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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited August 13 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov poll

Just released on the YouGov website today is the above poll commissioned by the People’s Vote in the 20 most marginal Tory seats where the Lib Dems are the main challenger.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    All of them ?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989
    edited August 13
    Second but not sure like who
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    Looking good for a squeeze.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 13,630
    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 741
    edited August 13
    Well they are the 20 closest LD and CON constituencies, so we should not be surprised that the overall difference will be less than the margin of sampling error.

    And for all we know it could be a 10% lead in one marginal with a half a percent deficit in 19 others.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,308
    Very interesting poll. Can easily imagine Lab voters would go LD to stop the Tories. But for many it will depend on whether Swinson shows she is willing to work with Labour in some capacity.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    Shy Leavers? Leavers won't talk to pollsters because they're "part of the elite conspiracy against Brexit"? False recall?

    Hard to know why, but there's potential for the polls to be very wrong as a result.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954
    rkrkrk said:

    Very interesting poll. Can easily imagine Lab voters would go LD to stop the Tories. But for many it will depend on whether Swinson shows she is willing to work with Labour in some capacity.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 7,726
    Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 8,954
    So on these figures the LibDems would gain ten or a dozen Tory seats. Maybe a couple more with tactical voting.

    Add in Tory losses to the SNP and they'll need at least 20 gains from Labour just to stand still.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 11,259
    Andrew said:
    How's that a fucking exclusive? It has been all over everywhere all day.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    Being just ahead in the 20 top marginals presumably indicates a gain of around ten seats for the LDs from the Tories. It's not a huge revival for the LDs, but on the other hand the Tories can't really afford to be losing any seats if they're hoping for a majority.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 1,989

    So on these figures the LibDems would gain ten or a dozen Tory seats. Maybe a couple more with tactical voting.

    Add in Tory losses to the SNP and they'll need at least 20 gains from Labour just to stand still.

    I’m sure HY will be along to provide his interpretation of the poll which shows a Tory majority of 30
  • ChrisChris Posts: 3,622
    edited August 13

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 590

    rkrkrk said:

    Very interesting poll. Can easily imagine Lab voters would go LD to stop the Tories. But for many it will depend on whether Swinson shows she is willing to work with Labour in some capacity.

    The Lib Dems are willing to work with Labour, they're just not prepared to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister. Putting aside the reasons why, morally, that's a pretty sound stance, there's another very good reason - saying so would harm their chances in those marginals far more than it would boost it as they need to win Tory remainers (as well as Labour exiles) who hate one thing as much as Brexit, and it's something with a beard that and a penchant for marrows that's not especially welcome in Golders Green.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    Recession Watch: 1/???

    The US BLS releases data on Job Openings in its JOLTS survey. Alongside PMIs and the yield curve, this has been an excellent early warning recession sign.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.a.htm

    Private sector job openings are now falling, and are now down year-over-year.

    Now, the JOLTS survey is imperfect. It can show volatility. Nevertheless, it is yet another piece in the puzzle suggesting that the world economy is slowing markedly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    Chris said:

    Being just ahead in the 20 top marginals presumably indicates a gain of around ten seats for the LDs from the Tories. It's not a huge revival for the LDs, but on the other hand the Tories can't really afford to be losing any seats if they're hoping for a majority.

    I think that's broadly correct. I'd like to see what the top twenty are, and whether there are any particular trends inside the twenty that could allow us to extrapolate whether we're looking at five gains, or fifteen.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 26,338
    Nigelb said:

    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

    Sanders is in the low teens in Iowa, barely above Buttigieg.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 12,816
    Nigelb said:

    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

    I like Sanders, but note this is a tiny sample (250 Democrats).
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 397
    Why would the Labour vote be squeezed more than the Brexit vote?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,060

    Nigelb said:

    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

    I like Sanders, but note this is a tiny sample (250 Democrats).
    And it's his next door state.
  • A Con/LD marginal sounds like a nice place to live. Where are these beacons of liberal freedom?

