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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When we are over the line, Brexit happens, then what?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When we are over the line, Brexit happens, then what?

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    First!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Like your party in most recent electoral contests?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217
    Will Brexit get over the line?

    fpt

    The key issues it seems are: whether MPs can capture the order paper to bring forward a motion; then what that motion might say; and whether it would succeed.

    As people have pointed out previously, that relies also on the Speaker. But to craft a motion that would gain a majority is also not trivial.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Like your party in most recent electoral contests?
    Three weeks and not a single LibDem candidate has lost an election. Not sure we'll make the month, though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    On topic, we all know that assuming a 2019 departure, the process of securing all the "mini-deals" that even most no deal advocates recognise are necessary, and the long haul to address all the trade and political fallout from our departure, will dominate the political agenda for years to come.

    Nevertheless after the actual act of leaving there will inevitably be a period of relief, however short lived. So voters will turn their attentions to the world after Brexit and how they want it to be managed. I do wonder whether after nearly a decade in office, having presided over unending chaos since the coalition ended, and with gratitude rarely shifting votes (assuming leave voters are even grateful in the first place), this bodes well for the Tories. Surely this must be what Labour is hoping and waiting for, recalling 1945?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Like your party in most recent electoral contests?
    Three weeks and not a single LibDem candidate has lost an election. Not sure we'll make the month, though.
    So Ed Davey was the last losing LibDem candidate!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    edited August 12

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Like your party in most recent electoral contests?
    Three weeks and not a single LibDem candidate has lost an election. Not sure we'll make the month, though.
    So Ed Davey was the last losing LibDem candidate!
    Doesn't really apply, does it?

    I was actually thinking of the Euroswhen I qualified my comment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    Adonis is probably right that if Brexit collapses, Sindy will fade from view. Aside from a three-year demonstration of how difficult and dangerous it all is, the issue of whether Sindy means leaving the EU arises once again, and the boost Sindy is receiving from remainer sentiment in Scotland drops away.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 741
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Like your party in most recent electoral contests?
    Three weeks and not a single LibDem candidate has lost an election. Not sure we'll make the month, though.
    Really? You mean there has been no election in which a LD candidate stood, who did not win? Presumably the number of such wins is in single figures.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    TOPPING said:

    Will Brexit get over the line?

    fpt

    The key issues it seems are: whether MPs can capture the order paper to bring forward a motion; then what that motion might say; and whether it would succeed.

    As people have pointed out previously, that relies also on the Speaker. But to craft a motion that would gain a majority is also not trivial.

    I am pretty sure that if the no deal majority wanted to act together to force an extension, it could be done with more than a 90% probability. The problem, as ever with politicians, is that party political interests and a whole stack of egos stand in the way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514
    IanB2 said:

    Adonis is probably right

    If he is that will be the first time ever.
  • Thanks Cyclefree.

    Yes, October 31st isn't the end, but merely the end of the beginning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    First!

    Like your party in most recent electoral contests?
    Three weeks and not a single LibDem candidate has lost an election. Not sure we'll make the month, though.
    Really? You mean there has been no election in which a LD candidate stood, who did not win? Presumably the number of such wins is in single figures.
    I do. Week One, two in Gloucester. Week Two, one in Huntingdon, one in Stockport, and the MP in Brecon. Week Three, one on Cambridge, one in Worcester.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452
    IanB2 said:

    Adonis is probably right that if Brexit collapses, Sindy will fade from view. Aside from a three-year demonstration of how difficult and dangerous it all is, the issue of whether Sindy means leaving the EU arises once again, and the boost Sindy is receiving from remainer sentiment in Scotland drops away.

    Obviously if Brexit in its current form collapses, it will become a completely neutral issue in Wangland. Also of course Scottish faith in UK institutions and its polity has been immeasurably strengthened over the last three years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960
    IDS thinks we’ve got them on the run.

  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 242
    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,009
    So if the £ collapses to, say, 0.5 euros Germany will go bust?

    It's a view.....
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Actually she doesn’t say that at all rather pointing out the benefits of working together to achieve the separation is more fruitful than not.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Miss Cyclefree, I quite agree.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 179
    Two observations that make me think that we are facing a major economic downturn:

    1. Saturday afternoon in my local town centre (quite a large town). The high street deserted, except for one establishment doing a roaring trade, a place that mends/alters/refashions clothes and soft furnishings; going full blast with six machinists (all Eastern European) and three "front of house" (all Locals). I believe that it is a franchise called Zip Yard, and I thoroughly recommend it, but clearly a sign of people being careful with their money. ( I have no financial or other interest in the place).

    2. My own line of work has always been contrary with regard to the general economy...quieter in boom times and booming when the economy has slowed. I have been doing this for 32 years, so I have seen it more than once. Well 2019 so far has been by a long stretch our highest earning and most profitable year.

    Two swallows don't make a summer, but with everything else going on, the portents are not favourable.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681
    FPT:

    Remainer MPs are fast running out of time and options to block a no-deal Brexit, says think tank

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/11/remainer-mps-fast-running-time-options-block-no-deal-brexit/

    Says the Daily Telegraph ;) Which probably means, says Cummings.

    The more they keep saying it the more it convinces me they know they're wrong.

    As I said in March, if Parliament wishes to prevent No Deal it will find a way of doing so. I was derided from quite a few on here who were categoric that it was impossible. Yet, they did.

    I believe they will do so again.
    They are quoting the Institute for Government, which also observes:

    Parliament’s ability to influence the course of Brexit earlier this year depended
    on specific processes set out in Section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act. Under this provision, the prime minister’s deal needed the endorsement of Parliament before the government was legally able to ratify the agreement and, if the government decided it wanted to leave without a deal, then further votes were required.

    However, Section 13’s no-deal provisions were tied to a specific date – 21 January 2019 – which has long passed. It is now of no use to MPs who want to express their view on no deal; if Johnson is set on no deal he will not need to schedule any further meaningful votes.

