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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All Eyes on Iowa – the first state to decide

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 11 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All Eyes on Iowa – the first state to decide

If you want to know who the Democratic nominee to be President will be, watch Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because it is extremely rare for the eventual candidate to fail to win one of those two two states.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,025
    First! Like Joe Biden..
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120
    Second, like New Hampshire.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,441

    First! Like Joe Biden..

    If Iowa had a conventional primary then. Biden would be in with a better chance. It doesn't
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,025
    Its been mentioned before in the mainstream media over the years but the Amish community could tip the balance in the General Election when one looks at the states with the biggest communities:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Amish_population

    Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have more Amish population than the margin Trump won the states by IIRC. Some of the population might not be of voting age but in incredibly close election contests given the number of voters in these three states they could be pivotal if they vote for Trump or decide to sit it out.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 152
    dixiedean said:

    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.

    I wonder if Iowa being rural and white helps the Democrats. It means they pick candidates that have mastered speaking to people inclined against them, while Republican candidates can get through just by playing to the base.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    Also, possibly important to mention the size of the Dem field. Survival alone will be important. Bill Clinton emerged from a large field by exceeding expectations in Iowa, then running an unexpected second in New Hampshire. Then winning the third in his own Southern region (South Carolina from memory).
    So Iowa may not prove that crucial this time. Although it will eliminate several no-hopers. It will be important to establish momentum, and to point to a front runner in each "lane".
    Mayor Pete is the resident mid-Westerner, so I agree he could do well. But he HAS to.
    Bernie has New Hampshire coming up, his neighbouring State.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,025

    First! Like Joe Biden..

    If Iowa had a conventional primary then. Biden would be in with a better chance. It doesn't
    I see what you mean it is fairly complex:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    Gabs2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.

    I wonder if Iowa being rural and white helps the Democrats. It means they pick candidates that have mastered speaking to people inclined against them, while Republican candidates can get through just by playing to the base.
    Possibly. Although Obama won the State twice in the GE. It is not an archetypical Red State.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,388

    First! Like Joe Biden..

    If Iowa had a conventional primary then. Biden would be in with a better chance. It doesn't
    I read somewhere they were going to introduce electronic voting in Iowa. How on earth does that work for a caucus?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    edited August 11
    Gabs2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.

    I wonder if Iowa being rural and white helps the Democrats. It means they pick candidates that have mastered speaking to people inclined against them, while Republican candidates can get through just by playing to the base.
    Iowa is not as Republican as it seems, it voted for Dukakis in 1988 and Gore in 2000 for example, in fact it has only voted for the Republican candidate twice in the last 30 years, for George W Bush in 2004 and for Donald Trump in 2016.


  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,562
    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.

    I wonder if Iowa being rural and white helps the Democrats. It means they pick candidates that have mastered speaking to people inclined against them, while Republican candidates can get through just by playing to the base.
    Iowa is not as Republican as it seems, it voted for Dukakis in 1988 and Gore in 2000 for example, in fact it has only voted for the Republican candidate twice in the last 30 years, for George W Bush in 2004 and for Donald Trump in 2016.


    That's interesting. What makes it more mixed then given the demographics say it should be a red state?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,388
    dixiedean said:

    Gabs2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.

    I wonder if Iowa being rural and white helps the Democrats. It means they pick candidates that have mastered speaking to people inclined against them, while Republican candidates can get through just by playing to the base.
    Possibly. Although Obama won the State twice in the GE. It is not an archetypical Red State.
    Didn’t he *only* win Des Moines and Sioux City but that was enough?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    edited August 11

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.

    I wonder if Iowa being rural and white helps the Democrats. It means they pick candidates that have mastered speaking to people inclined against them, while Republican candidates can get through just by playing to the base.
    Iowa is not as Republican as it seems, it voted for Dukakis in 1988 and Gore in 2000 for example, in fact it has only voted for the Republican candidate twice in the last 30 years, for George W Bush in 2004 and for Donald Trump in 2016.


    That's interesting. What makes it more mixed then given the demographics say it should be a red state?
    Here is some info. Basically the farm crisis of the 80s moved it from Republican to swing. By diversifying the economy away from agriculture.
    https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/11/iowa-racially-homogeneous-but-politically-diverse/
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 279
    Do the Democrats actually have to convert Trump voters to win in 2020 or is winning back Obama supporters who didn't turn out for Hillary enough to make the difference?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    - “How acceptable or unacceptable would the following be to you?
    A Brexit where the UK has a clear break from the EU.”
    (net unacceptable)

    Wales +58
    N Ireland +51
    Scotland +44
    South of England +30
    Midlands +25
    North of England +21
    London +19

    SNP-voters +88
    Lib Dem-voters +82
    PC-voters +62
    Green-voters +53
    Lab-voters +36
    Con-voters -12
    Brexit Party-voters -94

    UK total +28

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx

    Con and Bxp voters clearly out of synk with the entire UK.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,689
    "The Queen is reportedly 'dismayed' by the current political class's 'inability to govern'"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/10/queen-reportedly-dismayed-current-political-classs-inability/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.