    Coalitionistas FTW
  • Why would the Labour vote be squeezed more than the Brexit vote?

    They got squeezed down to deposit territory in B&R
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954

    A Con/LD marginal sounds like a nice place to live. Where are these beacons of liberal freedom?

    Coalitionistas FTW

    My hometown, Solihull, was one.
  • Chris said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,322
    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954
    Omnium said:

    How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Not clear, obviously.
  • A Con/LD marginal sounds like a nice place to live. Where are these beacons of liberal freedom?

    Coalitionistas FTW

    My hometown, Solihull, was one.
    You inspired me to research my own constituency.

    1. SNP maj 4000
    2. Lab - willing to collaborate with SNP
    3. Tory - unionist
    x.(lets's see how they poll) Brexit - unionist

    Could be my first ever Tory vote. It's Ms Brisk who is nearing the official age of voting tory - not me.
  • Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    Cannot have been that clear.

    Michael Gove thought Mrs May's deal honoured the referendum result, Boris Johnson said it didn't.
  • A Con/LD marginal sounds like a nice place to live. Where are these beacons of liberal freedom?

    Coalitionistas FTW

    My hometown, Solihull, was one.
    You inspired me to research my own constituency.

    1. SNP maj 4000
    2. Lab - willing to collaborate with SNP
    3. Tory - unionist
    x.(lets's see how they poll) Brexit - unionist

    Could be my first ever Tory vote. It's Ms Brisk who is nearing the official age of voting tory - not me.
    LD's lost their deposit last time btw
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 417

    Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?

    Richmond Park 0.07%
    St Ives 0.61%
    Cheltenham 4.51%
    North Devon 7.78%
    Cheadle 8.26%
    Lewes 10.16%
    St Albans 10.72%
    Wells 12.46%
    Hazel Grove 12.49%
    North Cornwall 14.13%
    Winchester 17.49%
    Brecon & Radnorshire 19.45%
    Thornbury & Yate 23.81%
    Yeovil 24.78%
    Taunton Deane 25.20%
    Sutton & Cheam 24.43%
    Eastleigh 24.75%
    Montgomeryshire 26.61%
    Torbay 27.91%
    Chippenham 29.10%

    Are, I think, the 20 most marginal straight Con/LD seats but there's also Southport where the LDs are in 3rd place but only about 12% off the lead.

    Looks like an average lead of about 16% to the Conservatives in these seats in 2017.
  • Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 2,954

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
    There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 24,388
    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,509

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is certainly no mandate for Remain and No Deal Brexit is the default option so doesn't need a mandate. If the parties involved can't agree a deal then .......
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 16,749
    Tbh, that's a poor result for the Lib Dems, they want to be at least 6-8 points ahead in the marginals by now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    Nigelb said:

    And perhaps time to go long Sanders for a bit ?
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457235-sanders-overtakes-biden-in-new-hampshire-poll

    Every dog, even the old ones, having its day in the Democratic race.

    I like Sanders, but note this is a tiny sample (250 Democrats).
    Yep. Margin error is 6%
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 1,740
    edited August 13
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    Being just ahead in the 20 top marginals presumably indicates a gain of around ten seats for the LDs from the Tories. It's not a huge revival for the LDs, but on the other hand the Tories can't really afford to be losing any seats if they're hoping for a majority.

    I think that's broadly correct. I'd like to see what the top twenty are, and whether there are any particular trends inside the twenty that could allow us to extrapolate whether we're looking at five gains, or fifteen.
    Here's the Lib Dem marginals list - I guess they went down as far as Torbay. http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
  • Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
    There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.
    It might have under Party List

    GE2015
    Con 36.8
    +
    UKIP 12.6

    =49.4pc
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,509

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
    There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.
    Says who?

    You can't transfer votes from our current system to votes under the awful PR system because they're different but its worth noting that in 2015 a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.

    Plus in 2014 EU elections under PR a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 318

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    The only reason there's no mandate is cus Parliament is stuffed with diehard remainers.

