Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
I don't think 14 Tories supporting a VONC is out of the question.
A handful yes. 14 I think highly unlikely.
Backing a VONC in your own party is the parliamentary equivalent of pushing the big red button: you can threaten it and stomp your feet, but at 1 minute to midnight are you ready to push it?
Boris already has his finger on the "big red button".
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Really? What has he done that makes you think he's less trustworthy than Boris?
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
Yes. Day 1 VoNC in Johnson tabled by Corbyn Day 2 VOC for Corbyn as PM fails. Day 3 VOC for "Someone Else" fails by 50 votes (25 MPs) because Not enough Tory and Labour MPs have the spine to vote against their party. Days 4 to 10 total panic from the 400 MPs who all really hate the idea of no deal brexit. Day 11 VOC for "Someone Else" is finaly passed with 380 in favour. Day 12 Brexit delayed, ... once more.
It’s a process. Brexit will soon be done and we can get back to important stuff like cones hotlines and Cool Britannia....
Imagine thinking Brexit will be ‘done’ 😂
The withdrawal agreement is the closest we can get to having Brexit "done" quickly (Well the FTAs will take years to work out but there would be goodwill on both sides with the EU and transition would be extended till it was all sorted I think). It'd be smooth for business too.
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Really? What has he done that makes you think he's less trustworthy than Boris?
The problem with Corbyn isn’t that he is untrustworthy, it’s the things you might trust him to do.
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
No. I have assumed for a long time - since March, in fact when I wrote a header on this - that the ERG has won and there will be a No Deal exit.
It’s a process. Brexit will soon be done and we can get back to important stuff like cones hotlines and Cool Britannia....
Imagine thinking Brexit will be ‘done’ 😂
Of course it will be done. Brexit is a process. Being a country not in the EU is the result. There is nothing scary about being a country not in the EU. In fact it's the norm. It's the process that's got people losing it. It's like going to the dentist.
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Really? What has he done that makes you think he's less trustworthy than Boris?
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
Yes. Day 1 VoNC in Johnson tabled by Corbyn Day 2 VOC for Corbyn as PM fails. Day 3 VOC for "Someone Else" fails by 50 votes (25 MPs) because Not enough Tory and Labour MPs have the spine to vote against their party. Days 4 to 10 total panic from the 400 MPs who all really hate the idea of no deal brexit. Day 11 VOC for "Someone Else" is finaly passed with 380 in favour. Day 12 Brexit delayed, ... once more.
So 4 PMs in 2 weeks?
FTPA requires VOC to be “in Her Majesty’s Govt”. Can’t put the cart before the Horse.
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
Yes. Day 1 VoNC in Johnson tabled by Corbyn Day 2 VOC for Corbyn as PM fails. Day 3 VOC for "Someone Else" fails by 50 votes (25 MPs) because Not enough Tory and Labour MPs have the spine to vote against their party. Days 4 to 10 total panic from the 400 MPs who all really hate the idea of no deal brexit. Day 11 VOC for "Someone Else" is finaly passed with 380 in favour. Day 12 Brexit delayed, ... once more.
Excluding LDs and Nats etc, that's about 300 Lab and Con MPs who are going to lose the party whip and find their political careers coming to an end. Seems unlikely. Also a parliament that can't agree on anything doesn't seem likely to be able to agree on any candidate for PM. One can see an embarrassing series of votes for Clarke, Harman, Lucas, etc with each being defeated in turn.
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
Yes. Day 1 VoNC in Johnson tabled by Corbyn Day 2 VOC for Corbyn as PM fails. Day 3 VOC for "Someone Else" fails by 50 votes (25 MPs) because Not enough Tory and Labour MPs have the spine to vote against their party. Days 4 to 10 total panic from the 400 MPs who all really hate the idea of no deal brexit. Day 11 VOC for "Someone Else" is finaly passed with 380 in favour. Day 12 Brexit delayed, ... once more.
"And Little Eris stepped into his private boat and waved good-bye and sailed back over a year and in and out of weeks and through a day and into the night of his very own room where he found his supper waiting for him ..
It’s a process. Brexit will soon be done and we can get back to important stuff like cones hotlines and Cool Britannia....
Imagine thinking Brexit will be ‘done’ 😂
The withdrawal agreement is the closest we can get to having Brexit "done" quickly (Well the FTAs will take years to work out but there would be goodwill on both sides with the EU and transition would be extended till it was all sorted I think). It'd be smooth for business too.
And of course remains pretty much the only pretty much sure fire route to avoiding no deal.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
Yes. Day 1 VoNC in Johnson tabled by Corbyn Day 2 VOC for Corbyn as PM fails. Day 3 VOC for "Someone Else" fails by 50 votes (25 MPs) because Not enough Tory and Labour MPs have the spine to vote against their party. Days 4 to 10 total panic from the 400 MPs who all really hate the idea of no deal brexit. Day 11 VOC for "Someone Else" is finaly passed with 380 in favour. Day 12 Brexit delayed, ... once more.
Excluding LDs and Nats etc, that's about 300 Lab and Con MPs who are going to lose the party whip and find their political careers coming to an end. Seems unlikely. Also a parliament that can't agree on anything doesn't seem likely to be able to agree on any candidate for PM. One can see an embarrassing series of votes for Clarke, Harman, Lucas, etc with each being defeated in turn.
If 300 Lab and Con MPs lose the party whips the Lab and Tory parties will be in complete meltdown immediately before a GE. There is no way Corbyn could survive such a huge purge of MPs and most Labour constituency parties are strongly remain, so very few will deselect their sitting MP for having acted to avoid a No Deal Brexit.