    Unlike May’s government, therefore, Johnson’s will be under no legally binding requirement to consult, inform or gain the agreement of the Commons. The government’s control of the Commons order paper, coupled with its ability to bring motions and deploy delaying tactics, now mean that it has a great deal of control over what happens in the lower House. Its control over the Lords is weaker, but any initiative from the upper House could not bind the government without being endorsed in the Commons.

    emphasis added


    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/parliament-role-before-31-october-brexit-FINAL.pdf
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Imagine Spain was leaving the EU with no deal. Would you still find the comparison bonkers?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Will Brexit get over the line?

    fpt

    The key issues it seems are: whether MPs can capture the order paper to bring forward a motion; then what that motion might say; and whether it would succeed.

    As people have pointed out previously, that relies also on the Speaker. But to craft a motion that would gain a majority is also not trivial.

    I am pretty sure that if the no deal majority wanted to act together to force an extension, it could be done with more than a 90% probability. The problem, as ever with politicians, is that party political interests and a whole stack of egos stand in the way.
    They would have to be sitting there now (I know there are plenty of remain-y groups amongst Tory MPs) actively plotting not only a motion that would appeal to their own side, but would need to take soundings from the opposition, in the teeth of their respective party leaders and would then have to come up with something concrete and winnable. That's a lot to ask, no matter how much pizza and barolo they might order in to expedite the process.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,009

    FPT:

    Remainer MPs are fast running out of time and options to block a no-deal Brexit, says think tank

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/11/remainer-mps-fast-running-time-options-block-no-deal-brexit/

    Says the Daily Telegraph ;) Which probably means, says Cummings.

    The more they keep saying it the more it convinces me they know they're wrong.

    As I said in March, if Parliament wishes to prevent No Deal it will find a way of doing so. I was derided from quite a few on here who were categoric that it was impossible. Yet, they did.

    I believe they will do so again.
    They are quoting the Institute for Government, which also observes:

    Parliament’s ability to influence the course of Brexit earlier this year depended
    on specific processes set out in Section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act. Under this provision, the prime minister’s deal needed the endorsement of Parliament before the government was legally able to ratify the agreement and, if the government decided it wanted to leave without a deal, then further votes were required.

    However, Section 13’s no-deal provisions were tied to a specific date – 21 January 2019 – which has long passed. It is now of no use to MPs who want to express their view on no deal; if Johnson is set on no deal he will not need to schedule any further meaningful votes.

    Unlike May’s government, therefore, Johnson’s will be under no legally binding requirement to consult, inform or gain the agreement of the Commons. The government’s control of the Commons order paper, coupled with its ability to bring motions and deploy delaying tactics, now mean that it has a great deal of control over what happens in the lower House. Its control over the Lords is weaker, but any initiative from the upper House could not bind the government without being endorsed in the Commons.

    emphasis added


    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/parliament-role-before-31-october-brexit-FINAL.pdf
    It's the equivalent of saying that the fire in the burning building cannot be extinguished because the owner is not there to give permission for firefighters to break down the door. But in an emergency the firefighters will break down the door anyway and fight the fire using any means available. The Commons are the firefighters in this case and they will break down Boris's door by any means available to them if he persists with no deal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    "Well, what exactly" will be for us to determine.

    Rather than contrasting with Y2K the better contrast is probably with the election of Blair in 1997 or the election of Cameron in 2010. Overnight there was no immediate change despite all the attention but over time changes were made - some quickly, some obvious, others less obvious and others over a longer timeframe.

    Regarding the "tentacles" they will at first still be there. One thing May got right was saying that EU laws would be 'grandfathered' wholesale into UK law unless or until it is replaced with new laws we choose.

    The election of Blair didn't undo 18 years of Conservative laws. Reforms to the unions, banning of secondary picketing, privatising and all sorts of other change the Tories had made in the past weren't reversed overnight. A lot of what had been done in the past, some new bits were changed, some bits that could have been done but weren't wanted by the previous regime [like devolution] were done.

    That is the point. We will have taken back control. And if we don't like what's next, then we can choose a new government to exercise its powers. It isn't a single event horizon, it is not a complete new beginning to our history either, it is the start of a new chapter though and from which there will be evolution afterwards.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    FPT:

    Remainer MPs are fast running out of time and options to block a no-deal Brexit, says think tank

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/11/remainer-mps-fast-running-time-options-block-no-deal-brexit/

    Says the Daily Telegraph ;) Which probably means, says Cummings.

    The more they keep saying it the more it convinces me they know they're wrong.

    As I said in March, if Parliament wishes to prevent No Deal it will find a way of doing so. I was derided from quite a few on here who were categoric that it was impossible. Yet, they did.

    I believe they will do so again.
    They are quoting the Institute for Government, which also observes:

    Parliament’s ability to influence the course of Brexit earlier this year depended
    on specific processes set out in Section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act. Under this provision, the prime minister’s deal needed the endorsement of Parliament before the government was legally able to ratify the agreement and, if the government decided it wanted to leave without a deal, then further votes were required.

    However, Section 13’s no-deal provisions were tied to a specific date – 21 January 2019 – which has long passed. It is now of no use to MPs who want to express their view on no deal; if Johnson is set on no deal he will not need to schedule any further meaningful votes.

    Unlike May’s government, therefore, Johnson’s will be under no legally binding requirement to consult, inform or gain the agreement of the Commons. The government’s control of the Commons order paper, coupled with its ability to bring motions and deploy delaying tactics, now mean that it has a great deal of control over what happens in the lower House. Its control over the Lords is weaker, but any initiative from the upper House could not bind the government without being endorsed in the Commons.

    emphasis added


    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/parliament-role-before-31-october-brexit-FINAL.pdf
    It's the equivalent of saying that the fire in the burning building cannot be extinguished because the owner is not there to give permission for firefighters to break down the door. But in an emergency the firefighters will break down the door anyway and fight the fire using any means available. The Commons are the firefighters in this case and they will break down Boris's door by any means available to them if he persists with no deal.
    Not if they sit around arguing who's in charge, while the building burns.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906
    edited August 12
    You can't make an omelette without cracking some eggs. This is undeniably true. An omelette needs eggs and they must be cracked.

