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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation has CON lead at 4 with just 19% wanting a no deal Br

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation has CON lead at 4 with just 19% wanting a no deal Brexit

NEW: Preferred Brexit outcome, updated:

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited August 2019
    First unlike Boris when he discovers reality.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Second. Like, who knows?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    I noticed that Survation has support for no deal suddenly plummeting. They also have the result of a further referendum now at 55/45 for Remain.
  • Third - like the great William III
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    First third.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2019
    So if, as seems likely, Boris ducks the election that was supposed to get him out of the no deal Brexit hole, where next? What is plan B? What is plan Z?
  • IanB2 said:

    I noticed that Survation has support for no deal suddenly plummeting. They also have the result of a further referendum now at 55/45 for Remain.

    But nobody actually wants a no-deal - that 19pc are just playing the pollsters game and trying to make Bozo look good.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    IanB2 said:

    I noticed that Survation has support for no deal suddenly plummeting. They also have the result of a further referendum now at 55/45 for Remain.

    On one level that could be representative selection.

    However, I don't think it is. As No Deal starts to actually appear on the horizon I think people are looking at things and going hmm it may not be a good idea.

    Equally holidays abroad are currently more expensive.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    RobD said:

    First third.

    One for the corrections and clarifications dept. :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Also in the Survation poll:

    Regarding the expected outcome of the Brexit process, 15% expect the UK to remain in the EU, and 16% think leaving with a deal is the most likely outcome. 49% predicted a no-deal Brexit. 21% said they do not know.

    Predicted outcome (vs May)

    Remain: 15 (-11)
    Leave with Deal 16 (-4)
    Leave No Deal: 49 (+15)
    Don't Know: 21 (-)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bernie showing a little upward movement in the latest polls (National & S Carolina).

    But in Iowa he's fourth and just a smidgen above Buttigieg.

    The big issue for Bernie is that he's largely fishing in the same pool as Elizabeth Warren, and she's been a lot more impressive than he has.
    Except that he is also to some extent (and counterintuitively) fishing in the same pool as Biden. And he hasn't, recently.
    True; there's a certain type of person who wants a geriatric incontinent candidate to face Trump.
    Biden is showing his age a hell of a lot more than Bernie.

    Out of interest what makes you say Warren has been more impressive?
    Also according to 270towin, he's third in Iowa, 4% below Warren. Where do you get fourth?
    Monmouth University, 1-4 August, Sanders 9% in fourth. (Which is the latest poll, and is A-rated by 538)

    Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)

    Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.

    Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
    Elizabeth Warren  +62
    Pete Buttigieg +57
    Joe Biden +54
    Kamala Harris +49
    Cory Booker +40
    Julián Castro +34
    Amy Klobuchar +33
    Bernie Sanders +25
    Beto O’Rourke +19
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bernie showing a little upward movement in the latest polls (National & S Carolina).

    But in Iowa he's fourth and just a smidgen above Buttigieg.

    The big issue for Bernie is that he's largely fishing in the same pool as Elizabeth Warren, and she's been a lot more impressive than he has.
    Except that he is also to some extent (and counterintuitively) fishing in the same pool as Biden. And he hasn't, recently.
    True; there's a certain type of person who wants a geriatric incontinent candidate to face Trump.
    Biden is showing his age a hell of a lot more than Bernie.

    Out of interest what makes you say Warren has been more impressive?
    Also according to 270towin, he's third in Iowa, 4% below Warren. Where do you get fourth?
    Monmouth University, 1-4 August, Sanders 9% in fourth. (Which is the latest poll, and is A-rated by 538)

    Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)

    Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.

    Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
    Elizabeth Warren  +62
    Pete Buttigieg +57
    Joe Biden +54
    Kamala Harris +49
    Cory Booker +40
    Julián Castro +34
    Amy Klobuchar +33
    Bernie Sanders +25
    Beto O’Rourke +19
    Those Net Appproval numbers for O'Rourke and Kloubachar are AWFUL in Iowa.

    Buttigieg surely worth a small punt.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited August 2019
    IanB2 said:

    I noticed that Survation has support for no deal suddenly plummeting. They also have the result of a further referendum now at 55/45 for Remain.

    Does not surprise me! A woman at at the the airport this morning was very negative about Brexit! She was non european in origin, which you would think would make her in favour!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837

    Also in the Survation poll:

    Regarding the expected outcome of the Brexit process, 15% expect the UK to remain in the EU, and 16% think leaving with a deal is the most likely outcome. 49% predicted a no-deal Brexit. 21% said they do not know.

    Predicted outcome (vs May)

    Remain: 15 (-11)
    Leave with Deal 16 (-4)
    Leave No Deal: 49 (+15)
    Don't Know: 21 (-)

    That's me. The change that is. No Deal is coming and we'd better get prepared for it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    IanB2 said:

    I noticed that Survation has support for no deal suddenly plummeting. They also have the result of a further referendum now at 55/45 for Remain.

    Does not surprise me! A woman at asgop in the airport this morning was very negative about Brexit! She was non european in origin, which ylou would think would make her in favour!
    Why would you think that?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bernie showing a little upward movement in the latest polls (National & S Carolina).

    But in Iowa he's fourth and just a smidgen above Buttigieg.

    The big issue for Bernie is that he's largely fishing in the same pool as Elizabeth Warren, and she's been a lot more impressive than he has.
    Except that he is also to some extent (and counterintuitively) fishing in the same pool as Biden. And he hasn't, recently.
    True; there's a certain type of person who wants a geriatric incontinent candidate to face Trump.
    Biden is showing his age a hell of a lot more than Bernie.

    Out of interest what makes you say Warren has been more impressive?
    Also according to 270towin, he's third in Iowa, 4% below Warren. Where do you get fourth?
    Monmouth University, 1-4 August, Sanders 9% in fourth. (Which is the latest poll, and is A-rated by 538)

    Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)

    Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.

    Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
    Elizabeth Warren  +62
    Pete Buttigieg +57
    Joe Biden +54
    Kamala Harris +49
    Cory Booker +40
    Julián Castro +34
    Amy Klobuchar +33
    Bernie Sanders +25
    Beto O’Rourke +19
    Those Net Appproval numbers for O'Rourke and Kloubachar are AWFUL in Iowa.

    Buttigieg surely worth a small punt.
    Pete definitely needs "small town America" as a constituency.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited August 2019
    FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    alex. said:

    Johnson's chief "negotiator" was sent to Brussels where he was asked "hypothetically", whether the removal of the backstop whilst leaving all other things the same would pass the House of Commons. The answer he gave them was "no".

    What's the source for that?

    Because if true, it's pretty poor behaviour by Johnson.
    It was posted on here several days ago, via some lengthy twitter feed analysis in Ireland (I can't remember who). It was the underlying analysis about why the EU was now seeing no deal as it's absolutely central scenario. The follow up analysis was that, in addition to the removal of the backstop, the UK was apparently looking to reopen discussions on various "level playing field" provisions of the Withdrawal agreement which would apparently prevent them pursuing a route of becoming "Singapore upon Thames" etc etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bernie showing a little upward movement in the latest polls (National & S Carolina).

    But in Iowa he's fourth and just a smidgen above Buttigieg.

    The big issue for Bernie is that he's largely fishing in the same pool as Elizabeth Warren, and she's been a lot more impressive than he has.
    Except that he is also to some extent (and counterintuitively) fishing in the same pool as Biden. And he hasn't, recently.
    True; there's a certain type of person who wants a geriatric incontinent candidate to face Trump.
    Biden is showing his age a hell of a lot more than Bernie.

    Out of interest what makes you say Warren has been more impressive?
    Also according to 270towin, he's third in Iowa, 4% below Warren. Where do you get fourth?
    Monmouth University, 1-4 August, Sanders 9% in fourth. (Which is the latest poll, and is A-rated by 538)

    Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)

    Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.

    Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
    Elizabeth Warren  +62
    Pete Buttigieg +57
    Joe Biden +54
    Kamala Harris +49
    Cory Booker +40
    Julián Castro +34
    Amy Klobuchar +33
    Bernie Sanders +25
    Beto O’Rourke +19
    Those Net Appproval numbers for O'Rourke and Kloubachar are AWFUL in Iowa.

    Buttigieg surely worth a small punt.
    So far I am green on everyone but Biden.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,722
    IanB2 said:

    I noticed that Survation has support for no deal suddenly plummeting. They also have the result of a further referendum now at 55/45 for Remain.

    I'm one of the "Referendum has to be obeyed" crowd, but I do wonder what it's going to be like in say 10 years if the Remain(rejoin?) figure slowly creeps up to over 60%.
  • Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited August 2019
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bernie showing a little upward movement in the latest polls (National & S Carolina).

    But in Iowa he's fourth and just a smidgen above Buttigieg.

    The big issue for Bernie is that he's largely fishing in the same pool as Elizabeth Warren, and she's been a lot more impressive than he has.
    Except that he is also to some extent (and counterintuitively) fishing in the same pool as Biden. And he hasn't, recently.
    True; there's a certain type of person who wants a geriatric incontinent candidate to face Trump.
    Biden is showing his age a hell of a lot more than Bernie.

    Out of interest what makes you say Warren has been more impressive?
    Also according to 270towin, he's third in Iowa, 4% below Warren. Where do you get fourth?
    Monmouth University, 1-4 August, Sanders 9% in fourth. (Which is the latest poll, and is A-rated by 538)

    Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)

    Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.

    Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
    Elizabeth Warren  +62
    Pete Buttigieg +57
    Joe Biden +54
    Kamala Harris +49
    Cory Booker +40
    Julián Castro +34
    Amy Klobuchar +33
    Bernie Sanders +25
    Beto O’Rourke +19
    Those Net Appproval numbers for O'Rourke and Kloubachar are AWFUL in Iowa.

    Buttigieg surely worth a small punt.
    So far I am green on everyone but Biden.
    So basically, you're all green?

    The first fruits of the new electoral alliance perhaps? :smile:
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    So if, as seems likely, Boris ducks the election that was supposed to get him out of the no deal Brexit hole, where next? What is plan B? What is plan Z?

    The whole plan appears to have him being forced into an election (other than the other plan of the EU magically conceding a load of points to produce a new deal, without having the faintest idea on what Johnson's objectives are for a new deal, or what he can get through Parliament). I'm not sure he has a plan for Parliament failing to bring one about and letting him impale himself on his own promises.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Corbyn secretly favours full Brexit anyway and hopes to profit from the chaos of No Deal.

    He will do nothing to stop it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    ?

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1161689350347939841?s=21
  • CatMan said:

    IanB2 said:

    I noticed that Survation has support for no deal suddenly plummeting. They also have the result of a further referendum now at 55/45 for Remain.

    I'm one of the "Referendum has to be obeyed" crowd, but I do wonder what it's going to be like in say 10 years if the Remain(rejoin?) figure slowly creeps up to over 60%.
    We will get a Government committed to holding another referendum and there will be a vote. I suspect that Rejoin will lose but thst doesnt mean there should not be a vote.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.

    There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    No, an election is too risky. He's going to have to either No Deal or agree an extension for fresh talks. I predict the latter.

    The Great Man is trapped!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The Survation poll appears to be conducted on UK basis - unlike most polls which are confined to GB. To obtain the GB equivalent circa 1% to be added to vote shares for main parties.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bernie showing a little upward movement in the latest polls (National & S Carolina).

    But in Iowa he's fourth and just a smidgen above Buttigieg.

    The big issue for Bernie is that he's largely fishing in the same pool as Elizabeth Warren, and she's been a lot more impressive than he has.
    Except that he is also to some extent (and counterintuitively) fishing in the same pool as Biden. And he hasn't, recently.
    True; there's a certain type of person who wants a geriatric incontinent candidate to face Trump.
    Biden is showing his age a hell of a lot more than Bernie.

