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JosiasJessop

That's better odds than I'd expect.

It's also a situation that could change rapidly over the coming weeks, in either direction.

Edit: and first.

DavidL

That looks about right to me. Labour will lose seats to the Tories on anything like current polling but the Tories will in turn lose seats to the Lib Dems and the SNP. Getting a majority in such a scenario is going to be hard but Labour face a world of pain losing seats to pretty much everybody.

Ishmael_Z

JosiasJessop said:

That's better odds than I'd expect.

It's also a situation that could change rapidly over the coming weeks, in either direction.

Edit: and first.

Better odds for which outcome?

YBarddCwsc

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

HYUFD

20 Tory MPs, including May Cabinet Ministers David Lidington, Rory Stewart, David Gauke and Greg Clark sign a letter written by the former Chancellor Philip Hammond demanding that PM Boris only leaves the EU with a Deal and say that his price of renegotiating the backstop is too high for the EU to agree.

Meanwhile Labour Deputy PM Tom Watson bypasses Jeremy Corbyn to begin direct talks with the LDs on stopping Brexit

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9716641/philip-hammond-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-letter/

Sean_F

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

I would say there is zero prospect of the SNP standing down anywhere in favour of the Lib Dems.

SouthamObserver

This looks about right, though I might go a bit higher - 40%/80%

YBarddCwsc

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

I would say there is zero prospect of the SNP standing down anywhere in favour of the Lib Dems.

In true hypocritical LibDem style, the SNP are not being invited to "Unite to Remain"

edmundintokyo

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

HYUFD

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

eek

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

That's irrelevant. The bigger question is where do the Tories make up the 10 seats the Tories will loss in Scotland..

MarqueeMark

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

ydoethur

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

The only seat in Wales where it might benefit the Liberal Democrats is Montgomeryshire, which could be very tight with Glyn Davies retiring and where the very small numbers of voters the Greens and Plaid offer might be decisive. There is practically no evidence it helped in Brecon and Radnor.

There may be seats in England - say, Cheltenham - where it would be different.

Sean_F

eek said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

That's irrelevant. The bigger question is where do the Tories make up the 10 seats the Tories will loss in Scotland..

I don't think they'll lose ten seats in Scotland, as they'll still hoover up the pro-Union/anti-EU vote there.

Foxy

DavidL said:

That looks about right to me. Labour will lose seats to the Tories on anything like current polling but the Tories will in turn lose seats to the Lib Dems and the SNP. Getting a majority in such a scenario is going to be hard but Labour face a world of pain losing seats to pretty much everybody.

This is where the concentration of the Labour vote matters. I ran some models before the 2017 GE, when there were widespread predictions of Labour wipeout. Their vote share has to collapse below about 20% before they get much below 200 seats. As we saw in the Euros, the Lab vote can hold up well even with crap leader and no discernable Brexit policy, SLAB perhaps excluded.

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

YBarddCwsc

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

HYUFD

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

That looks about right to me. Labour will lose seats to the Tories on anything like current polling but the Tories will in turn lose seats to the Lib Dems and the SNP. Getting a majority in such a scenario is going to be hard but Labour face a world of pain losing seats to pretty much everybody.

This is where the concentration of the Labour vote matters. I ran some models before the 2017 GE, when there were widespread predictions of Labour wipeout. Their vote share has to collapse below about 20% before they get much below 200 seats. As we saw in the Euros, the Lab vote can hold up well even with crap leader and no discernable Brexit policy, SLAB perhaps excluded.

Labour on just 22% in the latest Yougov which would see them under 200 seats most likely

HYUFD

eek said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

That's irrelevant. The bigger question is where do the Tories make up the 10 seats the Tories will loss in Scotland..

The Tories may not lose 10 seats, on the latest Yougov the Tories will hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats as the SNP are only up 2% on 2017 to 39%

MikeSmithson

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

From the evidence so far of Brecon and local by-elections Boris is a loser Not a Winner.

YBarddCwsc

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

The only seat in Wales where it might benefit the Liberal Democrats is Montgomeryshire, which could be very tight with Glyn Davies retiring and where the very small numbers of voters the Greens and Plaid offer might be decisive. There is practically no evidence it helped in Brecon and Radnor.

There may be seats in England - say, Cheltenham - where it would be different.

I think the Plaid Cymru vote is 1/3 Leave, 2/3 Remain. So, this alliance will lose some Plaid Cymru voters.

The LibDem vote is 100 per cent Remain, so the problem does not occur for them.

eek

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

That's irrelevant. The bigger question is where do the Tories make up the 10 seats the Tories will loss in Scotland..

The Tories may not lose 10 seats, on the latest Yougov the Tories will hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats as the SNP are only up 2% on 2017 to 39%

That's still 5 seats that the Tories need to find elsewhere in the country.

And Boris currently has a starting point of -10 seats for a majority. Add Scotland and he needs to find 15 seats...

Which is why Boris is likely to win most seats but won't win a majority..

edmundintokyo

YBarddCwsc said:

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

I don't know the details of thr university issue but last time they managed to come up with a fairly popular amd surprisingly pragmatic manifesto, I don't see why they'd bollocks it up this time.

JosiasJessop

Ishmael_Z said:

JosiasJessop said:

That's better odds than I'd expect.