    I wonder if Iowa being rural and white helps the Democrats. It means they pick candidates that have mastered speaking to people inclined against them, while Republican candidates can get through just by playing to the base.
    Iowa is not as Republican as it seems, it voted for Dukakis in 1988 and Gore in 2000 for example, in fact it has only voted for the Republican candidate twice in the last 30 years, for George W Bush in 2004 and for Donald Trump in 2016.


    That's interesting. What makes it more mixed then given the demographics say it should be a red state?
    Its population is actually now predominantly urban and its economy includes biotech and government services with no doubt plenty of Democratic voters

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954

    - “How acceptable or unacceptable would the following be to you?
    A Brexit where the UK has a clear break from the EU.”
    (net unacceptable)

    Wales +58
    N Ireland +51
    Scotland +44
    South of England +30
    Midlands +25
    North of England +21
    London +19

    SNP-voters +88
    Lib Dem-voters +82
    PC-voters +62
    Green-voters +53
    Lab-voters +36
    Con-voters -12
    Brexit Party-voters -94

    UK total +28

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx

    Con and Bxp voters clearly out of synk with the entire UK.

    Alas I can't stay up to see how HYUFD spins these data into support for a No Deal Brexit.

    Night all.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906

    Its been mentioned before in the mainstream media over the years but the Amish community could tip the balance in the General Election when one looks at the states with the biggest communities:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Amish_population

    Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have more Amish population than the margin Trump won the states by IIRC. Some of the population might not be of voting age but in incredibly close election contests given the number of voters in these three states they could be pivotal if they vote for Trump or decide to sit it out.

    My knowledge of Amish political leanings comes from 'Witness' and based on that - strong sense of community, egalitarianism, hatred of bling, an old school puritan morality - there is no way they would be turning out for Donald Trump.

    If Harrison Ford was on the ballot however ...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    Thinking back to Antifrank’s morning thread, I’ve been studying Shadsy’s prices, and he also seems to be assessing that the combined Con+Lab vote share is going to be about 60% (Con low 30s + Lab high 20s).

    This being the case, both of those parties are going to get fewer seats than Baxter calculates.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    edited August 11

    - “How acceptable or unacceptable would the following be to you?
    A Brexit where the UK has a clear break from the EU.”
    (net unacceptable)

    Wales +58
    N Ireland +51
    Scotland +44
    South of England +30
    Midlands +25
    North of England +21
    London +19

    SNP-voters +88
    Lib Dem-voters +82
    PC-voters +62
    Green-voters +53
    Lab-voters +36
    Con-voters -12
    Brexit Party-voters -94

    UK total +28

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx

    Con and Bxp voters clearly out of synk with the entire UK.

    Rubbish.

    In the same poll on Q306 it asks 'If Boris is unable to make changes to the Withdrawal Agreement before October 31st what should he do?'

    46% say Leave the EU with No Deal.

    12% say Delay Brexit until a further Deal can be agreed with the House of Commons.

    29% say Cancel Brexit and decide to Remain in the EU after all.


    So No Deal is on more than further extension and Revoke and Remain combined across the UK.


    In the Midlands 50% back No Deal, in the North 48% back No Deal and in the South and Wales 49% back No Deal ie more than the UK average.


    Even in Scotland an astonishing 37% now back going straight to No Deal, more than the 32% who back Revoke. Only in London and Northern Ireland is Revoke preferred to No Deal by 36% to 34% and 38% to 37% respectively.


    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    edited August 11
    dodrade said:

    Do the Democrats actually have to convert Trump voters to win in 2020 or is winning back Obama supporters who didn't turn out for Hillary enough to make the difference?

    Just googled that. Trump got the highest GOP vote ever. Just shy of 63m. Hilary got 65.8m, almost the same as Obama in 2012. But he got 69.5m in 2008, comfortably the highest ever for any Presidential candidate.
    So. The key is getting back the c 3.7 m voters who didn't vote for Hilary or Obama in '12. And where they come from of course...
    The Dems have won the popular vote 6 out of the last 7. But only 4 of the EC.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883

    - “How acceptable or unacceptable would the following be to you?
    A Brexit where the UK has a clear break from the EU.”
    (net unacceptable)

    Wales +58
    N Ireland +51
    Scotland +44
    South of England +30
    Midlands +25
    North of England +21
    London +19

    SNP-voters +88
    Lib Dem-voters +82
    PC-voters +62
    Green-voters +53
    Lab-voters +36
    Con-voters -12
    Brexit Party-voters -94

    UK total +28

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx

    Con and Bxp voters clearly out of synk with the entire UK.

    Alas I can't stay up to see how HYUFD spins these data into support for a No Deal Brexit.

    Night all.
    You wouldn't have had time to brush your teeth!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,441
    edited August 11
    Charles said:

    First! Like Joe Biden..

    If Iowa had a conventional primary then. Biden would be in with a better chance. It doesn't
    I read somewhere they were going to introduce electronic voting in Iowa. How on earth does that work for a caucus?
    It doesn't.