    Out of interest what makes you say Warren has been more impressive?
    Also according to 270towin, he's third in Iowa, 4% below Warren. Where do you get fourth?
    Monmouth University, 1-4 August, Sanders 9% in fourth. (Which is the latest poll, and is A-rated by 538)

    Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)

    Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.

    Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
    Elizabeth Warren  +62
    Pete Buttigieg +57
    Joe Biden +54
    Kamala Harris +49
    Cory Booker +40
    Julián Castro +34
    Amy Klobuchar +33
    Bernie Sanders +25
    Beto O’Rourke +19
    I'm hoping Sanders withdraws and backs Gabbard, which some have suggested. I'm firmly of the view that Gabbard can beat Trump, and I don't see any of the others doing so. Totally talking my book of course, but my book is the way it is because of the above.

    Trump changed the game, and the Democrats have to change it back, and that needs someone in some sense different. Or so goes my thinking. House not on it either way.

    Re:header - Corbyn must look at the Con+Brexit numbers with foreboding. That could be all Con. A hard call to risk a vonc if what you're nailed on to get is five years of Boris.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Corbyn secretly favours full Brexit anyway and hopes to profit from the chaos of No Deal.

    He will do nothing to stop it.
    But if we leave it would be Boris's fault and as we are out of the EU Corbyn can create his utopia unopposed.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The Liberal Democrats are propping up the Tories in lots of local councils, not least in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Will they be leaving these arrangements to increase pressure on the Tories regarding No Deal?

    There are all sorts of bizarre arrangements in local councils, to ensure that business gets done. When I was a student in the NE, back in around 1960 there was alleged to be an informal arrangement in one council between the local Ratepayers and the Communists.
    Liberal Democrats are propping up the Tories in lots of local councils, not least in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Will they be leaving these arrangements to increase pressure on the Tories regarding No Deal?
    There are all sorts of bizarre arrangements in local councils, to ensure that business gets done. When I was a student in the NE, back in around 1960 there was alleged to be an informal arrangement in one council between the local Ratepayers and the Communists.
    Yes, I do see the squirrel.

    However, returning to my original query: the Liberal Democrats are propping up the Tories in lots of local councils, not least in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Will they be leaving these arrangements to increase pressure on the Tories regarding No Deal?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited August 2019
    ..
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It would be useful to see a forced choice between Remain and Leave With No Deal. How would that 29% split? Would it help clarify the thinking of the don’t knows?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    eek said:

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Corbyn secretly favours full Brexit anyway and hopes to profit from the chaos of No Deal.

    He will do nothing to stop it.
    But if we leave it would be Boris's fault and as we are out of the EU Corbyn can create his utopia unopposed.
    My point is he’ll do nothing to lead all alliance in Parliament to stop it, as many Labour Party members and MPs would like him to.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bernie showing a little upward movement in the latest polls (National & S Carolina).

    But in Iowa he's fourth and just a smidgen above Buttigieg.

    The big issue for Bernie is that he's largely fishing in the same pool as Elizabeth Warren, and she's been a lot more impressive than he has.
    Except that he is also to some extent (and counterintuitively) fishing in the same pool as Biden. And he hasn't, recently.
    True; there's a certain type of person who wants a geriatric incontinent candidate to face Trump.
    Biden is showing his age a hell of a lot more than Bernie.

    Out of interest what makes you say Warren has been more impressive?
    Also according to 270towin, he's third in Iowa, 4% below Warren. Where do you get fourth?
    Monmouth University, 1-4 August, Sanders 9% in fourth. (Which is the latest poll, and is A-rated by 538)

    Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)

    Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.

    Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
    Elizabeth Warren  +62
    Pete Buttigieg +57
    Joe Biden +54
    Kamala Harris +49
    Cory Booker +40
    Julián Castro +34
    Amy Klobuchar +33
    Bernie Sanders +25
    Beto O’Rourke +19
    Those Net Appproval numbers for O'Rourke and Kloubachar are AWFUL in Iowa.

    Buttigieg surely worth a small punt.
    The Kamala Harris layers will be nervous. Is Mayor Pete the rural Kamala? If Amy is ahead of Bernie, isn't she doing surprisingly well given she barely registered at the first debate? Likewise Cory Booker. Castro is the new Beto.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745


    However, returning to my original query: the Liberal Democrats are propping up the Tories in lots of local councils, not least in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Will they be leaving these arrangements to increase pressure on the Tories regarding No Deal?

    Labour-LD arrangements continued during the Coalition years. I'm not sure if there is a point here about Swinson retaining East Dumbartonshire but local issues are largely divorced from a GE in my experience.

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Wibbly wobbly Boris bottom!

    Parliament is looking increasingly powerless to prevent No Deal, especially as Jezza is hardly busting a gut.

    Only the EU can save Boris now. In return for ditching his red lines, I reckon Boris will beg the EU to 'reopen' negotiations provided that they keep mum about its being his idea. The EU will probably shrug and say 'whatever'.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,722


    We will get a Government committed to holding another referendum and there will be a vote. I suspect that Rejoin will lose but thst doesnt mean there should not be a vote.

    I think there would be massive opposition to holding a referendum. No Tory government would call for one, and Labour would be too scared too ("Northern Leave Seats" and all that)
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Corbyn secretly favours full Brexit anyway and hopes to profit from the chaos of No Deal.

    He will do nothing to stop it.
    But if we leave it would be Boris's fault and as we are out of the EU Corbyn can create his utopia unopposed.
    My point is he’ll do nothing to lead all alliance in Parliament to stop it, as many Labour Party members and MPs would like him to.
    Very quickly someone else will step into the gap

    Which Tom Watson seems to be doing already...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited August 2019

    Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    Indeed. The irony though is he says that their "collaboration" is what is preventing a deal from happening. So perhaps they should get the ERG on board as well! After all they are all working towards the same thing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    His project of uniting the country is going well then.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    CatMan said:


    We will get a Government committed to holding another referendum and there will be a vote. I suspect that Rejoin will lose but thst doesnt mean there should not be a vote.