It's also a situation that could change rapidly over the coming weeks, in either direction.

Edit: and first.

Better odds for which outcome?

Both winning most seats and getting a majority.

DecrepitJohnL

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

More to the point, Boris has plucked the Tory magic money tree to spaff the cash at all Labour's points from GE2017: NHS, 20,000 police and so on.

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

From the evidence so far of Brecon and local by-elections Boris is a loser Not a Winner.

The Tory voteshare was up in Worcester last week and the Tories got 12% more in Brecon on election night with Boris as PM than the only by election poll of the campaign had them on when May was PM

Mysticrose

HYUFD said:

20 Tory MPs, including May Cabinet Ministers David Lidington, Rory Stewart, David Gauke and Greg Clark sign a letter written by the former Chancellor Philip Hammond demanding that PM Boris only leaves the EU with a Deal and say that his price of renegotiating the backstop is too high for the EU to agree.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9716641/philip-hammond-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-letter/

The second most significant thing about that letter is the missing signatures. Where are Guto Bebb, Phillip Lee and Justine Greening?

Are they about to jump ship to the LibDems?

HYUFD

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

That's irrelevant. The bigger question is where do the Tories make up the 10 seats the Tories will loss in Scotland..

The Tories may not lose 10 seats, on the latest Yougov the Tories will hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats as the SNP are only up 2% on 2017 to 39%

That's still 5 seats that the Tories need to find elsewhere in the country.

And Boris currently has a starting point of -10 seats for a majority. Add Scotland and he needs to find 15 seats...

Tories gain 31 Labour seats on latest Yougov

OblitusSumMe

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

I think that the logical consequence of the resurgence of the Lib Dems is that it becomes psychologically harder for anti-Brexit voters to fall in behind a tactical vote for Corbyn/Labour, because there is a more credible alternative - though much depends on the circumstances in which an election takes place.

I think that it's more likely than not that 2017 was a high water mark for Corbyn. My central scenario would probably have both Labour/Tories losing net seats. 22% looks about right to me.

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

I reckon he thought it idiotic to keep the same candidate in Brecon and Radnor. But that decision was not prevented by May before he took over. I strongly suspect, to hamper Boris in the expectation that the Tories would lose the seat as a result.

ydoethur

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

The only seat in Wales where it might benefit the Liberal Democrats is Montgomeryshire, which could be very tight with Glyn Davies retiring and where the very small numbers of voters the Greens and Plaid offer might be decisive. There is practically no evidence it helped in Brecon and Radnor.

There may be seats in England - say, Cheltenham - where it would be different.

I think the Plaid Cymru vote is 1/3 Leave, 2/3 Remain. So, this alliance will lose some Plaid Cymru voters.

The LibDem vote is 100 per cent Remain, so the problem does not occur for them.

That's one problem. The other problem is that people are assuming that just because the party leadership has endorsed another candidate, that means their voters will slavishly follow. This is a very bold assumption. In the case of Wales for a number of reasons it is a totally ludicrous assumption. If you were a Liberal Democrat and willing to vote for a Plaid candidate to take a seat off say Labour - and Ynys Môn is the only seat where this might apply - you will already be doing it. If not, no amount of havering from Jane Dodds will change your mind.

Peter_the_Punter

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

YBarddCwsc

edmundintokyo said:

YBarddCwsc said:

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

I don't know the details of thr university issue but last time they managed to come up with a fairly popular amd surprisingly pragmatic manifesto, I don't see why they'd bollocks it up this time.

"I don't know the details..." could probably be put in the front of the Labour manifesto.

eek

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

That's irrelevant. The bigger question is where do the Tories make up the 10 seats the Tories will loss in Scotland..

The Tories may not lose 10 seats, on the latest Yougov the Tories will hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats as the SNP are only up 2% on 2017 to 39%

That's still 5 seats that the Tories need to find elsewhere in the country.

And Boris currently has a starting point of -10 seats for a majority. Add Scotland and he needs to find 15 seats...

Tories gain 31 Labour seats on latest Yougov

Tories gain seats I don't think they will gain on the ground.

ydoethur

MikeSmithson said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

From the evidence so far of Brecon and local by-elections Boris is a loser Not a Winner.

Which is surprising. Because with all his faults (which a lack of seven years and 500,000 words of space means I can't list in full) I did always think of him as a highly effective campaigner. But his campaign for the leadership was frankly lacklustre and he seems on first glance to be repeating all the mistakes of Theresa May.

geoffw

Unscaled horizontal axis. OK the text says it is the last six months, but it would be helpful, to say the least, to show a labelled time axis.

Mysticrose

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

I'm not sure about 'slaughter' but I think you're probably right with the premise.

Which says a lot about how rubbish Johnson is at debating.

It must be a long time since we had two such rubbish leaders together of Cons and Labour. At any time in history?

MarqueeMark

DecrepitJohnL said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

More to the point, Boris has plucked the Tory magic money tree to spaff the cash at all Labour's points from GE2017: NHS, 20,000 police and so on.

I told you before he was even elected that I reckoned Boris would cherry-pick the popular bits of Labour's policies. Whatever it takes to 1. implement Brexit and 2. keep Corbyn out of Downing Street.

OblitusSumMe

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Theresa May was a newer thing in terms of occupying the party leadership than Corbyn was in 2017. Didn't do her much good once the campaign started.

