‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’
The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".
Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.
Even a converted shipping container at least puts a roof over their heads so they are not homeless
Even by the standards of the Tory Party that is a criminally heartless comment.
No it isn't, as sleeping in a converted shipping container with a bed and room is better than sleeping on the streets.
Once again action with the Tories, whinging with Labour
As you are only going to consider the number of people seeping rough: The record under the Conservatives regardng numbers of people sleeping rough has been a scandal (1979-1997 and 2010-). The Labour government had a specific policy to move rough sleepers into some kind of sheltered accommodation.
Which of the following scenarios do you favour most? (1) Leave No Deal: 23 (2) Leave TM Deal: 9 (3) Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13 (4) Remain/Revoke A50: 33
Not surprised don't know was 22%! Personally I would go for 2, 3, 1, 4, most days.
‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’
The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".
Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.
Even a converted shipping container at least puts a roof over their heads so they are not homeless
Lol
Stunning. I suppose the poor souls sleeping rough under a railway arch, or in a hostel, are not homeless because there's a roof over their heads.
As long as you are in a hostel you are not technically homeless no as you have shelter, you may not have permanent accommodation but that is a different matter
A hostel is not a home!
Nor is a flat on some measures, they are accommodation though
So you agree a hostel is not a home. Someone staying in a hostel for homeless people is homeless.
No they are not for that period as they are in accomodation with a roof over their heads
Hold on! You say that a hostel is not a home but people staying in a hostel are not homeless?
Obvious outlier. Change UK has put on an infinite increase from 0 to 1%.
Do they still exist? Are they an actual thing after the defections to the Lib Dems and the even more independent grouping? I will be amazed if they have any candidates who are not sitting MPs and maybe not even many of them.
‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’
The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".
Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.
Even a converted shipping container at least puts a roof over their heads so they are not homeless
Lol
Stunning. I suppose the poor souls sleeping rough under a railway arch, or in a hostel, are not homeless because there's a roof over their heads.
As long as you are in a hostel you are not technically homeless no as you have shelter, you may not have permanent accommodation but that is a different matter
A hostel is not a home!
Nor is a flat on some measures, they are accommodation though
So you agree a hostel is not a home. Someone staying in a hostel for homeless people is homeless.
No they are not for that period as they are in accomodation with a roof over their heads
Hold on! You say that a hostel is not a home but people staying in a hostel are not homeless?
It can be a home as it has a roof as per the synonym on the dictionary definition on the last thread
So 55% of voters still back Brexit in some form, only 33% want Revoke and Remain
Where do you get 55% from?
55 is the largest Fibonacci number that is also a triangular number and more importantly it is bigger than 50.
So if we are picking numbers at random, why not? Me? I would have gone for 53 or 59...
Don't answer if this is too complicated for barely numerate people like me but how can you be confident that an infinite chain like Fibonacci numbers doesn't have larger triangular numbers in it?
‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’
The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".
Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.
Even a converted shipping container at least puts a roof over their heads so they are not homeless
Even by the standards of the Tory Party that is a criminally heartless comment.
No it isn't, as sleeping in a converted shipping container with a bed and room is better than sleeping on the streets.
Once again action with the Tories, whinging with Labour
As you are only going to consider the number of people seeping rough: The record under the Conservatives regardng numbers of people sleeping rough has been a scandal (1979-1997 and 2010-). The Labour government had a specific policy to move rough sleepers into some kind of sheltered accommodation.
As the current Tory government is now doing anyway
Also from Kantar backing for second referendum Should the final deal be put to public vote:
Yes: 52 No: 29 DK: 19
This is a bit tricksy because it doesn't say what alternative to the deal the public get to vote on. If you support Remain you probably want to vote on rejecting it and revoking, whereas some of the people who support No Deal probably want to vote on rejecting it and leaving without it.
So 55% of voters still back Brexit in some form, only 33% want Revoke and Remain
Where do you get 55% from?
