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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson appears to be doing what Gordon Brown did in the summe

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson appears to be doing what Gordon Brown did in the summer of 2017 giving you all the signs of going for an early election

On Betfair it’s now a 72% chance that there will be a general election this year. pic.twitter.com/kJPhshLAzu

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    Gordon Brown did not hold a 2017 election, or even talk about it
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    2007 perhaps?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    Even Mr Sweaty was gone by 2017....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    Even Mr Sweaty was gone by 2017....

    Thread hog. :smile:
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,913
    Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    Nigelb said:

    Even Mr Sweaty was gone by 2017....

    Thread hog. :smile:
    I have to get my entertainment somehow....
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    The airbrushing of history is good, but you missed one...

    "This period reminds me very much of summer 2017 when Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair in the June of that year"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    I’m also laying a 2019 election.

    I consider it very possible, but not heavily odds on.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114
    Off-topic:

    In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.

    Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.

    (There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218

    Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.

    Yes, I agree with that. I'd also add that Mike could have drawn the exact opposite conclusion from the similarities with Brown's first few weeks as PM: after all, we know that he was planning an election, so you could conclude that the current high level of largely meaningless activity suggests Boris is too.

    And of course there is the not inconsiderable chance that matters might be taken out of Boris' hands.

    The current odds look about right to me.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 11,636
    Interesting comparison but the difference is the Brown could just carry on, whereas Boris is faced with two doors, one reading "Lose half your voters" and the other one reading "Destroy your economy, lose large parts of your country, and lose some unknown proportion of your voters".
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,913

    And of course there is the not inconsiderable chance that matters might be taken out of Boris' hands.

    That's not a chance, that's the plan...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    Off-topic:

    In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.

    Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.

    (There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)

    Those have not been concerns for successive Russian governments, though.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,813

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.
    He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    Or we could be swapping one flavour of manure for another.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218

    And of course there is the not inconsiderable chance that matters might be taken out of Boris' hands.

    That's not a chance, that's the plan...
    Yes, very probably. But even if it wasn't, it could well still happen.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,114
    Nigelb said:

    Off-topic:

    In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.

    Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.

    (There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)

    Those have not been concerns for successive Russian governments, though.
    Indeed. It should perhaps be internationally, though.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906
    Agree with Mike. I am betting on 2019 passing with neither Brexit nor a GE happening.

    2020 OTOH ... oh my word.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.

    To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.

    If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    Can’t wait for @HYUFD to come along and tell you you’re wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    Nigelb said:

    Off-topic:

    In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.

    Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.

    (There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)

    Those have not been concerns for successive Russian governments, though.
    Indeed. It should perhaps be internationally, though.
    We know Trump doesn’t give a ... goddam.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    Cyclefree said:

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.
    Sadly, it seems like it has to be done sequentially
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    I’ve been a layer of 2019 (and specifically October 2019) for a while, hedged by also laying 2022. Indeed I’d have been better waiting for the odds of 2019 to come in.

    My reading of Bozo - having seen how cowardly he was during the leadership contest - is that he won’t risk throwing away the job unless he absolutely has to. The betting issue is that he may absolutely have to.
  • I'm laying Oct 19 - that's enough for me given my bankroll.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    IanB2 said:

    I’ve been a layer of 2019 (and specifically October 2019) for a while, hedged by also laying 2022. Indeed I’d have been better waiting for the odds of 2019 to come in.

    My reading of Bozo - having seen how cowardly he was during the leadership contest - is that he won’t risk throwing away the job unless he absolutely has to. The betting issue is that he may absolutely have to.

    Though you have to balance his cowardly streak with his reckless streak.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593
    edited August 12

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I think that is rather optimistic. The lesson of the last few years is things can always get worse. There seems little prospect of the big parties stepping back from their worst behaviours and people.

    Indeed, they are only getting worse by indulging their worst aspects.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    Yorkcity said:

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.
    He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
    What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?

    This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.

    I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    Cyclefree said:

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.
    Sadly, it seems like it has to be done sequentially
    A shame that there isn’t the equivalent of a politics BOGOF. Though I suppose it should be SOSAOF (Sack One, Sack Another One for Free).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593
    IanB2 said:

    I’ve been a layer of 2019 (and specifically October 2019) for a while, hedged by also laying 2022. Indeed I’d have been better waiting for the odds of 2019 to come in.

