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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour has to face up to the blindingly obvious – the Corbyn b
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour has to face up to the blindingly obvious – the Corbyn brand is busted
Deltapoll July 27 2019
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But also she said the party would campaign for Remain vs a no deal. Has anyone told Len?
edit/ falling fast
On the above Deltapoll the LDs are almost as close to Corbyn Labour as Corbyn Labour are to the Tories in a strong 3rd but the LDs are in 4th 21% behind non Corbyn Labour
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/action-fraud-investigation-victims-misled-and-mocked-as-police-fail-to-investigate-wlh8c6rs6
I see industrial contraction in Germany making it slide towards recession, US policy makers pushing against a piece of string, Japan still having Japanese demographics, UK continued political uncertainty, China's challenges too hard to explain in one clause, and EM insufficiently decoupled from the rest. Where's the global growth in 2020?
And one downside for Swinson, or at least for the LibDems, is they cannot pick up seats in a general election if there is no election.
It will need more than Corbyn going to change the fact that, for many on the centre-left, voting Labour is now a deeply unpleasant notion.
Well, at least good old Corbys has livened up the August phony war.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1161903171230416896
I'm unconvinced it is because he really does want to stop No Deal.
The other side of the coin is that - if Labour is determined to stop no deal and if they accept the GOMOO is simply a letter-writing government - it shouldn't need to be Corbyn (who has hardly been leading the charge) as PM. The Tories supporting such an arrangement are making the biggest sacrifice, and the Tories achieved the biggest minority vote in the last GE, so some elder Tory who is leaving politics would be a reasonable choice.
I wish I'd never heard of Pidcock.
With the greatest of respect the stumbling block is Corbyn.
Would you support a GONU led by someone else who would attempt to stop no deal
It is the best way out by a distance
I think the real crunch point comes in the first few days and weeks of November following Brexit. Do those opposed to the government co-operate to avoid and mitigate issues as they arise, or do they try and play a crisis for political advantage?
Certain parts of the opposition (and commentariat) currently give the impression that they’ll be loudly cheering every job loss or industrial disruption - which I don’t think will be a good look if it comes to that.
1) He doesn't lose anything by this.
2) Worried about the lib dems gettign support with remainers, so seeking to stop any moves to them
3) See's this as his best way of getting to be PM
Even 'if' it's a caketaker role, being PM would give him huge power and a huge boost for a GE.
The way she should be playing it is to say, "The caretaker doesn't matter, we're not Jeremy Corbyn fans but we need to stop No Deal, if you can find enough Tory votes then you'll have ours". That makes the $GRANDEE option easier to sell to Labour MPs in the event that it turns out that Jeremy Corbyn is unable to attract the support of lifelong Conservative MPs.
On OGH point:
All this means is that there are no downsides for Jo Swinson when she snubs Corbyn’s latest opportunistic initiatives.
I'm not so sure. "Get lost Grandpa" may be remembered (and certainly will be presented by some) as "Lib Dems refused to help stop Brexit".
Personally a No Deal screwup is what Boris and the Tories deserve.
For example, the LDs (very weak in Wales) could have not fielded a candidate at the Euros and told their supporters to vote Plaid Cymru. They did not.
The LDs are only interested in others making sacrifices for them.
That is why the LD/Green/Plaid Cymru Remain alliance does not include the SNP. Or Labour Remainers.
The LDs are interested in smaller parties immolating themselves for the greater LD good, but they have no interest in self-immolation themselves.
The LDs are playing politics -- they want to be the party that stops Brexit.
They don't want the Labour Party to be the party that stops it. Otherwise the LDs will be back polling 5 per cent in the polls again.
But they need to coalesce behind someone. Anyone. Sylvia Hermon?
Seems obvious to me that would distort the market - indeed that was the intention - and so not outrageous to suggest that distortion invalidates it as a predictive diagnostic. But it might not.
I think Michael and Sarah may have something to say about that
A more serious proposition is Ian Blackford.
I think the argument is that "day to day green measures", while not an irrelevance, go nowhere near what is required to address the continuing rise in atmospheric CO2.
Assuming the scientists are correct (or even assuming a 20% probability they are, given the consequences), we have scant decades to completely re-engineer the globe's energy systems. That is simply not going to happen without the governments of world's largest economies adopting it as a priority, and directing the spending 2-3% of GDP every year for the next three decades to fund it.
That political will is not going to come from within the existing system, absent some very heavy prodding.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/14/labour-bloc-plans-radical-move-to-push-through-brexit-deal
It would mean his brinksmanship approach has caused MPs to blink, no-deal disaster goes away, LibDem bubble is burst, Labour split, and he presents himself as the great unifier who by dynamic leadership broke the impasse. And no need for an early election.
ERG won't be happy and a few, like Rees-Mogg, may resign from Cabinet, but relatively small beer. Farage will fume. But Boris can re-present himself as liberal one-nation Tory which, I think, he aspires to be.
Probably all fantasy though.
Corbyn has been found out and cannot get support to win a vonc with him as PM
The majority of the Labour Party thinks Brexit is going to be a failure so why would they want to be holding the reigns of power at precisely the moment it happens, particularly with Corbyn at the helm?
I don’t really care who a caretaker PM is, we need an election.
And if that doesn’t solve matters, another election.
It’s called parliamentary democracy and we used to be rather good at it.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1161594446229774338
How many years have I been trotting this out?
Election now please.
We Tories will happily still mention Corbyn Labour every time on the doorsteps in return for you mentioning Bozo Tories as there is only one winner from that!
It's the same reasoning they didn't pass the WA.
If parliament is 100% serious about preventing No Deal and parliament believes leaving the EU without a deal would be an utter disaster and Corbyn is the only route out of that hole, they should swallow their pride and not hesitate to put him in.
But people didn't swallow their pride to pass the WA so they probably won't to do this.
The Labour front bench is pushing their opponents to a very very hard place indeed. If they didn't want to head to this place, they could have passed the WA.
*Instead they have a choice betwixt the dreadful instead of the catastrophic
**Corbyn is the Leader of the Opposition, so it is the constitutional norm he gets first dibs on attempting to form a Gov't if Johnson is VoNCed.
I'd never vote for Corbyn in a million years, but I'd give a thought to sticking him in now and then bringing him down on Nov 2nd.
Boris offers a free vote
A good outcome for the country but politically challenging for Boris
Needs (a) some concession from Europe - no matter how meaningless - to give cover; and (b) trust. I can quite easily see Boris taking the view this is an attempt by Labour to screw him. They’ve promised support and not delivered many times
That is the bind we are in as a country.
These things would have been so had Corbyn kept his party unity with a whipped abstention on May's Shit Deal, on each of the three previous occasions it came to the House.
But Corbyn wants maximum disruption from a No Del Brexit. Out of chaos, power.
To satisfy everyone that person is going to need to be reasonably non-threatening to all parts of the coalition. The likeliest is a Labour grandee (Margaret Beckett is a good call).
But you could easily see how it ends up being someone like Caroline Lucas, Ian Blackford or Liz Saville-Roberts.
Are they really saying that they will sit idly by and allow no deal because of their personal antipathy to Corbyn?
Where do the other 130-140 MPs come from if Corbyn and Johnson aren’t playing ball?
It is still the best way of avoiding a giant mess. It is further away than ever though - theres been no reason for BoJo to reject so thoroughly something he himself voted for except that he was anticipating the prospect of someone suggesting bringing it back.
Because whatever they say the brexiteers and BXP dont want to leave on 31 Oct do or die. If they did they might accept the WA, as Boris did. They want to leave on 31 oct only in certain ways, which is not as catchy.