    We wouldn't have this problem under Party List system.
    There would have been no Brexit if we had PR.
    Says who?

    You can't transfer votes from our current system to votes under the awful PR system because they're different but its worth noting that in 2015 a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.

    Plus in 2014 EU elections under PR a majority of votes were cast in favour of referendum-supporting parties.
    It would have been a Tory-UKIP coalition in 2015 under PR (if the % votes were the same)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    So in other words you’re demanding an outcome that no one campaigned for. As I said, no mandate.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,533
    No port chaos says French head of Calais. https://www.metro.news/port-chaos-cest-la-bulls-say-french/1673162/

    ‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.

  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,509

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    edited August 13
    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023

    Chris said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
  • Chris said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
    Well the Remainers can certainly dish out the abuse enough that it perhaps just feels that there's more of them.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,509

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    So in other words you’re demanding an outcome that no one campaigned for. As I said, no mandate.
    I want an acceptable deal. I don't demand an outcome. If we leave without a deal it will be largely down to Remainers who don't want to leave whether there's a deal or not. Where's the mandate for throwing your toys out of the pram?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 25,227

    No port chaos says French head of Calais. https://www.metro.news/port-chaos-cest-la-bulls-say-french/1673162/

    ‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.

    If it is the same article as the Telegraph did two days ago then towards the end the journalist notes that Calais is under pressure from transfers of freight to Hull and other eastern ports that avoid the whole Kent/M2/Marston clusterfuck.

    So, on balance, it could be all fine and dandy, or...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,322

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
  • Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
  • Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,509

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Thank you - you prove my point. Tosh.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023

    Chris said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
    Well the Remainers can certainly dish out the abuse enough that it perhaps just feels that there's more of them.
    Haha you sure you don't mean the Traitors, Remoaners or the 'die hard Remainers' as we're generally called?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,034

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 7,980

    Anyone know what the average margin was in these seats in GE2017?

    Richmond Park 0.07%
    St Ives 0.61%
    Cheltenham 4.51%
    North Devon 7.78%
    Cheadle 8.26%
    Lewes 10.16%
    St Albans 10.72%
    Wells 12.46%
    Hazel Grove 12.49%
    North Cornwall 14.13%
    Winchester 17.49%
    Brecon & Radnorshire 19.45%
    Thornbury & Yate 23.81%
    Yeovil 24.78%
    Taunton Deane 25.20%
    Sutton & Cheam 24.43%
    Eastleigh 24.75%
    Montgomeryshire 26.61%
    Torbay 27.91%
    Chippenham 29.10%

    Are, I think, the 20 most marginal straight Con/LD seats but there's also Southport where the LDs are in 3rd place but only about 12% off the lead.

    Looks like an average lead of about 16% to the Conservatives in these seats in 2017.
    Labour would mount a serious campaign in St Albans given that it held the seat 1997 - 2005.
  • Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
    It is done. Cracks that were always there have been widened by Brexit. Well, not actually Brexit, but the totally amateur and incompetent way it has been handled. If we go out No Deal, I can't see Scotland voting to stay with us if English Westminster grants them another referendum. We're heading for a long stint of wankiness.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    The mandate has been given by both the people and the Parliament.

    The people gave a mandate to leave. The expectation was that we leave with a deal, but we needed to leave deal or no deal.

    Parliament chose in its infinite wisdom to reject the deal. That leaves no deal as the only form of leave standing. Don't blame leavers, blame Parliament.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 8,533

    No port chaos says French head of Calais. https://www.metro.news/port-chaos-cest-la-bulls-say-french/1673162/

    ‘There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons,’ - must read PB.

    If it is the same article as the Telegraph did two days ago then towards the end the journalist notes that Calais is under pressure from transfers of freight to Hull and other eastern ports that avoid the whole Kent/M2/Marston clusterfuck.