Apologies 45% combining all the Leave options but still 12% more than revoke and remain
But you are still adding things together which may not be accurate. Those results are equally:-
Leave (No or TM Deal) - 32% Have a relationship with the EU - 46%
Staying in the Single Market and Customs Union would still be leaving the EU as per the referendum question, however most Remainers prefer remaining in the EU to that and most Leavers prefer No Deal or at most the Withdrawal Agreement, it may be the median option but it is not necessarily the majority option
The reliability of recalled 2017 vote is becoming a huge issue in polling methodology. It is noticeable that the three firms reporting big Conservative leads in August all have mechanisms that can either adjust for identified false 2017 recall amongst their panel (YouGov, Kantar) or use other means of weighting that avoid the issue of false recall (Ipsos MORI).
Kantar's adjustments for false recall increased the Conservative lead from 8% to 14%. This from Kantar:
"We have re-analysed all the polls we have conducted since the last general election to identify how reports of voting behaviour have changed since June 2017. This study found a decline in the probability that a 2017 Labour voter will now report having voted Labour in that election. If the outcomes from this study are ignored when we weight our data, 2017 Labour voters will be over-represented in the sample. Consequently, we now incorporate the results from this study when constructing the target political profile we weight our sample to. Without this change to our approach, the headline voting intentions would have been Conservative (40%), Labour (32%), Lib Dems (15%) and Brexit Party (5%)."
I'm puzzled by the disparity between the Tories' 42% and the derisory 23% who favour No Deal, especially since No Deal appears to be the outcome Boris and his government are championing with relish. Might it be that Boris is still on probation, and people simply regard his No Deal rhetoric as an acceptable ruse to secure a deal? Dangerous if so - there are a lot of people out there being groomed for disappointment and, dare I say it, a sense of betrayal.
So 55% of voters still back Brexit in some form, only 33% want Revoke and Remain
Where do you get 55% from?
Apologies 45% combining all the Leave options but still 12% more than revoke and remain
But you are still adding things together which may not be accurate. Those results are equally:- Leave (No or TM Deal) - 32% Have a relationship with the EU - 46%
Staying in the Single Market and Customs Union would still be leaving the EU as per the referendum question, however most Remainers prefer remaining in the EU to that and most Leavers prefer No Deal or at most the Withdrawal Agreement, it may be the median option but it is not necessarily the majority option
But the Conservatives under ABDPJohnson are hell-bent on leaving the EU without a safety net of any kind. This is why I think the Conservatives are stupid, and destined to lose every election they fight.
‘Shipping containers used to house homeless children’
The Children's Commissioner for England says that as well as the 124,000 children officially homeless, a further 90,000 are estimated to be "sofa-surfing".
Her report tells of families housed in repurposed shipping containers and office blocks, and whole families living in tiny spaces.
Even a converted shipping container at least puts a roof over their heads so they are not homeless
Even by the standards of the Tory Party that is a criminally heartless comment.
No it isn't, as sleeping in a converted shipping container with a bed and room is better than sleeping on the streets.
Once again action with the Tories, whinging with Labour
As you are only going to consider the number of people seeping rough: The record under the Conservatives regardng numbers of people sleeping rough has been a scandal (1979-1997 and 2010-). The Labour government had a specific policy to move rough sleepers into some kind of sheltered accommodation.
Im sorry but that is complete nonsense, unless an individual had a "Priority Need" for Housing then Councils had no responsibility. There was no "Sheltered Accomodation" or anything similar under Labour.
re post at end of last thread by Rural Voter and comments. I am in the same boat. Same set up and I can access all other sites I want to go to. The only thing I can't do is access the threads on PB. I have to use another computer. Only the last few weeks this has been on and off. For the last week it is a constant failure.
So 55% of voters still back Brexit in some form, only 33% want Revoke and Remain
Where do you get 55% from?
Apologies 45% combining all the Leave options but still 12% more than revoke and remain
But you are still adding things together which may not be accurate. Those results are equally:- Leave (No or TM Deal) - 32% Have a relationship with the EU - 46%
Staying in the Single Market and Customs Union would still be leaving the EU as per the referendum question, however most Remainers prefer remaining in the EU to that and most Leavers prefer No Deal or at most the Withdrawal Agreement, it may be the median option but it is not necessarily the majority option
But the Conservatives under ABDPJohnson are hell-bent on leaving the EU without a safety net of any kind. This is why I think the Conservatives are stupid, and destined to lose every election they fight.