Quite. He may be a “temporary PM” whilst an election is called, but once the ballots are cast and the results are known, then in a massive hung Parliament scenario he is “temporary” no more.
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Really? What has he done that makes you think he's less trustworthy than Boris?
The problem with Corbyn isn’t that he is untrustworthy, it’s the things you might trust him to do.
Despite what Mike says, I do believe there are 10-20 Tory MPs who are willing to bring BoJo down. What they are not willing to do is put Corbyn into no. 10. But since, as you correctly point out, there aren't the numbers to do that, the rebels will think it's reasonably safe to act. (btw I bet one thing that encouraged Sarah Wollaston to join the LibDems was Jo Swinson's promise not to support a Corbyn premiership.)
Now of course all this discussion is going on because of the risk of No Deal. And a Corbyn caretaker government isn't the only game in town. I sincerely believe that if, for example, we end up having an autumn General Election, parliament will find a way to force Boris to delay Brexit.
Wrong! Wollaston tonight said Corbyn was "the lesser of two evils".
Was she discussing him and Stalin ?
Are you making a comparison between Brexit and Stalin?
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
Yes. Day 1 VoNC in Johnson tabled by Corbyn Day 2 VOC for Corbyn as PM fails. Day 3 VOC for "Someone Else" fails by 50 votes (25 MPs) because Not enough Tory and Labour MPs have the spine to vote against their party. Days 4 to 10 total panic from the 400 MPs who all really hate the idea of no deal brexit. Day 11 VOC for "Someone Else" is finaly passed with 380 in favour. Day 12 Brexit delayed, ... once more.
So 4 PMs in 2 weeks?
FTPA requires VOC to be “in Her Majesty’s Govt”. Can’t put the cart before the Horse.
Johson remains PM until "Someone Else" who remains defacto PM until the GE five weeks later.
The VoNC is in "Her Majesty's Government" any VOC would state who is to be the new PM ie Government.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
Quite. He may be a “temporary PM” whilst an election is called, but once the ballots are cast and the results are known, then in a massive hung Parliament scenario he is “temporary” no more.
But if there is a GE with a hung parliament then that is the "will of the people".
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
No. I have assumed for a long time - since March, in fact when I wrote a header on this - that the ERG has won and there will be a No Deal exit.
I, on the other hand, assumed that our politicians were not insane enough to let a No Deal Brexit happen. I then came to the reluctant conclusion that they were insane enough (or enough of them were).
My present position is that, although I hate the thought of No Deal and the damage it will do, we may have to do it in order to finally prove that the country is poorer and worse off out of the EU than in it.
And all this horsesh*t about "taking back control", "blue passports" and "sovereignty" will turn out be nothing more than cover for English Nationalists and xenophobes.
And no Leavers will have the spine to say "Oh cr*p! We were wrong"
Off topic, the series on Radio 4 about August 1969 when the Troubles started in Northern Ireland is superb.
A must hear.
I endorse this message. It is called "Breakdown". Both fascinating and disturbing how a society can so rapidly spiral out of anyone's control.
I remember watching on TV with my father. It was my political awakening. He was in despair. He remembered the Irish Civil War when he was a child. There was an infamous IRA attack on the police barracks in the town where his family lived.
And here we are 50 years later: a journalist is killed during riots and despite all the shock her killer has still not been caught and, much like then, the rest of the country does not much care about NI until it will force itself onto the PM’s agenda.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
I take the point, but there has to be something to be said for the decision not to pussyfoot around. Politicking for the sake of it can put voters off just as much as unwelcome honesty.
Off topic, the series on Radio 4 about August 1969 when the Troubles started in Northern Ireland is superb.
A must hear.
I endorse this message. It is called "Breakdown". Both fascinating and disturbing how a society can so rapidly spiral out of anyone's control.
I remember watching on TV with my father. It was my political awakening. He was in despair. He remembered the Irish Civil War when he was a child. There was an infamous IRA attack on the police barracks in the town where his family lived.
And here we are 50 years later: a journalist is killed during riots and despite all the shock her killer has still not been caught and, much like then, the rest of the country does not much care about NI until it will force itself onto the PM’s agenda.
One think that struck me. I am young enough that bombs in NI were simply everyday occurrences growing up, was the use of terror by ordinary people, going down the street torching houses, one after another. Terrorists, and terrorism don't emerge from a vacuum.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
Aren’t the Lib Dems well placed to take seats off the Tories? Not much chance of that if they’re seen as putting Corbyn into No 10.
Quite. He may be a “temporary PM” whilst an election is called, but once the ballots are cast and the results are known, then in a massive hung Parliament scenario he is “temporary” no more.
Early in the Spanish Civil War, the Nationalist Generals were meeting to elect a Generalissimo to head the junta. Franco's former commanding officer who knew him best opposed his election and said that 'if you give him Spain, he will believe it is his and will never allow anyone to replace him'.
Once Corbyn and Momentum are in power, they will not relinquish it lightly.
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
Yes. Day 1 VoNC in Johnson tabled by Corbyn Day 2 VOC for Corbyn as PM fails. Day 3 VOC for "Someone Else" fails by 50 votes (25 MPs) because Not enough Tory and Labour MPs have the spine to vote against their party. Days 4 to 10 total panic from the 400 MPs who all really hate the idea of no deal brexit. Day 11 VOC for "Someone Else" is finaly passed with 380 in favour. Day 12 Brexit delayed, ... once more.
So 4 PMs in 2 weeks?
FTPA requires VOC to be “in Her Majesty’s Govt”. Can’t put the cart before the Horse.
Johson remains PM until "Someone Else" who remains defacto PM until the GE five weeks later.
