I suspect the US electorate has changed substantially in the last three decades. It is hard to see a Democrat winning without enthusiastic support from minority voters. That is not going to happen if the candidate is silent about explicitly racist remarks from the president.
This is actually worse for Trump than it sounds, because China's tariffs are specifically targeted at swing voters.
If he seems to be hurting enough I wonder if they'll even do a deal; It's not like Trump is known for respecting agreements, isn't it better to just keep the pressure on until November and make sure he's replaced with someone more stable?
The Democrats should also heed a lesson from history, and especially from Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign. You don’t win elections by playing to your base and calling your would-be swing voters stupid or racist. You win elections by winning the argument on the economy, jobs, and health-care.
I do agree that they should mainly be running on healthcare etc, and obviously they shouldn't call his *voters* racist, but I wonder if there's even a decent precedent to follow here.
A majority of voters think the president is racist. I don't think anything like that was true of any previous president, and although the Dems shouldn't let that completely crowd out an economic message it would be weird not to tap the ball into an open goal like that.
This is actually worse for Trump than it sounds, because China's tariffs are specifically targeted at swing voters.
If he seems to be hurting enough I wonder if they'll even do a deal; It's not like Trump is known for respecting agreements, isn't it better to just keep the pressure on until November and make sure he's replaced with someone more stable?
Which is why Iowa is such a disaster zone for Trump this time around.
(Click "listen" below the title; ignore "listen for free" at the top.)
Thanks for this link John. And thanks too Richard.
I mentioned this phenomenon the other day and it should really be the number one thing keeping up all political incumbents that want to stay in their jobs. This indicator has been so reliable in recent decades that in all likelihood it could now serve as a self-fulfilling indicator - no portfolio manager is likely to get fired for going risk-off right now.
Trump is stuck with the prescribed election cycle and there's arguably very little policy room left between now and Nov 2020 but to berate the Fed a bit more and keep his fingers crossed. Johnson on the other hand might just get away with it, if he can get Brexit over the line and then go to the country shortly thereafter.
The argument being that we're on the verge of a once per century period of technological disruption that will herald a "deflationary boom". Ergo, the Cassandras are simply not looking far enough back in history when they say yield curve inversion is always bad news. This firm of course predicts the boom will be driven by the sectors it is most heavily invested in, being AI, energy storage, DNA sequencing, robotics and blockchain.
But one should recall that even the supposed golden period during the 19th century Railroad Boom, there were several punishing stock crashes. One might also argue this view misses the demographic drivers that might be as important to yield curve behaviour as anything else:
PT: Swinson is absolutely right to rule out Corbyn as PM. All polling shows that this is a man not just unacceptable to Parliament but unacceptable to the country. This is the point Swinson should be making more forcefully. Installing him as PM as a means of avoiding Brexit is therefore madness, even more so if done on the basis of calling an immediate election.
Suppose he becomes PM. Polling shifts almost immediately and shows significant shift to Tories as Conservative remainers/anti no dealers desert the Libdems (and remember Johnson is officially “committed to a deal”). It is clear that the Tories will run riot in the planned election.
Corbyn reneges-on pledge to call an election (and possibly there isn’t 2/3 support for it in the Commons). Challenges Parliament to chuck him out knowing only alternative is election and Brexit. (All this assumes EU has actually given him an extension).
What do they do? Once again all remainers have managed to do is delay the increasingly inevitable. And given us Corbyn as PM to boot.
These numbers are interesting, firstly that Yang is so low despite being basically a human version of Twitter, and secondly, who knew Cory Booker was such a powerhouse?
This is actually worse for Trump than it sounds, because China's tariffs are specifically targeted at swing voters.
If he seems to be hurting enough I wonder if they'll even do a deal; It's not like Trump is known for respecting agreements, isn't it better to just keep the pressure on until November and make sure he's replaced with someone more stable?
There was a very good article in the Economist - EU retaliatory tariffs were targeted to do as little damage as possible to European interests. Chinese retaliatory tariffs on the other hand were targeted to do as much damage to Trump voters as possible - irrespective of the impact on China. The moral of the story “Don’t start trade wars, least of all with authoritarian dictatorships!”
These numbers are interesting, firstly that Yang is so low despite being basically a human version of Twitter, and secondly, who knew Cory Booker was such a powerhouse?
Like an overgrown child who’s never taken responsibility for his innumerable failures when it comes to casinos, steaks, airlines, magazines, marriages, child-rearing, and the website GoTrump.com, Donald Trump was never going to acknowledge his role in harming the U.S. economy via a self-defeating trade war. Instead, he’s selected Fed chairman Jerome Powell as his fall guy, claiming the central banker’s failure to cut rates (until last month) has hampered the economic growth he was hoping to ride to a second term. “Our problem is with the Fed,“ he ranted Wednesday after the bond market flashed a warning that a recession may be on the horizon.