    I think there would be massive opposition to holding a referendum. No Tory government would call for one, and Labour would be too scared too ("Northern Leave Seats" and all that)
    And the LibDems won't bother having a referendum. They'll just apply to rejoin. After all we didn't have one in the first place.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.

    There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.

    Last night, Alastair, you said something along the lines of the deal on the table was derailed by leavers. The deal on the table was mostly derailed by Labour, and they've now come out as remainers.

    'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.

    With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bernie showing a little upward movement in the latest polls (National & S Carolina).

    But in Iowa he's fourth and just a smidgen above Buttigieg.

    The big issue for Bernie is that he's largely fishing in the same pool as Elizabeth Warren, and she's been a lot more impressive than he has.
    Except that he is also to some extent (and counterintuitively) fishing in the same pool as Biden. And he hasn't, recently.
    True; there's a certain type of person who wants a geriatric incontinent candidate to face Trump.
    Biden is showing his age a hell of a lot more than Bernie.

    Out of interest what makes you say Warren has been more impressive?
    Also according to 270towin, he's third in Iowa, 4% below Warren. Where do you get fourth?
    Monmouth University, 1-4 August, Sanders 9% in fourth. (Which is the latest poll, and is A-rated by 538)

    Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)

    Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.

    Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
    Elizabeth Warren  +62
    Pete Buttigieg +57
    Joe Biden +54
    Kamala Harris +49
    Cory Booker +40
    Julián Castro +34
    Amy Klobuchar +33
    Bernie Sanders +25
    Beto O’Rourke +19
    Those Net Appproval numbers for O'Rourke and Kloubachar are AWFUL in Iowa.

    Buttigieg surely worth a small punt.
    The Kamala Harris layers will be nervous. Is Mayor Pete the rural Kamala? If Amy is ahead of Bernie, isn't she doing surprisingly well given she barely registered at the first debate? Likewise Cory Booker. Castro is the new Beto.
    The Kamala Harris layers are pleased right now.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Yes because as I've said since the beginning the EU negotiates with the Government NOT the House of Commons. The central question is whether there is any mechanism to "force" Boris Johnson to ask for an extension. IF Parliament voted for him so to do would he have to comply?

    If there is no vote or guidance from the Commons for whatever reason, Boris has a free hand and nothing has changed in that regard just as May had a free hand to seek a further extension (twice).

    Hence we have the talk about a No Confidence vote which would force a temporary hiatus and IF an anti-No Deal majority could be formed in the Commons (which seems unlikely), that grouping could form a caretaker Government agree a five year extension (let's say) and then call a new GE.

    The corollary of all this is Boris has the responsibility alone if we leave without a Deal which I understood you opposed as do I.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    stodge said:


    However, returning to my original query: the Liberal Democrats are propping up the Tories in lots of local councils, not least in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Will they be leaving these arrangements to increase pressure on the Tories regarding No Deal?

    Labour-LD arrangements continued during the Coalition years. I'm not sure if there is a point here about Swinson retaining East Dumbartonshire but local issues are largely divorced from a GE in my experience.

    Elected councilors have to find a way to keep things moving, it’s about local issues and personalities but it’s a damn sight healthier than a one party local authority. Nothing to do with national politics until the next election.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:

    I noticed that Survation has support for no deal suddenly plummeting. They also have the result of a further referendum now at 55/45 for Remain.

    Does not surprise me! A woman at at the the airport this morning was very negative about Brexit! She was non european in origin, which you would think would make her in favour!
    Not all Brits support Brexit you know!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    ?

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1161689350347939841?s=21

    Yes and not as reported earlier
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Corbyn secretly favours full Brexit anyway and hopes to profit from the chaos of No Deal.

    He will do nothing to stop it.
    But if we leave it would be Boris's fault and as we are out of the EU Corbyn can create his utopia unopposed.
    My point is he’ll do nothing to lead all alliance in Parliament to stop it, as many Labour Party members and MPs would like him to.
    Very quickly someone else will step into the gap

    Which Tom Watson seems to be doing already...
    But, can he command a majority?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    stodge said:

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Yes because as I've said since the beginning the EU negotiates with the Government NOT the House of Commons. The central question is whether there is any mechanism to "force" Boris Johnson to ask for an extension. IF Parliament voted for him so to do would he have to comply?

    If there is no vote or guidance from the Commons for whatever reason, Boris has a free hand and nothing has changed in that regard just as May had a free hand to seek a further extension (twice).

    Hence we have the talk about a No Confidence vote which would force a temporary hiatus and IF an anti-No Deal majority could be formed in the Commons (which seems unlikely), that grouping could form a caretaker Government agree a five year extension (let's say) and then call a new GE.

    The corollary of all this is Boris has the responsibility alone if we leave without a Deal which I understood you opposed as do I.
    If Parliament legislated that we couldn't leave before, say, March of next year (by amending the Withdrawal Bill), then it would become UK law, which the PM would be presumably(?) legally obliged to uphold. I'm not sure why Johnson would have to "request" an extension in such circumstances - all it would require would be for the European Council to agree one, with or without a request. As long as they proposed one post March, Johnson would be acting against UK law if he vetoed it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Omnium said:

    I'm hoping Sanders withdraws and backs Gabbard, which some have suggested. I'm firmly of the view that Gabbard can beat Trump, and I don't see any of the others doing so. Totally talking my book of course, but my book is the way it is because of the above.

    Trump changed the game, and the Democrats have to change it back, and that needs someone in some sense different. Or so goes my thinking. House not on it either way.

    I personally think the Democrat candidate matters very little compared to the economic environment. If the US is in recession, then pretty much any Democrat gets elected, and if it is growing at 2018 rates, then pretty much any Democrat gets defeated.