    My reading of Bozo - having seen how cowardly he was during the leadership contest - is that he won’t risk throwing away the job unless he absolutely has to. The betting issue is that he may absolutely have to.

    And that even if he does not want to his recklessness means it has been set in motion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 8,913
    Nigelb said:

    Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.

    To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.

    If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.
    To add to that, even if he loses, he'd probably remain Tory leader, with a fair chance of regaining the premiership within the next couple of years (depending on the exact arithmetic).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593
    edited August 12
    Yorkcity said:

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.
    He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
    How does BoJo avoid a split in his own vote if he cannot get Brexit through? A plea to Farage that it would be counter productive wont help, as Johnson has encouraged a self defeating plans all along himself and knows Farage will not play ball.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,011
    "Johnson needs to be convinced that he can more than offset potential losses with gains from LAB and that looks challenging"

    No, I think Johnson merely needs to ensure that he does not lose too badly & no-one else wins. Suppose Boris suffers a net loss of 20 seats. That is not good, but it is eminently recoverable.

    It would see a Lab + Lib + SNP government (presumably) trying to deal with the complexities of Brexit.

    There is no majority for any (positive) Brexit decision. There is only bitching about what people don't want.

    So a Lab + Lib + SNP Government (assuming it could even be got off the ground and set flying) would not last long. Boris could come straight back in another election.

    It goes back to David Herdon's astute observation after the 2017 election -- let Corbyn try.

    It is no disaster for Johnson to lose modestly, and let Corbyn or Swinson try and let them suffer the unpopularity that will come with any active decision.

    This is especially the case if Boris is forced into an election, rather than actively choses one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.

    To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.

    If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.
    To add to that, even if he loses, he'd probably remain Tory leader, with a fair chance of regaining the premiership within the next couple of years (depending on the exact arithmetic).
    If an election is called, the Tories most seats, Corbyn PM betting middle is one to look out for.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    kle4 said:

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I think that is rather optimistic. The lesson of the last few years is things can always get worse. There seems little prospect of the big parties stepping back from their worst behaviours and people.

    Indeed, they are only getting worse by indulging their worst aspects.
    I like optimisim. It is so much better than the alternative.

    Which is why I hate Brexit - it has no redeeming factors at all.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    edited August 12
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.
    Sadly, it seems like it has to be done sequentially
    A shame that there isn’t the equivalent of a politics BOGOF. Though I suppose it should be SOSAOF (Sack One, Sack Another One for Free).
    :)

    Maybe we can line them up against the wall when the revolution comes
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    Cyclefree said:

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.
    Unfortunately that would mean Swinson so even worse, there are no good outcomes.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    Can’t wait for @HYUFD to come along and tell you you’re wrong.
    I think anybody who puts too much faith in opinion polls at the moment is risking getting their fingers burnt. I believe that a lot of the people answering yes to no deal are actually saying yes to anything that they ‘think’ we get it over and done with. During a pre no deal election not only will there be more clarity on no deal and the myth of Johnson being a great communicator will be debunked. His leadership campaign showed he was barely better than May.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.

    To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.

    If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.
    To add to that, even if he loses, he'd probably remain Tory leader, with a fair chance of regaining the premiership within the next couple of years (depending on the exact arithmetic).
    Probably.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593

    kle4 said:

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I think that is rather optimistic. The lesson of the last few years is things can always get worse. There seems little prospect of the big parties stepping back from their worst behaviours and people.

    Indeed, they are only getting worse by indulging their worst aspects.
    I like optimisim. It is so much better than the alternative.

    Which is why I hate Brexit - it has no redeeming factors at all.
    Except that is a blinkered view since part of the complaint against no deal brexiteers is they are wildly too optimistic about its impact and how we could take advantage of the situation.

    So you dont like their optimism. Which I would agree with you on, and you may say fundamentally Brexit is more negatively focused, but I think framing it in moral terms as optimists back x is an open goal for no dealers .
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320

    It would see a Lab + Lib + SNP government (presumably) trying to deal with the complexities of Brexit.

    How? Labour might want Brexit, but the Libs and SNP do not.
  • Will one of Boris Johnson's ministers write

    ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase its majority’

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,368

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    Me too, but I'd back him to win right now. Indeed, that reminds me I will do so now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    Dunno about backchannels, Trump likes to use Twitter.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,011
    edited August 12

    It would see a Lab + Lib + SNP government (presumably) trying to deal with the complexities of Brexit.