These numbers are interesting, firstly that Yang is so low despite being basically a human version of Twitter, and secondly, who knew Cory Booker was such a powerhouse?
Booker came in came in to the election with a big Twitter following. He hasn’t added all that many followers. And if you look at the movement in the polling (Warren’s improvement at the expense of Sanders, for example), the Twitter numbers are pretty well uncorrelated with movement in likely votes.
These numbers are interesting, firstly that Yang is so low despite being basically a human version of Twitter, and secondly, who knew Cory Booker was such a powerhouse?
You can still lay Andrew Yang in the low 20s for the Democratic nomination. There seems to be one each nomination round where the price defies reason.
He is at an unbelievable 8% chance for the presidency in the Predictit markets, granted their fee structure makes it impossible to take advantage but still !
I do think Trump's up against it, whatever happens. His margin of victory last time was wafer thin and assisted substantially by Clinton's idiotic/complacent decision-making on resource allocation.
Not as up as many here on US politics but I find it hard to believe that Trump's maintained let alone increased his electoral appeal with the middle ground of floating voters during the last four years or so.
It's the Democrats to lose.
[Although, that was true of May. And the Remain campaign. And Clinton. So...]
This is the official response from yesterday, I think it has just enough reverse ferreting: It doesn't quite go so far to say that she'd support Corbyn if he could find enough Tories, but it doesn't say she wouldn't, and it sets that up as the main obstacle.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
This is the official response from yesterday, I think it has just enough reverse ferreting: It doesn't quite go so far to say that she'd support Corbyn if he could find enough Tories, but it doesn't say she wouldn't, and it sets that up as the main obstacle.
And it is an obstacle. Let's not forget that at this moment Labour has 11 fewer MPs than they had under Gordon Brown, and the Liberal Democrats and SNP 14 fewer than they held in 2010. Not only is the opposition weaker, it is also much more fragmented. And in 2010 Gordon Brown was PM, and still considered a major figure. Corbyn - isn't.
If Ed Miliband were still Leader of the Opposition then something might be done. But unfortunately the fact that the current Labour leader is very little different from the Prime Minister, has no experience, very little intelligence, zero integrity and is both ambiguous and slippery on the issue he is using to try and take power is more than a bit of a drawback.
The fact that some of the nuttier Corbynistas do not see this and throw around unpleasant personal abuse at those who point it out is depressing but hardly surprising.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
This is the official response from yesterday, I think it has just enough reverse ferreting: It doesn't quite go so far to say that she'd support Corbyn if he could find enough Tories, but it doesn't say she wouldn't, and it sets that up as the main obstacle.
And it is an obstacle. Let's not forget that at this moment Labour has 11 fewer MPs than they had under Gordon Brown, and the Liberal Democrats and SNP 14 fewer than they held in 2010. Not only is the opposition weaker, it is also much more fragmented. And in 2010 Gordon Brown was PM, and still considered a major figure. Corbyn - isn't.
If Ed Miliband were still Leader of the Opposition then something might be done. But unfortunately the fact that the current Labour leader is very little different from the Prime Minister, has no experience, very little intelligence, zero integrity and is both ambiguous and slippery on the issue he is using to try and take power is more than a bit of a drawback.
The fact that some of the nuttier Corbynistas do not see this and throw around unpleasant personal abuse at those who point it out is depressing but hardly surprising.
Also, Corbynistas need to understand that throwing abuse at other parties is not likely to earn their support.
Corbyn is a non-starter, but it is good to see the discussions over who should depose Bozo dominate the news cycle.
And it is an obstacle. Let's not forget that at this moment Labour has 11 fewer MPs than they had under Gordon Brown, and the Liberal Democrats and SNP 14 fewer than they held in 2010. Not only is the opposition weaker, it is also much more fragmented. And in 2010 Gordon Brown was PM, and still considered a major figure. Corbyn - isn't.
If Ed Miliband were still Leader of the Opposition then something might be done. But unfortunately the fact that the current Labour leader is very little different from the Prime Minister, has no experience, very little intelligence, zero integrity and is both ambiguous and slippery on the issue he is using to try and take power is more than a bit of a drawback.
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Swinson: "there is no point in pursuing an alternative "caretaker" Government under Corbyn, a man who will not be supported by Parliament, is unacceptable to the British people (highly relevant if to be immediately be followed by a General Election), and cannot be trusted to limit his adoption of such a position to avoiding Brexit".
"Crypto Tory who isn't serious about averting Brexit"
Corbyn: "Any alternative caretaker Government must be led by me"
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Network Rail 16/1 Ordnance Survey 16/1 NATS Holdings* 20/1 BBC 25/1 Post Office 25/1 The Royal Parks 55/1 NHS 125/1
(PP)
Who on earth would want to buy the Post Office? It is a defunct business model: they are closing down around the planet.