The VoNC is in "Her Majesty's Government" any VOC would state who is to be the new PM ie Government.
No, the VOC is also in the government. No names. The wording is prescribed in the Act.
Off topic, the series on Radio 4 about August 1969 when the Troubles started in Northern Ireland is superb.
A must hear.
I endorse this message. It is called "Breakdown". Both fascinating and disturbing how a society can so rapidly spiral out of anyone's control.
I remember watching on TV with my father. It was my political awakening. He was in despair. He remembered the Irish Civil War when he was a child. There was an infamous IRA attack on the police barracks in the town where his family lived.
And here we are 50 years later: a journalist is killed during riots and despite all the shock her killer has still not been caught and, much like then, the rest of the country does not much care about NI until it will force itself onto the PM’s agenda.
Early in 1967 [Paul] Rose became PPS to Barbara Castle, Minister of Transport. When he returned from a visit to the Six Counties, she asked why he was concerned about Northern Ireland rather than Vietnam or Rhodesia. Rose recalled: “I just looked at her with incomprehension and said: 'You’ll see when they start shooting one another.’” Two years later, she diaried her “astonishment to learn ... that British troops have moved into Derry.”
Header is spot on. VONC will not carry. Johnson is safe from that.
The truth is that there are many MPs who want to stop Brexit but are more concerned with stopping Corbyn being PM.
This means that Brexit is unlikely to be stopped.
Who to blame? Corbyn for being Corbyn? Or those pretending that stopping Brexit is their priority?
The latter will say the former.
That is my point. If the Devil could stop Brexit, I'd support him. Then we can remove him.
Quite. And even though I'm no Corbynista if allowing him to be a caretaker PM for a short time is the only way to stop no deal then so be it.
What if he reneged on it, once installed?
I said that this afternoon and was labelled an idiot. Just so you know to be prepared...
Quite right. Once Corbyn and McDonnell are in numbers 10 and 11 they'll find a reason(s) not to give them up. Corbyn ignored a VONC by his MPs, he'll ignore anything designed to prise him from No 10. He's proved effective in seizing control of the Labour Party, he'll try the same with government, irrespective of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Corbyn is wholly untrustworthy. No way should he be allowed anywhere near No 10.
Fine. Has anyone got any other ideas to stop No Deal Brexit, any Brexit without Corbyn and about 50 of his flunkies ? And, please be brief !
No. I have assumed for a long time - since March, in fact when I wrote a header on this - that the ERG has won and there will be a No Deal exit.
I, on the other hand, assumed that our politicians were not insane enough to let a No Deal Brexit happen. I then came to the reluctant conclusion that they were insane enough (or enough of them were).
My present position is that, although I hate the thought of No Deal and the damage it will do, we may have to do it in order to finally prove that the country is poorer and worse off out of the EU than in it.
And all this horsesh*t about "taking back control", "blue passports" and "sovereignty" will turn out be nothing more than cover for English Nationalists and xenophobes.
And no Leavers will have the spine to say "Oh cr*p! We were wrong"
I know a few Leave voters who have changed their minds.
But, yes, you’re right about leaders of the Leave campaign.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
Aren’t the Lib Dems well placed to take seats off the Tories? Not much chance of that if they’re seen as putting Corbyn into No 10.
And no chance at all until there is actually an election.
This is pretty good for Sanders, who'd been around 12-13% in the last couple of polls, but it's terrible for Biden who's now 11 points adrift of Warren.
And Harris would likely get no delegates on this poll. She'd be dead and buried.
As I've said several times, I don't think a VONC is going to work, for the simple reason that more than half of all MPs rightly think that Corbyn is totally unsuited to be anywhere near any lever of power (and that includes many of his own MPs), but Corbyn's support is need for to put anyone else in place. So this is all shadow-boxing.
Having said that, even in narrow terms the pundits don't seem to have quite got the hang of the mechanics of installing an alternative government. For one thing, everyone seems to have forgotten than MPs can abstain in a VONC, and several of them probably would; that needs to be factored into any estimates of numbers. For another thing, it's a VONC (and then a VOC) in a government, not a PM. Not only would MPs have to agree on a PM, they'd also have to agree on the other main roles - what parties are they going to come from?
Off topic, the series on Radio 4 about August 1969 when the Troubles started in Northern Ireland is superb.
A must hear.
I endorse this message. It is called "Breakdown". Both fascinating and disturbing how a society can so rapidly spiral out of anyone's control.
I remember watching on TV with my father. It was my political awakening. He was in despair. He remembered the Irish Civil War when he was a child. There was an infamous IRA attack on the police barracks in the town where his family lived.
And here we are 50 years later: a journalist is killed during riots and despite all the shock her killer has still not been caught and, much like then, the rest of the country does not much care about NI until it will force itself onto the PM’s agenda.
One think that struck me. I am young enough that bombs in NI were simply everyday occurrences growing up, was the use of terror by ordinary people, going down the street torching houses, one after another. Terrorists, and terrorism don't emerge from a vacuum.
Half a century of discrimination against a community. Britain reaped what it sowed.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
The reaction amongst the avowedly anti-Brexit groups (diehard Remainers?), has been almost universally negative. Only the committed LDs seem to mounting any kind of defence. It seems simply mad to be ruling options out. The LDs have not had to play party political games thus far, and been able to portray themselves as the pure anti-Brexiteers. No longer it seems.
Quite. He may be a “temporary PM” whilst an election is called, but once the ballots are cast and the results are known, then in a massive hung Parliament scenario he is “temporary” no more.