They aren't as they have most of the No Deal vote and most of the Leave with May Deal vote.
The LDs now have most of the Revoke and Remain vote leaving Labour with maybe most of the Leave but stay in SM and Customs Union vote and a minority of the Revoke and Remain vote but there are only 13% for SM and CU to 32% for Leave with No Deal or May's Deal and 33% for Revoke and Remain
I'm puzzled by the disparity between the Tories' 42% and the derisory 23% who favour No Deal, especially since No Deal appears to be the outcome Boris and his government are championing with relish. Might it be that Boris is still on probation, and people simply regard his No Deal rhetoric as an acceptable ruse to secure a deal? Dangerous if so - there are a lot of people out there being groomed for disappointment and, dare I say it, a sense of betrayal.
HYUFD I think you are being perverse. I think it is clear to everyone the difference between a home and accommodation. When I go on holiday, make a trip, a student in halls, prisoner in a cell, etc, etc I am in accommodation. None of these are 'homes'. Clearly people sleeping rough are a higher priority than those not sleeping rough, but equally people should not, where possible, be in temporary accommodation. They should have a permanent residence. What normal people call their home.
So 55% of voters still back Brexit in some form, only 33% want Revoke and Remain
Where do you get 55% from?
Apologies 45% combining all the Leave options but still 12% more than revoke and remain
But you are still adding things together which may not be accurate. Those results are equally:- Leave (No or TM Deal) - 32% Have a relationship with the EU - 46%
Staying in the Single Market and Customs Union would still be leaving the EU as per the referendum question, however most Remainers prefer remaining in the EU to that and most Leavers prefer No Deal or at most the Withdrawal Agreement, it may be the median option but it is not necessarily the majority option
But the Conservatives under ABDPJohnson are hell-bent on leaving the EU without a safety net of any kind. This is why I think the Conservatives are stupid, and destined to lose every election they fight.
They aren't as they have most of the No Deal vote and much of the Leave with May Deal vote. The LDs now have most of the Revoke and Remain vote leaving Labour with maybe most of the Leave but stay in SM and Customs Union vote and a minority of the Revoke and Remain vote but there are only 13% of those compared to 32% for Leave with No Deal or May's Deal and 33% for Revoke and Remain
That sounds a bit complicated, Mr HYDYF. I suggest you take it back to your Con HQ syndicate to clarify your argument.
The "Leave with May Deal" is by definition not a "drop out of the EU without a safety net of any kind" arrangement. Not that many people would be so foolish. Therefore the ABDPJohnson project is a loser.
HYUFD I think you are being perverse. I think it is clear to everyone the difference between a home and accommodation. When I go on holiday, make a trip, a student in halls, prisoner in a cell, etc, etc I am in accommodation. None of these are 'homes'. Clearly people sleeping rough are a higher priority than those not sleeping rough, but equally people should not, where possible, be in temporary accommodation. They should have a permanent residence. What normal people call their home.
The key feature is whether an individual has a priroty need for housing under the terms of the Housing Act. An 18 year old pregnant girl living at home with her parents and whose parents ask her to leave would have a priroty need for housing and the Council would have to house her that day. A man sleeping rough for 5 years with no significant medical conditions or being a care/armed services leaver would have absoultely no priority for housing. Mad I know but that is the way it is.
I'm puzzled by the disparity between the Tories' 42% and the derisory 23% who favour No Deal, especially since No Deal appears to be the outcome Boris and his government are championing with relish. Might it be that Boris is still on probation, and people simply regard his No Deal rhetoric as an acceptable ruse to secure a deal? Dangerous if so - there are a lot of people out there being groomed for disappointment and, dare I say it, a sense of betrayal.
This is the most sensible explanation I have seen to explain why anybody who is not in the 23% no deal group would support the Tory’s. They believe no deal is project fear to make the EU give way and also that Johnson said it was a one in a million chance that we leave without a deal. If and when chickens come home to roost and we are in the aftermath of a bad no deal then they will be lucky to poll 23%
I'm puzzled by the disparity between the Tories' 42% and the derisory 23% who favour No Deal, especially since No Deal appears to be the outcome Boris and his government are championing with relish. Might it be that Boris is still on probation, and people simply regard his No Deal rhetoric as an acceptable ruse to secure a deal? Dangerous if so - there are a lot of people out there being groomed for disappointment and, dare I say it, a sense of betrayal.