Unclear how they would judge the NHS bet, as there are three separate organisations. If NHS Wales was sold, but the Scottish and English ones were not, would the bookie honour the bet?
This is the official response from yesterday, I think it has just enough reverse ferreting: It doesn't quite go so far to say that she'd support Corbyn if he could find enough Tories, but it doesn't say she wouldn't, and it sets that up as the main obstacle.
Feels like progress is being made. Im utterly relaxed about Harman or whoever really leading a short term extend a50 + new GE govt. But the idea of a ref pre GE is a non starter.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
If the inverted yield stood on its own then I think a decent case could be made for saying it was not a reliable indicator of a recession this time around. One of the key drivers of the difference in yield is inflation expectations. If there is a risk that your capital may deflate by 5-10% a year during the period of loan that has to be bought off with a higher interest rate because it would affect the value of the asset. Conversely, if the market is confident that the very low inflation/near deflation of the last decade is going to continue then there is no need for such a premium. The argument that you are "tying your money up for longer" doesn't really work when the market for government bonds is so liquid. You can check out any time you want.
Unfortunately the yield curve does not stand alone. The silly trade wars, the long term sustainability of excess consumption and excess private debt, the time since the last recession, the instability of China, there are so many indicators that a recession is likely within the next 18 months. Germany is likely to be in recession when the Q3 figures come out although this is so shallow that it would barely be noticeable. The worry is that this becomes entrenched. If it does politicians in office everywhere will struggle.
Network Rail 16/1 Ordnance Survey 16/1 NATS Holdings* 20/1 BBC 25/1 Post Office 25/1 The Royal Parks 55/1 NHS 125/1
(PP)
Who on earth would want to buy the Post Office? It is a defunct business model: they are closing down around the planet.
Unclear how they would judge the NHS bet, as there are three separate organisations. If NHS Wales was sold, but the Scottish and English ones were not, would the bookie honour the bet?
(*air traffic control)
They would most probably say whales don't need free healthcare and refuse to pay up.
Guardian headline claims (essentially) "LibDems isolated as even Tories show willingness to support Corbyn as PM".
As far as I can make out there are no Tories who have shown willingness to support such a plan? They have shown willingness to pursue the plan of an alternative Government, but none have said they will support Corbyn.
And if Corbyn's idea is genuinely to lead a one issue Caretaker Government his precondition that he must lead it is ridiculous.
Mr. Alex, I believe a credulous person called Guto Bebb [apologies if I misremembered the name] is a Conservative MP who supported the idea of Corbyn as a temporary PM, before apparently recanting his lunacy.
Network Rail 16/1 Ordnance Survey 16/1 NATS Holdings* 20/1 BBC 25/1 Post Office 25/1 The Royal Parks 55/1 NHS 125/1
(PP)
Who on earth would want to buy the Post Office? It is a defunct business model: they are closing down around the planet.
Unclear how they would judge the NHS bet, as there are three separate organisations. If NHS Wales was sold, but the Scottish and English ones were not, would the bookie honour the bet?
(*air traffic control)
Backing all of them might be a decent bet. Unless inflation really took off, you would have a long time for one of them to come in at a profit (after inflation)
Like an overgrown child who’s never taken responsibility for his innumerable failures when it comes to casinos, steaks, airlines, magazines, marriages, child-rearing, and the website GoTrump.com, Donald Trump was never going to acknowledge his role in harming the U.S. economy via a self-defeating trade war. Instead, he’s selected Fed chairman Jerome Powell as his fall guy, claiming the central banker’s failure to cut rates (until last month) has hampered the economic growth he was hoping to ride to a second term. “Our problem is with the Fed,“ he ranted Wednesday after the bond market flashed a warning that a recession may be on the horizon.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
Recruitment numbers seem to be pretty good. The problem is retention.
And, who would want to be a soldier, when your political masters are quite prepared to throw you under the bus to placate the people you fought against?
Guardian headline claims (essentially) "LibDems isolated as even Tories show willingness to support Corbyn as PM".
As far as I can make out there are no Tories who have shown willingness to support such a plan? They have shown willingness to pursue the plan of an alternative Government, but none have said they will support Corbyn.
And if Corbyn's idea is genuinely to lead a one issue Caretaker Government his precondition that he must lead it is ridiculous.
I think it’s the second act in a concerted labour attempt to undermine Swinson, Corbyn knows he has no chance of getting a majority to support him and thinks he can yet again play both leave and remain labour voters. Swinson is right to point the facts out to him and equally right to offer to talk to him to determine whether he is serious about stopping no deal or just playing games. I suspect the latter and thinks this oh so clever move of his will mean he gets no blame for a no deal crash out.
Guardian headline claims (essentially) "LibDems isolated as even Tories show willingness to support Corbyn as PM".
