made fools of.
    Nope - I've shifted the other way.

    Mainly because Leave is a bunch of incompetent idiots who really shouldn't be left to run a whelk stall and definitely couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery.
    John Curtice reckons it's a wash. The bigger number of Remain voters now is down to younger, urban people who didn't vote last time. There is some doubt they will vote now, even though they say they will.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988

    Okay the bets on

    Back Norwich
    Odds 23
    Stake 5

    NOTE: This is not betting advice

    I’m a Norwich fan and even I regard that as an adventurous bet.
    I think Laying a Liverpool win or betting on the handicap markets Norwich +2 may be better value.

    Norwich are a well drilled side and Liverpool don't seem to have settled yet for the season.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,441
    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    Semi statistical anecdote. The pro-remain group in my town have been doing a survey to work out where remain support is ready for a second vote. They haven't found a single person who admits to changing their vote since the referendum. They have found people who didn't vote who would now turn out to vote remain. n=about 600.
    That doesn't surprise me. It's very difficult to admit you've been taken for a sucker.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    edited August 9

    Okay the bets on

    Back Norwich
    Odds 23
    Stake 5

    NOTE: This is not betting advice

    I’m a Norwich fan and even I regard that as an adventurous bet.
    You're always more cautious about your home team

    EDIT: C'mon - Let's be avin you!!!!
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 397
    Nobody is applying the theory of swingback to these polls. Why not?

    This is essentially mid-term for Brexit. That support for it is still pretty much within margin of error of more than opposition to it should under normal circumstances, e.g. if it were a government (e.g. with an opposition not led by a racist trotskyite, hypothetically speaking), be remarkable.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    Well labour have done their absolute best to tell potential lib dem tactical voters to get lost with their attacks on Swinson and the continued distorted references to the coalition years. Also I doubt many understand exactly what labour stand for in terms of brexit so on this occasion he is right.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    Semi statistical anecdote. The pro-remain group in my town have been doing a survey to work out where remain support is ready for a second vote. They haven't found a single person who admits to changing their vote since the referendum. They have found people who didn't vote who would now turn out to vote remain. n=about 600.
    False recall helps get rid of that problem. This may also affect polling adjustments.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,368

    Nobody is applying the theory of swingback to these polls. Why not?

    This is essentially mid-term for Brexit. That support for it is still pretty much within margin of error of more than opposition to it should under normal circumstances, e.g. if it were a government (e.g. with an opposition not led by a racist trotskyite, hypothetically speaking), be remarkable.

    Mid term? You think we'll be back in by 2022? I can't fault your optimism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    Indeed and while the LDs will make gains in some Tory Remain southern and London marginals the Tories will make gains in Labour Leave marginals in the North and Midlands and Wales as a result
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    Important thing to note about the YouGov poll tracker is that asks if we were right or wrong to vote to leave. A poll asking whether we should leave will give a significantly different result. There are still many Remainers and Switchers who think we should respect the result and leave the EU despite the misgivings.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 209
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    Well labour have done their absolute best to tell potential lib dem tactical voters to get lost with their attacks on Swinson and the continued distorted references to the coalition years. Also I doubt many understand exactly what labour stand for in terms of brexit so on this occasion he is right.
    There's a route to Swinson as LOTO in all of this. Very few places for a die-hard Remainer to go, and yet somehow Labour manage to piss off Leavers too. I was talking to a Labour friend who pointed out she has the Ruth/Nicola Honest Woman Saying What She Believes thing down too. If we do No Deal then GE, and BXP merge back to Tories she'll be wiping the floor with Corbyn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 38,253
    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    I was told this wouldn't happen until we had actually left. :o
    Russian cyber attack, get used to it as they continue to destabilize the uk in partnership with the likes of Tice and JRM near their goal of avoiding financial transparency requirements. You leavers have been had big time
    lol, you think this is all a conspiracy to avoid one piece of legislation?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 209
    Disclaimer: As SNP pro-Indy I have a lot of empathy for Leavers who want to see a referendum they won, fulfilled. And that's a strong argument Cummings will be running with.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    It will vary from place to place. Watson may well benefit for example, but Chris Williamson and co? no chance.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,368
    Dadge said:

    Vinny said:

    The point is that the majority for Brexit in the referendum was 1,269,501. None of this other rubbish matters.

    Many of whom have now either died or changed their minds.
    Non-statistical anecdote alert. Not one of my friends have changed their minds Leave -> Remain. Two have gone Remain -> Leave. My friends are rational professionals who don't discuss politics between them.
    Important thing to note about the YouGov poll tracker is that asks if we were right or wrong to vote to leave. A poll asking whether we should leave will give a significantly different result. There are still many Remainers and Switchers who think we should respect the result and leave the EU despite the misgivings.
    The remainers who want to respect the vote used to be a majority of remainers. But every day the referendum gets more distant and the failure of the project to be delivered efficiently undermines its legitimacy. The clock is ticking.
  • eekeek Posts: 4,803
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    Indeed and while the LDs will make gains in some Tory Remain southern and London marginals the Tories will make gains in Labour Leave marginals in the North and Midlands and Wales as a result
    I'm not so sure. For most LDs in a Labour seat supporting the Labour candidate to win the seat may still be the sanest choice (and I am regardless of my referendum vote a LD at heart)..