    How? Labour might want Brexit, but the Libs and SNP do not.
    Whatever decision you take on Brexit will lose you votes.

    If you decide to revoke, it will lose you votes.

    That is why the LibDem candidate in Brecon & Radnorshire did not campaign for anything (like for revoking).

    She campaigned against something (a Hard Brexit).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.
    Unfortunately that would mean Swinson so even worse, there are no good outcomes.
    Ken Clarke, your time is now......
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607

    Will one of Boris Johnson's ministers write

    ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase its majority’

    https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

    Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Borisian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Raabs, the Patels or the Javids who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    I'm laying Oct 19 - that's enough for me given my bankroll.

    It’s a lot less attractive now than when I first recommended it. Friday 25th is still theoretically possible and Thursday 31st the only remaining credible date. But with the talk of Bozo wanting to push things into November, my lay October tip looks sound and I am now significantly green on everything other than Oct 2019 and 2022.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,011

    Nigelb said:

    Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.

    To add to that, a forced general election within a year must be an inevitability in any event, with so slim a majority, and trying to manage a no deal Brexit in the interim would be near impossible, even for a competent administration.

    If he seriously contemplates winning an election, he has to fight it this year.
    To add to that, even if he loses, he'd probably remain Tory leader, with a fair chance of regaining the premiership within the next couple of years (depending on the exact arithmetic).
    Yes, that is my reading. Boris just needs to make sure he doesn't lose too badly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    Dunno about backchannels, Trump likes to use Twitter.
    That’s priced in.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536
    edited August 12

    Johnson may have striven very hard to become Prime Minister, and doubtless some of that was for the title itself. But he must want to do things in government too, and - even ignoring Brexit - a government with a confidence-and-supply majority of 1 can't do anything. So I don't think the parallel with Gordon Brown, who inherited a majority of 60-odd, is very convincing.


    Why? When he was a child he just wanted to be world king; I don’t remember any ambition to make the world a better place. In his first job as a journalist he confessed to having no political principles or ideals whatsoever. He is likely the same as Gordon Brown, just wanting the job and its trappings, but not wanting the work (which even Gordon was up for), accountability or ability to improve things.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,009
    nichomar said:

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    Can’t wait for @HYUFD to come along and tell you you’re wrong.
    I think anybody who puts too much faith in opinion polls at the moment is risking getting their fingers burnt. I believe that a lot of the people answering yes to no deal are actually saying yes to anything that they ‘think’ we get it over and done with. During a pre no deal election not only will there be more clarity on no deal and the myth of Johnson being a great communicator will be debunked. His leadership campaign showed he was barely better than May.
    And his record of lying and cheating in both his public and private lives would be put under the microscope. It would not be pretty.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 466

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Your tat is my iPhone.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Yes we and others need to grow some balls. But as you accurately note we wont and everyone knows we wont.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Yes we and others need to grow some balls. But as you accurately note we wont and everyone knows we wont.
    I’m not sure that’s true. It’s about leadership.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.

    So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.

    (For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... :) ).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 3,906
    Pulpstar said:

    If an election is called, the Tories most seats, Corbyn PM betting middle is one to look out for.

    PT -

    I'm backing Harris and Warren for POTUS (long at weighted average about 4) and Biden for the nom as hedge to win an amount to cover my exposure on POTUS.

    So, best outcome for me is Harris or Warren get the nom and go on to beat Trump. Worst outcome is one of the women get the nom and lose to Trump. I lose lose if that happens. So does the world.

    If Biden gets the nom I will be net flat and will then (probably) back him to beat Trump.

    That's my MO on this one. You didn't ask, but I'm telling you anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Your tat is my iPhone.
    Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?

    Or do they just do it at a price we like?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 20,536

    Off-topic:

    In other news, it appears the Russians have admitted that their recent not-a-nuclear-missile-honest-guv explosion was, in fact, an explosion involving a nuclear rector. Which just so happened to be on a missile range.

    Obviously, the perfect place to have a nuclear reactor is on a missile range - if you're not building a nuclear-powered missile, that is.