    However the reverse is not true. If you have no clue what you are doing you can quite easily crack every last egg in your possession and yet fail to make an omelette worthy of the name.

    In which case all you have to show for your efforts is a diminished larder and a godawful mess in the kitchen.

    So, No Deal 31 Oct, eggs going neatly in the pan or all over the floor? I think we know the answer. So does Boris Johnson. Which is why I am still betting with confidence that it is a bluff. Political theatrics.

    31 Oct will come and go without drama because we will have extended the deadline.
  • franklyn said:

    Two observations that make me think that we are facing a major economic downturn:

    1. Saturday afternoon in my local town centre (quite a large town). The high street deserted, except for one establishment doing a roaring trade, a place that mends/alters/refashions clothes and soft furnishings; going full blast with six machinists (all Eastern European) and three "front of house" (all Locals). I believe that it is a franchise called Zip Yard, and I thoroughly recommend it, but clearly a sign of people being careful with their money. ( I have no financial or other interest in the place).

    2. My own line of work has always been contrary with regard to the general economy...quieter in boom times and booming when the economy has slowed. I have been doing this for 32 years, so I have seen it more than once. Well 2019 so far has been by a long stretch our highest earning and most profitable year.

    Two swallows don't make a summer, but with everything else going on, the portents are not favourable.

    Loan sharking?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,522
    Morning again all :)

    The problem of course is this is the most uncharted of waters. I suppose the only obvious historical parallel would be the break up of the Warsaw Pact, not, I stress, from a military standpoint but let's not forget the former WP countries were tied to the former USSR economically as well as militarily. Each had its part to play in the overall Communist economic strategy producing this or that.

    The rebalancing of those economies in the 1990s was often very painful with high levels of emigration, high levels of unemployment and a drastic loss of personal wealth for many and of course huge personal gains for a few.

    I'm NOT suggesting anything on that scale for a post-EU Britain but to imagine there will be no costs or pain is unrealistic and we now see the Government prepared to support zombie firms in order (some might argue) to keep the unemployment statistics down. As an aside, artificially low interest rates have done the same for years.

    Will the new immigration rules (whatever they are) start on 1/11? There still seems a lot of uncertainty over the rights of UK citizens in the EU after Brexit and presumably we will be ensuring no one but scientists and their lovely families will be entering the UK after 1/11 - no one talks about the former EU citizens who would already be here including those who arrived "looking for work" under the Single Market and have drifted into criminality quite apart from those who work in the black economy.

    Will there be a final rush of migrants before 31/10?

    I anticipate inconvenience at worst but such as to be annoying and irritating and questions will be asked as to why this wasn't adequately prepared for and this will sap the Government's popularity as it tries to be optimistic about Global Britain when people can't find a pint of milk or (more likely in some areas) their favourite avocado.

    As Stodge's ninth law of politics says "it's the little things that bring down Governments, not the big things".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    edited August 12
    kinabalu said:

    You can't make an omelette without cracking some eggs. This is undeniably true. An omelette needs eggs and they must be cracked.

    However the reverse is not true. If you have no clue what you are doing you can quite easily crack every last egg in your possession and yet fail to make an omelette worthy of the name.

    In which case all you have to show for your efforts is a diminished larder and a godawful mess in the kitchen.

    So, No Deal 31 Oct, eggs going neatly in the pan or all over the floor? I think we know the answer. So does Boris Johnson. Which is why I am still betting with confidence that it is a bluff. Political theatrics.

    31 Oct will come and go without drama because we will have extended the deadline.

    There is also the question of the cost of the eggs, and whether you want an omelette at all.

    And whether you'd trust the current head chef to make beans on toast.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    I see Elon Musk has joined the Yang Gang:
    https://articles2.marketrealist.com/2019/08/elon-musk-supports-andrew-yang-in-2020-elections/

    And describes himself as a socialist.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    So if the £ collapses to, say, 0.5 euros Germany will go bust?

    It's a view.....
    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Imagine Spain was leaving the EU with no deal. Would you still find the comparison bonkers?
    Yes. The EU is not Yugoslavia.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586

    So if the £ collapses to, say, 0.5 euros Germany will go bust?

    It's a view.....
    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?
    Pound up just a little today against the euro.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697
    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636


    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?

    That works, but only if the car parts or whatever that the British are selling are made out of home-grown vegetables, in factories powered by hundreds of people on converted bicycles, using parts knitted by local grandmothers out of their own hair.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 723
    No, Duncan. What it means is that UK asset prices are also devaluing in terms of other currencies and foreigners cannot believe their luck. Everything is about 16% cheaper in their currencies than in June 2016. Houses are cheaper, companies are cheaper !
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 15,452
    The Scottish question? Not enough English apparently.

  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 242

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Imagine Spain was leaving the EU with no deal. Would you still find the comparison bonkers?
    Yes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    edited August 12

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954
    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)



    Will there be a final rush of migrants before 31/10?

    Daily Mail readers escaping to Spain? I do hope so.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    "Well, what exactly" will be for us to determine.

    Rather than contrasting with Y2K the better contrast is probably with the election of Blair in 1997 or the election of Cameron in 2010. Overnight there was no immediate change despite all the attention but over time changes were made - some quickly, some obvious, others less obvious and others over a longer timeframe.

    Regarding the "tentacles" they will at first still be there. One thing May got right was saying that EU laws would be 'grandfathered' wholesale into UK law unless or until it is replaced with new laws we choose.