As far as I can make out there are no Tories who have shown willingness to support such a plan? They have shown willingness to pursue the plan of an alternative Government, but none have said they will support Corbyn.
And if Corbyn's idea is genuinely to lead a one issue Caretaker Government his precondition that he must lead it is ridiculous.
Yes. Grieve clearly said he would talk to Corbyn about the idea but that Corbyn as PM was a non starter.
Which I think is exactly the right approach for all who support in principle the idea of a GNU.
Mr. Alex, I believe a credulous person called Guto Bebb [apologies if I misremembered the name] is a Conservative MP who supported the idea of Corbyn as a temporary PM, before apparently recanting his lunacy.
Guto Bebb vies with Mark Francois to be the most stupid member of the Parliamentary Conservative party.
Guardian headline claims (essentially) "LibDems isolated as even Tories show willingness to support Corbyn as PM".
As far as I can make out there are no Tories who have shown willingness to support such a plan? They have shown willingness to pursue the plan of an alternative Government, but none have said they will support Corbyn.
And if Corbyn's idea is genuinely to lead a one issue Caretaker Government his precondition that he must lead it is ridiculous.
Yes. Grieve clearly said he would talk to Corbyn about the idea but that Corbyn as PM was a non starter.
Which I think is exactly the right approach for all who support in principle the idea of a GNU.
Guto Bebb came pretty close to supporting the idea yesterday did he not? But as the previous thread header pointed out 1 is not close to enough.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
Recruitment numbers seem to be pretty good. The problem is retention.
And, who would want to be a soldier, when your political masters are quite prepared to throw you under the bus to placate the people you fought against?
Indeed.
Further I was discussing military numbers and recruiting with a senior army officer recently. He indicated that the sense of malaise in the forces was palpable. Experienced personnel felt considerably undervalued by government who were prepared to run down numbers to critical levels to the extent that defence was viewed as a necessary evil rather than a primary function of government.
Possible scenario: Corbyn calls VoNC. VoNC passes. Negotiations begin. Becomes clear there is no viable alternative. Johnson (secretly) celebrates, whilst publicly decrying those who are putting the British public through another unwanted election. Election writs on the verge of being triggered.
Parliament votes VoC in HMG. Johnson deflated. Has to go through no deal Brexit with no Parliamentary majority.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
BiB - When have the Tories ever been anything other than soft on crime?
Guardian headline claims (essentially) "LibDems isolated as even Tories show willingness to support Corbyn as PM".
As far as I can make out there are no Tories who have shown willingness to support such a plan? They have shown willingness to pursue the plan of an alternative Government, but none have said they will support Corbyn.
And if Corbyn's idea is genuinely to lead a one issue Caretaker Government his precondition that he must lead it is ridiculous.
Yes. Grieve clearly said he would talk to Corbyn about the idea but that Corbyn as PM was a non starter.
Which I think is exactly the right approach for all who support in principle the idea of a GNU.
Guto Bebb came pretty close to supporting the idea yesterday did he not? But as the previous thread header pointed out 1 is not close to enough.
No I suppose the clue is in the name - national unity. If politicians are fighting like cats in a sack over pre-talks for talks it's not a good sign.
Corbyn's blinder-playing I think will come to be seen as not unity-ish especially if (big if) people listen to the reasons it is being dismissed.
Mr. Alex, I believe a credulous person called Guto Bebb [apologies if I misremembered the name] is a Conservative MP who supported the idea of Corbyn as a temporary PM, before apparently recanting his lunacy.
Guto Bebb vies with Mark Francois to be the most stupid member of the Parliamentary Conservative party.
PT: Swinson is absolutely right to rule out Corbyn as PM. All polling shows that this is a man not just unacceptable to Parliament but unacceptable to the country. This is the point Swinson should be making more forcefully. Installing him as PM as a means of avoiding Brexit is therefore madness, even more so if done on the basis of calling an immediate election.
Suppose he becomes PM. Polling shifts almost immediately and shows significant shift to Tories as Conservative remainers/anti no dealers desert the Libdems (and remember Johnson is officially “committed to a deal”). It is clear that the Tories will run riot in the planned election.
Corbyn reneges-on pledge to call an election (and possibly there isn’t 2/3 support for it in the Commons). Challenges Parliament to chuck him out knowing only alternative is election and Brexit. (All this assumes EU has actually given him an extension).
What do they do? Once again all remainers have managed to do is delay the increasingly inevitable. And given us Corbyn as PM to boot.
God forbid the Lib Dems should try to prevent No Deal if it damages their poll ratings.
After all, the whole point of saying that opposing Brexit was their top priority was to give their poll ratings a boost!
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
Recruitment numbers seem to be pretty good. The problem is retention.
And, who would want to be a soldier, when your political masters are quite prepared to throw you under the bus to placate the people you fought against?