    (There are massive concerns to be had over such missiles from an ecological and environmental point of view, yet alone militarily.)

    Equally off topic but related, I notice there is a lot of naval activity in the Channel this morning. A navy contact tells me that at least two Russian mini submarines hanging around the sub-channel cables have been detected and seen off in the last few weeks. As well as tapping communications it isn’t impossible that their activity had something to do with the recent power outages.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I think that is rather optimistic. The lesson of the last few years is things can always get worse. There seems little prospect of the big parties stepping back from their worst behaviours and people.

    Indeed, they are only getting worse by indulging their worst aspects.
    I like optimisim. It is so much better than the alternative.

    Which is why I hate Brexit - it has no redeeming factors at all.
    Except that is a blinkered view since part of the complaint against no deal brexiteers is they are wildly too optimistic about its impact and how we could take advantage of the situation.

    So you dont like their optimism. Which I would agree with you on, and you may say fundamentally Brexit is more negatively focused, but I think framing it in moral terms as optimists back x is an open goal for no dealers .
    Trust me - I am past caring. I will taunt the Brixteers unmercifully if Brexit turns to sh*t and cook a large humble pie if it is a roaring success and the Commonwealth begs us to lead the world. I want at least sunnily lit uplands from 1957 Mk2..

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 45,593

    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Your tat is my iPhone.
    Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?

    Or do they just do it at a price we like?
    Might as well be the same question. We are not about to harm our bottom line, in that way at least.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 309
    edited August 12
    You still there Morris Dancer, here’s your answer from last thread.

    “Mr. Zephyr, how do you think we will end up remaining? What political steps do you think will be, or could be, taken?”

    Experiments were carried out on monkeys, placing mother and baby in a cage on a hot plate and heating the plate. Ultimately the mum monkey stood on the baby to survive.

    What I am about to describe is not this government blinking or getting cold feet. It’s a logical and reasoned political argument, about doing what you need to obtain political power and keep it. Like standing naked in front the mirror and asking: is it better to be feared or loved?

    Imagine this government negotiating our brexit departure, As a team Cummings and all, as a cabinet, (and unlike how May tried to secretly fiddle and bounce it) to get what they really want, what they know is not just the best exit for Britain but for their own politics in medium and long term. It’s presented as being Mays deal dead, full steam ahead, but is this really this governments best option for their medium term survival? They could hit a pause button to negotiate it their way, their deal better than a no deal, particularly to their electoral prospects (what happens to inflation once we no deal out). And once we delay again, winds of political change, second ref, brexit death.

    if they cared about brexit, delay is a risk to it. But The people in the top jobs in government today, controlling the country’s policy agenda, do they care more about being in those jobs than brexit, out of those two options which one will they throw the dice on and risk?

    Politics ultimately doesn’t work to a master plan, it’s just a series of best managing the situations and crisis thrown at you.

    Betting on no brexit is a value bet.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,813

    Yorkcity said:

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.
    He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
    What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?

    This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.

    I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.
    I am confident Johnson wins an election against Corbyn .
    Especially if there is a VONC in Sept and a GE before 311019.

    Corbyn's only chance is if no deal is a disaster.

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 320
    edited August 12

    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.

    If only we were part of a large trading bloc with global influence..... *sigh!*
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    kle4 said:

    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Your tat is my iPhone.
    Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?

    Or do they just do it at a price we like?
    Might as well be the same question. We are not about to harm our bottom line, in that way at least.
    We regulate products, goods, standards and for ethics all the time. And factories and supply chains modify and adjust every few years.

    This is no different.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.

    So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.

    (For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... :) ).
    UK could do nothing in any event , China would swat them in any agenda , be it financial , goods , military. Best to shut yup and keep their heads down rather than be shown to really be impotent fools.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 53,576
    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If an election is called, the Tories most seats, Corbyn PM betting middle is one to look out for.

    PT -

    I'm backing Harris and Warren for POTUS (long at weighted average about 4) and Biden for the nom as hedge to win an amount to cover my exposure on POTUS.

    So, best outcome for me is Harris or Warren get the nom and go on to beat Trump. Worst outcome is one of the women get the nom and lose to Trump. I lose lose if that happens. So does the world.

    If Biden gets the nom I will be net flat and will then (probably) back him to beat Trump.