    People go to a precinct meeting, there are 1600 of them, and they have a discussion about the contenders and then there is voting with, I'm told, backers of the different contenders clustering in different parts of the room or counting.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,441
    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023
    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.

    I wonder if Iowa being rural and white helps the Democrats. It means they pick candidates that have mastered speaking to people inclined against them, while Republican candidates can get through just by playing to the base.
    Iowa is not as Republican as it seems, it voted for Dukakis in 1988 and Gore in 2000 for example, in fact it has only voted for the Republican candidate twice in the last 30 years, for George W Bush in 2004 and for Donald Trump in 2016.


    That's interesting. What makes it more mixed then given the demographics say it should be a red state?
    Its population is actually now predominantly urban and its economy includes biotech and government services with no doubt plenty of Democratic voters

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa
    Iowa City has an excellent university with a strong biomedical research record.

    Incidentally Warren is not an Ivory tower East coaster. She was born and raised in Oklahoma, moving away when she married aged 20.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023
    AndyJS said:

    "The Queen is reportedly 'dismayed' by the current political class's 'inability to govern'"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/10/queen-reportedly-dismayed-current-political-classs-inability/

    Old news - 2016
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988

    AndyJS said:

    "The Queen is reportedly 'dismayed' by the current political class's 'inability to govern'"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/10/queen-reportedly-dismayed-current-political-classs-inability/

    Old news - 2016
    Do you think that the political class has refuted or confirmed her supposed 2016 opinion since?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    - “How acceptable or unacceptable would the following be to you?
    A Brexit where the UK has a clear break from the EU.”
    (net unacceptable)

    Wales +58
    N Ireland +51
    Scotland +44
    South of England +30
    Midlands +25
    North of England +21
    London +19

    SNP-voters +88
    Lib Dem-voters +82
    PC-voters +62
    Green-voters +53
    Lab-voters +36
    Con-voters -12
    Brexit Party-voters -94

    UK total +28

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx

    Con and Bxp voters clearly out of synk with the entire UK.

    London is the region that would find a clean break with the EU least unacceptable?

    Surely something wrong there.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    In which Kate Hoey doesn’t realise she’s been taken for a Remoaner...

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988
    Chris said:

    - “How acceptable or unacceptable would the following be to you?
    A Brexit where the UK has a clear break from the EU.”
    (net unacceptable)

    Wales +58
    N Ireland +51
    Scotland +44
    South of England +30
    Midlands +25
    North of England +21
    London +19

    SNP-voters +88
    Lib Dem-voters +82
    PC-voters +62
    Green-voters +53
    Lab-voters +36
    Con-voters -12
    Brexit Party-voters -94

    UK total +28

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx

    Con and Bxp voters clearly out of synk with the entire UK.

    London is the region that would find a clean break with the EU least unacceptable?

    Surely something wrong there.
    How do opinium define their regions?

  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I must have missed the one about stroking his nipple with raspberry and lychee ripple.

    Do you have a link?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,025
    kinabalu said:

    Its been mentioned before in the mainstream media over the years but the Amish community could tip the balance in the General Election when one looks at the states with the biggest communities:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Amish_population

    Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have more Amish population than the margin Trump won the states by IIRC. Some of the population might not be of voting age but in incredibly close election contests given the number of voters in these three states they could be pivotal if they vote for Trump or decide to sit it out.

    My knowledge of Amish political leanings comes from 'Witness' and based on that - strong sense of community, egalitarianism, hatred of bling, an old school puritan morality - there is no way they would be turning out for Donald Trump.

    If Harrison Ford was on the ballot however ...
    IIRC, the Amish community were seen as a way for G W Bush to win in 2000 and 2004 in some states. I don't have any impericle evidence to affirm whether this was actualised into votes. I seem to remember they were more amenable to the GOP than your impression via film may imply. The point I was making was that given the small margins in the electoral colloge in three states in 2016, it may be a way for democrats to suppress turnout in the Amish community by focusing on Trumps environmental and climate change denial for instance. Winning elections is not just about persuading people to vote for a party but sometimes giving voters a reason not to support an opponent!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906
    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Never mind about the wretched Boris, our topic here is Iowa and the big news is that John Terry - yes, he of "in a skirt" fame - won it in 2004, and then won New Hampshire too.

    So, 2020, Elizabeth Warren. QED.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    Chris said:

    - “How acceptable or unacceptable would the following be to you?
    A Brexit where the UK has a clear break from the EU.”
    (net unacceptable)

    Wales +58
    N Ireland +51
    Scotland +44
    South of England +30
    Midlands +25
    North of England +21
    London +19

    SNP-voters +88
    Lib Dem-voters +82
    PC-voters +62
    Green-voters +53
    Lab-voters +36
    Con-voters -12
    Brexit Party-voters -94

    UK total +28

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx

    Con and Bxp voters clearly out of synk with the entire UK.

    London is the region that would find a clean break with the EU least unacceptable?

    Surely something wrong there.
    Nope.

    52% of Londoners find No Deal unacceptable.
    33% of Londoners find No Deal acceptable.