    The election of Blair didn't undo 18 years of Conservative laws. Reforms to the unions, banning of secondary picketing, privatising and all sorts of other change the Tories had made in the past weren't reversed overnight. A lot of what had been done in the past, some new bits were changed, some bits that could have been done but weren't wanted by the previous regime [like devolution] were done.

    That is the point. We will have taken back control. And if we don't like what's next, then we can choose a new government to exercise its powers. It isn't a single event horizon, it is not a complete new beginning to our history either, it is the start of a new chapter though and from which there will be evolution afterwards.

    Actually, the entire point of the article is that there will be a whole host of issues that are entirely beyond our control and to which we need the goodwill of others to find solutions.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    No.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 242
    nichomar said:

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Actually she doesn’t say that at all rather pointing out the benefits of working together to achieve the separation is more fruitful than not.
    Then why quote Yugoslavia? The implication is clear. With "no deal" that is on the cards.

    I am all for "working together" but it takes two to tango. The EU says it will not negotiate on anything except the terms of the WA which as shownn were unacceptable to Parliament.

    So what is your point?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    We already have that.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 309
    On topic.

    I think the value bet is brexit never happens.

    Too many people with money and influence in this country know brexiteers have it wrong.

    The fundamental flaw in brexit is the beef is with the political dimension of the EU, not the economic integration. Switzerland is not actually in the EU but has a closer economic integration today than we will have on the outside. And that’s the flaw in the brexit plan, believing to deal with your issues with the political integration you have to become hostile to the economic integration, taking a different global Britain path.

    You don’t. Quite simply in years to come with the benefit of hindsight everyone will say you don’t.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Thompson, I agree with much of that argument, but the cackhandedness of our departure manner is rather disheartening.

    Ironic that Grieve has done more than Farage to see that we leave with no deal, and pro-EU MPs voted for us to leave without an agreement.

    And that May introduced to the mainstream the very concept of no deal, which defeated her.

    The whole thing's been a comedy of errors.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    The Scottish question? Not enough English apparently.

    “Worried English voters” don’t care about partisan point-scoring against the SNP on devolved issues.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743


    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?

    That works, but only if the car parts or whatever that the British are selling are made out of home-grown vegetables, in factories powered by hundreds of people on converted bicycles, using parts knitted by local grandmothers out of their own hair.
    Unless there is zero value-added by the UK in car parts then it still works, though yes the factor is adjusted by any imports. But for any UK value-added we will still be cheaper.

    If UK manufactories are not providing any value-added then yes no change in sterling will save them. Nothing will.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Zephyr, how do you think we will end up remaining? What political steps do you think will be, or could be, taken?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    Freedom to once every four or five years vote in an election where the vast majority of votes are pointless the EU elections at least made votes count.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    Nigelb said:

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    We already have that.
    No we do not. Not for any laws that are set at an EU level.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    As 538 points out, Nevada is by far the most thinly polled of the early states:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-pollsters-forgotten-that-nevada-is-an-early-state/

    The potential for Warren (and to a lesser extent Harris) to surprise on the upside is considerable:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/07/elizabeth-warren-nevada-democrats-2020-1449938
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)



    Will there be a final rush of migrants before 31/10?

    Daily Mail readers escaping to Spain? I do hope so.

    We’ve got more than our fair share thank you.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 242

    The Scottish question? Not enough English apparently.

    “Worried English voters” don’t care about partisan point-scoring against the SNP on devolved issues.
    They dont like their interests being sacrificed for Scotland for Labour to gain office.

    There are many english issues on which SNP MPs get to decide. Voters understand that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    nichomar said:

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Actually she doesn’t say that at all rather pointing out the benefits of working together to achieve the separation is more fruitful than not.
    Then why quote Yugoslavia? The implication is clear. With "no deal" that is on the cards.

    I am all for "working together" but it takes two to tango. The EU says it will not negotiate on anything except the terms of the WA which as shownn were unacceptable to Parliament.

    So what is your point?
    Are you confident that the domestic fall out from No Deal would unite the country sufficiently to come through the problems it creates, or would the British state be tested beyond its capacity?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 5,522

    "Well, what exactly" will be for us to determine.

    Rather than contrasting with Y2K the better contrast is probably with the election of Blair in 1997 or the election of Cameron in 2010. Overnight there was no immediate change despite all the attention but over time changes were made - some quickly, some obvious, others less obvious and others over a longer timeframe.

    Regarding the "tentacles" they will at first still be there. One thing May got right was saying that EU laws would be 'grandfathered' wholesale into UK law unless or until it is replaced with new laws we choose.

    The election of Blair didn't undo 18 years of Conservative laws. Reforms to the unions, banning of secondary picketing, privatising and all sorts of other change the Tories had made in the past weren't reversed overnight. A lot of what had been done in the past, some new bits were changed, some bits that could have been done but weren't wanted by the previous regime [like devolution] were done.

    That is the point. We will have taken back control. And if we don't like what's next, then we can choose a new government to exercise its powers. It isn't a single event horizon, it is not a complete new beginning to our history either, it is the start of a new chapter though and from which there will be evolution afterwards.

    One of the reasons Blair won big was precisely because he didn't seek to erase all the Thatcher/Major administrations had done. He recognised a lot of people supported the neutering of Union power but the cuts to public services had gone too far so it was, to paraphrase someone else, "Thatcherism with a human face". However, Blair spent most of 1994-97 trying to reassure disillusioned Conservatives he wasn't a socialist and the Labour Party he now led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left and I think you'll agree he was pretty successful at least electorally.

    I presume one of your critiques of EU membership has been in the end we are faced with the choice between Jack Johnson and John Jackson or two forms of social democracy and at least outside the EU we can have full blooded Thatcherism (which I assume you'd prefer) or full-blooded socialism.