Early in the Spanish Civil War, the Nationalist Generals were meeting to elect a Generalissimo to head the junta. Franco's former commanding officer who knew him best opposed his election and said that 'if you give him Spain, he will believe it is his and will never allow anyone to replace him'.
Once Corbyn and Momentum are in power, they will not relinquish it lightly.
This is scaremongering nonsense. In a hung parliament, Corbyn (or anyone else) can easily be VONC'd.
Without triggering the boring constitutional minutiae brigade too much, can’t we just Vonc the odious incompetent clown Johnson and see what happens? There are several candidates for caretaker PM who could feasibly command a Gnu. Harman is one, Clarke another, Hammond and Starmer might also carry the house.
Quite. He may be a “temporary PM” whilst an election is called, but once the ballots are cast and the results are known, then in a massive hung Parliament scenario he is “temporary” no more.
Early in the Spanish Civil War, the Nationalist Generals were meeting to elect a Generalissimo to head the junta. Franco's former commanding officer who knew him best opposed his election and said that 'if you give him Spain, he will believe it is his and will never allow anyone to replace him'.
Once Corbyn and Momentum are in power, they will not relinquish it lightly.
This is scaremongering nonsense. In a hung parliament, Corbyn (or anyone else) can easily be VONC'd.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
Aren’t the Lib Dems well placed to take seats off the Tories? Not much chance of that if they’re seen as putting Corbyn into No 10.
Are they anti Brexit or not? If they are, it shouldn't matter whether they win or lose seats over it. Or are they anti-Brexit in certain circumstances only? The ERG were willing to see the Tories fall to 9% to get their way. And they seem to be winning the war.
Off topic, the series on Radio 4 about August 1969 when the Troubles started in Northern Ireland is superb.
A must hear.
I endorse this message. It is called "Breakdown". Both fascinating and disturbing how a society can so rapidly spiral out of anyone's control.
I remember watching on TV with my father. It was my political awakening. He was in despair. He remembered the Irish Civil War when he was a child. There was an infamous IRA attack on the police barracks in the town where his family lived.
And here we are 50 years later: a journalist is killed during riots and despite all the shock her killer has still not been caught and, much like then, the rest of the country does not much care about NI until it will force itself onto the PM’s agenda.
I was a child at the time, but I remember the riots, bombs and shootings in the early Seventies, and again after the hunger strikes. I hope those days remain history.
Quite. He may be a “temporary PM” whilst an election is called, but once the ballots are cast and the results are known, then in a massive hung Parliament scenario he is “temporary” no more.
Early in the Spanish Civil War, the Nationalist Generals were meeting to elect a Generalissimo to head the junta. Franco's former commanding officer who knew him best opposed his election and said that 'if you give him Spain, he will believe it is his and will never allow anyone to replace him'.
Once Corbyn and Momentum are in power, they will not relinquish it lightly.
This is scaremongering nonsense. In a hung parliament, Corbyn (or anyone else) can easily be VONC'd.
Not so easily, as we are seeing.
We aren't really seeing anything. There is no VONC because the Commons is not sitting.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
Aren’t the Lib Dems well placed to take seats off the Tories? Not much chance of that if they’re seen as putting Corbyn into No 10.
Are they anti Brexit or not? If they are, it shouldn't matter whether they win or lose seats over it. Or are they anti-Brexit in certain circumstances only? The ERG were willing to see the Tories fall to 9% to get their way. And they seem to be winning the war.
Even if Jo had simply agreed to vote for Corbyn, it still wouldn’t have carried at present so she’s then alienating a ton of the electorate for nothing in the eventual subsequent GE.
Without triggering the boring constitutional minutiae brigade too much, can’t we just Vonc the odious incompetent clown Johnson and see what happens? There are several candidates for caretaker PM who could feasibly command a Gnu. Harman is one, Clarke another, Hammond and Starmer might also carry the house.
It is hard to see a GNU. There might be a different Conservative prime minister, though that would be hard as the party has only just elected Boris but it is possible, or a Labour minority government pledged to ask for an extension and call an election and nothing else. The GNU problem is, how do you carve up the various ministries between parties?
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
Aren’t the Lib Dems well placed to take seats off the Tories? Not much chance of that if they’re seen as putting Corbyn into No 10.
Are they anti Brexit or not? If they are, it shouldn't matter whether they win or lose seats over it. Or are they anti-Brexit in certain circumstances only? The ERG were willing to see the Tories fall to 9% to get their way. And they seem to be winning the war.
Even if Jo had simply agreed to vote for Corbyn, it still wouldn’t have carried at present so she’s then alienating a ton of the electorate for nothing in the eventual subsequent GE.
Which makes my point. You have to be prepared to alienate people. The ERG alienated plenty when No Deal was a twinkle in their eye. Besides, no one is saying that is what she had to do. She could simply have said Corbyn as PM is not our preferred option right now.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
Aren’t the Lib Dems well placed to take seats off the Tories? Not much chance of that if they’re seen as putting Corbyn into No 10.
Are they anti Brexit or not? If they are, it shouldn't matter whether they win or lose seats over it. Or are they anti-Brexit in certain circumstances only? The ERG were willing to see the Tories fall to 9% to get their way. And they seem to be winning the war.
Even if Jo had simply agreed to vote for Corbyn, it still wouldn’t have carried at present so she’s then alienating a ton of the electorate for nothing in the eventual subsequent GE.
Which makes my point. You have to be prepared to alienate people. The ERG alienated plenty when No Deal was a twinkle in their eye. Besides, no one is saying that is what she had to do. She could simply have said Corbyn as PM is not our preferred option right now.
That’s pretty much what she has said in her subsequent statement.