This is the most sensible explanation I have seen to explain why anybody who is not in the 23% no deal group would support the Tory’s. They believe no deal is project fear to make the EU give way and also that Johnson said it was a one in a million chance that we leave without a deal. If and when chickens come home to roost and we are in the aftermath of a bad no deal then they will be lucky to poll 23%
I think they’ll do a little better than that, but the crucial element that there are theoretical deal supporters who will be disappointed and that will have an impact is a relevant one.
I'm puzzled by the disparity between the Tories' 42% and the derisory 23% who favour No Deal, especially since No Deal appears to be the outcome Boris and his government are championing with relish. Might it be that Boris is still on probation, and people simply regard his No Deal rhetoric as an acceptable ruse to secure a deal? Dangerous if so - there are a lot of people out there being groomed for disappointment and, dare I say it, a sense of betrayal.
Very easy to understand. For example @HYUFD says he is a Tory. But he vehemently dislikes the idea of a no deal brexit. Which is the flagship Tory policy.
So this number/discrepancy is of those Tories who have not yet realised, for likely self denial reasons, that they, like @HYUFD, are not actually Tories.
I'm puzzled by the disparity between the Tories' 42% and the derisory 23% who favour No Deal, especially since No Deal appears to be the outcome Boris and his government are championing with relish. Might it be that Boris is still on probation, and people simply regard his No Deal rhetoric as an acceptable ruse to secure a deal? Dangerous if so - there are a lot of people out there being groomed for disappointment and, dare I say it, a sense of betrayal.
Tories mopping up the Don't Knows?
Government policy is unambiguous that it wants a deal. No deal people (wrong in my opinion) will back the Tories as both the best - probably only - chance of leaving at all, and certainly the only chance of leaving with their first preference. Some No Deal people probably have limited rationality, but most would put leaving with a deal ahead of Remain/Revoke etc.
One other point. The data on final vote. Usually most people say yes to any question asking if they want a choice on something, with the famous exception of questions about the place of HM the Queen in our public life, where they don't (and quite right too IMO). I suspect the answer would be different if phrased as 'Second Referendum'.
That is seriously worrying. We know Trump loves those who flatter him. There is a significant section of the Evangelical base who consider Trump to be the literal fulfilment of prophecy signifying the final battle of the End Times leading to the Second Coming and Judgment Day. He seems to be buying into this. And I am quite serious here.
I'm puzzled by the disparity between the Tories' 42% and the derisory 23% who favour No Deal, especially since No Deal appears to be the outcome Boris and his government are championing with relish. Might it be that Boris is still on probation, and people simply regard his No Deal rhetoric as an acceptable ruse to secure a deal? Dangerous if so - there are a lot of people out there being groomed for disappointment and, dare I say it, a sense of betrayal.
Very easy to understand. For example @HYUFD says he is a Tory. But he vehemently dislikes the idea of a no deal brexit. Which is the flagship Tory policy.
So this number/discrepancy is of those Tories who have not yet realised, for likely self denial reasons, that they, like @HYUFD, are not actually Tories.
Maybe Kantar got the data from 'which is your preferred supermarket' mixed up with their voting data. Whereas I can quite believe each of their categories on their own when compared the results seem incongruous.
So 55% of voters still back Brexit in some form, only 33% want Revoke and Remain
Where do you get 55% from?
55 is the largest Fibonacci number that is also a triangular number and more importantly it is bigger than 50.
So if we are picking numbers at random, why not? Me? I would have gone for 53 or 59...
Don't answer if this is too complicated for barely numerate people like me but how can you be confident that an infinite chain like Fibonacci numbers doesn't have larger triangular numbers in it?
I understand the proof runs to 10 pages of densely argued number theory. I would suggest that is too complicated for most numerate people!
Edit: I see Tissue_Price has now provided a link to the proof.