    Net unacceptable +19

    (Table V401)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883

    In which Kate Hoey doesn’t realise she’s been taken for a Remoaner...

    Whatever it is, it is totally out of order. Threats, whether direct or indirect, of violence over the Internet ought to be stamped out. You wouldn't get away with it in person.
    Possibly Boris and Priti could make use of their extra prison places this way.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,162
    edited August 11

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    edited August 11

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Not as scared shitless as I would be trying to stop Brexit when 73% of the country oppose you
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Iowa is not a particularly small state. 26th in area and 31st in population. So, pretty much average. Rural and white, yes. Apart from that quibble, good piece.

    I wonder if Iowa being rural and white helps the Democrats. It means they pick candidates that have mastered speaking to people inclined against them, while Republican candidates can get through just by playing to the base.
    Iowa is not as Republican as it seems, it voted for Dukakis in 1988 and Gore in 2000 for example, in fact it has only voted for the Republican candidate twice in the last 30 years, for George W Bush in 2004 and for Donald Trump in 2016.


    That's interesting. What makes it more mixed then given the demographics say it should be a red state?
    Its population is actually now predominantly urban and its economy includes biotech and government services with no doubt plenty of Democratic voters

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa
    Iowa City has an excellent university with a strong biomedical research record.

    Incidentally Warren is not an Ivory tower East coaster. She was born and raised in Oklahoma, moving away when she married aged 20.
    John Kerry was born in Colorado, being a Massachusetts Senator though the Bush campaign still successfully portrayed him as a liberal elitist
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120

    Chris said:

    - “How acceptable or unacceptable would the following be to you?
    A Brexit where the UK has a clear break from the EU.”
    (net unacceptable)

    Wales +58
    N Ireland +51
    Scotland +44
    South of England +30
    Midlands +25
    North of England +21
    London +19

    SNP-voters +88
    Lib Dem-voters +82
    PC-voters +62
    Green-voters +53
    Lab-voters +36
    Con-voters -12
    Brexit Party-voters -94

    UK total +28

    https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/VI-08-08-19-Tables.xlsx

    Con and Bxp voters clearly out of synk with the entire UK.

    London is the region that would find a clean break with the EU least unacceptable?

    Surely something wrong there.
    Nope.

    52% of Londoners find No Deal unacceptable.
    33% of Londoners find No Deal acceptable.

    Net unacceptable +19

    (Table V401)
    Yes, he's saying London should be top of the table on that metric, not last. He's right.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023
    Foxy said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The Queen is reportedly 'dismayed' by the current political class's 'inability to govern'"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/10/queen-reportedly-dismayed-current-political-classs-inability/

    Old news - 2016
    Do you think that the political class has refuted or confirmed her supposed 2016 opinion since?
    I suspect she's gone way beyond 'dismay' by now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    Having googled, some food for thought for those who have ventured the Dems need to have a white male candidate. Largest popular vote in history.
    1) Obama 2008.
    2) Obama 2012.
    3) Hilary 2016.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,162
    edited August 11
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. Still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because how could he not... And off we go.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    Which is not something thats within his power to... oh why am I bothering.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,210
    dixiedean said:

    Having googled, some food for thought for those who have ventured the Dems need to have a white male candidate. Largest popular vote in history.
    1) Obama 2008.
    2) Obama 2012.
    3) Hilary 2016.

    I agree they don't need a white male, but that's a very obviously flawed metric
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. Still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    As already discussed ad nauseam, Corbyn could simply say he'd agree provided Johnson requested an extension.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906

    IIRC, the Amish community were seen as a way for G W Bush to win in 2000 and 2004 in some states. I don't have any impericle evidence to affirm whether this was actualised into votes. I seem to remember they were more amenable to the GOP than your impression via film may imply. The point I was making was that given the small margins in the electoral colloge in three states in 2016, it may be a way for democrats to suppress turnout in the Amish community by focusing on Trumps environmental and climate change denial for instance. Winning elections is not just about persuading people to vote for a party but sometimes giving voters a reason not to support an opponent!

    Done a quick google and, yes, it is as you say. A significant target group. But I'm hoping that Trump will be defeated by a margin far greater than the expected number of Amish voters. I'm looking for worst case 5 million.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    edited August 11
    Excellent header. Good to get focused on US election.

    One small point. iirc Iowa will allow Internet virtual attendance at the caucus (for the first time). So no more snow walking for some voters. Could up the vote rate?

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    Which raises the question. What will the Tory manifesto be? What will the LD manifesto be? What will TBP manifesto be?
    We pretty much know the Labour manifesto.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
    Indeed.

