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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By a small margin punters think the next general election will
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By a small margin punters think the next general election will happen before Brexit
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Silly market - silly prices
I don't follow Mike's train of thought here. Sitting Labour MPs facing deselection will surely want a snap general election, because in those circumstances there won't be time for a lengthy process to deselect them. Vote to bring down Johnson's government, vote for an alternative Corbyn led government (safe in the knowledge that MPs of other parties won't) and then vote against any alternative government not led by Corbyn.
If you reckon that you have a better prospect of holding your seat than of seeing off a deselection process, that's the most assured route to another 5 years on the back benches.
Presumably there’s a government until there’s another government, same as happens in the U.K.?
Conte says this government stops here. Given there are various possibilities arising from new coalitions inside the Parliament I am not sure that there will be a continuing government.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1163763558871703552?s=21
And debt is back to record levels as a share of GDP: https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-debt-to-gdp
Not the backdrop that most governing parties would be looking for for an election.
And reducing risk by laying brexit date before Jul-Dec 19 at 1.66
If an election happens before brexit, but not called til recess is over, and no preparation during campaign, then new parliament might be more opposed to brexit and even if not some delay for preparations is likely. Can lose both bets but seems unlikely and could win both.
On one view its remarkable that we are the ones who are leaving...
https://twitter.com/markdurkan/status/1163830998985035776
Troubles is terrifying. I had to re-read the posts of Thompson & Briskin earlier, as I assumed they were spoofs.
The grim truth is they were not: these guys are seemingly for real.
Britain is savagely weakened by leaving the EU. It becomes a trade taker rather than a trade (rule) maker. It takes a poorer path, too, with the commensurate loss of influence that implies. Finally there is the literally existential threat posed by Celtic independence.
A reasonable Brexit outcome sees Britain (or England) falling to down the table - closer to an Italy. Still a player, but largely ignored on the big issues.
Someone will be along shortly to suggest I somehow hanker after Empire. I don’t. I merely note that a (relatively) weaker Britain means a (relatively) stronger Russia, and relatively stronger German/French leadership of the EU - neither of us which is particularly appetising to me from a small c, liberal perspective.
So we surrendered to the IRA.
Bang on about the GFA all you want. Varardkar certainly does.
And just cancel Brexit while you're at it.
*SHRUG*
I’m talking about liberalism/authoritarianism.
we are the 21st ranked country worldwide by population in 2019. By end of the centrury well be about number 50 as African and Asian countries overtake us. Nobody will be much interested in our values or indeed Europes. Theres a new global order on the make and its time we adapted ourselves to it.
If the UN is correct there will be over 200 million Ugandans by 2100. Maybe its time to rethink our relations with them.
New research suggests that instead of 50 years' worth of gas, it might be just five.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49395658
I take it you think the Irish are stupid ?
All countries are exceptional.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_exceptionalism
Edit:my bad-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonderweg
Our growth rate over that period, 2% p.a., is nothing remarkable. Italy's has been 0.5% p.a.
It's ironic that someone who claims to love Europe cant accept its variety.
Festina lente
800 million Nigerians will be laughing at you by 2100
The AfD are looking like topping the poll in the Landeswahl in Saxony and Brandenburg. The issue inst money, both places have been showered with cash. its about propsects and self respect.
have you thought of night classes ?
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1163828287489150978
who's this "we" supernat ?
In a previous job we had an Italian subsidiary, which accepted cash for a contract from a company in a country barred by sanctions. (They thus broke two laws - regarding sanctions and cash payments over a certain size.) This was then used to pay other suppliers in cash. The head of the unit called me to tell me about this, not because he wanted to come clean, or anything like that, but to make sure I knew about it so it could be included in his sales numbers for his bonus.
I have another anecdote about trying to collect an unpaid debt from a large and rich corporate who, it turned out, relied on the Italian courts sometimes taking decades to enforce debts - especially when the debtor company was owned by someone with significant influence. (And this wasn't just a negotiating tactic. They simply wouldn't pay.)
Without deep structural reform of labour markets, the legal system, and a new attitude towards corruption at all levels, Italy's economy will struggle. Combine that with appalling demographics, and a terrible debt burden, and it's hard to see Italy performing well.
Last point: Italy would do better free of the Euro. But it would also see sky high interest rates outside the Euro to compensate for inflation and depreciating currency. The government - and people - are caught between the rocks and the ocean.
And, of course, their politicians serve them ill. Blaming external forces is easier than admitting that Italy's problems are mostly of their own making. They could have chosen reform, as Spain and Portugal did, but that would have been painful. Instead they chose to bumble along, getting into ever worse debt, and allowing the painful stagnation to continue.
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1163844261021999104?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1163756027524898816
Scottish Labour however is polling under 20% on every poll (SLab got 24% even in 2015 and 27% in 2017) and in the odd poll has even fallen behind the Scottish LDs and would lose every Labour seat in Scotland bar Edinburgh South on current polls.
So whiile it would be correct to say the situation is dire for Scottish Labour it is far from dire for the Scottish Tories
My point is simply that, to the extent that the U.K. has helped maintain a liberal order in Europe (and to a much lesser degree globally), our ability to do so is significantly weakened by leaving the EU.
If you don’t (any many don’t) believe the U.K. influence as any particular merit to it, then you won’t much care. Weirdly, many Brexiters seem to fall into this category, despite covering themselves with the flag (a red, white and blue Brexit indeed).
Average solicitor earns almost £10,000 less than a train driver
https://www.legalcheek.com/2019/08/average-solicitor-earns-almost-10000-less-than-a-train-driver/