    In the North, Midlands and Wales the Tories need to decide which seats they wish to win, which they have zero chance in and do a deal as quietly as possible with Nigel for the Brexit party to do an administration cock up and fail to list candidates. Otherwise Nigel will cost Boris an awful lot of seats..

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    edited August 9
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    It will vary from place to place. Watson may well benefit for example, but Chris Williamson and co? no chance.
    Tom Watson? Seriously?

    He may be a voice of sanity on Labour's current travails with racism but let us not forget he is also a treacherous, dishonest bully with a track record of fake news and incompetence.

    It has come to something when he looks a more reasonable option than the official leader.

    Anyway if Labour lose WBW then it doesn't matter who votes for them, they're still finished.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    edited August 9
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    I was told this wouldn't happen until we had actually left. :o
    Russian cyber attack, get used to it as they continue to destabilize the uk in partnership with the likes of Tice and JRM near their goal of avoiding financial transparency requirements. You leavers have been had big time
    lol, you think this is all a conspiracy to avoid one piece of legislation?
    Yes and to create a regulation free UK where they can make even more money, there is no other sane reason for the project and those who have been conned will be hurt the most.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    Indeed and while the LDs will make gains in some Tory Remain southern and London marginals the Tories will make gains in Labour Leave marginals in the North and Midlands and Wales as a result
    I'm not so sure. For most LDs in a Labour seat supporting the Labour candidate to win the seat may still be the sanest choice (and I am regardless of my referendum vote a LD at heart)..

    In the North, Midlands and Wales the Tories need to decide which seats they wish to win, which they have zero chance in and do a deal as quietly as possible with Nigel for the Brexit party to do an administration cock up and fail to list candidates. Otherwise Nigel will cost Boris an awful lot of seats..

    On yesterday's Yougov there will be a 3.5% Labour to Tory swing in Labour marginals even if the Brexit Party stand in every one
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    It will vary from place to place. Watson may well benefit for example, but Chris Williamson and co? no chance.
    Tom Watson? Seriously?

    He may be a voice of sanity on Labour's current travails with racism but let us not forget he is also a treacherous, dishonest bully with a track record of fake news and incompetence.

    It has come to something when he looks a more reasonable option than the official leader.

    Anyway if Labour lose WBW then it doesn't matter who votes for them, they're still finished.
    WBE. WBW is my namesake's fiefdom.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    edited August 9
    Chris said:

    The cost of imports is a fraction of the price consumers pay. If all a retailer charged you was COGS then every retailer in the world will be out of business.

    And now, sadly, we're running into your basic inability to understand English again. Though I suspect, like the deafness of Basil Fawlty's maddening Brexiteerish guest, that comes and goes according to convenience.

    Please read again what I wrote:
    "But that means, other things being equal, the cost of any goods or services purchased from other countries will rise by 33%."

    Please concentrate really hard, particularly on the phrases "other things being equal" and "purchased from other countries" (hint: that means not purchased from a retailer in the UK). Got it now?

    But anyway, your answer to the question seems to be that retailers, or other businesses in the supply chain, will effectively absorb that extra 33% which has to be paid for goods and services from abroad, rather than passing it on to the consumer - or will pass on only a "marginal" part of the extra cost. So, magically, there will be no inflationary consequence of a 25% drop in sterling. Is that what you are saying?
    No I'm not saying that. I explained what I said and if you don't understand it I will explain it further.

    COGS or Cost Of Goods Sold is only one element in the price you pay. Often it can actually be a surprisingly small element. A retailer [and consumers do buy from retailers not from other countries] that is selling you a good will have other factors involved in their supply chain and other factors involved in their business, not all of which will be imported. And the fact that you said "other things being equal" as opposed to what you think it means, will mean they MUST still have elements from the UK in their price.

    For instance at its most basic level a retailer that you shop with must have staff. Those staff will be paid in pounds sterling. When you said "other things being equal" are their wages going up 33%?
    A retailer that you shop with will have rent to pay, when you said "other things being equal" is their rent going up 33%?
    A retailer that you shop with will have rates [corporate equivalent of Council Tax] to pay, when you said "other things being equal" are their rates going up 33%?

    Etc, etc, etc - there are a lot of fixed costs that are in sterling, COGS is only one element in their price.

    Finally the retailer will be making a margin. Now you've assumed that the only option is the price goes up 33% or the business makes a smaller margin. However even if all costs did go up 33% [which is obviously not the case] if the price went up 33% then the businesses cash profit margin is also going up up 33%. When you said all else being equal were you meaning businesses cash profit margins would go up 33%?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,893
    If as being reported this blackout is not just the South East and London that is quite some failure ... or a malicious act.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    Dadge said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    It will vary from place to place. Watson may well benefit for example, but Chris Williamson and co? no chance.
    Tom Watson? Seriously?