Vote in the 2017 General Election (unweighted weighted)
Scotland - Labour 1% 1% Scotland - Conservative 2% 1% Scotland - SNP 2% 2% Scotland - Other 1% 1% Scotland - No vote 2% 3%
(final page of the Polling Methodological note –August 2019)
So, only 2% of the sample voted SNP at GE 2017, but the official, published VI for the SNP for the next GE is 5%.
Now, I know that we are doing well, but more than doubling support is just not feasible. That would take us to over 60% of Scottish VI.
I’m afraid that, as far as Scotland is concerned, we’ll have to ignore this poll. I suspect that they have hit an unusually rich seam of recent SNP converts. (Maybe interviewed far too many Scottish students for example?)
I made the mistake of reading the first page of this, which seemed ok, and then skimmed down to p2. At which point I gave up. I will take your word for it.
So 55% of voters still back Brexit in some form, only 33% want Revoke and Remain
Where do you get 55% from?
55 is the largest Fibonacci number that is also a triangular number and more importantly it is bigger than 50.
So if we are picking numbers at random, why not? Me? I would have gone for 53 or 59...
Don't answer if this is too complicated for barely numerate people like me but how can you be confident that an infinite chain like Fibonacci numbers doesn't have larger triangular numbers in it?
Because there are only 4 Fibonacci numbers that are triangle numbers - 1, 3, 21 and 55 - see https://oeis.org/A039595
The proof is quite complex, but can be dug out online.
Vote in the 2017 General Election (unweighted weighted)
Scotland - Labour 1% 1% Scotland - Conservative 2% 1% Scotland - SNP 2% 2% Scotland - Other 1% 1% Scotland - No vote 2% 3%
(final page of the Polling Methodological note –August 2019)
So, only 2% of the sample voted SNP at GE 2017, but the official, published VI for the SNP for the next GE is 5%.
Now, I know that we are doing well, but more than doubling support is just not feasible. That would take us to over 60% of Scottish VI.
I’m afraid that, as far as Scotland is concerned, we’ll have to ignore this poll. I suspect that they have hit an unusually rich seam of recent SNP converts. (Maybe interviewed far too many Scottish students for example?)
Government policy is unambiguous that it wants a deal. No deal people (wrong in my opinion) will back the Tories as both the best - probably only - chance of leaving at all, and certainly the only chance of leaving with their first preference. Some No Deal people probably have limited rationality, but most would put leaving with a deal ahead of Remain/Revoke etc.
Regarding the pejorative comment on the supposed limited rationality of some No Deal supporters, I will resist the urge to make a pejorative comment about Remainers in reply.....
The YouGov tracker question isn't really any longer fit for purpose, because the preferred option the Government is arguing for (a renegotiated agreement prior to 31st October) isn't included in any of the options included. Supporting "No Deal" implies it is your preference, not the fallback option. In addition, "No Deal" implies that the position reached on 31st October would be a long term position, as opposed to a shorter term state after which further negotiations would take place.
A more balanced question which summed up where we are at now politically would be a binary choice between the options to:
"Leave the EU on 31st October whether or not a long term agreement on the UK's future trading arrangements with the EU is in place by that date"
"Remain in the EU beyond 31st October by revoking the UK's previous decision to leave the EU"
Me too. Brexit zealotry is rampant on both sides. Clearly an election won by a Party vowing to hold a referendum would be legitimate. A referendum before either an election or actually Leaving wouldn't be. Or am I alone in this?
One of the funny things about reading the comments elsewhere on the HS2 review is how some people want it cancelled so that *their* area gets increased funding. Scotland, the north, Wales, the southwest and even the southeast have been proposed as *better* places to spend the money. It's almost as if HS2 is an unlimited pot ...
It also rather ignores that tens of billions are being spent on upgrades and enhancements to the network all over the country in CP6 alone (2019-2024).
Our first maths lecture at university dealts with traffic flow and how it was similar to water and air flow. The lecturer pointed out that we should be grateful for traffic lights as they sped up the traffic flow. That was many decades ago. It seems from the article that if human behaviour could be controlled we'd all get where we were going faster, so I suppose that is something we can look firward to with autonomous cars?
One of the funny things about reading the comments elsewhere on the HS2 review is how some people want it cancelled so that *their* area gets increased funding. Scotland, the north, Wales, the southwest and even the southeast have been proposed as *better* places to spend the money. It's almost as if HS2 is an unlimited pot ...