    The problem is leaving the EU doesn't mean we leave the world - we are still members of NATO and the UN amongst a host of others and even though we are the world's fifth largest economy, our economic room for manoeuvre in terms of deficit management and our exposure to global economic conditions, both positive and negative, do restrict the room policy makers have.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    We were always sovereign. And could always do that. Similarly, you could jump off a cliff if you wanted to but I'm guessing don't need to do it to prove the fact.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,009

    So if the £ collapses to, say, 0.5 euros Germany will go bust?

    It's a view.....
    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?
    Yes of course but the fall in the £ since 2016 has not led to any improvement in the UK's balance of trade. However it has led to a considerable increase in UK import prices which means that living standards here are lower then would otherwise have been the case.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576
    Nigelb said:

    I see Elon Musk has joined the Yang Gang:
    https://articles2.marketrealist.com/2019/08/elon-musk-supports-andrew-yang-in-2020-elections/

    And describes himself as a socialist.

    Yang will be the first president of... Mars !
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.

    I already have the freedom to elect politicians to best set laws for me, my family, my friends, my business, the UK etc. After No Deal, though, it will be governments elected by people in other countries - or which are not elected at all - which decide the UK's economic and trading future, as well as the extent to which I can offer services in the EU, travel in the EU, work in the EU, move capital around the EU, and so on. I will be less free than I am now.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    No. That's not what I've said. There is no precedent for what Britain is planning to do. Other than, possibly, Czechoslovakia. And they had a plan.

    What is Britain's?
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 242

    nichomar said:

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Actually she doesn’t say that at all rather pointing out the benefits of working together to achieve the separation is more fruitful than not.
    Then why quote Yugoslavia? The implication is clear. With "no deal" that is on the cards.

    I am all for "working together" but it takes two to tango. The EU says it will not negotiate on anything except the terms of the WA which as shownn were unacceptable to Parliament.

    So what is your point?
    Are you confident that the domestic fall out from No Deal would unite the country sufficiently to come through the problems it creates, or would the British state be tested beyond its capacity?
    I am completely confident that following the UK's withdrawal from the EU we will not have "a Yugoslavia", yes.

    You are delusional to suggest otherwise. Bonkers.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    nichomar said:

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    Freedom to once every four or five years vote in an election where the vast majority of votes are pointless the EU elections at least made votes count.
    At the EU elections in 2014 44/73 seats were won by parties saying we should hold an EU referendum.
    At the EU elections in 2019 44/73 seats were won by parties who said we should leave the EU.

    If you respect EU elections so much the implication is clear.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 242
    To compare post-Brexit UK potentially to Yugoslavia is completely and utterly deranged.

    It shows the absurd levels to which the Remain argument has sunk. Brexit has driven some people almost literally mad.

    I write as someone who voted 'Remain".
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 741

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    I disagree that passing complete power to the hands of 321 people, none of whom I voted for, is considered a freedom.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 27,689
    "Police in south Wales have warned people who have mocked the hairstyle of a wanted drug dealer that they could find themselves facing prosecution."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-49318050
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    edited August 12

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.

    I already have the freedom to elect politicians to best set laws for me, my family, my friends, my business, the UK etc. After No Deal, though, it will be governments elected by people in other countries - or which are not elected at all - which decide the UK's economic and trading future, as well as the extent to which I can offer services in the EU, travel in the EU, work in the EU, move capital around the EU, and so on. I will be less free than I am now.
    Seconded! Some at least of my grandchildren are very disappointed at the reduction in future options.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    nichomar said:

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Actually she doesn’t say that at all rather pointing out the benefits of working together to achieve the separation is more fruitful than not.
    Then why quote Yugoslavia? The implication is clear. With "no deal" that is on the cards.

    I am all for "working together" but it takes two to tango. The EU says it will not negotiate on anything except the terms of the WA which as shownn were unacceptable to Parliament.

    So what is your point?
    Are you confident that the domestic fall out from No Deal would unite the country sufficiently to come through the problems it creates, or would the British state be tested beyond its capacity?
    I am completely confident that following the UK's withdrawal from the EU we will not have "a Yugoslavia", yes.

    You are delusional to suggest otherwise. Bonkers.
    Is there no country whose withdrawal from the EU could end badly, or is your ultra-confidence reserved for the UK?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227
    One in five voters now hoarding food and medicine ahead of a possible No Deal Brexit as households spend £4billion to prepare for chaotic split from Brussels


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7348201/One-five-voters-hoarding-food-medicine-ahead-possible-No-Deal-Brexit.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    So if the £ collapses to, say, 0.5 euros Germany will go bust?

    It's a view.....
    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?
    Yes of course but the fall in the £ since 2016 has not led to any improvement in the UK's balance of trade. However it has led to a considerable increase in UK import prices which means that living standards here are lower then would otherwise have been the case.
    Actually there hasn't been a considerable increase in inflation, inflation is actually below and not above target. So you're wrong there.

    As for the UK's balance of trade, we just posted our first trade surplus in eight years: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    nichomar said:

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    Freedom to once every four or five years vote in an election where the vast majority of votes are pointless the EU elections at least made votes count.
    At the EU elections in 2014 44/73 seats were won by parties saying we should hold an EU referendum.
    At the EU elections in 2019 44/73 seats were won by parties who said we should leave the EU.

    If you respect EU elections so much the implication is clear.

    The majority of seats at the last Euro election were won by parties that oppose a No Deal Brexit.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    To compare post-Brexit UK potentially to Yugoslavia is completely and utterly deranged.

    It shows the absurd levels to which the Remain argument has sunk. Brexit has driven some people almost literally mad.

    I write as someone who voted 'Remain".

    Literally mad to think we could succumb to paramilitary violence and secessionism...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.

    And yet, on election night TV coverage never shows us how people in Germany, France or Italy voted in our UK elections.

    "And The Tories are short of a majority thanks to voters in Belguim voting Lib Dem..."
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    nichomar said:

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    Freedom to once every four or five years vote in an election where the vast majority of votes are pointless the EU elections at least made votes count.
    At the EU elections in 2014 44/73 seats were won by parties saying we should hold an EU referendum.
    At the EU elections in 2019 44/73 seats were won by parties who said we should leave the EU.

