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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Season of Myths
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Season of Myths
As we approach witching hour, a handy cut-out and keep guide to some of the more common Brexit myths.
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Surely parliament passing repeated extensions (assuming the EU agree) is in practice little different than revoking Article 50?
I suppose there may be other myths. For instance I really think there are people who believe we are living in the 19th century---only that wouldn't be how they put it.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/19/chicken-boxes-home-office-knife-crime
Actually Algeria also left.
"A charity for people with Tourette's syndrome has asked a comedian to apologise for his award-winning joke made at the Edinburgh Fringe festival."
It strikes me that the Remainers' best argument should be, to misuse another of Johnson's favourite politician's quotes, "No-Deal is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. It [will only be] the end of the beginning. " No-Deal Brexit for years of Brexit turmoil.
It doesn't say much for contemporary comedy if that's the best they can offer, and still less if they think they're funny.
That's it.
You don't decide to leave the EU. You cannot leave the EU; not without mutilating yourself, or signing up to colonial status.
The idea that Britain was "sovereign" in the EU was, it turns out, another big fat myth - this time a Remainer myth. It should be added to Cyclefree's excellent list.
Con 4/7
Lab 7/4
LD 6/1
But for all its institutional weaknesses, corruption and maladministration, the odds of that happening are the same as the odds of England getting Steve Smith for a duck.
Might the Corbyn-McDonnell microphone seizing be deliberate misinformation? Wouldn't it in fact suit them really rather neatly if Britain does disastrously crash out on Oct 31st? The shitshow which will follow will see the total annihilation of the Conservative party for a generation and Labour would inevitably rise in the polls. Especially neat when you consider that the Corbynites don't really like the EU anyway.
There. I've released my cynicism to the ether.
The only real winners in that scenario would be the Liberal Democrats and SNP, who have both at least been clear and consistent, and Sinn Fein.
1. A50 will be extended again, covertly facilitated by Johnson.
2. There will be a general election in November.
3. The Tories will gain most seats but will be unable to form a government. The BXP will gain zero seats.
4. Labour will form a minority government with C&S from LDs and SNP.
5. Labour will then negotiate a permanent CU WDA which will not get the support of parliament.
6. There will then be a referendum with the permanent CU WDA versus Remain.
7. Labour will campaign for Remain.
8. Remain will win and we will revoke A50 in mid 2020.
9. The minority Labour government will turn out to be successful and transformative.
I note that the Greens and minor candidates got well over 1000 votes in Kensington last time. I wonder, if they don’t stand, could Labour maybe hold off the Tories?
No doubt there were people who thought - for good reason, in, say 100AD - that the Roman Empire was eternal. They were wrong. Rome fell.
And the EU, whatever it is, is certainly not the Roman Empire straddling the world with a singular purpose.
And I do not think there will be an attempt to extend. This is the crunch moment. Unfortunately having rejected rather a good deal and made no preparation for any other scenario we are not in a good situation to meet it.
He said I was lack-toes intolerant.
You go wrong with point 1 (and get sillier). Just how will Boris "covertly facilitate" an extension of A50?
But then, she won last time.
Waiting for it to fall, or indeed inciting rebellion in the hope of making it fall (check out the Gallic Empire) turned out not to be a profitable venture. To quote Keynes, in the long run we are all dead. But short of invading Hungary with Russian troops, there is no way the EU will collapse in time to be of any help in this situation.
Timing.
If you peas...
The Dark Ages
Wouldn't it have been easier for you if the EU referendum had never happened and you could claim the moral high ground and moan from afar?
Though after the Romans left, we did become a failed state.
I wish I could reciprocate with something as nasty and horribly undermining and personal to the likes of Farage, Rees Mogg, Johnson, Banks, Cummings and Gove..but what could I do?
Have a good evening.
*bangs table*
We're all fixated on how Brexit is going down, NOW (and for good reason. No Deal is a mildly terrifying prospect)
But how will it be seen in five or ten years, by the rest of Europe? I think it poses huge problems for the EU, however it turns out. Because....
Imagine Brexit is a surprising success (maybe take some acid first). The threat here is clear: if Britain can make Brexit work, then why shouldn't italy make Italexit work, or Hungary do a Hungquit? Especially as the EU tries to integrate even further? The EU could lose members quite quickly, in that scenario.
But, of course, Brexit is more likely to be bad news for Britain. Perhaps really bad news. And yet, even there it will be grim for the EU, too.
How so? Because, across Europe, other nations will look at the UK and think: "even the Brits - who were not in the euro, not in Schenghen, never fully committed, a rich powerful country - could not successfully exit the EU. They were, in effect, trapped: which means that me, us, my country (inside the euro etc) we are even more trapped".
Ancient nations do not like being trapped. No one wants to be in a room without a door. A bad Brexit will cause enormous psychological strains, in the EU, over time.
It is, quite neatly, a good description of Rome at the end of the Western Empire. Say 400AD. It is not a good description of Rome at the height of her puissance. Three centuries earlier.
Which means the EU is about to fall to the Goths.
And if Boris fucks up Brexit then the BXP could eat the Tory vote and 26-30 would perhaps be enough for Corbz to form a wobbly minority govt. From there they can build.
So perhaps yiur comparison is more accurate than you would like.
So that is you told John
And Corbyn wants to be PM
An intriguing echo. We await Hengist and Horsa.
He is obviously seeking to win the public debate. Sky did a vox pops from Corby following Corbyn's speech and Boris received considerable backing for his stance from those interviewed. The mood seemed to be lets get this done
Feb 1974 didn't go too well for Ted Heath iirc. But Wilson managed to nudge up to a majority in the election held on October 10th of the same year.
It's all about the clocks. Even today.
Which would suit Cummings admirably.
We're all doomed, so we might as well enjoy the drama.
A longer transition period. 3 years? 4? In which both sides endeavour to do their best to find a solution to the Irish Border issue, knowing that No Deal is a clear risk as the alternative.
Then, at the end of that, if they HAVEN'T found a solution, Britain will legislate a referendum for Northern Ireland, in which the Northern Irish themselves can choose which they prefer: to remain in the CU and SM, or to cut EU/Irish ties and allow a Border.
It is quite obvious Ulster would go with the former (in fact it would put Ulster in an enviable position, without all the risk of a proper Border poll and the anger that comes with).
There. I've just solved Brexit. Next.
We, on the other hand, lost a referendum to w*nkers! Can't even find a decent campaign to lose a referendum to! We're ruled by effete arseholes! It's a shite state of affairs to be in, SeanT, and all the fresh air in the world won't make any f*cking difference!"
Who is gonna look at Brexit right now and think Ooh. I want that, it looks fab, let's do it here as well? This reaction, of improved support for the EU, was entirely predictable.
I'm positing the psychological dynamics 5-10 years hence. And I am right.
Something not scanning with all this.
I think Johnson wants an election after he has delivered Brexit with a deal. And Corbyn wants an election before any Brexit has been delivered.