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
This is the problem
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
Guardian headline claims (essentially) "LibDems isolated as even Tories show willingness to support Corbyn as PM".
As far as I can make out there are no Tories who have shown willingness to support such a plan? They have shown willingness to pursue the plan of an alternative Government, but none have said they will support Corbyn.
And if Corbyn's idea is genuinely to lead a one issue Caretaker Government his precondition that he must lead it is ridiculous.
Yes. Grieve clearly said he would talk to Corbyn about the idea but that Corbyn as PM was a non starter.
Which I think is exactly the right approach for all who support in principle the idea of a GNU.
Guto Bebb came pretty close to supporting the idea yesterday did he not? But as the previous thread header pointed out 1 is not close to enough.
No I suppose the clue is in the name - national unity. If politicians are fighting like cats in a sack over pre-talks for talks it's not a good sign.
Corbyn's blinder-playing I think will come to be seen as not unity-ish especially if (big if) people listen to the reasons it is being dismissed.
Let's face it this Parliament can agree on almost nothing. It is really not fit for purpose and the sooner it is dissolved the better. Hopefully a significant number of the muppets will not be in the next Parliament, whatever the outcome of the election.
Swinson: "there is no point in pursuing an alternative "caretaker" Government under Corbyn, a man who will not be supported by Parliament, is unacceptable to the British people (highly relevant if to be immediately be followed by a General Election), and cannot be trusted to limit his adoption of such a position to avoiding Brexit".
"Crypto Tory who isn't serious about averting Brexit"
Corbyn: "Any alternative caretaker Government must be led by me"
"Genuine patriot who will do whatever it takes"
A blind man on a galloping camel can see that Corbyn can't lead the anti no deal coalition but that shouldn't be the point. She's allowed an irrelevance to become the story. I'm sure she'll learn but she should have known that one simple message is always the way to go.
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
This is the problem
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
You've backed Ken Clarke then? You are wrong in any case. We need someone who will accept purdah terms as already mentioned by Corbyn.
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
This is the problem
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
Does anyone think that enough Brexit-inclined Labour MPs would support - say - Ken Clarke? Or even - say - Harriet Harman?
Mr. Alex, I believe a credulous person called Guto Bebb [apologies if I misremembered the name] is a Conservative MP who supported the idea of Corbyn as a temporary PM, before apparently recanting his lunacy.
Guto Bebb vies with Mark Francois to be the most stupid member of the Parliamentary Conservative party.
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
This is the problem
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
You've backed Ken Clarke then? You are wrong in any case. We need someone who will accept purdah terms as already mentioned by Corbyn.
Purdah stops once the election is over. But the PM carries on in power.
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
This is the problem
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
Does anyone think that enough Brexit-inclined Labour MPs would support - say - Ken Clarke? Or even - say - Harriet Harman?
If it's Harman or No Deal, then yes I think they would.
Network Rail 16/1 Ordnance Survey 16/1 NATS Holdings* 20/1 BBC 25/1 Post Office 25/1 The Royal Parks 55/1 NHS 125/1
(PP)
Who on earth would want to buy the Post Office? It is a defunct business model: they are closing down around the planet.
Unclear how they would judge the NHS bet, as there are three separate organisations. If NHS Wales was sold, but the Scottish and English ones were not, would the bookie honour the bet?
(*air traffic control)
Backing all of them might be a decent bet. Unless inflation really took off, you would have a long time for one of them to come in at a profit (after inflation)
That strategy is good *if* the list is exhaustive. Bookies are often negligent when it comes to clear smallprint.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Sudden currency movements are unhelpful as they can catch out businesses that don't hedge short term currency exposures but which might be quite large in notional value. But right now the global powers are limbering up for an all-out currency war to furiously try and out-devalue each other. That the UK has got in early is on balance a blessing.
The Eurozone's drift towards being a safe haven currency is quite bad news for its members as whole but is compounded by the inability for a given member to devalue against another except through internal devaluation (i.e. wage deflation). We should not forget that the Eurozone crisis wasn't solved but merely deferred.
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
This is the problem
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
Does anyone think that enough Brexit-inclined Labour MPs would support - say - Ken Clarke? Or even - say - Harriet Harman?
If it's Harman or No Deal, then yes I think they would.
Is Harman standing down at next election? If not then Corbyn won’t support her because she would wreck his possibility of becoming PM in a Hung Parliament.
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Our manufacturing is mostly foreign owned and unwilling to take the political risk required to invest to take advantage of the opportunity. Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year. So far under the Brexit cloud the situation has got worse not better in my industry.
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
This is the problem
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
Does anyone think that enough Brexit-inclined Labour MPs would support - say - Ken Clarke? Or even - say - Harriet Harman?
If it's Harman or No Deal, then yes I think they would.
And surely a requirement for a caretaker PM acceptable across party lines is that whoever it might be has clearly to have no interest in being Prime Minister outside of the caretakership ?