It also rather ignores that tens of billions are being spent on upgrades and enhancements to the network all over the country in CP6 alone (2019-2024).
I despair of this country. HS2 is going to canned on the back of yet another populist load of misinformation. The money will then remain unborrowed and not one of these other proposals will get it.
We just can't do it can? People new infrastructure. We used to be able to, but now we can't.
Me too. Brexit zealotry is rampant on both sides. Clearly an election won by a Party vowing to hold a referendum would be legitimate. A referendum before either an election or actually Leaving wouldn't be. Or am I alone in this?
Well zealotry is one thing practicality is another. Is having Corbyn as the caretaker PM whose only job is to extend A50 and arrange for an election more likely to attract enough MPs compared to one headed by someone (anyone) else - e.g. Ken Clarke.
That is seriously worrying. We know Trump loves those who flatter him. There is a significant section of the Evangelical base who consider Trump to be the literal fulfilment of prophecy signifying the final battle of the End Times leading to the Second Coming and Judgment Day. He seems to be buying into this. And I am quite serious here.
He's closing the Fed Reserve before he launches that Last Battle though.
Our first maths lecture at university dealts with traffic flow and how it was similar to water and air flow. The lecturer pointed out that we should be grateful for traffic lights as they sped up the traffic flow. That was many decades ago. It seems from the article that if human behaviour could be controlled we'd all get where we were going faster, so I suppose that is something we can look firward to with autonomous cars?
Our first maths lecture at university dealts with traffic flow and how it was similar to water and air flow. The lecturer pointed out that we should be grateful for traffic lights as they sped up the traffic flow. That was many decades ago. It seems from the article that if human behaviour could be controlled we'd all get where we were going faster, so I suppose that is something we can look firward to with autonomous cars?
I honestly thought Brexit-fatigue would benefit the Remain camp. I thought the longer it went on the more people would say 'bugger it, let's stay'. It does appear more people are inclined to say 'bugger it, let's have it over and done with and get out'.
I certainly see more of the latter in my work-related meetings. Most people just want the whole sorry saga over with.
I honestly thought Brexit-fatigue would benefit the Remain camp. I thought the longer it went on the more people would say 'bugger it, let's stay'. It does appear more people are inclined to say 'bugger it, let's have it over and done with and get out'.
I certainly see more of the latter in my work-related meetings. Most people just want the whole sorry saga over with.
People haven't yet realised that it will be a long way from over if we leave, particularly with no deal.
I honestly thought Brexit-fatigue would benefit the Remain camp. I thought the longer it went on the more people would say 'bugger it, let's stay'. It does appear more people are inclined to say 'bugger it, let's have it over and done with and get out'.
I certainly see more of the latter in my work-related meetings. Most people just want the whole sorry saga over with.
People haven't yet realised that it will be a long way from over if we leave, particularly with no deal.
Yes. The let's just leave crew have no idea what is to follow but then again it doesn't really matter. Most of them no more care about the details of any FTA than they do about the mechanics of the internal combustion engine in theRange Rover Evoque they have on the never never.
We will have left so for them it will be job done. And I have a certain sympathy for that. They were and are ignorant of what he EU actually is so why would they care about terms of trade or balance of payments and so forth.
One of the funny things about reading the comments elsewhere on the HS2 review is how some people want it cancelled so that *their* area gets increased funding. Scotland, the north, Wales, the southwest and even the southeast have been proposed as *better* places to spend the money. It's almost as if HS2 is an unlimited pot ...
It also rather ignores that tens of billions are being spent on upgrades and enhancements to the network all over the country in CP6 alone (2019-2024).
I despair of this country. HS2 is going to canned on the back of yet another populist load of misinformation. The money will then remain unborrowed and not one of these other proposals will get it.
We just can't do it can? People new infrastructure. We used to be able to, but now we can't.
Meanwhile in China...
...they have built 25000km of high speed rail lines since 2009. High speed rail is seen as the future of medium-range transport in just about every country in the world outside the US. The UK is way behind - countries such as Morocco and Turkey have more high speed lines than we do.