    Re Ms Gabbard, I think the problem she has is that Sanders is a stubborn old man. If he backed her, then she'd be in with a real shout, but right now, she's a way away from qualifying for the September debates. And if you don't qualify for the debates, you're really not in the race.
  • stodge said:

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Yes because as I've said since the beginning the EU negotiates with the Government NOT the House of Commons. The central question is whether there is any mechanism to "force" Boris Johnson to ask for an extension. IF Parliament voted for him so to do would he have to comply?

    If there is no vote or guidance from the Commons for whatever reason, Boris has a free hand and nothing has changed in that regard just as May had a free hand to seek a further extension (twice).

    Hence we have the talk about a No Confidence vote which would force a temporary hiatus and IF an anti-No Deal majority could be formed in the Commons (which seems unlikely), that grouping could form a caretaker Government agree a five year extension (let's say) and then call a new GE.

    The corollary of all this is Boris has the responsibility alone if we leave without a Deal which I understood you opposed as do I.
    I agree with your comments and your last sentence.

    I do not know how many times over the months I have accused the 498 mps who voted for A50 as being incompetent and not knowing what they were doing.

    No amount of deflection from remainers makes this point invalid

    And I just want to leave with a deal. No deal and no Brexit are polar opposites and both must lose in the name of democracy
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    nichomar said:

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    ?

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1161689350347939841?s=21

    Yes and not as reported earlier
    European Council has to agree, and the PM is the representative on the European Council.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Liberal Democrats are propping up the Tories in lots of local councils, not least in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Will they be leaving these arrangements to increase pressure on the Tories regarding No Deal?

    There are all sorts of bizarre arrangements in local councils, to ensure that business gets done. When I was a student in the NE, back in around 1960 there was alleged to be an informal arrangement in one council between the local Ratepayers and the Communists.
    Liberal Democrats are propping up the Tories in lots of local councils, not least in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Will they be leaving these arrangements to increase pressure on the Tories regarding No Deal?
    There are all sorts of bizarre arrangements in local councils, to ensure that business gets done. When I was a student in the NE, back in around 1960 there was alleged to be an informal arrangement in one council between the local Ratepayers and the Communists.
    Yes, I do see the squirrel.

    However, returning to my original query: the Liberal Democrats are propping up the Tories in lots of local councils, not least in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire. Will they be leaving these arrangements to increase pressure on the Tories regarding No Deal?
    Probably not
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Omnium said:

    Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.

    There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.

    Last night, Alastair, you said something along the lines of the deal on the table was derailed by leavers. The deal on the table was mostly derailed by Labour, and they've now come out as remainers.

    'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.

    With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
    The deal on the table would have sailed through if it had not been trashed by Leavers. Remainers had no motivation to invest political capital in it when all that would happen is that they would be setting up the next target of claims of betrayal from the headbangers. The headbangers’ support was needed to ensure it commanded Leaver legitimacy.

    Conservative Remainers backed it in the main. Labour Remainers were not going to break ranks when the deal was obviously not going to pass. Why take unnecessary grief?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    It would be useful to see a forced choice between Remain and Leave With No Deal. How would that 29% split? Would it help clarify the thinking of the don’t knows?

    In a hypothetical second referendum just between No Deal and Revoke it might be that Revoke over-performed. Perhaps 60-40 to Revoke.

    I think some soft Leavers would either abstain or go for Revoke (with a massive nose peg and no pleasure at all) in the privacy of the ballot box due to where we’ve ended up.

    That would still leave a very angry and disillusioned 40% however, which wouldn’t go away and would affect British politics for years.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    stodge said:

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Yes because as I've said since the beginning the EU negotiates with the Government NOT the House of Commons. The central question is whether there is any mechanism to "force" Boris Johnson to ask for an extension. IF Parliament voted for him so to do would he have to comply?

    If there is no vote or guidance from the Commons for whatever reason, Boris has a free hand and nothing has changed in that regard just as May had a free hand to seek a further extension (twice).

    Hence we have the talk about a No Confidence vote which would force a temporary hiatus and IF an anti-No Deal majority could be formed in the Commons (which seems unlikely), that grouping could form a caretaker Government agree a five year extension (let's say) and then call a new GE.

    The corollary of all this is Boris has the responsibility alone if we leave without a Deal which I understood you opposed as do I.
    I agree with your comments and your last sentence.

    I do not know how many times over the months I have accused the 498 mps who voted for A50 as being incompetent and not knowing what they were doing.

    No amount of deflection from remainers makes this point invalid

    And I just want to leave with a deal. No deal and no Brexit are polar opposites and both must lose in the name of democracy
    I don’t disagree that throughout this whole process things have been done without proper thought and consideration and there is certainly blame attached to this, however I think its a symptom of the whole thing. The whole thing has been done without a plan.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    It would be useful to see a forced choice between Remain and Leave With No Deal. How would that 29% split? Would it help clarify the thinking of the don’t knows?

    In a hypothetical second referendum just between No Deal and Revoke it might be that Revoke over-performed. Perhaps 60-40 to Revoke.

    I think some soft Leavers would either abstain or go for Revoke (with a massive nose peg and no pleasure at all) in the privacy of the ballot box due to where we’ve ended up.

    That would still leave a very angry and disillusioned 40% however, which wouldn’t go away and would affect British politics for years.
    You know my view that this is a complete disaster. There is no good outcome from here.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    It would be useful to see a forced choice between Remain and Leave With No Deal. How would that 29% split? Would it help clarify the thinking of the don’t knows?

    In a hypothetical second referendum just between No Deal and Revoke it might be that Revoke over-performed. Perhaps 60-40 to Revoke.

    I think some soft Leavers would either abstain or go for Revoke (with a massive nose peg and no pleasure at all) in the privacy of the ballot box due to where we’ve ended up.

    That would still leave a very angry and disillusioned 40% however, which wouldn’t go away and would affect British politics for years.
    But there’s no escape from that. If we leave with no deal, the same is true in reverse.
  • stodge said:

    Sky reporting that Mark Sedwill has responded to Corbyn's letter re purdah in an election period and he has confirmed that he will ensure purdah is followed.