The point was that Corbyn won’t be able to command a majority so what’s the point in even discussing it.
Off topic, the series on Radio 4 about August 1969 when the Troubles started in Northern Ireland is superb.
A must hear.
I endorse this message. It is called "Breakdown". Both fascinating and disturbing how a society can so rapidly spiral out of anyone's control.
I remember watching on TV with my father. It was my political awakening. He was in despair. He remembered the Irish Civil War when he was a child. There was an infamous IRA attack on the police barracks in the town where his family lived.
And here we are 50 years later: a journalist is killed during riots and despite all the shock her killer has still not been caught and, much like then, the rest of the country does not much care about NI until it will force itself onto the PM’s agenda.
I was a child at the time, but I remember the riots, bombs and shootings in the early Seventies, and again after the hunger strikes. I hope those days remain history.
My present position is that, although I hate the thought of No Deal and the damage it will do, we may have to do it in order to finally prove that the country is poorer and worse off out of the EU than in it.
And all this horsesh*t about "taking back control", "blue passports" and "sovereignty" will turn out be nothing more than cover for English Nationalists and xenophobes.
And no Leavers will have the spine to say "Oh cr*p! We were wrong"
I've never been convinced this argument is as persuasive to the unconverted as those who make it think it is - and the frequent conclusion that those people who disagree with it must just be slow of learning is wrong.
"In some counterfactual scenario we would be richer" is simply insufficient to persuade most people that this counterfactual is preferable. It also needs to chime with other preferences. For example, although there are some environmental regulations that make us better off (for example, by addressing negative externalities of pollution) there are others that, on net, make us poorer and less competitive. But that doesn't mean popular support to dump that legislation, because we generally prefer being greener to being somewhat richer.
If we're playing the game of "counterfactually, what political union could we join that makes us better off" then there's a country out there that conveniently speaks the same language as us and has 50% higher GDP per capita. If we became the 51st state and integrated fully with their economy, then we'd converge towards that figure. Not necessarily hit it, but compared to the worst-case scenarios banded about for Brexit, you wouldn't have to go very far in that direction to make the in/out of Europe debate look frankly trivial. If your priority really is becoming more rich/less poor, and you are prepared to commit the UK to a political union to do so, then the logical answer is Atlanticist.
Now there are strong objections to that. We don't like their constitution or gun rights or capital punishment or military exploits or politicians or accents or basically, that's just not who we are, yet if these objections are essentially restatements of identity, do they "count"? The deepest-held and most derision-heaped objections to EU membership stem from a similar, visceral place.
Every day that we are not a state of the USA, makes your grandchildren poorer. Far poorer than a day spent outside the EU.
Without triggering the boring constitutional minutiae brigade too much, can’t we just Vonc the odious incompetent clown Johnson and see what happens? There are several candidates for caretaker PM who could feasibly command a Gnu. Harman is one, Clarke another, Hammond and Starmer might also carry the house.
If no alternative is found, Johnson gets to pick the date of the next election.
This is pretty good for Sanders, who'd been around 12-13% in the last couple of polls, but it's terrible for Biden who's now 11 points adrift of Warren.
And Harris would likely get no delegates on this poll. She'd be dead and buried.
On the basis of this, I could see Buttigieg ending up the standard-bearer for the not-liberals.
This is pretty good for Sanders, who'd been around 12-13% in the last couple of polls, but it's terrible for Biden who's now 11 points adrift of Warren.
And Harris would likely get no delegates on this poll. She'd be dead and buried.
There seems to be an awful lot of churn between polls for no apparent reason, though at this distance it is easy to miss activity on the ground. The September debate is a month away but there are just two weeks left for candidates to qualify by the end of August. Until then these polls are interesting but perhaps not useful, especially as the caucus-goers might be atypical.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
Aren’t the Lib Dems well placed to take seats off the Tories? Not much chance of that if they’re seen as putting Corbyn into No 10.
Are they anti Brexit or not? If they are, it shouldn't matter whether they win or lose seats over it. Or are they anti-Brexit in certain circumstances only? The ERG were willing to see the Tories fall to 9% to get their way. And they seem to be winning the war.
Even if Jo had simply agreed to vote for Corbyn, it still wouldn’t have carried at present so she’s then alienating a ton of the electorate for nothing in the eventual subsequent GE.
Which makes my point. You have to be prepared to alienate people. The ERG alienated plenty when No Deal was a twinkle in their eye. Besides, no one is saying that is what she had to do. She could simply have said Corbyn as PM is not our preferred option right now.
That’s pretty much what she has said in her subsequent statement.
The point was that Corbyn won’t be able to command a majority so what’s the point in even discussing it.
Without triggering the boring constitutional minutiae brigade too much, can’t we just Vonc the odious incompetent clown Johnson and see what happens? There are several candidates for caretaker PM who could feasibly command a Gnu. Harman is one, Clarke another, Hammond and Starmer might also carry the house.
That's probably not attractive from the PoV of Tory rebels, who have to go kamikaze to make the VONC pass.
They'd be more inclined to jump if there was a working gameplan for what happened next, and they may be able to use their VONC votes as leverage to get Corbyn to let someone else through as caretaker. They'd actually be better off passing a VONC+Confidence-In-X motion before the actual formal confidence motion, if such a thing is procedurally possible.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
The reaction amongst the avowedly anti-Brexit groups (diehard Remainers?), has been almost universally negative. Only the committed LDs seem to mounting any kind of defence. It seems simply mad to be ruling options out. The LDs have not had to play party political games thus far, and been able to portray themselves as the pure anti-Brexiteers. No longer it seems.