That is seriously worrying. We know Trump loves those who flatter him. There is a significant section of the Evangelical base who consider Trump to be the literal fulfilment of prophecy signifying the final battle of the End Times leading to the Second Coming and Judgment Day. He seems to be buying into this. And I am quite serious here.
He's closing the Fed Reserve before he launches that Last Battle though.
I honestly thought Brexit-fatigue would benefit the Remain camp. I thought the longer it went on the more people would say 'bugger it, let's stay'. It does appear more people are inclined to say 'bugger it, let's have it over and done with and get out'.
I certainly see more of the latter in my work-related meetings. Most people just want the whole sorry saga over with.
I think the mood music from Downing Street will have done that. I have no time for Boris's view that it just needs more optimism and determination.. but in short-term domestic politics, he may well be right. And sadly, it seems politicians give zero f*cks beyond that.
If it did come to pass that we leave and he wins a stonking majority very soon off the back, he'd be happy to do five and a bit years, see off Corbyn and McDonnell into retirement (please god), and leave the next Labour leader to negotiate closer ties with Europe. If there is a very shaky period in between, or indeed he's forced into the closer ties before five years are up, I'm not sure he'll care that much.
That is seriously worrying. We know Trump loves those who flatter him. There is a significant section of the Evangelical base who consider Trump to be the literal fulfilment of prophecy signifying the final battle of the End Times leading to the Second Coming and Judgment Day. He seems to be buying into this. And I am quite serious here.
He's closing the Fed Reserve before he launches that Last Battle though.
"Starting a trade war with Europe would truly be a lose-lose proposition, even more so than our trade war with China. It’s the last thing either America or Europe needs. Which means that Trump is probably going to do it."
That is seriously worrying. We know Trump loves those who flatter him. There is a significant section of the Evangelical base who consider Trump to be the literal fulfilment of prophecy signifying the final battle of the End Times leading to the Second Coming and Judgment Day. He seems to be buying into this. And I am quite serious here.
He's closing the Fed Reserve before he launches that Last Battle though.
Comments
(1) Leave No Deal: 23
(2) Leave TM Deal: 9
(3) Leave but stay in SM/CU: 13
(4) Remain/Revoke A50: 33
Not surprised don't know was 22%! Personally I would go for 2, 3, 1, 4, most days.
So if we are picking numbers at random, why not? Me? I would have gone for 53 or 59...
Leave (No or TM Deal) - 32%
Have a relationship with the EU - 46%
Kantar's adjustments for false recall increased the Conservative lead from 8% to 14%. This from Kantar:
"We have re-analysed all the polls we have conducted since the last general election to identify how reports of voting behaviour have changed since June 2017. This study found a decline in the probability that a 2017 Labour voter will now report having voted Labour in that election. If the outcomes from this study are ignored when we weight our data, 2017 Labour voters will be over-represented in the sample. Consequently, we now incorporate the results from this study when constructing the target political profile we weight our sample to. Without this change to our approach, the headline voting intentions would have been Conservative (40%), Labour (32%), Lib Dems (15%) and Brexit Party (5%)."
Spookily 55 is the 10th triangular and fibonacci number.
x(10) = x(9) + x(8) = 34 + 21 = 10(10 + 1)/2 = y(10) = 55
I suspect that has something to do with the proof but not sure what.
The LDs now have most of the Revoke and Remain vote leaving Labour with maybe most of the Leave but stay in SM and Customs Union vote and a minority of the Revoke and Remain vote but there are only 13% for SM and CU to 32% for Leave with No Deal or May's Deal and 33% for Revoke and Remain
2. If you are staying in a hostel, you are not homeless.
3. The hostel must therefore stand empty.
The "Leave with May Deal" is by definition not a "drop out of the EU without a safety net of any kind" arrangement. Not that many people would be so foolish. Therefore the ABDPJohnson project is a loser.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164138796205654016?s=21
So this number/discrepancy is of those Tories who have not yet realised, for likely self denial reasons, that they, like @HYUFD, are not actually Tories.
One other point. The data on final vote. Usually most people say yes to any question asking if they want a choice on something, with the famous exception of questions about the place of HM the Queen in our public life, where they don't (and quite right too IMO). I suspect the answer would be different if phrased as 'Second Referendum'.