    However, significantly he says that exit from the EU comes under A50 and the Withdrawal Act and as such it is a matter for the PM to seek an extension and for the EU to agree, but the decision to seek the extension or not is the PM's

    I am no expert but that does seem to play into Boris's hand

    Yes because as I've said since the beginning the EU negotiates with the Government NOT the House of Commons. The central question is whether there is any mechanism to "force" Boris Johnson to ask for an extension. IF Parliament voted for him so to do would he have to comply?

    If there is no vote or guidance from the Commons for whatever reason, Boris has a free hand and nothing has changed in that regard just as May had a free hand to seek a further extension (twice).

    Hence we have the talk about a No Confidence vote which would force a temporary hiatus and IF an anti-No Deal majority could be formed in the Commons (which seems unlikely), that grouping could form a caretaker Government agree a five year extension (let's say) and then call a new GE.

    The corollary of all this is Boris has the responsibility alone if we leave without a Deal which I understood you opposed as do I.
    I agree with your comments and your last sentence.

    I do not know how many times over the months I have accused the 498 mps who voted for A50 as being incompetent and not knowing what they were doing.

    No amount of deflection from remainers makes this point invalid

    And I just want to leave with a deal. No deal and no Brexit are polar opposites and both must lose in the name of democracy
    I don’t disagree that throughout this whole process things have been done without proper thought and consideration and there is certainly blame attached to this, however I think its a symptom of the whole thing. The whole thing has been done without a plan.
    Agreed
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911

    Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    It's going to get a lot worse as Johnson/Cummings and their media fanboys realise they are trapped on a No Deal course and time is running out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Omnium said:

    Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.

    There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.

    Last night, Alastair, you said something along the lines of the deal on the table was derailed by leavers. The deal on the table was mostly derailed by Labour, and they've now come out as remainers.

    'May's deal' has to be a lesson is how not to negotiate. I'm not quite sure that I've managed to digest that lesson yet.

    With regards to your post. Hesitant Remainers are probably under-represented. If so then that would explain stronger LD performance.
    The deal on the table would have sailed through if it had not been trashed by Leavers. Remainers had no motivation to invest political capital in it when all that would happen is that they would be setting up the next target of claims of betrayal from the headbangers. The headbangers’ support was needed to ensure it commanded Leaver legitimacy.

    Conservative Remainers backed it in the main. Labour Remainers were not going to break ranks when the deal was obviously not going to pass. Why take unnecessary grief?
    I’m not seeing why many Labour MPs would suddenly have flocked to back the WA if they’d sensed it was going to pass by a handful of votes because Steve Baker and Nigel Dodds started behaving themselves.

    They didn’t do that with any of the enabling Brexit legislation, which all narrowly passed.

    I expect instead they’d have opposed it vigorously and then moved the trench warfare onto the transition period, blamed any problems on the WA (that they didn’t vote for) and then hope they could bring down the Government and take over the future FTA.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Bernie showing a little upward movement in the latest polls (National & S Carolina).

    But in Iowa he's fourth and just a smidgen above Buttigieg.

    The big issue for Bernie is that he's largely fishing in the same pool as Elizabeth Warren, and she's been a lot more impressive than he has.
    Except that he is also to some extent (and counterintuitively) fishing in the same pool as Biden. And he hasn't, recently.
    True; there's a certain type of person who wants a geriatric incontinent candidate to face Trump.
    Biden is showing his age a hell of a lot more than Bernie.

    Out of interest what makes you say Warren has been more impressive?
    Also according to 270towin, he's third in Iowa, 4% below Warren. Where do you get fourth?
    Monmouth University, 1-4 August, Sanders 9% in fourth. (Which is the latest poll, and is A-rated by 538)

    Firehouse Strategies, 23-25 July, Sanders 11% in fourth. (Which is the second most recent poll)

    Now, earlier polls show better results for Sanders, but those numbers would likely see him leave Iowa will very few delegates.

    Most concerning for Sanders will be his poor "net approval" rating among Iowa Democrats. Here they are folks...
    Elizabeth Warren  +62
    Pete Buttigieg +57
    Joe Biden +54
    Kamala Harris +49
    Cory Booker +40
    Julián Castro +34
    Amy Klobuchar +33
    Bernie Sanders +25
    Beto O’Rourke +19
    Those Net Appproval numbers for O'Rourke and Kloubachar are AWFUL in Iowa.

    Buttigieg surely worth a small punt.
    The Kamala Harris layers will be nervous. Is Mayor Pete the rural Kamala? If Amy is ahead of Bernie, isn't she doing surprisingly well given she barely registered at the first debate? Likewise Cory Booker. Castro is the new Beto.
    Those are approval ratings, not vote shares.

    I think the approval numbers show the effective ceiling for a candidates support, and you can see that Warren and Buttigieg have the highest ceilings, while Sanders, Kloubachar and O'Rourke have the lowest.

    Kloubachar is from the next door state of Minnesota, so should be doing better here.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745


    But, can he command a majority?

    It doesn't matter. Once again, the EU deals with the British Government and it wouldn't matter to them if it was Johnson, Corbyn or Swinson sitting on the other side of the table,

    The UK agreed a WA with the EU which the EU has ratified and will not re-negotiate. Our failure to ratify the WA is, in the EU's eyes, the sole reason we are heading for a No Deal exit on 31/10.

    There are three options as there have always been - ratify the WA in the Commons, seek a further extension or seek to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU on the terms existing as of 23/6/16.

    Johnson is gambling on the EU to blink particularly if the Irish get worried about the economic impact of a No Deal exit. Corbyn thinks stupidly the EU will tear up everything and start again just because he leads the UK Government - they won't in both instances.

    The big development today has been the markets seeing the recession warning lights approaching. The timing could be awful for Trump's re-election but it will impact here and in Europe as well.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    It would be useful to see a forced choice between Remain and Leave With No Deal. How would that 29% split? Would it help clarify the thinking of the don’t knows?