Today also shows how Caroline Lucas and the SNP are prepared to take cheap shots at Swinson to try and play up their remain credentials to their respective electorates. So much for a remain alliance.
This is Mike's site to do what he likes with, but three successive leaders pushing the same line is starting to feel a bit monotonous.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
The reaction amongst the avowedly anti-Brexit groups (diehard Remainers?), has been almost universally negative. Only the committed LDs seem to mounting any kind of defence. It seems simply mad to be ruling options out. The LDs have not had to play party political games thus far, and been able to portray themselves as the pure anti-Brexiteers. No longer it seems.
Today also shows how Caroline Lucas and the SNP are prepared to take cheap shots at Swinson to try and play up their remain credentials to their respective electorates. So much for a remain alliance.
One person's cheap shot is another's pointing out an obvious error.
Outstanding idea! Yes I know Trump is a twat, but run with me for a moment. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, It was floated that the US could buy Siberia, giving the Russian Federation some much-needed foreign currency and securing US interests for decades to come if not centuries. But penny-pinching nixed that. If Trump pulls off buying Greenland it would be a historic win.
Off topic, the series on Radio 4 about August 1969 when the Troubles started in Northern Ireland is superb.
A must hear.
I endorse this message. It is called "Breakdown". Both fascinating and disturbing how a society can so rapidly spiral out of anyone's control.
I remember watching on TV with my father. It was my political awakening. He was in despair. He remembered the Irish Civil War when he was a child. There was an infamous IRA attack on the police barracks in the town where his family lived.
And here we are 50 years later: a journalist is killed during riots and despite all the shock her killer has still not been caught and, much like then, the rest of the country does not much care about NI until it will force itself onto the PM’s agenda.
I was a child at the time, but I remember the riots, bombs and shootings in the early Seventies, and again after the hunger strikes. I hope those days remain history.
I lived there when it was happening. It was my everyday "normal".
It is why I believe that division is harmful. I see Brexit as nothing more than "Us and Them". When I was a kid, that killed people.
This is pretty good for Sanders, who'd been around 12-13% in the last couple of polls, but it's terrible for Biden who's now 11 points adrift of Warren.
And Harris would likely get no delegates on this poll. She'd be dead and buried.
On the basis of this, I could see Buttigieg ending up the standard-bearer for the not-liberals.
Any of the lacklustre defeated Democrat candidates of the last 35 years could win this election (Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale). Yet they have literally no one even of that calibre.
My present position is that, although I hate the thought of No Deal and the damage it will do, we may have to do it in order to finally prove that the country is poorer and worse off out of the EU than in it.
And all this horsesh*t about "taking back control", "blue passports" and "sovereignty" will turn out be nothing more than cover for English Nationalists and xenophobes.
And no Leavers will have the spine to say "Oh cr*p! We were wrong"
I've never been convinced this argument is as persuasive to the unconverted as those who make it think it is - and the frequent conclusion that those people who disagree with it must just be slow of learning is wrong.
"In some counterfactual scenario we would be richer" is simply insufficient to persuade most people that this counterfactual is preferable. It also needs to chime with other preferences. For example, although there are some environmental regulations that make us better off (for example, by addressing negative externalities of pollution) there are others that, on net, make us poorer and less competitive. But that doesn't mean popular support to dump that legislation, because we generally prefer being greener to being somewhat richer.
If we're playing the game of "counterfactually, what political union could we join that makes us better off" then there's a country out there that conveniently speaks the same language as us and has 50% higher GDP per capita. If we became the 51st state and integrated fully with their economy, then we'd converge towards that figure. Not necessarily hit it, but compared to the worst-case scenarios banded about for Brexit, you wouldn't have to go very far in that direction to make the in/out of Europe debate look frankly trivial. If your priority really is becoming more rich/less poor, and you are prepared to commit the UK to a political union to do so, then the logical answer is Atlanticist.
Now there are strong objections to that. We don't like their constitution or gun rights or capital punishment or military exploits or politicians or accents or basically, that's just not who we are, yet if these objections are essentially restatements of identity, do they "count"? The deepest-held and most derision-heaped objections to EU membership stem from a similar, visceral place.
Every day that we are not a state of the USA, makes your grandchildren poorer. Far poorer than a day spent outside the EU.
Were we to do so, it is likely that our voting power inside USA would see their worst excesses curbed. The path to a Republican win in the House would be near insurmountable. All but the mildest Centrist President too. Gun laws are set at State level and lower, though rendered largely ineffectual by neighbouring States, so we wouldn't get that. Death penalty too. Wisconsin has never executed anybody.
I know a few Leave voters who have changed their minds.
But, yes, you’re right about leaders of the Leave campaign.
In the event of a No Deal Brexit, there would be two groups of Leavers who would change their minds very quickly.
1) Livestock farmers - when they find that WTO tariffs destroy their business
2) Fishermen - who will find out that when OUR govt sold the fishing rights, the EU had nothing to do with it. Those rights will stay sold and our fishermen will lose their EU markets.
And then there are our other businesses which are mostly unprepared for No Deal because they were assured it was a million to one event.
This is pretty good for Sanders, who'd been around 12-13% in the last couple of polls, but it's terrible for Biden who's now 11 points adrift of Warren.
And Harris would likely get no delegates on this poll. She'd be dead and buried.
On the basis of this, I could see Buttigieg ending up the standard-bearer for the not-liberals.
Any of the lacklustre defeated Democrat candidates of the last 35 years could win this election (Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale). Yet they have literally no one even of that calibre.
Really?
Kerry and Gore were snorefests. They were the Bidens of their time.
And I don't remember Kerry being any more impressive in Obama's cabinet than Warren. In fact, while I'm no Warren fan, she has a pretty impressive record.