    If you respect EU elections so much the implication is clear.

    The majority of seats at the last Euro election were won by parties that oppose a No Deal Brexit.

    We've had this conversation before, parties opposing every form of Brexit have a majority. No deal is a negative though, you can't oppose a negative without a positive. Come up with a majority for a positive deal to be passed or no deal remains the default.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    So if the £ collapses to, say, 0.5 euros Germany will go bust?

    It's a view.....
    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?
    Yes of course but the fall in the £ since 2016 has not led to any improvement in the UK's balance of trade. However it has led to a considerable increase in UK import prices which means that living standards here are lower then would otherwise have been the case.

    If the UK government decides to waive most tariffs post No Deal, while the EU imposes tariffs on UK imports, then the falling pound may not prove to be that much of a help to UK exporters in Europe. But if the government does impose tariffs, prices are going to go up. It's an interesting problem.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    IanB2 said:

    Adonis is probably right that if Brexit collapses, Sindy will fade from view. Aside from a three-year demonstration of how difficult and dangerous it all is, the issue of whether Sindy means leaving the EU arises once again, and the boost Sindy is receiving from remainer sentiment in Scotland drops away.

    I think not, the same dictatorship will still be in place grinding us into the dust. It is not going away any time soon Brexit or not.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217

    So if the £ collapses to, say, 0.5 euros Germany will go bust?

    It's a view.....
    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?
    Yes of course but the fall in the £ since 2016 has not led to any improvement in the UK's balance of trade. However it has led to a considerable increase in UK import prices which means that living standards here are lower then would otherwise have been the case.
    Actually there hasn't been a considerable increase in inflation, inflation is actually below and not above target. So you're wrong there.

    As for the UK's balance of trade, we just posted our first trade surplus in eight years: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade
    There has been a SIGNIFICANT rise in inflation since the vote in 2016. From under 1% to peaking above 3%, well above the BoE TARGET of 2%.

    Oh wait, a two percentage points rise in the rate of inflation to you is marginal. God help us if under those terms we ever get what you might term a substantial rise in inflation.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    edited August 12

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.

    And yet, on election night TV coverage never shows us how people in Germany, France or Italy voted in our UK elections.

    "And The Tories are short of a majority thanks to voters in Belguim voting Lib Dem..."
    So laws are only set in our UK Parliament? Not the European Parliament?

    I can live with that then.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906
    edited August 12
    Nigelb said:

    There is also the question of the cost of the eggs, and whether you want an omelette at all.

    And whether you'd trust the current head chef to make beans on toast.

    Indeed. And it's "too much", "no" and "no" for me.

    Exiting analogyland, what I envisage is that at some point in Oct, just as the fever peaks, PM Boris Johnson will announce -

    "The EU have realized that under my stewardship we are serious about leaving deal or no deal. They have seen sense and have agreed to commence fresh talks with no pre-conditions. They want a deal. We want a deal. We have therefore set ourselves a short and strictly limited period in which to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement. This is the last chance. If a deal that is good for the UK cannot be done we will, I repeat WILL, be leaving the European Union on 27th March 2020. You can take that to the bank."

    And parliament will go along with this. Mucho sound and fury, but no successful VONC, no election, no Tory challenge to his leadership.

    And then, he either gets a deal through, or he fails and we DO get that election.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    nichomar said:

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    Freedom to once every four or five years vote in an election where the vast majority of votes are pointless the EU elections at least made votes count.
    At the EU elections in 2014 44/73 seats were won by parties saying we should hold an EU referendum.
    At the EU elections in 2019 44/73 seats were won by parties who said we should leave the EU.

    If you respect EU elections so much the implication is clear.

    The majority of seats at the last Euro election were won by parties that oppose a No Deal Brexit.

    We've had this conversation before, parties opposing every form of Brexit have a majority. No deal is a negative though, you can't oppose a negative without a positive. Come up with a majority for a positive deal to be passed or no deal remains the default.

    Opposing No Deal means asking for an extension to find an alternative to No Deal - all the parties that oppose No Deal support that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    The Scottish question? Not enough English apparently.

    “Worried English voters” don’t care about partisan point-scoring against the SNP on devolved issues.
    They dont like their interests being sacrificed for Scotland for Labour to gain office.

    There are many english issues on which SNP MPs get to decide. Voters understand that.
    Absolute bolloxs, EVIL is alive and well and SNP never vote on English only matters. More lies.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    TOPPING said:

    So if the £ collapses to, say, 0.5 euros Germany will go bust?

    It's a view.....
    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?
    Yes of course but the fall in the £ since 2016 has not led to any improvement in the UK's balance of trade. However it has led to a considerable increase in UK import prices which means that living standards here are lower then would otherwise have been the case.
    Actually there hasn't been a considerable increase in inflation, inflation is actually below and not above target. So you're wrong there.

    As for the UK's balance of trade, we just posted our first trade surplus in eight years: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade
    There has been a SIGNIFICANT rise in inflation since the vote in 2016. From under 1% to peaking above 3%, well above the BoE TARGET of 2%.

    Oh wait, a two percentage points rise in the rate of inflation to you is marginal. God help us if under those terms we ever get what you might term a substantial rise in inflation.
    Inflation peaked 0.1% above the BoE letter writing threshold of 3% and came back down under control the next month.

    Any variation within the 2% bounds of 1% to 3% is normal and marginal yes. Inflation above 3% or below 1% is concerning, hence the letters being necessary at that point and no letter necessary to explain why we have LOW INFLATION at 1.9% as because our inflation being BELOW TARGET it is still within acceptable bounds.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    nichomar said:

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    Freedom to once every four or five years vote in an election where the vast majority of votes are pointless the EU elections at least made votes count.
    At the EU elections in 2014 44/73 seats were won by parties saying we should hold an EU referendum.
    At the EU elections in 2019 44/73 seats were won by parties who said we should leave the EU.