    In a hypothetical second referendum just between No Deal and Revoke it might be that Revoke over-performed. Perhaps 60-40 to Revoke.

    I think some soft Leavers would either abstain or go for Revoke (with a massive nose peg and no pleasure at all) in the privacy of the ballot box due to where we’ve ended up.

    That would still leave a very angry and disillusioned 40% however, which wouldn’t go away and would affect British politics for years.
    As is the converse leaving is going to leave the UK with 40% remainers disillusioned with what has happened and will affect British politics for years.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    It would be useful to see a forced choice between Remain and Leave With No Deal. How would that 29% split? Would it help clarify the thinking of the don’t knows?

    In a hypothetical second referendum just between No Deal and Revoke it might be that Revoke over-performed. Perhaps 60-40 to Revoke.

    I think some soft Leavers would either abstain or go for Revoke (with a massive nose peg and no pleasure at all) in the privacy of the ballot box due to where we’ve ended up.

    That would still leave a very angry and disillusioned 40% however, which wouldn’t go away and would affect British politics for years.
    But there’s no escape from that. If we leave with no deal, the same is true in reverse.
    Yes, I know, but I expect the latter to assert itself to Rejoin in that case within 5-10 years.

    I think Brexit wouldn’t be put on the table again for a very long time (if at all) in the reverse scenario. It’d just fester as a nasty running sore, and affect GE turnouts, engagement in our civic politics and legitimacy of future Governments.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    stodge said:


    But, can he command a majority?

    It doesn't matter. Once again, the EU deals with the British Government and it wouldn't matter to them if it was Johnson, Corbyn or Swinson sitting on the other side of the table,

    The UK agreed a WA with the EU which the EU has ratified and will not re-negotiate. Our failure to ratify the WA is, in the EU's eyes, the sole reason we are heading for a No Deal exit on 31/10.

    There are three options as there have always been - ratify the WA in the Commons, seek a further extension or seek to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU on the terms existing as of 23/6/16.

    Johnson is gambling on the EU to blink particularly if the Irish get worried about the economic impact of a No Deal exit. Corbyn thinks stupidly the EU will tear up everything and start again just because he leads the UK Government - they won't in both instances.

    The big development today has been the markets seeing the recession warning lights approaching. The timing could be awful for Trump's re-election but it will impact here and in Europe as well.
    No-one is going to back down, and it will always be some other Johnnys fault.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Is it correct that Boris can take us out of EU before October 31st unilaterally? If so, if it looks like he’s about to be VONCed he could just take us out anyway overnight?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    nichomar said:

    It would be useful to see a forced choice between Remain and Leave With No Deal. How would that 29% split? Would it help clarify the thinking of the don’t knows?

    In a hypothetical second referendum just between No Deal and Revoke it might be that Revoke over-performed. Perhaps 60-40 to Revoke.

    I think some soft Leavers would either abstain or go for Revoke (with a massive nose peg and no pleasure at all) in the privacy of the ballot box due to where we’ve ended up.

    That would still leave a very angry and disillusioned 40% however, which wouldn’t go away and would affect British politics for years.
    As is the converse leaving is going to leave the UK with 40% remainers disillusioned with what has happened and will affect British politics for years.

    Probably one of the most obvious and pointless posts of the day, but err.. yes.

    Obviously.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    OllyT said:

    Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    It's going to get a lot worse as Johnson/Cummings and their media fanboys realise they are trapped on a No Deal course and time is running out.
    It's the members of the Cabinet I feel sorry for. Initially they were ordered to say No Deal was all fine and dandy; now No Deal is indeed a catastrophe but it's all the EU's/Remainers' fault. Their poor heads must be spinning!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited August 2019
    So only 43% of voters are diehard Remainers then, 48% still want to Leave the EU either with a Deal or with No Deal
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    It would be useful to see a forced choice between Remain and Leave With No Deal. How would that 29% split? Would it help clarify the thinking of the don’t knows?

    In a hypothetical second referendum just between No Deal and Revoke it might be that Revoke over-performed. Perhaps 60-40 to Revoke.

    I think some soft Leavers would either abstain or go for Revoke (with a massive nose peg and no pleasure at all) in the privacy of the ballot box due to where we’ve ended up.

    That would still leave a very angry and disillusioned 40% however, which wouldn’t go away and would affect British politics for years.
    If we end up with either No Deal or Revoke then we all lose.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited August 2019
    The problem with the 19% wanting No Deal finding is that the "Want A deal" alternative is abstract. ie 19% object to ANY Deal. A larger percentage, including Boris Johnson himself, object to THE ONLY Deal that has already been negotiated.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    So only 43% of voters are diehard Remainers then, 48% still want to Leave the EU either with a Deal or with No Deal

    So no majority for either. Great.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited August 2019
    I think this question has been asked and answered. It's not possible.

    Anyway, what's the point of having a NI referendum to agree the (NI only) backstop after we have already exited?

    Also a no deal Brexit when nobody is expecting it would certainly NOT lead to a majority. If you think we aren't prepared for it on October 31st, how could anybody possibly be prepared for it on Aug 24th? Both on a business level and an individual level. Just one minor example - there'd be people stuck on holiday in Europe suddenly finding their Driving licences were invalid overnight. Who couldn't get emergency health treatment. Who might not be able to get back.

    Basically about as bonkers an idea as anyone has come up with!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anyway
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    And yet so utterly predictable. Johnson always goes low, he is a thoroughly nasty piece of work. And he is fighting a populist campaign with Remainers cast as the enemy within.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Is it correct that Boris can take us out of EU before October 31st unilaterally? If so, if it looks like he’s about to be VONCed he could just take us out anyway overnight?

    This chap thinks not.

    https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1161678045692014594?s=21
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anyway
    I'm unclear HYUFD, perhaps you can explain, I struggle with unusual English words.

    What does "bicameral and bipartisan basis" mean?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    alex. said:

    I think this question has been asked and answered. It's not possible.