Odd that the confidence in Johnson's campaigning abilities did not extend to letting him out of the basement for the Conservative leadership election.

Casino_Royale

The better bet (as Alastair Meeks hinted at in a post barely a week ago) is to back Hung Parliament.

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

From the evidence so far of Brecon and local by-elections Boris is a loser Not a Winner.

The Tory voteshare was up in Worcester last week and the Tories got 12% more in Brecon on election night with Boris as PM than the only by election poll of the campaign had them on when May was PM

FFS, HYUFD, how many farmers and farming families have time to answer polls at the height of the haymaking season? In an area with poor phone and Internet coverage, at that? That poll was totally unreliable and as it has been explained to you many times in words of one syllable you must know that.

There was no evidence of a Boris bounce, if anything the reverse. Despite everything, that is a seat the Tories should have held. They lost by a far bigger margin than those of us who knew he seat were predicting, due to the collapse of a very tribal Labour vote in a deprived ex-industrial area to the Liberal Democrats. As I have repeatedly said that should worry Labour, but it should also worry you.

Mysticrose

If Greening, Bebb and Lee do jump ship to the LibDems, surely that really is 'it' for the Johnson regime?

Might we not see a double-fronted attack?

First Parliament stops No Deal Brexit & extends.

Second, once they're sure of that, we have a VONC or call for election. It's easy to forget in the Brexit farrago that Johnson is virtually without majority for all the other Gov't business. That's why, on balance, I DO think we're heading for a 2019 General Election.

It's possible we could see an extension of Article 50 AND a General Election before Oct 31st.

eristdoof

geoffw said:

Unscaled horizontal axis. OK the text says it is the last six months, but it would be helpful, to say the least, to show a labelled time axis.

seconded

SandyRentool

Tories most seats but no majority sounds right. The question remains who forms government, and I find that much harder to call.

Casino_Royale

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

Would he?

I don’t see the evidence for that. I don’t think there’d be much in it but I’d rate Boris narrowly ahead just because Corbyn’s dogma is so predictable.

Chris

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

That's irrelevant. The bigger question is where do the Tories make up the 10 seats the Tories will loss in Scotland..

The Tories may not lose 10 seats, on the latest Yougov the Tories will hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats as the SNP are only up 2% on 2017 to 39%

That's still 5 seats that the Tories need to find elsewhere in the country.

And Boris currently has a starting point of -10 seats for a majority. Add Scotland and he needs to find 15 seats...

Which is why Boris is likely to win most seats but won't win a majority..

I doubt these polls tell us much more than those polls from a month ago predicting a solid majority for Johnson if he became PM.

We're on a voyage into the unknown. Anything could happen in the next month or so.

YBarddCwsc

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

The only seat in Wales where it might benefit the Liberal Democrats is Montgomeryshire, which could be very tight with Glyn Davies retiring and where the very small numbers of voters the Greens and Plaid offer might be decisive. There is practically no evidence it helped in Brecon and Radnor.

There may be seats in England - say, Cheltenham - where it would be different.

I think the Plaid Cymru vote is 1/3 Leave, 2/3 Remain. So, this alliance will lose some Plaid Cymru voters.

The LibDem vote is 100 per cent Remain, so the problem does not occur for them.

That's one problem. The other problem is that people are assuming that just because the party leadership has endorsed another candidate, that means their voters will slavishly follow. This is a very bold assumption. In the case of Wales for a number of reasons it is a totally ludicrous assumption. If you were a Liberal Democrat and willing to vote for a Plaid candidate to take a seat off say Labour - and Ynys Môn is the only seat where this might apply - you will already be doing it. If not, no amount of havering from Jane Dodds will change your mind.

Marginal Arfon is possibly another example.

I suspect LibDems in Arfon or Ynys Môn are probably more likely either to not vote or to vote Labour than Plaid Cymru -- if the LibDems are not standing.

I have still to hear what Plaid Cymru got in return for not standing in Brecon & Radnorshire.

MarqueeMark

An October/November election with Brexit in the bag, one way or another, leaves the following:

1. Tories saying let's make the most of these new opportunities. Positive, gung ho, fronted by positive, gung ho Boris.

2. LibDems saying "we don't LIKE these new opportunities - we want the world how it was. Let's rejoin!"

3. SNP's stuck record saying "referendum"

4. DUP saying "NO! (What was the question?)"

5. Labour saying "Jeremy...Jeremy? What the fuck are we saying, Jeremy?"

EDIT:

6. The Brexit Party saying nothing.

ydoethur

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

There is another way it could be done, of course. Minimum age of 19 for university entrance. Take a year out after A-levels to travel or work. And also to understand there is life beyond sitting exams. As both a teacher and a former lecturer I'd be in favour of that.

But that would leave an awkward twelve month gap of no new students coming in, so it will never happen.

Currystardog

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

Did you see Boris v Corbyn in the final day of Parliament. I didn't feel that Boris got slaughtered. Even Big G was full of praise for Boris.

OnlyLivingBoy

The Tories lost seats to Labour, net, at the last two elections. Yes Corbyn is rubbish. Yes Johnson isn't May. But in the wake of a no deal Brexit I struggle to see the Tories doing better against Labour than in 2015 or 2017. And they are likely to go backwards against the SNP and the Lib Dems. I would give them about a 55% chance of winning most seats and a 20% chance of winning a majority.