    That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    If people are saying that, then of course it gives Corbyn every justification for insisting on an extension before backing the vote. Because once the vote had passed, Johnson would be in a position to choose the date of the election.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 15,162
    edited August 11
    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. Still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    As already discussed ad nauseam, Corbyn could simply say he'd agree provided Johnson requested an extension.
    Jezza will agree in all circumstances.... He could be removed by the PLP at any moment... Realisiclly his time is rapidly running out to become PM (even the VONC is risky for him in case theres some mad Remainer stich up that freezes him out)

    No, if Boris makes him the offer of a GE I can't see him pissing about making demands.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    So, it is not within his power to "call" a GE after a VoNC. The power rests with the FTPA (gggrhhh!) and if no one else can cobble together a government, then he has the power to decide a date.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    A few months ago I speculated the nightmare scenario for the Tories would be a No Deal Brexit during a GE campaign.
    Now it seems to be the plan.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    Which raises the question. What will the Tory manifesto be? What will the LD manifesto be? What will TBP manifesto be?
    We pretty much know the Labour manifesto.
    Tory manifesto, Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st plus tax cuts and spending splurge, LD manifesto Stop Brexit, TBP manifesto No Deal Brexit without passing go, Labour manifesto Have not got a clue on Brexit but tax the rich and end austerity and renationalise the utilities.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,441

    Excellent header. Good to get focused on US election.

    One small point. iirc Iowa will allow Internet virtual attendance at the caucus. So no more snow walking for some voters. Could up the vote rate?

    But even online you have to participate in the caucus meetings. This is more than simply going someplace to vote
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 1,274
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    So, No Deal in the middle of a GE campaign. What a bunch of utter shits.

    You will reap what you sow.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
    Indeed.

    That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
    That 37% is 11.5 points of their 31% voting intention figure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    edited August 11
    dixiedean said:

    A few months ago I speculated the nightmare scenario for the Tories would be a No Deal Brexit during a GE campaign.
    Now it seems to be the plan.

    A really interesting test will be if Johnson puts down a motion for a GE in say late September. Needs 2/3 of house. Labour have spent so many millions of hours saying we want an election they could hardly vote it down.

    But iirc Johnson decides the date.

    It would be 1st November or afterwards.

    Of course Corbyn then gets what he wants - a Tory No Deal.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
    Indeed.

    That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
    Why? 78% of Tory voters say we should go ahead with No Deal on October 31st, only 42% of Labour voters say we should cancel Brexit and Remain in the EU
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    Boris can't 'call a general election'; he'll need opposition support, which will not be forthcoming if No Deal Brexit is likely to fall in the middle of the campaign.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    Which raises the question. What will the Tory manifesto be? What will the LD manifesto be? What will TBP manifesto be?
    We pretty much know the Labour manifesto.
    Tory manifesto, Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st plus tax cuts and spending splurge, LD manifesto Stop Brexit, TBP manifesto No Deal Brexit without passing go, Labour manifesto Have not got a clue on Brexit but tax the rich and end austerity and renationalise the utilities.
    You can't have a Brexit now/ Stop Brexit position in a November manifesto after we have Brexited in October!
    Which was my point. You have to answer a completely different set of questions. There is no sign that anyone of those parties have put a great deal of thinking into what comes next.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    dixiedean said:

    A few months ago I speculated the nightmare scenario for the Tories would be a No Deal Brexit during a GE campaign.
    Now it seems to be the plan.

    A really interesting test will be if Johnson puts down a motion for a GE in say late September. Needs 2/3 of house. Labour have spent so many millions of hours saying we want an election they could hardly vote it down.

    But iirc Johnson decides the date.

    It would be 1st November or afterwards.

    Of course Corbyn then gets what he wants - a Tory No Deal.

    Which sees the Brexit Party vote collapse in the Tories favour and Labour votes still going LD leading to a Tory majority
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906
    HYUFD said:

    Tory manifesto, Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st plus tax cuts and spending splurge, LD manifesto Stop Brexit, TBP manifesto No Deal Brexit without passing go, Labour manifesto Have not got a clue on Brexit but tax the rich and end austerity and renationalise the utilities.

    Those manifestos (other than Labour's) make no sense for an election if No Deal has happened by polling day.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    If people are saying that, then of course it gives Corbyn every justification for insisting on an extension before backing the vote. Because once the vote had passed, Johnson would be in a position to choose the date of the election.
    This.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    GIN1138 said:

    Chris said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. Still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    As already discussed ad nauseam, Corbyn could simply say he'd agree provided Johnson requested an extension.
    Jezza will agree in all circumstances.... He could be removed by the PLP at any moment... Realisiclly his time is rapidly running out to become PM (even the VONC is risky for him in case theres some mad Remainer stich up that freezes him out)

    No, if Boris makes him the offer of a GE I can't see him pissing about making demands.
    That would require two thirds of MPs to put into Johnson's hands the power to ensure No Deal by choosing an election date of 31 October or later.

    If two thirds of MPs were willing to do that, why would he need to have an immediate election at all?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
    Indeed.

    That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
    That 37% is 11.5 points of their 31% voting intention figure.
    As long as the overwhelming majority of that 37% hates Corbyn just a bit more than No Deal, everything is absolutely fine.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883

    dixiedean said:

    Having googled, some food for thought for those who have ventured the Dems need to have a white male candidate. Largest popular vote in history.
    1) Obama 2008.
    2) Obama 2012.
    3) Hilary 2016.

    I agree they don't need a white male, but that's a very obviously flawed metric
    Of course it is!
    But in another way it isn't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 9,988
    dixiedean said:

    A few months ago I speculated the nightmare scenario for the Tories would be a No Deal Brexit during a GE campaign.
    Now it seems to be the plan.