    If you respect EU elections so much the implication is clear.

    The majority of seats at the last Euro election were won by parties that oppose a No Deal Brexit.

    We've had this conversation before, parties opposing every form of Brexit have a majority. No deal is a negative though, you can't oppose a negative without a positive. Come up with a majority for a positive deal to be passed or no deal remains the default.

    Opposing No Deal means asking for an extension to find an alternative to No Deal - all the parties that oppose No Deal support that.
    An extension is not an end state and just continues disruption for everyone. Even the EU have said an extension without a purpose is a bad idea.

    So what is the positive deal that a majority backs which we can get with an extension? As opposed to just ongoing purgatory.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906
    Zephyr said:

    On topic.

    I think the value bet is brexit never happens.

    Too many people with money and influence in this country know brexiteers have it wrong.

    The fundamental flaw in brexit is the beef is with the political dimension of the EU, not the economic integration. Switzerland is not actually in the EU but has a closer economic integration today than we will have on the outside. And that’s the flaw in the brexit plan, believing to deal with your issues with the political integration you have to become hostile to the economic integration, taking a different global Britain path.

    You don’t. Quite simply in years to come with the benefit of hindsight everyone will say you don’t.

    I think Brexit WILL happen but I agree with you on the value. 5.6 on not left by end of 2021 looks outstanding to me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743
    malcolmg said:

    The Scottish question? Not enough English apparently.

    “Worried English voters” don’t care about partisan point-scoring against the SNP on devolved issues.
    They dont like their interests being sacrificed for Scotland for Labour to gain office.

    There are many english issues on which SNP MPs get to decide. Voters understand that.
    Absolute bolloxs, EVIL is alive and well and SNP never vote on English only matters. More lies.
    Explain Sunday Trading and Fox Hunting then?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    nichomar said:

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Actually she doesn’t say that at all rather pointing out the benefits of working together to achieve the separation is more fruitful than not.
    Then why quote Yugoslavia? The implication is clear. With "no deal" that is on the cards.

    I am all for "working together" but it takes two to tango. The EU says it will not negotiate on anything except the terms of the WA which as shownn were unacceptable to Parliament.

    So what is your point?
    Are you confident that the domestic fall out from No Deal would unite the country sufficiently to come through the problems it creates, or would the British state be tested beyond its capacity?
    I am completely confident that following the UK's withdrawal from the EU we will not have "a Yugoslavia", yes.

    You are delusional to suggest otherwise. Bonkers.
    I was comparing Czechoslovakia to Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union.

    Is there a risk of renewed violence in Northern Ireland? Yes.

    How big a risk? I don"t know.

    Brexiteers don't seem to care about this, if one believes opinion polls. I find that quite shocking.

    Do I think that Britain will end up like Yugoslavia? No.

    It is nonetheless a cautionary tale for how apparently peaceful countries can very quickly fall apart when their raison d'etre vanishes. No country is immune if those in charge do not have a care for the country's structures, institutions, society etc. Unifying the country needs to mean more than a slogan.

    Do I think that there is a plan for what a No Deal Brexit means and what happens after?

    No. Perhaps one of the No Dealers will tell us what this plan, if it exists, consists of.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 3,741
    kinabalu said:



    "The EU have realized that under my stewardship we are serious about leaving deal or no deal. They have seen sense and have agreed to commence fresh talks with no pre-conditions. They want a deal. We want a deal. We have therefore set ourselves a short and strictly limited period in which to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement. This is the last chance. If a deal that is good for the UK cannot be done we will, I repeat WILL, be leaving the European Union on 27th March 2020. You can take that to the bank."

    He wouldn't last another 24 hours as tory leader if he came out with that load of crap.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.

    And yet, on election night TV coverage never shows us how people in Germany, France or Italy voted in our UK elections.

    "And The Tories are short of a majority thanks to voters in Belguim voting Lib Dem..."
    So laws are only set in our UK Parliament? Not the European Parliament?

    I can live with that then.

    Which laws do you feel have been imposed on UK voters by the European parliament against their will? The truth is that you are prioritising an issue that in practice has next to no effect on the daily lives of the overwhelming majority of British people over a considerable loss of economic sovereignty and personal freedom that will have a significant impact on their lives.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 34,681

    FPT:

    Remainer MPs are fast running out of time and options to block a no-deal Brexit, says think tank

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/11/remainer-mps-fast-running-time-options-block-no-deal-brexit/

    Says the Daily Telegraph ;) Which probably means, says Cummings.

    The more they keep saying it the more it convinces me they know they're wrong.

    As I said in March, if Parliament wishes to prevent No Deal it will find a way of doing so. I was derided from quite a few on here who were categoric that it was impossible. Yet, they did.

    I believe they will do so again.
    They are quoting the Institute for Government, which also observes:

    Parliament’s ability to influence the course of Brexit earlier this year depended
    on specific processes set out in Section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act. Under this provision, the prime minister’s deal needed the endorsement of Parliament before the government was legally able to ratify the agreement and, if the government decided it wanted to leave without a deal, then further votes were required.

    However, Section 13’s no-deal provisions were tied to a specific date – 21 January 2019 – which has long passed. It is now of no use to MPs who want to express their view on no deal; if Johnson is set on no deal he will not need to schedule any further meaningful votes.

    Unlike May’s government, therefore, Johnson’s will be under no legally binding requirement to consult, inform or gain the agreement of the Commons. The government’s control of the Commons order paper, coupled with its ability to bring motions and deploy delaying tactics, now mean that it has a great deal of control over what happens in the lower House. Its control over the Lords is weaker, but any initiative from the upper House could not bind the government without being endorsed in the Commons.

    emphasis added


    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/parliament-role-before-31-october-brexit-FINAL.pdf
    It's the equivalent of saying that the fire in the burning building cannot be extinguished because the owner is not there to give permission for firefighters to break down the door. But in an emergency the firefighters will break down the door anyway and fight the fire using any means available. The Commons are the firefighters in this case and they will break down Boris's door by any means available to them if he persists with no deal.
    That's the point of the IFG paper - they have very few means available to them - and those they have are not remotely straightforward. Bit like firefighters with hoses but no water.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622

    To compare post-Brexit UK potentially to Yugoslavia is completely and utterly deranged.