Well my preference is still to leave - but only on sensible terms. Bozo's No Deal is just daft. If May had agreed to Labour's suggestions earlier in the year we would have been home and hosed.
But Brexit is a second order issue for me anyway. Any outcome that damages the Tory Party but spares the country will be good. Whether that is Revoke, Extend or Labour Brexit. I guess in that respect I'm fairly close to Jezza's position.
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
This is the problem
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
Does anyone think that enough Brexit-inclined Labour MPs would support - say - Ken Clarke? Or even - say - Harriet Harman?
If it's Harman or No Deal, then yes I think they would.
They might but not sure enough would in defiance of Corbyn.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
If anything Boris is going on a tough law and order policy and putting more money into it too and just because he is not a classical liberal that does not stop him being a populist conservative in the Berlusconi or Trump mode
Mr. Alex, I believe a credulous person called Guto Bebb [apologies if I misremembered the name] is a Conservative MP who supported the idea of Corbyn as a temporary PM, before apparently recanting his lunacy.
Guto Bebb vies with Mark Francois to be the most stupid member of the Parliamentary Conservative party.
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Our manufacturing is mostly foreign owned and unwilling to take the political risk required to invest to take advantage of the opportunity. Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year. So far under the Brexit cloud the situation has got worse not better in my industry.
A succinctly perfect description of the British economy.
Well sure, but it is what it is. So what she needs to do to maximize the (admittedly not overwhelmingly great) chances of making this work is: * Not rule anything out * Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is * Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard * Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
This is the problem
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
You've backed Ken Clarke then? You are wrong in any case. We need someone who will accept purdah terms as already mentioned by Corbyn.
Purdah stops once the election is over. But the PM carries on in power.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show. The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
Yet another reason why the Conservative Party is no longer conservative :
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation. 2. Law and order gone missing in action. 3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree. 4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed. 5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership. 6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter. 7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics. 8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
Recruitment numbers seem to be pretty good. The problem is retention.
And, who would want to be a soldier, when your political masters are quite prepared to throw you under the bus to placate the people you fought against?
The families of murdered, unarmed civilians?
The idea that squaddies are jumping ship (apols for botched metaphor) because psychopathic soldier F isn't being given a free ride is an interesting one.
Well my preference is still to leave - but only on sensible terms. Bozo's No Deal is just daft. If May had agreed to Labour's suggestions earlier in the year we would have been home and hosed.
But Brexit is a second order issue for me anyway. Any outcome that damages the Tory Party but spares the country will be good. Whether that is Revoke, Extend or Labour Brexit. I guess in that respect I'm fairly close to Jezza's position.
The latest polling shows the outcome that most damages the Tories is further extension as the Brexit Party overtakes them and they fall to third, followed by passing the Withdrawal Agreement as the Brexit Party still takes enough Tory votes to give Corbyn a narrow lead.
The outcome that helps the Tories most ironically is No Deal, at least in the short term of a likely autumn general election, as the Brexit Party largely collapses in favour of the Tories and the Tories thus get a clear lead over Corbyn Labour.
So Corbyn is likely to produce the outcome that most helps the Tories and perhaps most damages the country (even if it respects the Leave vote) which would be ironic
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Our manufacturing is mostly foreign owned and unwilling to take the political risk required to invest to take advantage of the opportunity. Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year. So far under the Brexit cloud the situation has got worse not better in my industry.
Does this not rather downplay the significance of the very high value service jobs that have formed the backbone of the UK economy for some time now?
The idea that squaddies are jumping ship (apols for botched metaphor) because psychopathic soldier F isn't being given a free ride is an interesting one.
Only a small fraction of those cases ever gets uncovered and prosecuted. Most transgressions go completely unrecorded so it's not a significant factor for recruitment or retention. Nobody thinks they are going to get caught and they are usually right.
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Our manufacturing is mostly foreign owned and unwilling to take the political risk required to invest to take advantage of the opportunity. Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year. So far under the Brexit cloud the situation has got worse not better in my industry.
Does this not rather downplay the significance of the very high value service jobs that have formed the backbone of the UK economy for some time now?
True but most of those are in financial services and corporate law and accountancy, IT and the media etc and concentrated in the big cities, especially London.
Mind you the situation is not much different in the US where the wealthiest areas are around New York, Boston, LA, DC and San Francisco or indeed France where they are around Paris
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Our manufacturing is mostly foreign owned and unwilling to take the political risk required to invest to take advantage of the opportunity. Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year. So far under the Brexit cloud the situation has got worse not better in my industry.
On topic, not only is the yield curve, low PMIs around the world and GDP contraction sounding very alarming, but also the context of Trade Tariff War and competitive currency devaluation sets it up as a particularly nasty international recession.
Presumably our incompetence mediated currency devaluation doesn't help much either.