Plus, Buttigieg has something. He's scary smart, scary ariculate. Plus, he manages to be a religious veteran, who's also gay. I think he's worth a flutter here.
I know a few Leave voters who have changed their minds.
But, yes, you’re right about leaders of the Leave campaign.
In the event of a No Deal Brexit, there would be two groups of Leavers who would change their minds very quickly.
1) Livestock farmers - when they find that WTO tariffs destroy their business
2) Fishermen - who will find out that when OUR govt sold the fishing rights, the EU had nothing to do with it. Those rights will stay sold and our fishermen will lose their EU markets.
And then there are our other businesses which are mostly unprepared for No Deal because they were assured it was a million to one event.
Interesting times ahead.
on your point 1) there is no such thing as WTO tariffs. Each country or customs block lodges there tariff schedules at the WTO. So can you explain what you mean here?
I know a few Leave voters who have changed their minds.
But, yes, you’re right about leaders of the Leave campaign.
In the event of a No Deal Brexit, there would be two groups of Leavers who would change their minds very quickly.
1) Livestock farmers - when they find that WTO tariffs destroy their business
2) Fishermen - who will find out that when OUR govt sold the fishing rights, the EU had nothing to do with it. Those rights will stay sold and our fishermen will lose their EU markets.
And then there are our other businesses which are mostly unprepared for No Deal because they were assured it was a million to one event.
Interesting times ahead.
on your point 1) there is no such thing as WTO tariffs. Each country or customs block lodges there tariff schedules at the WTO. So can you explain what you mean here?
2) what do you mean by sold the fishing rights?
2) was indeed confusing. How are the rights sold if there is no deal?
I know a few Leave voters who have changed their minds.
But, yes, you’re right about leaders of the Leave campaign.
In the event of a No Deal Brexit, there would be two groups of Leavers who would change their minds very quickly.
1) Livestock farmers - when they find that WTO tariffs destroy their business
2) Fishermen - who will find out that when OUR govt sold the fishing rights, the EU had nothing to do with it. Those rights will stay sold and our fishermen will lose their EU markets.
And then there are our other businesses which are mostly unprepared for No Deal because they were assured it was a million to one event.
Interesting times ahead.
on your point 1) there is no such thing as WTO tariffs. Each country or customs block lodges there tariff schedules at the WTO. So can you explain what you mean here?
2) what do you mean by sold the fishing rights?
She is right on 1). She means the WTO tariffs other countries place on our exports.
She is wrong on 2). The UK is capable of returning fiahing rights from the EU.
This is pretty good for Sanders, who'd been around 12-13% in the last couple of polls, but it's terrible for Biden who's now 11 points adrift of Warren.
And Harris would likely get no delegates on this poll. She'd be dead and buried.
On the basis of this, I could see Buttigieg ending up the standard-bearer for the not-liberals.
Any of the lacklustre defeated Democrat candidates of the last 35 years could win this election (Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale). Yet they have literally no one even of that calibre.
No they wouldn't, Trump would beat all of those bores just as he beat Hillary.
Bill Clinton might have beaten Trump, as might Obama but like him or loathe him Trump is probably the most charismatic candidate the GOP have had since Reagan and the Democrats will need someone special to beat him
I know a few Leave voters who have changed their minds.
But, yes, you’re right about leaders of the Leave campaign.
In the event of a No Deal Brexit, there would be two groups of Leavers who would change their minds very quickly.
1) Livestock farmers - when they find that WTO tariffs destroy their business
2) Fishermen - who will find out that when OUR govt sold the fishing rights, the EU had nothing to do with it. Those rights will stay sold and our fishermen will lose their EU markets.
And then there are our other businesses which are mostly unprepared for No Deal because they were assured it was a million to one event.
Interesting times ahead.
on your point 1) there is no such thing as WTO tariffs. Each country or customs block lodges there tariff schedules at the WTO. So can you explain what you mean here?
2) what do you mean by sold the fishing rights?
She is right on 1). She means the WTO tariffs other countries place on our exports.
She is wrong on 2). The UK is capable of returning fiahing rights from the EU.
We import 40% of food into the UK. If we put a serious tariffs on imports, apart from food price inflation, good for local farmers cash flow and P&L, why would they go bust. They would have a captive market for their produce.
It all depends on what the Govt do and the Boris Govt has not said what they would do at this point in time.
Comments
Day 1 VoNC in Johnson tabled by Corbyn
Day 2 VOC for Corbyn as PM fails.
Day 3 VOC for "Someone Else" fails by 50 votes (25 MPs) because Not enough Tory and Labour MPs have the spine to vote against their party.
Days 4 to 10 total panic from the 400 MPs who all really hate the idea of no deal brexit.
Day 11 VOC for "Someone Else" is finaly passed with 380 in favour.
Day 12 Brexit delayed, ... once more.
His whole career.
FTPA requires VOC to be “in Her Majesty’s Govt”. Can’t put the cart before the Horse.
A must hear.
... and it was still hot."
The link is here:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1161880331735240704?s=19
The VoNC is in "Her Majesty's Government" any VOC would state who is to be the new PM ie Government.
However, to respond: it seems to me that Swinson has made an error even in purely LibDem terms - she's alienating potential tactical voters for no obvious benefit. If a VONC passes, it's clear that an attempt will be made to see if Corbyn can get a majority. If she thinks it unlikely, she doesn't have to torpedo it - the line to take is "I don't think this will work so we need a plan B". If it doesn't work, she can say I told you so, now for my plan.
As things stand, if it doesn't work she'll get the blame for it, and if subsequently No Deal happens she'll get some of the blame for that too.