    That's my MO on this one. You didn't ask, but I'm telling you anyway.
    :) Ultimately I'm grateful, your (And others on Harris) opinion creates my betting opportunity :)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 6,757
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I would love to see Johnson losing an election. It would be a start on cleaning the Augean Stables of British politics

    I’d love to see both him and Corbyn lose, were that possible.
    Sadly, it seems like it has to be done sequentially
    A shame that there isn’t the equivalent of a politics BOGOF. Though I suppose it should be SOSAOF (Sack One, Sack Another One for Free).
    Sadly, its usually (except in the case of Chris Grayling) SOGAOTEW) (Sack One, Get Another One That's Even Worse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.
    He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
    What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?

    This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.

    I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.
    I am confident Johnson wins an election against Corbyn .
    Especially if there is a VONC in Sept and a GE before 311019.

    Corbyn's only chance is if no deal is a disaster.

    So it’s based on nothing more than a confident assertion.

    Fair enough. I’m backing my judgement with money and laying a Tory majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Your tat is my iPhone.
    Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?

    Or do they just do it at a price we like?
    No, they also supply most of the rare earths in it.
    And China are one of the largest holders of the patents for 5G technologies.

    As for their dependence on our buying their tat, many Chinese suppliers are growing considerably more interested in their domestic market.

    And their biggest customer is already engaging in a trade war with them, so our leverage is limited.

    We have a few universities which would probably go bust without their students, too.

    Oh, and our European allies....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.

    So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.

    (For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... :) ).
    You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.

    It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.

    I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 23,325

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.

    So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.

    (For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... :) ).
    You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.

    It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.

    I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.
    LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 5,883

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.
    He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
    What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?

    This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.

    I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.
    I am confident Johnson wins an election against Corbyn .
    Especially if there is a VONC in Sept and a GE before 311019.

    Corbyn's only chance is if no deal is a disaster.

    So it’s based on nothing more than a confident assertion.

    Fair enough. I’m backing my judgement with money and laying a Tory majority.
    It is perhaps significant that many natural supporters of the Big Two are of the opinion their own side will lose. A sign of how unpredictable it all is?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,646
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    Looks ominous. Are those military units from distant parts of China, as they were in Tiananmen Square, 1988?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 723
    Johnson will go for an election in the first week of November or he will not. He will not be going to the polls after two weeks of Brexit. His first priority is not Brexit but himself.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    dixiedean said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    I’d like to see an update of Yougov’s seat model.

    My instinct is that the Conservatives would lose further seats in London to Labour, and some surprising big swings in the Home Counties would lead it losing a number of safe seats to the LDs.

    Meanwhile, only a handful of gains in the Midlands and the North would materialise.

    So, i could see Boris on 250-260 seats and LoTO in rather short order.

    I disagree , Johnson will get a massive majority against a split Corbyn , Swinson opposition.
    He needs to go for it whilst Corbyn is still in place.
    What makes you so confident the percentage voteshares will remain static during the election campaign, and that they will translate into seat shares in a way that favours the Conservatives?

    This isn’t 1983. Voting habits are far looser now, much more aligned to social identity and UNS is breaking at the seams.

    I expect the reverse: for them to be regionally and demographically concentrated in a way that disfavours the Conservatives.
    I am confident Johnson wins an election against Corbyn .
    Especially if there is a VONC in Sept and a GE before 311019.

    Corbyn's only chance is if no deal is a disaster.

    So it’s based on nothing more than a confident assertion.

    Fair enough. I’m backing my judgement with money and laying a Tory majority.
    It is perhaps significant that many natural supporters of the Big Two are of the opinion their own side will lose. A sign of how unpredictable it all is?
    Which is why I think it’s more accurate to say that neither will win.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.

    So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.

    (For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... :) ).
    You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.

    It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.

    I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.
    LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.
    Well over a hundred Russian agents were expelled from Western countries worldwide.

    It will have set their intelligence efforts back several years.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 723

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    So we hold all the cards with China as well ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487

    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.

    If only we were part of a large trading bloc with global influence..... *sigh!*
    Can we please try and keep the mind-numbingly tedious Brexit debate out of it for once?

    I’m bored shitless by it and can’t be arsed.

    Thanks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630

    kle4 said:

    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Your tat is my iPhone.
    Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?