    He may be a voice of sanity on Labour's current travails with racism but let us not forget he is also a treacherous, dishonest bully with a track record of fake news and incompetence.

    It has come to something when he looks a more reasonable option than the official leader.

    Anyway if Labour lose WBW then it doesn't matter who votes for them, they're still finished.
    WBE. WBW is my namesake's fiefdom.
    Just testing :smile:

    If the conservatives do want to target a seat round there, WBW would surely actually be more productive than WBE.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,893
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    It will vary from place to place. Watson may well benefit for example, but Chris Williamson and co? no chance.
    Sounds like your hoping that's the case
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    And this can only be compensated for by the presence of BXP candidates taking votes off the Tories. Farage is the kingmaker.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    It will vary from place to place. Watson may well benefit for example, but Chris Williamson and co? no chance.
    Tom Watson? Seriously?

    He may be a voice of sanity on Labour's current travails with racism but let us not forget he is also a treacherous, dishonest bully with a track record of fake news and incompetence.

    It has come to something when he looks a more reasonable option than the official leader.

    Anyway if Labour lose WBW then it doesn't matter who votes for them, they're still finished.
    Sure, his Pedofinder general schtick was more than a bit iffy, but he makes up for it with his fight with the anti semites and for a #peoplesvote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    edited August 9
    Floater said:

    If as being reported this blackout is not just the South East and London that is quite some failure ... or a malicious act.

    Newcastle and Exeter have both been affected, as has Winchester. So it is countrywide but not everywhere.

    It sounds as though the problem is a power surge that caused the network to overload and therefore triggered a reduction in current. Nobody's saying what caused it yet.

    Edit - also an outage in Swansea, just 13 homes.

    Whatever is going on it's bloody weird.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    Dadge said:

    HYUFD 's point above about a big reduction in LDs tactical voting for LAB is spot on. That will be reduced markedly.

    And this can only be compensated for by the presence of BXP candidates taking votes off the Tories. Farage is the kingmaker.
    I wonder if that's a comfortable place to be in. We had two of those in the 15th century. One died at Barnet and the other got trapped by a rainstorm before his napper was removed in Salisbury marketplace.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 7,893

    Anyone affected by this?

    Major power failure affecting trains and airports
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49300025

    Interesting to read how widespread the power cuts are, right across the country. Without getting all conspiracy theorist, it doesn't actually sound like your run of the mill storm effects. Or is there a fundamental issue with thet setup at the National Grid?
    It does seem strange that it impacts Newcastle, areas of the Midlands, London and parts of South East.

    we are ok in North Essex right now but am glad I worked from home today.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726
    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    If as being reported this blackout is not just the South East and London that is quite some failure ... or a malicious act.

    Newcastle and Exeter have both been affected, as has Winchester. So it is countrywide but not everywhere.

    It sounds as though the problem is a power surge that caused the network to overload and therefore triggered a reduction in current. Nobody's saying what caused it yet.

    Edit - also an outage in Swansea, just 13 homes.

    Whatever is going on it's bloody weird.
    The Guardian have quoted a National Grid spokesperson talking about issues at two power generators.

    The St Jude's Day storm knocked one of the nuclear power plants (possibly Sizewell) off the grid, but the pumped storage plants spun up and the grid coped. Losing two generators at about the same time may have been too much to handle.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726
    Incidentally, if that is the cause, then it's a point in favour of distributed generation from renewables.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    If as being reported this blackout is not just the South East and London that is quite some failure ... or a malicious act.

    Newcastle and Exeter have both been affected, as has Winchester. So it is countrywide but not everywhere.

    It sounds as though the problem is a power surge that caused the network to overload and therefore triggered a reduction in current. Nobody's saying what caused it yet.

    Edit - also an outage in Swansea, just 13 homes.

    Whatever is going on it's bloody weird.
    The Guardian have quoted a National Grid spokesperson talking about issues at two power generators.

    The St Jude's Day storm knocked one of the nuclear power plants (possibly Sizewell) off the grid, but the pumped storage plants spun up and the grid coped. Losing two generators at about the same time may have been too much to handle.
    Given that we are slated to lose more generating capacity as demand inexorably rises due to changing methods of transport and heating, that isn't a comforting thought.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 5,877
    There's been little comment on here yet about the remarks by Joe Moore on The World at One about the means by which Parliament might stop Brexit.

    In short, he thought the VONC route was possible but difficult. Indeed the indications were that Boris/Cummings didn't really fear that much. They were much more anxious about the House seizing control of the Legislative Agenda. This would enable it pass legislation binding the PM.

    Anybody else hear it? He seemed to know what he was talking about. I tried name checking him on Wiki but without success. I think he was advisor to Theresa May on Legislative Affairs, but I didn't quite catch the title.
This discussion has been closed.