My present position is that, although I hate the thought of No Deal and the damage it will do, we may have to do it in order to finally prove that the country is poorer and worse off out of the EU than in it.
And all this horsesh*t about "taking back control", "blue passports" and "sovereignty" will turn out be nothing more than cover for English Nationalists and xenophobes.
And no Leavers will have the spine to say "Oh cr*p! We were wrong"
And here we are 50 years later: a journalist is killed during riots and despite all the shock her killer has still not been caught and, much like then, the rest of the country does not much care about NI until it will force itself onto the PM’s agenda.
They could just draw straws to try and find a PM. Or take it in turns on a ten day rotating basis. Why not?
Terrorists, and terrorism don't emerge from a vacuum.
Once Corbyn and Momentum are in power, they will not relinquish it lightly.
Early in 1967 [Paul] Rose became PPS to Barbara Castle, Minister of Transport. When he returned from a visit to the Six Counties, she asked why he was concerned about Northern Ireland rather than Vietnam or Rhodesia. Rose recalled: “I just looked at her with incomprehension and said: 'You’ll see when they start shooting one another.’” Two years later, she diaried her “astonishment to learn ... that British troops have moved into Derry.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/12158044/Paul-Rose-Labour-MP-obituary.html
But, yes, you’re right about leaders of the Leave campaign.
Latest from Iowa
And there's a new Change Research poll out in Iowa.There's bad news from Biden, and there's terrible news for Harris. This is pretty good for Sanders, who'd been around 12-13% in the last couple of polls, but it's terrible for Biden who's now 11 points adrift of Warren.
And Harris would likely get no delegates on this poll. She'd be dead and buried.
Having said that, even in narrow terms the pundits don't seem to have quite got the hang of the mechanics of installing an alternative government. For one thing, everyone seems to have forgotten than MPs can abstain in a VONC, and several of them probably would; that needs to be factored into any estimates of numbers. For another thing, it's a VONC (and then a VOC) in a government, not a PM. Not only would MPs have to agree on a PM, they'd also have to agree on the other main roles - what parties are they going to come from?
Executive summary: it ain't gonna happen.
It seems simply mad to be ruling options out. The LDs have not had to play party political games thus far, and been able to portray themselves as the pure anti-Brexiteers. No longer it seems.
The ERG were willing to see the Tories fall to 9% to get their way. And they seem to be winning the war.
The point was that Corbyn won’t be able to command a majority so what’s the point in even discussing it.
"In some counterfactual scenario we would be richer" is simply insufficient to persuade most people that this counterfactual is preferable. It also needs to chime with other preferences. For example, although there are some environmental regulations that make us better off (for example, by addressing negative externalities of pollution) there are others that, on net, make us poorer and less competitive. But that doesn't mean popular support to dump that legislation, because we generally prefer being greener to being somewhat richer.
If we're playing the game of "counterfactually, what political union could we join that makes us better off" then there's a country out there that conveniently speaks the same language as us and has 50% higher GDP per capita. If we became the 51st state and integrated fully with their economy, then we'd converge towards that figure. Not necessarily hit it, but compared to the worst-case scenarios banded about for Brexit, you wouldn't have to go very far in that direction to make the in/out of Europe debate look frankly trivial. If your priority really is becoming more rich/less poor, and you are prepared to commit the UK to a political union to do so, then the logical answer is Atlanticist.
Now there are strong objections to that. We don't like their constitution or gun rights or capital punishment or military exploits or politicians or accents or basically, that's just not who we are, yet if these objections are essentially restatements of identity, do they "count"? The deepest-held and most derision-heaped objections to EU membership stem from a similar, visceral place.
Every day that we are not a state of the USA, makes your grandchildren poorer. Far poorer than a day spent outside the EU.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1162122813056139266?s=21
They'd be more inclined to jump if there was a working gameplan for what happened next, and they may be able to use their VONC votes as leverage to get Corbyn to let someone else through as caretaker. They'd actually be better off passing a VONC+Confidence-In-X motion before the actual formal confidence motion, if such a thing is procedurally possible.
Things are looking up. Perhaps after Brexit, Trump will want to buy the UK. Or England.
It's getting crazier and crazier... The "death rattle" of REMAIN?
It is why I believe that division is harmful. I see Brexit as nothing more than "Us and Them". When I was a kid, that killed people.
The USA is great if you are white and have money. For everyone else it is long hours, little job security and poor healthcare.
It might be your dream for the kids, but I want better for mine. We have it already and we are throwing it away.
1) Livestock farmers - when they find that WTO tariffs destroy their business
2) Fishermen - who will find out that when OUR govt sold the fishing rights, the EU had nothing to do with it. Those rights will stay sold and our fishermen will lose their EU markets.
And then there are our other businesses which are mostly unprepared for No Deal because they were assured it was a million to one event.
Interesting times ahead.
Kerry and Gore were snorefests. They were the Bidens of their time.
And I don't remember Kerry being any more impressive in Obama's cabinet than Warren. In fact, while I'm no Warren fan, she has a pretty impressive record.
Plus, Buttigieg has something. He's scary smart, scary ariculate. Plus, he manages to be a religious veteran, who's also gay. I think he's worth a flutter here.
2) what do you mean by sold the fishing rights?
She is wrong on 2). The UK is capable of returning fiahing rights from the EU.
Bill Clinton might have beaten Trump, as might Obama but like him or loathe him Trump is probably the most charismatic candidate the GOP have had since Reagan and the Democrats will need someone special to beat him
It all depends on what the Govt do and the Boris Govt has not said what they would do at this point in time.