    Or do they just do it at a price we like?
    Might as well be the same question. We are not about to harm our bottom line, in that way at least.
    We regulate products, goods, standards and for ethics all the time. And factories and supply chains modify and adjust every few years.

    This is no different.
    It is China asserting itself. It is not going to be deflected by any pressure we can apply.

    Europe stood by while Putin helped the Syrian mass murderer kill tens of thousands if civilians and make refugees of millions, more or less on its doorstep.
    Do you think a city attached to the Chinese mainland will get any consideration ?

    And the world’s onetime policeman is now interested only in US interests.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.

    So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.

    (For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... :) ).
    UK could do nothing in any event , China would swat them in any agenda , be it financial , goods , military. Best to shut yup and keep their heads down rather than be shown to really be impotent fools.
    Malcolm you've had a moment of clarity.

    We could indeed do f*** all about it. The Chinese pledged that HK would stay "wu shi nian bu bian" (fifty years without change) but not only are we well into that period (and here's us saying things have changed constitutionally since June 2016) but for China, HK is an inviolable part of China, and whether legitimate or not, they evidently see a threat to their political system there and there is not much that we can do about it.

    The time for action was in 1972 not now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,034
    TOPPING said:

    In happier news, Northern are dumping the first of their Pacers today!


    (Devil's' advocate mode)

    The Pacers have served us well. If it were not the them and the 15x-style Sprinters, many rural branch lines that are open today would have been closed in the 1980s.
    Sprinters are OK, at least they have four axles per carriage!
    150s with 3+2 seating are fairly rubbish. Plus many of the seats offer a very poor view out of the window.

    158s are decent, but Northern have decided to replace the comfy seats with rock-hard ironing boards. Progress!

    I've not sampled the new 195 or 331 yet.
    Neither have I - but I passed a new 331 (I think) stabled at Edge Hill on the way into Lime Street last year.
    I was on an AZUMA this morning Sunil. I think it was we who were moving not the earth.
    I saw one at Alexandra Palace, but not been on one :(
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 23,218
    dixiedean said:

    It is perhaps significant that many natural supporters of the Big Two are of the opinion their own side will lose. A sign of how unpredictable it all is?

    Isn't it simply a reflection of the fact that with the current four-way split in England & Wales, and with the SNP likely to re-hoover up the seats they mislaid in 2017, it's a big ask for either of the big two to get a majority?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 4,607
    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.

    So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.

    (For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... :) ).
    You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.

    It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.

    I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.
    LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.
    I suppose the soaring phrase 'Go away and shut up' entered the lexicon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,034

    I'm staying in Glasgow next week only to learn they've closed the West Highland Line past Ardlui until Thursday 22nd!

    If you take the train out to Gourock you can split your time between the open air swimming pool and identifying the ships on the Clyde.
    Been there, done that! Nice location. I did Gourock and Wemyss Bay and Largs and Ardrossan last year - apart from Stranraer, done all of ScotRail south of a line connecting Balloch to Falkirk, plus Edinburgh to Leuchars.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 723

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.

    So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.

    (For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... :) ).
    You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.

    It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.

    I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.
    LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.
    Well over a hundred Russian agents were expelled from Western countries worldwide.

    It will have set their intelligence efforts back several years.
    Didn't they sent ours back too...…...interrupting their long holiday abd cheap boozing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,034
    malcolmg said:

    I've not sampled the new 195 or 331 yet.

    195 is the sum of eleven consecutive primes whereas 331 is a prime

    Neither are new

    :D :D
    You haven't really got the hang of this railway lark, have you!

    Spend a day out with Sunil - it will be an eye-opener...
    More likely an eye closer, be snoozing in no time.
    Next week, planning to do Croy to Alloa, Ayr to Stranraer and at least one of Cardross to Oban or Cardross to Fort William/Mallaig, given that the line won't reopen till the Thursday. Stirling to Perth could well be a consolation, or past there to Dundee, time permitting.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 309

    malcolmg said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    The West is divided and does not really care about HK. Britain is bothered with Brexit and in no position to do anything. Russia doesn’t care and probably would like it if a big country bullies a small part of its empire.

    So it all feels a bit like Hungary 1956.

    (For the hard of comprehension, this does not mean that I think Brexit is like the invasion of Hungary by the Warsaw Pact. One has to be so careful these days...... :) ).
    You say that but we managed a coordinated response to the Salisbury attacks.