    So, on balance, it could be all fine and dandy, or...
    Or finer and dandier.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 9,023

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Anyone can be a Wikipedia editor
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 14,818

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    It’s no use, Alastair. You could quote all the statements made by Johnson, Gove, Raab and the rest of the Cabinet and it would all be ignored.

    You could even, as I have done in a thread header, quote the specific words in the Tory manifesto of 2017, on which all these lying halfwits were elected, which says that they will have an orderly exit and that too will be ignored.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,509

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    The mandate has been given by both the people and the Parliament.

    The people gave a mandate to leave. The expectation was that we leave with a deal, but we needed to leave deal or no deal.

    Parliament chose in its infinite wisdom to reject the deal. That leaves no deal as the only form of leave standing. Don't blame leavers, blame Parliament.
    Leavers blocked the deal. They can’t then insist on no deal. They have rejected what they had the mandate for.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,131
    edited August 13

    Chris said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
    Well the Remainers can certainly dish out the abuse enough that it perhaps just feels that there's more of them.
    Haha you sure you don't mean the Traitors, Remoaners or the 'die hard Remainers' as we're generally called?
    Nobody's called you Traitors - And have you seen the words you use to describe us?????

    It's you that's on the bullying side I'm afraid.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,034

    Chris said:

    Look at how the Remain/Leave vote has been reweighted.

    What’s the significance?
    YouGov have found far more Remainers than expected and adjusted. It may be:

    1) chance, in which case this is fine.
    2) false recall, in which case quiet Remain converts are underrecorded
    3) shy Leavers, in which case the Remain sample is again suspect.

    Treat with caution.
    Somehow "shy leavers" sounds like an oxymoron. But maybe that's just based on half a dozen people here.
    half a dozen people that are very much in the minority here. The only reason we're not shy about it is because your lot calls us stupid and worse all the time; we believe in fighting for democracy.
    Evidence that Leavers are "very much in the minority here"?

    Whenever we've surveyed regular PB posters we find there's a 50/50 split Leavers/Remainers.
    Well the Remainers can certainly dish out the abuse enough that it perhaps just feels that there's more of them.
    Haha you sure you don't mean the Traitors, Remoaners or the 'die hard Remainers' as we're generally called?
    Star Wars Remainers seem to be quite a Force.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,322

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    The mandate has been given by both the people and the Parliament.

    The people gave a mandate to leave. The expectation was that we leave with a deal, but we needed to leave deal or no deal.

    Parliament chose in its infinite wisdom to reject the deal. That leaves no deal as the only form of leave standing. Don't blame leavers, blame Parliament.
    Leavers blocked the deal. They can’t then insist on no deal. They have rejected what they had the mandate for.
    Over 400 MPs blocked the deal, are you saying they were all leavers?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 29,960

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,034

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
  • Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
    It is done. Cracks that were always there have been widened by Brexit. Well, not actually Brexit, but the totally amateur and incompetent way it has been handled. If we go out No Deal, I can't see Scotland voting to stay with us if English Westminster grants them another referendum. We're heading for a long stint of wankiness.
    It's not done. But if South Sudan mk 2 does appear on England's doorstep I agree it will be wanky.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
    So if Boris Johnson jumped off a cliff would you follow?

    Remainers chose to walk through the lobbies with the ERG. Then they're horrified there's no deal. Seriously WTF?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 26,075
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    We have to leave the EU. That was the decision. (And it was a decision)

    I'm not entirely sure that no-one campaigned for no-deal. But certainly few did, if any.

    You are trying to overturn the wishes of the people and introduce your own policy ideas, and merely on the basis that you wish it was so. Ambitious certainly, but hardly coherent.
    No, I’m trying to get Leavers to acknowledge that they are now claiming a mandate for a form of Brexit that they not only did not campaign for but that they expressly disavowed.
  • Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
    Farage should have a photo there along with Nicola, Clegg, Ed and Dave
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
    Apparently the party that came 10th should actually be in the top 4. Go figure?