Our manufacturing is mostly foreign owned and unwilling to take the political risk required to invest to take advantage of the opportunity. Most of UK jobs outside London are low value ones in basic service industries. We have smart graduates working in call centres taking home less than £20k a year. So far under the Brexit cloud the situation has got worse not better in my industry.
Does this not rather downplay the significance of the very high value service jobs that have formed the backbone of the UK economy for some time now?
True but most of those are in financial services and corporate law and accountancy, IT and the media etc and concentrated in the big cities, especially London.
Mind you the situation is not much different in the US where the wealthiest areas are around New York, Boston, LA, DC and San Francisco or indeed France where they are around Paris
What about the Midlands Engine, Silicone Highway and Northern Powerhouse? :-)
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump and the inverted yield curve
Comments
If he seems to be hurting enough I wonder if they'll even do a deal; It's not like Trump is known for respecting agreements, isn't it better to just keep the pressure on until November and make sure he's replaced with someone more stable?
A majority of voters think the president is racist. I don't think anything like that was true of any previous president, and although the Dems shouldn't let that completely crowd out an economic message it would be weird not to tap the ball into an open goal like that.
https://medium.com/@m0nologuer/the-thick-of-it-review-7ead5f959b1d
https://www.wnycstudios.org/story/trouble-stock-market-us-economy
(Click "listen" below the title; ignore "listen for free" at the top.)
I mentioned this phenomenon the other day and it should really be the number one thing keeping up all political incumbents that want to stay in their jobs. This indicator has been so reliable in recent decades that in all likelihood it could now serve as a self-fulfilling indicator - no portfolio manager is likely to get fired for going risk-off right now.
Trump is stuck with the prescribed election cycle and there's arguably very little policy room left between now and Nov 2020 but to berate the Fed a bit more and keep his fingers crossed. Johnson on the other hand might just get away with it, if he can get Brexit over the line and then go to the country shortly thereafter.
To provide the counterpoint to all this:
https://ark-invest.com/research/inverted-yield-curve
The argument being that we're on the verge of a once per century period of technological disruption that will herald a "deflationary boom". Ergo, the Cassandras are simply not looking far enough back in history when they say yield curve inversion is always bad news. This firm of course predicts the boom will be driven by the sectors it is most heavily invested in, being AI, energy storage, DNA sequencing, robotics and blockchain.
But one should recall that even the supposed golden period during the 19th century Railroad Boom, there were several punishing stock crashes. One might also argue this view misses the demographic drivers that might be as important to yield curve behaviour as anything else:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-guru-who-called-interest-rate-top-in-2018-now-says-yields-could-fall-further-2019-06-12
Suppose he becomes PM. Polling shifts almost immediately and shows significant shift to Tories as Conservative remainers/anti no dealers desert the Libdems (and remember Johnson is officially “committed to a deal”). It is clear that the Tories will run riot in the planned election.
Corbyn reneges-on pledge to call an election (and possibly there isn’t 2/3 support for it in the Commons). Challenges Parliament to chuck him out knowing only alternative is election and Brexit. (All this assumes EU has actually given him an extension).
What do they do? Once again all remainers have managed to do is delay the increasingly inevitable. And given us Corbyn as PM to boot.
https://twitter.com/nbeaudrot/status/1162218885656956928
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/donald-trump-trade-war-white-house-detractors
Heard that before.
Spoiler! It wasn’t.
And if you look at the movement in the polling (Warren’s improvement at the expense of Sanders, for example), the Twitter numbers are pretty well uncorrelated with movement in likely votes.
Augur is kind of a mess right now while they work on the next version but when they mature the decentralized markets are going to be so great.
What time is the Swinson U-turn?
Good article, Mr. Nabavi.
I do think Trump's up against it, whatever happens. His margin of victory last time was wafer thin and assisted substantially by Clinton's idiotic/complacent decision-making on resource allocation.
Not as up as many here on US politics but I find it hard to believe that Trump's maintained let alone increased his electoral appeal with the middle ground of floating voters during the last four years or so.
It's the Democrats to lose.
[Although, that was true of May. And the Remain campaign. And Clinton. So...]
https://twitter.com/libdemlife/status/1162069402478624769
The size of Britain's armed forces has fallen for the ninth consecutive year, new Ministry of Defence figures show.
The Army, the RAF and the Royal Navy have all seen a decline in the number of fully-trained personnel - with the Army experiencing the biggest fall.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-49365599
If Ed Miliband were still Leader of the Opposition then something might be done. But unfortunately the fact that the current Labour leader is very little different from the Prime Minister, has no experience, very little intelligence, zero integrity and is both ambiguous and slippery on the issue he is using to try and take power is more than a bit of a drawback.
The fact that some of the nuttier Corbynistas do not see this and throw around unpleasant personal abuse at those who point it out is depressing but hardly surprising.