    It’s probably more accurate to say the West has become more insular with regard to security and economic self-interests and is far less bothered about asserting its values worldwide.

    I think that’s a serious mistake. It might be an easier path in the short term. It certainly isn’t in the longer term.
    LOL, what co-ordinated response was that then, did we say they were naughty boys and better not come back. The Russians just mocked the UK.
    I suppose the soaring phrase 'Go away and shut up' entered the lexicon.
    Plus the Americans backed us by banning Oligarchs we didn’t even have the guts to ban.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 50,572
    Mr. Zephyr, cheers for the reply.

    Got to say, I disagree. I'm neither persuaded that just because something should happen it will, nor that the PM has the reasoning power of a monkey.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 29,487
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Your tat is my iPhone.
    Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?

    Or do they just do it at a price we like?
    Might as well be the same question. We are not about to harm our bottom line, in that way at least.
    We regulate products, goods, standards and for ethics all the time. And factories and supply chains modify and adjust every few years.

    This is no different.
    It is China asserting itself. It is not going to be deflected by any pressure we can apply.

    Europe stood by while Putin helped the Syrian mass murderer kill tens of thousands if civilians and make refugees of millions, more or less on its doorstep.
    Do you think a city attached to the Chinese mainland will get any consideration ?

    And the world’s onetime policeman is now interested only in US interests.
    We can all come up with long lists of excuses about why we can’t do anything.

    Like i said, it’s about leadership.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 19,217

    TOPPING said:

    In happier news, Northern are dumping the first of their Pacers today!


    (Devil's' advocate mode)

    The Pacers have served us well. If it were not the them and the 15x-style Sprinters, many rural branch lines that are open today would have been closed in the 1980s.
    Sprinters are OK, at least they have four axles per carriage!
    150s with 3+2 seating are fairly rubbish. Plus many of the seats offer a very poor view out of the window.

    158s are decent, but Northern have decided to replace the comfy seats with rock-hard ironing boards. Progress!

    I've not sampled the new 195 or 331 yet.
    Neither have I - but I passed a new 331 (I think) stabled at Edge Hill on the way into Lime Street last year.
    I was on an AZUMA this morning Sunil. I think it was we who were moving not the earth.
    I saw one at Alexandra Palace, but not been on one :(
    Seemed fine nothing to notice out of the ordinary - seat reservations now digital rather than sticky up pieces of paper, someone coming round every five minutes collecting rubbish, wifi much better than previous LNER/VTEC. Might try to bid on an upgrade on seatfrog to see what first class is like but there really isn't much point as most trains are not ram packed and there's plenty of room, seats, etc.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726

    Streeter said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It’s very concerning.

    Of course, we’ll do precisely nothing about it.
    Of course we wont. What do you want us to do? Even stern words against China is pushing it for us these days and they know it.
    Coordinated economic and political pressure amongst all Western countries through backchannels into China. Public won’t work as they’re all about face.

    Make clear if the Bill isn’t dropped a few deals and trading arrangements will be dropped, and a few other Chinese visas and investments dropped.
    But surely they can always hit us harder in retaliation? Maybe we are trying back channel stuff and it's getting nowhere.

    I pity the poor people of Hong Kong for being on their own with all this
    If we want our values to win out one day, worldwide, we need to grow a pair of balls.

    Principles aren’t principles if they don’t cost you anything. China depend on us buying their tat; they’re not omnipotent.
    Your tat is my iPhone.
    Is it only the Chinese who can make them, uniquely?

    Or do they just do it at a price we like?
    Fairphone have interesting information about the origins of the components that make up their phones. See https://www.fairphone.com/en/how-we-work/mapping-phone-made/

    I think Adam Smith would be proud. There's evidently masses of specialisation and mutually beneficial trade. I have no idea how hard it would be to excise one of the largest nodes from that.

    Interestingly Hong Kong itself features prominently.

    If we are to work towards that we would need to build stronger solidarity between Western countries. At that moment if we were to turn away Chinese students from our universities there would be many other universities in other countries delighted to take them.

    I agree that to do this requires leadership,as well as consistency that we could show on Saudi Arabia, for example, but if anything we are going backwards on this in recent years. Brexit is an obvious example.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,646
    Gold rising.
This discussion has been closed.