    It shows the absurd levels to which the Remain argument has sunk. Brexit has driven some people almost literally mad.

    "We must be mad, literally mad, ..."
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,009

    So if the £ collapses to, say, 0.5 euros Germany will go bust?

    It's a view.....
    If the £ collapses to € then German exports to the UK will be twice as expensive, while British exports to the EU will be half as expensive. Do you disagree?
    Yes of course but the fall in the £ since 2016 has not led to any improvement in the UK's balance of trade. However it has led to a considerable increase in UK import prices which means that living standards here are lower then would otherwise have been the case.
    Actually there hasn't been a considerable increase in inflation, inflation is actually below and not above target. So you're wrong there.

    As for the UK's balance of trade, we just posted our first trade surplus in eight years: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade
    I said a considerable increase in import prices. Which has happened. And pushed up inflation in 2016-17. And led to UK living standards being lower than would otherwise have been the case.

    It's true there was a trade surplus in one month recently. But the monthly average since 2016 has shown very little movement, which is surprising considering the large devaluation in sterling. It's probably because other factors are inhibiting UK trade flows, I wonder what they might be? Do you think the fact that no one knows what trade regime will apply to the UK in a couple of months might be a factor?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 35,079
    edited August 12
    I see labour are tackling the big issues again today....war on grouse shooting.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 30,697

    nichomar said:

    Excellent article. All I see from No Deal is less freedom for me, my family, my friends, my business, my fellow UK citizens and for the UK itself. I would love to understand what I am missing. Can anyone help?

    You are missing the freedom for you, and your UK family, UK friends and fellow UK citizens at UK elections to elect politicians to set laws that best suit you, your family, your friends, your business, your fellow citizens and the UK itself.

    As a voter the power will be in your and your fellow citizens hands rather than the hands of voters who are citizens of other countries.
    Freedom to once every four or five years vote in an election where the vast majority of votes are pointless the EU elections at least made votes count.
    At the EU elections in 2014 44/73 seats were won by parties saying we should hold an EU referendum.
    At the EU elections in 2019 44/73 seats were won by parties who said we should leave the EU.

    If you respect EU elections so much the implication is clear.

    The majority of seats at the last Euro election were won by parties that oppose a No Deal Brexit.

    We've had this conversation before, parties opposing every form of Brexit have a majority. No deal is a negative though, you can't oppose a negative without a positive. Come up with a majority for a positive deal to be passed or no deal remains the default.

    Opposing No Deal means asking for an extension to find an alternative to No Deal - all the parties that oppose No Deal support that.
    An extension is not an end state and just continues disruption for everyone. Even the EU have said an extension without a purpose is a bad idea.

    So what is the positive deal that a majority backs which we can get with an extension? As opposed to just ongoing purgatory.

    No Deal is not an end state - as Cyclefree's excellent article makes clear - and so does not end the uncertainty. It just puts the UK in a weaker position generally, while making British citizens and businesses less free than they are today.

    The UK Parliament needs to find a negotiated Brexit solution or we need a new general election to find one.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    malcolmg said:

    The Scottish question? Not enough English apparently.

    “Worried English voters” don’t care about partisan point-scoring against the SNP on devolved issues.
    They dont like their interests being sacrificed for Scotland for Labour to gain office.

    There are many english issues on which SNP MPs get to decide. Voters understand that.
    Absolute bolloxs, EVIL is alive and well and SNP never vote on English only matters. More lies.
    Explain Sunday Trading and Fox Hunting then?
    Sunday trading as I have explained to you previously affected Scotland, they were given opportunity to change it to make it English only but chose not to do so. Fox hunting I have no clue or care, if your whole argument is based on that you are dafter than I could imagine, only a moron could think ripping animals to pieces for some rich oicks pleasure is of any relevance .
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 242

    nichomar said:

    So Cyclefree thinks the break with the EU could for the UK potentially be like the break up of Yugoslavia?

    This really is nuts. You people have taken leave of your sense...

    Bonkers.

    Actually she doesn’t say that at all rather pointing out the benefits of working together to achieve the separation is more fruitful than not.
    Then why quote Yugoslavia? The implication is clear. With "no deal" that is on the cards.

    I am all for "working together" but it takes two to tango. The EU says it will not negotiate on anything except the terms of the WA which as shownn were unacceptable to Parliament.

    So what is your point?
    Are you confident that the domestic fall out from No Deal would unite the country sufficiently to come through the problems it creates, or would the British state be tested beyond its capacity?
    I am completely confident that following the UK's withdrawal from the EU we will not have "a Yugoslavia", yes.

    You are delusional to suggest otherwise. Bonkers.
    Is there no country whose withdrawal from the EU could end badly, or is your ultra-confidence reserved for the UK?
    Most countries would be fine, including the UK. I cannot speak for all of Europe because i dont know every country sufficiently well.

    But what is clear is that the author's (and i suspect your) knowledge of the background to the Yugoslavian war, and the history of that part of the world generally, is deficient relative to the claim you are making.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 15,586
    edited August 12
    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Adonis is probably right that if Brexit collapses, Sindy will fade from view. Aside from a three-year demonstration of how difficult and dangerous it all is, the issue of whether Sindy means leaving the EU arises once again, and the boost Sindy is receiving from remainer sentiment in Scotland drops away.

    I think not, the same dictatorship will still be in place grinding us into the dust. It is not going away any time soon Brexit or not.
    You mean Westminster, I take it Malc!
This discussion has been closed.