    No Deal could have worked as a clean Brexit if we had started preparing in July 2016. We didn't, and haven't done much even now.

    To have no one on the tiller as the ship is at the stormiest part of the passage is insane. It guarantees even greater uncertainty as no one could predict the election outcome, or the Brexit outcome. It is the worst possible way to Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    Which raises the question. What will the Tory manifesto be? What will the LD manifesto be? What will TBP manifesto be?
    We pretty much know the Labour manifesto.
    Tory manifesto, Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st plus tax cuts and spending splurge, LD manifesto Stop Brexit, TBP manifesto No Deal Brexit without passing go, Labour manifesto Have not got a clue on Brexit but tax the rich and end austerity and renationalise the utilities.
    You can't have a Brexit now/ Stop Brexit position in a November manifesto after we have Brexited in October!
    Which was my point. You have to answer a completely different set of questions. There is no sign that anyone of those parties have put a great deal of thinking into what comes next.
    You can if you want to commit to that Brexit or reverse it and rejoin the EU
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 1,120
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory manifesto, Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st plus tax cuts and spending splurge, LD manifesto Stop Brexit, TBP manifesto No Deal Brexit without passing go, Labour manifesto Have not got a clue on Brexit but tax the rich and end austerity and renationalise the utilities.

    Those manifestos (other than Labour's) make no sense for an election if No Deal has happened by polling day.
    Watch Labour campaign on a manifesto of reversing No Deal anyway.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
    Not "now" though. Several weeks away and at a date decided by Johnson.

    This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.

    Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.

    Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    Biden is not getting great press.
    This from the supposedly friendly WaPo...

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-descend-on-iowa--with-renewed-anxiety/2019/08/10/18e02624-baad-11e9-a091-6a96e67d9cce_story.html
    Such episodes give some Democrats pause. As Arlene Davis, 67, a retired schoolteacher from Indianola, waited to hear Biden speak the other night, she panned his candidacy so far, especially his debate performances.

    “I was extremely disappointed. I expect more of him. He was uninspired,” she said. “He’s trying to ride Obama’s coattails instead of blazing his own path to distinguish himself from others. Gee, it was nice he was vice president. However, he is not vice president now, and if he wants to stand out, he has to do it soon, on his own two feet.” Davis added: “I want to know what he thinks, not what he did with Obama. That’s why I’m here.”...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
    Indeed.

    That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
    Why? 78% of Tory voters say we should go ahead with No Deal on October 31st, only 42% of Labour voters say we should cancel Brexit and Remain in the EU
    I think the answer to your puzzlement is to read more carefully.

    The 78% comes from a question which starts by saying that Johnson wants to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, and then asks what should happen if he is unable to. I'm sure the difference in emphasis is enough to account for the discrepancy of 5% between that figure and the 37% unacceptable (which oddly includes 23% who think it would be "somewhat" unacceptable).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    A few months ago I speculated the nightmare scenario for the Tories would be a No Deal Brexit during a GE campaign.
    Now it seems to be the plan.

    No Deal could have worked as a clean Brexit if we had started preparing in July 2016. We didn't, and haven't done much even now.

    To have no one on the tiller as the ship is at the stormiest part of the passage is insane. It guarantees even greater uncertainty as no one could predict the election outcome, or the Brexit outcome. It is the worst possible way to Brexit.
    Surely the answer for Johnson is to agree to an A50 extension until the week after the GE and then campaign on 'only I will take us out come what may, on that new date'.

    If he wins on that then fair enough, the country has effectively voted for No Deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
    Not "now" though. Several weeks away and at a date decided by Johnson.

    This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.

    Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.

    Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
    If No Deal goes badly the voters will be more likely to call for the LDs than Corbyn Marxism anyway, though provided Boris delivers Brexit he should be OK for the win in an autumn election if not re election again in 5 years time
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
    Indeed.

    That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
    That 37% is 11.5 points of their 31% voting intention figure.
    As long as the overwhelming majority of that 37% hates Corbyn just a bit more than No Deal, everything is absolutely fine.
    Even then the poll probably doesn't give the Tories a majority.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
    Indeed.

    That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
    Why? 78% of Tory voters say we should go ahead with No Deal on October 31st, only 42% of Labour voters say we should cancel Brexit and Remain in the EU
    I think the answer to your puzzlement is to read more carefully.

    The 78% comes from a question which starts by saying that Johnson wants to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, and then asks what should happen if he is unable to. I'm sure the difference in emphasis is enough to account for the discrepancy of 5% between that figure and the 37% unacceptable (which oddly includes 23% who think it would be "somewhat" unacceptable).
    Sorry - it's a 15% discrepancy, but I think the same argument applies.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
    Not "now" though. Several weeks away and at a date decided by Johnson.

    This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.

    Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.

    Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
    Except it's Corbyn's (and Johnson's) MPs that have to support the FTPA motion. Corbyn might be happy with a Tory No Deal (I think that's a fallacy actually) but his MPs will not vote for a GE if No Deal is going to happen during the campaign.