Morris_Dancer

The Lib Dems are going to be the most interesting party to watch on election night.

Anti-Conservative tactical voting could come roaring back, as Labour types are quite happy to 'reluctantly' abandon Corbyn and support the Lib Dems.

Chris

Chris said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

That's irrelevant. The bigger question is where do the Tories make up the 10 seats the Tories will loss in Scotland..

The Tories may not lose 10 seats, on the latest Yougov the Tories will hold 8 out of 13 of their Scottish seats as the SNP are only up 2% on 2017 to 39%

That's still 5 seats that the Tories need to find elsewhere in the country.

And Boris currently has a starting point of -10 seats for a majority. Add Scotland and he needs to find 15 seats...

Which is why Boris is likely to win most seats but won't win a majority..

I doubt these polls tell us much more than those polls from a month ago predicting a solid majority for Johnson if he became PM.

Or the polls showing Theresa May with a 20-point lead in 2017!

ydoethur

Mysticrose said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

I'm not sure about 'slaughter' but I think you're probably right with the premise.

Which says a lot about how rubbish Johnson is at debating.

It must be a long time since we had two such rubbish leaders together of Cons and Labour. At any time in history?

Baldwin and Lansbury, 1931-35? Although Baldwin was not PM at the time as Macdonald was technically in charge of the government, and Lansbury never fought an election as party leader.

ydoethur

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

The only seat in Wales where it might benefit the Liberal Democrats is Montgomeryshire, which could be very tight with Glyn Davies retiring and where the very small numbers of voters the Greens and Plaid offer might be decisive. There is practically no evidence it helped in Brecon and Radnor.

There may be seats in England - say, Cheltenham - where it would be different.

I think the Plaid Cymru vote is 1/3 Leave, 2/3 Remain. So, this alliance will lose some Plaid Cymru voters.

The LibDem vote is 100 per cent Remain, so the problem does not occur for them.

That's one problem. The other problem is that people are assuming that just because the party leadership has endorsed another candidate, that means their voters will slavishly follow. This is a very bold assumption. In the case of Wales for a number of reasons it is a totally ludicrous assumption. If you were a Liberal Democrat and willing to vote for a Plaid candidate to take a seat off say Labour - and Ynys Môn is the only seat where this might apply - you will already be doing it. If not, no amount of havering from Jane Dodds will change your mind.

Marginal Arfon is possibly another example.

I suspect LibDems in Arfon or Ynys Môn are probably more likely either to not vote or to vote Labour than Plaid Cymru -- if the LibDems are not standing.

I have still to hear what Plaid Cymru got in return for not standing in Brecon & Radnorshire.

I don't think Arfon is under threat at this moment the way Labour are imploding.

TOPPING

Casino_Royale said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

Would he?

I don’t see the evidence for that. I don’t think there’d be much in it but I’d rate Boris narrowly ahead just because Corbyn’s dogma is so predictable.

Corbyn would lead on cuts to the 08.37 Droitwich to Ombersley bus service and Boris would respond in latin about life, love and loss.

Both fucking irritating not much in it tbh.

Chris

Mysticrose said:

If Greening, Bebb and Lee do jump ship to the LibDems, surely that really is 'it' for the Johnson regime?

Might we not see a double-fronted attack?

First Parliament stops No Deal Brexit & extends.

Second, once they're sure of that, we have a VONC or call for election. It's easy to forget in the Brexit farrago that Johnson is virtually without majority for all the other Gov't business. That's why, on balance, I DO think we're heading for a 2019 General Election.

It's possible we could see an extension of Article 50 AND a General Election before Oct 31st.

The EU might very well make a general election the price of extension. It's difficult to see how an extension by itself is going to solve anything.

Foxy

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Though the answer is fairly obvious, a year off post A levels for applications and work experience. It gets the kids to grow up a bit and decide if they really want to go. This may well reduce interest in more marginal courses of little added value.

My Medical School has this policy, and Angela Rayner is correct, it does help the disadvantaged groups to get access.

Peter_the_Punter

Mysticrose said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

I'm not sure about 'slaughter' but I think you're probably right with the premise.

Which says a lot about how rubbish Johnson is at debating.

It must be a long time since we had two such rubbish leaders together of Cons and Labour. At any time in history?

You'd have to go back a long way - Ramsay McDonald era? Certainly I can't recall any period in my lifetime when Government and Official Opposition were so poor.

Betting on the outcome of the next election should be done with caution at the moment because of the huge imponderables. No Overall Majority looks a worthy favorite but no bargain at 1.7.

Mysticrose

MarqueeMark said:

An October/November election with Brexit in the bag, one way or another, leaves the following:
.

I am increasingly confident that Brexit will not be 'in the bag' this autumn

However much HYUFD jumps up and down, Parliament isn't going to let it happen. I suspect Cummings & Co know this too and they're deliberately stoking the fire, preparing for an Us vs Them vote. (Which is the kind of language Cummings speaks.)

The only way an Oct 31st Brexit would have occurred was a modified May deal. Johnson has chosen to throw that out the window and set down his own red lines.

tlg86

Morris_Dancer said:

The Lib Dems are going to be the most interesting party to watch on election night.

