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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Former White House Coms Director predicts Trump will quit WH20
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Former White House Coms Director predicts Trump will quit WH2020 race by March
Over the weekend I’ve placed of bets at effectively about 10/1 that Trump will not be the Republican nominee at WH2020. I’ve done this by laying Trump on the Betfair 2020 nominee market. This has been prompted by two developments.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/coolguides/comments/cs1c0f/logical_fallacies_yourlogicalfallacyiscom/
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/what-happened-to-europes-left-from-proletariat-to-precariat/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7369057/Labour-Tory-MPs-opposed-No-Deal-Brexit-plan-radical-new-law-block-it.html
Eh?
"Indecisive and Disorganised" would be nearer the mark.
https://twitter.com/EllenLWeintraub/status/1162474973115666434?s=20
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-tankan-idUSKCN1V80PT
So I don't think comparisons with last time are that valid. However, I do believe he is quite capable of simply not believing the polls, and I don't believe that Scarramouch is much of an expert on character.
"But he hasn't got anything on!" the whole town cried out at last.
The Emperor shivered, for he suspected they were right. But he thought, "This procession has got to go on." So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn't there at all."
Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report being released Monday, said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25% in a survey taken in February. Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38% predict that it will occur in 2020.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-7370479/Economists-survey-34-expect-US-recession-2021.html
Mr. Jezziah, that's the most wonderful post you've ever made.
On topic, I suspect Trump will stand, lose, cry foul and we'll have have a lot of tension about whether he'll accept the result.
This would exclude the commission’s involvement in the same question as 2014 – “Should Scotland be an Independent Country?”
The commission has since ruled out a Yes/No question in the Brexit referendum, instead recommending a Remain/Leave question. This was found to be more balanced after fresh evidence was taken.
A change from Yes/No to a Leave/Remain question could damage the pro-independence movement, with the Yes campaign widely seen as having been successful in conveying a positive message in 2014.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/electoral-watchdog-insists-on-assessing-any-indyref2-question-before-it-is-put-to-voters-1-4986373
The most benign of which would be a slew of Presidential pardons.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/aug/18/marnus-labuschagne-great-for-a-day-concussion-substitute-steve-smith
Post-Brexit, the U.K. will have a historic opportunity to strike a trade deal with one of the world’s fastest-growing regions and prove that it can shed European red tape and protectionism. The key is to rethink the European Union’s misguided policy on palm oil.
In 2017, the European Parliament approved a resolution to phase out and eventually ban biofuels made from palm oil, a major export for Malaysia and Indonesia. Earlier this year, the European Commission limited the types of biofuels from palm oil that can be counted toward Europe’s renewable-energy goals. The restrictions could, despite our best efforts, trigger a trade war with producer nations.
European Union officials justify the ban on environmental grounds. In fact, it’s designed to protect the agricultural industries of a few EU states.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-19/malaysia-s-mahathir-post-brexit-u-k-should-drop-eu-palm-oil-ban
I can just imagine one of his rallies! "Fix" would be the least of the cries, and one way and another that could end up with inciting one of his madder supporters to pick up his AK47 and head for somewhere where he thought there might a lot of Democrats.
No, and hopefully.
The interesting thing about that Fox News poll is only Biden on 50% exceeds the 48% Hillary got against Trump, Sanders matches Hillary's total and Warren and Harris both get lower voteshare thsn Hillary got.
So do not count Trump out yet, if he gets the 46% he got in 2016 out again in 2020 he can certainly win the Electoral College against Sanders, Harris and Warren and maybe even the popular vote too against the latter two.
Against Biden though Trump would have to get more than the 46% he got in 2016 as a 4% popular vote gap rather than the 2% gap he got against Hillary would likely see Biden home, especially as Biden is likely to play better in the rustbelt than Hillary did.
So Scaramucci's comments only really apply in relation to Biden I think
I don't believe for a moment that he will believe he can be humiliated. He knows his base is still solid for him and his rallies continue to be high energy events. Of course he won by fine margins the last time against a poor opponent and he could easily lose but he won't be humiliated.
On the economy a slow down or recession at some point is inevitable. His policies of running a large deficit combined with bullying of the Fed to reduce interest rates have deferred that day, probably at long term cost to the economy. Whether they can continue to defer it to election day is moot but until the nomination process is completed seems pretty safe. At the moment employment is high and growth good, if slowing against international headwinds.
I am struggling to see any arguments in favour of this bet.
If he really does want to pack it in, he'll need a good excuse, one that feeds grievance, blames other people, and gets a lot of attention. Something like:
"I'm being forced to withdraw from seeking reelection because the Deep State are threatening to kill Ivanka"
Back Donald Trump
for £273.58 @ 1.66 to win £180.05
Lay Donald Trump
for £405.00 @ 1.12 liability £48.60
He's extremely obese (More like 300 lbs and 6 foot) whatever his doctor says and is in his 70s . All those concerns over Sanders and Biden are not so acute, they're around 2-1 collectively not 1-10.
So, de Novo 10-1 represents slight value - having Pence green in the presidential market is also correct.
Over time though the odds will of course shorten to 1.01 if nothing happens though.
I'd look at the Iowa caucuses as well. Normally Iowa is reasonably safe Republican, but the China policy have affected the farmers badly regardless of how much subsidy he puts in.
Of course, polls this far out aren't very predictive, but you treat them as if they are just in a very partial way. Now don't take this personally, but I find it fairly tedious.
He summarises the electoral challenge faced by the left - the gulf in culture between the left-wing middle class and its traditional working class base - being exacerbated by the shrinkage in size and influence of the latter and the impact of globalisation on the former. It skips over the additional factor of the growing ethnic mix of the 'disadvantaged' (WWC->WC) on cultural attitude.
He also sets out the intellectual problem that the demise of both communism and the credibility of capitalism has left both socialists and social democrats without a holistic 'world view' upon which to build their platforms.
Overweight, definitely, but not a whale.
Doesn’t that depend on who the Democrats pick?
I think it’s priced about right.
He’d take not restanding as an admission of defeat, and will want his policies vindicated, so I expect him to do so.
If he loses he’ll make Hillary’s post defeat book look like the dictionary definition of humility.
http://firehousestrategies.com/june-2020-survey/
http://firehousestrategies.com/june-2020-survey/
Apologies if you find facts tedious but tough
The polarisation of US politics means that, at worst, the margin of defeat is unlikely to be that large compared to the historical record, and, who knows, maybe he will be anticipating some unconventional assistance during the campaign to sneak home.
The Democrats are really not that far ahead.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/14/trump-technically-obese-doctors-health-1170438
https://www.borisherrmannracing.com/
There was one other president who did not stand for re-election, but there was a rather obvious biological reason for it.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/
That was for you, @Nigelb
The format of the Brexit question seems perfectly reasonable....
https://twitter.com/existentialcoms/status/922243012058480640
Parliament has a choice.
Just look at his track record
If the Democrats want the best chance to beat Trump they need to nominate Biden, otherwise there is a strong chance of a Trump re election
It seems for our far left there is negligible difference to Nazis based on your chart. Drop the justifications and acknowledge the left's antisemitism it is:
Willing to use violence: Yes/Yes
Free Speech: No/No
Jews: No/No
It makes me so annoyed at the smug satisfaction of those extremists as they cry pretend tears that we have this chaos when this is exactly what no dealers and ultra remainers wanted. They wanted and needed utter chaos to get their way and their phoney regret at the crisis is insulting.
(Not that I think it would have really affected the result.)