Corbyn is a non-starter, but it is good to see the discussions over who should depose Bozo dominate the news cycle.
* Not rule anything out
* Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
* Offer support to Corbyn if he can find the votes from everybody else, which for reasons we all understand will be hard
* Once it turns out that he can't, push him to get behind somebody else
This latest response isn't quite there, but it's close enough.
That was money well-spent.
1. Failure to maintain the defences of the nation.
2. Law and order gone missing in action.
3. Fiscal prudence has become the magic money tree.
4. "Fuck Business" Prime Minister installed.
5 . Unionist traditions undermined by membership.
6. Worldwide reputation for good governance in the gutter.
7. Willing to drag the Queen into party politics.
8. Undermining the conventions of the constitution.
Or was the Scottish Labour wipeout not quite complete in Glasgow?
"Crypto Tory who isn't serious about averting Brexit"
Corbyn: "Any alternative caretaker Government must be led by me"
"Genuine patriot who will do whatever it takes"
Network Rail 16/1
Ordnance Survey 16/1
NATS Holdings* 20/1
BBC 25/1
Post Office 25/1
The Royal Parks 55/1
NHS 125/1
(PP)
Who on earth would want to buy the Post Office? It is a defunct business model: they are closing down around the planet.
Unclear how they would judge the NHS bet, as there are three separate organisations. If NHS Wales was sold, but the Scottish and English ones were not, would the bookie honour the bet?
(*air traffic control)
Unfortunately the yield curve does not stand alone. The silly trade wars, the long term sustainability of excess consumption and excess private debt, the time since the last recession, the instability of China, there are so many indicators that a recession is likely within the next 18 months. Germany is likely to be in recession when the Q3 figures come out although this is so shallow that it would barely be noticeable. The worry is that this becomes entrenched. If it does politicians in office everywhere will struggle.
As far as I can make out there are no Tories who have shown willingness to support such a plan? They have shown willingness to pursue the plan of an alternative Government, but none have said they will support Corbyn.
And if Corbyn's idea is genuinely to lead a one issue Caretaker Government his precondition that he must lead it is ridiculous.
And, who would want to be a soldier, when your political masters are quite prepared to throw you under the bus to placate the people you fought against?
https://www.facebook.com/veryBrexitproblems/videos/1751152808317994/
Which I think is exactly the right approach for all who support in principle the idea of a GNU.
Further I was discussing military numbers and recruiting with a senior army officer recently. He indicated that the sense of malaise in the forces was palpable. Experienced personnel felt considerably undervalued by government who were prepared to run down numbers to critical levels to the extent that defence was viewed as a necessary evil rather than a primary function of government.
Corbyn calls VoNC. VoNC passes. Negotiations begin. Becomes clear there is no viable alternative. Johnson (secretly) celebrates, whilst publicly decrying those who are putting the British public through another unwanted election. Election writs on the verge of being triggered.
Parliament votes VoC in HMG. Johnson deflated. Has to go through no deal Brexit with no Parliamentary majority.
(...Johnson extends article 50...)
Corbyn's blinder-playing I think will come to be seen as not unity-ish especially if (big if) people listen to the reasons it is being dismissed.
After all, the whole point of saying that opposing Brexit was their top priority was to give their poll ratings a boost!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/12/pm-warned-tory-revolt-horrific-defence-cuts/
Support the line that the caretaker is just a caretaker, it doesn't matter who it is
Whoever it is would become Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury, with powers far beyond the role of caretaker.
For that reason it matters very much who it is, and ought to be someone who has no further ambitions, like someone considering retirement...
The Eurozone's drift towards being a safe haven currency is quite bad news for its members as whole but is compounded by the inability for a given member to devalue against another except through internal devaluation (i.e. wage deflation). We should not forget that the Eurozone crisis wasn't solved but merely deferred.
But Brexit is a second order issue for me anyway. Any outcome that damages the Tory Party but spares the country will be good. Whether that is Revoke, Extend or Labour Brexit. I guess in that respect I'm fairly close to Jezza's position.
The idea that squaddies are jumping ship (apols for botched metaphor) because psychopathic soldier F isn't being given a free ride is an interesting one.
The outcome that helps the Tories most ironically is No Deal, at least in the short term of a likely autumn general election, as the Brexit Party largely collapses in favour of the Tories and the Tories thus get a clear lead over Corbyn Labour.
So Corbyn is likely to produce the outcome that most helps the Tories and perhaps most damages the country (even if it respects the Leave vote) which would be ironic
Mind you the situation is not much different in the US where the wealthiest areas are around New York, Boston, LA, DC and San Francisco or indeed France where they are around Paris
UK exports:
2013 £524bn
2014 £520bn
2015 £520bn
2016 £557bn
2017 £618bn
2018 £634bn
2019H1 £325bn
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbh/pn2