Anti-Conservative tactical voting could come roaring back, as Labour types are quite happy to 'reluctantly' abandon Corbyn and support the Lib Dems.

But will the reverse happen where it's needed? I'm not so sure.

DecrepitJohnL

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Not so. The whole business of making and accepting offers need not take more than a month. Foxy knows he will be getting 200 new medical students in October; he will just have to wait a bit longer to find out their names.

ydoethur

Peter_the_Punter said:

Mysticrose said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

I'm not sure about 'slaughter' but I think you're probably right with the premise.

Which says a lot about how rubbish Johnson is at debating.

It must be a long time since we had two such rubbish leaders together of Cons and Labour. At any time in history?

You'd have to go back a long way - Ramsay McDonald era? Certainly I can't recall any period in my lifetime when Government and Official Opposition were so poor.

Betting on the outcome of the next election should be done with caution at the moment because of the huge imponderables. No Overall Majority looks a worthy favorite but no bargain at 1.7.

Home against George Brown would have been a contender, but although they were both party leaders in 1963 their tenures didn't overlap.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Chris, a lead of that approximate size could've happened on polling day had May not run the worst election campaign in living memory. Even a bland, lacklustre campaign would've got her a solid working majority.

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Not so. The whole business of making and accepting offers need not take more than a month. Foxy knows he will be getting 200 new medical students in October; he will just have to wait a bit longer to find out their names.

OK - so somebody knows nothing about university application procedures...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 86, probably not, but it'll still help the Lib Dems quite a bit.

IanB2

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

More than a possibility - I believe that a way forward for who will fight each seat in Wales, with the exception of Ceredigion, has now been identified.

It's a shame there's no time scale on the graph. Whilst the latest odds look fair, it is quite likely this will continue to be a fast moving market. I'd be inclined to sell the Tories on the basis that the two most likely upsets - a further extension or a chaotic no deal exit - both present significant risks for the Tories (or at least will certainly be seen by punters as doing so) and their odds then fall back.

malcolmg

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

I would say there is zero prospect of the SNP standing down anywhere in favour of the Lib Dems.

Less than zero I think.

Peter_the_Punter

Chris said:

Mysticrose said:

If Greening, Bebb and Lee do jump ship to the LibDems, surely that really is 'it' for the Johnson regime?

Might we not see a double-fronted attack?

First Parliament stops No Deal Brexit & extends.

Second, once they're sure of that, we have a VONC or call for election. It's easy to forget in the Brexit farrago that Johnson is virtually without majority for all the other Gov't business. That's why, on balance, I DO think we're heading for a 2019 General Election.

It's possible we could see an extension of Article 50 AND a General Election before Oct 31st.

The EU might very well make a general election the price of extension. It's difficult to see how an extension by itself is going to solve anything.

Could the EU extend A50 unilaterally? It seems illogical to me but I recall someone on here saying it could.

If they can, it would make sense from their perspective, because of the prospect of a Leader emerging who would be prepared to negotiate rather than lay down further red lines.

Stuartinromford

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

That's the problem at the moment with making any predictions. Even assuming that B Day is October 31, there's a huge range of possible outcomes.

It could be joyful and triumphant.
It could be like diving into a cold pool of water- an initial shock, but quickly invigorating.
It could be a tar pit, where nothing happens at first, we just get... stuck.
It could be a fiasco that unravels in a week.

You can make a not-totally-stupid case for each of these. (FWIW, my hunch is that something small and unexpected will turn out to make the whole thing fall apart- a black mosquito rather than a black swan, if you like.)

But the reputation of the government come election day could be anything.

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

I would say there is zero prospect of the SNP standing down anywhere in favour of the Lib Dems.

Less than zero I think.

Mathematically that seems improbable. You remind me of the Tory Sec of State for Health who when he was challenged over his failure to achieve zero people waiting more than an hour in A+E replied, 'when you're dealing with very big numbers, 'zero' must mean plus or minus a few.'

IanB2

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The Lib Dems are going to be the most interesting party to watch on election night.

Anti-Conservative tactical voting could come roaring back, as Labour types are quite happy to 'reluctantly' abandon Corbyn and support the Lib Dems.

But will the reverse happen where it's needed? I'm not so sure.

The most prominent remainer Labour MPs might stand some chance.

A lot depends on whether Unite to Remain will give the nod to soft peddle against Remainer Labour MPs. So far this is being denied - the official position is that participation will require give and take, and at national level Labour isn't willing to give. This does deny access to UtR funds for Labour candidates. However as the campaign nears I still think it likely that some degree of soft peddling against Labour remainers is very likely, with this then feeding through to LibDem and Green voters looking to vote tactically.

YBarddCwsc

Foxy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Though the answer is fairly obvious, a year off post A levels for applications and work experience. It gets the kids to grow up a bit and decide if they really want to go. This may well reduce interest in more marginal courses of little added value.

My Medical School has this policy, and Angela Rayner is correct, it does help the disadvantaged groups to get access.

What is the work experience that all these A Level students will do ? I can certainly see your idea being advantageous to Deliveroo and Just Eat.

I think a year off can be advantageous for some students, but it is probably the wealthier ones (whose parents can afford to subsidise them in some travel) that benefit the most. But, for some students, it is just a wasted year doing little or nothing.