    Anyway, what's the point of having a NI referendum to agree the (NI only) backstop after we have already exited?

    Also a no deal Brexit when nobody is expecting it would certainly NOT lead to a majority. If you think we aren't prepared for it on October 31st, how could anybody possibly be prepared for it on Aug 24th? Both on a business level and an individual level. Just one minor example - there'd be people stuck on holiday in Europe suddenly finding their Driving licences were invalid overnight. Who couldn't get emergency health treatment. Who might not be able to get back.

    Basically about as bonkers an idea as anyone has come up with!
    Bonkers = Boris
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    So only 43% of voters are diehard Remainers then, 48% still want to Leave the EU either with a Deal or with No Deal


    But 55% would vote remain in a second referendum from the same poll so sto being selective
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    HYUFD said:

    So only 43% of voters are diehard Remainers then, 48% still want to Leave the EU either with a Deal or with No Deal

    So no majority for either. Great.
    I want to leave with a deal. I don't support "deal or no deal". Can live with "Remain or deal". So that's one person less than 48%
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    And yet so utterly predictable. Johnson always goes low, he is a thoroughly nasty piece of work. And he is fighting a populist campaign with Remainers cast as the enemy within.
    Regardless, for all but 3 days of my life I have been a citizen of the European Union so I am proud to be called a collaborator.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    So only 43% of voters are diehard Remainers then, 48% still want to Leave the EU either with a Deal or with No Deal


    But 55% would vote remain in a second referendum from the same poll so sto being selective
    Remainers and their pesky facts.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    Hi Casino, Yesterday morning you wrote a post about Schengen. I couldn't get access to post at the time. Just wanted to say that though although I am a fan of Schengen I thought your post on some of the issues with it was very good.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912

    Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    And yet so utterly predictable. Johnson always goes low, he is a thoroughly nasty piece of work. And he is fighting a populist campaign with Remainers cast as the enemy within.
    Regardless, for all but 3 days of my life I have been a citizen of the European Union so I am proud to be called a collaborator.
    Yeah me too. Hopefully the opportunity for some treasonous acts will present itself.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    HYUFD said:

    Not if the Republicans retake the House next November and in any case Boris is committed to avoiding a hard border in Ireland anyway
    Just as a matter of interest, how often has the party of the President retaken the House after losing it at the midterms?
  • Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    And yet so utterly predictable. Johnson always goes low, he is a thoroughly nasty piece of work. And he is fighting a populist campaign with Remainers cast as the enemy within.
    Regardless, for all but 3 days of my life I have been a citizen of the European Union so I am proud to be called a collaborator.
    Ha ha - poor collabrators

    This life that I have
    Is all that I have
    And this life that I have is yours

    poor souls
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    And yet so utterly predictable. Johnson always goes low, he is a thoroughly nasty piece of work. And he is fighting a populist campaign with Remainers cast as the enemy within.
    Regardless, for all but 3 days of my life I have been a citizen of the European Union so I am proud to be called a collaborator.
    Ha ha - poor collabrators

    This life that I have
    Is all that I have
    And this life that I have is yours

    poor souls
    You what?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    There seems to be a high rate of illiteracy on here tonight. The key phrase in Sedwell's letter is that Brexit is a matter for "the European Council.... and Parliament"

    I see no mention of "Prime Minister" or "Boris"
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    It would be useful to see a forced choice between Remain and Leave With No Deal. How would that 29% split? Would it help clarify the thinking of the don’t knows?

    In a hypothetical second referendum just between No Deal and Revoke it might be that Revoke over-performed. Perhaps 60-40 to Revoke.

    I think some soft Leavers would either abstain or go for Revoke (with a massive nose peg and no pleasure at all) in the privacy of the ballot box due to where we’ve ended up.

    That would still leave a very angry and disillusioned 40% however, which wouldn’t go away and would affect British politics for years.
    More Leavers support Leave with a deal to Leave without (47% to 38%). Conservatives favour the former by 54% to 21%, and TBP supporters are evenly divided. Conversely, Remain supporters overwhelmingly favour Remain.

    So, if there were a forced choice between Remain and Leave without a deal, it would likely be very tight. Very few people give Remain as their second choice. Far more give Leave without a deal, or Leave with a deal.

    At the start of the year, Survation had a poll giving a forced choice between Remain/No Deal, which had the former ahead by 51/49. Opinium tend to give narrow leads in the other direction.
  • There seems to be a high rate of illiteracy on here tonight. The key phrase in Sedwell's letter is that Brexit is a matter for "the European Council.... and Parliament"

    I see no mention of "Prime Minister" or "Boris"

    It was explained by Sky when they reported the letter. Exit from the EU comes under A50 and to gain an extension the PM has to request it and the EU agree.

    Sky indicated it was the PM decision
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Note that this poll, in common with many others, needed to be reweighted because Survation did not find enough Leavers. This may mean that some Leavers are hard to find, it may mean that some Leavers have forgotten or are lying about how they voted or it may mean that some Leavers are now shy.

    There is a distinct possibility that Remainers’ views are being discounted too much in such polls.

    So we could be at 60:40 in favour of Remain and have no way of knowing?

    If that is the case the Tories would lose any general election very heavily.
  • Boris is now calling Remainers collaborators. This is getting seriously out of hand and dangerous.

    And yet so utterly predictable. Johnson always goes low, he is a thoroughly nasty piece of work. And he is fighting a populist campaign with Remainers cast as the enemy within.
    Regardless, for all but 3 days of my life I have been a citizen of the European Union so I am proud to be called a collaborator.
    Ha ha - poor collabrators

    This life that I have
    Is all that I have
    And this life that I have is yours

    poor souls
    You what?
    Don't worry your little head - others will get it - if they've quaffed 5 pints or so
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    FPT
    JBriskinindyref2 said:

    Big man Sam Cosgrove out injured for tomorrows pittordie clash. Pretty disastrous news.

    They are useless anyway, be lucky to get 3rd place this year
This discussion has been closed.