    Maybe he wants one of your famous bar charts to suggest that 10th is actually top 4.
  • Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    Leave was the vote. No deal is the only way we can leave if we can't get a deal through Parliament, and the Remainers were largely responsible for that failure.
    That's not true. The UK could also leave by holding a border poll resulting in the dissolution of the UK.

    All roads now lead to the end of the UK. We would be wise to choose the least disruptive.
    That's tosh, utter tosh
    No Deal = quick disorderly break up of the UK
    Deal = slow orderly break up of the UK
    Revocation = polarisation of UK politics along nationalist lines leading to the break up of the UK

    The UK is done.
    Dream on
    It is done. Cracks that were always there have been widened by Brexit. Well, not actually Brexit, but the totally amateur and incompetent way it has been handled. If we go out No Deal, I can't see Scotland voting to stay with us if English Westminster grants them another referendum. We're heading for a long stint of wankiness.
    It's not done. But if South Sudan mk 2 does appear on England's doorstep I agree it will be wanky.
    I'm not getting the South Sudan mk2 thingy.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 3,509
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    Then

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    Then you are lacking in imagination

    There was a vote to leave

    It is a reasonable assumption that most believed a deal was likely.

    But the instruction was to leave. There was no caveat saying “but only if you negotiate a deal”
    Was that how the referendum campaign was fought by Leave, what they argued for?
    It’s no use, Alastair. You could quote all the statements made by Johnson, Gove, Raab and the rest of the Cabinet and it would all be ignored.

    You could even, as I have done in a thread header, quote the specific words in the Tory manifesto of 2017, on which all these lying halfwits were elected, which says that they will have an orderly exit and that too will be ignored.
    Remainer MPs rejected an orderly exit deal 3 times. ERG was irrelevant as were the other Tory rebels.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 22,743

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
    Farage should have a photo there along with Nicola, Clegg, Ed and Dave
    Why when he came 10th?
  • Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Brexit: It really is as simple as delivering on a democratic mandate. There are no ifs or buts. How much clearer could the instruction be?

    Meeks; You are fighting against democracy. You have so much more to lose than you have to gain. If you and the other remainders fight with Democracy then who knows.

    There is no mandate for no deal Brexit. I have no idea how you can imagine that there is.
    There is a mandate for 'Brexit'. No flavour was specified. I think you can safely say that any flavour counts. What doesn't count is not leaving the EU.

    I have enormous sympathy, and mostly I may even agree with the remain view, but I have far more alignment with things like the respect of the wishes of the people.

    If it's not to be democracy in the future then so be it. Not being democracy is your choice.

    No one campaigned for no deal Brexit. If you want it, you need a mandate for it. You haven’t got it yet.
    Remainers like you succeeded in putting No Deal in play and that irony has embittered you more than ever. It shows.
    Boris Johnson and other Brexiteers were on TV last November denouncing the deal before the text had even been released.
    So if Boris Johnson jumped off a cliff would you follow?
    Only if while cheering and laughing I stepped too close to the edge.

    (I agree entirely with your second point. Anyone who voted against May's deal is definitely deserving of ordure should we end up leaving without one.)
  • Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Anyone can be a Wikipedia editor
    So? If I change it so Farage's photo is up there it will just be changed back by the wiki elite.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 20,514

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    Not biased, UKIP came 10th in the election.
    They came third in the popular vote beating SNP and Lib Dems. Farage should have his photo up there on their biased website.
    Are you saying that Hilary Clinton actually came first?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 31,034

    Gotta love the unbiased Wikipedia,

    3rd place, 12.6pc

    But do they get a pic for the top four? No


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Blame FPTP not Wikipedia.
    Lol - it's a blatant example of liberal (in the American sense of the word) bias.
    How so?
    Farage should have a photo there along with Nicola, Clegg, Ed and Dave
    Nope. The Top 4 were as follows:

    Con 330 seats
    Lab 232 seats
    SNP 56 seats
    LDs 8 seats
  • Celtic = LOL
This discussion has been closed.