    In any event, Johnson would be totally mad to have No Deal happen during the campaign - he must be aware there is at least a small chance (I think a large chance) for some serious and unpleasant disruption to occur at the point of a No Deal crash-out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
    Not "now" though. Several weeks away and at a date decided by Johnson.

    This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.

    Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.

    Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
    If No Deal goes badly the voters will be more likely to call for the LDs than Corbyn Marxism anyway, though provided Boris delivers Brexit he should be OK for the win in an autumn election if not re election again in 5 years time
    I don't know how you can be confident of this. If Johnson squeezes Farage's vote or does a Coupon, then yes he will be ok. But that is a big if.

    Meanwhile he is losing 20+ seats to LibDems in more Remainer parts of SE and SW.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    edited August 11
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
    Indeed.

    That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
    Why? 78% of Tory voters say we should go ahead with No Deal on October 31st, only 42% of Labour voters say we should cancel Brexit and Remain in the EU
    I think the answer to your puzzlement is to read more carefully.

    The 78% comes from a question which starts by saying that Johnson wants to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, and then asks what should happen if he is unable to. I'm sure the difference in emphasis is enough to account for the discrepancy of 5% between that figure and the 37% unacceptable (which oddly includes 23% who think it would be "somewhat" unacceptable).
    Yet even on those numbers 59% of all voters say revoking Brexit and staying in the EU would be completely unacceptable, including 55% of Labour voters who say it would be unacceptable.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    Which raises the question. What will the Tory manifesto be? What will the LD manifesto be? What will TBP manifesto be?
    We pretty much know the Labour manifesto.
    Tory manifesto, Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st plus tax cuts and spending splurge, LD manifesto Stop Brexit, TBP manifesto No Deal Brexit without passing go, Labour manifesto Have not got a clue on Brexit but tax the rich and end austerity and renationalise the utilities.
    You can't have a Brexit now/ Stop Brexit position in a November manifesto after we have Brexited in October!
    Which was my point. You have to answer a completely different set of questions. There is no sign that anyone of those parties have put a great deal of thinking into what comes next.
    You can if you want to commit to that Brexit or reverse it and rejoin the EU
    "Commit to that Brexit" has a1945 election written all over it. What does that even mean? The psychological Rubicon will have been crossed. We will have Brexited.
    No evidence that the LDs will have a unified position on Rejoin. Most people are heartily sick of hearing about it. Re-opening the question for another 5 years is not likely to be spectacularly successful.
    Meanwhile, Corbyn will blame all issues/problems on "botched Tory Brexit", while actually having some policies to appeal to a large sector of the Brexit vote.
    If that is the Tory plan, I think it is nuts. Especially if the fruit of Brexit is large tax cuts for the well off.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
    Not "now" though. Several weeks away and at a date decided by Johnson.

    This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.

    Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.

    Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
    If No Deal goes badly the voters will be more likely to call for the LDs than Corbyn Marxism anyway, though provided Boris delivers Brexit he should be OK for the win in an autumn election if not re election again in 5 years time
    I don't know how you can be confident of this. If Johnson squeezes Farage's vote or does a Coupon, then yes he will be ok. But that is a big if.

    Meanwhile he is losing 20+ seats to LibDems in more Remainer parts of SE and SW.
    And 10+ Scottish seats
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
    Not "now" though. Several weeks away and at a date decided by Johnson.

    This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.

    Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.

    Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
    Except it's Corbyn's (and Johnson's) MPs that have to support the FTPA motion. Corbyn might be happy with a Tory No Deal (I think that's a fallacy actually) but his MPs will not vote for a GE if No Deal is going to happen during the campaign.

    In any event, Johnson would be totally mad to have No Deal happen during the campaign - he must be aware there is at least a small chance (I think a large chance) for some serious and unpleasant disruption to occur at the point of a No Deal crash-out.
    I suppose if there's substance to the Independent story about "MPs taking control" it's possible that the Commons could force a request for an extension, and then there could be either a VONC or a 2/3 vote for an early election.

    I think if I were Johnson I wouldn't want to put too many obstacles in the way of that happening. Just enough to be convincing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    Not about Brexit, but may as well be:

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
    Not "now" though. Several weeks away and at a date decided by Johnson.

    This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.

    Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.

    Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
    If No Deal goes badly the voters will be more likely to call for the LDs than Corbyn Marxism anyway, though provided Boris delivers Brexit he should be OK for the win in an autumn election if not re election again in 5 years time
    I don't know how you can be confident of this. If Johnson squeezes Farage's vote or does a Coupon, then yes he will be ok. But that is a big if.

    Meanwhile he is losing 20+ seats to LibDems in more Remainer parts of SE and SW.
    He will, Comres has the Brexit Party collapsing to just 8% with No Deal and the Tories rising to 36%.

    The LDs will not be getting 20+ Tory seats on that Tory voteshare or anywhere near
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
    Not "now" though. Several weeks away and at a date decided by Johnson.

    This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.

    Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.

    Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
    If No Deal goes badly the voters will be more likely to call for the LDs than Corbyn Marxism anyway, though provided Boris delivers Brexit he should be OK for the win in an autumn election if not re election again in 5 years time
    I don't know how you can be confident of this. If Johnson squeezes Farage's vote or does a Coupon, then yes he will be ok. But that is a big if.

    Meanwhile he is losing 20+ seats to LibDems in more Remainer parts of SE and SW.
    And 10+ Scottish seats
    Indeed. Good point. Johnson will have to be bloody sure he can win midlands marginals to have a ghost.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is it me or are @HYUFD's posts increasingly sounding like the guys from Sunshine Desserts' product research dept. in The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin?

    I like how the numbers I report are “rubbish”, but the numbers he reports are gospel. They come from the exact same set of respondents.
    The poll also found 73% saying staying in the EU would be unacceptable but only 57% saying a clean break from the EU would be unacceptable
    Still doesn’t explain how the findings I report are “rubbish”.

    I’m glad you’re happy with the finding that 57% say No Deal is unacceptable. In your shoes I’d be scared shitless.
    Including 37% of Tory supporters.
    Indeed.

    That is the key variable that should terrify the Cons: over a third of their supporters absolutely detest No Deal.
    Why? 78% of Tory voters say we should go ahead with No Deal on October 31st, only 42% of Labour voters say we should cancel Brexit and Remain in the EU
    I think the answer to your puzzlement is to read more carefully.

    The 78% comes from a question which starts by saying that Johnson wants to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, and then asks what should happen if he is unable to. I'm sure the difference in emphasis is enough to account for the discrepancy of 5% between that figure and the 37% unacceptable (which oddly includes 23% who think it would be "somewhat" unacceptable).
    Yet even on those numbers 59% of all voters say revoking Brexit and staying in the EU would be completely unacceptable, including 55% of Labour voters who say it would be unacceptable.
    I don't think revoking comes into the picture (unless the EU refused an extension).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    edited August 11

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    Well as TM proved in 2017 he kind of does cause he just calls Jezza up and says:

    "Jezza it's Boris. You know that election you've been demanding for two years. Let's make it happen right now"

    And Jezza says:

    "Thanks Boris. Your on"

    And voila! :D
    Not "now" though. Several weeks away and at a date decided by Johnson.

    This is how No Deal catastrophe could happen. Two main party leaders collude to set a date of 1st Nov or later.

    Johnson gets to say he promised No Deal and we did No Deal.

    Corbyn gets his beloved LEXIT and also No Deal chaos and therefore a grateful population begging for his socialist revolution.
    If No Deal goes badly the voters will be more likely to call for the LDs than Corbyn Marxism anyway, though provided Boris delivers Brexit he should be OK for the win in an autumn election if not re election again in 5 years time
    I don't know how you can be confident of this. If Johnson squeezes Farage's vote or does a Coupon, then yes he will be ok. But that is a big if.

    Meanwhile he is losing 20+ seats to LibDems in more Remainer parts of SE and SW.
    And 10+ Scottish seats
    With the YouGov Scottish figures the Tories would hold 8 of their 13 Scottish seats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 59,526
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    40% also say Boris should refuse to resign if he loses a VONC and call a general election, only 29% say he should resign so an alternative government can be formed

    Boris does nor have it within in his power to call a general election.
    He does if no alternative government is formed within 14 days of his losing a VONC
    I still don't think this ever gets to a VONC. I still think Boris will get in first and announce we're having an election the day before Parliament returns on 5th September.

    Jezza will agree because hoe could he not... And off we go.
    From what I am hearing that is right, Boris will call a general election either in September or early October to be held in November shortly after we have left the EU
    Which raises the question. What will the Tory manifesto be? What will the LD manifesto be? What will TBP manifesto be?
    We pretty much know the Labour manifesto.
    Tory manifesto, Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st plus tax cuts and spending splurge, LD manifesto Stop Brexit, TBP manifesto No Deal Brexit without passing go, Labour manifesto Have not got a clue on Brexit but tax the rich and end austerity and renationalise the utilities.
    You can't have a Brexit now/ Stop Brexit position in a November manifesto after we have Brexited in October!
    Which was my point. You have to answer a completely different set of questions. There is no sign that anyone of those parties have put a great deal of thinking into what comes next.
    You can if you want to commit to that Brexit or reverse it and rejoin the EU
    "Commit to that Brexit" has a1945 election written all over it. What does that even mean? The psychological Rubicon will have been crossed. We will have Brexited.
    No evidence that the LDs will have a unified position on Rejoin. Most people are heartily sick of hearing about it. Re-opening the question for another 5 years is not likely to be spectacularly successful.
    Meanwhile, Corbyn will blame all issues/problems on "botched Tory Brexit", while actually having some policies to appeal to a large sector of the Brexit vote.
    If that is the Tory plan, I think it is nuts. Especially if the fruit of Brexit is large tax cuts for the well off.
    Utter crap, we would just be entering the war, a war that could still be ended by appeasement with the EU if Labour win propped up by the LDs, it would be election 1940 not 1945
This discussion has been closed.