A very interesting article about traffic jams.
https://www.smartmotorist.com/traffic-jams
However you can find it here: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.388.3006&rep=rep1&type=pdf
There is a significant section of the Evangelical base who consider Trump to be the literal fulfilment of prophecy signifying the final battle of the End Times leading to the Second Coming and Judgment Day.
He seems to be buying into this.
And I am quite serious here.
Edit: I see Tissue_Price has now provided a link to the proof.
https://twitter.com/TerribleMaps/status/1163934325785747457
This is mind-boggling:
Vote in the 2017 General Election
(unweighted
weighted)
Scotland - Labour
1%
1%
Scotland - Conservative
2%
1%
Scotland - SNP
2%
2%
Scotland - Other
1%
1%
Scotland - No vote
2%
3%
(final page of the Polling Methodological note –August 2019)
So, only 2% of the sample voted SNP at GE 2017, but the official, published VI for the SNP for the next GE is 5%.
Now, I know that we are doing well, but more than doubling support is just not feasible. That would take us to over 60% of Scottish VI.
I’m afraid that, as far as Scotland is concerned, we’ll have to ignore this poll. I suspect that they have hit an unusually rich seam of recent SNP converts. (Maybe interviewed far too many Scottish students for example?)
http://www.kantar.com/public/download/documents/286/Brexit+Barometer+Tables+August+2019.pdf
https://news.sky.com/story/sky-views-remainers-can-no-longer-take-yes-for-an-answer-11790224
The proof is quite complex, but can be dug out online.
http://www.watching-grass-grow.com/
The YouGov tracker question isn't really any longer fit for purpose, because the preferred option the Government is arguing for (a renegotiated agreement prior to 31st October) isn't included in any of the options included. Supporting "No Deal" implies it is your preference, not the fallback option. In addition, "No Deal" implies that the position reached on 31st October would be a long term position, as opposed to a shorter term state after which further negotiations would take place.
A more balanced question which summed up where we are at now politically would be a binary choice between the options to:
"Leave the EU on 31st October whether or not a long term agreement on the UK's future trading arrangements with the EU is in place by that date"
"Remain in the EU beyond 31st October by revoking the UK's previous decision to leave the EU"
Trump will lose in 2020.
Trump will refuse to vacate the White House.
Death.
Taxes.
Best way to get him out IMO will be some sort of injection. Wakes up back at Trump Tower with the bedroom door locked. Effective. Humane.
It also rather ignores that tens of billions are being spent on upgrades and enhancements to the network all over the country in CP6 alone (2019-2024).
It seems from the article that if human behaviour could be controlled we'd all get where we were going faster, so I suppose that is something we can look firward to with autonomous cars?
We just can't do it can? People new infrastructure. We used to be able to, but now we can't.
Meanwhile in China...
Is having Corbyn as the caretaker PM whose only job is to extend A50 and arrange for an election more likely to attract enough MPs compared to one headed by someone (anyone) else - e.g. Ken Clarke.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1164174364994080768
https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/how-does-economy-work
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MONIAC
I honestly thought Brexit-fatigue would benefit the Remain camp. I thought the longer it went on the more people would say 'bugger it, let's stay'. It does appear more people are inclined to say 'bugger it, let's have it over and done with and get out'.
I certainly see more of the latter in my work-related meetings. Most people just want the whole sorry saga over with.
Hmm.
We will have left so for them it will be job done. And I have a certain sympathy for that. They were and are ignorant of what he EU actually is so why would they care about terms of trade or balance of payments and so forth.
If it did come to pass that we leave and he wins a stonking majority very soon off the back, he'd be happy to do five and a bit years, see off Corbyn and McDonnell into retirement (please god), and leave the next Labour leader to negotiate closer ties with Europe. If there is a very shaky period in between, or indeed he's forced into the closer ties before five years are up, I'm not sure he'll care that much.
"Starting a trade war with Europe would truly be a lose-lose proposition, even more so than our trade war with China. It’s the last thing either America or Europe needs. Which means that Trump is probably going to do it."
Brexit and a EU-US trade war?
Great. Just great.