I don't think a plan to make a year off compulsory would be popular.

malcolmg

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

It will be because they are crap and doing nothing for Scotland, sockpuppets for CCHQ

MarqueeMark

OblitusSumMe said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Theresa May was a newer thing in terms of occupying the party leadership than Corbyn was in 2017. Didn't do her much good once the campaign started.

Odd that the confidence in Johnson's campaigning abilities did not extend to letting him out of the basement for the Conservative leadership election.

Where was the party benefit in having extended blue-on-blue battles? It was obvious to anyone who knows anything about the Conservatives that Boris was going to win. The strategy was perfect, in choosig his opponent and beyond.

People underestimate Boris all the time - and at their peril. So far he has got all he has wanted. He isn't going to lightly give up any of it.

TOPPING

Stuartinromford said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

That's the problem at the moment with making any predictions. Even assuming that B Day is October 31, there's a huge range of possible outcomes.

It could be joyful and triumphant.
It could be like diving into a cold pool of water- an initial shock, but quickly invigorating.
It could be a tar pit, where nothing happens at first, we just get... stuck.
It could be a fiasco that unravels in a week.

You can make a not-totally-stupid case for each of these. (FWIW, my hunch is that something small and unexpected will turn out to make the whole thing fall apart- a black mosquito rather than a black swan, if you like.)

But the reputation of the government come election day could be anything.

Very good summary and absolutely unarguable

YBarddCwsc

IanB2 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

More than a possibility - I believe that a way forward for who will fight each seat in Wales, with the exception of Ceredigion, has now been identified.

I do not believe that will benefit Plaid Cymru.

IanB2

malcolmg said:

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

I would say there is zero prospect of the SNP standing down anywhere in favour of the Lib Dems.

Less than zero I think.

A deal isn't really needed in Scotland. The SNP are still dominant, Labour flat on its back may be lucky to hold even its current seats, and the Tories are facing losses. The LibDems are well placed to pick up the odd seat against the Tories, otherwise there is every prospect of remain parties' securing a landslide without any formal arrangement. Insofar as Brexit impinges, it will reinforce anti-Tory tactical voting in the Tory held seats.

eek

malcolmg said:

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

I would say there is zero prospect of the SNP standing down anywhere in favour of the Lib Dems.

Less than zero I think.

Some parties have to stand in all seats. The real question is how much campaigning they do in the seat and whether they move their resources to a neighbouring seat instead..

Peter_the_Punter

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Mysticrose said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

MarqueeMark said:

Boris has usurped Corbyn's role as The New Thing in Westminster Politics. And unlike yesterday's Donny Downer of the Left, Boris projects a cheery, avuncular belief in Britain.

I suspect he will have a very good campaign.

Although not if he cowers away from the public a la Theresa May, as he did in Brecon and Radnor.

Corbyn would slaughter Boris in a head-to-head, but it will matter little by comparison to how Brexit shakes out and whether we are talking about a pre or post Brexit GE.

I'm not sure about 'slaughter' but I think you're probably right with the premise.

Which says a lot about how rubbish Johnson is at debating.

It must be a long time since we had two such rubbish leaders together of Cons and Labour. At any time in history?

You'd have to go back a long way - Ramsay McDonald era? Certainly I can't recall any period in my lifetime when Government and Official Opposition were so poor.

Betting on the outcome of the next election should be done with caution at the moment because of the huge imponderables. No Overall Majority looks a worthy favorite but no bargain at 1.7.

Home against George Brown would have been a contender, but although they were both party leaders in 1963 their tenures didn't overlap.

Was Home also a drunk? Is so, we could have called it a clash of the Tight Ones.

OK, time I went. Gotta long journey.

Play nicely everyone.

malcolmg

First round to Salmond

Alex Salmond's £500k legal bill to be paid by taxpayer after botched probe

Court rules the ex-First Minister's expenses from a successful judicial review into how complaints from civl servants were handled should be paid.
The former First Minister has been paid £512,250 to cover his expenses from a successful judicial review into how complaints from civil servants were handled.

The Record told last year how two women had made complaints of sexual misconduct against Salmond dating back to his time as First Minister.

But the findings of the Scottish Government investigation into the allegations were struck down in court after they admitted their own guidelines had been breached by the appointment of an investigating officer with “prior involvement” in the case.
At a hearing in Edinburgh, Lord Pentland said the Scottish Government’s actions were “unlawful in the respect that they were procedurally unfair and that they were tainted with apparent bias”.

Chris

Peter_the_Punter said:

Chris said:

Mysticrose said:

If Greening, Bebb and Lee do jump ship to the LibDems, surely that really is 'it' for the Johnson regime?

Might we not see a double-fronted attack?

First Parliament stops No Deal Brexit & extends.

Second, once they're sure of that, we have a VONC or call for election. It's easy to forget in the Brexit farrago that Johnson is virtually without majority for all the other Gov't business. That's why, on balance, I DO think we're heading for a 2019 General Election.

It's possible we could see an extension of Article 50 AND a General Election before Oct 31st.

The EU might very well make a general election the price of extension. It's difficult to see how an extension by itself is going to solve anything.

Could the EU extend A50 unilaterally? It seems illogical to me but I recall someone on here saying it could.

If they can, it would make sense from their perspective, because of the prospect of a Leader emerging who would be prepared to negotiate rather than lay down further red lines.

They certainly can't extend unilaterally within the terms of the treaty. I'm sure if it turns out catastrophically an emergency deal can be agreed in practice. Assuming our political leadership hasn't got to the stage of being literally stark raving mad.

TOPPING

Listening to R4 this morning, apart from anything else, Hammond nailed the preparations issue. ie if we are "now" much better prepared for no deal (eg Wolfson yesterday) how could Hammond, chancellor until three weeks ago, not have made preparations..

I wish Humphries had picked up IDS on this as he (IDS) a few minutes later charged Hammond with making no preparations.

DecrepitJohnL

YBarddCwsc said:

Foxy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Though the answer is fairly obvious, a year off post A levels for applications and work experience. It gets the kids to grow up a bit and decide if they really want to go. This may well reduce interest in more marginal courses of little added value.

My Medical School has this policy, and Angela Rayner is correct, it does help the disadvantaged groups to get access.

What is the work experience that all these A Level students will do ? I can certainly see your idea being advantageous to Deliveroo and Just Eat.

I think a year off can be advantageous for some students, but it is probably the wealthier ones (whose parents can afford to subsidise them in some travel) that benefit the most. But, for some students, it is just a wasted year doing little or nothing.

I don't think a plan to make a year off compulsory would be popular.

Anecdote based on two London medical students from well-off families: they work in a ski resort for the season then bum round Europe.

IanB2

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

More than a possibility - I believe that a way forward for who will fight each seat in Wales, with the exception of Ceredigion, has now been identified.

I do not believe that will benefit Plaid Cymru.

I'd expect LibDem voters in Labour held seats would be most likely to go PC, except where the Labour MP is very prominently for remain. They aren't going to vote Brexit Tory, nor Brexit Labour, and there aren't any other options.

kjh

tlg86 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The Lib Dems are going to be the most interesting party to watch on election night.

Anti-Conservative tactical voting could come roaring back, as Labour types are quite happy to 'reluctantly' abandon Corbyn and support the Lib Dems.

But will the reverse happen where it's needed? I'm not so sure.

I agree. Bizarrely I was accused of suggesting LDs would vote tactically for Lab a few days ago, when in fact I believe the opposite (I don't know where that came from).

I think Lab has done so much damage to its reputation for Remainers that it is not going to get that tactical vote. Of course that could mean LDs are getting votes where they don't need them.

OblitusSumMe

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Not so. The whole business of making and accepting offers need not take more than a month. Foxy knows he will be getting 200 new medical students in October; he will just have to wait a bit longer to find out their names.

OK - so somebody knows nothing about university application procedures...

Looks like the Irish manage to make the main body of offers after exam results are known, and yet have exam results and university term dates similar to ours. My Irish wife has always thought it was strange that the UK system has offers made before exam results. I don't see why we couldn't change to the Irish system if we wanted to.

http://www.cao.ie/?page=offerdates

It does seem really incompetent that Angela Rayner didn't know about this and wasn't able to refer to it on the radio, though.

YBarddCwsc

DecrepitJohnL said:

Not so. The whole business of making and accepting offers need not take more than a month. Foxy knows he will be getting 200 new medical students in October; he will just have to wait a bit longer to find out their names.

That is nonsense.

Still, parrot it if you wish in the University seats.

Foxy

DecrepitJohnL said:

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Not so. The whole business of making and accepting offers need not take more than a month. Foxy knows he will be getting 200 new medical students in October; he will just have to wait a bit longer to find out their names.

That is too short a timescale.

We transitioned to post age 19 entry over several years. One way to do it is to permit offers on predictions, but to give added points to those with certified results.

It is not only fairer on the students, but also gives certainty for bo th University and student on where they are. There has been a bit rise in unconditional offers for this reason, but makes far better sense post results.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1161540371740024832?s=20

edmundintokyo

Peter_the_Punter said:

Could the EU extend A50 unilaterally? It seems illogical to me but I recall someone on here saying it could.

If they can, it would make sense from their perspective, because of the prospect of a Leader emerging who would be prepared to negotiate rather than lay down further red lines.

No, they need the UK to request an extension, although IIUC it's just about possible that there could be some ambiguity over who speaks for thr UK in matters of Article 50 extensions.

Chris

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

"There is also the possibility of a deal with Plaid and the Greens on the Brecon model to allow a single “Unite to Remain” candidate in key seats."

I cannot see that benefitting Plaid Cymru.

I am sure the LibDems are super-keen, though.

I would say there is zero prospect of the SNP standing down anywhere in favour of the Lib Dems.

Less than zero I think.

Mathematically that seems improbable. You remind me of the Tory Sec of State for Health who when he was challenged over his failure to achieve zero people waiting more than an hour in A+E replied, 'when you're dealing with very big numbers, 'zero' must mean plus or minus a few.'

But it's possible the SNP may be campaigning at less than 110% in some seats.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1161549029047767041?s=20

SandyRentool

YBarddCwsc said:

Foxy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Though the answer is fairly obvious, a year off post A levels for applications and work experience. It gets the kids to grow up a bit and decide if they really want to go. This may well reduce interest in more marginal courses of little added value.

My Medical School has this policy, and Angela Rayner is correct, it does help the disadvantaged groups to get access.

What is the work experience that all these A Level students will do ? I can certainly see your idea being advantageous to Deliveroo and Just Eat.

I think a year off can be advantageous for some students, but it is probably the wealthier ones (whose parents can afford to subsidise them in some travel) that benefit the most. But, for some students, it is just a wasted year doing little or nothing.

I don't think a plan to make a year off compulsory would be popular.

School leavers could spend a year manning the border posts in Northern Ireland.

Mysticrose

Chris said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Chris said:

Mysticrose said:

If Greening, Bebb and Lee do jump ship to the LibDems, surely that really is 'it' for the Johnson regime?

Might we not see a double-fronted attack?

First Parliament stops No Deal Brexit & extends.

Second, once they're sure of that, we have a VONC or call for election. It's easy to forget in the Brexit farrago that Johnson is virtually without majority for all the other Gov't business. That's why, on balance, I DO think we're heading for a 2019 General Election.

It's possible we could see an extension of Article 50 AND a General Election before Oct 31st.

The EU might very well make a general election the price of extension. It's difficult to see how an extension by itself is going to solve anything.

Could the EU extend A50 unilaterally? It seems illogical to me but I recall someone on here saying it could.

If they can, it would make sense from their perspective, because of the prospect of a Leader emerging who would be prepared to negotiate rather than lay down further red lines.

They certainly can't extend unilaterally within the terms of the treaty. I'm sure if it turns out catastrophically an emergency deal can be agreed in practice. Assuming our political leadership hasn't got to the stage of being literally stark raving mad.

The interesting part will be them agreeing to extend on Parliament's mandate (legislation) if Johnson is still PM. The noises from the EU are that they would since this would be the will of UK Parliament.

I suspect though that Parliament might enact the necessary legislation first, and then consider the VONC issue second. Disentangling the two makes a lot of sense and is more likely to win the support of Remainer Tories.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1161523217338703873?s=20

MarqueeMark

SandyRentool said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Foxy said:

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Though the answer is fairly obvious, a year off post A levels for applications and work experience. It gets the kids to grow up a bit and decide if they really want to go. This may well reduce interest in more marginal courses of little added value.

My Medical School has this policy, and Angela Rayner is correct, it does help the disadvantaged groups to get access.

What is the work experience that all these A Level students will do ? I can certainly see your idea being advantageous to Deliveroo and Just Eat.

I think a year off can be advantageous for some students, but it is probably the wealthier ones (whose parents can afford to subsidise them in some travel) that benefit the most. But, for some students, it is just a wasted year doing little or nothing.

I don't think a plan to make a year off compulsory would be popular.

School leavers could spend a year manning the border posts in Northern Ireland.

20,000 being a "Bobby for a Year"?

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1161322465668292608?s=20

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1161322829591322625?s=20

Pulpstar

eek said:

HYUFD said:

The Tories are now back to polling 20 to 23% in Scotland on the latest polls, actually a lower fall from the 29% they got in 2017 than the roughly 11% fall from 42% to 31% they are showing in UK wide polls. In Scotland as in England most of the movement under May was from the Tories to the Brexit Party not the SNP or Corbyn Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs. Boris has now reversed much of the loss to the Brexit Party.

If the Tories lose more seats net in Scotland it will only be because there are fewer Labour seats for them to pick up

That's irrelevant. The bigger question is where do the Tories make up the 10 seats the Tories will loss in Scotland..

Potentially Labour. I'm not saying this will happen but there are 51 target seats available to the Tories on the same swing the SNP need to capture 10 Tory seats. There are about the same number the other way for Corbyn too...

DecrepitJohnL

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

YBarddCwsc said:

edmundintokyo said:

That Labour number looks a little bit too low.

Say the LDs take 20 Remainian seats off Con and various parties get 10 off them in Scotland. That lowers the bar to something like 285. Lab need to hold what they've got, then gain another 10 or so. That's a very modest goal.

Can they hit it? Well, Corbyn is still shit and Boris is probably better at campaigning than TMay but the BXP situation is very unclear, and LDs and ex-Cons could well get behind Corbyn in Lab-Con marginals. I think the number should be bigger than 22%.

That looks very optimistic.

No Labour policy seems to be thought through. For example, Angela Rayner says on radio "Labour wants universities to offer places after exam results" She was then asked how is that to be implemented.

She said "Errr.. we'll have to think"

Actually, it can only be implemented in two ways.

1. A level exams are earlier, say in April. This means that stuff has to be taken out of A Level syllabus, so students are under-prepared when they start University in October.

2. A levels stay the same. But University term starts later, say in January. This leaves students with June-January with nothing much to do. And will be hugely unpopular with Universities.

1 is the worst option, so Labour will probably go with that.

On grounds of remedying "unfairness" (which actually remains to be shown), a dumb policy is advocated without any thought as to how it is to be implemented.

And Labour propose this while holding most of the University seats ....

Not so. The whole business of making and accepting offers need not take more than a month. Foxy knows he will be getting 200 new medical students in October; he will just have to wait a bit longer to find out their names.

OK - so somebody knows nothing about university application procedures...

It is true my THES subscription lapsed last millennium but I think you will find I am right. Possibly next year if Boris calls and loses a snap election.